No recovery until US government stops borrowing so that investors must invest in businesses and grow the private sector vs. the safety of US gov. debt
I would rather have the US print every dime that they need and introduced a $5-$10T in new dollars over a few years vs. sucking the capital out of the global economy.
In 2001 Greenspan talked of surpluses for the foreseeable future. Greenspan offered projections of "an on-budget surplus of almost $500 billion ... in fiscal year 2010". How did that work out?
He argued the National Debt would soon be retired and the Boomer's retirements secure and provided a projection of "an implicit on-budget surplus under baseline assumptions well past 2030 despite the budgetary pressures from the aging of the baby-boom generation, especially on the major health programs."
Geesh ... I knew it was nonsense when I heard it!
best to all
Juvenal Delinquent, I understand. That is why I noted where he was. It seemed natural for Lipsky to criticize China in this speech - it is tough to rebalance the world with China's currency manipulation - but probably not while speaking in China!
Mr. Lipsky also discussed the need for rebalancing the world economy, although he didn't criticize China's currency manipulation (he was speaking in China).
Uhh, "Lipsky"--- is that a Chinese name? A citizen of the world, maybe?
Maybe you can't criticize China's currency manipulation without implicitly criticizing the US's currency manipulation.
From the link, Greenspan says: But continuing to run surpluses beyond the point at which we reach zero or near-zero federal debt brings to center stage the critical longer-term fiscal policy issue of whether the federal government should accumulate large quantities of private (more technically, nonfederal) assets.
Well, I'm sure glad we dodged having to worry about that problem.
The funny thing: Even once it was obvious that the bubble burst, he really took a long time to understand that he was in a new world. (Maybe I'm being harsh: I was in silicon valley at the time of this speech, and it sure felt like the world was ending.)
China: "We're going to use the dollar to determine what our currency is worth."
US: "You can't use the dollar, you manipulators, that's our corner. Everyone knows the dollar is worth shit."
The public has been educated that saving is bad policy. Wonder where they got that idea? On the other hand saving takes discipline and simple money math another skill not taught.
Maybe you can't criticize China's currency manipulation without implicitly criticizing the US's currency manipulation.
And why was it different for Japan? Did we feel sorry for them? Because, hell, Rubin coordinated with them to intervene in the currency markets.
An important component of government strategy to heal the knabs' balance sheets was to let them feast on the yield curve. Nobody's yelling about the evil shorts in that game.
In 2001 Greenspan talked of surpluses for the foreseeable future. Greenspan offered projections of "an on-budget surplus of almost $500 billion ... in fiscal year 2010". How did that work out?
Tax revenues continued to increase but expenditures went exponential. Not just the two unfunded wars but more importantly the entitlements. The US does not have a revenue problem, it has a spending problem. Maybe $1T of the deficits since 2001 can be attributed to our foreign adventurism, For the other $4T you have to look to things like Medicare D.
Having China revalue their currency upwards is good for us as we are the world's reserve currency, but being forced to devalue the dollar downward would be be a disaster, along the lines of the rock-solid British Pound being devalued, as they began their reign as an also-ran.
If the IMF’s staff could speak freely about the U.S., it would tell us what it tells all countries in this situation: recovery will fail unless we break the financial oligarchy that is blocking essential reform.
What's been done ? .......nothing, nada, Obama & Congress MIA, and 19 too greedy to fail banks
Well, the choices are 1. spend less or 2. earn more, which simplifies the problem considerably.
You're welcome.
Well, JP, with a recession, I wouldn't bet on choice 2; so that leaves choice 1. What are the implications? Doesn't that necessarily mean deflation?
It also sends the debt/GDP ratio past the tipping point at the same time it makes it harder to repay the debt.
On a planet with a shrinking number of fiat currencies, a devaluation in one pretty much equals an appreciation in another.
We could go back to trading currencies with an abacus if we had to, but we don't have to. Forex traders read the FOMC, and rice traders read Forex, in real time.
It also sends the debt/GDP ratio past the tipping point at the same time it makes it harder to repay the debt.
Rob:
Usually I disagree with you (I don't know about the "past the tipping point" part), but deflation does make debt harder to repay (and we certainly are a nation of debtors). So, does that mean we will have to inflate to offset the deflation that is taking place now?
RD wrote something on the last thread that went off like a cheap, wet Chinese sparkler in my head.
Nothing is going to change in America that involves pain. This is a rich country an every resource will be used to delay that event. This is on a personal, corporate, and government level. That does mean that that those who have have will not hesitate to kick to the curb anyone and anything in order to stay comfortable.Since we are so rich this is going to take awhile.
In the meantime if you can be considered expendable -- you will be. Cities, counties, states, they will be dumping employees in droves soon. It is the slow slide into squalor.
One advantage our retail merchants will have over most every other hyperinflation situation is the idea of having to continually raise prices will be much easier, just change the bar-code prices on everything by a certain percentage, no biggie.
I was in Mexico when they had their ordeal with hyperinflation, and imagine having to manually raise prices on everything once a month, and then once a week, and then every few days?
I suppose it was like a 2nd job for the proprietor, just trying to figure out what to charge for things and still hopefully make a profit...
More evidence of Bernanke's duplicity. Just as the only bubbles he ever sees are the ones in the past and in the future, so the only bailouts he opposes are the ones in the past and in the future. We'll never see him actually take anti-oligarchy action in the present, when it counts, to burst a bubble or block a bailout. Instead he'll academically analyze the need for tightening in the past, and academically muse about the need for tightening in the future, and in the present he will always ease and bail.
I was late to the last thread. I can appreciate how the cash investors in Phoenix can cash flow the properties as rentals right now. I wonder how much if any consideration they have given to a scenario where UE remains at a high level and/or economic activity does not pick up in the Phoenix area?
From reading Benjamin Roth's observations during the Great Depression he related 2nd lien holders who bought out the first only to lose their entire investment when prices dropped further and the properties didn't cash flow.
More striking was the landlords - they had buildings full of people who were not paying rent since they weren't working. Early on, they pushed them out and replaced them with homeowners who had lost their homes to foreclosure and were now renters. When that supply of paying renters dried up the landlords were stuck with properties that did not cash flow. Some resorted to demolishing the buildings to save money on taxes.
I'm not suggesting this will happen this go round - but it would be in the back of my mind if I were considering purchase of an investment property. Though at $30k the downside is limited - limited to $30k and whatever tax levies the govt can extract...
Nothing is going to change in America that involves pain.
Yep, and the least painful option is to print. Until we can't anymore.
The US has approximately followed the Japanese response. My personal timeline says that the US is Japan + 10 years. All else remaining equal, Japan probably has 2 - 3 years left before it has to repudiate some debt. This says about 12 years for the US descent into third world-dom.
...ran into the Fresno Cycling Club in a restaurant, and I love to listen in on conversations given the opportunity, and they were the next table over, and one of the cyclists was a teacher somewhere and he was complaining quite loudly how one had to watch their p's and q's, as they were looking for any reason to get rid of teachers salaries nowadays~
There’s a mirror likeness between those two
shining, youthfully-fledged figures, though
one seems paler than the other and more austere,
I might even say more perfect, more distinguished,
than he, who would take me confidingly in his arms –
how soft then and loving his smile, how blessed his glance!
Then, it might well have been that his wreath
of white poppies gently touched my forehead, at times,
and drove the pain from my mind with its strange scent.
But that is transient. I can only, now, be well,
when the other one, so serious and pale,
the older brother, lowers his dark torch. –
Sleep is so good, Death is better, yet
surely never to have been born is best.
On a planet with a shrinking number of fiat currencies, a devaluation in one pretty much equals an appreciation in another.
I disagree. They can all depreciate versus real assets (gold, oil, etc).
in fact, I would argue that this has been going on for many decades.
(how much did a candy bar or oil cost in $, pound, franc, yen, etc in 1955 compared to 2000)
they will continue to do so. There will be a race to the bottom as they all try to competitively devalue (especially the mercantilists), but the only way "out" is for all countries to devalue together, since they almost all have debt burdens that are unsupportable in nominal terms given future demographic patterns.
Some new music I encountered today at the gym. The commentariat has opined often that 'Merica is to oblivious to do anything about what is happening. Seems as if I am seeing more music that speaks to the various ills such as this song by Innerpartysystem.
Aside from the merchants of war and Hollywood, buying and selling homes to one-another seems to have been the bread-winner for many in the City of Angles...
Speaking of debt:
House Democrat official: 'We've got the votes' on health care - CNN.com
I hope I'm wrong and this isn't the straw that pushes us over the edge financially.
They still need to find a dozen votes of the 18 undeclared and the 4 that are lying (like Sanchez). Close but not 216.
But we need a recovery first, and then we can discuss deficit reduction.
The American political mood oscillates between "We need to fix the deficit, but we can't in a recession." and "We don't need to fix the deficit, because we not in a recession."
Now is the time to address the structural deficit, when there is some worry in Congress. Pass laws now that reduce spending later. We can't fix the deficit in one year or even in one decade but we need to get started yesterday.
Now is the time to address the structural deficit, when there is some worry in Congress. Pass laws now that reduce spending later. We can't fix the deficit in one year or even in one decade but we need to get started yesterday.
+1 The problem is they know they won't be in office when the deficit really becomes a problem.
Now we have the teabagger crew calling Congressmen niggers and faggots and carrying signs threatening gun violence. Nice group of people. I would give them the benefit of a doubt and say it is just a 'few bad apples" but every single one that I know personally has used those same words in front of me. Yesterday they had the unmitigated gall to call John Lewis a nigger. The man marched in Selma with King. A Civil Rights Icon and still having to listen to this bullshit? Enough. These people need to be "retired".
The problem is they know they won't be in office when the deficit really becomes a problem.
[repeat] I am reminded of an old New England Yankee story. The tiny Vermont town where everyone knew everyone going back 6 generations had one of those occasional problems. The young mayor saw that the granite steps to the town hall were worn and dangerous. The replacement costs were exorbitant but true to the frugal miser reputation that was his heritage he hit upon an idea. "Hey, we'll just take the existing step and flip them upside down. Let's find out if it will work." Clever fellow. About two hours later the engineer comes up to him with good news and bad news. The good news is that he's sure it will work. The bad news is that the mayor's great grandfather had the idea first.
We've heard many times that the US economy is about to collapse because of excessive future obligations.
Just to put things in perspective here, supporting the baby boomers' retirement and health demands will require a shift of 10-15% in GDP. It's going to be very meaningful, and needs to be managed to have as low an impact as possible, but it is not the end of the world, or even of the USA.
Thanks for the link to the money magazine article in the last thread.WOW,Santa Rosa Ca is going to be one of the BIG WINNERS! as RE prices once again begin their inevitable upward march...thrilling news!!.Oh,wait,where are the jobs.....
The largest costs will come from Medicare. They system is broken. The Insurance companies get the young, healthy clients and their premiums. As soon as they reach an age that they will actually NEED healthcare they get pushed onto the taxpayers. Nice racket they got going. The obvious answer is to open Medicare up to we younger healthier people that don't use medical care. Let us pay our premiums to Medicare, I'd much rather that than help another CEO out on his 100 million dollar bonus. Cigna Ex-CEO Hanway's Retirement Payments Near $111 Million - WSJ.com
House Democrat official: 'We've got the votes' on health care - CNN.com
I hope I'm wrong and this isn't the straw that pushes us over the edge financially.
Maybe it's just what we need to finally break "it" beyond repair.
Like the poor person who drives their junker until it literally dies on the side of the road, we've got a "vehicle" whose rings are shot and spewing smoke to high heaven, the tires are bald, the windows don't go up or down, and the radio is kaput.
And yet we keep pulling into the gas station, "Check the gas and fill the oil." Every few miles we have to pull over and put another plug into one of the tires. And there's a portable radio coathangered to the dashboard.
They don't perceive it to be a problem now. I'm not sure what will be the lightbulb moment - most likely an inability to roll the existing debt over. By then it will be too late to do anything - except default or devalue. Same result in the end.
A couple years ago it was all about the political economy, accountable government (ha!) and reform. That window has closed, and we're facing the consequences.
Now I'm convinced that it's about consciousness, and how we deal with the consequences.
Like it or not, people are going to have to recognize their common nemesis and come together somehow.
Comrade Kristina, can you shift your more provocative and political commentary back to Daily Kos? Some of us read CR for economics and light, not politics and heat. I realize we may be a minority by now, in which case y'all carry on with the politicization and polemics, and I'll steer clear.
In the meantime if you can be considered expendable -- you will be. Cities, counties, states, they will be dumping employees in droves soon. It is the slow slide into squalor.
We have been, are and will be lowering our standard of living in almost every segment or our country. First was manufaturing, call centers. Then construction, more manufacturing, retail & service jobs went away. Next up is education and gov jobs. The jobs that remain are paying lower wages.
We will have higher taxes, higher food costs, higher utilitiy bills.
Either each of us can decide how we want to lower our standard of living or we can have it forced on us.
I agree - that chart doesn't make much sense. I would have thought that the appropriate measure of debt saturation would be the simple arithmetic ability of the available money supply to meet all monthly debt and capital servicing, modulo some fudge factor for the uneven distribution of money within the economy.
It's harder than it should be to calculate what the relevant money supply is, given that M2 and above measures all include some forms of debt, but back of the envelope doesn't indicate particular problems there, especially with the current interest rates. Until the wealth inequality effects are factored in that is.
The obvious answer is to open Medicare up to we younger healthier people that don't use medical care. Let us pay our premiums to Medicare, I'd much rather that than help another CEO out on his 100 million dollar bonus.
That is the obvious solution, and the rest of the first world agrees, and does it for half the price, and lives longer.
Of course, the sheeple here have drank the kool aid, and are concerned with the revenue flow to their corporate masters.
Scottrade recently polled 226 registered investment advisers on the topic and found that 71% don't believe $1 million is enough for the average American family. Most said families need to save double, or more than triple, the amount.
"Younger generations, especially, need to set their retirement goals higher than other generations and start saving as early as possible," says Craig Hogan, Scottrade's director of customer-relationship management and reporting.
The survey solicited opinions about the current investment habits of Americans. Questions were broken down by generations to determine advisers' opinions on average investment goals in today's dollars for various groups.
Generation Y (ages 18 to 26) needs to save at least $2 million, according to 77% of advisers. Forty percent put the figure at $3 million.
Nearly half of advisers (46%) said Generation X (ages 27 to 42) should at least double the $1 million goal. Twenty-two percent suggested more than $3 million.
For Boomers (ages 43 to 64), 35% recommended $2 million to $3 million. Thirty percent suggested $1.5 million to $2 million.
According to Scottrade's analysis, seniors are the only generation that may come close to needing only $1 million. Forty-four percent of advisers said $500,000 to $1.5 million is sufficient for average families in that age bracket.
We've all been guessing the potential impact of the Fed's ending of MBS purchases this month. This story highlights the fact that another arm of the government has been ramping up the money it's pumping into the mortgage securities markets, and plans to put in a total of $200bn over a few months. This will more than offset the (highly publicized) ending of the Fed purchases. We haven't yet seen the real impact of a withdrawal of government support from the mortgage securities market, and we won't for at least several months.
Save a million? BWAHAHAHAHAHA The average employee in this country barely makes that in 40 years. Reality, what a concept
it's easy actually.
Make $20,000 a year without benefits at Walmart or whatever
Use an FHA loan to buy a house with nothing down. (ok, 3% down, but you can get that from a downpayment assistance program or the FTHB credit)
Refinance the house every few years and pull out your "dead" equity
Put the extracted equity into the stock market which seems to be making about 60% returns per year now that the crisis is over.
sell the house in 40 years for $3M.
I agree with you that this strategy wouldn't work in 2007-2009 during the Great Recession, but we're back to normal now. And not a second too soon IMO.
I don't disagree. The problem with that is many of the voters have a vested interest in maintaining the status quo. I look at what is happening to Gov Patterson in NY - he has spoken openly about the need to gasp cut spending and in turn his own party has thrown him under the bus. Nothing will change until an outside influence forces change - in this case that outside influence will be a dearth of foreign buyers of our debt.
It's the same situation with everything Obama inherited, the status quo was looking down the barrel of instant unemployment if he stopped deployments, and the show must go on...
Well, the strategy you outline has worked well for millions of people in the more bubbly RE areas in the US and around the world over the last 5, 10, and 30 years.
But it hasn't worked quite so well for those who lived in the Midwest and Texas and other areas that missed most of the RE bubble.
It is also unsustainable, as we first saw clearly in the last 2 years. Govt money patched over the hole in the logic for the present, and might be able to keep the dream alive for another 5-10 years, but eventually people will have to confront the reality that getting paid enough to retire on, in return for sitting on a couch in a big expensive home, isn't an economic model that can work for all the people all of the time.
Edit: I did realize you were being sarcastic, but I couldn't resist commenting.
Just imagine... over a 50 year career, that's $40-60,000 annually that you have to come up with from somewhere.
You missed the implied sales pitch: You will never come up with that number unless you give large sums of money to us, and we will (through the magic of compounding) make it into a be-YU-tiful nest egg for you.
Good point JP, I should have said the majority, not the average The majority make much less than 50K per year. My husband and I both work full time and made less than that together last year.
Believe it or not: I really did mean median, so half make less than 50K and half make more.
(also note that the number in wikipedia was 2007. It has probably dropped since then?)
km4 wrote: These 'detached from reality' investment advisers are talking to much less than 1% of Americans
'Retirement' has existed for a long time, it's just that it formerly was only applicable to a very small percentage of the population with enough put away that they could afford to live comfortably from the lower, minimal-risk returns provided purely through passive income. Now we have been sold the idea that everyone can be a Lord of the FIRE.
The last numbers I saw were 50% make 32K or less per year JP. Grrrrr now I have to go on a fact finding mission...I forget what year that data was for. Maybe I saved the link...
But it hasn't worked quite so well for those who lived in the Midwest and Texas and other areas that missed most of the RE bubble.
(sigh). Haven't you seen? All the people in flyover land are moving to the sunbelt and other bubble areas anyway. Thus, problem solved.
That's WHY we have bubbles in the bubble areas: Everybody wants to live there (trademark).
It is a mathematical fact that eventually everybody will live in California, Nevada, Arizona, and Florida. Eventually.
If you find that your annual house appreciation is less than 10% per year forever, then clearly you are living in the wrong place. You should move as soon as possible to a place where housing goes up 10%/year forever, otherwise you are a whiner.
We spend too much money foolish fighting wars and building useless armaments. If that stopped, we could return to balanced budgets. Doesn't Allen always ask when the war will be over? Ike knew the answer 60 years ago.
re: GSEs Green Light $200bn Buyout of Seriously Delinquent Mortgages « HousingWire
patientrenter, I'm deeply confused about this buyout ...
I think this means the investors don't lose their investment even though these mortgages would be (have been?) written off.
But what has happened to the people in the houses? They may or may not still be there? I guess the GSE will service or hold this paper now, in perpetuity, or sell it deeply discounted later.
Is this what we're doing with the future of this country? Just unloading the amount it took to get humans on the moon in a few months to indemnify losses for some investors (GS or foreign banks perhaps?)
Comrade Kristina wrote: The last numbers I saw were 50% make 32K or less per year JP
That's individual personal income, I'd suspect. Another lovely cover-up of economic reality is the way figures for individual personal income and family income are used almost interchangeably when they are actually very different numbers.
We spend too much money foolish fighting wars and building useless armaments.
And what would we do then if the people who owned those resources we need actually said we couldn't have them?
Can't do without an army to enforce and obtain resources.
Anonymous Bosch (profile) wrote on Sun, 3/21/2010 - 8:18 am
So all you have to do is go without a roof, clothes, food, or transportation for 40 years, and you're good to go. Makes perfect sense.
Analogous to how the gumbit calculates CPI i.e. if you don't eat and drive there's not really that much inflation so you're OK
For Boomers (ages 43 to 64), 35% recommended $2 million to $3 million. Thirty percent suggested $1.5 million to $2 million.
The goal I set for myself in 1991 was $1.25 million. Looks like that may not be enough, and it may be impossible to hit my original target now given the last few years.
Yearning to Learn wrote: You should move as soon as possible to a place where housing goes up 10%/year forever, otherwise you are a whiner.
Like, duh... If there is less money at A than at B you move to B. Or you could just change careers and become a neurosurgeon, and if that doesn't work out, maybe you can change again and be a microcode engineer. Maybe an NBA player.
as I said above, PART of a successful retirement is buying an FHA home with a 3% down payment (paid for by the First time Homebuyer Credit) and selling said home for $3M in 40 years.
as patientrenter so eloquently states out: this doesn't work for the losers in the flyover land.
BUT AS ALWAYS I HAVE A SOLUTION:
as I said above, the SECOND leg of YTL's retirement stool is the equities market.
In the last year the stock market went up 60% year based on sound fundamentals.
Clearly, the stock market can't go up 60% per year forever,so I'll be conservative and say that it goes up 20% per pear forever.
If it does this, then the average joe will need to sock away just $3,000/year at 20% per year over 40 years, and they will have
$18.3M in retirement savings in 40 years.
excellent. AND with conservative estimates too.
(full disclosure: I used a retirement calculator and it wouldn't let me put in 60% per year forever, but it would let me put in 20% per year forever. That's why I used 20% per year forever. If a calculator will let me do it, then CLEARLY it is possible).
So
Leg of stool 1: $3-4 M from your primary residence
Leg of stool 2: $18.3M from equities.
I think this means the investors don't lose their investment even though these mortgages would be (have been?) written off.
Rex, these MBS were already guaranteed by the GSEs, so the investors already had the right to get their principal back. What's significant is that:
$200bn of cash will be going into the pockets of existing holders of MBS, and that will make it available for purchases of new MBS. It's not quite as direct as the current Fed purchases of MBS, but it's almost as effective in pumping money into new purchases of MBSs, thereby keeping the demand for homes high.
The $200bn is being used to buy out the worst of the existing loans, so that means the GSEs can modify those loans very generously, thereby preventing those homes from coming on the market. This will dry up supply in the areas that were the most overpriced, thereby keeping home prices well above their true market-clearing levels.
Perry Mason (eyebrows working) was always talking about . . . "One Hundred Thousand Dollars."
Since then, a solid history of saver theft, and worker theft. Two oars of the same boat.
And the workers and savers are fighting each other over, what, who pays for grampa's dentures?
A moment to savor is when SS sends me a summary of the payroll taxes I paid in over the years. Teenage gas pumping during the nixonian reign is in there, so assiduous are they.
@ResistanceIsFeudal (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Sun, 3/21/2010 - 8:20 am
Now we have been sold the idea that everyone can be a Lord of the FIRE
Yup gotta keep that illusion of American Dream alive....
And don't listen to Elizabeth Warren who says she's afraid of what the future holds for the economic well-being of almost all Americans.
Like I've been say....
1950's to 1980's viable middle class
1980's to 2005 asset inflated middle class
2005 + fast diminishing middle class
but the elites will keep on selling that illusive American Dream to the unwashed masses probably until there's a revolution !
Yearning to Learn wrote: I used a retirement calculator and it wouldn't let me put in 60% per year forever, but it would let me put in 20% per year forever.
That is a totally reasonable assumption I think, and solidly supported by at least eight months of historical data. Would you like to come and work for our firm? We sell mostly to government pension funds.
A moment to savor is when SS sends me a summary of the payroll taxes I paid in over the years. Teenage gas pumping during the nixonian reign is in there, so assiduous are they.
$1-3 MM is not out of the question at all. It does depend on what you call retired. Never lift a finger and live off of accumulation or cash flow investing with management.
CK,
Kind of back ups when I said most Americans don't work smart or hard enough. Safety net failure in reverse.
A friend had an L.A. Times from the day after RFK's assasination in 1968, a full copy.
I went to the classified ads section, and the most expensive home listed was in tony Bel Air for $125k.
Quick, repeat after me, "Inflation is not a problem". Chant that a thousand times, every hour. Gotta clear out those bad thoughts! Better yet, just quit thinking.
although my last few posts are clearly snark, it is disheartening to me how many people believed exactly those types of ridiculous numbers. Even now after 10 years of minimal S&P growth and 3 years of massive RE pain I STILL see people using retirement calculators and using 8% returns on equities and 7-10% returns on housing.
given demographic shifts it is not implausible that we will have decade(s) of minimal S&P growth and decade(s) of stagnant home prices (in real terms of course, nominal is anybody's guess).
the problem, as always, is that we live in such a way as to use our materials unsustainably. If we were to ever go back to 2006 again we would see immediate runups in all commodities (steel, lumber, oil, you name it).
in the end, we cannot afford the medical care we receive, we cannot afford the size of the homes in which we live, we cannot afford the things that surround us.
debt allowed us to pretend for some time. but it's harder and harder to maintain the facade.
nonetheless, everyone is trying extra hard to see the emperor's clothes, and get us back to "normal" (which was 2006 of course)
Even now after 10 years of minimal S&P growth and 3 years of massive RE pain I STILL see people using retirement calculators and using 8% returns on equities and 7-10% returns on housing.
Even now after 10 years of minimal S&P growth and 3 years of massive RE pain I STILL see people using retirement calculators and using 8% returns on equities and 7-10% returns on housing.
Which is why we should all pay William Sharp's newly public company to perform monte carlo sims of our retirement plans.
:eyeroll:
Net of expenses, taxes, and inflation, what do you think is the achievable long term rate of return on investment, averaged across all US savers?
Rather open ended question as to what ones standards are. Two with no debt would have a reasonable time around $50-75K a year. Depends where you live and your wants. I made money in very high wages and chunks in investments. Mostly RE and business. Still do. Again variable. Save 20% of you gross income including benefits and you will do well.
adornosghost wrote: Carp Fishing on Valium.
Damn you, that was my retirement plan.
I can't wait to see the shape we're in when 70% of the nation is on antidepressants and is legal.
March 21 (Bloomberg) -- House Democrats have more than enough votes to pass health-care overhaul legislation today, House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer, a Maryland
And so it goes. Yet another distraction, yet another wedge.
How are we going to pay for it? Quick! Set up your webpage, get your 800 number, Begin the "How to navigate the health care red tape" career field ver 3.5
How are we going to pay for it echoes down the empty hallway. Why we have to will be argued long after it is a done deal.
We passed feel good legislation while the house is on fire. No pain has been felt yet. It is getting unexpectedly warm.
I pumped gas for a living around that same time period. I look at my SS statement and wonder how the hell I did it. Being young is the only answer I can come up with.
Resistance is Feudal wrote: Like, duh... If there is less money at A than at B you move to B. Or you could just change careers and become a neurosurgeon, and if that doesn't work out, maybe you can change again and be a microcode engineer. Maybe an NBA player.
and then: That is a totally reasonable assumption I think, and solidly supported by at least eight months of historical data. Would you like to come and work for our firm? We sell mostly to government pension funds.
RiF:
I am sorry, but I cannot work for your firm right away. I will soon be tapped to be the next "Recovery Czar" where I will be in charge of recovery. I may also have some oversight and regulatory responsibilities for the big Wall Street Firms depending on whether or not "Consumer Protection" is considered to be a part of recovery or not. A person of my knowledge and integrity is needed to restore confidence in the marketplace.
I will work there for a month or two, until recovery is completely assured. I will then go and work for the private sector.
Although I cannot work for you right now, I could be convinced to be a board member or take on some advisory role in your company.
Bidding on my services will commence immediately. May I remind you, that I have Summers/Geithners/Obama's ears, and yes I do take American Express?
on a side note, I like the cut of your jib. Perhaps you should come and work for me instead, together we could be quite formidable.
@ResistanceIsFeudal (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Sun, 3/21/2010 - 8:49 am
I can't wait to see the shape we're in when 70% of the nation is on antidepressants and Currently Smoking Cannibis is legal.
Perhaps renewed interest in commune living like back in late 1960's early 1970's since real estate will be kaput
For an economy in a steady state, with around 1% population growth and around 1% productivity growth, I tend to agree. And if people did their retirement calculations using 1-3%, everyone would see very quickly how much they can really afford to spend, how much they really need to earn, how much they can really afford to pay in taxes, and how early they can really retire. It would be shocking, as we can see from the incredulity several people have already expressed here, and would lead to major and positive behavioral changes. Of course, that will never happen.
We are not in a steady state. As the baby boomers have grown into their peak earning years, the demand for investments has gone above steady state levels, increasing their prices above their steady state level. That's why P/E ratios are much higher now than in comparable periods of the business cycle back in the mid-1980's and earlier in our history. As the baby boomers age further, the proportion of people who are retired will grow, and this will necessarily lower the returns on their investments as they start to cash out in ever greater numbers in order to pay their medical and other bills . Since the market value of these investments will then be below their steady state level, the true net real returns on US investments over the next 20-30 years could be well below 1-3%, perhaps by a substantial amount.
The long article linked below is about journalism, but it overlaps with the financial crisis in interesting ways. Note that, after Party A successfully sued Party B, Party B's parent company got involved, along with the bank that funded the parent company's takeover of various newspapers. Now that the Great Unwind is here, it's very hard to get a bank to let go of $16 million --- even when they were legally ordered to do so.
Yearning to Learn wrote: Bidding on my services will commence immediately. May I remind you, that I have Summers/Geithners/Obama's ears, and yes I do take American Express? + =
Sadly, we're both probably going to be aped in comedic value by what actually happens out there...
Ahhhh fond memories. I worked after school (grade school) in the bookstore where my mom worked. I wrapped packages and took them to the Post Office down the street. It was the first time I was made responsible for handling OPM. Can't remember if I was paid or not.
First real job as a carpenter's apprentice paid $11.00/day take-home, not included was the 1.5 hour commute each way.
@ResistanceIsFeudal (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Sun, 3/21/2010 - 8:49 am
I can't wait to see the shape we're in when 70% of the nation is on antidepressants and Currently Smoking Cannibis is legal.
Perhaps renewed interest in commune living like back in late 1960's early 1970's since real estate will be kaput
Communes are a good idea. I mean, you have to replace capitalism with something.
Hawley Smoot wrote: Communes are a good idea. I mean, you have to replace capitalism with something.
Communes sound like a great idea until you actually factor real humans and our egos and pettiness into the equation.
I'm off to stimulate the economy. Need chlorine for the pool, work boots for hubby and some groceries. More like "teasing" the economy now that I think about it.
nova wrote: they cut it off when they had a pool of 600 people that matched the basic criteria.
Just think of the wages they can offer with that many competitors! See, depression and high unemployment means very good times for some people! Ironically, it's mostly those whose irresponsibility and greed resulted in the depression and high unemployment.
There's more though, right CK? Vaca, annuity, retirement acc?
Depending on whom I'm speaking to, (snotty or not snotty,) I quote "the envelop" or "the whole package." I love the look on snotty faces when I quote the whole package.
No hills here. but a bus ride to get to the boss's house to ride a long way out into the hinterlands to put up the first of a sea of developments.
Since the market value of these investments will then be below their steady state level, the true net real returns on US investments over the next 20-30 years could be well below 1-3%, perhaps by a substantial amount.
Sadly I must agree. I was trying to be optimistic. My retirement plan more and more is looking like trying to find a country with currency worth much less than the dollar and move there...
But that won't be for another 20 yrs or so - so its not much of a plan at this point. At a minimum it will be someplace that I don't need heat in the winter to avoid freezing to death.
Republican Canon to right of them,
Democrat Canon to left of them,
Progressive Canon in front of them
Volley'd and thunder'd;
Storm'd at with taxes and health care,
Boldly they rode and well,
Into the jaws of Debt,
Into the mouth of who knows where
Rode the three hundred million.
1 currency now -yogi (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Sun, 3/21/2010 - 5:20 am On a planet with a shrinking number of fiat currencies, a devaluation in one pretty much equals an appreciation in another.
Unless you have a single reserve currency. This allows surplus nations to devalue vs. the reserve currency and will allow China to succumb to the pressure from Obama, Geithner, Krugman and CR and de-peg. But, the de-peg will be followed by a devaluation of the yuan. The US has had 60 years of positives by having the world's reserve currency, time for some negatives.
My wife woke up this morning, rolled over and asked, "If we had two million dollars, could we stop working?"
I thought about it: her, early sixties; me, middle fifties. No good ROI on anything out there that isn't speculation, everything priced wrong, having to pick up our own insurance, possibility of catastrophic medical bills. And I said, "no."
As to why she asked, she suspects she has psychic powers. Every woman I've ever been with did, I must attract them. She dreamed there were couple of mllion out there that belonged to us that we didn't know about. Since she has a 90-year-old father who's well-off and who she hasn't spoken to in 25 years -- and who couldn't find us if he tried -- I'm thinking it's more regret that psychic powers.
My retirement plan more and more is looking like trying to find a country with currency worth much less than the dollar and move there.
Don't you want a currency worth much more than the US dollar. Didn't you mention Lords of FIRE upthread?
Are those salt and pepper layer cut, wind tossed retirees, grinning vigorously with preternaturally white teeth as they walk hand in hand down the beach not Lord Like enough?
Contact your financial planner at once! It's never too late to plan for a secure retirement!
Bob Dobbs wrote: As to why she asked, she suspects she has psychic powers. Every woman I've ever been with did, I must attract them.
This begs the question -- is a dreamed different than a real ??
And I'm off to refill the coffers of the MIC, EIC, CJIC, and the FEIC. I know that's a lot to ask of a load of cat food, but hey, one has to do one's part, right.
Most western world retirement systems are pay-as-you-go and dependent on continuous average yearly 1-2 percent GDP growth. Throw a 20 percent GDP collapse into to the system plus 20 percent unemployment rate and retired boomers will be growing their own food and buy maybe even whopping three potatoes with the monthly retirement check...
Anak wrote: It's never too late to plan for a secure retirement!
1970-2010: Plan for a secure retirement
2010-2020: Plan to secure a retirement
2020-2030: Retire to a secure plantation
Residents of Oregon and Washington will remember[by whom?] TV commercials featuring Bob Hazen, President, a short fellow with a high voice, hawking toasters and other free gifts to woo new depositors, and pitching their other products and services. Bog Hazen is credited with inventing the thrift marketing phrase: "Pay Yourself First."
Communes sound like a great idea until you actually factor real humans and our egos and pettiness into the equation.
Our house has hubby & I, female roommate with 8yr old son and a friend here for several weeks while this house is fixed due to a major flood. Mini-commune.
We also have a friend (50+ male) who may want to move in.
Tom Stone wrote: RiF,I would probably be making mint juleps and playing the banjo for oprah's kids if I could find a secure plantation.
Not a bad plan. Of course the unstated assumption is that some will own the plantation they retire to, while others... not so much.
josap wrote: Our house has hubby & I, female roommate with 8yr old son and a friend here for several weeks while this house is fixed due to a major flood. Mini-commune.
I have no doubt it can be made to work. I also have little doubt that it will never constitute the majority of living arrangements even when it would otherwise be forced economically.
Our house has hubby & I, female roommate with 8yr old son and a friend here for several weeks while this house is fixed due to a major flood. Mini-commune.. We also have a friend (50+ male) who may want to move in.
People will do what they have to do. Somebody (Mary Ann?) posted last night about her county of 20K where there's no real economy left except gov't and healthcare; households already doubled and tripled up, doctors completing for the business of the few people who have insurance (mainly gov't), etc. etc. It might be nasty; but if it has to happen, it will.
That seems to be an insult directed at Wal-mart and thus the hope that The People's Republic of China will stay out of the new global capitalist order.... need
Elderly, ill friend of roommates had to move to assited living. The people she was staying with after being unable to live alone have refused to give her - her belongings. Those include clothes, wheel chair, walker and oxegen tanks.
Five male friends and two female just left our house to meet the cops to repatriate her belongings. This is not acceptable or allowed in my group of friends. So we do what we need to do to fix it. None of us, other than our roommate, have ever met this lady.
he has spoken openly about the need to gasp cut spending and in turn his own party has thrown him under the bus.
That's the party apparatus, not the public, not voters. In OR, a tax increase was passed. The question in OR remains (in my mind anyway) is if the additional revenue will be used for what I think of as "community" purposes, schools, basic services, infrastructure maintenance and/or repair, & I also classify mass transit in this category (know others may disagree).
I think that many voters---as opposed to party apparachniks, those who control the media, & a minority of voters--would agree to some tax increases if: (1) they aren't regressive; (2) they are dedicated to specific purposes. For example, some of the polls indicate that a majority of those polled wanted reform of the way health care is provided in the US--but often the options people favor, single payer, very broad public option, expanded Medicare with Medicare empowered to negotiate w/Big Pharma to decrease medication costs (as the VA does), are not even considered by most of our current representatives.
We really do need campaign finance reform. Plus overturning, via constitutional amendment or Congressional action (not likely) the US S.Ct decision that corporations are "persons".
Let us pay our premiums to Medicare, I'd much rather that than help another CEO out on his 100 million dollar bonus.
I have been working on this (Medicare for All) for the last 8 months. It is so hard to get people to realize the extent to which insurance company profits are killing healthcare. Of course, it makes it easier for the health insurance cos. when Congress is in their pocket.
a structural deficit that will be very difficult to resolve.
Well, the choices are 1. spend less or 2. earn more, which simplifies the problem considerably.
You're welcome.
For the United States, “a higher public savings rate will be required to ensure long-term fiscal sustainability,” Mr. Lipsky said.
Bwahahah! Name one policy in the past 60 years that rewarded saving.
"But we need a recovery first, and then we can discuss deficit reduction."
..and then we must discuss deficit reduction?
No recovery until US government stops borrowing so that investors must invest in businesses and grow the private sector vs. the safety of US gov. debt
I would rather have the US print every dime that they need and introduced a $5-$10T in new dollars over a few years vs. sucking the capital out of the global economy.
Ever been to Asia?
Saving face is just as important as saving money there.
Some of us have been warning about the debt levels for years:
charles hugh smith-Comparing Household Net Worth to Total Credit: U.S. Is Insolvent
JP, I argued that Bush-Greenspan were wrong in 2001 and the proposed fiscal policies would lead to large structural deficits.
From Greenspan in 2001:
FRB: Testimony, Greenspan -- Current fiscal issues -- March 2, 2001
In 2001 Greenspan talked of surpluses for the foreseeable future. Greenspan offered projections of "an on-budget surplus of almost $500 billion ... in fiscal year 2010". How did that work out?
He argued the National Debt would soon be retired and the Boomer's retirements secure and provided a projection of "an implicit on-budget surplus under baseline assumptions well past 2030 despite the budgetary pressures from the aging of the baby-boom generation, especially on the major health programs."
Geesh ... I knew it was nonsense when I heard it!
best to all
It is tough to try and save in something with an implicit progressive discount
Juvenal Delinquent, I understand. That is why I noted where he was. It seemed natural for Lipsky to criticize China in this speech - it is tough to rebalance the world with China's currency manipulation - but probably not while speaking in China!
best wishes
Uhh, "Lipsky"--- is that a Chinese name? A citizen of the world, maybe?
Maybe you can't criticize China's currency manipulation without implicitly criticizing the US's currency manipulation.
tg's link to...Nathan's Economic Edge
would have been more fitting in this thread. What a shocker. 
This chart probably says it all.
From the link, Greenspan says: But continuing to run surpluses beyond the point at which we reach zero or near-zero federal debt brings to center stage the critical longer-term fiscal policy issue of whether the federal government should accumulate large quantities of private (more technically, nonfederal) assets.
Well, I'm sure glad we dodged having to worry about that problem.
The funny thing: Even once it was obvious that the bubble burst, he really took a long time to understand that he was in a new world. (Maybe I'm being harsh: I was in silicon valley at the time of this speech, and it sure felt like the world was ending.)
Anonymous Bosch wrote:
I wonder if Bernie Madoff had some similar charts near the end of his Ponzi...
China: "We're going to use the dollar to determine what our currency is worth."
US: "You can't use the dollar, you manipulators, that's our corner. Everyone knows the dollar is worth shit."
The public has been educated that saving is bad policy. Wonder where they got that idea? On the other hand saving takes discipline and simple money math another skill not taught.
1 currency now -yogi wrote:
1 currency now -yogi wrote:
And why was it different for Japan? Did we feel sorry for them? Because, hell, Rubin coordinated with them to intervene in the currency markets.
An important component of government strategy to heal the knabs' balance sheets was to let them feast on the yield curve. Nobody's yelling about the evil shorts in that game.
I don't get his first chart: http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_pCDyiFUv9XU/S6UGAnsGArI/AAAAAAAAI8s/1wHV7ehjQdo/s1600-h/Diminishing+Productivity+of+DEBT+%282%29.jpg
How does ΔGDP/ΔDebt have units of dollars? (esp since he claims that the chart is: "This is mathematical PROOF that debt saturation has occurred.")
CalculatedRisk wrote:
Tax revenues continued to increase but expenditures went exponential. Not just the two unfunded wars but more importantly the entitlements. The US does not have a revenue problem, it has a spending problem. Maybe $1T of the deficits since 2001 can be attributed to our foreign adventurism, For the other $4T you have to look to things like Medicare D.
JP wrote:
Well, JP, with a recession, I wouldn't bet on choice 2; so that leaves choice 1. What are the implications? Doesn't that necessarily mean deflation?
Having China revalue their currency upwards is good for us as we are the world's reserve currency, but being forced to devalue the dollar downward would be be a disaster, along the lines of the rock-solid British Pound being devalued, as they began their reign as an also-ran.
Been almost 1 yr since Simon Johnson gave this warning in The Quiet Coup - Magazine - The Atlantic
What's been done ? .......nothing, nada, Obama & Congress MIA,
and 19 too greedy to fail banks
OkieLawyer wrote:
It also sends the debt/GDP ratio past the tipping point at the same time it makes it harder to repay the debt.
I think it implies austerity. Whether that turns inflationary or deflationary is the choice of our politicians, imho.
So it appears IMF warnings are simply blown off and are
On a planet with a shrinking number of fiat currencies, a devaluation in one pretty much equals an appreciation in another.
We could go back to trading currencies with an abacus if we had to, but we don't have to. Forex traders read the FOMC, and rice traders read Forex, in real time.
Rob Dawg wrote:
Rob:
Usually I disagree with you (I don't know about the "past the tipping point" part), but deflation does make debt harder to repay (and we certainly are a nation of debtors). So, does that mean we will have to inflate to offset the deflation that is taking place now?
RD wrote something on the last thread that went off like a cheap, wet Chinese sparkler in my head.
Nothing is going to change in America that involves pain. This is a rich country an every resource will be used to delay that event. This is on a personal, corporate, and government level. That does mean that that those who have have will not hesitate to kick to the curb anyone and anything in order to stay comfortable.Since we are so rich this is going to take awhile.
In the meantime if you can be considered expendable -- you will be. Cities, counties, states, they will be dumping employees in droves soon. It is the slow slide into squalor.
Now, back to sleep
One advantage our retail merchants will have over most every other hyperinflation situation is the idea of having to continually raise prices will be much easier, just change the bar-code prices on everything by a certain percentage, no biggie.
I was in Mexico when they had their ordeal with hyperinflation, and imagine having to manually raise prices on everything once a month, and then once a week, and then every few days?
I suppose it was like a 2nd job for the proprietor, just trying to figure out what to charge for things and still hopefully make a profit...
Bernanke Says Large Bank Bailouts ‘Unconscionable,’ Must End - Bloomberg.com
More evidence of Bernanke's duplicity. Just as the only bubbles he ever sees are the ones in the past and in the future, so the only bailouts he opposes are the ones in the past and in the future. We'll never see him actually take anti-oligarchy action in the present, when it counts, to burst a bubble or block a bailout. Instead he'll academically analyze the need for tightening in the past, and academically muse about the need for tightening in the future, and in the present he will always ease and bail.
...how often do you hear the price of oil quoted in RMB's?
I was late to the last thread. I can appreciate how the cash investors in Phoenix can cash flow the properties as rentals right now. I wonder how much if any consideration they have given to a scenario where UE remains at a high level and/or economic activity does not pick up in the Phoenix area?
From reading Benjamin Roth's observations during the Great Depression he related 2nd lien holders who bought out the first only to lose their entire investment when prices dropped further and the properties didn't cash flow.
More striking was the landlords - they had buildings full of people who were not paying rent since they weren't working. Early on, they pushed them out and replaced them with homeowners who had lost their homes to foreclosure and were now renters. When that supply of paying renters dried up the landlords were stuck with properties that did not cash flow. Some resorted to demolishing the buildings to save money on taxes.
I'm not suggesting this will happen this go round - but it would be in the back of my mind if I were considering purchase of an investment property. Though at $30k the downside is limited - limited to $30k and whatever tax levies the govt can extract...
Wait until the US is labeled a rogue economic terrorist nation subject to currency export restrictions.
nova wrote:
Yep, and the least painful option is to print. Until we can't anymore.
The US has approximately followed the Japanese response. My personal timeline says that the US is Japan + 10 years. All else remaining equal, Japan probably has 2 - 3 years left before it has to repudiate some debt. This says about 12 years for the US descent into third world-dom.
Here is what is wrong with our country in a nutshell:
Some homeowners facing the prospect of repeated foreclosures
LA area, couple able to buy 3 homes having social security and workers comp as their only income.
"Bernanke Says My Large Bank Bailouts ‘Unconscionable,’ My Tenure Must End"
...ran into the Fresno Cycling Club in a restaurant, and I love to listen in on conversations given the opportunity, and they were the next table over, and one of the cyclists was a teacher somewhere and he was complaining quite loudly how one had to watch their p's and q's, as they were looking for any reason to get rid of teachers salaries nowadays~
nova wrote:
Death and his Brother Sleep (‘Morphine’)
There’s a mirror likeness between those two
shining, youthfully-fledged figures, though
one seems paler than the other and more austere,
I might even say more perfect, more distinguished,
than he, who would take me confidingly in his arms –
how soft then and loving his smile, how blessed his glance!
Then, it might well have been that his wreath
of white poppies gently touched my forehead, at times,
and drove the pain from my mind with its strange scent.
But that is transient. I can only, now, be well,
when the other one, so serious and pale,
the older brother, lowers his dark torch. –
Sleep is so good, Death is better, yet
surely never to have been born is best.
Heinrich Heine
On a planet with a shrinking number of fiat currencies, a devaluation in one pretty much equals an appreciation in another.
I disagree. They can all depreciate versus real assets (gold, oil, etc).
in fact, I would argue that this has been going on for many decades.
(how much did a candy bar or oil cost in $, pound, franc, yen, etc in 1955 compared to 2000)
they will continue to do so. There will be a race to the bottom as they all try to competitively devalue (especially the mercantilists), but the only way "out" is for all countries to devalue together, since they almost all have debt burdens that are unsupportable in nominal terms given future demographic patterns.
Speaking of debt:
House Democrat official: 'We've got the votes' on health care - CNN.com
I hope I'm wrong and this isn't the straw that pushes us over the edge financially.
nova wrote:
Too late. "The sleeper has awakened!"
Some new music I encountered today at the gym. The commentariat has opined often that 'Merica is to oblivious to do anything about what is happening. Seems as if I am seeing more music that speaks to the various ills such as this song by Innerpartysystem.
YouTube - Innerpartysystem - Don't Stop
A taste of the lyrics - its about infotainment/reality tv...
"The road I walk is paved in gold
to glorify my platinum soul
I'll buy my way to talk to god
so he can live with what i'm not
the selfish blood runs through my veins
i gave up everything for fame
i am the lie that you adore
i feed the rich and f*** the poor
I got, what you want
It's just, don't stop
I got, what you want
It's just, don't stop
nova wrote:
Work yer fingers to the bone, what do you get?
YouTube - Hoyt Axton - Boney Fingers
I know Nova's not too keen on the hillbilly stuff, so I hope he is really back to sleep!
Aside from the merchants of war and Hollywood, buying and selling homes to one-another seems to have been the bread-winner for many in the City of Angles...
Outsider wrote:
They still need to find a dozen votes of the 18 undeclared and the 4 that are lying (like Sanchez). Close but not 216.
CR wrote:
The American political mood oscillates between "We need to fix the deficit, but we can't in a recession." and "We don't need to fix the deficit, because we not in a recession."
Now is the time to address the structural deficit, when there is some worry in Congress. Pass laws now that reduce spending later. We can't fix the deficit in one year or even in one decade but we need to get started yesterday.
Rajesh wrote:
+1 The problem is they know they won't be in office when the deficit really becomes a problem.
Anak, here is an interesting history of labor and the capitalists.
Daily Kos: Right Wing Violence Is An American Tradition
Now we have the teabagger crew calling Congressmen niggers and faggots and carrying signs threatening gun violence. Nice group of people. I would give them the benefit of a doubt and say it is just a 'few bad apples" but every single one that I know personally has used those same words in front of me. Yesterday they had the unmitigated gall to call John Lewis a nigger. The man marched in Selma with King. A Civil Rights Icon and still having to listen to this bullshit? Enough. These people need to be "retired".
Mike in Long Island wrote:
[repeat] I am reminded of an old New England Yankee story. The tiny Vermont town where everyone knew everyone going back 6 generations had one of those occasional problems. The young mayor saw that the granite steps to the town hall were worn and dangerous. The replacement costs were exorbitant but true to the frugal miser reputation that was his heritage he hit upon an idea. "Hey, we'll just take the existing step and flip them upside down. Let's find out if it will work." Clever fellow. About two hours later the engineer comes up to him with good news and bad news. The good news is that he's sure it will work. The bad news is that the mayor's great grandfather had the idea first.
We've heard many times that the US economy is about to collapse because of excessive future obligations.
Just to put things in perspective here, supporting the baby boomers' retirement and health demands will require a shift of 10-15% in GDP. It's going to be very meaningful, and needs to be managed to have as low an impact as possible, but it is not the end of the world, or even of the USA.
Thanks for the link to the money magazine article in the last thread.WOW,Santa Rosa Ca is going to be one of the BIG WINNERS! as RE prices once again begin their inevitable upward march...thrilling news!!.Oh,wait,where are the jobs.....
Mike in Long Island wrote:
Are they in office now?
As American as cherry pie . . . .
The largest costs will come from Medicare. They system is broken. The Insurance companies get the young, healthy clients and their premiums. As soon as they reach an age that they will actually NEED healthcare they get pushed onto the taxpayers. Nice racket they got going. The obvious answer is to open Medicare up to we younger healthier people that don't use medical care. Let us pay our premiums to Medicare, I'd much rather that than help another CEO out on his 100 million dollar bonus. Cigna Ex-CEO Hanway's Retirement Payments Near $111 Million - WSJ.com
Maybe it's just what we need to finally break "it" beyond repair.
Like the poor person who drives their junker until it literally dies on the side of the road, we've got a "vehicle" whose rings are shot and spewing smoke to high heaven, the tires are bald, the windows don't go up or down, and the radio is kaput.
And yet we keep pulling into the gas station, "Check the gas and fill the oil." Every few miles we have to pull over and put another plug into one of the tires. And there's a portable radio coathangered to the dashboard.
All because the damned thing refuses to die.
Rajesh wrote:
They don't perceive it to be a problem now. I'm not sure what will be the lightbulb moment - most likely an inability to roll the existing debt over. By then it will be too late to do anything - except default or devalue. Same result in the end.
A couple years ago it was all about the political economy, accountable government (ha!) and reform. That window has closed, and we're facing the consequences.
Now I'm convinced that it's about consciousness, and how we deal with the consequences.
Like it or not, people are going to have to recognize their common nemesis and come together somehow.
Comrade Kristina, can you shift your more provocative and political commentary back to Daily Kos? Some of us read CR for economics and light, not politics and heat. I realize we may be a minority by now, in which case y'all carry on with the politicization and polemics, and I'll steer clear.
Mike in Long Island wrote:
I think our duty as voters is to enlighten them.
So the attempted coup in the 30's is not relative to the coup attempt now? Okay.
nova wrote:
We have been, are and will be lowering our standard of living in almost every segment or our country. First was manufaturing, call centers. Then construction, more manufacturing, retail & service jobs went away. Next up is education and gov jobs. The jobs that remain are paying lower wages.
We will have higher taxes, higher food costs, higher utilitiy bills.
Either each of us can decide how we want to lower our standard of living or we can have it forced on us.
I think you criticism of CK is off base. You are just biased against Daily Kos.
I agree - that chart doesn't make much sense. I would have thought that the appropriate measure of debt saturation would be the simple arithmetic ability of the available money supply to meet all monthly debt and capital servicing, modulo some fudge factor for the uneven distribution of money within the economy.
It's harder than it should be to calculate what the relevant money supply is, given that M2 and above measures all include some forms of debt, but back of the envelope doesn't indicate particular problems there, especially with the current interest rates. Until the wealth inequality effects are factored in that is.
Comrade Kristina wrote:
That is the obvious solution, and the rest of the first world agrees, and does it for half the price, and lives longer.
Of course, the sheeple here have drank the kool aid, and are concerned with the revenue flow to their corporate masters.
Scottrade recently polled 226 registered investment advisers on the topic and found that 71% don't believe $1 million is enough for the average American family. Most said families need to save double, or more than triple, the amount.
"Younger generations, especially, need to set their retirement goals higher than other generations and start saving as early as possible," says Craig Hogan, Scottrade's director of customer-relationship management and reporting.
The survey solicited opinions about the current investment habits of Americans. Questions were broken down by generations to determine advisers' opinions on average investment goals in today's dollars for various groups.
Generation Y (ages 18 to 26) needs to save at least $2 million, according to 77% of advisers. Forty percent put the figure at $3 million.
Nearly half of advisers (46%) said Generation X (ages 27 to 42) should at least double the $1 million goal. Twenty-two percent suggested more than $3 million.
For Boomers (ages 43 to 64), 35% recommended $2 million to $3 million. Thirty percent suggested $1.5 million to $2 million.
According to Scottrade's analysis, seniors are the only generation that may come close to needing only $1 million. Forty-four percent of advisers said $500,000 to $1.5 million is sufficient for average families in that age bracket.
1-million-doesnt-cut-it-for-retirement: Personal Finance News from Yahoo! Finance
These 'detached from reality' investment advisers are talking to much less than 1% of Americans
GSEs Green Light $200bn Buyout of Seriously Delinquent Mortgages « HousingWire
We've all been guessing the potential impact of the Fed's ending of MBS purchases this month. This story highlights the fact that another arm of the government has been ramping up the money it's pumping into the mortgage securities markets, and plans to put in a total of $200bn over a few months. This will more than offset the (highly publicized) ending of the Fed purchases. We haven't yet seen the real impact of a withdrawal of government support from the mortgage securities market, and we won't for at least several months.
Save a million? BWAHAHAHAHAHA The average employee in this country barely makes that in 40 years. Reality, what a concept.
One of the reasons there hasn't been many bank runs so far, is you'd need to actually have money in the bank, in order to withdraw it...
A frightening amount of adults have less than $10k in retirement savings, yikes~
What's the commission income for those so called registered investment advisers on the retirement "goals"?
it's easy actually.
Make $20,000 a year without benefits at Walmart or whatever
Use an FHA loan to buy a house with nothing down. (ok, 3% down, but you can get that from a downpayment assistance program or the FTHB credit)
Refinance the house every few years and pull out your "dead" equity
Put the extracted equity into the stock market which seems to be making about 60% returns per year now that the crisis is over.
sell the house in 40 years for $3M.
I agree with you that this strategy wouldn't work in 2007-2009 during the Great Recession, but we're back to normal now. And not a second too soon IMO.
Rajesh wrote:
I don't disagree. The problem with that is many of the voters have a vested interest in maintaining the status quo. I look at what is happening to Gov Patterson in NY - he has spoken openly about the need to gasp cut spending and in turn his own party has thrown him under the bus. Nothing will change until an outside influence forces change - in this case that outside influence will be a dearth of foreign buyers of our debt.
km4 wrote:
Just imagine... over a 50 year career, that's $40-60,000 annually that you have to come up with from somewhere.
It's the same situation with everything Obama inherited, the status quo was looking down the barrel of instant unemployment if he stopped deployments, and the show must go on...
YouTube - Entry Of The Gladiators - Julius Fucik
Comrade Kristina wrote:
Just to put number on it: Median income 2007 (from wikipedia) = $50K, times 40years = $2M.
Yearning to Learn wrote:
Well, the strategy you outline has worked well for millions of people in the more bubbly RE areas in the US and around the world over the last 5, 10, and 30 years.
But it hasn't worked quite so well for those who lived in the Midwest and Texas and other areas that missed most of the RE bubble.
It is also unsustainable, as we first saw clearly in the last 2 years. Govt money patched over the hole in the logic for the present, and might be able to keep the dream alive for another 5-10 years, but eventually people will have to confront the reality that getting paid enough to retire on, in return for sitting on a couch in a big expensive home, isn't an economic model that can work for all the people all of the time.
Edit: I did realize you were being sarcastic, but I couldn't resist commenting.
Maury the Credit Responsibility Panda wrote:
You missed the implied sales pitch: You will never come up with that number unless you give large sums of money to us, and we will (through the magic of compounding) make it into a be-YU-tiful nest egg for you.
Good point JP, I should have said the majority, not the average
The majority make much less than 50K per year. My husband and I both work full time and made less than that together last year.
So all you have to do is go without a roof, clothes, food, or transportation for 40 years, and you're good to go. Makes perfect sense.
Believe it or not: I really did mean median, so half make less than 50K and half make more.
(also note that the number in wikipedia was 2007. It has probably dropped since then?)
Private charity will take care of all of those AB...
km4 wrote:
These 'detached from reality' investment advisers are talking to much less than 1% of Americans
'Retirement' has existed for a long time, it's just that it formerly was only applicable to a very small percentage of the population with enough put away that they could afford to live comfortably from the lower, minimal-risk returns provided purely through passive income. Now we have been sold the idea that everyone can be a Lord of the FIRE.
The last numbers I saw were 50% make 32K or less per year JP. Grrrrr now I have to go on a fact finding mission...I forget what year that data was for. Maybe I saved the link...
(sigh). Haven't you seen? All the people in flyover land are moving to the sunbelt and other bubble areas anyway. Thus, problem solved.
That's WHY we have bubbles in the bubble areas: Everybody wants to live there (trademark).
It is a mathematical fact that eventually everybody will live in California, Nevada, Arizona, and Florida. Eventually.
If you find that your annual house appreciation is less than 10% per year forever, then clearly you are living in the wrong place. You should move as soon as possible to a place where housing goes up 10%/year forever, otherwise you are a whiner.
Must I think of everything around here?
For those keeping track, It appears they have the votes. Stupak 8 at the WH Now. Puts the number at 222.
We spend too much money foolish fighting wars and building useless armaments. If that stopped, we could return to balanced budgets. Doesn't Allen always ask when the war will be over? Ike knew the answer 60 years ago.
re: GSEs Green Light $200bn Buyout of Seriously Delinquent Mortgages « HousingWire
patientrenter, I'm deeply confused about this buyout ...
I think this means the investors don't lose their investment even though these mortgages would be (have been?) written off.
But what has happened to the people in the houses? They may or may not still be there? I guess the GSE will service or hold this paper now, in perpetuity, or sell it deeply discounted later.
Is this what we're doing with the future of this country? Just unloading the amount it took to get humans on the moon in a few months to indemnify losses for some investors (GS or foreign banks perhaps?)
I admit: It seems higher than I remember. (Perhaps I have quoted household vs remembering personal?)
Comrade Kristina wrote:
The last numbers I saw were 50% make 32K or less per year JP
That's individual personal income, I'd suspect. Another lovely cover-up of economic reality is the way figures for individual personal income and family income are used almost interchangeably when they are actually very different numbers.
Comrade Kristina wrote:
And this is all coming from a BAU perspective, which is like the Austrians in 1913 arguing who their next Hapsburg ruler is going to be.
Anyone looked around lately?
50 K sounds like family income JP.
Publisher's Clearing house "America's Retirement Plan!"
Yes, and others pointed it out too. That'll teach me to be careful with the numbers.
A quick graph: http://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2009/9/13/saupload_us_census_burea_median_income.png
Comrade Kristina wrote:
That's my recollection: median family income.
Per capita median income, per the CIA World Factbook, I am recalling at ~$42K.
Mel wrote:
And what would we do then if the people who owned those resources we need actually said we couldn't have them?
Can't do without an army to enforce and obtain resources.
Analogous to how the gumbit calculates CPI i.e. if you don't eat and drive there's not really that much inflation so you're OK
km4 wrote:
The goal I set for myself in 1991 was $1.25 million. Looks like that may not be enough, and it may be impossible to hit my original target now given the last few years.
The thing is, the money will have lost so much value in 40 years, a million will be a moot point by the time you get there.
A friend had an L.A. Times from the day after RFK's assasination in 1968, a full copy.
I went to the classified ads section, and the most expensive home listed was in tony Bel Air for $125k.
That makes us Hessians--only a short term remedy.
Yearning to Learn wrote:
You should move as soon as possible to a place where housing goes up 10%/year forever, otherwise you are a whiner.
Like, duh... If there is less money at A than at B you move to B. Or you could just change careers and become a neurosurgeon, and if that doesn't work out, maybe you can change again and be a microcode engineer. Maybe an NBA player.
actually, I made a mistake in my last post.
as I said above, PART of a successful retirement is buying an FHA home with a 3% down payment (paid for by the First time Homebuyer Credit) and selling said home for $3M in 40 years.
as patientrenter so eloquently states out: this doesn't work for the losers in the flyover land.
BUT AS ALWAYS I HAVE A SOLUTION:
as I said above, the SECOND leg of YTL's retirement stool is the equities market.
In the last year the stock market went up 60% year based on sound fundamentals.
Clearly, the stock market can't go up 60% per year forever,so I'll be conservative and say that it goes up 20% per pear forever.
If it does this, then the average joe will need to sock away just $3,000/year at 20% per year over 40 years, and they will have
$18.3M in retirement savings in 40 years.
excellent. AND with conservative estimates too.
(full disclosure: I used a retirement calculator and it wouldn't let me put in 60% per year forever, but it would let me put in 20% per year forever. That's why I used 20% per year forever. If a calculator will let me do it, then CLEARLY it is possible).
So
Leg of stool 1: $3-4 M from your primary residence
Leg of stool 2: $18.3M from equities.
problem solved again.
NervousRex wrote:
Rex, these MBS were already guaranteed by the GSEs, so the investors already had the right to get their principal back. What's significant is that:
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
Perry Mason (eyebrows working) was always talking about . . . "One Hundred Thousand Dollars."
Since then, a solid history of saver theft, and worker theft. Two oars of the same boat.
And the workers and savers are fighting each other over, what, who pays for grampa's dentures?
A moment to savor is when SS sends me a summary of the payroll taxes I paid in over the years. Teenage gas pumping during the nixonian reign is in there, so assiduous are they.
Yup gotta keep that illusion of American Dream alive....
And don't listen to Elizabeth Warren who says she's afraid of what the future holds for the economic well-being of almost all Americans.
Like I've been say....
but the elites will keep on selling that illusive American Dream to the unwashed masses probably until there's a revolution !
There is no way that I am going to fall for asking about your third leg.
Yearning to Learn wrote:
I used a retirement calculator and it wouldn't let me put in 60% per year forever, but it would let me put in 20% per year forever.
That is a totally reasonable assumption I think, and solidly supported by at least eight months of historical data. Would you like to come and work for our firm? We sell mostly to government pension funds.
Death and his Brother Sleep (‘Morphine’)
Wow! There is a poem to brighten one's day.
...way back when, a Hundred-Grand Bar wasn't the cost of going to law school
A moment to savor is when SS sends me a summary of the payroll taxes I paid in over the years. Teenage gas pumping during the nixonian reign is in there, so assiduous are they.
$1-3 MM is not out of the question at all. It does depend on what you call retired. Never lift a finger and live off of accumulation or cash flow investing with management.
CK,
Kind of back ups when I said most Americans don't work smart or hard enough. Safety net failure in reverse.
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
Quick, repeat after me, "Inflation is not a problem". Chant that a thousand times, every hour. Gotta clear out those bad thoughts! Better yet, just quit thinking.
on a side (and more serious note)
although my last few posts are clearly snark, it is disheartening to me how many people believed exactly those types of ridiculous numbers. Even now after 10 years of minimal S&P growth and 3 years of massive RE pain I STILL see people using retirement calculators and using 8% returns on equities and 7-10% returns on housing.
given demographic shifts it is not implausible that we will have decade(s) of minimal S&P growth and decade(s) of stagnant home prices (in real terms of course, nominal is anybody's guess).
the problem, as always, is that we live in such a way as to use our materials unsustainably. If we were to ever go back to 2006 again we would see immediate runups in all commodities (steel, lumber, oil, you name it).
in the end, we cannot afford the medical care we receive, we cannot afford the size of the homes in which we live, we cannot afford the things that surround us.
debt allowed us to pretend for some time. but it's harder and harder to maintain the facade.
nonetheless, everyone is trying extra hard to see the emperor's clothes, and get us back to "normal" (which was 2006 of course)
Lobbyist Ben Dover wrote:
Net of expenses, taxes, and inflation, what do you think is the achievable long term rate of return on investment, averaged across all US savers?
$125k wouldn't buy you a shack in Pacoima, nowadays.
patientrenter wrote:
1 to 3%
Yearning to Learn wrote:
Carp Fishing on Valium.
I was just pleased that I got to use the word "stool" so many times!
hehe hehe hehe. I said "stool".
on a side note: since you asked in a non-asking way, my third leg is my biggest commodity! (pun intended, ba-da-bing).
YTL, are you self-medicating?
Yearning to Learn wrote:
Which is why we should all pay William Sharp's newly public company to perform monte carlo sims of our retirement plans.
:eyeroll:
Fools rush in where Angels fear to tread:
"The stool has a third leg?"
Yeah, it's like an obituary of your working years and how you performed.
patientrenter wrote:
Rather open ended question as to what ones standards are. Two with no debt would have a reasonable time around $50-75K a year. Depends where you live and your wants. I made money in very high wages and chunks in investments. Mostly RE and business. Still do. Again variable. Save 20% of you gross income including benefits and you will do well.
Out for a nice day.
adornosghost wrote:
is legal.
Carp Fishing on Valium.
Damn you, that was my retirement plan.
I can't wait to see the shape we're in when 70% of the nation is on antidepressants and
And don't forget, JD, it's an entitlement.
March 21 (Bloomberg) -- House Democrats have more than enough votes to pass health-care overhaul legislation today, House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer, a Maryland
And so it goes. Yet another distraction, yet another wedge.
How are we going to pay for it? Quick! Set up your webpage, get your 800 number, Begin the "How to navigate the health care red tape" career field ver 3.5
How are we going to pay for it echoes down the empty hallway. Why we have to will be argued long after it is a done deal.
We passed feel good legislation while the house is on fire. No pain has been felt yet. It is getting unexpectedly warm.
YtL,are you on my city council?
Comrade Kristina wrote:
nor is there a stool.
Oh, possibly, but rest assured there is stool.
Anak,
I pumped gas for a living around that same time period. I look at my SS statement and wonder how the hell I did it. Being young is the only answer I can come up with.
nova wrote:
The gas I pumped was $0.35 per gallon on a good day.
And I'd open anybody's radiator, check the oil, pressure, and of course, all the windows!
Resistance is Feudal wrote:
Like, duh... If there is less money at A than at B you move to B. Or you could just change careers and become a neurosurgeon, and if that doesn't work out, maybe you can change again and be a microcode engineer. Maybe an NBA player.
and then:
That is a totally reasonable assumption I think, and solidly supported by at least eight months of historical data. Would you like to come and work for our firm? We sell mostly to government pension funds.
RiF:
I am sorry, but I cannot work for your firm right away. I will soon be tapped to be the next "Recovery Czar" where I will be in charge of recovery. I may also have some oversight and regulatory responsibilities for the big Wall Street Firms depending on whether or not "Consumer Protection" is considered to be a part of recovery or not. A person of my knowledge and integrity is needed to restore confidence in the marketplace.
I will work there for a month or two, until recovery is completely assured. I will then go and work for the private sector.
Although I cannot work for you right now, I could be convinced to be a board member or take on some advisory role in your company.
Bidding on my services will commence immediately. May I remind you, that I have Summers/Geithners/Obama's ears, and yes I do take American Express?
on a side note, I like the cut of your jib. Perhaps you should come and work for me instead, together we could be quite formidable.
like titley, dude.
gotta have some humor sometime!
Perhaps renewed interest in commune living like back in late 1960's early 1970's since real estate will be kaput
renewed interest in Billy Jack movies
I'd like to think if you got enough able bodied folks humping to please we could work our way out of this thing.
Then some smart ass comes along and does the math.
km4 wrote:
Good morning.
Commune living is alive and well with an increase in room mates, multigenerational household living.
Anak,craigslist stopped their erotic services ads months ago,so that plan is out.
Mike in Long Island wrote:
For an economy in a steady state, with around 1% population growth and around 1% productivity growth, I tend to agree. And if people did their retirement calculations using 1-3%, everyone would see very quickly how much they can really afford to spend, how much they really need to earn, how much they can really afford to pay in taxes, and how early they can really retire. It would be shocking, as we can see from the incredulity several people have already expressed here, and would lead to major and positive behavioral changes. Of course, that will never happen.
We are not in a steady state. As the baby boomers have grown into their peak earning years, the demand for investments has gone above steady state levels, increasing their prices above their steady state level. That's why P/E ratios are much higher now than in comparable periods of the business cycle back in the mid-1980's and earlier in our history. As the baby boomers age further, the proportion of people who are retired will grow, and this will necessarily lower the returns on their investments as they start to cash out in ever greater numbers in order to pay their medical and other bills . Since the market value of these investments will then be below their steady state level, the true net real returns on US investments over the next 20-30 years could be well below 1-3%, perhaps by a substantial amount.
The long article linked below is about journalism, but it overlaps with the financial crisis in interesting ways. Note that, after Party A successfully sued Party B, Party B's parent company got involved, along with the bank that funded the parent company's takeover of various newspapers. Now that the Great Unwind is here, it's very hard to get a bank to let go of $16 million --- even when they were legally ordered to do so.
The Great West Coast Newspaper War - Features - The Stranger, Seattle's Only Newspaper
anak,
You were good! I checked the oil and did the windshield. Amazing how many people, especially woman, drove around with out oil back then.
Yearning to Learn wrote:
+
= 
Bidding on my services will commence immediately. May I remind you, that I have Summers/Geithners/Obama's ears, and yes I do take American Express?
Sadly, we're both probably going to be aped in comedic value by what actually happens out there...
Ahhhh fond memories. I worked after school (grade school) in the bookstore where my mom worked. I wrapped packages and took them to the Post Office down the street. It was the first time I was made responsible for handling OPM. Can't remember if I was paid or not.
First real job as a carpenter's apprentice paid $11.00/day take-home, not included was the 1.5 hour commute each way.
Hmm AB, my hubby is making 14 an hour now as a fourth year electricians apprentice (one year from journeyman). That's inflationary, right?
Wow, AB was labor elite right from the start. :]
Yearning to Learn wrote:
Sorry, I already have 535 people I can use for that, and their pay scales and ability to produce, er, 'results', are well established.
CK, his was a day...not per hour.
Communes are a good idea. I mean, you have to replace capitalism with something.
Well sir, the Humping to Please thing could be seen on any major thoroughfare in the central USA, well, a long time ago.
Now we only see it in models of the real thing:
Campbell '66' Express
For a second there, I thought I had just dreamed it up?
Hawley Smoot wrote:
Communes are a good idea. I mean, you have to replace capitalism with something.
Communes sound like a great idea until you actually factor real humans and our egos and pettiness into the equation.
Oh lol nova, just saw that. How old are you AB? Sounds like my Dad's stories of wages. Of course he had to walk uphill both directions to get there
my wifes company advertised for a skilled position this month. they cut it off when they had a pool of 600 people that matched the basic criteria.
I'm off to stimulate the economy. Need chlorine for the pool, work boots for hubby and some groceries. More like "teasing" the economy now that I think about it.
nova wrote:
they cut it off when they had a pool of 600 people that matched the basic criteria.
Just think of the wages they can offer with that many competitors! See, depression and high unemployment means very good times for some people! Ironically, it's mostly those whose irresponsibility and greed resulted in the depression and high unemployment.
anak! you were working for the squid!
OT: I knew someone was going to make this mistake eventually:
Large Hardon Collider on Flickr - Photo Sharing!
nova wrote:
No such thing. I have been stir frying squid since I learned to locate their cuttle.
There's more though, right CK? Vaca, annuity, retirement acc?
Depending on whom I'm speaking to, (snotty or not snotty,) I quote "the envelop" or "the whole package." I love the look on snotty faces when I quote the whole package.
No hills here. but a bus ride to get to the boss's house to ride a long way out into the hinterlands to put up the first of a sea of developments.
(58)
...into the valley of debt rode the 600
anak, the ad for Campbells has a squid in the design. A prototype?
patientrenter wrote:
Sadly I must agree. I was trying to be optimistic. My retirement plan more and more is looking like trying to find a country with currency worth much less than the dollar and move there...
But that won't be for another 20 yrs or so - so its not much of a plan at this point. At a minimum it will be someplace that I don't need heat in the winter to avoid freezing to death.
So will the market react positively to the health care bill making it through the house?
nova... a book you should read... SLANT by Greg Bear. You'll love it.
nova wrote:
Grant you looks like a cephlapod, but I think its supposed to be a dromedary!
AB - thanks. I will put it on my wish list.
later :doomers: off to lunch.
Republican Canon to right of them,
Democrat Canon to left of them,
Progressive Canon in front of them
Volley'd and thunder'd;
Storm'd at with taxes and health care,
Boldly they rode and well,
Into the jaws of Debt,
Into the mouth of who knows where
Rode the three hundred million.
anak, that would make sense except for all the arms.
My wife just informed me that I have to go fix the FIL's computer. Arrggghh....
1 currency now -yogi (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Sun, 3/21/2010 - 5:20 am On a planet with a shrinking number of fiat currencies, a devaluation in one pretty much equals an appreciation in another.
Unless you have a single reserve currency. This allows surplus nations to devalue vs. the reserve currency and will allow China to succumb to the pressure from Obama, Geithner, Krugman and CR and de-peg. But, the de-peg will be followed by a devaluation of the yuan. The US has had 60 years of positives by having the world's reserve currency, time for some negatives.
Campbell's is making
soup?
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
into the valley of the shadow debt rode the 600
My wife woke up this morning, rolled over and asked, "If we had two million dollars, could we stop working?"
I thought about it: her, early sixties; me, middle fifties. No good ROI on anything out there that isn't speculation, everything priced wrong, having to pick up our own insurance, possibility of catastrophic medical bills. And I said, "no."
As to why she asked, she suspects she has psychic powers. Every woman I've ever been with did, I must attract them. She dreamed there were couple of mllion out there that belonged to us that we didn't know about. Since she has a 90-year-old father who's well-off and who she hasn't spoken to in 25 years -- and who couldn't find us if he tried -- I'm thinking it's more regret that psychic powers.
Mike in Long Island wrote:
Don't you want a currency worth much more than the US dollar. Didn't you mention Lords of FIRE upthread?
Are those salt and pepper layer cut, wind tossed retirees, grinning vigorously with preternaturally white teeth as they walk hand in hand down the beach not Lord Like enough?
Contact your financial planner at once! It's never too late to plan for a secure retirement!
Bob Dobbs wrote:
different than a real
??
As to why she asked, she suspects she has psychic powers. Every woman I've ever been with did, I must attract them.
This begs the question -- is a dreamed
And I'm off to refill the coffers of the MIC, EIC, CJIC, and the FEIC. I know that's a lot to ask of a load of cat food, but hey, one has to do one's part, right.
Maury the Credit Responsibility Panda wrote:
But that's only $3500 to $5000 per month. The average American can save that much, right?
Most western world retirement systems are pay-as-you-go and dependent on continuous average yearly 1-2 percent GDP growth. Throw a 20 percent GDP collapse
into to the system plus 20 percent unemployment rate and retired boomers will be growing their own food and buy maybe even whopping three potatoes with the monthly retirement check...
Anak wrote:
It's never too late to plan for a secure retirement!
1970-2010: Plan for a secure retirement
2010-2020: Plan to secure a retirement
2020-2030: Retire to a secure plantation
"This begs the question -- is a dreamed Nothingburger different than a real Nothingburger?? "
Depends on how zen you are.
Bob Dobbs wrote:
Depends on how zen you are.
And how hungry...
ResistanceIsFeudal wrote:
You don't get a bill with the former.
RiF,I would probably be making mint juleps and playing the banjo for oprah's kids if I could find a secure plantation.
To increase the savings rate, banks will need to offer toasters (again):

Benj. Franklin Savings and Loan - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Residents of Oregon and Washington will remember[by whom?] TV commercials featuring Bob Hazen, President, a short fellow with a high voice, hawking toasters and other free gifts to woo new depositors, and pitching their other products and services. Bog Hazen is credited with inventing the thrift marketing phrase: "Pay Yourself First."
ResistanceIsFeudal wrote:
Our house has hubby & I, female roommate with 8yr old son and a friend here for several weeks while this house is fixed due to a major flood. Mini-commune.
We also have a friend (50+ male) who may want to move in.
Tom Stone wrote:
RiF,I would probably be making mint juleps and playing the banjo for oprah's kids if I could find a secure plantation.
Not a bad plan. Of course the unstated assumption is that some will own the plantation they retire to, while others... not so much.
josap wrote:
Our house has hubby & I, female roommate with 8yr old son and a friend here for several weeks while this house is fixed due to a major flood. Mini-commune.
I have no doubt it can be made to work. I also have little doubt that it will never constitute the majority of living arrangements even when it would otherwise be forced economically.
You guys kill.
josap wrote:
People will do what they have to do. Somebody (Mary Ann?) posted last night about her county of 20K where there's no real economy left except gov't and healthcare; households already doubled and tripled up, doctors completing for the business of the few people who have insurance (mainly gov't), etc. etc. It might be nasty; but if it has to happen, it will.
ResistanceIsFeudal wrote:
And I doubt your reasoning has to do with lack of need.... so what is it?
Re: "the need for rebalancing the world economy"
That seems to be an insult directed at Wal-mart and thus the hope that The People's Republic of China will stay out of the new global capitalist order.... need
My
for today.
Elderly, ill friend of roommates had to move to assited living. The people she was staying with after being unable to live alone have refused to give her - her belongings. Those include clothes, wheel chair, walker and oxegen tanks.
Five male friends and two female just left our house to meet the cops to repatriate her belongings. This is not acceptable or allowed in my group of friends. So we do what we need to do to fix it. None of us, other than our roommate, have ever met this lady.
josap wrote:
That is a
I could see that outlook happening group by group, based on nothing more than human decency.
Progress comes like this. Probably not enough to help everybody, but it happens every day.
Anak wrote:
Progress comes like this. Probably not enough to help everybody
Human decency is uneconomical. Luckily so are people.
That's the party apparatus, not the public, not voters. In OR, a tax increase was passed. The question in OR remains (in my mind anyway) is if the additional revenue will be used for what I think of as "community" purposes, schools, basic services, infrastructure maintenance and/or repair, & I also classify mass transit in this category (know others may disagree).
I think that many voters---as opposed to party apparachniks, those who control the media, & a minority of voters--would agree to some tax increases if: (1) they aren't regressive; (2) they are dedicated to specific purposes. For example, some of the polls indicate that a majority of those polled wanted reform of the way health care is provided in the US--but often the options people favor, single payer, very broad public option, expanded Medicare with Medicare empowered to negotiate w/Big Pharma to decrease medication costs (as the VA does), are not even considered by most of our current representatives.
We really do need campaign finance reform. Plus overturning, via constitutional amendment or Congressional action (not likely) the US S.Ct decision that corporations are "persons".
Comrade Kristina wrote:
I have been working on this (Medicare for All) for the last 8 months. It is so hard to get people to realize the extent to which insurance company profits are killing healthcare. Of course, it makes it easier for the health insurance cos. when Congress is in their pocket.
Don't move an inch Kristina! Unless it is to go to Firedoglake, which is much better than Daily Kos.