Recent comments by CalculatedRisk

This makes me happy every year!

There is something goofed in the formatting - just copy the link for the file and remove the space and # at the end

Here was the only comment on weather:

Construction employment edged down in December (-16,000). However, in
2013, the industry added an average of 10,000 jobs per month. Employment
in nonresidential specialty trade contractors declined by 13,000 in
December, possibly reflecting unusually cold weather in parts of the country.

I had to look at the calendar several time - 5 years - it seems like yesterday.

Tanta Vive!!!

Party like it's 1999 Wink
Listening to Prince right now

Comments are back! Thanks Ken!!!

Some people will say the FOMC is always flying blind Big smile I disagree, but they are definitely missing key data this month.

best to all

As an aside, the deficit in fiscal 2013 as a percent of GDP was smaller than many years under Reagan.

Cinco-X, I don't think the IRS is completely shut. I believe they've stopped audits, and things like 4506T requests (impact on mortgage lending).

They are still collecting taxes. I'm pretty sure that is what Lou means

best wishes

Not as useful as the BLS report, but the only game in town ...

best to all

Yep - and also the downward revision to inflation next year.

Weaker expected growth and below target inflation - and still high unemployment ... no wonder they decided to wait

FROM CR: I've been receiving more and more complaints about the comments (certain people being rude, etc).

If this continues, I'll have Ken ban a commenter or two.

If someone wants to send me an email - I'd like names and examples. I'll warn them ... and then ban them if the behavior continues.

best to all

I suspect the report for August will start to show a slowdown in YoY price increases (July had strong closings).

But it likes the "July" report will still be strong.

Mr_clueless, not yet. I doubt he will have an immediate negative impact, but I might change my mind after the first press conference ...

He hasn't even been nominated yet, and maybe he won't be confirmed.

Darn. Larry Summers??? Puzzled

The good news is I'll probably be back in the Fed ridicule business (like with Greenspan and early in Bernanke's tenure).

Summers will probably make for good press ... not a good attribute for a Fed Chair.

As I noted, I don't find this analysis convincing. I just don't see a sharp pickup in wages with the current unemployment rate - and high levels of underemployment (part time, etc.)

Blackhalo, I don't think so. These loans are mostly current, so it isn't like they debtors are letting the houses go ...

I think the city is being dumb ...

best wishes

I hope people like this gif - it take a little research / work Big smile

That Depression era baby bust on the earlier graph for births shows up clearly on this graph too - as do the Boomers.

Tanta argued it would bring discipline to lenders (read her piece).

Eminent Domain is just a gift to certain homeowners ...

People keep asking me about this, but I don't think it is worth much time. The housing bubble and bust have been a source of numerous dumb ideas. I usually ignore them, and they usually go away.

curious, yeah, but that was in the June statement too.

curious, yes, I understand. that is why I opposed blowing up the budget and creating a large structural deficit in the 2001-2006 period. And then we piled a large cyclical deficit on top of the structural deficit.

Now we are reducing the deficit, but there is more work to do. Threatening to not pay the bills is counter productive. Getting people back to work would help ...

best wishes

Looks like July will be a better month for the economy ... Q2 sure looked weak.

I want to listen to Bernanke, not some idiot Congressman (the first guy "Hensarling"?) is clueless ...

I read this as September is off the table (for QE tapering) without improvement in the labor market.

On twitter we can see people walking away from the crash and the guy saying "most everyone seems OK".

This is all CNN has right now (it used to be CNN was first with the news):
Boeing 777 crashes at San Francisco International Airport - CNN.com

A Boeing 777 operated by Asiana Airlines crashed while landing Saturday at San Francisco International Airport, an FAA spokesman told CNN.

Video from the scene posted on YouTube showed dark gray smoke rising from the plane, which appeared to be upright.

Evacuation slides could be seen extending from one side of the aircraft, from which there was no apparent smoke.

The airport is located about 12 miles south of downtown San Francisco.

I'm not sure CNN like news will survive with twitter, etc.

David Eun ‏@Eunner 4m
I just crash landed at SFO. Tail ripped off. Most everyone seems fine. I'm ok. Surreal... (at @flySFO) [pic] — https://path.com/p/1lwrZb

https://twitter.com/Eunner

Rob, the phrase "broadly consistent" is open to interpretation, but if they were to update their projections today (just 2+ weeks later), all the revisions would be minor but in the wrong direction (GDP down, unemployment up, inflation further below target).

Hard to argue that is "broadly consistent". I've seen several analysts say the September tapering is a done deal, but that doesn't seem likely to me unless the Fed is going to move on a calendar and not be data dependent (I'm sure Bernanke would like to start tapering before he leaves in January).

Rob, more hiring isn't necessarily good news for homebuilder stocks - probably means higher costs!

I spent a little time trying to calculate this this morning, and then I remember this tool. I find it useful.

Egypt is encouraging ... we can only hope it works out.

From Zillow's Stan Humphries (I think this is correct on several points - it does seem the market is starting to cool, I expect more inventory, and I expect price increases to slow):

“Today’s Case-Shiller numbers may reflect where the housing market has been in some of the frothier metros, but they are not indicative of where it’s headed. The housing market worm has turned over the past few weeks – inventory levels are beginning to show signs of easing, and mortgage interest rates are creeping up. Going forward, both of these factors will help mitigate extreme price spikes caused by very strong housing demand and very low housing supply,” said Zillow Chief Economist Dr. Stan Humphries. “Runaway appreciation in many of the large, coastal metros that form the backbone of the Case-Shiller indices will begin to moderate. Home value appreciation in some of these areas will have to slow down, or potentially fall, as higher bottom-line prices are no longer masked by rock-bottom mortgage rates. In general, the national housing recovery is strong and sustainable, but pockets of volatility will emerge as local fundamentals shift. Buyers expecting home values to continue rising at this pace indefinitely may be in for a shock.”

I've unfortunately spent some time with certain Congressman over the years.

I think Winston Churchill was wrong when he said "The best argument against democracy is a five-minute conversation with the average voter."

I think the best argument against democracy is to have a five-minute conversation with any of these "leaders" of the House.

I'm still laughing at all those June taper predictions.

Tanta vive!

All the builders I talk to are busy trying to meet demand ... what a change.

sm_landlord, yes - I started following them early simply because they had the numbers.

Tom Lawler has been tracking several other areas (he'll probably send me the stats today or tomorrow), and they all show a similar pattern.

2nd.

But it is simple arithmetic to see the decline is slowing - and slowing rapidly. I think inventory has bottomed in Las Vegas (these year-over-year measures are obviously lagging, but it is hard to call exactly because of the big seasonal factors).

It looks like I'll retire the "Percent Job Losses" graph next year ... it seems like forever!

This was better than the ISM / ADP reports would suggest.

Tanta vive!

HomeGnome , my pleasure!

The first graph is a little concerning with household net worth increasing much faster than GDP.

I like seeing mortgage debt as a percent of GDP still falling. That is good news.

best to all

It sure seems like the employment report for May will be disappointing. I'll post something tomorrow, but it seems like all the indicators have been weak this month ...

The IMF piece is very sad (but maybe they will learn from it).

Noah's piece is funny.

I've had a double digit rate (I think 11%) and it was assumable - and that was a selling feature when I sold the house!

Plenty of interesting data in the release ...

Not many basements were I live (although I've seen more recently)

In reality the beatings will continue ...

On GDP:

PCE was revised up from 3.2% to 3.4%,

This was offset with less inventory build, and less government spending.

Inventories were revised down from a 1.03 percentage point contribution to 0.63 percentage points.

The headline number was down slightly, but the internals were slightly stronger.