Recent comments by JP

josap wrote:

But if you don't start in the suit how will you ever move up to CEO and be in the 1%?

By wearing a hoodie?

bearly wrote:

Your neighbors look entertaining. 
Not sure I would them next door to me. Thanks for taking one for the team!

Not even close to the limit of what you see around here. I've never lived in a place that had so much multi-million dollar real estate within a few blocks of homeless shelters.

Firemane wrote:

"Finger on throat means death. Metaphor." (Drax the Destroyer)

Why O why did they have to use the worst music from the 70s for that movie? Every time I'd be finally getting into the world, bam, Jr High would rear its ugly head.

ResistanceIsFeudal wrote:

Do the peasants line up for bread and cabbages yet?

One street over in fact. Step Up on Second

Yoringe wrote:

nly Food when YOU eat them...

Speaking of organic food: Santa Monica makes me keep up my running habit (100mi last month, 50mi this month) because it's harvest season. You wouldn't know there's a drought out there if it weren't for the prices.

SM farmer's market = Om-nom-nom-nom

Yoringe wrote:

Organic MILF somebody else pays Trophy Maintanance

No way the trophy materials can be labeled Organic under the California Organic Foods Production Act of 1990.

KidPsych wrote:

(hot, my haircutter assures me)

Hmmm. When my gray hair started popping out, my hair person offered to color it. Get off my lawn!

But really, I've never seen so much facial plastic surgery as in SM. The sad part is that when I notice, it usually means something went slightly askew.

Bubblisimo Gerkinov wrote:

Trophy wife taxidermy

New Keyboard

I'm so glad that the TBTF episode has knocked WF all the way down to #7.

Outsider wrote:

We have a plastic-based economy.

You should come to Santa Monica: We have a silcone-based economy.

Rickkk wrote:

the nonpartisan CBO said the U.S. government’s deficit for fiscal 2014 will be $506 billion, or 2.9% of gross domestic product.

Note that the congressional Office of Technology Assessment was shut down for providing relatively unbiased advice, thus earning no friends in congress when budget time rolled around.

Bubblisimo Gerkinov wrote:

Typical Poe apologist heresy.

The only thing I hate more than being insulted is not understanding the insult.
(Poe? As in Edgar Allen? It was cognac at his grave I thought.)

Bubblisimo Gerkinov wrote:

The person who introduced me to good single malt told me to drink it neat, and I did, and I liked it, and I never looked back.

That works until you meet cask-strength. Then I had to overcome my bigotry and extremism by adding water.

(somewhere around 40% the alcohol kills your sense of taste. It's truly much better diluted below.)

Everyone is drinking from a quaich tonight?

This, however, is just Slok's view. The Deutsche Bank "house view," per the firm's equity strategy team led by David Bianco sees the S&P 500 finishing 2014 at 1,850.

DB is in the :catastrophant: camp. Who knew.

Nemo wrote:

Wait, how many derivatives is that?


One for the "slow further". 1/2 for the YOY, which is the derivative * constant \Delta T (more commonly called subtraction)

resusitate wrote:

It’s extremely difficult for an underwater homeowner to list their home for sale and the wide disparities among generations have “ripple effects” throughout the housing market, the report concluded. It’s a trickle-down effect, starting with middle-aged homeowners, says Zillow chief economist Stan Humphries. Baby boomers may not be able to find buyers who want to upgrade to bigger homes as Generation Xers are mired in negative equity, he says, while millennials can’t move into the more affordable starter homes currently occupied by Generation Xers..*

Remember when we had the choice whether to rip the band-aid off quickly or slowly? So now the MSM is realizing which decision was made?

picosec wrote:

Thanks yuan and JP. For a while there I thought the world had ended and I was the only one left.

I don't know about yuan, but I'm just a AI bot that's gone astray.

But who wants to live in a old boomer residence? Ick.

poicv2.0 wrote:

// throws chicken bones on the floor and reads bone layout and chicken entrails to ascertain home value

The BLS question for OER does not specify how the homeowner determines the value, merely that he determines the value.

So your method is completely valid and would be entered accordingly, according to the BLS methodology.

Not entirely sure which aspect you mean.

While the 10 yr may correlate to mortgage rates, by inclusion of median mortgage payment (for example), it would have signaled that it was time to raise rates sooner.

Or if you mean: Short term doesn't affect mortgages - while the mortgage rate may not change much, the greater economy is susceptible to short term rates. As rising rates are signaled, then corresponding plans get made in hiring, investment etc.

JP wrote:

And there are billions of dollars tied to this stat.

When you think about it: If there had been a sensible inclusion of housing in CPI, then the 2005 housing bubble would have sent inflation through the roof, which would have caused the Fed to raise interest rates a whole lot sooner, which in turn would have prevented the worst of the excess.

IMHO it really is a mess of a measurement.

Yeah, it's a big can o worms:

The OER and Rent indexes have the largest weights of the 211 item categories (item strata) that comprise the CPI market basket. As of December 2008 their shares of the total weight (their relative importances) in the CPI for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), were 24.433 percent and 5.957 percent, respectively.

Got that? 24% of the CPI-U is based on the question “If someone were to rent your home today, how much do you think it would rent for monthly, unfurnished and without utilities?” (josap's deep analysis above is 100% correct) and 6% is based on actual rent.

This naturally reflects the fact that only 6/24 = 1/4 of the population rents in urban settings.

And there are billions of dollars tied to this stat.

Rob Dawg wrote:

Price increases without inflation. Is this a Great Country or what?

I have been trying to figure out the economic miracle of OER for years now.

Can anyone point me in the direction of those banks awarding LTV of 200%? TIA

KidPsych wrote:

Mine was so dull that one my committee members fell asleep during my defense.

My defense happened the day after this: San Diego State University shooting - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia 

I show up to the room, and someone had taped the NYT article to the door. I was tempted to open with "Let's hold a moment of silence for that poor, poor graduate student who was driven over the edge by his committee yesterday."

I elected not to, demonstrating restraint against all of my baser instincts.

Pigged ResistanceIsFeudal wrote:

JP wrote:

Behind every cloud is a potential storm

And an earthquake can occur on a cloudless sunny day. Dooooooooooooooom!!!

As for kolko's weighted adjustment: The usual adaptive filter, X-ARIMA, is well-grounded in signal processing theory.

If you are going to willy-nilly substitute an ad-hoc algo just to eliminate one period that was particularly painful, it would probably be better to go back to raw data.

In real terms, and as a price-to-rent ratio, prices are mostly back to early 2000 levels.

All of them well above the 1989 bubble. Facepalm

shill wrote:

Fairchild Semiconductor closing Utah plant

Pretty sure that is the one skillset the current Fairchild CEO is good at.

City-by-city look at home prices in June, including the slowdown in San Francisco - Capitol Report - MarketWatch

• The year-on-year advance was lower for every city — the first time that’s happened since February 2008. Shock

• The annual gain for San Francisco has slowed from 18.4% in April to 12.9% in June. Shock

• Nationally, prices are down 17% from their peak. Shock

Drawing a straight line through the current decline in Case-Shiller price means YOY will be negative in the beginning of 2015. Shock


On Topic: I'm sure that 6.0 is only going to increase property values up by Tom Stone. Rose Colored Glasses

KidPsych wrote:

Hmmm. Three people all from or currently living in SM on the same thread.

I assume this means we will have to challenge each other to a duel. Is that a truel?

Actually, it's about time for me to kill myself for the night. Tired Nytol

KidPsych wrote:

A younger generation I sense doesn't care about our car culture.

Hey, I'm 50 and trying to figure out how to eliminate the last 1000 miles/year that I drive.

Once you leave it behind, you don't miss it.

sdtfs wrote:

Outsider wrote:

Goods used to be durable, now with company cannibalization, they're fragile.

Yes. Fragile.
Kind of close to the edge, I suppose. A roundabout way of paying five percent for nothing. Just another long distance runaround, putting me into a bad mood for a day. Lucky for me I have the fish and the heart of the sunrise when I look to the south side of the sky and then I think we have heaven and cans and Brahms.

On a scale of 1 to 10, this reply rates 90125.

Outsider wrote:

I used to have goods. Now I just have bads.

Are your bads durable?

The median sales price of new houses sold in July 2014 was $269,800; the average sales price was $339,100.

I weep for price-to-median-income.

Bubblisimo Gerkinov wrote:

They let Alan Dershowitz teach ethics?!?!?!?!?!?!

The implication when he told the story was that it was a colleague. He's more constitutional law.

I chose 2020-4 cuz there's no way I'm sticking around on this website until 2025 just to collect my points.

1 currency now -yogi wrote:

gruntled wrote:
I understand Harvard (and others) teach ethics to MBA's.

A story from Alan Dershowitz: The final exam for a Harvard Law ethics class was two parts. The first part was in one room, then it was a small walk to a different room with a second part. The prof hired two actors to act out a mugging during the walk between the two rooms.

All students hurried by and sat down quietly in the second room.

Blackhalo wrote:

Something about the unforgiving nature of code, in that it does not care how you are dressed, weather or not you have an Ivy degree, or if you have a recommendation from one of the top 3 consulting firms.

Hell, I'd bet large sums of money that the quality of the code is inversely proportional to the dollar value of the coder's wardrobe.

Rob Dawg wrote:

Drought related.

Looks like we're gonna need a better icon. Blame it on the snow

Cinco-X wrote:

The White House Gives Up on Making Coders Dress Like Adults

Yes, because only adults wear jacket and ties in 90+ degree weather with Virginia-levels of humidity. Facepalm

Nemo wrote:


I used to know what that word meant, now I have to google it.

And: Data details in Monday’s report showed that the median price of new homes in July rose to $269,800, up 2.9% from a year earlier.

Faster than inflation rise, sales drop. Dooooooooooooooom!!!