"I expect falling prices, falling transactions, falling starts, falling housing related employment, falling home equity extraction - lots of falling - but not everything will be falling: foreclosures will be rising.
I wonder how this writer will characterize the surprises of 2007?"
Well, I guess if 2007 sees falling prices, falling transactions, falling starts, falling housing-related employment, falling MEW, and rising foreclosures, it won't and can't be a surprise, because you've just predicted it! I think your prediction is spot on, and the only surprise will come from the Fed - will Ben start up his helicopter or not?
Real estate was sure 'sticky' on the way down here in Connecticut in the late 80s/90s bust.
Prices peaked in mid 1988- by 1989 inventory started to grow- sellers where frantic for buyers. The local economists said the same thing many national analysts are saying now- it will recover 'next year' it was a minor correction.
There was no huge 'pop' here- except prices fell every year from 1989-1996- 7 years.prices fell about 5% each year.
It was not until 2002, that prices reached the same as they where in 1988.
Local economists are now 'worried' about the 'inventory buildup', slowdown in sales- and prices have actually fallen for the first time in a decade.
It seems very premature to think this is over. There are many cheerleaders who seem to be in denial or refuse to believe a bubble of this magnitude can have serious aftershocks.
Don't forget the monkeys in the trees. . . they're the most important part of this story.
Creative financing got the market up to where it is today; if they devise further innovative ways to keep home owners servicing this debt load, the monkeys in the trees might stay. If not, look out below.
Also as a side note- here in Connecticut, there was no 'creative financing' in the late 80s and 90s'. Most mortgages required a down payment of at least 5-20% and good credit. Back then interest only funky tickler rates where unheard of.
Today the slowdown here is again largely based on prices being too high, Inventory overhang and a raise in rates. 'Funky' financing here is perhaps 7% of all mortgages.
This article reads like a NAR press release ... recycled platitudes like "those who stay in their house can weather most markets" and other warmed-over cliches. But at least with NAR you know they are PR folks and have an agenda to promote real estate. I wonder if the author of this piece was wearing pom-poms when she wrote it, it sure reads like cheerleading to me.
She could have at least interviewed someone who isn't from NAR or a blatant housing bull.
I've read most of what Ms. Hoak has written about real estate over the past year. I've posted a large number of those stories on my own blog. I've never found Ms. Hoak to be tremendously biased. You can read most everything she has written by searching for her name on MarketWatch. I'm sure you'll find most of her pieces as even handed. But, I must admit, this piece did strike me as a bit off, more marketing than substance and a bit more bias than I had expected.
Just to give a personal sliver of whats seems to be going on in the realestate industry. I am here in Sarasota Florida but I purchased a 2br2bath 1300sq ft condo in st. louis mo for 145.000 and did the financing through my local person here in Florida at Bank of America. Well in chatting with him i asked him how was business. He took on a grim look and said not very good. I am hoping it picks up next year.
That was the first time i actually saw someone with some fear in somones voice in regard to the oncoming train wreck
oh and by the way he is on commission
The surprise story of 2007-"How could bankruptcies and foreclosures be up so much when the economy is so great?" The curtains around the economy will shred just as the curtains around Iraq have been shredded. It makes you wonder why GWB said to go out and shop-what is he seeing in the numbers that we haven't seen?
The excerpts from the Bill Fleckenstein article below also point to a downturn in 2007 led by the , which consumer. He cites data on sales tax receipts, that I was not aware of reflects consumption trends. This dovetails with fewer MEW's and a slowing housing market.
"Follow the money (from sales tax receipts)
Now, however, it's quite clear that the consumer is being affected -- whether one looks at the sales data from Wal-Mart and other retailers, or at the Liscio Report's data on state sales-tax receipts. To quote from Liscio's latest survey: "The weakening consumption trend is now established, and the majority of our tax contacts expressed real concern about a slowing in sales-tax collections. It now appears clear that consumers are not spending the billions of dollars they have saved on gas in recent months."
Furthermore, when I e-mailed Liscio to share my view that we are entering a recession, here's the response I received: "We note with a shudder that our indexes look a lot the way they did in fall of 2000, especially the weakening and then big drop in the sales tax survey. The SDI led us into the last recession, and the states that led are very weak right now, as well." (The SDI is Liscio's proprietary sales-diffusion index.)"
... "What has, of course, been impossible to determine in advance is the exact timing of when the stock market, the real estate market and the economy get in sync to the downside -- i.e., "the next time down," to quote my euphemistic, forever-and-a-day-in-the-making outcome. I expect it to occur in 2007 -- because everything seems lined up, as never before, for that scenario to play out."
You're pretty cocky now Mr. Calculated Risk, but when the real estate market takes off like a firecracker in 2007, you'll be wishing you were in it.
I don't understand why would you say that. Mr. CR has been very very spot on with his analysis to date. What makes you think his careful analysis has dramatically lost its edge now?
Also, I was wondering why the "official" market analysts couldn't perform as well with the same data. As the answer dawned to me I got almost sick: they are lying deliberately because their positions depend on them lying. I guess being retired like Mr. CR gives you something precious: you can afford to tell the truth.
I would like to know why a market that has historically exhibited multi-year cycles is now suddenly going to make an unprecedented shift to multi-month cycles.
I have been following the dc area market and in the last month things have picked up big time. The builders are rising prices for some of the new construction. The market might go bad somewhere else but here it looks like it might take off. Just my two cents. This will be region by region basis .
The homebuilders keep claiming that the downturn will end in a few months. If that's the case, why aren't they pulling permits? A permit pulled now would result in a completion right around the time that the turnaround is supposed to be in place!
CR, with all due respect you picked the wrong Gary Watts quote:
"Ventura County may not see the record amounts of home appreciation it has in the past few years, but a real estate forecaster predicted Wednesday night that homeowners would still see about 17 percent in appreciation for 2006.
2006 is already in the bag, ladies and gentlemen, Gary Watts told a group of more than 100 people who had turned out for the 17th annual Economic Forum at the Thousand Oaks Civic Arts Plaza.
According to the data below, the median listing price in the DC MKT is at a 52 week low. Although the number of listing is falling which could indicate a possible rebound in pricing.
Note: I can't fit all of the info in but have tried to include as much as possible.
My forecast for 2007: The pundits will keep calling for a bottom all year long. Toward the end of the year, they will forecast an improvement for the following year.
The dollar is dying. We wanted a stronger yuan and so the dollar is dying. Why would the Chinese put their yuan into our dying dollar market anyway?
Since AMERICANS no longer save, there is no kitty of cash to lavish on housing. I predicted this long ago at this blog as well as my own, comprehensive blog (click on homepage to see).
America is rapidly going bankrupt. On the individual level as well as collectively. Our government, instead of instituting measures like much higher interest rates to attract savings, is trying to get us to go shopping like mad this Xmas!
This is exactly what we CANNOT do! If we want to avoid bankruptcy. Taxes on the rich must double or quadruple. Our FOREX accumulations can't stay at less than $250 billion while China and Japan have over a trillion EACH!
And no housing market ever recovers in less than five years when they go down. All declines in loans must be balanced by someone saving somewhere and the Japanese won't be saving anymore, they are retiring and ditto the baby boomers. Who will all be wanting to sell their homes and move to vacationlands across the planet.
I'm not sure who expected housing to "pop" in 2006. The author doesn't quote anyone.
In the narrative (for instance, the Goldilocks narrative) it is imperative that we get out the eraser on any of those quotations like "according to Mark Trail (or Quaker Oats, or The Bear Season Hunting Schedule)". The story needs to flow (snap, crackle and ...) and not stumble on reality and invite criticism and free-for-alls over whose turn it is to narrate (which is why we come here people, everybody gets a turn...)
I need to confess a preference for Troy's 'Monkeys in the Trees' over the President's message to get out there and do "more shopping".
Huge preference.
Robert, izat true or just what the SEC practicing due diligence needs to do:
In my book missing an earnings projection with a loss and by 25% gets the SEC involved if you are a public company
Although the number of listing is falling which could indicate a possible rebound in pricing.
Actually, listings in the DC area typically fall on the order of 50% during the winter since homes just don't sell during that period and a listing is kind of pointless.
It looks like on a seasonally adjusted basis inventory could actually be rising.
Maybe if I have some free time and can get enough data I'll try to come up with a seasonally adjust inventory for DC and NoVA.
Calmo,
I was just pointing out that Gary Watt's comments about "in the bag" for both VenCo and OC would be talking up a stock if those markets were stocks.
As to the T-Shirt suggestion the "guys" at patrick.net had a Santa Barbara BBQ this summer and HARM passed out some doozies. Mine reads; I wanted a t-shirt but could only afford a house. patrick.net
I believe arbogast was being sarcastic a la Colbert, but I may be wrong.
Oh, ok sorry about that. I'm from the other side of the pond, so I don't follow the American talk shows. But I just went to check Wikipedia and can now see the "Colbert aspect".
It aint bs I am the source I have been looking at buying a place in the dc area and know what is selling and what isnt. What I was refering is the new community in the boonies called ashburn where there literally was no pricing power three builders have increased the prices by 10 to 15k in the last three weeks. If you want validation call up amberleigh estates in ashburn and belmont country club in ashburn.
All I am saying is what I have seen in the last three months so far.
James Bednar, In general, I think MarketWatch does an excellent job. Rex Nutting and some others are always worth reading, and in fairness, this author did mention some risks - but well down in the story.
I just wanted to highlight the apparent strawman at the beginning "unlike some people had expected". In fact most people were surprised by the severity of the downturn.
Believe me, I work for a developer, its the oldest trick in the book. If people think they are making money they will continue buying. If the developer lowers prices he risks losing all his pre-sales and gives all those tire kickers ample cause to keep kicking tires. Having said that, the projects you mentioned could defy the market but the overwhelming evidence suggests that prices are collapsing.
Calculated Risk:
Why should anyone be surprised? The growth of the housing market was unprecedented; accordingly, the severity of the decline has the ability to be unprecedented.
What you said was, "I have been following the dc area market and in the last month things have picked up big time. The builders are rising prices for some of the new construction."
And your evidence that the market has picked up is that prices at one development way out in the outer burbs seem, to you, to have gone up in the last three weeks.
So saying that the market in DC market had turned was really just bullshit.
Max - you might want to start looking at some of the other 9,000 or so properties emailer2 linked to. My guess is 'one or two' of them aren't up 10-15%. LOL.
And any way, if that IS the market... and you want to buy... then buy. I'm SURE you won't have a problem getting their attention if you agree to the increases... and I doubt you'll face much of a bidding war.
It feels like you dont have much to disucss things out... its quite possible u sat thru the upside and didnt have a property and now ur bitter so all u gotta say is sky is falling on our heads...
Maybe I will purchase it maybe I wont but atleast I have open mind to jump on either side of the wagon and not sit thru things...
ever thought why they say house prices are sticky or the market illiquid... today most of the places in the dc area might be worth 15% less but not unless people sell it at that price....if not it is whatever the last price of the property was sold at.... so most used homes people are going to hang on to.... so the crash u folks r talking abt aint gonna happen....
dryfly
I am a pretty decent poker player... I didnt buy the property since I didnt feel it was a good deal.... forget the 20k...
Hope you can type better than that too - hard to see how someone with your communication "skillz" would be able to get a job that pays enough to swing a $600,000 house.
While I don't consider myself rich, I would be one of those who would get my taxes tripled or quadrupled. (You might be too) Raising taxes will NOT solve the problem. I won't be spending $$$ in your trinket shop, buying a new car, going to a fancy spa while on vacation, or redoing the kitchen/bathroom. Now where do you suppose the shopkeeper, the car dealer, the masseuse, or the cabinet guy would get their income?
Oh, that's right, my taxes would be paying their relatively fractional unemployment income. We'd all be happy then, right?
Increasing taxes on 'the rich' won't fix things. Reducing gov't spending along with sound fiscal policies is what 'fixes' things.
It feels like you dont have much to disucss things out... its quite possible u sat thru the upside and didnt have a property and now ur bitter so all u gotta say is sky is falling on our heads...
Max - I got property. Bought it cheap when the prices were right. But if I had to buy now I'd rent & wait. I got time. I got money. This thing is going in reverse.
Does that mean the sky falling? It is if you buy now at these inflated prices... it'll fall right on your head. But maybe you like that.
BTW my siblings & I have another property we will be selling soon so we see both sides of the coin... property was recently appraised at more than $600K. Realtors are telling us to not expect anything close the appraised price if we want it to sell... however you never know as I've heard rumors there are suckers out there.
And in 2007 the housing slowdown will go on world tour....
"I expect falling prices, falling transactions, falling starts, falling housing related employment, falling home equity extraction - lots of falling - but not everything will be falling: foreclosures will be rising.
I wonder how this writer will characterize the surprises of 2007?"
Well, I guess if 2007 sees falling prices, falling transactions, falling starts, falling housing-related employment, falling MEW, and rising foreclosures, it won't and can't be a surprise, because you've just predicted it! I think your prediction is spot on, and the only surprise will come from the Fed - will Ben start up his helicopter or not?
Real estate was sure 'sticky' on the way down here in Connecticut in the late 80s/90s bust.
Prices peaked in mid 1988- by 1989 inventory started to grow- sellers where frantic for buyers. The local economists said the same thing many national analysts are saying now- it will recover 'next year' it was a minor correction.
There was no huge 'pop' here- except prices fell every year from 1989-1996- 7 years.prices fell about 5% each year.
It was not until 2002, that prices reached the same as they where in 1988.
Local economists are now 'worried' about the 'inventory buildup', slowdown in sales- and prices have actually fallen for the first time in a decade.
It seems very premature to think this is over. There are many cheerleaders who seem to be in denial or refuse to believe a bubble of this magnitude can have serious aftershocks.
Don't forget the monkeys in the trees. . . they're the most important part of this story.
Creative financing got the market up to where it is today; if they devise further innovative ways to keep home owners servicing this debt load, the monkeys in the trees might stay. If not, look out below.
Also as a side note- here in Connecticut, there was no 'creative financing' in the late 80s and 90s'. Most mortgages required a down payment of at least 5-20% and good credit. Back then interest only funky tickler rates where unheard of.
Today the slowdown here is again largely based on prices being too high, Inventory overhang and a raise in rates. 'Funky' financing here is perhaps 7% of all mortgages.
This article reads like a NAR press release ... recycled platitudes like "those who stay in their house can weather most markets" and other warmed-over cliches. But at least with NAR you know they are PR folks and have an agenda to promote real estate. I wonder if the author of this piece was wearing pom-poms when she wrote it, it sure reads like cheerleading to me.
She could have at least interviewed someone who isn't from NAR or a blatant housing bull.
You're pretty cocky now Mr. Calculated Risk, but when the real estate market takes off like a firecracker in 2007, you'll be wishing you were in it.
Well, I say Ha Ha to you!
Doomsayer.
--Stephen Colbert
I've read most of what Ms. Hoak has written about real estate over the past year. I've posted a large number of those stories on my own blog. I've never found Ms. Hoak to be tremendously biased. You can read most everything she has written by searching for her name on MarketWatch. I'm sure you'll find most of her pieces as even handed. But, I must admit, this piece did strike me as a bit off, more marketing than substance and a bit more bias than I had expected.
jb
... And it will not be falling like a rock from the cliff. Real estate will be falling like a paper plane thrown from empire state building.
stecc: Maybe somebody should make a "housing bubble world tour" t-shirt.
I no longer read Marketwatch
it is virtually a clone of CNBC -
Marketwatch is another bubblevision- with spin spin and more spin- biased bullish to the point of silliness.
If I bought their BS- I would be broke by now.
Just to give a personal sliver of whats seems to be going on in the realestate industry. I am here in Sarasota Florida but I purchased a 2br2bath 1300sq ft condo in st. louis mo for 145.000 and did the financing through my local person here in Florida at Bank of America. Well in chatting with him i asked him how was business. He took on a grim look and said not very good. I am hoping it picks up next year.
That was the first time i actually saw someone with some fear in somones voice in regard to the oncoming train wreck
oh and by the way he is on commission
The surprise story of 2007-"How could bankruptcies and foreclosures be up so much when the economy is so great?" The curtains around the economy will shred just as the curtains around Iraq have been shredded. It makes you wonder why GWB said to go out and shop-what is he seeing in the numbers that we haven't seen?
Approximately a million in surplus housing units nationwide and the shills are talking about stabilization?
Crock of $#@!!
The excerpts from the Bill Fleckenstein article below also point to a downturn in 2007 led by the , which consumer. He cites data on sales tax receipts, that I was not aware of reflects consumption trends. This dovetails with fewer MEW's and a slowing housing market.
No more bubbles to bail out the housing bubble - MSN Money
By Bill Fleckenstein
"Follow the money (from sales tax receipts)
Now, however, it's quite clear that the consumer is being affected -- whether one looks at the sales data from Wal-Mart and other retailers, or at the Liscio Report's data on state sales-tax receipts. To quote from Liscio's latest survey: "The weakening consumption trend is now established, and the majority of our tax contacts expressed real concern about a slowing in sales-tax collections. It now appears clear that consumers are not spending the billions of dollars they have saved on gas in recent months."
Furthermore, when I e-mailed Liscio to share my view that we are entering a recession, here's the response I received: "We note with a shudder that our indexes look a lot the way they did in fall of 2000, especially the weakening and then big drop in the sales tax survey. The SDI led us into the last recession, and the states that led are very weak right now, as well." (The SDI is Liscio's proprietary sales-diffusion index.)"
... "What has, of course, been impossible to determine in advance is the exact timing of when the stock market, the real estate market and the economy get in sync to the downside -- i.e., "the next time down," to quote my euphemistic, forever-and-a-day-in-the-making outcome. I expect it to occur in 2007 -- because everything seems lined up, as never before, for that scenario to play out."
You're pretty cocky now Mr. Calculated Risk, but when the real estate market takes off like a firecracker in 2007, you'll be wishing you were in it.
I don't understand why would you say that. Mr. CR has been very very spot on with his analysis to date. What makes you think his careful analysis has dramatically lost its edge now?
Also, I was wondering why the "official" market analysts couldn't perform as well with the same data. As the answer dawned to me I got almost sick: they are lying deliberately because their positions depend on them lying. I guess being retired like Mr. CR gives you something precious: you can afford to tell the truth.
I would like to know why a market that has historically exhibited multi-year cycles is now suddenly going to make an unprecedented shift to multi-month cycles.
Explanation please.
Folks
I have been following the dc area market and in the last month things have picked up big time. The builders are rising prices for some of the new construction. The market might go bad somewhere else but here it looks like it might take off. Just my two cents. This will be region by region basis .
Max
The homebuilders keep claiming that the downturn will end in a few months. If that's the case, why aren't they pulling permits? A permit pulled now would result in a completion right around the time that the turnaround is supposed to be in place!
CR, with all due respect you picked the wrong Gary Watts quote:
"Ventura County may not see the record amounts of home appreciation it has in the past few years, but a real estate forecaster predicted Wednesday night that homeowners would still see about 17 percent in appreciation for 2006.
2006 is already in the bag, ladies and gentlemen, Gary Watts told a group of more than 100 people who had turned out for the 17th annual Economic Forum at the Thousand Oaks Civic Arts Plaza.
Ventura County Star: Local Ventura, California News Delivered Throughout the Day.
Results through Nov 06: -8.2%
Likely annual decline: -9.5%
In my book missing an earnings projection with a loss and by 25% gets the SEC involved if you are a public company.
Max,
In a word, bullshit.
What's your source?
aapo-
I believe arbogast was being sarcastic a la Colbert, but I may be wrong.
A wildcard for 2007: derivative meltdown.
Global systemic crisis in 2007 - Financial sector: « Another bubble » close to bursting
Stats on the DC MKT.
According to the data below, the median listing price in the DC MKT is at a 52 week low. Although the number of listing is falling which could indicate a possible rebound in pricing.
Note: I can't fit all of the info in but have tried to include as much as possible.
HousingWatch is Coming Soon!
Price: Inventory
Last: (12/20/2006) $439,900 9,097
Prev: (12/18/2006) $439,900 9,157
52wk Range: 439,900 - 489,500 52 week inventory 5,684 - 12,574
\t\t
1 month -10,100 (-2.2%) -1700 \t
3 months -20,100 (-4.4%) -2,661
6 months -40,000 (-8.3%) -3,241
12 months -15,100 (-3.3%) +2,304
\t
median price
\t
inventory numbers are for all properties in region.
My forecast for 2007: The pundits will keep calling for a bottom all year long. Toward the end of the year, they will forecast an improvement for the following year.
2008: ditto
2009: ditto
The dollar is dying. We wanted a stronger yuan and so the dollar is dying. Why would the Chinese put their yuan into our dying dollar market anyway?
Since AMERICANS no longer save, there is no kitty of cash to lavish on housing. I predicted this long ago at this blog as well as my own, comprehensive blog (click on homepage to see).
America is rapidly going bankrupt. On the individual level as well as collectively. Our government, instead of instituting measures like much higher interest rates to attract savings, is trying to get us to go shopping like mad this Xmas!
This is exactly what we CANNOT do! If we want to avoid bankruptcy. Taxes on the rich must double or quadruple. Our FOREX accumulations can't stay at less than $250 billion while China and Japan have over a trillion EACH!
And no housing market ever recovers in less than five years when they go down. All declines in loans must be balanced by someone saving somewhere and the Japanese won't be saving anymore, they are retiring and ditto the baby boomers. Who will all be wanting to sell their homes and move to vacationlands across the planet.
I'm not sure who expected housing to "pop" in 2006. The author doesn't quote anyone.
In the narrative (for instance, the Goldilocks narrative) it is imperative that we get out the eraser on any of those quotations like "according to Mark Trail (or Quaker Oats, or The Bear Season Hunting Schedule)". The story needs to flow (snap, crackle and ...) and not stumble on reality and invite criticism and free-for-alls over whose turn it is to narrate (which is why we come here people, everybody gets a turn...)
I need to confess a preference for Troy's 'Monkeys in the Trees' over the President's message to get out there and do "more shopping".
Huge preference.
Robert, izat true or just what the SEC practicing due diligence needs to do:
ac,
That's one of the best and unasked questions of this debate.
Bob in MA,
Maybe there's increased demand for housing in DC due to the Fannie Mae audit? - kidding-
Although the number of listing is falling which could indicate a possible rebound in pricing.
Actually, listings in the DC area typically fall on the order of 50% during the winter since homes just don't sell during that period and a listing is kind of pointless.
It looks like on a seasonally adjusted basis inventory could actually be rising.
Maybe if I have some free time and can get enough data I'll try to come up with a seasonally adjust inventory for DC and NoVA.
Fairfax County Virginia MLS Housing Inventory
Calmo,
I was just pointing out that Gary Watt's comments about "in the bag" for both VenCo and OC would be talking up a stock if those markets were stocks.
As to the T-Shirt suggestion the "guys" at patrick.net had a Santa Barbara BBQ this summer and HARM passed out some doozies. Mine reads; I wanted a t-shirt but could only afford a house. patrick.net
I believe arbogast was being sarcastic a la Colbert, but I may be wrong.
Oh, ok sorry about that. I'm from the other side of the pond, so I don't follow the American talk shows. But I just went to check Wikipedia and can now see the "Colbert aspect".
To Bob_in_MA
It aint bs I am the source I have been looking at buying a place in the dc area and know what is selling and what isnt. What I was refering is the new community in the boonies called ashburn where there literally was no pricing power three builders have increased the prices by 10 to 15k in the last three weeks. If you want validation call up amberleigh estates in ashburn and belmont country club in ashburn.
All I am saying is what I have seen in the last three months so far.
Max
James Bednar, In general, I think MarketWatch does an excellent job. Rex Nutting and some others are always worth reading, and in fairness, this author did mention some risks - but well down in the story.
I just wanted to highlight the apparent strawman at the beginning "unlike some people had expected". In fact most people were surprised by the severity of the downturn.
Best Wishes.
Max:
Believe me, I work for a developer, its the oldest trick in the book. If people think they are making money they will continue buying. If the developer lowers prices he risks losing all his pre-sales and gives all those tire kickers ample cause to keep kicking tires. Having said that, the projects you mentioned could defy the market but the overwhelming evidence suggests that prices are collapsing.
Calculated Risk:
Why should anyone be surprised? The growth of the housing market was unprecedented; accordingly, the severity of the decline has the ability to be unprecedented.
What you said was, "I have been following the dc area market and in the last month things have picked up big time. The builders are rising prices for some of the new construction."
And your evidence that the market has picked up is that prices at one development way out in the outer burbs seem, to you, to have gone up in the last three weeks.
So saying that the market in DC market had turned was really just bullshit.
Max - you might want to start looking at some of the other 9,000 or so properties emailer2 linked to. My guess is 'one or two' of them aren't up 10-15%. LOL.
And any way, if that IS the market... and you want to buy... then buy. I'm SURE you won't have a problem getting their attention if you agree to the increases... and I doubt you'll face much of a bidding war.
Bob
My take is if they can raise the prices in the burbs the metro area will/must do just fine.... since they have more pricing power than the boonies...
The developer knew I was willing to sign on the contract and didnt lower the price by 20k forget other incentives...
So you tell me if I am willing to buy a 600k property and the developer doesnt go down by 20k... how bad can the market be?
Max,
My take is, if there enough people like you around the builder will/must do just fine....
Those with any sense will be waiting for prices to stop dropping, but I don't doubt there are plenty of buyers like you who will jump at faux deals.
Go get 'em tiger!
So you tell me if I am willing to buy a 600k property and the developer doesnt go down by 20k... how bad can the market be?
Play poker much Max? If so, where?
Bob
It feels like you dont have much to disucss things out... its quite possible u sat thru the upside and didnt have a property and now ur bitter so all u gotta say is sky is falling on our heads...
Maybe I will purchase it maybe I wont but atleast I have open mind to jump on either side of the wagon and not sit thru things...
ever thought why they say house prices are sticky or the market illiquid... today most of the places in the dc area might be worth 15% less but not unless people sell it at that price....if not it is whatever the last price of the property was sold at.... so most used homes people are going to hang on to.... so the crash u folks r talking abt aint gonna happen....
dryfly
I am a pretty decent poker player... I didnt buy the property since I didnt feel it was a good deal.... forget the 20k...
Hope you can type better than that too - hard to see how someone with your communication "skillz" would be able to get a job that pays enough to swing a $600,000 house.
Elaine,
While I don't consider myself rich, I would be one of those who would get my taxes tripled or quadrupled. (You might be too) Raising taxes will NOT solve the problem. I won't be spending $$$ in your trinket shop, buying a new car, going to a fancy spa while on vacation, or redoing the kitchen/bathroom. Now where do you suppose the shopkeeper, the car dealer, the masseuse, or the cabinet guy would get their income?
Oh, that's right, my taxes would be paying their relatively fractional unemployment income. We'd all be happy then, right?
Increasing taxes on 'the rich' won't fix things. Reducing gov't spending along with sound fiscal policies is what 'fixes' things.
"What cha gonna do when the music stops?"
folks, u got to understand this writer works as a pimp for wall street.
It feels like you dont have much to disucss things out... its quite possible u sat thru the upside and didnt have a property and now ur bitter so all u gotta say is sky is falling on our heads...
Max - I got property. Bought it cheap when the prices were right. But if I had to buy now I'd rent & wait. I got time. I got money. This thing is going in reverse.
Does that mean the sky falling? It is if you buy now at these inflated prices... it'll fall right on your head. But maybe you like that.
BTW my siblings & I have another property we will be selling soon so we see both sides of the coin... property was recently appraised at more than $600K. Realtors are telling us to not expect anything close the appraised price if we want it to sell... however you never know as I've heard rumors there are suckers out there.