For your amusement/horror, you can also display both listings and foreclosures in progress on hotpads. Near my (rental) house in LA, it is unbelievable. Even in wealthy neighborhoods, it's stunning.

Squatter stimulus:
Effect virtually guaranteed...

IMF: chance to overhaul global economy is receding - Yahoo! Finance

BRUSSELS (AP) -- Nations risk losing a window of opportunity to fix the global financial system in the wake of the credit crisis if they do not push reforms through soon, the head of the International Monetary Fund warned Wednesday.

Stressing the need for cooperation, Dominique Strauss-Kahn also noted China's currency, the renminbi, was undervalued but said he expected it would appreciate as China starts to rely more on domestic demand, helping to rebalance global surpluses and deficits.

He told European lawmakers that he was worried that countries' "receding" commitment to international efforts to overhaul the world economy and the financial system in the wake of a blistering financial crisis could trigger protectionism.

Must be 'en nice.

It's really too bad that Irvine Housing Blog shut down their forums. There were a lot of really knowledgeable people who used to post on there. It did devolve into heated shouting matches about shadow inventory, but some of the discussion on specific neighborhoods or builders in the area were invaluable.

CalculatedRisk wrote:

I'm back to dial up speeds again today with Time Warner. Geesh ... they are killing me
best to all

FIOS - at a minimum you can tell your doctor you're getting more fiber each day...

Cinco-X wrote:

Where you all be?

Answering your question about the current Treasury/Mortgage spread. 25-50 bps. I expect it to go to roughly 150 bps after the purchases end.

We need to know more about this transaction. For example, was there a notice of default posted and the foreclosure has just been delayed endlessly? Who's the lender? Bank or servicing company? My guess is that it's a bank in trouble that doesn't want to post the losses.

Rob Dawg wrote:

I expect it to go to roughly 150 bps after the purchases end.

agree. though with spikes higher on some days as buyers disappear/get filled up/etc.

Oxtail wrote:

Real Housewives of OC types who are really annoying.

I've never seen the show but somehow I can envision the type of annoying you are describing.

Rob Dawg wrote:

Answering your question about the current Treasury/Mortgage spread. 25-50 bps. I expect it to go to roughly 150 bps after the purchases end.

Saw that; maybe, maybe not. I don't think the market will bear substantially higher rates. We'll see.

Oxtail wrote:
But squatters in Irvine tend to be Real Housewives of OC types who are really annoying.
Cool... existing entitlement mentality and narcissistic assessment of intelligence will be further boosted by the belief they're 'savvy' for figuring out a(nother) way to get something for nothing

Like health care, every American has a right to a home. Even the house wives of OC!

Reading this vignette really makes you want to question why be responsible and pay taxes while the amoral scumbags get a free ride

Cinco-X wrote:

I don't think the market will bear substantially higher rates.

What market?

ghostfaceinvestah wrote:
Average days delinquent for loans in foreclosure, now 410 days, up from 260 days in 2008.

Wow! The incentives to default grow and grow. Over a years free rent... I guess if you want more of something, subsidize it.

Charles Kiting wrote:

Cinco-X wrote:
I don't think the market will bear substantially higher rates.
What market?

The market formerly know as hard money lending.

...my local Ca. ski resort is offering a Lifetime VIP pass for $5000.

Can't remember the last time I saw such an opportunity

I live here in Calabasas (Los Angeles) and I can point to at least three different families that have absolutely stopped paying their mortgage for at least a year, maybe more. It is kind of difficult to know their situation and not have an opinion.

CR, I find that in many cases it is the young people who never had a down payment but leveraged themselves up to get "the house of their dreams" too fast. Are there any stats on who these people tend to be?

Maybe SoCal is special, but I view this issue as very common right now. I wonder if Bank of America is holding these loans as "held to maturity".

What happened to underwriting and banking supervision? Exactly how does Bernanke still have his job?

We reward failure, incompetence and shams.

And all this idiocy stems from the daft notion that deflation must be prevented at all costs.

Angry Saver wrote:

the daft notion that deflation must be prevented at all costs

But, if it's your wages that are deflating, that's called a "productivity gain."

We paid $269 for a season pass from March 1 of this year and into next season, and we've gone 4 days now, so if they go belly up next year it's a wash, no big deal... but a $5k investment in frozen waterboarding at this juncture?

ye gads

Bloomberg.com:
News

Rob Dawg wrote:

The market formerly know as hard money lending.

What's old is new again-

I don't think that deflation prevention was anything more than a minor motivation. Why were the ihb forums shut dowbn?

Pope Benedict XVI in an Oct. 7 speech reflected on crashing financial markets saying that “money vanishes, it is nothing” and concluded that “the only solid reality is the word of God.”

Jeebus Pavel. This Pope has all the cred of a real estate saleman. He is just selling a different timeshare.

lawyerliz wrote:

I don't think that deflation prevention was anything more than a minor motivation.

Without inflation, wealth transfer to TPTB would be obvious for everyone to see. With inflation, the prices of our assets appear to rise, and it's not apparent that greater and greater portions of the country's wealth are transferred in the hands of fewer and fewer people....

Stopping what is, and going to happen is like fighting a big wave. Pointless. Just go with it and hope you avoid the jelly fish and getting your shorts filled with sand.

nova wrote:

He is just selling a different timeshare.

But the payments are low and there's no HOA or CA...
...and then there's the raw deal you get from the other guy!

Lockstep wrote:

...here in Calabasas (Los Angeles) and I can point to at least three different families that have absolutely stopped paying their mortgage for at least a year...

Calabasas is probably half BofA half Wells Fargo with a large percentage of those loans held to maturity on their books. This is why I keep pointing to WFC as dead bank walking.

Cinco-X wrote:

They become back of the line creditors, thought they may be ahead of the equity holders

Btw, Cinco, regarding the last thread--just to sweeten the deal for you--we can always rename it "The Cinco-X plan To Save The Economy." You have to admit--it has a nice ring to it.....

nova wrote:

This Pope has all the cred of a real estate saleman. He is just selling a different timeshare.

Yeah, he needs to broaden the appeal, throwing 70 odd virgins or something, works for some other businesses, or just spice it all up a bit, add some space aliens... improvise a bit.
~splat

Effectively, we all pay a fee for Wall St. to create inflation. We then pay more fees to Wall St. in senseless attempts to keep up with inflation.

The prudent and productive are being screwed. It's a giant skimming operation.

CaptainMorgan wrote:

Golds Gym sold yearly memberships discounted right up until the day before the doors were locked. Had a coworker get screwed, and Gold's never made it right.

If it's a franchise, parent company won't care. This happens a lot. Chain gyms that make money on the "membership fee" model (big fee up front, then gradually-lowering monthly payments) are probably in trouble. Their business model counts on a steady stream of new users who give them cash up front -- and mostly vanish after a few months when their resolution flags. They can't make it just on the artificially low fees that the long-time members pay.

• Pope Benedict XVI in an Oct. 7 speech reflected on crashing financial markets saying that “money vanishes, it is nothing” and concluded that “the only solid reality is the word of God.”*

"Jeebus Pavel. This Pope has all the cred of a real estate saleman. He is just selling a different timeshare. "

On the contrary, Nova. This is what the Holy Father says in his encyclical letter Spe Salvi. ( I say from my own experience that he knows what he's talking about):

“Eternal”, in fact, suggests to us the idea of something interminable, and this frightens us; “life” makes us think of the life that we know and love and do not want to lose, even though very often it brings more toil than satisfaction, so that while on the one hand we desire it, on the other hand we do not want it. To imagine ourselves outside the temporality that imprisons us and in some way to sense that eternity is not an unending succession of days in the calendar, but something more like the supreme moment of satisfaction, in which totality embraces us and we embrace totality—this we can only attempt. It would be like plunging into the ocean of infinite love, a moment in which time—the before and after—no longer exists. We can only attempt to grasp the idea that such a moment is life in the full sense, a plunging ever anew into the vastness of being, in which we are simply overwhelmed with joy. This is how Jesus expresses it in Saint John's Gospel: “I will see you again and your hearts will rejoice, and no one will take your joy from you” (16:22). We must think along these lines if we want to understand the object of Christian hope, to understand what it is that our faith, our being with Christ, leads us to expect.

If things go on at this rate, in about three years, the mortgage payments will instead go to the college fund and I'll still live here bando.

Bet JPMChase doesn't know that it's about to become a college finance vehicle.

That's a joke, Echelon, a joke.

Susan Marie wrote:

Taking time to repair my heart and my credit.

One of those is very important. And thanks for the story.

Oxtail wrote:

It's really too bad that Irvine Housing Blog shut down their forums.

Talk Irvine - Home is where many of them went.

I can imagine a homedebtor doing the math now that these stories are making it into the MSM. Hhmm, $2000/month mortgage x 18 months = $36K. Is my credit worth that + however much the home is underwater?

How many will take the free mortgage and run? My guess is that more and more will quit paying and look at it as a personal bailout. The TPTB guessed wrong when they calvinballed the rules for WS while expecting j6p to be stooges and play by the old rules (honor your debts).

It's not the zip code that makes this particular homeowner an easy target for derision. 0% down, $88k withdrawal, and then ending payments? There are a lot of people responsible for the mess we're in and this homeowner is a good representative of the irresponsible consumer side of our current doom equation. This person went delinquent at the housing peak before the recession even started.

I keep wondering if loans in states that have recourse will be easy to get, and in states with no recourse nearly impossible.

I suppose the backlog in the courts might play into it as well.

likes Squatter Stimulus.

SS for the young.

We joke, but it is real people involved---sorry you got caught up in the masdness.

CaptainMorgan wrote:

Golds Gym sold yearly memberships discounted right up until the day before the doors were locked.
Had a coworker get screwed, and Gold's never made it right.

Really? Corporate gave me the rest of my membership at any other Golds for free. Still with them.

splat wrote:

I find the writings of an aged "celibate" former Hitler youth who's part of a boys only club stuck somewhere in the 14th century which features some nasty private habits is not the best source of spiritual enlightenment.

Your comment is missing context. He's one of Pavel's contemporaries.

black dog wrote:

My guess is that more and more will quit paying and look at it as a personal bailout.

Add to that the talk from Sheila Bair (who has never worked a day in the mortgage industry, I might add) about forgiving principal.

What underwater borrower wouldn't default? And best do it now, because when they do give principal forgiveness, it will be grandfathered, that is the way the mortgage industry tries to prevent moral hazard (e.g. HAMP is NOT available for mortgages originated after 1/1/2009).

Eric wrote:

likes Squatter Stimulus.

hasn't seen a report he doesn't like for weeks now.

Pearl wrote:

Now you tell me! And I was long in Linens N' Things gift cards...

Beats being long SRS.

It's the NEW AGE Welfare Queen! Transmogrified!

pavel,

Just because he knows the words to the song does not mean the melody is in his heart.

I don't recall all of the details, but they refused to refund the money, claiming there was another location even if it was about 25 miles away or something like that. Not a great example of customer service to say the least.

I don't work with the guy anymore or I would ask for the details, but he was pretty pissed at the time.

Eric wrote:

Beats being long SRS.

I saw this WSJ article and immediately thought of the poor SRS holders (of which I am also, unfortunately, one). I expected March to be a very volatile month, so this calm is weird.

Markets Idle In March As Volatility, Volumes Drop - WSJ.com

EDIT: And we are at a 52 week high now, completely erasing the losses of February.

Pavel,

I'm a believer in things I can see, touch, smell, taste and hear, the rest not so much.

With papal infallibility he's ALWAYS right.

That's not papal infallibility, which has been invoked twice in 2000 years. The Pope is otherwise not considered to be infallible. But he can be right about many things. In this case he's worth listening to.

Charles Kiting wrote:

There's the 10% tithe though.

Not once you're in-

Eric wrote:

Beats being long SRS

This reminds me. (And I can't help but think of folks like Susan Marie when I am reminded of this.) When I got deep down into the bowels of researching the whole MBS and bond trading thing--there was this one "syndicate" (yes, that's how they referred to themselves) that gave out tee shirts that read, "I'm Short Your House."

Ick.

This oughtta be a good time to:

1) Buy a home financed with tax credit plus low DP from FHA.
2) Rent the house out.
3) Collect the rent but don't pay the mortgage and see how many years it lasts.

This is what out of town investors did in my city in recent past except it went like this

1) Buy a rental property with a fraudulent appraisal that overvalues the property and take extra cash out(get $120,000 loan on $60,000 property)
2) Rent the house out
3) Collect rent but don't pay mortgage or taxes

The one guy from Cali who did this supposedly got up to 20 buildings. I'm sure he made a few million. And ruined a few neighborhoods in my city as well.

I'm a believer in things I can see,

You'd be surprised what you can see if you open your eyes.

Myself, I don['t take anybody's word for anything, unless it's something like the existence of Chicago.

pavel.chichikov wrote:

That's not papal infallibility, which has been invoked twice in 2000 years.

Thrice. John Paul II invoked it.

I am quite concerned with these vertical spikes in the market.

It could at any moment be the hyper-inflation trigger.....

How to sift the hypocracy from any other words spoken?

We all live and die. That's how.

If we're going to cover articles of religious faith today, Dawg you wanna tell me again about USA reserves being higher now than in the '70's?

12th Percentile wrote:

The one guy from Cali who did this supposedly got up to 20 buildings. I'm sure he made a few million. And ruined a few neighborhoods in my city as well.

The wheels of justice turn slowly.

There are news reports of people going to jail over the many forms of mortgage fraud.

Copper up another 1.3% today. Dollar in full meltdown mode now that Bernanke will clearly not pay anyone to hold dollars, possibly forever.

Copper Rises to One-Week High on Speculation Dollar to Retreat - BusinessWeek

Copper prices rose to a one-week high on speculation that low interest rates will spur a retreat by the dollar and boost demand for commodities as alternative investments.

The Federal Reserve yesterday affirmed a pledge to keep its benchmark rate close to zero percent for an “extended period.” The greenback dropped 4.2 percent against a basket of currencies last year as central banks around the world lowered borrowing costs to spur economic growth. Copper futures have almost doubled in the past 12 months.

I've gotta update something. See you later.

Interesting Times wrote:

I am quite concerned with these vertical spikes in the market.

It could at any moment be the hyper-inflation trigger.....

I think such a scenario would be the result of some sort of cascade reaction. I don't see volumes supporting a cascade of anything at the current moment.

pavel.chichikov wrote:

He might have referred to a statement. Link, please?

From Papal infallibility: - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

For example, after Pope John Paul II's apostolic letter Ordinatio Sacerdotalis (On Reserving Priestly Ordination to Men Alone) was released in 1994, a few commentators speculated that this might be an exercise of papal infallibility (for an example, see [3]). In response to this confusion, the Congregation for the Doctrine of the Faith has unambiguously stated, on at least three separate occasions [4] [5] [6], that Ordinatio Sacerdotalis although not an ex cathedra teaching (i.e., although not a teaching of the extraordinary magisterium), is indeed infallible, clarifying that the content of this letter has been taught infallibly by the ordinary and universal magisterium[9].

At the time, the letter was interpreted as ex cathedra, even if it isn't de sure.

Interesting Times wrote:

It could at any moment be the hyper-inflation trigger.....

This article might interest you, starting to sound more and more familiar. Of course, our CPI, with the largest single component being OER, will never reflect the prices people face on a daily basis.

Zimbabwe: Best Performing Stock Market in 2007? - John Paul Koning - Mises Institute

"As prices become more misaligned, basic decision-making abilities of normal Zimbabweans are impaired and the day-to-day functioning of the economy deteriorates. Perversely, all of this has forced the government to issue even more currency to make up for budget shortfalls and to buy support. At last measure, the country's consumer price index was rising (i.e., the purchasing power of currency declining), at a rate of 1,729% a year.

The ZSE is growing some three times faster than consumer prices. This relative outperformance versus general prices is a result of stocks being a chief entry point for the flood of newly created money. Keep Zimbabwean dollars in your pocket, and they've already lost a chunk of their value by the next day. Putting money in the bank, where rates are pithy, is not much better. Investing in government bonds is the equivalent of financial suicide. Converting wealth into foreign currency is difficult; hard currency is scarce, and strict rules limit exchangeability.

As for capital improvements, there is little incentive on the part of companies to invest in their already-losing enterprises since economic prospects look so bleak. Very few havens exist for people to hide their wealth from the evils created by Mugabe's policies. Like compressed air looking for an exit, money is pouring into shares of ZSE-listed firms like banker Old Mutual, hotel group Meikles Africa, and mobile phone firm Econet Wireless. It is the only place to go. Thus the 12,000% year over year increase in the Zimbabwe Industrials."

What the fuck is this?

As someone with multiple charges of Criminal trespassing on his record, I find this disturbing.

I don't see volumes supporting a cascade of anything at the current moment.

Yet....

GFI - Exactly. I read that a while ago. I am just waiting to see it here with my own eyes.

Nevermind.

" meaning????

If he was complicit & he's caught< what should be done? BY THE CHURCH?

bY gERMANY OR iTALY OR, iReland? "

Contact me privately, Liz.. All I meant to do was link to a statement on banking.

Just like the "bank robbers" that made off with a few thousand, as opposed to those that stole by outright leverage and fraud from within to the tune of hundreds of billions of dollars that will never see the inside of a cell.

We just need hyper greed from those with first access to cash and credit.

It takes too big to fail to Tango...

It feels very Argentina 2001 right now

Pass the empanadas.

pavel.chichikov wrote:

Whiskey, you'd have to understand the nature of ex cathedra infallibilty according to canon law. This is way OT,and also way over my pay grade.

But contact me privately and we'll try to parse it.

The subject holds very little interest to me. Even learning about it in high school, it was obvious that the notion of ex cathedra is a reactionary response to modernity (that dates to 1870). Invoking it in the two instances it has amount to nothing burgers, but invoking it or anything close to it to say women can't be priests goes well beyond the spirit of its conception.

Full disclosure, I'm an apostate.

Adding to the anecdotes...

My son rents in Berkeley (triplex). Owner quit paying mortgage Sept. 08 and felt it would be immoral/unethical to collect rent if she wasn't paying so son hasn't paid rent since October, 08. Owner moved out in Jan, 09 (medical reasons) so son has been only resident of triplex since then (15 months).

Home goes to auction March 25th.

Film at eleven.

PS - Berkeley has extremely renter-friendly laws that make it very difficult to eject anyone who is paying the rent. My son's first question when the new owner/bank knocks on the door will be, "Where should I send the check?"

pavel.chichikov wrote:

You can always come back. Even at the last moment.

Just as you can always leave, though it's a free country, and you can do what want.

pavel.chichikov wrote:

You can always come back. Even at the last moment.

Interesting Times wrote:

We don't need wage increases or CPI to create hyper inflation. We just need hyper greed from those with first access to cash and credit.

I have been preaching that here for over a year.

Personally, I think the big hyperinflationary kick will come this summer. The temporary end of money printing in a couple weeks will cool things down a bit, but once MBS spread spike up a couple times, Bernanke will panic and crank up the printing press in a big way. Once the market realizes he will effectively monetize the MBS market, look out above.

In terms of my investments, I am going to sell oil in a couple weeks, probably over 85, buy it back in the 70s this spring, then watch it rocket over $100 by Labor Day. Similar pattern for the copper, gold, etc I hold.

Oz of the barbarous in Argentine Pesos

late 2001: 360 pesos

early 2002: 1080 pesos

I have been preaching that here for over a year.

My belief (so far) If all remains equal, we stay stagnant -> deflationary.

But I question this daily. How many times does Ben have to say "Extended Period" before someone actually believes him?

...the CinderHELOC Economy will last until the clock strikes thirteen.

ghostfaceinvestah wrote:

The temporary end of money printing in a couple weeks will cool things down a bit, but once MBS spread spike up a couple times, Bernanke will panic and crank up the printing press in a big way.

Yes, I am also expecting one last good spike in the greenback before monetization occurs in force. But it seems a long ways off right now, when it seemed so close in February.

noob goldberg wrote:

I found a picture of the button:

Might have to make that my desktop for awhile - goes along with the screen saver text.... "In case of emergency - PUSH THE RED BUTTON - the rest are worthless." - Homer Simpson

Interesting Times wrote:

My belief (so far) If all remains equal, we stay stagnant -> deflationary.

That would take a hell of a balancing effort by Ben. How deflationary can he let it be before you get cascading defaults? How much can he print before someone big starts dumping, Treasuries or MBS?

Jonathan wrote:

Few minutes late, but...

Few minutes late, to start supervising? Yeah...

"Yes. In the hills around LA, it is common to have an RV or mobile home while waiting for permits. It appears that many of them have been there for years, and there might not be any active permits."

I always wondered how Jim Rockford got right down on the beach.

the Bando Brothers are advancing towards the front lines of credit, canyon fodder.

Blackhalo wrote:

How much can he print before someone big starts dumping, Treasuries or MBS?

He is gonna buy them all himself, just watch.

I bet Ron Paul brings up Area 51...

and felt it would be immoral/unethical to collect rent if she wasn't paying so

That looks like English, but I can't understand it.

Is it the English or the ethics you don't understand?

shill wrote:

Yup they are going to ram this thing right down our throats.

... on C-SPAN.

Rob Dawg wrote:

Your own link:

showing reserves from
1970-1979: from 39 million barrels down to 29 million barrels
2000-2008: from 22 million barrelts down to 19 million barrels

tncubsfan wrote:

Blockbuster shares tumble after bankruptcy warning

Wow. I had no idea that Blockbuster was down near the penny stock range.

energyecon wrote:

2000-2008: from 22 million barrelts down to 19 million barrels

The oil god giveth and he draineth it away

Eric wrote:

Elections have consequences.

Yes, the tired can-kickers are replaced by new ones, fresh off the bench.

Good Afternoon, ers.

What's new?

yagij wrote:

3rd stringers (lines for you, Canucks) to take the hits

Usually, you put your fourth line on the ice to GIVE hits.

Wow. I had no idea that Blockbuster was down near the penny stock range.

It's a good thing they have all that commercial real-estate to fall back on.

... oh wait.

Eric wrote:

Usually, you put your fourth line on the ice to GIVE hits.

Right, but I said "3rd". For American Football, it is usually your scrubs. For Hockey, isn't the 3rd like their "scrub" equivalent?
.
Enforcers, like in basketball and hockey, are a totally different beast to the analogy game.

Blackhalo (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Wed, 3/17/2010 - 2:26 pm replyIgnore useryagij wrote:

Wow. I had no idea that Blockbuster was down near the penny stock range.

I'm amazed they are worth anything. I'm pretty sure they rent their space, or franchise, and that business model is dead. Having to transition to Blue-Ray has to be the killing stroke.

• They have been on a death spiral for a few years now. Lot's of overhead and too much new competition from Redbox and Netflix. They are looking at getting into the Redbox type kiosk system but it may be too late for them. The Hollywood video near my house is liquidating all of their merchandise and fixtures, should be closed by the end of the month! 1000's of more empty buildings with the closing of most or all of Blockbuster and Hollywood locations in the next year

Just watching Volcker. Why does he even bother anymore, no one in the Admin gives a f*ck what he says anyway.

Retire while you have some dignity left.

Recent cases show challenge of US terrorists - Yahoo! News

This article focuses on US jihadis, but there are a couple of larger issues at work. First, the credibility of any group dedicated to tearing down the system is only enhanced by the morally bankrupt policies being pursued to prop up failed institutions. Second, it is a gateway to an even greater state security apparatus...

ghostfaceinvestah wrote:

Retire while you have some dignity left.

No way. The "I will come back to haunt you" quote alone was worth having him speechify to the politicians.

What's cookin', Gnome on the range?

OT, looks like the allegations of fraud involved in sales of derivatives to other nations, non-US cities isn't contained to Greece, Deutsche Bank, JPMorgan, UBS Are Charged With Fraud (Update2) - Bloomberg.com

Wonder how much is real prosecutable fraud (quite a bit is my guess) and how much is the Italians figuring this is a good time to file a prosecution like this (hoping for some good settlement offers from the banks).

One question I have is: since the Italians have frozen/confiscated some US bank assets, is the US taxpayer on the hook for making good those bank losses too? Maybe some of the litigation fees? What with the banks being so important to the proper functioning of our financial system & all?

Good overview on reserves:
Oil reserves - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Thanks Sugarland, I'm not in Texas but I'm diligent on the hunt. Do you have a good site for an amorization chart.

Corned Beef and Cabbage, JD.

Did I read or dream this, but the price of gasoline will not stop going up until we are at the price of Europe, No.

GREEN for the day?

Juvenal Delinquent wrote:

And in the latter part of his statement, he's a little like my ski resort offering lifetime memberships, no?

The Preacher and the Slave - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

ghostfaceinvestah wrote:

Don't let oil alone distract you. Notice the price of copper today for example.

And yet gold is kind of, meh... Sure looks like there area some games going on there.

Lunch, turkey on wheat with a glass of milk. Now a fresh brewed cup of coffee direct from Panama.

Not with your percocet. Stay away from that mix.

I don't go in for such silliness as green beer

HG,

How do you feel about the silliness of green eggs and ham?

Juvenal Delinquent wrote:

YouTube - Elvis Costello AF Goon Squad

Sound is busted on my laptop

I do not like them, Sam I am.

Hee's an update on the Ben & Paul show:

blah, blaH, Blah, blah, blah, Blah, blah, blaH

Audit Ben

Blackhalo wrote:

Rob Dawg wrote:
It is the taxes that are different and in that you may be correct.
Around 40%, is it not? But that still does not make MaryAnn wrong... State are going to get money and create jobs somehow, and I bet a brutal gas tax (and token public transportation) is it. Light rail anyone?

Anywhere from 200%-50%. The US is ~20%. Light rail costs 3x what auto passenger travel costs. That's no way to "save" money.

Light rail costs 3x what auto passenger travel costs. That's no way to "save" money.

RD,

We're not trying to "save" money. We're looking to create credit.

lawyerliz wrote:

GREEN for the day?

is showing his festive side for St. Patty today.

Pumping 17b of 22b and having 19b left.

Yes, obviously 14b of additional reserves were added in that timeframe. Which would suggest that we pumped at a rate faster than we added reserves.
In any case the reserve figures (while informative) can't be regarded as some hard and fast figure, as they don't come with a dollar figure attached to describe how easy or difficult it is to get them out of the ground. Adding 10b of reserves at Saudi production costs (what, $2 per barrel?) would be a fantastic resource discovery; adding 10b of reserves with some variable-and-unknown production costs between $25 and $50 per barrel would be interesting and represent a nice reserve to fall back on; adding 10b of reserves that cost $80/bbl to extract is basically useless.

tncubsfan wrote:

Every time they release Volker to speak, the markets go down immediately

Yes, the boys on Wall Street are saying "GET THE OLD MAN OFF THE STAGE".

And since they have always had our best interests at heart, I'm sure it's time for Volker to go gently into that good night.

Just because I hate money, and I think the VIX is really stupidly low, I'm dipping a tow in the casino with a Sep 10% OTM straddle on SPY (105/130).

Weeping to continue, I am sure.

lawyerliz wrote:

iCK. i'M PART iRISH, BUT DON't like dark beer.

Smithwick's Irish Ale from the same brewer.

Rob Dawg wrote:

Smithwick's Irish Ale from the same brewer.

Was down at the local pub last night, had a local micro brew with the appetizers, and then was drinking a Guinness with the main course, when the Guinness marketers dropped by and offered everyone in the bar a freebie (Harp/Guiness/Smithwicks).

I tried the Smithwicks. I'd rather have the Guinness.

RueTheDay wrote:

This lady is a perfect example of why instead of a CFPA, we really just need a return to standardized mortgages (15 and 30 year fixed, maybe 3/1 and 5/1 ARMs in certain cases) and sane lending standards (28/36 DTI, LTV < 80%, 10-20% down payments, documentation of income, decent FICOs).

Or just maybe try making the lenders eat the losses, instead of the taxpayers.

lawyerliz wrote:

iCK. i'M PART iRISH, BUT DON't like dark beer.

Mmmmm, Guinness. Tastes like chocolate milk to me.

Hyper inflation is not 10,15,20 % rates.

Agreed.

Although, I didn't agree with limited set of potential causes. I think there are other potential causes.... They know what those are... we don't.

bbartlog wrote:

Which would suggest that we pumped at a rate faster than we added reserves.

Ding ding ding! Just a note on reserves, they have to be economic to extract to be reserves...

Dawg: I humbly accept your units correction. Thank you.

(edit: but what's three orders of magnitude among friends? )

Blackhalo wrote:

mmm, Guinness.

Try putting a scoop of vanilla ice cream into an otherwise too bitter dark beer - mmmmmm beer float........

Guinness is sweet enough right out of the tap... but a stout or porter... Rogue ales makes a chocolate stout and you can actually get a chocolate stout float in their public house....

poic wrote:

I chuckle when I hear about hyper inflation right around the corner.

I think a lot of people conflate "currency crisis" with "hyperinflation" because they don't really have the vocabulary to express it.

Thought experiment - I think it's clear what would happen, all else equal, to the British pound (or the yen, or the euro, any deep currency market that isn’t the reserve currency) in the event of a debt default:

Coupon on government debt would go through the roof (it’d all flee to US treasuries)
Prices on essentials (food, water, heating oil and probably weapons) would go through the roof
Prices of assets you owned – your house, car, land, securities – would cliff-dive.
There’d be a massive destruction of credit because no bank would extend it.

Currency collapse, prices of a handful of things rising in the midst of massive deflationary credit contraction.

US is last in line for this. I’ll guess 12 years, just to be consistent with the observation that US = Japan + 10 years.

Eric wrote:

Just because I hate money, and I think the VIX is really stupidly low, I'm dipping a tow in the casino with a Sep 10% OTM straddle on SPY (105/130).

Fight the man, Eric, fight the man.

http://img100.imageshack.us/img100/9907/podborka1211.jpg
http://img694.imageshack.us/img694/5189/crazygoats11.jpg
http://yachtpals.com/files/userimages/seagull.jpg

...my local Ca. ski resort is offering a Lifetime VIP pass for $5000.

2 reasons not to:
1) they declare bankruptcy, new 'owners' (even though the same as the old) will not recognize your life time pass.
[true story: the local mountain in my hood when I was growing up was owned by the hoa of a huge subdivision, a selling point was free skiing for you, family and friends(unlimited) for life....guess how long that lasted before mountain was bankrupt and 'owned' by a new corp- (answer: they did make it a few years)]
2)They know where you live, contract killers probably have bulk rates.