Recent comments by CalculatedRisk
Hmmm ... yeah, I'll post good or bad on industrial production and builder confidence.
curious, sales were revised up for both February and March, but more for February than March - so the month-to-month decline was larger in March.
Sales in February were revised from 418650 to 420100 (from a 1.0% increase to a 1.1% increase).
Sales in March were revised up from 418284 to 419027 (from a 0.4% decrease to a 0.5% decrease).
Probably confusing, but sales were up for both months from the previous release.
best wishes
Thanks!
Spent some time with my mom today ... very nice!
Someone asked me if there is an archive of Nova's comments. Does anyone know how to find them?
Europe will exist. Not so sure about the EMU.
I like the phrase "dogma of austerity". 
Cinco-X, and it wasn't April 1st in January ...
I know some people disagree with me. Fine. "It is difficult to make predictions, especially about the future"
As always, I write what I think (right or wrong).
Bruce, no question the debt increased significantly.
But does that mean we should slam the breaks on deficit spending immediately? I don't think so. That would be a severe depression.
I think there is a better path - reduce the deficit over time, not all at once. Currently I think the deficit is being reduced too quickly.
When I was warning about the policies in 2001 through 2004 (pre-blog), I couldn't get anyone to listen. When I started the blog in January 2005, I wrote mostly about housing and the economy - but I also pointed out we had a large structural deficit and were about to add an even larger cyclical deficit.
I wish I had been wrong ...
Wow. If you mean Hannity reports made up news, and I report the verifiable facts - yes, I'm in the reality camp.
If it is controversial, it is because some people live in denial.
Anyone can check what I post - I post the links too (the BLS links are in the earlier post).
How about four years of public sector job losses? That is fiscal restraint.
Or how about the declining deficit? That is fiscal restraint.
We do need to reduce the deficit over time, but there is probably an optimal path for deficit reduction (too much fiscal restraint would keep unemployment high).
Of course we having to dig out of a deep hole because of the bad fiscal policies in the '00s.
Rajesh, I changed the wording a little - if the pace continues for the entire year, this would be the best year for private sector jobs since 1999.
That is depressing - unfortunately the 00s were a lost decade.
Nemo, I think "increase" is the key word.
The FOMC is begging for help. Congress will never listen.
JP, oops. Sorry about that ... I was more clear on the 2nd graph ("cumulative payroll jobs added or lost")
I'll update the axis on the first graph
best wishes
Thanks! I'm here to serve
It is painful to see that the US has only added 1.6 million jobs (net) since January 2001.
Talk about a lost decade
BarleyReturns, I suppose. We need a phrase that allows policymakers to save face - and yet make some changes.
Eventually austerity will lead to some sort of extremist getting elected. And that would probably be the worst outcome.
I'm surprised Spain isn't seeing more social unrest. Geesh ... those are depth of Depression type unemployment rates.
Apparently.
Will S&P still release Case-Shiller? Will Corelogic still release CoreLogic? I'm confused
December and January sales were revised up ... another solid report.
CNN: Source tells CNN's John King that Boston authorities believe they have identified a suspect in bombings.
skk, I receive an embargoed copy of the MBA release. Sometimes the MBA updates their website early - sometimes later in the day. The press release will show up there eventually.
Pretty stunning. At least they shared their spreadsheet - give them credit for that. But I'm surprised by their response - I'd think they'd immediately say the first paper is flawed and they are pulling their conclusions.
A friend asked me last night about recent economic data, and I said ...
"Here comes housing to save the day!"
Mighty Mouse is on the way!
Of course I was referring to housing starts
It is amusing watching the price of gold collapse (off almost 10% today).
Of course gold is irrelevant for the economy ... it wouldn't matter for the economy if the price was $500 or $3,000.
Rickkk, I know Laura read many of Tanta's posts ... and I know this would make her happy!
What they need is growth and to reduce unemployment ... or do the opposite of anything German finance minister Wolfgang Schaeuble says!
Real wages haven't done well.
We need to get the unemployment rate down, and then probably more of the gains will flow to employees. Right now most of the economic gains are flowing to companies.
BTW, I see a dummy in Congress is proposing a new law that interest on Treasuries be paid first if the debt ceiling is reached. Dumb, dumb, dumb ... their slogan might be "pay the Chinese and rich Americans before the middle class and the military". This should make people wonder how dumb Eric Cantor is? (Note: I know he is not the sharpest tool in the shed - and I've met some pretty dull Congressional tools over the years).
Bad policy = bad results. Hoocoodanode?
Congress could vote to end sequestration today. Somehow I doubt it will happen ...
If and when Fannie Mae does release the valuation allowance on its deferred tax assets, it will be included as income in that period and will result in a corresponding increase in the company’s net worth as of the end of that period. Accordingly, Fannie Mae expects to pay Treasury a significant dividend in the quarter following a release of the valuation allowance on the company’s deferred tax assets. Although Fannie Mae has not completed its analysis, the company believes that, after considering all relevant factors, it may release the valuation allowance on its deferred tax assets as early as the first quarter of 2013.
And the profit wasn't because of a change in valuation of tax assets:
"Based on analysis of all relevant factors, Fannie Mae determined that the valuation allowance on the company’s deferred tax assets was still appropriate as of December 31, 2012. The valuation allowance as of December 31, 2012 was $58.9 billion."
It was possible they'd report an even larger profit ...
9 years of writing this blog. 0 April fools posts ...
The pickup in investment (not just RI) is a positive going forward.
This is still sluggish growth, but other than the fiscal drag at the Federal level, I'm pretty optimistic looking forward
Hmmm ... it is always early for me (I'm in California), so sometimes I do read upside down.
Today I had to make sure I had all the revisions (not much changed).
GDP was a little below expectations, but GDI was better (still weak).
From BEA:
Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by labor and property
located in the United States -- increased at an annual rate of 0.4 percent in the fourth quarter of 2012
(that is, from the third quarter to the fourth quarter), according to the "third" estimate released by the
Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter, real GDP increased 3.1 percent.The "third" estimate of the fourth-quarter percent change in real GDP is 0.3 percentage point, or
$8.6 billion, more than the second estimate issued last month, primarily reflecting upward revisions to
nonresidential fixed investment and to exports that were partly offset by a downward revision to
personal consumption expenditures.Real gross domestic income (GDI), which measures the output of the economy as the costs
incurred and the incomes earned in the production of GDP, increased 2.6 percent in the fourth quarter,
compared with an increase of 1.6 percent in the third. For a given quarter, the estimates of GDP and
GDI may differ for a variety of reasons, including the incorporation of largely independent source
data. However, over longer time spans, the estimates of GDP and GDI tend to follow similar patterns
of change.
Just when I say I'm still waiting for Fannie to compile the number of REO in Q4, Tom Lawler comes up with a different sources (he is great at finding data!)
It seems like inventory has been coming on the market over the last few weeks - if that keeps up, maybe we've seen the bottom for inventory and price increases will slow.
Reuters:
Euro zone finance ministers approve the EU-IMF plan to resolve Cypriot banks.
Apparently Parliament doesn't need to approve the deal since there was no tax on depositors.
Peter Spiegel writes ...
"Looks like just resolution, so just-passed law applies ... if just resolution (no tax), shouldn't need parliament."
It sounds like uninsured funds will be "frozen" until it is determined how much money is needed. Some people are guessing 30% haircuts, others 40%.
Cyprus seeks 11th-hour deal to avert collapse
| Reuters
Deposits below 100,000 euros in Laiki will be transferred to Bank of Cyprus. Deposits above 100,000 euros, which under EU law are not insured, will be frozen and will be used to resolve debt. It remains unclear how large the writedown on those funds will be.
The EU spokesman said there would be no "levy" imposed on any Cypriot banks, with the package requiring a full "bail-in" of uninsured depositors, which is likely to mean heavy losses for those with large holdings in Laiki and potentially Bank of Cyprus, where many Russians hold bank accounts
sm_landlord, coffee futures up sharply because of the late night meeting?
ekathimerini.com | After long delay, Eurogroup meets to discuss deal between Cyprus and troika
Furthermore, deposits that are above 100,000 euros, and therefore uninsured, at the Bank of Cyprus face a deposit tax of between 30 and 40 percent, as Nicosia tries to raise the funds demanded by the troika to qualify for a 10-billion-euro bailout.
TIMELINE: Bailout deal reached - Cyprus Mail
Acting president Yiannakis Omirou has confirmed that a deal has been struck between Cyprus and international lenders.
Government sources suggest that the deal provides for a 30 per cent haircut on deposits of over €100,000 at Bank of Cyprus while reports said Popular Bank would be resolved.
Laiki deposits under 100,000 will be transferred to a ‘good bank,’ reports said.
TIMELINE: Anastasiades to lenders: do you want to force me to resign? - Cyprus Mail
Latest reports say Eurogroup has not started. Members were just being briefed on developments
Some quick
this morning ...
The current self induced euro zone recession has lasted longer than the 2008-2009 recession. Wow ... must feel great getting Schäuble'd.