Recent comments by JP

Fortunately, there's two days left for The January Effect to take over.

poicv2.0 wrote:

Holy crap! I go away for a meeting and someone here let's krakken out of the dungeon!

So have you learned your lesson?

FTA: Whitney added that when that transition involves "significantly less leverage with real manufacturing and productivity, there are going to be growing pains."

What?! No "Lever up, Bitchez!"? What kind of crank has she turned into?!

Stop hiding money offshore, IRS warns tax cheats - Yahoo Finance

I can't wait to seem them go after corporations, who are people after all.

lawyerliz wrote:

I can give you a lpo box number on merritt Island.

LLiz is going IPO! the investment bankers go wild

sm_landlord wrote:

Quantitative Wetting.

New Keyboard

LOL, I posted already... here it is:

So $600M allotted for "rebalancing". Guess that it costs $25K per employee to fire/layoff/rightsize/rebalance, works out to 24K employees. at $10K/employee it works out to 60K.

As near as I can tell, IBM just tried to say Cringely is out in left field because he's calling for 125K people and they've allotted money for a mere 25-60K.

No matter how you cut it, that's a lot of heads being chopped off.

Comment by JP from thread 'Lawler: D.R. Horton reports Home Sales Soared Last Quarter'

Cinco-X wrote:

There's also cost to laying folks off.

ISTR they had taken a $600M charge in expectation of the cough workforce rebalancing.

poicv2.0 wrote:

Or do you actually have to meet your target?

Have you never worked in a big company?

yuan wrote:

Janet Yellen's salary: ~$201,000

It's more of a work-study stipend. Her salary will be substantial after graduation.

Still on track for a rate hike mid-year?!
A great day for Dooooooooooooooom!!! !

I am currently of the opinion that there is a reasonable chance the Fed is wrong on the third point

I think he's missing the bigger point: If after nearly a decade of free money and 3 rounds of QE, if they can't claim the ability to raise interest rates the Fed will lose a chunk of credibility.

Something like 0.25 to 1% won't cause that much damage and will continue the pretense of being on top of it.


Cinco-X wrote:


My parents use the service. It originally blocked my biz phone calling them, but once that was fixed, no more problems.

The only thing it doesn't block well: Robocallers who spoof the CallerID to be yourself. Since my Dad and I have the same name, this called a problem (they thought I might be calling.) Now I just use the biz ID to call them.

Cinco-X wrote:

Teens need to get a life...

Unlike us here on HCN.

ResistanceIsFeudal wrote:

But I am!

Take a number, pal.

Yeah, not exactly Dropbox's finest moment. I can't believe I actively avoid using their service because of such a tenuous connection, but I do.

You have something against a work program for all those unemployed Kremlinologists?

Edit: Yoringe Shakes Tiny Fist of Fury

HCN is about to get more popular.

To the powers that be: My price to become a paid basher is extremely reasonable.

8) Total cheapskate


Went to school with a number of people who probably were on the spectrum, but there wasn't a word for it back then. That's what was motivating my curiosity so thanks for the answer.

I'm guessing there's a huge amount of survivorship bias in that.

No more than in Shiller's housing index.

Edit: But the bigger point is - Kolko is just a shill, and when he talks numbers, it is best to ignore anything he says.

Obligatory Jed Kolko quote:

trulia_economist comments on I’m Jed Kolko, Trulia’s Chief Economist and expert on the housing market. AMA!

Jed Kolko says:
When you look over the really long term, housing has tended to be roughly similar to stocks/equities. And housing has never actually been a totally safe investment. Even though the recent housing bubble and bust were severe, there have been lots of localized home-price drops over the decades.
Coming out of this housing crash, the big change is that people now realize housing is not a risk-free investment. Hopefully we'll all remember that home prices sometimes do go down, and it's important to factor in that risk when deciding whether to buy. -- Jed

Really? Shiller's plot are here:
Online Data - Robert Shiller 
Increase in real home prices since 1890s is about 40%. Increase in real stock prices since 1890s is many times that value.
Edit: Shiller is the same from Case-Shiller, after whom the S&P home index is named.

Seasonal adjustments are complex adaptive filters, and he can't get the long term trends right. I wouldn't bother quoting whether or not he thinks corrections to SA are valid.

  1. People who ski Tuckermans are nuts.
  2. The bike race up Mt Wash is also nuts. - Hillclimb Races 


Top wind gusts:
78 mph, Mount Washington, NH

You just know some crazy bastard volunteered to stay at the top (in the chained house) and measure.

Looks like Modern Farmer is pretty behind the curve itself.
- NY Times

Mike in Long Island wrote:

The snow has finally slowed. Probably @ 14" - far less than the 24 to 36 that was forecast.


How are you able to post from that pile of snow you are under?

Is this a good day to talk about the January effect?

Antipodes wrote:

Mrs. Antipodes has seen Jethro Tull in concert.

JP in New Haven, 1979 Worcester, 1984(?) and Ian alone in SF around 2003. The last one was surreal. Old dudes wearing Tull concert shirts from the 70s as well as kids under 10. Really should have gone to more of them.

Yes, the flute on Love and Rockets was Ian Anderson.

Jackdawracy wrote:

I'd never make a list of things to do, not spontaneous enough for me.

Looks like you already have:
1. Avoid making a list

Dickeylee wrote:

So could someone please explain the term 2 and 20?

If you're serious: It's the percentages that hedge-fund managers and VCs charge for managing their funds.
2% of total funds under management annually.
20% of total gains when incurred.

If you're not serious, then I'll make something up.

lawyerliz wrote:

Deflation in fuel is good.

I've said this before: When an employer knows the cost of living goes down for an employee, does that make him
a. more likely
b. less likely
c. equally likely

to offer a raise?

Haralambos wrote:

Add to his heresies he refuses to wear a tie.

All the rest I could accept, but no tie?! This man is clearly a savage.

Regardless, many thanks for the reports on the ground there.

ndk wrote:

I haven't seen anything innovative come out of any computing department in the Bay Area or Silicon Valley during my entire career, to be candid.

I think there's also been a fair amount of the seed corn being eaten, as a consequence of the startups having success. Who wants to stick around in grad-school labs when you can earn a pile of dough?

sm_landlord wrote:

You always own the founder's stock outright. Always, always, always. And you need an evergreen clause for it as well.

And just where the hell were you with that advice when I could have used it?

Edit: But really: We walked in with 20 slides and walked out with $20M. It was hard to arguing about vesting etc.

Yes, there was a lot of history of who-invented-what. If you know the history of lisp machines, there was a parallel history.

Sandy and Len ended up with the stock, Sandy was pretty clear of what she thought of Sequoia (sorry dilbert!)
Sandy Lerner: The Investor Is Not Your Friend |

My father was present at the meeting where the Universities decided to found Cisco to build their routers.

Sandy Lerner and Len Bozack were the founders, and it was an interesting case of a husband and wife team putting together what turned into a behemoth, and took money from Don Valentine (of Sequoia).

The wife and I walked into Sequoia and pitched a networking company: Inadvertantly, we were told that we invoked the ghosts of Sandy and Len. We walked out with a pile of money.

Since their marriage didn't survive the company antics, I'm glad that we were not truly haunted tho.

So $600M allotted for "rebalancing". Guess that that it costs $25K per employee to fire/layoff/rightsize/rebalance, works out to 24K employees. at $10K/employee it works out to 60K.

As near as I can tell, IBM just tried to say Cringely is out in left field because he's calling for 125K people and they've allotted money for a mere 25-60K.

No matter how you cut it, that's a lot of heads being chopped off.

Cinco-X wrote:

$600 million charge for workforce rebalancing.

New Keyboard "I'd like to emphasize that you're not fired, you're just rebalanced."

poicv2.0 wrote:

Looks like the dreaded Lochness Monster with a rising head formation on the Rubble today.

Now for the kitchen.
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BREAKING: S&P cuts Russia's credit rating to junk status of BB+

dilbert dogbert wrote:

Where would the missing elements reside?

In another anatomical part.