Recent comments by energyecon

energyecon wrote on Sat, 5/18/2013 - 9:40 pm (in reply to...)

burnside wrote:

I see I've misunderstood how I'm percieved here.

Fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice... you won't get fooled again!

energyecon wrote on Sat, 5/18/2013 - 8:19 pm (in reply to...)

Rickkk wrote:

WHO warns Saudi coronavirus may be spreading | Toronto Star
Sat May 18 2013
Nasty stuff.

The ECDC seems a bit twitchy as well...

http://ecdc.europa.eu/en/publications/Publications/risk-assessment-middle-east-respiratory-syndrome-coronavirus-MERS-CoV-17-may-2013.pdf

energyecon wrote on Sat, 5/18/2013 - 9:08 am (in reply to...)

adornosghost wrote:

Thanks for the heads up primary info!
It is hard wading throughout the data and propaganda.

Word. And the smoke is blown on all sides on this one, ISTM.

energyecon wrote on Sat, 5/18/2013 - 9:00 am (in reply to...)

That method of polypropylene production is quite a bit more costly than using NGLs, which has the US domestic petrochemical industry ramping up a wave of plant investment to take advantage of the lower cost feedstock from the shale gale.

energyecon wrote on Sat, 5/18/2013 - 8:57 am (in reply to...)

sportsfan wrote:

Apparently, though, Dow Chemical (DOW, U.S. NYSE) and Alcoa (AA, U.S. NYSE) are opposed to the idea. It may have something to do with having the upper hand over competition.

Things are getting a little more complicated for Dow, as they have a position in Freeport LNG IIRC

Energy Dept. OKs second license to broadly export LNG - Energy Ticker - MarketWatch

On Friday, Dow Chemical Co. called the Department of Energy’s decision a “prudent step in pursuit of a measured and balanced approach” to LNG.

“Dow will adopt a wait and see approach regarding further approvals, while continuing to advocate for transparent, sequential decisions like this one, which follow the established process and consider the cumulative impact of each permit on our overall economy,” the company said.

OK here it is:

Gas Export Approval Not Seen Signaling Flood of U.S. Permits - Businessweek

Less than a decade ago, when U.S. demand for gas looked like it might outstrip supply, Dow invested in a Freeport import terminal that would now be converted for exports. That investment may mean the company would get revenue from sales to non-U.S. customers, despite its opposition to large export levels.

Biltz said Dow isn’t investing in the multibillion-dollar effort to convert the terminal for exports.

energyecon wrote on Sat, 5/18/2013 - 8:53 am (in reply to...)

Rob Dawg wrote:

I was also referring to public policy goals. On iPhone in the CVBB so I won't be able to fully defend. Maybe not high prices but world prices is better.

But it will not, as there is no 'world price' for the natty as there is for oil due to complications of handling a gas. The result is market segmentation, as in a distinct North American market. What it will do for those producers who have access to the $10 billon+ investment LNG liquefaction requires is expose them to the higher margins of other markets. The price in the domestic market will be set by the marginal unit of production, and the vast majority of domestic producers will have no access to the export route, so we will see ballpark $5/mcf natty in the US while other countries pay $10/mcf and up.

energyecon wrote on Sat, 5/18/2013 - 8:42 am (in reply to...)

vtcodger wrote:

domestic production is around 6-8 mbpd depending on whether you count Natural Gas Liquids (Ethane,Propane,Butane) as oil. EE doesn't think they are oil (nor do I), but some information sources count them as oil.

I think the EIA stats I posted are well head liquids, which exclude the NGLs vtc mentions - typically where you see those rolled into "oil" production numbers is in the global production statistics - and they are most emphatically not oil, along with the other things they roll in including 'refinery gains'.

energyecon wrote on Sat, 5/18/2013 - 8:40 am (in reply to...)
So, it can be profitable 4-5 for some.
Interesting

Yes. A some can make money at $3 gas (mostly in the Marcellus for dry gas, or chasing well head liquids in a number of places). The latest update of the particular supply curve had flattened out, increasing the cumulative volume of gas that would be economic in that price range. There was another data point from a different outfit that supported this, which showed continuing declines in the days to drill and complete a well in almost every unconventional play in the US, which means continuing reductions in well costs - and that is really the whole game with these things - given the scale of drilling activity and the brutal decline treadmill well costs have to be low.

energyecon wrote on Sat, 5/18/2013 - 8:30 am (in reply to...)

US imports and domestic production:

Production
U.S. Field Production of Crude Oil (Thousand Barrels per Day)

Imports
4-Week Avg U.S. Imports of Crude Oil and Petroleum Products (Thousand Barrels per Day)

If you want to see how the domestic production is backing imports of light, sweet crude
Percentages of Total Imported Crude Oil by API Gravity

OPEC imports
U.S. Imports from OPEC Countries of Crude Oil and Petroleum Products (Thousand Barrels)

energyecon wrote on Sat, 5/18/2013 - 8:13 am (in reply to...)

Dawg, it is disappointing to see that tripe under your handle. Here's the deal - if producers are losing money, eventually they will stop - either by getting over the stupid or running out of OPM. Period. So the illusion of entitlement to low cost natural gas is just that.

That being said, the paywall consulting data I see shows a supply response that just gets more elastic, in other words for the natty there is a metric sh!t ton of it to be produced in the $4 -$5 per MCF range and that supply curve gets longer and flatter...

So if $5 natty is 'high priced' energy, yes it is on the horizon and regardless of the export projects that get approved. Though on an energy equivalent basis that is the ungodly price of $30/bbl oil (though historically the price ratio has run closer to a 10x-12x range, currently in the +20x range and $5/mcf gas would be right around there at current WTI).

energyecon wrote on Fri, 5/17/2013 - 6:31 pm

Marine, dog reunited in surprise ceremony - Yahoo! News

energyecon wrote on Fri, 5/17/2013 - 4:58 pm (in reply to...)

Nemo wrote:

Maybe the Fed should lower interest rates

Interest rates are too damn high!

Fed has not lowered interest rates enough: Kocherlakota - Yahoo! Finance

energyecon wrote on Thu, 5/16/2013 - 2:27 pm (in reply to...)
Shill, tongue in cheek if it isn't clear; got any adding jobs to increase profits stories?

Any of the many stories on the oil & gas industry scrambling for qualified petrotechnical staff in particular, but pretty much all across the board... there were some interesting ones from the recent Offshore Technology Conference (dryfly made the trip) let me see if I can dig up a linky:

Here is one example, Statoil rented out the entire stadium (the soccer team's home, but still you get the idea):
YouTube - Statoil OTC Stadium Event Video Invitation

energyecon wrote on Thu, 5/16/2013 - 2:18 pm (in reply to...)
Energy you see this>?

RBS to Cut More Jobs - WSJ.com

HSBC May Cut 14K Jobs in Cost-Cutting Effort | Fox Business

Elevators, steelmaker ThyssenKrupp announces job cuts, writedown on US steel plants | Fox News

Thanks, that is a no, yes and no - looks like TK is getting stepped on in the steel game in particular.

energyecon wrote on Thu, 5/16/2013 - 2:14 pm (in reply to...)
The strange thing is sub $3 gas is profitable except it isn't profitable after VC and debt service.

Depends on the company, small PE backed outfits probably not, but their whole business model outruns their cashflows as they aggregate and de-risk a position of sufficient scale to attract a larger purchaser... the land game of getting the leases done is qutie labor intensive, so there can be a niche for this activity as long as there are purchasers to provide the 'liquidity event'.

energyecon wrote on Thu, 5/16/2013 - 2:11 pm

Alcoa cuts 500 jobs, 2 production lines in Canada - Yahoo! Finance

energyecon wrote on Thu, 5/16/2013 - 1:49 pm (in reply to...)
I wasn't going to say anything but the beat down lasted all of 30 minutes after the report.

We could see a 2 print (less than $3/bcf) if this persists.

Well, -3% seems like some decent damage to stick - how deep was the valley in that 30 minutes?

edit: and the $2 handle would make many producers sweaty... well the natural gas producers that is.

energyecon wrote on Thu, 5/16/2013 - 1:27 pm

And the natty storage was out today, 99 BCF injection - may be a factor in the 3% beatdown today...

Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

energyecon wrote on Thu, 5/16/2013 - 1:16 pm (in reply to...)
F.D. I've dived the old city of Orange. Freaky.

The world was not created in deluge!

energyecon wrote on Thu, 5/16/2013 - 1:12 pm

A dash of schadenfreude for your afternoon enjoyment (well, depending on your time zone):

Wall Street Gets A Taste Of Its Own Medicine In Bloomberg Terminal Scandal - Forbes

energyecon wrote on Thu, 5/16/2013 - 1:01 pm

Yeah, well I suspect that any other freedom crusaders wandering snapping photos of law enforcement buildings at 3:00 am who start talking like a jailhouse lawyer at first contact and have outstanding warrants from other jurisdictions are going to get rousted.
Facepalm

energyecon wrote on Thu, 5/16/2013 - 12:56 pm (in reply to...)
Raymond Michael Rodden was bored this week, so he drove to downtown Phoenix and began walking around, snapping photos of the federal courthouse and the state capitol with his iPhone.

The 33-year-old man ended up jailed, unemployed and homeless; his iPhone, iPad and Macintosh laptop confiscated as “evidence.”

All because they found it odd he was taking photos at 3 a.m.

energyecon wrote on Thu, 5/16/2013 - 11:02 am

Egypt 'suffering worst economic crisis since 1930s' | World news | guardian.co.uk

energyecon wrote on Thu, 5/16/2013 - 10:02 am

Teh natty must not have put on teh lotionz 'cuz it is getting teh hoze...

energyecon wrote on Thu, 5/16/2013 - 9:55 am (in reply to...)

New Keyboard

energyecon wrote on Thu, 5/16/2013 - 9:43 am (in reply to...)
Show me your badge first!!

YouTube - Blazing Saddles - We dont need no stinking badges..

energyecon wrote on Thu, 5/16/2013 - 8:53 am

Tanta vive!

energyecon wrote on Thu, 5/16/2013 - 8:48 am (in reply to...)
but please remember that last recession started december 2007 and you were ADAMANT we weren't in one throughout the summer of 2008

Its different this time

energyecon wrote on Thu, 5/16/2013 - 7:42 am (in reply to...)
Faith in the democratic process is proportional to the number of Congressmen you own.

Why own when you can rent? Ba-da-boom-TISH (ht FF)

energyecon wrote on Thu, 5/16/2013 - 7:41 am (in reply to...)

And what is CPI over that period? Armwave about 1.7% or so, which leaves a real decline approximating -1.4% no?

energyecon wrote on Thu, 5/16/2013 - 7:33 am

paging dryfly:

Farm Belt's Boom Shows Signs of Slowing - WSJ.com

Analysts cautioned against making too much of a single quarter. And even with those slower rates, values for nonirrigated farmland in the Kansas City district, which stretches from western Missouri to Wyoming, have soared a total of 19.3% over the past year to record levels, the bank said. More information will come on Thursday in a report expected from the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, whose region includes several of the biggest corn-growing states in the upper Midwest.

What time does that come out?

energyecon wrote on Thu, 5/16/2013 - 7:28 am (in reply to...)
Countdown to the Haj ... 5 months.

yep, been watching the nCoV - confirmed cases outside of KSA, and confirmed H2H though not sustained community transmission -

WHO | Novel coronavirus infection - update 

15 May 2013 - The Ministry of Health in Saudi Arabia has informed WHO of an additional two laboratory-confirmed cases with infection of the novel coronavirus (nCoV).

The two patients are health care workers who were exposed to patients with confirmed nCoV.

[snip]

From September 2012 to date, WHO has been informed of a global total of 40 laboratory confirmed cases of human infection with nCoV, including 20 deaths from 6 countries (France, Germany, Jordan, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Kingdom).

WHO | Coronavirus infections

energyecon wrote on Thu, 5/16/2013 - 7:19 am (in reply to...)

yep

energyecon wrote on Thu, 5/16/2013 - 7:00 am (in reply to...)

No, no that's Tourette's

energyecon wrote on Thu, 5/16/2013 - 6:22 am (in reply to...)

Some here think so, though others see it more as a Albigensian heresy...

energyecon wrote on Thu, 5/16/2013 - 6:12 am (in reply to...)
There's a whiff of deflation in the air... quick, someone fetch the Fed breeze!!

There is just an awesome spoof commercial in there somewhere, with a benevolent smiling bearded one providing a few inflationary puffs of Fedbreeze to whatever needs ahem inflating...

energyecon wrote on Wed, 5/15/2013 - 1:00 pm (in reply to...)
On a permanently high plateau.

Its different this time

energyecon wrote on Wed, 5/15/2013 - 12:26 pm (in reply to...)
and was amazed to discover how much he and Republicans have in common

Just. Write. Themselves.

energyecon wrote on Wed, 5/15/2013 - 12:23 pm (in reply to...)
The Bernanke Agenda - It Isn't What You Think It Is - Joseph Stuber - Seeking Alpha

Pure In glod we trust

My thesis here is that everything that has taken place since then has been orchestrated to accomplish that end - at least that is what I think - and if that is in fact the case then everything that seems to make no sense suddenly does make sense. Bear with me as I develop my thesis as the subject matter is a little complicated and highly interconnected.

.

energyecon wrote on Wed, 5/15/2013 - 11:45 am (in reply to...)

New Keyboard Don't be mean!

energyecon wrote on Wed, 5/15/2013 - 11:42 am

91-Year-Old Man Raises Money to Prevent Eviction by Daughter - Yahoo!

energyecon wrote on Wed, 5/15/2013 - 11:22 am (in reply to...)
Would you make the trains run on time, too?

He would, and with extra bike racks to boot!

energyecon wrote on Wed, 5/15/2013 - 10:26 am (in reply to...)
we are in the goldilocks zone, where debt and the ability to pay off the debt are finally decoupled, win-win.

Dick Cheney was right!

energyecon wrote on Wed, 5/15/2013 - 10:23 am (in reply to...)
Workers with median incomes ($773/week, $38,650/year) aren't typically home buyers, so I'm not sure of the relevance.

Sebastian

What a fatuous argument to make. On an economics blog. Or are we back to the poors don't matter position, except we've moved up the food chain to include the bottom 50%?

Declining real median wages. Think about it.

energyecon wrote on Wed, 5/15/2013 - 10:19 am (in reply to...)
Untrue... those reliant upon the graces of government for their lifestyle, standard of living, or livelihood will vote exactly as their paymasters require if and when the cessation or reduction of those benefits is proposed.

Phbbbbt! In countries that do not mandate the vote, there are marked and persistent differences by education and income across multiple countries - the poors vote less.

energyecon wrote on Wed, 5/15/2013 - 6:50 am (in reply to...)
Just wait until the stock market money starts sloshing down main street.

Smile --> Tongue --> Shock --> Puzzled --> Crying --> Sick --> Ghost

gonna be a long wait...

energyecon wrote on Wed, 5/15/2013 - 6:23 am (in reply to...)
I didn't see an "up" part in there for the last couple of years.

Up until as in latest entry, not directional...

energyecon wrote on Wed, 5/15/2013 - 6:03 am

I wonder if the 'mixed' labor measures we see here are going to continue, and reflect responses to ACA rather than the underlying economic fundamentals (gotta be mental to think they matter)... more employees working to just under the threshold hours.

energyecon wrote on Tue, 5/14/2013 - 2:08 pm

Too good not to share - great 'Muricans!

Kitchen Nightmare Comes True for Arizona Restaurant Owners | Work + Money - Yahoo! Shine

(seriously, you must read the whole thing)

energyecon wrote on Tue, 5/14/2013 - 1:09 pm

Getting closer to Skynet...

Navy launches unmanned aircraft from carrier for first time | Fox News

The X-47B can reach an altitude of more than 40,000 feet, has a range of more than 2,100 nautical miles and can reach high subsonic speeds, according to the Navy. It is also fully autonomous in flight. It relies on computer programs to tell it where it to go unless a mission operator needs to step in. That differs from other drones used by the military, which are more often piloted from remote locations.

Not yet an operational model, still working out the mechanics of carrier operations.