"As mentioned above, the difference is the NY Fed announces the purchases when they contract to buy; the Federal Reserve places the MBS on the balance sheet when the contract settles. "

There have also been paydowns over time.

The paydowns are big, btw, we are going to go from currency debasement to currency withdrawal in an instant.

...right after temporary US occupation forces withdraw from Germany and Japan.

That graph looks a lot like the S&P 500, just smoother. A lot of sweat and hard work went into that 1.25 trillion the Fed spent.

O's poll numbers finally crossed today.

Real Clear Politics takes the average of 6 polls.

Approve - 47.3%
Disapprove - 47.8%

RealClearPolitics - Election Other - President Obama Job Approval

montas ankle wrote:

you were right, I was wrong.

we need a poll, 10 year to fnclmtge spread, April 30th, assuming Fed stays out of the MBS market until that time, 10bps increments, I bet 150.

Rob Dawg wrote:

whiffs of stale the exits won't accommodate

Would you please expound on this? As long as the currency created remains locked up in worthless paper and the masses dont get to spend it, how could we get to hyperinflation? UE benefits are not enough per person to let the masses overconsume...

black dog wrote:

When QE ends the US Treasury 'only' needs to find a home for TWO TRILLION in new issuance (never mind keeping the 2.75 trillion in rollovers happy) this year.

---What could go wrong?

Wildly OT:

Tom Stone<

Any good fungi finds lately?

Nice work on the poll, Dawg.

Boom!

BFF Poll for Fri. March 19th 2010 | Hoocoodanode?

ShadowInventory wrote:

As long as the currency created remains locked up in worthless paper and the masses dont get to spend it, how could we get to hyperinflation?

I didn't say hyperinflation. Thing is borders aren't what they used to be. Electronic funds transfers are going to mean tens of billions in a currency event. Retail money is not going to be on the winning side no matter how hard they try.

JP wrote:

There's a company named BJ Services

Pretty big oilfield services outfit... (badump!)

Rob Dawg wrote:

Thing is borders aren't what they used to be. Electronic funds transfers are going to mean tens of billions in a currency event.

Money never sleeps.
Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps - Movie Trailers - iTunes

Please excuse my ingnorance as a lay person trying to make sense of the situation, but where does the Fed get the money to buy these MBS?

DWhite wrote:

Please excuse my ingnorance as a lay person trying to make sense of the situation, but where does the Fed get the money to buy these MBS?

From your children. They don't exactly print it, they just wish it into existence. They are the Fed.

Mr Slippery wrote:

but sometimes they use it to purchase assets like Treasury bills/notes/bonds, or MBS

Which is not monetization, 'cause they're not doing that...really...just ask them.

Felix Salmon has weighed-in on Abelson's interview of the Lehman executives who said "so what" to Repo 105s and $50 billion.

Felix calls them "psychopaths," so he and I seem to agree.

They are beyond laws and regulations. These sonsabitches should be dealt with.

Repo 105: “Like, whatever” | Analysis & Opinion | Reuters

o keep inflation in check and maximize unemployment.

'maximize unemployment.'
well they've got that part down.

I voted +150.

7 1/2%.

Thanks gnomester.

I did for the ---not!!

JP wrote:

The Fed pressed a button, and now there's $2.25T in circulation, with 1.25T of that going to purchase MBS.

Pretty much. I think officially they "credit" the account of the bank who sold them the MBS, but effectively that "credit" is created out of thin air. Money printing basically without the printer.

Agreed shadow.

Wildly OT:

World Champion Cheese Contest: Contest Results

sporkfed wrote:

Is there another imported commodity

There is a commodity etf symbol GSG which represents a basket of commodities allocated according to the share of global consumption... it's a good anti-inflation hedge... maybe... YMMV.

sm_landlord wrote:

From your children. They don't exactly print it, they just wish it into existence. They are the Fed.

Stop trying to scare the newbies...

Banks create money when they make a loan. For example I can log into my bank and move $100,000 dollars from my HELOC to my checking account. With a couple of clicks I created $100,000 dollars of new money and not a single person at my bank had to scrounge under the cushions for nickles or even lift a finger.

At the end of the day the Banker sees that's he's got $100,000 dollars of new assets on his books (my new loan) and $100,000 dollars in new liabilities (the money in my checking account). For that privilege I have to pay the banker $3,000 dollars per year. The banker is required by regulators to have $8,000 dollars in capital against my loan.

At the end of the day the Federal Reserve is just another bank. The only thing that makes it special is that it doesn't have any capital constraints (it can create as much money as it wants) and it runs the Governments checking account.

ghostfaceinvestah wrote:

copper is pretty good

There used to be a saying on Wall Street - "Every bull market has a copper bottom"....

Thanks. I'm trying to figure out if inflation will show up in commodities in spite of the employment situation. Can oil stay elevated
with high unemployment ? A graph showing the dollar strength, oil prices, and the unemployment rate over the last 40 years might help.

sporkfed wrote:

inflation will show up in commodities in spite of the employment situation

There is global creation of currency and the global population is still growing. The supply of commodities is still growing too, but eventually that should slow up - however technology adds to supply also (i.e. genetically engineered crops) so we dont really know if we will hit the wall on supply or not... Higher prices normally spurs more production, which then brings prices down... Really the only way to get commodity inflation in the short term is if a large mass of people get their hands on a lot more money quickly... Since most of the money creation lately is still sitting in the financial institutions, there has not been a lot of commodity inflation. Handing out small amounts such as stimulus checks and UE checks does not have enough impact to create any inflation... Nevertheless, you need to buy low and sell high, so it is prudent to keep a small percentage of your total portfolio in commodities... then if you see inflation starting to heat up you can always increase your allocation ... I have about 5% in DBA, DBC and GSG...

HomeGnome wrote:

Seek professional help.

Ha!!! Are you really my wife???

Well I suppose I could do a poll - but doesnt anyone have an opinion on KFT - buy, sell, or hold?

Kind of slow today. CRVIX down. I feel like I'm waiting for something.

HomeGnome wrote:

Ingredients: WHEY, CANOLA OIL, MILK,

Hmmm - I dont see water on the list - they probably freeze the whey and milk in order to make the emulsion with the canola oil... Cheez Whiz - an All American Product that contains some Actual Real Cheese!!

Winston wrote:

Easy Cheese

I had a girlfriend like that once - I think she is dating Broward now....

No tetraethyl lead? must be diet food.

It's basically the stuff left over from making real cheese making, thickening agents and oil. Very much like the lowest rung of "American Processed Cheese Product"

Happy Hour time - be back later - hope to get some opinions on KFT... thanks

I use the word squirt loosely . . . . . . . . .

Hey, I'm not above cheese in a can!
I'm a member of the actual middle class, so I can't afford brie every day like some of my friends who only think they're middle class.

Rotel on a hamburger served open faced on a toasted bun with jalapenos . Delicious.,

If you like it really hot, use the Habanero Rotel. It is really yummy but smoking hot.

So Bloomberg had a report that stocks are down because of a rumour the Fed was going to raise the discount rate, based on the fact that they last raised the discount rate on an 18th.

HomeGnome's cheese suggestions:

Humboldt Fog® | Cypress Grove Chevre
Shropshire Blue Cheese

never heard of rotel.

Rotel is canned diced tomatoes and chile peppers. The classic Rotel dip is a half a brick of Velveeta cheese melted with one can of Rotel. I don't make it often because I'll eat it all.

July 1 will be Bring Your Gun to Work Day in the great State of Indiana.
Daniels signs bill protecting guns at work » Evansville Courier & Press

Comrade Kristina wrote:

The classic Rotel dip is a half a brick of Velveeta cheese melted with one can of Rotel

---We call that "Cheesus Christ" around here, CK>

uh-oh.I suspect any thing that calls itself handcrafted.

In preparation for the end of the FED MBS program.

YouTube - Europe - The Final Countdown (Live) 

lawyerliz wrote:

right now woyuld like sme baked brie with loiys of toasted almonds and granny SMith apples Not a sin

---The freaking netbooks suck, don't they?
Damn keyboard is too small.

and I don't expect any fireworks

CR, sure one heckuva countdown for what you believe is a big .

China is facing heavy competition for low-skill-produced products from other Asian as well as mid-east, Carribean and Central American countries. A stronger yuan will put many of its citizens out of work and empty some factories.

Obama’s Job Disapproval Rating Tops Approval: Chart of the Day - Bloomberg.com

What is not working anymore and more Americans know the and 18 other too greedy to fail banks were given carte blanche.

Poll: Boxer Suddenly In Trouble - Hotline On Call

Field poll has Boxer behind for the first time.

"I could have put your name against Boxer, and you'd have gotten half the votes," Field Poll dir. Mark DiCamillo told a McClatchy reporter. "It's really not about the candidates themselves."

I'm down two games on my bracket so far.
How's everyone else doing?

It's a good thing bubble Ben, er uh, the FED has been on the ball, transparent, honest and trustworthy.

On the topic of the MBS purchases, does anyone really believe these were a net-net positive for Main Street? I sure don't.

Without these purchases, we would most likely have a market dominated by the FHA, at mortgage rates not much higher than they are today. You see, there is a market for FHA/Ginnie Mae MBS, with its full faith and credit. Note the Fed is buying almost none of these.

And without the 1.25T in money printing, I can't help but believe oil prices would be much lower than they are today, probably in the $50 barrel range.

So are we better off with Fannie/Freddie/FHA mortgages being at 5%, and gas at $3 a gallon, or would we be better off with FHA mortgages only at 5.5% (and Fannie/Freddie mortgages not even in the ballpark, maybe at 6.5%), and gas at say $2.25 a gallon (and other global commodities much lower as well)?

I think we would be better off with the latter.

Oxtail wrote:

Field poll has Boxer behind for the first time.

On the morning of the Ben vote, Boxer sent out emails 'voting against' and then in the pm voted 'for re-instating'! Her desperation signs were apparent then, I suppose.

Speed wrote:

It's the anti-incumbent sentiment - politicians should be nervous. Maybe they should listen to their constituency and start arresting the criminals on Wall Street.

The WH is in bed with the looters, that sentiment has (correctly)taken solid root, and no bill is going to change that.

Selective hearing.

MILK (not scary), WATER (again, not scary), WHEY PROTEIN CONCENTRATE (made by skimming off the liquid from cheese making and removing some of the water, WHEY (liquid left over from cheese making - not scary), CANOLA OIL (not scary), MILK PROTEIN CONCENTRATE (no scarier than evaporated milk), SALT (not scary), SODIUM CITRATE (also called sour salt - it acts as a preservative, flavoring and acidity regulator - common enough and not scary), SODIUM PHOSPHATE (moderately scary and not really good for you), CALCIUM PHOSPHATE (a component of many baking powders - not scary), LACTIC ACID (pretty common as a natural part of fermented milk products - presumably acting as a preservative and flavoring), SORBIC ACID (a preservative and sweetener - bit scary), SODIUM ALGINATE (gelling agent - very food sciency, but not bad), APOCAROTENAL (a form of vitamin A - kinda scary), ANNATTO (a red seed - not scary), CHEESE CULTURES, ENZYMES (you're eating cheese, so that goes with the territory).

true, not scary, but not goo0d quality food either. and yes the keyboard is awful.

Speed wrote:

Vice Commerce Minister Zhong Shan, in an exclusive interview Thursday ahead of a visit to the U.S., said that the profit margin on many Chinese export goods was less than 2%.

China won't let it.

NYT ran an article on that some weeks earlier; it is true that the margins for the Chinese are abysmal!

With 25% tariff, as PK suggests, that would force them to find buyers in China, I suppose.

ghostfaceinvestah wrote:

So are we better off with Fannie/Freddie/FHA mortgages being at 5%, and gas at $3 a gallon, or would we be better off with FHA mortgages only at 5.5% (and Fannie/Freddie mortgages not even in the ballpark, maybe at 6.5%), and gas at say $2.25 a gallon (and other global commodities much lower as well)?

Too late to do anything about it. The money is out there, pumped into stocks and commodities. Meanwhile, Fannie/Freddie continue to bleed out of every orifice of their portfolios, covered for unlimited losses by the US Treasury for the next 3 years. The image I get is a bathtub with the water running full speed, the drain open and cracks in the bottom. Oh, and soon the Fed will turn off the water.

I have an ad for a muslim marriage service,which seems odd since I am a third generation Vedantan (Gramma thought the swami was cute,or something).

smoot hawley.

and besides citi must be destroyed

Yalt<

You expect me to believe that you picked Murray St. over Vanderbilt?
Seriously?

lawyerliz wrote:

Oh. baSKETBALL

---Oh, gambling.

Utterly O/T to LL:

I'm just 3 weeks shy of the 1st anniversary of my broken femur (skiing -- broke it in half). Been thinking about you -- my one suggestion (aside from rest and don't skimp on the painkillers while it hurts) is to get to physical therapy as soon as you possibly can. I did 4 months 2x per week and continue to hit the gym 3-4x per week -- still haven't recovered the strength and stamina from 10 weeks of sedentary living.

All the best and get well soon. Oh, and FWIW -- my bill (surgery + 6 days in the hospital + the therapy) was well north of $40k.

YouTube - Olivia Newton-John - Physical

Rajesh wrote:

Just put on a 5% national sales tax, and the Chinese trade problem will go away.

No it won't. Because even if we move manufacturing back to the US, we'd have to import even more oil to do it with. Now if you were to be more impartial and tax carbon imports, (including the manufacturing carbon cost of things like HDTV's, you might have something.

Winston wrote:

Rotel with Velveta is awesome. It's even better if you add cumin to give it more of a nacho cheese flavor.

Eek. You kidding me?!?