Recent comments by JP

KidPsych wrote:

Maple Bacon Biscuit from Huckleberry in Santa Monica, California | Serious Eats

Cool. I'm sometimes get to the other side of Lincoln, so I will check it out.


Mary wrote:

neither Toad's.

Sad BB King at Toads was a slice of heaven.

Mary wrote:

Bagel baking outside of NYC, the world over, sux.

Did you partake of Wooster Str when you lived near Rudy's?

Outsider wrote:

Does it fit around your big toe?

Laughing out loud

sm_landlord wrote:

OMG, what an ugly commute. Hope you don't have to do that often.

Not often enough probably. LAX-JFK now has flat-bed service, but it's not like you can ever get one of those seats with an upgrade. Just for laughs, I tried to reserve it for real money and they still had no availability. So god knows how you actually obtain that service.

sm_landlord wrote:

Bagel Factory

Thanks for the recommendation.

My supply right now comes from traveling back to CT: I take the LAX-EWR redeye, and then arrange the trains so that I get the first bagels in Penn Station. Even Penn has great bagels.

Got it, and Thelonius Monkfish will be pretty easy to remember if Mary's is ever closed...

It's not like Santa Monica has any shortage of great food places, but there are three things I haven't found here:
1. Mary's
2. New Haven Pizza
3. New York Bagels.

It's not like there's a shortage of Chinese, Italians or Jews but I just haven't found replacements. I suppose it will keep me thinner that way.

The Dooooooooooooooom!!! was so thick, you could cut it with a knife.

The only one I've ever seen that didn't break my heart was the Sonora Desert museum outside Tucson. They take only rescue cases.

Mike in Long Island wrote:

on vacation

Ug. That has suck. My mouth was watering just at the mention of it. Were you there for another sporting event for your son?

Left coast life is mostly good. Wife's health has + and - days, but generally ok. Just limiting, which is no fun for her. I on the other hand have more health than I deserve: Still running about 12 mi a week.

How's life on your side?

emergency hotdog wrote:

i'm not sure why apple fans are so resentful of the big screen.

I have an ipad and an ipad mini in the house. If I wanted another I'd buy another.

It's useful to have a small device which easily fits in your pocket. As for my wife, it's a usability issue: Her hands are not well, she went in for the 6 and walked out with a 5s because she can't use the 6.

The resentment comes from: Apple has me by the balls, I have a pile of apps paid for. Otherwise, I'd jump to the other side and get a small screen because the 6 is not the correct direction for me and my family's use.

I'm guessing they eventually figure this out and come out with the iPhone6 mini. Maybe that will be called the iphone 7.

Wilberforce wrote:

and the incentive to upgrade has to be on the services.

There's another less talked-about reason: The reliability of the phones suck. I'd just stick with my iPhone 4 except that the power button doesn't function. When I searched, there's many boards dedicated to telling you how to work around the home or power button dying.

It's clear that the ergonomic dept at Apple rules the reliability dept with an iron fist, lots of people have the problem.

poicv2.0 wrote:

Oh wait! For a second I thought I was on ZeroBrain.

OK, I got curious: I haven't taken a trip over there in a while. This was the best I could find-

SPOOL wrote:

I remember a fairly in-depth discussion about the wisdom of buying nickels in bulk direct from the US Mint.

LOL, I had forgotten that one.

Edit: And there was something about the dollar coins too IIRC. The mint had them at a discount, but you weren't supposed to just take them to the bank to deposit. The mint wanted you to pay for coffee etc with them.

KidPsych wrote:

how to go from house to house to clear them of any undesirables during "go time."

Then again, I remember conversations on early HCN about how to choose your house so that (among other things) you had clear lines of sight and opportunities for crossfire.

Ever since then, my wife and I refer to this board in conversation as the guns and spam board.

Geez. At least there is a start menu. Show some gratitude for chrissakes.

poicv2.0 wrote:

Marketwatch 9/30/2014 "Stocks soar as Ebola count beats whisper number of 1000"

Liar, this is on MW right now.

By the numbers: 1.4 million cases of Ebola forecast by January - Health Exchange - MarketWatch

Jackdawracy wrote:

If ebola runs rampant, having a doomstead far from the maddened crowd will be the cat's meow.

Fat Cat

Feeling kinda screwed here on third street.

lawyerliz wrote:

The odds on this happening are so low that for all practical purposes it should be ignored.

Would those odds be larger or smaller than, say, the Fed raising interest rates in the next year?

lawyerliz wrote:

Some nearby star could go nova and fry us all.

And to think some doubt your card-carrying doomer status.

Pigged Da Penguin Sez:

California becomes first state to ban plastic bags
Bet you guys are happy about that, eh? I can't wait to see them ban plastic packaging. Laughing out loud 2014: One word. Just one word. Plastics.

Haven't seen them for a long time here in SM. CA is just catching up to our little principality.

Hooray! Price-to-Rent is down to just above the housing bubble of 1989! Beer

In real terms, and as a price-to-rent ratio, prices are mostly back to early 2000 levels.

Ah, that nice rational housing market of 2000. It's so long ago I can't hardly remember what else went on that year.

FTA: "As technology continues to evolve, the FBI will investigate and bring to justice those who use illegal means to monitor and track individuals without their knowledge," said Andrew McCabe, assistant director in charge of the FBI's Washington Field Office, in the statement.

New Keyboard Hot tip, the NSA is up the street from you on the BWI Expressway.

And just so we can calibrate how mathematically sensible Jed Kolko is:

trulia_economist comments on I’m Jed Kolko, Trulia’s Chief Economist and expert on the housing market. AMA!

Jed Kolko says:
When you look over the really long term, housing has tended to be roughly similar to stocks/equities. And housing has never actually been a totally safe investment. Even though the recent housing bubble and bust were severe, there have been lots of localized home-price drops over the decades.
Coming out of this housing crash, the big change is that people now realize housing is not a risk-free investment. Hopefully we'll all remember that home prices sometimes do go down, and it's important to factor in that risk when deciding whether to buy. -- Jed

Really? Shiller's plot are here:
Online Data - Robert Shiller 
Increase in real home prices since 1890s is about 40%. Increase in real stock prices since 1890s is many times that value.
Edit: Shiller is the same from Case-Shiller, after whom the S&P home index is named.

Seasonal adjustments are complex adaptive filters, and he can't get the long term trends right. I wouldn't bother quoting whether or not he thinks corrections to SA are valid.

This was lower than the consensus forecast for a 7.5% YoY increase for the Composite 20 index, and suggests a further slowdown in price increases.

Dooooooooooooooom!!! Draw a straight line on the second graph and prices turn negative in early 2015.

[Hey, this is the depth of thinking of the high-paid wall street dudes, so I might as well do it too.]

And while I'm doing that quote thing:

OCTOBER: This is one of the peculiarly dangerous months to speculate in stocks in. The other are July, January, September, April, November, May, March, June, December, August, and February.
- Pudd'nhead Wilson's Calendar

FTA: > "I do believe it — 100 percent, I do," said Salvador Alvarez of Springville.

“The good thing about science is that it's true whether or not you believe in it.” ― Neil deGrasse Tyson

“I'm beginning to think this Neil deGrasse Tyson fellow is a serial fabricator of quotes.” — President Thomas Jefferson

OT, but Mark Twain was an awesome dude:

My Dear Sir:
But you are proceeding upon the superstition that Moral Courage and a Hankering to Learn the Truth are ingredients in the human being's makeup. Your premises being wild and foolish, you naturally and properly get wild and foolish results. If you will now reform, and in future proceed upon the sane and unchallengeable hypothesis that those two ingredients are on vacation in our race, and have been from the start, you will be able to account for some things which seem to puzzle you now.
Sincerely yours,
Riverdale-on-the-Hudson, Dec. 21, 1901.


I will do picosecond the honor of not locking his comment, no matter how much juvenile laughter is going on from my side of the internet pipe.

mr_clueless wrote:

if i do it, it will be purely for the money so i can then get off the treadmill.

Ah. Good luck with the strategy. If you have a particular company in mind, or have an idea of their capital structure, feel free to bounce it my way. I promise my commentary will be worth what you paid for it.

robj wrote:

South Park's Eric Cartman’s 4 steps to startup success

Good god, and they say no one rings a bell at the top.

mr_clueless wrote:

i'm wondering if i'm losing an opportunity here...

Doing it for the money is usually a bad idea. Odds are you are too late, unless you are there for the A round.

Doing it because you love the insanity of the valley and changing things and it makes you feel alive, well that's a different story.

mr_clueless wrote:

for employees to make money an exorbitant price is a must.

Do you have an offer?

mr_clueless wrote:

any chance the current bull market will continue for another 2-3 years? i'm thinking of taking my chances with a startup.

If serious: Have you seen recently Bill Gurley's interview and Andreson's "Tweet Storm"?

Bill Gurley: Silicon Valley Is Taking On Too Much Risk - Business Insider
Marc Andreessen on Startup Burn Rates: "Worry" - Business Insider

That said: Who knows when the Bubble, Bubble, Toil and Trouble will pop.

Edit: Shakes Tiny Fist of Fury poic roughly said the same.

For anyone that follows the venture capital market, this is a worthwhile read from a16z:
Raising Capital: This is the Advice We Give Our Founders | Andreessen Horowitz

summary = VCs are preparing their companies for the coming era where capital is not plentiful. A bit of a reoccuring theme.

And a little Dooooooooooooooom!!! from Hong Kong.
Martin Williams - Timeline Photos | Facebook

Re: Participation rate, click on the 10 yr button
Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate (CIVPART) - FRED - St. Louis Fed 

The YOY change in any year is really pretty hard to measure, given the error bars (which would be a useful addition to this graph).

So saying sideways or a little down is kind of hard to verify. That said, the noisy data are bearing it out.

Can anyone think of a more serious improvement in quality-of-life for nursing home residents? Hell, people might clamor to get in.