Recent comments by JP

"Yum!" said the Do Not Feed The Troll . :laterol: for now.

Rob Dawg wrote:

Bleach and ammonia.

The fact that is they are the only requirements for eradication of nosocomial c-diff infections should tell us everything we need to know too.

resusitate wrote:

Capitalism, globalization, automation, technology erode our ability to earn.

That seriously depends on which side of the table you're on.

Speaking of which, off to the :bitmines:

Sebastian wrote:

The Great Depression wasn't originally called "Great," either.

Well, not until President Hoover called it that during 1931.

yuan wrote:

Russian media report 'invasion of Ukraine'

Clearly the Russian media is just a tool of the US. Why can't you find any unbiased reports of the invasion?

Nemo wrote:

If I could borrow from the Fed at 0% and lend to the Treasury at greater than 0%, I think even I could make money

When you think about it, it's a economic miracle that there is a difference between the rates offered by the Fed and return on Treasuries.

Everyone who has access should just borrow the max and bid up Treasuries until the two rates are equal.

15:40: BBC Monitoring President Poroshenko says the situation in the east is "difficult, but under control" and there is no reason to panic, Ukraine's Unian news agency reports.

THERE IS NO REASON TO PANIC!!!!

BarleyReturns wrote:

futs now -62 - sell on the news?

Unless it's a bond, in which case: Buy. 2.33!

Bubblisimo Gerkinov wrote:

Doomers have testicles?

Ah. So catastrophant is the feminine of doomer.

Sebastian wrote:

catastrophants.

Is there a difference between doomer and catastrophant?

ResistanceIsFeudal wrote:

He's gathering his forces...

Gnomish Sauron. Dooooooooooooooom!!!

josap wrote:

But if you don't start in the suit how will you ever move up to CEO and be in the 1%?

By wearing a hoodie?

bearly wrote:

Your neighbors look entertaining.
http://www.stepuponsecond.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/la-1499430-me-0818-lopezbeverly-1-gf-jpg-20130820.jpeg 
Not sure I would them next door to me. Thanks for taking one for the team!

Not even close to the limit of what you see around here. I've never lived in a place that had so much multi-million dollar real estate within a few blocks of homeless shelters.

Firemane wrote:

"Finger on throat means death. Metaphor." (Drax the Destroyer)

Why O why did they have to use the worst music from the 70s for that movie? Every time I'd be finally getting into the world, bam, Jr High would rear its ugly head.

ResistanceIsFeudal wrote:

Do the peasants line up for bread and cabbages yet?

One street over in fact. Step Up on Second

Yoringe wrote:

nly Food when YOU eat them...

Speaking of organic food: Santa Monica makes me keep up my running habit (100mi last month, 50mi this month) because it's harvest season. You wouldn't know there's a drought out there if it weren't for the prices.

SM farmer's market = Om-nom-nom-nom

Yoringe wrote:

Organic MILF somebody else pays Trophy Maintanance

No way the trophy materials can be labeled Organic under the California Organic Foods Production Act of 1990.

KidPsych wrote:

(hot, my haircutter assures me)

Hmmm. When my gray hair started popping out, my hair person offered to color it. Get off my lawn!

But really, I've never seen so much facial plastic surgery as in SM. The sad part is that when I notice, it usually means something went slightly askew.

Bubblisimo Gerkinov wrote:

Trophy wife taxidermy

New Keyboard

I'm so glad that the TBTF episode has knocked WF all the way down to #7.

Outsider wrote:

We have a plastic-based economy.

You should come to Santa Monica: We have a silcone-based economy.

Rickkk wrote:

the nonpartisan CBO said the U.S. government’s deficit for fiscal 2014 will be $506 billion, or 2.9% of gross domestic product.

Note that the congressional Office of Technology Assessment was shut down for providing relatively unbiased advice, thus earning no friends in congress when budget time rolled around.

Bubblisimo Gerkinov wrote:

Typical Poe apologist heresy.

The only thing I hate more than being insulted is not understanding the insult.
(Poe? As in Edgar Allen? It was cognac at his grave I thought.)

Bubblisimo Gerkinov wrote:

The person who introduced me to good single malt told me to drink it neat, and I did, and I liked it, and I never looked back.

That works until you meet cask-strength. Then I had to overcome my bigotry and extremism by adding water.

(somewhere around 40% the alcohol kills your sense of taste. It's truly much better diluted below.)

Everyone is drinking from a quaich tonight?

This, however, is just Slok's view. The Deutsche Bank "house view," per the firm's equity strategy team led by David Bianco sees the S&P 500 finishing 2014 at 1,850.

DB is in the :catastrophant: camp. Who knew.

Nemo wrote:

Wait, how many derivatives is that?

1.5

One for the "slow further". 1/2 for the YOY, which is the derivative * constant \Delta T (more commonly called subtraction)

resusitate wrote:

It’s extremely difficult for an underwater homeowner to list their home for sale and the wide disparities among generations have “ripple effects” throughout the housing market, the report concluded. It’s a trickle-down effect, starting with middle-aged homeowners, says Zillow chief economist Stan Humphries. Baby boomers may not be able to find buyers who want to upgrade to bigger homes as Generation Xers are mired in negative equity, he says, while millennials can’t move into the more affordable starter homes currently occupied by Generation Xers..*

Remember when we had the choice whether to rip the band-aid off quickly or slowly? So now the MSM is realizing which decision was made?

picosec wrote:

Thanks yuan and JP. For a while there I thought the world had ended and I was the only one left.

I don't know about yuan, but I'm just a AI bot that's gone astray.

But who wants to live in a old boomer residence? Ick.

poicv2.0 wrote:

// throws chicken bones on the floor and reads bone layout and chicken entrails to ascertain home value

The BLS question for OER does not specify how the homeowner determines the value, merely that he determines the value.

So your method is completely valid and would be entered accordingly, according to the BLS methodology.

Not entirely sure which aspect you mean.

While the 10 yr may correlate to mortgage rates, by inclusion of median mortgage payment (for example), it would have signaled that it was time to raise rates sooner.

Or if you mean: Short term doesn't affect mortgages - while the mortgage rate may not change much, the greater economy is susceptible to short term rates. As rising rates are signaled, then corresponding plans get made in hiring, investment etc.

JP wrote:

And there are billions of dollars tied to this stat.

When you think about it: If there had been a sensible inclusion of housing in CPI, then the 2005 housing bubble would have sent inflation through the roof, which would have caused the Fed to raise interest rates a whole lot sooner, which in turn would have prevented the worst of the excess.

IMHO it really is a mess of a measurement.

Yeah, it's a big can o worms:

The OER and Rent indexes have the largest weights of the 211 item categories (item strata) that comprise the CPI market basket. As of December 2008 their shares of the total weight (their relative importances) in the CPI for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), were 24.433 percent and 5.957 percent, respectively.

Got that? 24% of the CPI-U is based on the question “If someone were to rent your home today, how much do you think it would rent for monthly, unfurnished and without utilities?” (josap's deep analysis above is 100% correct) and 6% is based on actual rent.

This naturally reflects the fact that only 6/24 = 1/4 of the population rents in urban settings.

And there are billions of dollars tied to this stat.
Facepalm

Rob Dawg wrote:

Price increases without inflation. Is this a Great Country or what?

I have been trying to figure out the economic miracle of OER for years now.

Can anyone point me in the direction of those banks awarding LTV of 200%? TIA

KidPsych wrote:

Mine was so dull that one my committee members fell asleep during my defense.

My defense happened the day after this: San Diego State University shooting - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia 

I show up to the room, and someone had taped the NYT article to the door. I was tempted to open with "Let's hold a moment of silence for that poor, poor graduate student who was driven over the edge by his committee yesterday."

I elected not to, demonstrating restraint against all of my baser instincts.

Pigged ResistanceIsFeudal wrote:

JP wrote:
:catastrophant:

Behind every cloud is a potential storm

And an earthquake can occur on a cloudless sunny day. Dooooooooooooooom!!!

As for kolko's weighted adjustment: The usual adaptive filter, X-ARIMA, is well-grounded in signal processing theory.

If you are going to willy-nilly substitute an ad-hoc algo just to eliminate one period that was particularly painful, it would probably be better to go back to raw data.