Recent comments by dryfly
Greece and Turkey should just tell the EU to F themselves and go back to the important role they've played in Europe for the last 500-1000 years: Europe's drop box for smugglers. They could probably pay the bonds off easy that way.
Sicily would be sooooo pissed.
JimPortlandOR wrote:
Other European officials warned that more severe steps still might be necessary.
They want them out - it is the only explanation.
josap
shill wrote:
ANALYSIS-Criminal probe trail going cold at MF Global
| Agricultural Commodities
| Reuters
I am surprised they can't at least find a scapegoat given all the confusion at MF.
The most important part of any business plan - is the exit strategy.
And leaving money on the table insures you do exit - fight about the last penny and you chase the price down to bottom.
The NAHB 2012 International Builders’ Show is currently being held in Orlando.On Friday, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke will speak at 12:30 PM ET: "Housing Markets in Transition". The speech will be streamed live at NAHB: Chairman Bernanke Speaks to Builders
CR you ever been to the builders show? Never been there myself. I've heard from some of the window people its pretty nutz.
josap wrote:
I saw Obama speak at a construction site. Lots of snipers on top of cranes & scaffolding. In plain view.
And ones you don't see no doubt - redundancy.
Bad Dawg Bobby wrote:
Beautiful Sunny day in the low 80's.
Spent the afternoon at the alpost, great lunch, nice conversation with a beautiful lady.
Sitting in the sun watching the sail boats go in and out of the harbor.
What euro crisis?
I spent all day looking at part files - nice to know somebody had fun.
dr munch wrote:
Tanta went to Illinois State University. Plenty of fine schools out there, though not if you want to be on the supreme court.
I personally like Normal - stop there to eat often. My family doc would not approve.
More on Tanta and cram down - she also said that even if cram downs were permissible they shouldn't be allowed IF the bank can clearly demonstrate they are better off financially from foreclosure. Her opinion - and I think it has been confirmed - was that is rarely the case.
Cram down if appropriately applied with careful analysis of the borrowers credit worthiness, overall financial position, market conditions - etc - should be an option available to BK judges. It wasn't and still isn't.
This settlement just incentivizes banks to write down in cases of alleged abuse - it does not change bankruptcy process one iota.
Mike in Long Island wrote:
But I could obviously be completely wrong.
She was all for cram downs but only as part of a workable holistic bankruptcy process - a complete fresh start. If in the end the mortgage was still to much of a burden then you weren't helping the homeowner by keeping them in the home - better for them to move on, rent and really get a fresh start.
What she wasn't for was NOT even considering the possibly of cram downs in bankruptcy. That didn't even help banks except in appreciating markets - in depreciating markets foreclosures [as we now see] cost everyone more.
It was a complex distinction and both the pro and con cram down people piled on - they didn't get the subtlety of the argument.
Rob Dawg wrote:
Yes, indeed. Thanks but too early. UC tuition payments come first.
I thought UC was constitutionally tuition free for Cali residents. Did I miss something?
greenchutes wrote:
A little bit is the operative phrase. I do think fetishization of academic success can go too far, but it is preferable to the overwhelming culture of anti-intellectualism that dominates our great nation.
So why you hate football?
greenchutes wrote:
Make no mistake, that Hanford garbage will end up in Portland.
I know a project engineer who worked on the clean up - its a real mess.
Comrade Kristina wrote:
A winery? I don't think I would bet 174 million on that right now.
If you had like $6 billion would you even notice?
Mike_PNW wrote:
Not my experience..if you can figure out a way to add value to the organization you become..invaluable.
If they can even measure it.
Nuckin Futs wrote:
Elliot "Client Nine" Spitzer
Romney prolly have a better shot at winning if he was Client 10... had a little more fun.
Rickkk wrote:
"The Florida restaurant lobby is pushing a bill that would drop the minimum wage for the state's restaurant servers and other tipped employees from $4.65 to $2.13 an hour...."
Amateurs - they should have to pay the restaurateur to 'rent' the rights to be able to serve the table and collect the tips.
Pikers.
Tom Stone wrote:
The Broker's meeting today was interesting. Quite a few mentions of squatters, vandalism and theft in empty homes and a reminder to be careful when approaching them. These aren't "Occupy" folks, these are whackjobs and lowlifes, so far. Also several agents mentioned new listings and said "I am not sure about the price". These were agents who have as good a feel for the market as anyone, people who have been agents here for a decade or more and who really know the market. I have found that when very similar properties have very dissimilar listing prices that it is an indication of a price correction. I have seen two instances of that in the last two weeks. One involved two side by side homes and one involved two identical units in a PUD. The price differentials were about 15%.
So then, they weren't Facebook giddy?
nova wrote:
So who are they going to be competitive with? Bhutan?
Syria - silly.
The Obama administration made a full-court press over the past four days to secure the support of key state attorneys general, including those from Florida, California and New York.All three overcame misgivings about the plan in recent days, people familiar with the situation said.
Sleeping with horse heads tends to change one's mind.
Outsider wrote:
I like to listen to the fools right here.
I talk to myself - does that count? Twice?
greenchutes wrote:
but the important point is that i had the flush and was greedy, going for the ace.
It is the way it is supposed to be. The bank on it. Those huge casinos don't fund themselves.
greenchutes wrote:
I actually hit a royal flush on an idiot jacks-or-better machine at the airport.
Soooo... was it blown on hookers? A house? Or SRS?
So 73.6% of the sales were distressed, and over half were purchased with cash.
"Honey I just won a big pay out at the slots.... woooo hooo... let's go buy a house with it!"
shill wrote:
Petroleum demand ‘stinks’ - The Tell - MarketWatch
Price signals work.
GDD9000 wrote:
No no no, I'll help you. Think Nebraska, hypocrites, where you eat in Vegas. Think! Think!
Cornhuskers? Gingrich? In-N-Out?
eeeeewwwww....
GDD9000 wrote:
Wrong lesson, but A for effort.
Really. Everyone knows it buy low sell high and lever to the earholes.
BarleyReturns wrote:
Knowing the purchasing dept. of this company, maybe thats why they went BK.
Actually - most of these kinds of things AREN'T Wally's fault. The small co bites on the bait [huge order] and doesn't fully appreciate how ugly the ramp up is and how much up front cash is required. Their AP explodes while waiting for the AR to back fill the hole. Its too slow coming.
Insufficiently funded rapid growth puts more companies into BK than will declining sales - at least over the short run. That is why I always question companies on both their sales growth expectations AND their ability to support roll out. Small companies are notorious for trying to eat the elephant in one bite.
ac wrote:
I would say economics is psychological and political.
You say to-may-to I say to-mah-to...
Firemane wrote:
So, to summarize ... idiocy determines sales.
That and commissions.
ac wrote:
Yes... but then the argument you are making would invalidate most if not all of modern economics.
It would if you assumed economics was actually 'scientific'. I don't. I say it is more philosophical and political. So even IF the outcome worked totally against what you suggest Hayek would have predicted [according to your bias as he isn't alive to speak for himself] I still couldn't PROVE you wrong. I might think you wrong but my basis would be no more scientific than yours. It would be two fools arguing.
No matter what the outcome - nothing could be proven given the limited number of trials, the larger number of variables and they being essentially unknowable & confounded.
If there was one thing the Austrians brought to the discussion it is that a lot of this stuff is unknowable in a clean mathematically predictive sort of a way.
Speed wrote:
No mention of relinquishing sovereignty to the bankers.
Fine print.
ac wrote:
If every time you took the rooster away the sun didn't rise and every you put it back the sun did rise you would have a strong scientific theory on your hands.
If you could do it a LOT and control all other factors - all.
But we don't get to do that do we? We control no factors - just observe the ones we can and only get to roll the dice once.
Not much of a scientific experiment.
Firemane wrote:
Um ... cost of materials and labor determines house prices. Real median income just determines number of sales.
Cost of material and labor determines the cost to build. Nothing more. Incomes, credit availability and margin requirement/expectation determine the number of sales.
It is common for buyers to pay way over cost in booms and sellers to accept way below cost in busts. For awhile. In the 'long run' it should balance out. In theory. You know what they say about the long run.
BTW I work with some small biz who worry about their covenants more than any other single item - it is the 900lb gorilla on steroids and crack in the room.
shill wrote:
Elk Grove Village-based First American Bank, which has $2.78 billion in assets, is "calling the loan" despite Sparrer having "never missed a payment," Graves said.
Interesting, the calling in the loan part.
Loan covenants are the time bomb in every small biz...
ac wrote:
That's why I say such an outcome would lend weight to his theory but not strictly confirm it.
It would not lend weight - not when factors are hopelessly confounded and numerous. It is like saying the rooster crowing lends weight to the sun rising. Coincidence does not prove causality and especially true when # variables >> # outcomes. In this case we have a gazallion variables and one outcome - what will happen. Tough to say anything other than what happens happens.
BTW if it works against your personal bias it doesn't disprove it for the very same reasons... variables >> outcomes.
ac wrote:
Well if he's right we should get some forewarning from Europe.
Not really - way too many moving pieces and factors to tease out. It will tell us nothing that precise or specific - just that its F'ed Up.
adornosghost wrote:
He added some much needed ideas to the discussion.
Yup.
Mary wrote:
< wipes tears >
That would not be me Mary - think long arms [short legs].
adornosghost wrote:
That corporate pimp Walker may be in trouble.
The scuttlebutt I heard is he would have been - had he ran against himself. Unfortunately [or fortunately from his perspective] he runs against a real human alternative and from what I hear is as flawed as he is.
WISS...
adornosghost wrote:
I would not bet on that one.
Me either - and I do not think Hayek is a moron - just as trapped in his own paradigm as the rest of us are in our own.
adorno - got a link for that? TIA.
[Ya it kinds sums things up]...
steinly wrote:
We all have a bit of Loki in us...
The Scandinavian side of my family all seem to be Saami - from the part of Norway where they are common and we 'look' the part. So maybe a bit more in my kin.
EDIT - apple typo
Mook wrote:
Like I said - if this stuff had been around in my college days I can't imagine the consequences.
Crack cocaine wouldn't have been invented.
ac wrote:
Ours held for a remarkably long-time. And it does seem that the heyday of the US corresponded to the period prior to the Big Snap in 1971.
The big snap was driven by our decline not the cause of our decline. Nixon had to close the window [stop the gold drain] and devalue because our standard of living was declining and had to decline as hundreds of millions of new consumers competed for the resources we previously had to ourselves [thinking recovering Europe & Japan].
We could have kept the standard IF at that time we agreed to massive wage and corporate earnings declines in nominal - instead we devalued and had those standards of living inflated away. Same result and as unavoidable either way.
We are going through the same issues now except instead of hundreds of millions of additional competitors for the resources we now have two billion additional competitors. Gradual adjustments although painful too are a lot better than snap adjustments.
Enjoy the ride.
scone wrote:
2 words: water balloon.
Thinking the same thing.
sporkfed wrote:
Perhaps austerity implies a declining velocity of money whereas deficits don't actually
mean the money is in circulation.
If it is in Ben's vaults we can pretty much assume it isn't in circulation.