Recent comments by energyecon


Here in Houston the wage pressure has been very sector specific, and will almost assuredly be wilting given the -25% price movement in Curses! Oiled again!.

UPDATE 2-Audit says Bulgaria's Corpbank must write off two thirds of assets
| Reuters

YouTube - Flesh Wound Clip 

Report: Solar Is Way Worse Than Other Renewables

The report writers calculated a levelized costs—the estimated economic cost per megawatt-hour of electricity generated using each technology. And it didn't end well for solar. According to the analysis, new coal and natural gas plants cost just over $64 per megawatt-hour; onshore wind $102; nuclear power $115; and utility-scale solar plants $127.

source doc:

Figure S-7 is the punch line - note these are costs for generating electricity (oil is there as well and by far the most costly which is why almost nobody on the planet is doing that)

New Keyboard When it is helping your industry it is crony, when it is helping my industry, it is clear eyed policy helping 'Murica!

Always wrong, but never in doubt... though honestly, I actually prefer Benito and his endless supply of chips to the infinite gusher of haterade...

Dear glod in heaven but you all so deserve each other...

So, with a 2.8% unemployment rate, wages in North Dakota must be sky rocketing, right?

Along with the cost of living, yes.

“She kept pushing me even though I was saying: ‘I can’t qualify, I’m poor, I’m just a kid.’” To his surprise, he found the bank would indeed lend him money.

Suzanne is in Vancouver!


[insert Princess Bride clip here]

Market sel loff triggered! Snark

Snark all you's comin'...

Just make sure you got my OBS covered!

Mortgage rates are too damn high! (ht Rajesh)

Comment by energyecon from thread 'Goldman on 2015: "Potential Renewed Uncertainty around Fiscal Deadlines"'

[sigh] Nigeria put it down with a total of a 20 cases, using basic contact tracing, monitoring and isolation.

NB: my post from over a week ago

Always dependable in misrepresenting another's position with a generous side of haterade...

Training? What do railroads have to do with this?

I said, "It's about 7:45" Get off my lawn!

Yep, along with insufficient training.

Something a little picante for the home stretch of the Brazilian presidential elections:

- NY Times

Rhetorical question, in that case...

One other thing that is very instructive to consider is the second plot from Hamilton's post, which displays production from KSA - look at the early 80's - when they fought the last war at one point they were holding something like 8 million barrels a day of production offline to try and support prices. When they got good and pissed, they opened the spigots and redefined 'oil glut' until the rest of OPEC bent a knee.

By their reports, they have 2 million barrels a day of spare oil production capacity currently. What is also different this time is the continuing ramp up of oilfield service company capacity that they have been engaging since about 2005 or so. So while they undoubtedly hold the strongest hand in the supply game, anyone who equates that to their position in the mid-80's is mistaken.

Thanks sum - things will continue to get more interesting...

Oil futes as well would be my bet... before they shocked the conventional wisdom by not cutting supply.

The US tight oil producers will roughly shake out into two groups, as a function of debt load. Some are geared to the hilt, and others are not 'skinny dipping' per Warren Buffet. It also remains unclear how far out the tide will go, and for how long in terms of oil price declines.

Guaranteed right now in oil companies large and small, the annual business plan and budgeting exercise is being re-run with lower prices and lower cash flows to work with for 2015 (in 2008, the company I worked at worked through something like 5 iterations of that exercise as prices truly crashed from their July 2008 peak).

What also remains to be seen is the impact on the oil rig count, and subsequent deferred production. What Hamilton briefly references is the structural change for the onshore oil & gas game regarding the timeframe (and dollar amount) of irreversible investment decisions, where an offshore platform is one decision that takes years to bring on production and may go several billion dollars cumulative cash flow negative before you turn on the first well, while onshore has become 'storage in the ground', with hundreds of $7 -$10 million decisions once a land position is obtained with sufficient drilling locations.

When is Venezuela going to default on their bonds?

Falling Oil Prices Threaten Venezuelan Economy With Default

Some analysts have worried for months that Venezuela was on the brink of a default. President Nicolas Maduro has been grappling with chronic shortages, soaring inflation and a dearth of foreign currency that has hit importers particularly hard. In recent months, he has tried to curb some of these problems by cracking down on smuggling at the border, floating an increase in gas prices (currently the world’s cheapest), making moves toward the sale of U.S.-based oil subsidiary Citgo and trying to stabilize currency exchange markets. But Caracas-based consultancy Ecoanalitica estimated that Venezuela still owed about $21 billion to domestic companies and airlines.

Oil makes up around 95 percent of Venezuela’s export revenue, and Caracas has used its extensive oil reserves to sell it at preferential prices to allies in the region. But the state-owned oil company, Petroleos de Venezuela S.A., has been accused of mismanagement and a bloated payroll. Venezuela reportedly began importing crude oil from Algeria this week.

Interesting pilot of industrial scale up - ethanol from cellulosic waste materials and cogeneration - looks like about 100% cost overrun (final plant cost ~2x original estimate):

Abengoa Making Ethanol From Crop Waste at Plant in Kansas - Bloomberg

The facility in Hugoton, Kansas, can make as much as 25 million gallons of so-called cellulosic ethanol a year and will reach full production next quarter, the Seville, Spain-based company said today in a statement.

If we look at fuel substitution on a 1:1 basis, a 25 million gallon annual run rate will provide 68.5 thousand gallons/day or 0.02% of 2013 average daily rate:
U.S. Total Gasoline All Sales/Deliveries by Prime Supplier (Thousand Gallons per Day)

That $500 million dollars generates a barrel/day rate of 1.6K, which works out to just over $300K per daily flowing barrel - market comps have run in the $50K to $150K space depending on % oil, tax status of the buyer etc. This is for the unprocessed crude input for a liquid transportation fuel rather than that fuel as output, which suggests that this generates a higher cost fuel on unit basis but perhaps not wildly so (and not accounting for the co-gen impacts, 22 mega-watts at the full run rate). Promising.

'The oops is complete'

Or a banner proclaiming "Oops Accomplished!" and Rick can saunter out in a flight suit... it is almost Halloween after all.

So how did Nigeria stop the spread of Ebola? Hazmat suits for everyone?

Applying basic precautions and the essentially 19th century techniques of contact tracing, monitoring, and isolation. They ended up with 20 cases in their cluster.

Note that the family members who were in close contact with Mr. Duncan will have completed their monitoring period of 21 days tomorrow... how many of them are sick?

The size reduction is a big deal (as would be working fusion at whatever scale), but they issued their presser now because they are looking for partners to share the risk capital burden ala the VC model. We can expect similar capital raise moves at each successful gate, which should provide a good yardstick for their progress.

Fusion reactors still 10 years out as Lockheed Martin announces breakthrough - Business - CBC News

Lockheed Martin Corp. said earlier this week it had made a technological breakthrough in developing a power source based on nuclear fusion, but a reactor based on the technology is still years in the future.

Lockheed, a big U.S. defence contractor, predicted the first reactors based on the technology, small enough to fit on the back of a truck, could be ready for use in a decade.

The announcement was met with skepticism among scientists, as the age of fusion reactors has been 10 years off for the past five decades

.Excited About Lockheed Martin's Fusion Announcement? Let's Wait Until The Dust Settles

Can Lockheed Martin’s nuclear fusion reactor work? Some scientists doubt it. - The Washington Post