Recent comments by RE

ResistanceIsFeudal wrote:

Wisdom Seeker wrote:

And again, aggregate data whitewashes the maldistribution problem.

Feature, not bug That's the purpose of macroeconomic focus.

Please. If you don't understand aggregate effect, how could you even begin to understand its distributed effects?

Wisdom Seeker wrote:

So no, I really don't see "the first debt reduction in 50 years" as the salient point. It was just a one-off data blip due to the recession.

So if it was just due to the recession, why didn't we see a similar "data blip" during any other recession since the 1950s?

Wisdom Seeker wrote:

It seems to me like you're taking credit for driving all the way back to credit normality, when we haven't even gone 10% of the trip, the tires have gone flat and engine has broken down.

So we had a 5+% reduction in debt levels for the FIRST time in over 60 years likely in significant part due to the stimulus/more debt and you just want to ignore it instead of attempting to learn from it.

To answer you then post nominal debt figures and because it has the word "level" in it you thought it was debt levels...
Amazing.

5+% is huge and was not at all expected by the debt mongers.

Ideology FTW!

Cinco-X wrote:

He is awfully pro-Russian, but he's told us he's German, his father or grandfather was a German paratrooper, and he lives in Spain with his GF.

You are right, he's from Zschopau.

He just never responded in German.

Cinco-X wrote:

I think Yoringe has put me on ignore...

Are you sure that Yoringe is German or just lives in Germany? I'm not.

Wisdom Seeker wrote:

RE wrote:

According to a few here, a lasting debt level reduction has no sustainable benefit.

But the national data do not show debt level reduction.

Also note that in my earlier comments about the "refi boom", I said nothing about "debt level" reduction, only "interest cost" reduction. Interest cost reduction is a one-time benefit which cannot be sustained further.

You aren't serious, are you?

Your graph shows DOLLARS not debt levels, i.e. debt/GDP. Levels have a denominator, like this:

Graph: All Sectors; Credit Market Instruments; Liability, Level / Gross Domestic Product - FRED - St. Louis Fed

edit: Refis at a lower rate result in debt level reductions.

Wisdom Seeker wrote:

RE wrote:

According to a few here, a lasting debt level reduction has no sustainable benefit.

But the national data do not show debt level reduction.

Also note that in my earlier comments about the "refi boom", I said nothing about "debt level" reduction, only "interest cost" reduction. Interest cost reduction is a one-time benefit which cannot be sustained further.

You aren't serious, are you?

Your graph shows DOLLARS not debt levels, i,e, debt/GDP. Levels have a denominator, like this:

Graph: All Sectors; Credit Market Instruments; Liability, Level / Gross Domestic Product - FRED - St. Louis Fed

edit: Refis at a lower rate result in debt level reductions.

resusitate wrote:

When we have to resort to our military to defend our interests across the globe, that is the definite sign of our decline.

You are aware that the U.S. share of world GDP was close to 50% in 1950?

According to a few here, a lasting debt level reduction has no sustainable benefit. So debt clearly can't be an issue...

Wisdom Seeker wrote:

It's just a pity that the one-time refi boom, which led to higher discretionary spending, and which Seb has counted as "growth", is not sustainable and has run out of gas.

Jackdawracy wrote:

How come i'm never offered a full set of Snap-On tools, gratis?

Did you attend public school and even complained about its quality? Gratis.

Jackdawracy wrote:

Free money is not without it's advocates.

If it works as a tool I'm an advocate. Is there a different morality when it comes to money vs. other tools?

Seems a bit ideological and elitist.

tg wrote:

War Propaganda: The Root of Evil – LewRockwell.com

Personally, I don't read racist's sites however enticing the headline.

BarleyReturns wrote:

Boy all this stuff should could ruin a good game of golf, huh

Do I really have to post the presidential vacation/golf stats again? They are so...one-sided.

ResistanceIsFeudal wrote:

Wisdom Seeker wrote:

It's just a pity that the one-time refi boom, which led to higher discretionary spending, and which Seb has counted as "growth", is not sustainable and has run out of gas.

That's not a pity. It's math.

So a lasting debt level reduction has no sustainable benefit? I wonder why people worry so much about debt...

Gov. Christie Shifted Pension Cash to Wall Street, Costing New Jersey Taxpayers $3.8 Billion

Gov. Chris Christie's administration openly acknowledged that more New Jersey taxpayer dollars were going to land in the coffers of major financial institutions. It was 2010, and Christie had just installed a longtime private equity executive, Robert Grady, to manage the state's pension money. Grady promoted a plan to put more of those funds into riskier investments managed by Wall Street firms. Though this would entail higher fees, Grady said the strategy would "maximize returns while appropriately managing risk."

ResistanceIsFeudal wrote:

It may be modeling something more akin to what I described, rather than a boring 30-year mortgage on a house you buy and live in. It would stand to reason that would look far more like a 30-yr Treasury, but that's not the case.

Just in case the graph didn't make it::

FRED Graph - FRED - St. Louis Fed

Why would this have sent the CPI through the roof in 2004/2005?

ResistanceIsFeudal wrote:

I should think using the 10yr as an approximation of a mortgage would be a pretty poor idea unless you're trying to model something more akin to the 'move-up' buyer in the mythical ever-appreciating market that never experiences downdrafts and has 100% liquidity because everyone wants to live there at any price.

Well, it seems to correlate rather well.

FRED Graph - FRED - St. Louis Fed

JP wrote:

When you think about it: If there had been a sensible inclusion of housing in CPI, then the 2005 housing bubble would have sent inflation through the roof, which would have caused the Fed to raise interest rates a whole lot sooner, which in turn would have prevented the worst of the excess.

How do you square your point with the 10-year as a proxy for housing costs? The Fed only sets short term rates at best.

Graph: 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate - FRED - St. Louis Fed

Yoringe wrote:

RE: did you read Yogis Comments?

I did but it doesn't justify the KZ reference in any way.

Yoringe wrote:

I didnt know Yogi lost his manners at a Concentration Camp..... its forgivable. I forgive your Insults Yogi :hugh:

Bitte, sei kein Blödmann.

Rob Dawg wrote:

Kos is fronting for the Dems as the flash polls for November are looking a bit alarming. Even Shehann in NH is pulling even.

Poll averages still say 50-50.

Remember the Mitt bounce?

http://election.princeton.edu/

ResistanceIsFeudal wrote:

Can't have people realizing the simple truths of the monetary universe.

Absolutely not.

yuan wrote:

People without assets suffer more than people with assets?

I agree it's silly.

Just watch who screams the loudest and usually it's those "advocates for the poor" and redistribution, the rentier...

energyecon wrote:

FTA:

The average job in greater Houston pays 12 percent less than the average job in greater New York; the average job in greater Atlanta pays 22 percent less.
So why are people moving to these relatively low-wage areas? Because living there is cheaper, basically because of housing. According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, rents (including the equivalent rent involved in buying a house) in metropolitan New York are about 60 percent higher than in Houston, 70 percent higher than in Atlanta.

Dramatic increase in real disposable income.

I understand why people move.

However, that move has economic consequences for overall U.S. GDP/income. As it cuts income it is therefore likely to rob Peter to pay Paul. It exacerbates deflationary forces via general wage pressures and leads to further cries like “the middle class is losing”.

In fact, it is another manifestation of the Paradox of Thrift.

To balance it out, the new location should be commensurately more productive.

In a relatively low employment economy, the negative effects are worse as the stickiness of wages enters the picture, i.e. a propensity to fire non-critical employees while rewarding the remaining ones leading again to lower aggregate income/demand.

See GD1:

ImageShack - WagesGD1_FRB_Atlanta.jpg

FOR is not available by quintile but even massive improvement there has not healed the economy nor sentiment.

Graph: Household Financial Obligations as a percent of Disposable Personal Income - FRED - St. Louis Fed

energyecon wrote:

FTA:

The average job in greater Houston pays 12 percent less than the average job in greater New York; the average job in greater Atlanta pays 22 percent less.
So why are people moving to these relatively low-wage areas? Because living there is cheaper, basically because of housing. According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, rents (including the equivalent rent involved in buying a house) in metropolitan New York are about 60 percent higher than in Houston, 70 percent higher than in Atlanta.

Dramatic increase in real disposable income.

I understand why people move.

However, that move has economic consequences for overall U.S. GDP/income. As it cuts income it is therefore likely to rob Peter to pay Paul. It exacerbates deflationary forces via general wage pressures and leads to further cries like “the middle class is losing”.

In fact, it is another manifestation of the Paradox of Thrift.

To balance it out, the new location should be commensurately more productive.

In a relatively low employment economy, the negative effects are worse as the stickiness of wages enters the picture, i.e. a propensity to fire non-critical employees while rewarding the remaining ones leading again too lower aggregate income/demand.

See GD1:

ImageShack - WagesGD1_FRB_Atlanta.jpg

FOR is not available by quintile but even massive improvement there has not healed the economy nor sentiment.

Graph: Household Financial Obligations as a percent of Disposable Personal Income - FRED - St. Louis Fed

Rob Dawg wrote:

bearly wrote on Sun, 8/24/2014 - 1:15 pm

Apparently Ferguson doesn't even have a golf course. Lowest quintile hamlet.
No wonder Braaaak sent Holder.

Actually shares a border with a PGA host course to the south. Norwood?

Golfing is a white man's privilege...

skk wrote:

which is YOU right.

Fine.

skk wrote:

so one's way of earning a living is private then in your book ?

By all means. Only bullies can't respect that.

skk wrote:

I asked and you haven't said what you do for a living Seb. I'll take it as a 'don't wish to say".

It's called privacy.

traderwalt wrote:

I wonder if he still has his police officer's hand gun or whether he now has to exercise is glod given 1st Amendment rights to bear arms in order to demonstrate his "diversity". Or perhaps now he can become a spokesman for the NRA or maybe Colt Industries. His future is bright while ours has dimmed a little.

Yep.

lawyerliz wrote:

The man told the truth. Can't do that,

I know.

"We have no business passing hate crime laws. None. Because we're setting aside a group of people special," Page says. "We got a Supreme Court out of control with laws on sodomy," he says later.

At other points, he calls Obama an "illegal alien" and shows a photo of himself in Kenya. "i went to our undocumented president's home. He was born in Kenya."

But it was Page's flippant talk about violence that Belmar said he found particularly alarming.

FUBAR and WASS LLC wrote:

http://www.fergusoncity.com/DocumentCenter/View/1603 

St. Louis County Police Officer Dan Page Suspended Following Inflammatory Video

"Policemen are very cynical. I know I am," Page says from a podium on the video. "I hate everybody. I'm into diversity. I kill everybody."

Mary wrote:

They did. Bank of Iceland did not default, before or after the four commercial banks failed. Also Iceland repaid

Icelanders Run Out of Cash to Repay Foreign Debts: Nordic Credit - Bloomberg

curious wrote:

Are you highlighting the fact that they had big deficits? I know that. But the government spent less money from 2009 to 2012. According to CR, that's austerity (I don't agree, BTW).

They were the ultimate bubble economy. Of course they couldn't sustain their prebubble spending.

RE wrote:

Activation on 17 November 2008 of a $5.1bn sovereign debt package (of which $2.1bn came from IMF and the remaining $3.0bn from a group of Nordic countries) – to help finance budget deficits and the creation of domestic banks.

And all this for 330,000 people. Talk about "austerity".

curious wrote:

According to this graph, they cut government spending from ~2009 to 2013. According to this blog's author, that's austerity.

The main countermeasures to combat the crisis were:

Enforcement of strict capital controls to help protect the ISK currency. This included a full suspension of all official currency exchange on 6 October 2008, which got replaced in late November 2008 by a new set of strict capital controls – but now more flexible as they allowed big Icelandic importers and exporters some room for limited currency exchange going forward.

Activation on 17 November 2008 of a $5.1bn sovereign debt package (of which $2.1bn came from IMF and the remaining $3.0bn from a group of Nordic countries) – to help finance budget deficits and the creation of domestic banks.

Activation of "Minimum deposit guarantee repayment loans" (€1.2bn from Germany;[citation needed] while the €4.0bn of offered Icesave loans from UK and Netherlands never was accepted) – to help finance the minimum deposit repayment to foreign account holders having lost their savings due to the bankruptcy of the Icelandic banks.

mr_clueless wrote:

did they...i thought they just let the banks fail.

Did you read my Wiki quote?

poicv2.0 wrote:

It's because they didn't make the structural changes that we did after our financial crisis

But Iceland went the "austerity" route and we need those folks at Jackson Hole to copy their policies... Snark

curious wrote:

For comparison, here's the unemployment data for Iceland. The 2008 to present change seems better than the EU's.

And not to forget:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008%E2%80%9311_Icelandic_financial_crisis

As part of the urgently passed emergency law on 6 October, the path forward for the receivership held banks was dictated to be a secretion of all domestic assets into new surviving public owned domestic versions of the banks, while leaving the foreign remnants of the banks into receivership and liquidation. This move worked as a protecting hand for the Icelandic economy, as it meant that the domestic residents would not suffer any losses from the systemic bank failure.

curious wrote:

For comparison, here's the unemployment data for Iceland. The 2008 to present change seems better than the EU's.

Please..

Iceland population: 320,137 (2012)

...And the Ferguson police department’s incident report is simply… blank.

The Michael Brown Shooting Incident Report Is Ridiculous - Little Green Footballs

josap wrote:

I didn't watch it.
Read the article.

I understand.

That's how easily it happens in Ferguson. No attempt to tase or pepper spray, no attempt to deescalate the situation.

Graphic.

St. Louis Police Release Graphic Video of Shooting of Kajieme Powell near Ferguson, Mo. - YouTube

justaskin wrote:

first I've heard that it was claimed he did...

It was obsessed over:

brown cn No orbital fracture - Google Search

justaskin wrote:

Brown's dead....Johnson, well, he's gonna have to live with his part in the whole sorry episode

Breaking: CNN Reports #Ferguson PD Officer Darren Wilson DID NOT Suffer a Fractured Eye Socket - Little Green Footballs

Cinco-X wrote:

Why not adjust for real median income instead? Facepalm Facepalm

Because this series stops at the end of 2011?

Former Idealist wrote:

With the inclusion of shadow inventory and the millions of underwater homeowners, none of these stats have any meaning.

Without data there are only conspiracy theories...