Recent comments by mr_clueless
Rajesh wrote:
A recession could have started in May, but I'm expecting a slight improvement in industrial production in June and July so the official start of the recession will be in August. This quarter is pre-recession.
Betting against CR...when are ya gonna learn?!
Sometimes I'm clueless, and sometimes I'm sarcastic, but this time I mean it...CR you're a genius!
Does soylent write these poems after the failures or does he have a bunch of them written up already? Maybe soylent already has the the list of banks which will be failing.
adornosghost wrote:
For all you graph readers, can you spot the trend?
CO2 Now | CO2 Home
Have no worry my friend. Keep polluting and buying carbon offsets and feel good about it. Life is meaningless anyway, so just party while you can.
That makes seven failed banks in two weeks (so far) - feels like old times!
This is GOOD...we're getting rid of all the stragglers. The fit ones like JPM, BAC, and WFC can then lead us into the future, unencumbered.
Looks like we have more good news in the pipeline. I smell money...
Greece: Election results expected at 2:30 PM ET Sunday, Unemployment Rate hits Record 22.6%
Is this U3 or U6?
Outsider wrote:
I can't believe Dimon is only 56. He looks old.
I think Blankfein is the same age. He looks old too.
They've packed in more "fun" than most people do in a 100 years. 
Just tried to book a hotel room for early next week in the south bay. Almost anything half decent is booked. The only things available are the motel 6's and the super high-end $600/night rooms.
Take that for the recession mongers!
can the markets stomach all the good news? or will start going up like crazy one of these days?
What's going on? There's some crazy energy in the air.
mp wrote:
The US economy can no longer be analyzed in isolation from the global economy.
There is no "decoupling."
Maybe not the stock market...but are we having riots and bank runs here?
dryfly wrote:
OK? Not if you are still unemployed [many are] and likely to remain so maybe for the rest of their life [many will] and the people who do find work will be underemployed [many many of these folks will be]?
But that has been a known factor all along. Both CR and Bernanke agree on that one...that unemployment will remain high for many years to come. There is no magic bullet for that. One can argue that in the absence of a boom, unemployment would never have gotten that low to begin with.
Most people look at one bad thing and say "that should be good enough" to bring the economy down. CR looks at tons of data and distills the information to make macro-level analysis, which is really how it should be done. Otherwise, one is in day-trader territory.
The way I see it, if the economy is a patient that got sick, is sick, or whatever, then CR is running labs and analyzing those reports. His analysis tells if the patient's health is stable, improving or headed down. Now the patient can have a heart attack and die (which is what ZH is predicting and has been predicting for years), but until then (if it ever happens), this model seems to be the best.
Rob Dawg wrote:
Retail gasoline deliveries for March tell me summer auto sales will not be good. Declining gas prices will also relieve some of the impetus to buy new more fuel efficient vehicles.
Declining gas prices frees up money for people to use on other things.
dryfly wrote:
There is not going to be a huge rebound here - some but not a lot. Hint to economists - this puppy is structural NOT just cyclical.
Does it really matter that there's not a huge rebound? People are talking recession here...as long as that is avoided, which it will if it doesn't decline and grows ever so slowly, we should be OK.
Rajesh wrote:
I don't ever remember starting a recession when unemployment was this high.
I guess it will be a learning experience.
Are you betting against CR? You should know better!
dryfly wrote:
CR suggested at the time it would be a minor hassle and guess what - he was right.
CR is a genius.
mp wrote:
Mr. Clueless, why did you say you're clueless?
Just curious.
Don't know anything. For example, I fell for the line that CRE would be worse than RRE.
Rob Dawg wrote:
There is always income producing assets like real estate.
Comes with principal risk. And unlike I-bonds, you have to pay to maintain real-estate and pay property tax.
BTW, what happened to the CRE bust that was supposed to make the RRE bust look like a walk in the park?
Jonathan wrote:
Rob Dawg wrote:
I see nothing unusual about a TIP yield mildly negative. That's just a bet that inflation indexing will adjust yields up. No more unusual than paying a few pips above asset value for an ETF for instance.
Isn't it an admission that there is no safe place for your money, or anyone elses money?
Best hedge against inflation after I-Bonds (but I-Bonds are very limited in what one can buy). If I could put 50% of my money in I-Bonds, I would.
Yay...some good news.
And lack of bank failures is even more good news.
CalculatedRisk wrote:
Vic, no change. I'm resistant to change - just ask my lady friend
Good to know! You are one of few, but I admire that because you're the only one the made good calls on the way down and then again on the way up.
We can't fall into recession now. It's pain and slow inflation time. BTW, is there a dollar value for what the cars cost back then vs now. Even though fewer cars are sold, if they cost more per unit they will have a positive contribution to the GDP.
scone wrote:
Big Swinging Dick. According to Michael Lewis. I highly recommend Liar's Poker, it's funny and sad.
haha
Is scone around? What is BSD? (I think of Unix, but I doubt that is what was meant.)
My read of the analysis is that we are still very much on the path to recovery. Did I get it right?
Not so good news.
But CR was right about this one...he's incredible at predicting this stuff!
Guy at the bar told me about these
Victim of 'Miami Zombie' is a longtime homeless man - Tampa Bay Times
Easton man infected with HIV spits in police officer's face, records say | lehighvalleylive.com
He told me one more but I forgot what it was.
Crazy stuff going on out there.
But I'm definitely not kidding about the difference between the blog entries and the comments...those are just poles apart.
ResistanceIsFeudal wrote:
It's easy to find fault with the cow... right up until it stops giving milk
Hope you realize I was kidding. It might be enough to pay for domain name registration.
I used to think NSA had something to do with security until I started reading this blog.
Doc Holiday wrote:
When will CR see the light?
He's already seen the light...he's spends all day blogging for free. Wait...he probably gets money everytime I click on a link to build my own BMW, which is about once every 5 minutes...not to mention all those HCN tiles. Maybe he'll buy something big by leveraging all that money a la JPM.
Why is it that the posts on this blog are full of good news, but the comments section is full of negative stuff...and not just about the economy, but about things like the pope? When are you guys gonna learn to be like CR??
yay...more good news. onward to dow 14k.