Recent comments by albrt

Which part? Catastrophic price drops destroy capacity pretty much every time they happen. It should happen especially here in the US where costs are high and rising. The rigs will rust or be sent elsewhere for near scrap value, the low-interest liar loans will dry up - same old story.

I already cited Jevons for the price reduction part - based on coal prices crashing in the mid nineteenth century when steam engines were improved.

I'll admit, I thought prices were headed relentlessly upward a few years ago, but in hindsight it's blindingly obvious that price instability would be the real engine of destruction.


See Jevons above. Price reductions are another way to get to the peak, and will reduce production capacity much faster than price increases would.

Of course governments can restart production by issuing money to fund it. Just like they're doing with the rest of the economy.

Fire and Ice by Robert Frost : The Poetry Foundation

Intentional propaganda and misdirection?

Or noblesse oblige?

Take up the White Man's burden, Ye dare not stoop to less--
Nor call too loud on Freedom To cloke your weariness;
By all ye cry or whisper, By all ye leave or do,
The silent, sullen peoples Shall weigh your gods and you.

Depends on whether rogue police with military gear, paranoid nativist gun-nuts, and drone-murdering Presidents count as terrorists.

Glad you didn't spoil the suspense by saying which know-nothing party is number 2.

No, no, no, no! I have it on good authority that leverage increases profits, and risk equals reward! This is just a contrarian indicator.

I finally bought my '96 Escort wagon a few weeks ago. It took me a long time to find a good one, but now I shouldn't have to buy another car until I get too old to drive a standard (which is why the original owner of this car sold it).

It was proudly assembled at the Wayne stamping plant, so I feel pretty good about my contribution to the US economy!

No, no, no, no!

Now is the time to buy Hummers! When gas is cheap! That's why everybody is doing it!

Increased efficiency leads to more consumption, not less, often through the mechanism of lower prices.

Rebound, Backfire, and the Jevons Paradox.

Redistribution of wealth is trickier than it looks.

I thought waiting until after dark to announce what everybody already knew would happen was a nice touch.

Especially after the authorities made such a big deal about not wanting people to protest at night the last time around.

I am fine with Missouri burning to the ground, and I am glad the Royals got stomped in the World Series.

Obama can exercise his veto hand

Say what?

Obama is practically wetting himself in anticipation of the opportunity to sign "bipartisan" legislation to dismantle social security and medicare, bomb more wedding parties in east Africa and southwest Asia, set up a "New Bracero" immigration reform program so tech companies can pay people with advanced degrees $1.21 an hour, make bankers permanently immune from criminal prosecution, the list goes on and on.

Voice in the head is one of the main things cognitive behavioral therapy deals with, in a very straightforward and practical way. One of the nice things about it is you can tell if it's working pretty quickly.

I second poic's comment. A few basic cognitive behavioral concepts (and a few years of exposure to my crazy bio-dad before he died) helped me get a lot of my anxiety and mood swings under control.

The main point of religion is to test loyalty and enforce conformity by requiring people to engage in public statements and actions demonstrating belief in absurdities. The more absurd the better from that standpoint.

That's my oversimplified version of Roy Rappaport. I think it's a good working model.

Was there a baseball game tonight?

I watched the Suns vs. Clippers game, which was decent for pre-season.

I'm not buying anything that requires an "account" until the government finishes reforming Wall Street.


But seriously folks, I'm one of the lucky ones. Retirement planning is much easier if you don't expect humans to survive to your scheduled retirement date.

Unfortunately we can't seem to engage our existing laid-off biotech work force in science.

Engaging kids in science is a con job if they are going to take on a ton of debt and then get hired for ten or fifteen years and discarded before the debt is paid off, which is pretty much the current model.

I don't think they're allowed to do it in Tuskeegee anymore.

Although I guess that's just a question of balancing the risks.

[P]erhaps we have not come as far down the road as we(me) thought. Or we're regressing as a result of the destruction of the education system and the blue collar workforce.

Both. And two entrenched political parties owned by bankers and dedicated to making sure there is no hope or change. Ever.

Nothing but more regression in sight until well after the next major population bottleneck.

I think the "sparklebutch" thing has legs if anyone is looking for a trend to follow.

It arguably describes me from about 19-23, but that was back in the 80's.

I agree Africa is probably the future, but perhaps too far in the future for an old man like me. I have friends, acquaintances and former clients from Ivory Coast, Liberia, Cameroon, Uganda, Ethiopia, Eritrea, Sudan and Somalia. They all speak English now, and most spoke at least a little before they left. I am not planning on learning Arabic, but Swahili might make some sense (in the north anyhow).

I would be interested to know more about the indigenous languages, but Cameroon alone has 230 according to Wikipedia. I asked my most recent client from Cameroon about her parents' language and she can't tell me the name of it. It's just the language they spoke in her parents' village. It's hard to see how an outsider could do more than learn a little bit about how all these languages relate to each other.

I'm not sure increasing to 5 billion is a good thing. But they will figure that out for themselves one way or another, probably long after I am gone. Meanwhile President Obama will do everything he can to keep the numbers down by droning wedding parties in the north and east.

What is the object fo the World Wildlife Fund?

To prevent the World Wrestling Federation from selling umbrellas?

Democracy is fake for reasons that have nothing to do with the moon landing.

Just curious - does anyone here think U.S. American democracy has one more round of meaningful reform left in it, or is all the meaningful stuff going to happen in China in the next 20 years? I sure as hell can't see any reason for hope emanating from D.C., especially after Obama went out of his way the last few years to make "hope" and "change" into the mental equivalent of ebola.

I'm trying to decide whether to spend an hour a day with my old Mandarin textbooks in 2015.

It sounds like we have a lot in common. I've been training myself to live a little more in the moment and be more of a regular person.

I think the key is to have sufficient reading material in the loo every morning.

Is that Mitt Romney playing Officer Lockstock?


Have you never been happy just to hear your song?

YouTube - Everybody's Got the Right 

But Gail Zappa won't re-release "An Evening With Wild Man Fischer."

Life is unfair.

I only have about five dollars left in my Ameritrade account due to various bells ringing over the last couple of years.

So I guess I should borrow money to go short then?

I think what we need to do is give the ISIS fighters two divisions worth of American heavy weapons. Oh wait, apparently they already have two divisions worth of American heavy weapons! Well that makes them even more dangerous!

What I mean is, let's give two divisions worth of heavy weapons to somebody else in the region who says they'll fight AGAINST Sunni fundamentalists. Oh, wait, umm,

What I mean is let's sell weapons out of a Libyan diplomatic mission to people who we kind of think might be our allies, except, er, ah, ummm

Wait, just give me a minute, I'll think of something....

Historians won't call it anything because there won't be any historians. Humans are done.

YouTube - The Humans Are Dead - Full version

Cracker and Camper Van Beethoven were here the other night. They are pretty good for old guys.

Out of nowhere? Defies historical patterns?

Um, we're the ones who keep bombing indiscriminately, flooding the area with weapons and then wondering how the weapons end up in the hands of bad guys who don't like us. Over and over and over. And the solution is more bombing and more weapons.

It's called a self-licking ice cream cone, and it is the only thing our national security geniuses are good at.

Jas is such an optimist!

He's projecting the 14 year moving average for GDP growth will stay positive through 2021.

I bet it goes negative by 2018 at the latest.

If there's anyone around to measure it.

Probably the 20+ percent correction in September-October.

I dunno - the Supreme Court?

Naah, probably not.

Oh well, I'm comfortable. That's what matters, right?

I don't think the Republicans would have much interest in investigating a conspiracy to depopulate Africa.

Kind of like they dropped the Benghazi issue when it became clear the CIA was running Ollie North style arms sales out of there, and then the intelligence committee issued a gratuitous finding that we definitely were NOT conducting arms sales out of the Benghazi station.

Weaponized ebola? Wonder who coulda dunnit? I guess if only Nixon could go to China, it makes sense that only Obama could depopulate Africa.

I'm 51 and I figured my chances of making it to three-score and ten before the human population shrank by 2 or 3 orders of magnitude would be about 50-50.

But I won't be too surprised if we crap out this year or next.

I have 100% confidence that our leaders are only interested in keeping the financial gravy train rolling for the 1%.

Nothing of consequence will be done about climate change, ocean acidification, desertification, rising sea levels, antibiotic resistance, creeping fascism, or any other significant threat facing humans and the rest of the planet.

Maybe that stuff is all hoaxes and everything will be fine, but I wouldn't bet on it to the extent of having children myself.

Demographics schmemographics. Extinction applies to everyone regardless of age, creed or national origin.

Humans will be extinct (or at least the population reduced by 2 orders of magnitude) within 50 years, and certainly long before the number of centenarians equals the number of newborns.

But hey, good news, the economy is OK so we're producing and consuming more carbon!

If only crazed individuals with guns were our biggest problem.

Stonekettle Station: Absolutely Nothing


Nothing can stop a bad guy with a gun except a Vermont hillbilly with a knife.

I am not going to discuss what I am hoarding until I get one of these.

Oh wait.

BBC News - US Secret Service seeks Twitter sarcasm detector

Family fights cops after knives nixed at fun park - Yahoo News

Oh the injustice!

Where is the NKA (National Knifle Association) when you need them?

Aha, Dave Frishberg. That makes sense.

RIF wrote:

That's why evolution has to have extinctions. I wish I knew exactly when the next Great Reset was coming, but it can't be far off.

Fixed It For Ya

Is anybody reading Piketty?

I've just started, but so far it is surprisingly stimulating. I classified it as a bathroom book because I didn't think I could sit and read a big chunk at one time. Now I send emails to myself during the day with ideas based on the 3-4 pages I read on the toilet that morning.

OK, feel free to share your less TMI reactions.

Just got back from the Guided By Voices show. Very good.

Pollard made it through the whole set list and multiple encores without falling down.

Hungarians especially hate future perfect tense.

"Going to go? That's the stupidest thing I've ever heard."