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OMG, someone found the light bulb switch
CoreLogic/S&P/Case-Shiller "Index"? What are we calling it now and are there still real economists involved or is it just pick the best number for clicks and coverage?
Thanks Professor, coming from you... justify my actions over the past year.......Duh!
YEp, empty nesters are a heavy drive on higher end housing.
But really, the demand for new homes is a pittance of the lows over the last 45 years.... THIS is not much demand.
The remaining housing stock is crap for the most part, helped by 5 years of distress and lack of maintenance. let teh banks own that and future land lords.
I'm keying in the 3rd sales tax increase this year in California to my construction estimates (on top of basic increases, impacts of fuel prices, fuel tax increases, etc.)
CA increased sales taxes on 1/1 at 0.25%
Lumber received a special tax of 1% added on 1/1
Sales taxes again increase at the local level 4/1 1/2 %
Think that will total 9-1/2% on lumber.
thank you all so much for burning the tax revenue.... I know those high six figure govt. retirees need our help.
RE: Santa Monica Remodel - aka one wall remaining
This is a really old trick to avoid the costs of tax reassessments, etc. but most of the benefits are long gone. The tax assessor will often look through the trick and reassess the rehabbed at market.... especially if the "value" of the permitted work is >50% of the existing value of the structure.... and lets be honest, most homes needing this kind of work have the majority of value in the land.
The building department will require retrofits that cost much more to do than the cost of beginning with a clean foundation.
Just witnessed a builder dismantle a home over a month by hand, where it would have taken 1-2 days with an excavator.... likely added $20-30K to the bill.
Yup, these highs are so high we've almost reached the lows of the past 45 years.
Conventional sales are up for a few reasons.
Gosh, CR, just read your last post on FNMAE.... my take is the real dilemma for the CEO is "how to maximize my bonus" has has little to do with treasury payback.
I'm a cynic, but bonuses are put in place to encourage certain performance, and sometimes, the people designing that package are working it.
What, are you saying that out beloved Mr. Yun (NAR) has screwed up the data pile only a few months after cleaning it up? SHOCKED
Now all we need is job growth
Nirvana? Dave Grohl is everywhere....
Only in FL....I doubt California's DRE would allow any deposits on an unfunded project.... anyone know different?
Forcasting a 60 day old number? wooo. maybe they'll take my Superbowl bet.
The opportunity to build homes with lumber below the cost of harvest (under $200) aka - the cost of cleaning the parking lot - has passed, but yea, time to crank up the mills and deforestation.
We've got remote zero net energy cabins to build so our supercommuter Prius driving clients can feel good about themselves.
Yes, permit and fee changes as well as code change avoidance,
Seeing a large run in SF luxury home site purchases in December & January, at least escrows opened.... you'll measure it after closing, but there will be more starts in the high end, not for sale.
Always a s***load of permit and housing start manipulation around December/January for tax and profit planning purposes.... multifamily acts different than SF.
wrote on Tue, 2/19/2013 - 7:47 pm (in reply to...)
I have spent quite a bit of time in both.
Lake is by far the scariest.
Yep, start with the inbred, mentally disturbed and violent. Add meth, generic beer and terminal syphilis. And that's in the nice neighborhoods.LAter.
WOW, that's exactly my impression of Lake County.... when I drive by Clear Lake, "Dualing Banjos" plays in my head....
Just goes to show you that idiotic rookie data analysis is more newsworthy than that truth.
Rental real estate must be a new concept to TD Securities.
Bill "...'Just removing multi-family units reduces the "troubling divergence'...."
Elvis wrote on Tue, 2/19/2013 - 2:49 pm
Great news. Many real estate agents have great busts. Otherwise they would never close a deal.
Well, yea, that's part of the fun of working in the field..... but more of a concern is .... how many medical products and drugs are prescribed because of similar skills held by that medical products rep?
The antiquated business model of residential real estate agents and brokerages is the real tax.
Makes a lot of assumptions... that won't happen.
Much of my present business is showing sellers the difference between the Z-estimate and the real value, several times the cost of commission. Next question.
Talked to a soon to be new agent a few weeks ago, CA has a 60+ day lag in processing..... apparently there's never a hurry in CA to create tax generating businesses.
200 failed offers? HES DOING IT WRONG
WTF - L. Yun at NAR - are data blunders annual now?
Don't need no stinkin' business conventions.....
Refis keep profits going to lenders - SURPRISE. Low cost of money, where's the incentive to create business?
He's diverting attention from the real problem. I'm in the business. Employment needs to improve before people create households.
New local investor (yes) in Sacramento has $100 mil+ for single family. The problem is their purchases do not change the issue..... creating paying buyers or tenants.
The nature of the inventory may change from for sale to for rent, but still empty.
Need job formation to fix that.
Tom Stone wrote:
Have I ever mentioned that the search function at my MLS was written by someone waiting at the wrong stop for the short bus?
works for them!
WSJ on solar (including tax credits)
I ran though these numbers a few weeks ago and noticed the quickest paybacks were all about the largest subsidies. Sometimes the loans come from the utility companies (MEW no show) if not small finance companies.
What is HFC?
I have noticed that less remodeling seems to be happening. I have also noticed that a lot of remodeling jobs completed during the early to mid 2000s were at best incomplete, and more usually just the visuals, not the infrastructure.
HFC = Household Finance - a finance company I think is still around. Yes, remodels are way down, some of the labor is doing flips. There is grant and subsidy money in the energy retrofit market, otherwise, solar would have very little grip.
Have noticed that many "remodelers" have moved to lending sources that do not leave a lean on the home.
So you can fully energy retrofit a home (in CA) including HVAC, windows, insulation, reflective roof, spending $30-50K, with no impact on MEW.
Same with kitchen and bath remodelers. Bringing their own sources of financing, like HFC, etc.
Likely the pool builders and anybody with a plan will do the same.
Prior to that, MEW was "get the loan first, find where to spend later"
hey, we'll get right on that.
Yea, at the end of the credit, we dealt with an 8 month slump almost equal to the volume brought forward by the credit. Anybody who bought towards the end of the credit, is underwater still, from a 10-20% price bump that immediately disappeared.
The credit may have helped Moodys - is he talking about his pocketbook?
Another 8 billion gathered by hedge funds for housing. I look at this like car dealers filling their lots in hope that the consumer will show up. Speculative demand.
Michael Burry UCLA Commencement Address
Interesting address - points fingers at both the "power" and the "entitled" made him millions
Why don't they call them house builders?
Better flacks than you lawyers?
NAR - we're reading their forecasts and data again? really?
Builders - they're cocky bastards for the most part - RIP, Dad, but you would agree.
Based on loans processed and that data base? It will lag on the upside as home price increases are pushed by cash transactions and cash paid over appraisal. Should be tested.
I've heard many loan officers are overwhelmed with "prequal" work (that may not produce) - often 20-30 per house as buyers are required to prequal with a seller's preferred lender.
Beware of Fannie's accounting practices and look at their bonus plans.
FNMAE sells homes w/o appraisals and inspections to unsuspecting owner occupant buyers at above market prices - homes that should otherwise be repaired before returning to market - who would loan on such a silly deal? FNMAE.
Kicking the can down the road and hoping for recovery to hide the problem in the portfolio.
Let me put that in plain talk.
While it may look like they're doing a 80% loan, they're actually loaning 100% on the real value and leaving the buyer with a large deferred maintenance bill waiting to happen, I've seen 20-40K waiting. Instant negative equity and large strains on budgets.
Gee, Jamie D is now finding that the same practices that allowed him to profit by selling crap to everybody else is now biting his own books as his employees take the practice home. Shocking. LOL.
HA! CR just said someone is gonna be wrong. Their criticism will be earned.
I remember when data gatherers used to care why things weren't working the way they expected and they actually asked questions instead of guessing in the media.
Its gonna be hard to track disposal of preforeclosure loans now that the practice of selling in bulk to hedge funds looks like a trend. Billions at play. Apparently terms of these sales sometimes include no resale or the properties for 3-5 years.
The discussion today was the practice hedge funds are now involved in vs. banks, Fannie and FHA.... often buying pools of non performing loans prior to foreclosure, preventing/avoiding foreclosure via loan mods and short sales, after the note has been bought at a discount.
These are private transactions that don't always see the light of day. some have restrictions regarding immediate foreclosure.
Wells recently sold a $600 mil pool. Thats a few homes "off" the market.
Again, look back to CRs notes on LPSs article a few days ago "near record high" in loan distress, but the inventory is getting peeled off earlier in the stream. Its still there, repurposed ...
Wait until they figure out that there are no economies of scale in SFH management beyond a small number, like say... 20?
Absolutely agree, but their end game is to sell shares or monetize this just like loans were sold before, its not the property they'll make their money from. The final investor will hold the bag.
Stuff like this is inserting itself into the REO pipeline, before it goes to the auction block. Your notes on LPS this morning just begs for an explanation of where it all goes?
Blackstones $13 billion investment into REOs
How about this one from Yun - a 70% increase in starts next year? Uh, I don't think so.
I'll have what ever he's drinking/smoking.... (borrowing from Meg Ryan)
Is this the same high speed rail built on soil that is still sinking?
No problem, in CA, we have inspectors that can fix that report....