Recent comments by JP


I warned you many times that the end was coming. If not this century, then definitely the next. But did you listen?!

Predictions are easy. It's the timing that's hard.

This is the Final July?! Shock

robj wrote:

"What, pray tell, is Texas Weird? "
Austin. It's a little pocket of libruhlassm in the midst of the New Confederacy of Dunces.

I love that you don't even consider mentioning Kinky Friedman.

Nemo wrote:

I seriously thought about it, but regrettably, I did not.

Oh well, then Beer instead of Real French Sparkly

I'm too chicken to play. That, and I feel disconnected from the insanity in the valley lately.

So Nemo, did you close out that short when Yellen claimed social networks were overvalued?
If so, Real French Sparkly

mr_clueless wrote:

i heart doug short
Moving Averages: Month-End Update
he offers market timing strategies!

FTA: The Psychology of Momentum Signals

Timing works because of a basic human trait. People imitate successful behavior. When they hear of others making money in the market, they buy in. Eventually the trend reverses. It may be merely the normal expansions and contractions of the business cycle. Sometimes the cause is more dramatic — an asset bubble, a major war, a pandemic, or an unexpected financial shock. When the trend reverses, successful investors sell early. The imitation of success gradually turns the previous buying momentum into selling momentum.

Has Doug really never checked the autocorrelation? or does he not understand what it means?

robj wrote:

Now all we have are we left-behinds upon HCN.

I'm pretty sure we have the same number of left-behinds and right-behinds here. Rarely does one have only have one cheek, no matter how many times the other cheek has been turned.

BarleyReturns wrote:

OMG JP the sky is falling.......


4:02p BREAKING Dow turns negative for year, down 0.1% in 2014 Dooooooooooooooom!!!

Geeze, not even off-the-lows.

BarleyReturns wrote:

Time to go 3x inverse

The Blue Pill The Blue Pill
The Blue Pill The Red Pill

MikeCLT wrote:

I'll be ridding my backyard of the little buggers this weekend.

Sad They're just being squirrels. It's what squirrels do.

SM, thought this might amuse you: A guy outside our appt was walking his dog and made this high-pitched sound at one of our female squirrels (we call her Sylvia). To my amazement, Sylvia ran over to the guy, keeping some distance from the dog, despite the fact that she usually just runs up a tree anytime there is a dog in view.

It was clear that she recognized him, so I asked for details: He lives around the block on California, and says that there are about 35 little furry guys that feed from his place. He has some walnut supplier from over the mountains.

This is the third other person on 3rd that I've found is feeding them. There is no hunger on my street. Smile

Firemane wrote:

Found this via a Weird Al tweet.
Language School Blogger Fired for Writing About Homophones

Clearly, homophonia conversion therapy would have useful applications here.

Where's poic to tell me that everything will be Its not easy being green before sundown?

Nytol for now.

MikeCLT wrote:

The only time you will witness this phenomenon in your life.

As long as you ignore:
October 2004
July 2005
December 2006
August 2008
May 2009
January 2010
October 2010
July 2011
March 2013
August 2014
May 2015
January 2016
July 2016
March 2019
May 2020
January 2021
October 2021
July 2022
March 2024

And that's the short list.

"Please don't cut our budget. Please don't cut our budget. Please don't cut our budget.
Pretty please?"

- NY Times

zephyrum wrote:

Most religious practices have practical roots.

Like circumcision, for example.

bearly wrote:

  • :blame it on Ramadan:

It's not clear that there's actual fasting going on once you account for the feasting calories after sundown.

But compare the amount of meat not being eaten by Catholics on Friday...

Mike in Long Island wrote:

What do you have against people from Puerto Rico and why do you find them funny?

As it turns out, of the Puerto Ricans I know, several are truly hilarious.

Except that one woman in college: Shows up at my door in a trenchcoat, says she's about to visit her boyfriend and needs an opinion, and opens the trenchcoat wearing the best lingerie I'd ever seen in person at that point. I told her "I think it will be a hit" except it came out more like "humana humana humana [pant pant pant]".

Then she said "thanks", closed the door and went over to her boyfriends. Facepalm x 100

PS. My dad worked in PR his whole life, which convinced me that people are hilarious.

burnside wrote:

But I think his writers were not unaware of the tease.

And were probably counting on (taking advantage of) the Muslim-o-phobes to help propagate the message.

How many here knew about it before the quote above? Not me.

energyecon wrote:

(assuming of course that all counterparties perform)

Tide goes out, swimming naked, and other metaphor cliches from Oklahoma.

I wonder if the $20B+ of CDS outstanding on Argentine government debt has Elmo! dancing in the streets.


Weekly jobless claims rose by less than expected, however the employment cost index rose due to a larger-than-expected increase in wages. Many analysts watch for wage inflation as a precursor to inflation.

Up go the interest rates.


Anyone up for a game of global nuclear-financial dominoes?

I know I know. This is a pea shooter.

sm_landlord wrote:

Here Felix Salmon's take on the impending Argentine default: 

Great article. Would love to figure out how to cross check some of it... but food calls...

Rajesh wrote:

lawyerliz wrote:
Why did they put that money in a U S bank?
The issuer gives the money to the trustee, BNY Mellon in this case, which then is responsible for distributing to bond holders.

It also pits the exchange bondholders against the hedgies. The money is clearly there, so I'm guessing they're hoping that the exchange bondholders have pictures of the hedgefund guys with underage boys, or maybe farm animals.

Rob Dawg wrote:

And the all important natural gas storage report.

And the never important Argentine default.

Not just injunctions, but incredible, magical, shrinking injunctions.

justaskin wrote:

one expects they have a hedge in place

New Keyboard

Nice article:

This possibility of default is embedded into credit contracts through the interest rate, with interest rate spreads operating as the market estimate of the probability of a default. So those who are seen as less likely to be able to repay are forced to pay higher interest rates, in both formal and informal credit transactions. A creditor who has been demanding and receiving a higher interest rate based on this probability cannot then demand full repayment as a right, since the contract reflected that very likelihood. So the ruling actually negates the basic principles upon which all credit markets function.

Any have some_investor_guy's email? I'm sure he'd have good comments... ISTR he was saying full-repayment is usually baked into the cake, just not on time.

lawyerliz wrote:

What is Argentina offering? To the hedgies?

ISTR 70% to both the exchange holders + the hedgies. Hedgies said no.
Can't find a link now.

I'm not on top of it, but fwiw:

The hedgies bought the pre-2001 debt for a song, others exchanged that debt for "exchange bonds". "exchange bond" guys agreed to a haircut, hedgies demanded payment in full.

Argentina put the June payment in the bank, saying this was for the exchange bondholders. Judge said to bank: If you distribute it, you're in contempt of court.

Everyone takes a long walk to the courthouse for a nice thorough negotiation. Has the requisite number of walk-aways from the table, and now we do the requisite past-the-deadline for negotiation.

So the real agreement is expected in the next few days. Lots of hand-wringing until then.

The usual caveat applies: Those who know, don't talk. Those who talk, don't know.

And I'm talking.

PS. All bonds issued subject to US law, which is why the US judge has any real say.

Yoringe wrote:

Chinese will be glad to Fill the Argentine $ Void....

Why would they want reals? (or cruzeros or whatever is the currency du jour of Argentina)

traderwalt wrote:

Default probably matters a lot to exporters and farmers.

Why them in particular?

sm_landlord wrote:

Whole Foods slumps after sales miss estimates - MarketWatch
Somebody poke the foodies, the economy depends on them!

Wasn't my fault. Everything we aren't spending at the farmer's market is getting spent at WF.

Residential investment increased at a 7.5% annual rate in Q2 ... This is important to follow because residential investment tends to lead the economy

Anyone have correlation plots? I'm looking at the drop in 1995 (no recession), not much of a drop in 2001 (bigass recession) and I'm wondering what the basis of the statement above is.

ResistanceIsFeudal wrote:

Banks, though, still need our help.

But of course. That's a nice little GDP growth you got there, sure would be a shame if anything were to happen to it.

Cinco-X wrote:

shill wrote:
No cinco just the FRN breaking out is all
I don't follow the FRN and other commodities. Wanna offer some more detail?

UST yields up, Bund yields down. Time for the carry trade to drive forex! Eeexelent!

lawyerliz wrote:

Happiness and joy all around.
Solid, solid solid.

I agree! Now we can raise interest rates back to sensible levels.

Cheer up, it could be worse.
US and European sanctions probably drive Russia's GDP to 0% this year.

U.S. inflation accelerates sharply in second quarter - MarketWatch

With solid GDP + inflation, you know what happens to interest rates.

Either this is a ghost Pigged or we're in The Secret Forum.