Recent comments by ac

Romney's Tax Plan Screws Over Everyone But Rich People : Gothamist

That should complement the Federal Reserve very nicely!

Scalia: Guns May be Regulated - John Aloysius Farrell -

Expect more urgency to regulate guns as the financial system becomes more precarious:

The May 1998 Riots of Indonesia (Indonesian: Kerusuhan Mei 1998) were incidents of mass violence that occurred throughout Indonesia, mainly in Medan in the province of North Sumatra (4–8 May), the capital city of Jakarta (12–15 May), and Surakarta (also called Solo) in the province of Central Java (13–15 May). The riots were triggered by economic problems including food shortages and mass unemployment, and eventually led to the resignation of President Suharto and the fall of the New Order government.

May 1998 riots of Indonesia - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Not at these pr... Hey, wait a minute. WTF? Hmm.

Even if you lose money you can still brag:

"Hey I'm still a much better market timer than all the fund managers that bought it at $38!"

omg gmcr + 25% !!

The first time I tasted their coffee a couple of years back I thought...

"Pffffttt.... I should short their stock!"

are still chewing methinks.

I remember a bunch of people at the IPO saying they'd kill to own some shares at 20.

I wonder if they've changed their mind?

Finally, It Is Time to Buy a House -

This is certainly the most concerted economic propaganda campaign I've seen in my lifetime!

Anybody thinking about playing FB for a bouncy?

And so the entire Kantian revolution goes down in one paragraph!

... But though I cannot distinguish what is true from what I think so, I always can distinguish what I mean by saying that it is true from what I mean by saying that I think so.

... The assertion that it is true does not even include the assertion that I think it so; although, of course, whenever I do think a thing true, it is, as a matter of fact, also true that I do think it.

... That to be true means to be thought in a certain way is, therefore, certainly false. Yet this assertion plays the most essential part in Kant's Copernican revolution of philosophy, and renders worthless the whole mass of modern literature, to which that revolution has given rise, and which is called Epistemology.

  • G.E. Moore, Principia Ethica
We don't know whether the program is limited or unlimited

Unlimited monetary debasement is the hallmark of the terminal phase of the modern economy.

It marks the end of democracy and the beginning of dictatorship.

Who's bill Mcbride

CR sold the site to some rich investor fatcat.

It just wasn't the same without Haloscan so he bailed out.

Fat Cat

Claims definitely aren't supporting the recession argument...

with high temperatures of 112° recorded in Winfield, Kansas and Searcy, Arkansas. Little Rock, Arkansas hit 111°, their 3rd hottest temperature ever record, behind the all time record of 114° set just last year on August 3, and the 112° reading of 7/31/1986. Wichita and Coffeyville in Kansas both hit 111° Monday, and in Oklahoma, Enid, Tulsa Jones Airport, and Chandler all topped out at 111°.

That's really hit the Rush Limbaugh crowd where it hurts. Poetic justice?

"They've got to have the ability, they've got to have the motivation, they've got to have the cash, the job, all these other factors," Shilling says.

Sometimes Shilling's timing is poor but in the long-run he's a very dangerous person to ignore.

One reason I've noticed that he tends to get things wrong in the short term from time to time is that he underestimates the effects of speculators.

I wonder if there's a lot of speculation involved so far in the current housing "recovery".

Locally where there isn't even a recovery yet I hear this endless stream of "buy investment housing now!" type mortgage ads on the radio.

Good thing we're modeling our economy after theirs!

European Unemployment

Highly recommended podcast (if one is into philosophy):
Episode 10: Kantian Ethics: What Should We Do? | The Partially Examined Life Philosophy Podcast | A Philosophy Podcast and Blog

Sweet... I'll check it out.

But does this add to the piles of money sitting on the sidelines? Because I hear there are giant, Scrooge McDuck-like piles of money just sitting on the sidelines.

Just remember those piles of cash do not constitute "pent up savings" or "pent up wealth".

They constitute "pent up inflation".

For ethics Kant is about as good as it gets...I often find those that propose that good is undefinable are just looking for an excuse to rationalize their own shortcomings...FD: Haven't read Moore, and might be interested to hear your critique of him...

So far I think he makes some very good points.

Here is the chapter where he beats up on Kant:

Chapter IV: Metaphysical Ethics: PRINCIPIA ETHICA (1903) by G. E. Moore

IMO, an 8.2% unemployment rate is a much bigger problem...yet the recovery continues anyway.

This is because we're spending everybody's savings and pensions.

From Kant:
The Categorical Imperative – Ends and means
A good will is one that acts in accordance with rationally-determined duty.

Moore argues that Kant is guilty of the "naturalistic fallacy":

The fallacy of supposing moral law to be analogous to natural law in respect of asserting that some action is one which is always necessarily done is contained in one of the most famous doctrines of Kant...

He goes on and on.

I tend to be sympathetic to his views but I'll make up my mind when I'm done with the whole thing.

The recovery doesn't continue because I say so, but because the data says so.

3 months of declining retail sales in a consumer economy is a big problem though...

Deny it, rationalize it away, hate it, curse it, howl at the moon that it's impossible, but the recovery continues.

Well I've been very skeptical of a recession this year because it's an election year, but some of this data recently is getting me to second guess...

There is still a lot of problems to work through ...

Just the beginning! Evil

Principia Ethica:

In this respect ethical judgments about the effects of action involve a difficulty and a complication far greater than that involved in the establishment of scientific laws. For the latter we need only consider a single effect; for the former it is essential to consider not only this, but the effects of that effect, and so on as far as our view into the future can reach.

I keep moving forward the date when the YoY change will turn positive. It now looks like June is very possible.

Remember what a big deal it was the first month that house prices turned negative YoY?

I want to say it was something like Aug 2006 but I'm not sure.

People said it would never happen... but then the housing bears were all finally vindicated.

The Housing Bears Are Wrong Again - Larry Kudlow - National Review Online

All warfare is based on deception.

Now if you buy into that old saying that goes something like:

"Warfare is the material condition."

That would explain a lot about the world!

Still reading Principia Ethica to understand the depraved mind of Keynes. I'm collecting all the quotes I find interesting:

A moral law asserts "This is good in all cases"; a natural law asserts "This happens in all cases"; and a law, in the legal sense, "It is commanded that this be done, or left undone, in all cases".

The problem that Moore points out is that what is meant by "good" can't really be expressed as words.

This was the source of the infamous confrontation between Wittgenstein and Popper where Wittgenstein brandishing a fire iron said "Give me an example of a moral law!" And Popper said "Do not wave pokers at visiting lecturers!" (Or something like that.) At which point Wittgenstein supposedly stormed out of the room.

Massive India blackout leaves 370 million hot and bothered -

Holy shi... that's like the entire population of New York City!

Wait a second...

Mitt Romney Misuses Judaism to Support Israel and Buttress His Own Campaign - The Daily Beast

I liked the whole "you're better because you're richer" thing.

I guess the Mormons don't consider the Gospels part of Christianity.

I thought lender of last resort was supposed to be about providing liquidity for good credit. Is Spanish sovereign debt good credit?

Credit comes from responsible behavior on the part of the public.

The central bank cannot truly provide this -- they can only simulate it in the short-term by perpetuating a ponzi scheme that makes it look like the public consists of creditworthy borrowers. The central banks accomplish this by misvaluing the assets the public possesses (by public I mean businesses too) so they can appear to pay off their debt.

You know it occurs to me that all these bailout and central bank policies amount to the same thing:

"If you promise to start new businesses we will allow you to exploit the public even more in return for making the economy grow."

This "GDP growth at any cost" mentality is rote imperialism.

First of all, Europe’s single currency is a deeply flawed construction. And Mr. Draghi, to his credit, actually acknowledged that. “The euro is like a bumblebee,” he declared.

So what is the alternative? Should every country have their own currency? Every person? Should we just return to a barter economy?

BTW if the ECB starts buying private assets that will be the ultimate looting of the public though at first it won't seem like it.

But in the end the banks and private interests will be able to sell toilet paper to the public for $100 a sheet essentially by force of law.

It will be the ultimate corporate socialist feeding frenzy!


Do we even need to have the fiat/money-printing argument anymore?

How much more evidence do you need?

WTF- who would be dumb enough to short treasuries after the Bond King even gave up that trade when he saw the Fed flinch from the Republican Austerity onslaught.

When it's really time to short treasuries there's probably not going to be a functioning market to short them in.

Since when are musicals an Olympic sport?

Why not just reboot the market economy and then cushion the fall?

Well, rebooting may be necessary, but how to cushion the fall?

The problem is when you reset the financial system you wipe out all wealth.

In that situation people will go berserk and the financial system and government more generally will lose all credibility as they are seen as having scammed everybody.

The government will likely lose all moral authority in such a situation so it may make it kind of hard to cushion the fall.

The other thing is even if all debt is wiped out by a financial reset, countries running deficits will still have to resolve these too.

Wars have been fought over much less...

Chick-fil-A chief spokesman Don Perry dies unexpectedly -

Chicago politics!

From 3 days ago:

Biderman Goes All-In Bearish | ZeroHedge

This is why I don't talk about my trades...

I wonder if he's going to disable comments on his youtube videos now.

IMO it depends on what ultimately costs more. Keeping the Euro together, or having it break apart. And whether today's decisions help or hurt the Euro chances.

Yeah the Eurozone is key.

I guess I can't understand why this move would necessarily keep the Euro together.

What would impress more if Germany came out and said they'll do whatever it takes.

I interpret ac's comment as referring to wealth as value, which is has almost nothing to do with money as it currently is used.

That's part of what I'm getting at.

But also unless this move by the ECB does generate substantial economic improvement then there's not going to be extra wealth to go around, so the surge in the market in that case would not reflect actual new wealth being created but only a reallocation of existing wealth.

So the key question is whether it's reasonable that the economic future has fundamentally changed in the past two days?

Personally I think not so much...

So maybe we're getting QE3+

Both the Fed and the ECB going berserk with the money printing and bond buying.

If they do, and it doesn't work... we're gonna have a bad time!

So what you're saying is that when someone in the market makes money, someone else loses money?

Speculation is a zero sum game!

BTW... ask yourself why the market is going berserk right now.

Because it's believable that Draghi's policy is going to fix the economy?

Or is that the big players in finance see a way to make a killing off of front-running monetary policy?

If the banks do make a ton of money simply due to policy changes, where does that wealth come from?

Does it just magically appear?

Or is it simply taken from someone else and given to them?

The bubbles will continue until the collapse of the political and monetary systems creating them.

I think you may have a tenuous grasp on what might qualify as a fact. The sky is blue, is a fact. The root cause of ZIRP is an opinion, unless, of course, you have evidence to support that assertion.

A fact in philosophy is generally considered to be a picture of the natural world (i.e. a model of logical structure), whether right or wrong.

You get into opinions when you say stuff like: "Ice cream is good", where the term "good" can't be related to some specific logical structure in the world.

investor inflation expectations (currently) are held in check (partly) by - at the end of the day - that FR can reverse/curtail its operations by > fedgov cutting spending/raising taxes.

at some point ... $20 trillion in debt? ... $25 trillion in debt? ... if investors feel FR actions are IRREVERSIBLE?

If you look at historical episodes, investors tend to not worry about inflation too much until it is right in their face and it's too late to do anything about it.

So prior to the bond rout of the late 70s people were happily buying long bonds at single digit interest rates only to get slaughtered when the got up into the double digits.

Is it too much to ask that you add IMO to these sorts of comments? No snark.

I do not mean for this to be taken as my opinion but as a statement of what I perceive to be the facts.

We can discuss whether those facts are correct -- clearly I may be wrong.

Good ol' Kruggles...

OP-ED COLUMNIST; Money for Nothing - NY Times

At this point, every advanced country that borrows in its own currency is able to borrow very cheaply.

The failure of deficits to produce the predicted rise in interest rates is telling us something important about the nature of our economic troubles...

The key to understanding what's going on is that interest rates are depressed not because government bonds are perceived as a good investment, but because the central banks are GUARANTEEING RETURNS ON THE SPECULATIVE CARRY TRADE for the foreseeable future by taxing savings through inflation, giving the collected "taxes" to the banks as profits and then fraudulently maintaining the savings on the books.

In other words the central banks are saying "We promise to continue redistributing wealth from the middle class to the bankers if you artificially keep bond yields down."

Naturally the banks are willing to do this and will continue to do so until enough people figure out what is going on to do something about it.

CR, do you think this has implications for the next round of potential QE?

The Beardocracy will print whatever happens.