Recent comments by Mike in Long Island

Of course on a serious note selling bush meat is a sign of a worse potential vector.

It's the main source of protein for some. It's easy to understand why people continue to do what they've always done despite warnings to the contrary. It doesn't make it any less scary in terms of the potential however.

The WHO has their latest ebola sitrep out: 

Gonna get a lot worse before it gets better.

FrontPageAfrica - Ebola: A Biological Warfare With An Unseen Enemy?

Some Liberians who may not have the luxury of sophistication in education still hold the view that the disease is not ordinary to the extent that some believe it was exported into the African forest by what they call ‘The White man’.

Famata Jabateh used to sell bush meat at the Duala Market but now she has gone underground with her soul always looking out for the Police and thoroughly, making sure that her potential buyers are not in a covert operation to seize her supply.

“There is nothing else for us to do. So I have to continue to sell my meat. They say Ebola from Monkey meat? Who say Ebola from Monkey meat? That the white people bring an Ebola here,” she said angrily snapping her fingers.

“You know I hear say Obama bringing hospital here, you think America will just bring hospital here if they not know about this thing here? Your leave peoples here ya, we know where this thing coming from. That the white people bring an Ebola here.”

The government placed a ban on the sale of bush meat because it is believed that the deadly virus is also spreading through the consumption of the product, which is a delicacy for many tribes in Liberia.But Jabateh’s view is far from the reality in the scientific world at the moment about what is causing the outbreak.

Don't we have an online convention every day?
Frankly you don't want to be face to face with me.

Today I learned Rajesh is 4'2"

MIT, WPI, RPI tuitions come to mind.


Of course it could be worse....

Bennington | Tuition, Fees, and Costs

If not, he should - I'll chip in if some others here are willing...

Many years ago when I first got involved in options I remember fielding a call from someone who asked the same thing of Zenith puts he/she had sold.

Like clockwork every month he/she sold $10 strike puts in Zenith and collected the premium until one day they went bankrupt. He was calling to make sure he wouldn't be assigned (asked to buy worthless stock at $10) based on his belief that if the stock didn't exist he couldn't get assigned. He was very unhappy to learn that to the contrary he would be assigned.

"But the stock isn't trading! Where will it come from?!?! I'm going to insist on getting the certificates!!!"

I wonder what he/she did with them....TANSTAAFL

Bring out your dead! Bring out your dead!
RadioShack stumbles down road taken by many failed U.S. retailers
| Reuters

I wonder if he subscribes to poic's newsletter....

Question about puts and bankruptcy | Elite Trader

Back in May, I sold some in the money put options on Radio Shack that expire in Oct. If RSH should go bankrupt, are those options exercised or no longer valid and therefore, worthless? My breakeven is $.75

not sure how to interpret this. Either there is really less volume(and volatility) or lots of trading is taking place off the public exchange.

Both - but more of the later.


Some stats here.

Login :: TabbFORUM - Where Capital Markets Speak

This news release from the SEC is worth a quick skim... | SEC Charges Bank Holding Company in Delaware with Improper Accounting and Disclosure of Past Due Loans

According to the SEC’s order instituting a settled administrative proceeding, Wilmington Trust omitted from its disclosures in the third and fourth quarters of 2009 approximately $338.9 million and $330.2 million, respectively, in matured loans 90 days or more past due. Instead, it disclosed just $38.7 million in such loans for the third quarter and only $30.6 million in its annual report following the fourth quarter. Wilmington Trust also materially misreported this category of loans in the first and second quarters of 2010. Furthermore, Wilmington Trust failed to accurately disclose during the second half of 2009 the amount of non-accruing loans in its portfolio, and materially understated its loan loss provision and allowance for loan losses during this same period.

Virologist: Fight against Ebola in Sierra Leone and Liberia is lost | Sci-Tech | DW.DE | 11.09.2014

But Jonas Schmidt-Chanasit of the Bernhard Nocht Institute for Tropical Medicine in Hamburg told DW that he and his colleagues are losing hope for Sierra Leone and Liberia, two of the countries worst hit by the recent Ebola epidemic.
"The right time to get this epidemic under control in these countries has been missed," he said. That time was May and June. "Now it is too late."
Schmidt-Chanasit expects the virus will "burn itself out" in this part of the world.
With other words: It will more or less infect everybody and half of the population - in total about five million people - could die.

** In Sierra Leone, the government has ordered a quarantine of 21 days for every household in which an Ebola case occurred. Soldiers and police are guarding these houses preventing anyone who has come into contact with an Ebola patient from leaving.**
According to Moninger, that is exactly the right thing to do: isolating sick people - should it be necessary, even with military force.

And I expect that their demand for air conditioning is on average pretty high -- which somewhat overcomes the intermittency problem. Still, where do they plan to store a zillion GWh of electricity for use at night and on cloudy days?


Never heard of the first. Live and learn.

Somehow I forgot to mention the Audemars Piguet

Of course since Kanye rapped about it, it may fall into the "too common" category.

In case you're interested. There is free shipping. Audemars Piguet Royal Oak Chronograph Rose Gold Black Dial: Clothing

Thanks Mike - the split between aspirational vs. arrived is appreciated.

I like watches. That said - you won't find me spending thousands on one.

Here's a few value picks

Cheap, quartz "dive" watch Casio Men's MDV106-1A Stainless Steel Watch: Casio: Watches

Cheapish - quartz ABC (altimeter, barometer, compass) watch Casio Men's PRG-270-1 "Protrek" Triple Sensor Multi-Function Digital Sport Watch: Casio: Clothing

Durable automatic watch (doesn't need batteries/self winding) - Seiko Men's SRP315 "Classic" Stainless Steel Automatic Divers Watch: Seiko: Clothing

So which watch signifies the alphaest alpha?

Uylsee Nardin
Patek Philippe

Any of the above will meet your criteria.

Rolex, Omega and Breitling are too common.

Speaking of desperate whores, only the NYSE would list the criminal BA BA.

I'm certain they got the listing since Nasdaq said "no thanks".

Mike, left you an answer after the Pigged

Saw that. Thanks.

Sure, but influenza is a different beast - airborne and infectious prior to onset of symptoms - but it is an unsurprising ratio and essentially irrelevant to a comparison between the medical resource base available here vs. west Africa.
We are on the order of 200+ doctors per 100,000 vs. .4 doctors per 100,000... something that extreme.

While I agree that doctors/100k of pop is greater here and we definitely have more resources I still think it would be a mistake to assume that we could control an outbreak here successfully given the population density of certain urban areas, particularly those with mass transit.

If you have ever used subways during rush hour you will understand what I'm talking about.

Next year, the iCockRing, that holds your credit card information and transacts via NFC

So you can pay for sex with buttcoins?

Yep. We will see it here in a few clusters at some point. The unlucky souls in west Africa don't have the medical resources at hand that we do by several orders of magnitude.

From page 15 of this PDF

This is specific to NYC and is based on planning for a H1n1 type flu pandemic. Check out the number of beds vs. population.

Address the need for sufficient intensive care and ventilatory support for patients with respiratory
● Estimate needs for emergency mass critical care during pandemic influenza.
● To estimate the needs for emergency mass critical care during pandemic influenza, in
December 2006, DOHMH used CDC’s computer model, FluSurge2. The estimates were
based upon the following parameters:
❍ NYC’s population = 8.2 million persons
❍ Total staffed non-ICU beds = 24,464
❍ Total staffed ICU beds = 1,713
❍ Full-featured ventilators for adults, children, and neonates = 2,688
❍ NYC attack rate = 25% to 35% of population

Turning these poor souls away has horrific implications. This speaks to a near complete breakdown of any infrastructure that might have existed.

Deadly Disappointment Awaits at Ebola Clinics Due to Lack of Space - WSJ

Milton Mulbon arrived in a taxi at the gates of an Ebola clinic in Liberia's capital, Monrovia, with his 24-year-old daughter, Patience, bleeding in the back seat. Guards turned them away.

"They're telling me no space?" he protested, the taxi parked nearby. "She's lying down in there almost at the point of death!"

Taxis, ambulances, and even men pushing their sick in wheelbarrows are crisscrossing Monrovia, looking for an open bed in West Africa's overbooked Ebola clinics, health-care workers say. Sometimes they get in, through persistence and good timing. Mostly they don't.

At present, there are only a few hundred beds. International support has been slow to come and is just beginning to address this specific problem, with the U.S. promising 1,000 additional beds in a new aid package.

The shortage is so dire that ambulances have picked up people raging with the symptoms of Ebola, driven them around for hours, then dropped them back at home, medical workers say.

The odds of surviving Ebola at home, without intravenous hydration, are slim. Along the way, the sick often infect their families. That is creating ever more Ebola patients arriving at the gates of overcrowded clinics.

Taxis pull up here so frequently that both Doctors Without Borders and the CDC worry the taxis themselves have become conveyors of the virus. The disease spreads through bodily fluids and if a healthy person were to put his hands into the sweat left by previous passenger, it could spread—and in a way that would be impossible to trace.

You mean the info I put on the cloud isn't really and truly locked in a vault somewhere only accessible by me? Say it isn't so. Who could've seen that coming.

Yeah hoocoodanode? Apple might get some flack over this.

Nigeria May Get Rid of Ebola By Sept 6, Govt Says

I will take the over.

Some morning Ebola Dooooooooooooooom!!!

Ebola alert, hospitals stand by as planes with Indians from Liberia land in Mumbai | The Indian Express

As many as 112 Indian nationals suspected to have been exposed to the Ebola virus are expected to land in Mumbai from Liberia on seven different flights Tuesday. Civic authorities, meanwhile, are busy creating an isolation facility in a suburban hospital.

The medical team at CSIA has planned a five-step process for the safety of passengers, including parking the aircraft at an isolated bay. “The passengers will be screened at the step ladder itself. Those without symptoms will be cleared,” said an airport spokesperson.
All suspected cases will be admitted to Hindu Hriday Samrat Jogeshwari trauma care hospital, where the provision for 120 beds has been made. Deshmukh said that only those patients who require treatment will be shifted to Kasturba hospital, where 160 beds can be utilised for this purpose.

So if you are suspected of being exposed but are not yet symptomatic you will apparently be allowed to go on your merry way. It's not as if Mumbai has a dense population where should they become symptomatic it won't easily spread....

And now it has spread to Congo.

BBC News - Ebola outbreak confirmed by DR Congo

The Democratic Republic of Congo has confirmed that an outbreak of haemorrhagic fever in the north of the country has been identified as Ebola.

Health Minister Felix Numbi told the BBC that tests on two people had confirmed the disease in Equateur province, where 13 had already died.
But he said the deaths occurred in an isolated area and the disease seemed a different strain to West Africa's.

Mutation or coincidence where two separate strains emerge at the same time?

LOL! Suckers. I'm getting a FEMA trailer rent free... of course there is the mandatory re-education and the occasional waterboarding, but at least I'm not throwing money away.

The local paper has the mandatory notices relating to foreclosures.

This one got my attention.

Sale at the courthouse scheduled for 9/2/14 in connection with the judgement of foreclosure and sale entered 6/11/07. Amount of the judgement is $522k.

At least 7 years of non or partial payment...

Yah. Knew about those. I am aiming more towards continuous forward versus intermittent. At the same time I am using legs in full extension across the most efficient extension. I also want shallow.

The mirage drives are fairly efficient with not as much prop slip like you will experience with a propeller. You can take short pedal strokes in shallower water to keep the fins closer to the hull.

You can also take the drive out and reverse it to back up if you want. If you haven't tried on you should really make an attempt to do so. They even have different sized/profiled fins for top end speed vs low end torque.

Inspired me to design a screw propelled version using leg power. And no, not a bicycle mechanism.

You are better off co-opting a hobie mirage drive. It is a very well engineered design that more than a few small boat designers/builders have adopted for their own use.

Hobie Mirage Drive Standard - - Product Details

It relies on a pumping motion - back and forth - not circular like a bike or paddle boat.


This is a yacht?

No - it's an example of an Adirondack guide boat.

A very nice pulling boat. You can probably maintain 3-4 mph without too much trouble.

This is a yacht?

No that's an example of an Adirondack guide boat.

Very nice pulling boat.

Ah, something fof doomers to glom on to.

Happy to oblige.

Nurses Use 3 Thermometers on Thousands | The Liberian Observer

Nurses Use 3 Thermometers On Thousands

He disclosed that what was even more scary to him was that all those who were being tested used the same three thermometers, with nurses having physical contact with travelers. Such a situation is highly risky for the people of Liberia.

..vs. tunnel vision

A well known symptom of cranial rectal inversion

Ebola Dooooooooooooooom!!!

FrontPageAfrica - At Catholic Hospital, Several Ebola Deaths Traced to Sawyer

Monrovia - When Patrick Sawyer took his sister, Princess who was bleeding profusely to the St. Joseph Catholic hospital, healthcare workers ran to the rescue, but this hospitality led to the trail of death from the deadly Ebola Virus that no one ever imagined could possibly happen, with up to six deaths now in Liberia and two in Nigeria including an ECOWAS Protocol officer.

Shocking news, trails of death, the St. The Joseph Catholic hospital is now a ghost town with the entire staff evacuated and some still counting days at isolation centers hoping for a miracle to recover. Since last week there has been news of deaths emanating from the Hospital. The first was the Hospital’s Chief Administrator Patrick Nshamdze, 52, from Cameroon who died on August 2, 2014 after contracting the deadly Ebola virus then followed more deaths.

Six persons have now died from the hospital, including a Spanish priest who died on Tuesday after being airlifted to Spain for treatment, after contracting the deadly virus disease. Three women's health-workers, including a Congolese nun have died and one medical doctor from the hospital.

But the death trail is even more shocking as all points to one person. On a fateful day in early July, a lady known as Princess, who happened to be the sister of a senior Liberian Finance Ministry official, was brought in to the hospital, escorted by her brother Patrick Sawyer. The woman was bleeding profusely and every other health worker was afraid to touch her as news of the deadly Ebola outbreak had already spread according to sources.

Be interesting to see what happens when the stuff wears out or needs maintenance. Then again, the MIC is no doubt producing way over what's needed by the military so perhaps there'll be a steady stream of never-used deadly stuff for state, county, city & local LEs to try out on the people they're allegedly protecting and serving.

I'm sure there are going to be municipalities that spend a bunch on training some pilots who won't have aircraft for them to pilot necessitating either a budget increase to procure said aircraft or to re-train the pilots in the use of less lethal devices so they can be deployed as crowdfirst amendment control.

An op-ed on the militarization of the police...

Why do our police look like soldiers? - Jamelle Bouie - Newsday

This process ramped up with the "war on drugs" in the 1980s and 1990s, as the federal government supplied local and state police forces with military-grade weaponry to clamp down on drug trafficking and other crime. And it accelerated again after the 9/11 attacks and the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, when the federal government had - and sent - billions in surplus military equipment to state and local governments.

Since 2006, according to an analysis by The New York Times, police departments have acquired 435 armored vehicles, 533 planes, 93,763 machine guns and 432 mine-resistant armored trucks. Overall, since Congress established its program to transfer military hardware, local and state police departments have received $4.3 billion worth of equipment. Accordingly, the value of military equipment used by these police agencies has increased from $1 million in 1990 to $324 million in 1995 (shortly after the program was established), to nearly $450 million in 2013.

I've been looking at pics of Ferguson and I must say the cops are better armed than the National Guard that teargassed me in church back in the day.

The story out of Ferguson is amazing. Did you see the pic's of the police dismantling the reporters lighting and camera equipment along with the reports of them telling them they aren't allowed to record what's going on?

We don't get that amount of rain in a year - ever.

Getting it all at once is a bit inconvenient.

Local roads became rivers. Fun stuff.

EDIT: Some video and photos here

Long Island city saturated by more than 12 inches of rain | New York's PIX11 / WPIX-TV

The rain started yesterday about 5pm. The 2 inches is just from early this morning to now, about 2 hours. Some places are getting hit harder than others in the Valley. My tea candle holders were overflowing by 8pm last night.

We had a bit too.

National Weather Service Forecast Office - Upton, NY

Newsday - 404 error

Flooding across Long Island as 13 inches of rain falls at Islip

Bacon Poutine chips? I'll have to look for those..

I would expect you to make your own.

My uncle, at 72 years old, just purchased a motorhome with a 20 year loan.

Now there's someone with the good ole 'murican spirit! Debt before dishonor!

You had chipotle deviled eggs for breakfast?

Was at Battery Park on Manhattan a few days ago. The century old pictures show the water six-eight inches lower.

Battery Park proper didn't exist a century ago. It's all landfill.

That said - sea levels along the eastern seaboard have been rising and it is speculated that it is tied to a decrease in the speed of the gulf stream along with land subsiding.

Watch Manhattan’s Boundaries Expand Over 250 Years

This pdf goes into the reasons

For ee

EXCLUSIVE: Mystery patient in New York City's Ebola scare recounts 72 anxious hours of being quarantined at hospital - NY Daily News

“I turned up the heat in the car to 90 degrees and drove back to Brooklyn,” said Silverman, who had also spent three years after college in Sierra Leone with the Peace Corps. “Then I got out of the car and I was freezing again. My mother took my temperature and it was 104. When she called our family doctor, she said to get me to the emergency room at Mount Sinai.”

Dr. Annette Osher alerted the hospital’s emergency room doctors that she was sending them her patient and that he had recently returned from Sierra Leone, one of the countries hardest hit by Ebola. As Silverman and his mother got into a livery car close to midnight, he warned his mother: “Don’t mention the ‘E-word’ in the cab, or else we’re never going to make it up there.”

The IPO that wasn't.

I wonder how you undo all that trading?


VBL Therapeutics Announces Termination of Underwriting Agreement for Public Offering - Yahoo Finance

TEL AVIV, Israel, Aug. 8, 2014 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- VBL Therapeutics today announced that the underwriting agreement for its initial public offering has been terminated by the Company's underwriters, Deutsche Bank and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, due to an unexpected situation in which a substantial existing U.S. shareholder did not fund payment for shares it previously agreed to purchase in the offering. As a result of the termination of the underwriting agreement, no shares will be issued pursuant to the registration statement for the offering that was declared effective by the Securities and Exchange Commission on July 30, 2014.

The termination notice is not related to the Company, its business or its prospects.

Market System Status

NASDAQ MarketWatch is reviewing all transactions involving the security Vascular Biogenics Ltd. (VBLX) executed since the commencement of secondary trading on July 31, 2014 through August 7, 2014. This review is pursuant to the company’s press release issued earlier today, announcing the underwriting agreement for its initial public offering has been terminated. MarketWatch will advise with details as soon as available.

Beliefs like this don't bode well for containment.

Ebola Outbreak: Nigeria Braces for More Cases in Lagos - TIME

Still, the outbreak hasn’t affected daily life in the economic hub of Africa’s largest economy. Even as some concerns mount among government officials, many people say they’re not worried.

“I don’t believe it, I don’t believe what people are saying that is happening in Nigeria,” said 28-year-old Christopher Ukpang, a security guard at an upscale Lagos supermarket. “I’m begging my fellow Nigerians, they should not be afraid of this sickness, it won’t affect us. We should have trust in God.”

Ballpark, 1 month to ~3.2k cases, 2 months to ~6.4k etc until an effective intervention strategy takes hold (or I suppose it could be accelerated if there was some major breakdown in social order). Subject to the limitations of an exponential curve fit to the reported case data.

Wouldn't there be an acceleration due to population density in a place like Lagos? How many people can a symptomatic person infect in a place like Lagos vs a rural village with a population of a few hundred?

Yah... did some curve fitting to the case counts from the Aussie virologist's blog, if the current exponential trend fit holds, we have about a four week doubling time.

Yeah and after that?

also, if the deployment is slow or staggered, it may generate a significant wave of movement by people seeking to escape the quarantined areas.

Too late.

Worried Liberians queued at banks and stocked up on food in markets in the ramshackle capital Monrovia while others took buses to unaffected parts of the West African country after President Ellen Johnson Sirleaf announced the powers lasting for 90 days late on Wednesday.

The Liberian military deployment - Operation White Shield - is expected to be fully in place by Friday, officials said.