Comparing New Home Sales and Housing Starts
Submitted by
CalculatedRisk on Wed, 03/17/2010 - 5:29pm (137 comments)
Shopping at Amazon?
Wait! If you click on the Amazon banner link at the top of the page first, HCN will get a percentage of anything you purchase for 24 hours!
Open predictions
Our local book authors
User login
Who's online
There are currently 4 members and 145 guests online.
Currently online
Recent Recommendations
Down. Good down.
MMMMM Chart Porn...CR never disappoints.
I 'Spec I'm not going to be in the market for any home, new or otherwise - after all I am the unknown but massive - ShadowInventory....
nova wrote:
My father, towards the end, would fall asleep in his recliner and recite names. I asked my Mom about it. It was all the members of his platoon who had died. He had nightmares until he died. I remember him telling me about how he and a friend were running and he looked over. His friend was missing his head.
I think the one that bothered him the most was shooting a sniper out of a tower, When they checked the body it was a German girl. He was still going to the VA up until he died. 3 Purple hearts will do that to you.
----[To young Butch] Hello, little man. Boy, I sure heard a bunch about you. See, I was a good friend of your dad's. We were in that Hanoi pit of hell together for over five years. Hopefully, you'll never have to experience this yourself, but when two men are in a situation like me and your dad were, for as long as we were, you take on certain responsibilities of the other. If it had been me who had not made it, Major Coolidge would be talking right now to my son Jim. But the way it turned out is I'm talking to you, Butch. I got something for ya. [Holds up watch] This watch I got here was first purchased by your great-grandfather during the first world war. It was bought in a little general store in Knoxville, Tennessee, made by the first company to ever make wrist watches. Up until then, people just carried pocket watches. It was bought by Private Doughboy Ryan Coolidge the day he set sail for Paris. This was your great-grandfather's war watch, and he wore it every day he was in the war. Then when he had done his duty, he went home to your great-grandmother, took the watch and put it in an old coffee can. And in that can it stayed 'til your granddad Dane Coolidge was called upon by his country to go overseas and fight the Germans once again. This time they called it World War Two. Your great-grandfather gave this watch to your granddad for good luck. Unfortunately, Dane's luck wasn't as good as his old man's. Dane was a Marine and he was killed along with all the other Marines at the battle of Wake Island. Your granddad was facing death, and he knew it.
---
What is that story HG?
Residential construction had a great run. You could have stayed employed for a decade. They must have felt like bad times had been banished for good.
Just a little pulp fictiion, CK.
You write as well HG? Sheesh. I'm a slacker. I keep thinking about writing a book but I never know where to start. Story of my life. I keep waiting to start that as well....sigh.
Nova, you don't know how many builders told me they had the boom / bust figured out - and everything was going to be fine for years. That was in the 2004 to 2005 period - I gave them my view, and they thought I was crazy
best wishes
CK<
It isn't my material.
Royale with cheese.
Midevil on your ass.
You
ers are awe-full quiet tonight....
CalculatedRisk wrote:
Bill,
fit; wear them.
If the
Quad Post:
Boom!
Needs more
You just reminded me of a conversation I overheard today at work nova. A couple of contractors sitting together discussing the "good old days" One of the houses they worked on that sold for 1.2 million was just sold for 235K here. They were loud and on their way to drunk. Another guy sitting at the bar said many of the construction "braggarts" were now hanging around at the gas station down the street that somehow or other sells draft beer on premise. They buy a pitcher and sit on the parking lot talking about the jobs they've done. I told him the loud table of contractors that were there today were part of the "Former Big Spenders" club. One was actually lamenting getting thrown out of the strip club because he could no longer afford the 30 dollar lap dances and was now only tipping dollars. Apparently he thought he could take the same liberties as he used to when he was spending the 30. I had to pull him aside finally and tell him "This isn't the Toy Box darlin' and you'll need to tone it down in here. I explained who the owners of my bar are and being a local he immediately knew any minor screw up on his part would result in hand cuffs. He quieted down and tipped me a five
HomeGnome wrote:
Didn't everyone get their fill of
on this afternoon's thread?
"End of the capitalist system as we know it."
I mean, if you want an encore after that, we'll have to get nova involved.
HG I have no idea what you just said but thanks for the flowers! They're beautiful!
Sorry Mook.
I was off line this afternoon.
I'm interested in this "End of the capitalist system as we know it"...
I missed today's threads. Did we reach peak doom?
Ha HG, I am too. I've been pushing for that for years.
CK<
Pulp Fiction.
You know, like the movie, and stuff, dude.
Comrade Kristina, So are the owners of the bar retired cops?
Interesting story CK. I liked that. In a few years they will be telling each other about the subdivisions they built back in the day. Then they will scratch themselves and go look outside in the can for butts to roll.
Kahuna<
Just had a couple of pints of homebrewed Alt.
Comrade Kristina wrote:
Peak? That's so ... subjective.
But thanks to mp, it brought back memories of last March, I can tell you that.
Comrade Kristina wrote:
Begin at the Beginning and Go on till You Come to the End: Then Stop. -- The Mad Hatter.
Man, I'm still taking cold medications so alcoholic is not an option, but I got a Belgium blond on tap that has been tempting me for days now.
No KK, but they've owned bars in this town for 30 years and have a reputation for not putting up with nonsense. We simply don't have trouble in my bar. We have an older clientele and even cussing is frowned upon when ladies are present. Many retired military are regulars there.
Comrade Kristina, sounds like my type of dive. But after some days the cussing does come out. I think I hit my peak when we bailed out AIG for the first time.
CalculatedRisk wrote:
Well, maybe they're right for the wrong reasons. Admit it: Do you know anybody else so preoccupied with economic graphs and data? That would deign to bring them to the masses?
Kauai_Kahuna wrote:
Yes, I'm afraid I would never be allowed into CK's bar either. Fuck it.
In 2005 I thought I was an idiot and everyone else knew the secret of living well.
JP wrote:
---Just the fine commenters here, JP.
JP wrote:
---It's a bunch of damned bullshit.
Glob Blameit!
Ha Mook is that all? Shadow Banking is mainstream now. I remember the first time I heard it brought it up on MSM and thought "Wow, they aren't even hiding it anymore, that's kinda scary".
Oh, I cuss a blue streak but there is a time and a place. When you have couples in their 60's and 70's in there, that is NOT the time. They were being very loud and using very profane and suggestive language which just wasn't necessary at that time of the day. It's about having some common sense really.
You too nova?
nova wrote:
:nods head: yes.
I couldn't figure out how people around me were dropping $6k on 40th birthday parties, new cars every 2 years. Now I know - HELOC.
I thought everyone else was making serious coin.
Mike in Long Island wrote:
---Dumbasses.
CK,
I actually almost all my life I have felt like that. I used to think everyone got issued the "Life Manual" except for me. You know, the one in leatherette binding that told you how to handle relationships, buy stuff, and make money.
Enjoying the war stories these last two threads, btw.
My family's are much more prosaic. 3 uncles in the Pacific, all crawled into a bottle after the war and would never talk about it, except to show their collections of various trophy pieces - what I now recognize as an Arisaka Type 99 rifle, a Type 14 pistol, some various rank insignias.
My father was a cook on a Merchant Marine cargo ship in the North Atlantic convoys. His stories involved catching fresh fish off the back of the boat.
Nova, Don't no who to thank but byglod I was born that way and now the old gal that sat at the holiday table and had to have North Face explained to them and then said Oh, bet it was make in Korea, North, No. For a dollar and you paid what?
Maury the Credit Responsibility Panda wrote:
---The more things change; the more they stay the same.
A lot of us wondered what was going on. Really had no idea how crazy till it feel apart. Sad really none of this had to happen.
YouTube - She Talks to Angels (Acoustic...Rare)
the pain gonna make everything all right.
HomeGnome wrote:
Yeah I didn't get it. Renting out clubs, top shelf liquor, 100 guests, dj - the whole 9 yds. I'm like WTF? My 40th I had some friends and family over and I grilled some food and drank some beer.
CK,
I especially felt it from 2003 on. People driving BMW's on shit job pay. Everyone talking about their sq ft. I felt like I had wandered in from the kitchen to a party that I hadn't been invited to.
nova wrote:
I had just been through (and participated in) Silicon Valley's bubble, which I thought was epic. I realized in 2005 that things were completely broken when I moved from CA to DC and the house prices were about the same (but the weather was much crappier.) I was shocked when I realized I was seeing a second bubble. (Thank you HBB.)
The internet bubble went on much longer than I ever would have guessed (I told my sister to sell Yahoo way early. Fortunately, she has a thirty year history of never taking my advice.) So I had no clue as to when the bubble pop would occur. The whole thing is like a wreck: I can't not look.
Mike in Long Island wrote:
---You have real friends, Mike.
Ahahahaha excellent advice JP!
MaryAnn...
Yeah. People actually were killed to get their coats... Insane.
nova wrote:
Around here it was a combination of the BMW 5 series and the supersize SUV - Escalades were real popular, as were Expeditions, Armadas, Yukons and Hummers.
With Foreclosures Hitting, Housing Starts Don't Help - Forbes.com
"Widespread foreclosures will dampen new construction for months as the market works to slough off excess supply."
Months? Yeah, as long as you count in multiples of 12.
Glad to hear that someone else felt the way that I did some years ago.
My wife - who earns the bread - would wonder aloud how the folks could afford such housing and it felt as though we just scrimping by. I felt guilty at times 'cuz she'd want to go somewhere wild on vacation with the kids and I'd just shake my head 'no'. Likewise, the vehicles.
I'd just say the same thing, HELOC.
I plunked down the cash to pay off my mortgage, and then went on vacation for a month with a couple of friends. I just hope I top that when I turn 50.
And you probably had a better time Mike. I remember being dumbfounded by the price of weddings. 30K was a drop in the bucket. People paying 5K for a
cake. Hubby and I got married in 2007 and it cost less than a grand. It was beautiful. We had the reception at our house (even had people swimming in the pool) and were married at sunset on the powdered sugar sand beach at the State Park. It cost us 4 bucks a carload to drive in. My patrons chipped in and paid for all the meat, made all the side dishes and showed up at 8am to smoke all the meat. We paid for the liquor which I got a discount on via my bar, my wedding cake and our clothes and flowers. I got a great deal on my wedding dress it was 249 bucks and it was HOT. Hubby wore a white linen outfit that we got on sale for 50 bucks. Everyone had a great time.
And yet...
15 Housing Related Stocks That Double the S&P YTD - CNBC
Kauai_Kahuna wrote:
---That's how it is supposed to be done.
The local CoP drives Escalades and takes 12-15 on cruises on a shitjob pay and off on a City Seminar locked his keys in the ESC, with all his big friends standing round called onstar and was told he was so for behind on his fee they would not be able to help him. Underwater.
Comrade Kristina wrote:
Aren't you supposed to
the herb and cook the meat?
"Everyone had a great time."
That's the point of the whole thing, isn't it? My wife and daughter watch the wedding dress show on TLC and I just shake my head since my daughter is getting the message that I'm not putting out $3K for a dress. Honestly, she's the size that she can wear the dress that my wife and her mother were both married in.
I'm not really missing the end of consumerism.
nova wrote:
I thought everyone else was crazy and not willing to listen.
homedad43 wrote:
And therein hangs a tale? No, not in the dress!
This is starting to read like the old Patty Duke theme song:
They look alike, they walk alike
Sometimes they even talk alike
You could lose your mind...
Ha Mike, I did quite a bit of that as well. In fact, in my wedding photos if you look at hubby's front shirt pocket you can see a blunt.
YouTube - Sir Mix-A-Lot - I like big butts ( Official Music Video )
No, not simultaneously.
Airedales, sheesh.
2005 and 2006.I was variously ridiculed,screamed at,physically threatened by a loan broker (now foreclosed on,divorced and bankrupt) and fired.Some friends did listen,and one will buy me a good dinner any time I am in the East Bay and has promised to do so for as long as he lives.Others no longer speak to me.
homedad, here is a link to my wedding album. Show your daughter these. Less than a grand.....
Picasa Web Albums - Talina Michelle - Orlando Krist...
Kauai_Kahuna wrote:
That would be hard to top. This year I will be on a 2 week vacation during my birthday. We travel to see my wifes family every 4 yrs or so. No - they aren't bad or anything - just far - as in the Philippines 22hr trip
I will be spending some time on a relatively deserted white sand beach for my birthday this year...
Amorita Resort
Hanging with the tarsiers Philippine Tarsier - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia and drinking San Miguel.
Tom Stone wrote:
---That's the way it is for the truth tellers, no?
JP wrote:
I never really counted on anything after the Nascrash. If you were in tech, that felt like a sector-specific depression. Then, when what passed as a recovery started in 2003, the companies I dealt with offshored everything that wasn't nailed to the datacenter floor for another couple of years.
My (modest) house was paid for by 2002 and I had no debt, not even car payments, no card balances, nothing.
Around 2005, the way I recall putting it at the time was that it felt like we were in the terminal phase of capitalism, where it was purely a matter of sauve qui peut and individual plunder. I knew the derivatives were going to have something to do with the problem, but I thought it would start with the auto industry.
Mike in Long Island, that is pretty far down in the south. Have you check the travel warnings lately?
Things are still kind of hot down there the last I heard.
Maury the Credit Responsibility Panda wrote:
You caused me to google that. It's one of the reasons this place is so great - you have a chance to learn something every day.
"every man for himself" or "let him save himself who can"
Thanks.
Wildly OT:
YouTube - Whale Song
Kauai_Kahuna wrote:
It's not too far south. I wouldn't go to Mindanao and even in Manila or Makati there is a chance something happens. The first time in Makati the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF!) set off a bomb in a mall in was in maybe 15 minutes after I left. I don't take stupid chances - especially where my family is concerned but I'm also not going to live in fear. I worked close enough to the WTC to lose the windows in my office from the towers collapsing - bad stuff can happen anywhere. Odds are I'll get taken out by a Starbucks swilling, soccer mom, texting while driving her princess to dance class in their Escalade.
Thanks for the warning though.
Mike in Long Island wrote:
---Jeebus, Mike.
, here.
You're going full-on
Mike in Long Island wrote:
I once asked a Manila friend if a gringo were to settle in the PI, what region would be the most salubrious, friendly and settled.
"Somewhere in the Visayas" was the answer. Which was great since I had business in Cebu and Iloilo. That was way back when though . . .
Enjoy the trip Mike.
Hahahaha Mike, too true.
Gotta put poor overworked hubby to bed. 24 days without a day off and counting for him. Looking forward to his "weekend" of working 36-40 hours in two days time. I'm not sure who is freaking out more between the two of us. I'm ready to put the kibosh on the whole thing. They also told them they have to work Monday. So they'll work maybe til 2AM Monday morning after working all weekend straight and have to be back at 7AM Monday. At some point health and safety concerns come into play. I am not willing to sacrifice my husband for a paycheck.
Mike in Long Island wrote:
Sort of in keeping with the military theme tonight, I was thinking of the Chanson de Roland, where the line figures prominently.
The French were fighting a rear-guard action in the mountain passes of the Pyrenees. The story mutates over time: Roland becomes Charlemagne's nephew; the Christian Basques become Muslim Saracens.
When things begin going badly, the traitor Ganelon urges the French army to flee, to "sauve qui peut."
CK:
Thanks for the linkage. Tooled off for a short period to catch the afternoon thread...vintage mp doom.
Personally, don't give it even five years.
"Odds are I'll get taken out by a Starbucks swilling, soccer mom, texting while driving her princess to dance class in their Escalade."
Nice fatalistic attitude there, and I wholesale approve and concur.
S*** happens.
Mike in Long Island, good point of view. But also make certain you have a quick route out of the hotel, close to a rental etc.
I'm planning on spending my vacation in Thailand, demonstrations don't bother me but bombings, and grenades being thrown at cop's do. In general though too many people are killed in traffic accidents.
homedad43 wrote:
Yes that was something.
Thanks to Mook who flagged it for the latecomers.
Today was a good
day. Brought back some of my faith in humanity.
very beautiful. And though you both look great, I see no blunt.
homedad, I just finished reading that one too. I never tire of mp and Conjure bag. Personally, I hope they crash it sooner rather than later. I'm still physically able to help myself. In ten years I'll be 53 and somehow foraging for food in Mad Max land doesn't sound awesome at that age.
homedad43 wrote:
You know, I wasn't always a "doomer."
Anak wrote:
Thanks Anak. I dread the flight but otherwise I'm looking forward to it - though the exchange rates aren't quite as favorable as the last time I was there. Probably no more San Miguels for 25 cents.
Last time we spent time in Boracay so I have a sense of what Visayas has to offer. Another nice area is Baguio or the City of Pines - its at elevation so the temps are in the 60's - a very nice change from the heat of the city.
Look at this one, closely. In the breast pocket at the bottom. My photographer edited out the obvious ones that I have on my computer.
Maury the Credit Responsibility Panda wrote:
I was actually quite happy about the crash. I thought (correctly) that it would be the end of many "pretend" companies: Since valuations were often stated as a $M/employee, people would hire stupidly and build the appearance of a company without any of the functionality.
Obviously, what I failed to anticipate was that the BS would transfer to another industry. But boy was I ready the second time around.
Comrade Kristina wrote:
Kristina, that's very kind of you.
Oh hey mp! I always seem to miss you lately. Hope all is well with you and Conjure. You know I've been screaming about the derivatives since I got here. Heck, that is how I found this blog when I was researching the Quadrillion dollar fiasco. I knew we were doomed when I first heard the words "Shadow Banking System" on the MSM. I figured it was over if they were openly admitting to what they were doing. In essence telling us "we no longer care if you know or not, all your milk shakes are belong to us now".
I just stepped across the
threshold and bought some barbarous. I already was holding some CEF, but anyone's guess how that'll do longterm.
I think the 'herb' will be a currency too. Eagerly awaiting its legalization. There's just too much risk of jail to use it for now.
"See your milkshake! I put my straw in your milkshake. Drink it all up. Try stop me!"
mp wrote:
I know - that's what is depressing me.
Now I really need to get to bed.
PS KK enjoy Thailand . I've never been but would love to go someday. Perhaps when my kids are a bit older the wife and I can sneak over there if things haven't totally gone to hell in a handbasket by then. And yes to your comments about general situational awareness.
Comrade Kristina wrote:
Well, they're certainly worth screaming about.
JP wrote:
But, of course, it wasn't as clear then how dependent we were on The Next Bubble. In retrospect, I suppose it should've been obvious that people burned by virtual things would seek out real things as stores of value.
Mike in Long Island wrote:
In 2005 I was working for a state park as a volunteer in exchange for a free campsite in a beautiful location...
I always thought so mp but quite a few here seemed to think they'd be a "wash" or at best five percent of notional. Somehow 5% of a Quadrillion in bets didn't seem like a great prospect to me. And math isn't my strong suit.
FWIW : mp I used to post under a different name, and occasionally under anonymous back in the day. I know, shameful. The bond meltdown clock gave me the fear. In the Hunter S. Thompson sort of meaning.
Conjure updates are always a highlight, in a seawater-in-the-face sort of way.
mp wrote:
I can sense that, and so speaking fortifies the message.
To everything there is a season, and
a time to every purpose under heaven:
A time to be born, and
a time to die;
a time to plant, and
a time to pluck up
that which is planted;
A time to kill, and
a time to heal;
a time to break down, and
a time to build up;
A time to weep, and
a time to laugh;
a time to mourn, and
a time to dance;
A time to cast away stones, and
a time to gather stones together;
a time to embrace, and
a time to refrain from embracing;
A time to get, and
a time to lose;
a time to keep, and
a time to cast away;
A time to rend, and
a time to sow;
a time to keep silence, and
a time to speak;
A time to love, and
a time to hate;
a time of war; and
a time of peace.
Ecclesiastes 3:1-8
SPOOL wrote:
Well, you know, I have no interest in making people fearful but do believe that, lacking the Fed's unprecedented intervention, all of us would be out in the woods looking for dinner right now.
Unfortunately, I think there's more coming.
Anak wrote:
The best book on timing ever written.
ShadowInventory wrote:
Years from now they'll call you a pioneer.
dryfly wrote:
Sounds like a barter/trade system to me...
.
Maury the Credit Responsibility Panda wrote:
I don't remember when I had my moment of clarity in regards to the RE/credit
, but it was tied to think about the .com bust and subsequent "recovery". I realized in some round about way that there was too much "money" in the system, and it all had to go somewhere. It should have been removed from the system, but it wasn't so it ended up chasing real stuff. Granted, I hadn't made the mental jump to account for the insane leveraging in the system, but I realized that there was just too much liquidity with no one really trying to remove it from the system or at least trap it.
yagij wrote:
Camp hosts are pretty common & a great gig but I too wondered how the gubbmint handles its own bartering - lord knows they'd never practice double standards, right?
Met a lady who was a camp host at Padre Island Nat'l Seashore - taught school in the fall/winter/spring and was camp host all summer at a camp ground on the beach... she goes back to work and snow birds come down and take over. I was taking mental notes for sure. I was on a business trip and crashed there for a few days between calls.
yagij wrote:
Me either but I can say it was around the time I showed up here [circa 2005]... I was reading Angry Bear which lead me to this site and Setser's... I was trying to figure out how we could be making less and less as a society and yet consuming more and more. Greenspan's 'conundrum' alone just wasn't a satisfying explanation... it was only when I fully grokked the money cycle from Asia to Wall Street MBS to HELOC's & RE build to consumer consumption to CAD and back to Asia... that I had the 'Ah Ha' or rather 'Oh No' moment. From that moment on I don't think I was ever invited to people's parties more than once...
A little doom for ya . . .
Local News | Walgreens: no new Medicaid patients as of April 16 | Seattle Times Newspaper
Coming to a drug store chain near you.
Exxon Paleontologists Call For Increased U.S. Fossil Production | The Onion - America's Finest News Source
re hunting for food in the woods.
That's one of the maddening things about the whole mess. I believe that the system was on verge of coming apart and that the Fed and Treasury did do a decent job of keeping the wheels on...my peers thought that I was nuts.
But then they just rolled over for the TBTF (yeah, I'm avoiding the word "bank"). Just maddening.
It's like the commanding officer getting everybody out alive and then turning coat and having everyone interned.
Jeez.
Anyways, off to bed. G'night folks.
Hawley Smoot wrote:
You are but a padawan when it comes to
.
Don't you (or someone you know) need to be using Medicaid for it to count?
dryfly wrote:
I only did it for one summer but I know a lot of people who do it... doesnt pay much but you get to live in places that you could not otherwise... even in primitive campgrounds the host normally has full hookups so you can live there like it was your house in the most gorgeous places... I had one spot for 2 months that was about 50 feet back from the surf in a day use area - this place used to be an indian village a long time ago but now it is a state park day use area so my main job was to stop people from digging it up... picked up a little trash on the beach, did a little mowing, was a 24/7 security guard - not much work really... I also did 2 months as a lighthouse tour guide, and another month as a campground host but that was after labor day and there were not very many campers so I had little to do - spent 5 months living in the most awesome places, but dealing with the state employees took a lot of the shine off it...
Some of the other hosts were doing it because they really needed the free rent - disabled people, elderly poor - but a lot of them just did it so they could be in these places and some people felt like they were doing something good for the country. I felt that the park service was just another bloated govt agency, that they could have done a lot more with the funding they had, but mostly the managers were empire building - they had state rangers who had arrest authority cleaning bathrooms and hauling trash... I thought that work should have been outsourced and the savings could have paid for park improvements - lot of the roads were falling apart, sewers needed rebuilt etc....
dryfly wrote:
Yup, me too. I would never have understood the enormity of it without this site.
Hawley Smoot wrote:
Private insurance drug plans will be next - many are just as bad when it comes to reimbursement.
Matches the mood:
YouTube - Pink Floyd "Shine On You Crazy Diamond" Syd Barrett Tribute
In 2005 I gave loan brokerage a try after being urged to do so for years by a friend.In my first week a sales rep came by and told me about their stated income option arms...he said taking 3 points was fine (!) and if there was a problem with the income the underwriter would drop the file on his desk,he would call me and we would fix it together.I told him I was not real comfortable committing multiple felonies and he said not to worry,everyone did it which was why they were called Liars Loans.He is still in the business and has since been promoted which is no surprise.The fact that he proposed committing multiple felonies to a complete stranger flabbergasted me,but he made a pile of $ and got promoted and I got out of the business.Rick,at golden west...still have his card.
yagij wrote:
I called the top of the market Oct 6th, 2005 shortly after breakfast but never said why. That’s when my $9/hr housekeeper from Nicaragua (8hrs every other week, green card) told me about her new house in Oxnard.
- Rob Dawg | January 24th, 2006 at 9:33 am
She also paid double what I paid. I immediately sold all my non-personal use real estate and unloaded the last by April 2006. My own private Joe Kennedy and the shoeshine boy moment.
This. Multiplied a few million times over.
Wow.
Six questions for Richard Posner on Capitalism and Crisis.
http://harpers.org/archive/2010/03/hbc-90006718
Answers to #3 and #4 are interesting.
Rep. Bachus demands hearing on Lehman report, says Fed, SEC may have 'turned a blind eye' on fraud
REUTERS
Wednesday, March 17th 2010, 11:29 AM
Wong/Getty
Rep. Spencer Bachus, the top Republican on the House of Representatives Financial Services Committee, said the report showed regulators' failure to act on evidence of accounting gimmicks at Lehman.
A Republican lawmaker requested a congressional hearing on a bankruptcy examiner's report on Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc (LEHMQ.PK), saying the findings cast doubts on the Federal Reserve's supervisory role.
Representative Spencer Bachus, the top Republican on the House of Representatives Financial Services Committee, said the report highlighted regulators' failure to act on evidence of accounting gimmicks used to hide Lehman's insolvency.
"Either the SEC and the New York Federal Reserve failed to discover the ongoing accounting fraud at Lehman, or they turned a blind eye to the ongoing fraud," Bachus said in a letter to the committee's chairman, Barney Frank, requesting a hearing.
He said the hearing would be especially important given legislative proposals to expand the Fed's regulatory powers.
Read more: Rep. Bachus demands hearing on Lehman report, says Fed, SEC may have 'turned a blind eye' on fraud
ot-isn't our current little bull rally due for a 'correction'?
Bubblisimo Gerkinov wrote:
We can melt up into the op-ex on Friday. After that there's nothing under this market for 3% at the very least.
*removed
2. How significant was the Fed’s decision to allow Lehman Brothers to collapse?
I think it was a very serious mistake, because when Lehman Brothers collapsed the investors at hedge funds and other broker dealers got scared.
Arrrrg. I want them to be scared. If you are lending and not sleeping well, worrying if you are going to get repaid, that is a GOOD thing.
Completely OT, but if you're a SF fan, you'll love this:
The Way the Future Blogs, an online memoir by science fiction writer Frederik Pohl
Addictive . . .
Rob Dawg wrote:
What does that mean?
Apology accepted.
Bubblisimo Gerkinov wrote:
Triple Witching Day for the stock market: Contracts for stock-index futures, stock-index options and stock options all expire together. Brace for volatile trading.
op-ex is the options expiration part.
Hawley Smoot wrote:
I find #5 the most interesting myself - #6 the least satisfying. YMMV.
Bubblisimo Gerkinov wrote:
three weeks, fed mbs money printing is over.
From Pettis:
... He [Krugman] may be right. Aside from the fact that it is not clear how China can dump Treasury bonds, he claims that it would only help the Fed in its quantitative easing, and would probably do far more damage to Europe (since China would presumably have to buy euros) than to the US.
The latter point is almost certainly correct. China’s Selling dollars and buying something else would allow the US to get even more bang for its protectionist buck, probably at poor Europe’s expense. I would also add that the main long-term impact of dumping USG bonds might be no more than to cause a liquidation of Chinese assets at very low prices, and an equivalent transfer of wealth from China to the US (or to others likely at some point to buy cheap dollar assets).
Remember that at the beginning of WW1 something similar happened. In an urgent attempt to raise gold reserves to pay for the war, in the late summer of 1914 European belligerents dumped onto US markets what amounted to a far greater share of US assets than China currently holds. This caused about six months of havoc, and many sleepless nights in New York and Washington. But the US responded by putting into place temporary capital and stock market controls, and when the dust settled, the net effect was one of the most massive short-term transfers of wealth ever recorded from one group of countries, the European belligerents, to another, the US. European dumping caused a collapse in prices, and US investors ultimately scooped up the assets up very cheaply.
That doesn’t mean that there will be no cost for the US if China dumps, but rather that the cost might be absorbed fairly comfortably over a reasonable time period. I suppose I will be very unpopular for pointing this out — especially with people in the US Treasury department and among Chinese cold warriors — but please don’t blame the messenger. I am just trying to use the limited historical precedents to figure out what is likely to happen. We have seen asset dumping before, and on an even larger scale, and the US capital market is deep enough that it might easily absorb it. ...
Yeah,IT,he was blithe about it.No big deal about committing federal felonies (Mortgage Fraud,conspiracy),just part of the program.I have done volunteer work in jails and prisons for years and they are not somewhere I want to spend years of my life.I go in for a couple of hours and god,that first breath of air on the outside tastes so sweet.
Rob Dawg wrote:
Thanks.
I was thinking 'operation expenses wtf?'
I work for an options trading firm and we need the volatility which has been sorely lacking since late 2008. It has not been as bad as the .com bust, but volume has been awful.
ghostfaceinvestah wrote:
why 3 weeks?
sk2322 wrote:
Methinks you will get your wish.
There will be nothing left for them to buy. I wish I was joking.