Hey if Broward can get a job, I might have to start looking again.

You're actually signing "Bill"? Even though I've known your name for quite a while now I'll always think of you as CR!

p.s.: Might be a temporary quandary if we ever meet.

Your prediction of a huge March jobs number is making me gun-shy about buying more puts.

Rob Dawg wrote:

We are so screwed.

Not like you hadn't predicted that, too.

8.9% in 2011-Q4 assumes a 2.95% growth path.

mp wrote:

8.9% in 2011-Q4 assumes a 2.95% growth path

mp wrote:

8.9% in 2011-Q4 assumes a 2.95% growth path.

Of course, we must bear in mind that it is not a sensible to begin fiscal contraction when the unemployment rate is nearly 10 percent. What we need to do is put into place sensible measures to reduce the deficit as we recover from the recession. So what are we doing?

First, we have already taken action to ensure that we do not make the fiscal hole deeper. Congress has now enacted statutory pay-as-you-go (PAYGO) legislation. PAYGO forces us to live by a simple but important principle: Congress can only spend a dollar on a non-emergency mandatory spending increase or tax cut if it saves a dollar elsewhere.

Bwahahahahah. We are so screwed.

If the GDP growth rate for this year falls below about 2.7%, unemployment will start rising again.

mp wrote:

If the GDP growth rate for this year falls below about 2.7%, unemployment will start rising again.

When the GDP growth rate for this year falls below about 2.7%, unemployment will start rising faster.

Gordon Brown, 5 days ago.
I'm not sure it was covered here at CR:

But let us be clear: although the economy is now growing, recovery is still in its early stages - and remains very fragile. There will be many months ahead of conflicting statistics, false hopes and mixed signals. In Britain and across the world, we have reached a crossroads in our response to the global economic and financial challenge. Analysis by the international monetary fund shows that if we get things right - if we repair and reform the financial system, invest in green jobs, and bring down trade barriers - we can return to the world growth rates of 5 per cent a year seen before the crisis, and on a more secure basis. But if we get things wrong then the IMF estimates that growth rates could be two per cent a year lower. This could cost the world a full $6 trillion and - over the next four years - up to 200 million jobs. So the progress we have achieved is no excuse to relax our vigilance or resolve. To turn aside now from the course we have set would be an error of incalculable proportions and would hurt our people, our businesses and our country.

Blackhalo wrote:

We would be less screwed had pay-go been in place when decisions were made regarding the recent tax cut and military expeditions...

Pay-go and a $1.6T deficit is just denial beyond reason.

Here's the money shot from G. Brown:

Do we too rapidly and recklessly put into reverse the exceptional fiscal and monetary policy measures of the last two years and risk driving our economies back in to recession - or do we continue to support the private sector recovery until it becomes self-sustaining?
...
Do we let the progress of recovery be overwhelmed by an ideologically-driven programme to cut the responsibilities of government regardless of economic circumstances - or do we hold firm to our carefully constructed deficit reduction plan - a plan we first set out in last year’s budget and we will continue to implement step by step as sustained recovery is achieved.
...
We have already announced tax and national insurance increases that are fair so that we can both cut the deficit and protect hospitals schools and policing. And we are taking the tough decisions on spending. This will include forcing all government departments to make real and lasting efficiency savings. Every single penny of taxpayers money will be spent wisely - founded on the same principle that families and businesses employ to decide their spending.

Part of our tough approach on spending will be the tough approach to pay in the public sector we see announced today. Last week I said that the parliamentary and ministerial salaries of all paid government ministers would be frozen. We must take an equally disciplined approach to pay and benefits right across the public sector. So today I can announce that after the reports of the review bodies we will also freeze the pay of senior staff in the civil service, senior staff in the military, the judiciary, senior managers in the health service and the pay of consultants, GPs and dentists.
...
For the final essential element of our plan to reduce the deficit is a determination to get the economy growing faster. Growth creates jobs, stimulates demand and brings in revenue. Growth reduces the wasted costs of unemployment while at the same time helping to avoid the cycle of deprivation and social breakdown we have seen when generations of families are unable to find work. Our opponents build their policy on political ideology. Ours is a policy built on the experience of economic history.

That is why we have rejected from the outset the laissez faire approach that would have let the recession take its course - and it is why we are investing now in the industries of the future.

This is Britain, but I can imagine hearing the same speech here in America... you don't want to go into the best parts of the speech where he talks about all of their investments for the future... hold on...

Cool, more jobs at lower wages.

mp wrote:

or example, given a 2.95% annual growth rate in GDP, about the best you can hope for is 9.4% unemployment by the end of this year, 8.9% at the end of next year.

You could get lower numbers if more people die, retire, stay in school longer, or leave the country.

Where's the part where Timmy says the government has failed the American people?

In place of Constellation, the Budget proposes to leverage international partnerships and commercial capabilities to set the stage for a revitalized human space flight program, while also accelerating work--constrained for years due to the budget demands of Constellation--on climate science, green aviation, science education, and other priorities.

Green aviation? I can't wait for mp to run that one past conjure.

Rob Dawg wrote:

Pay-go and a $1.6T deficit is just denial beyond reason.

How much would the median tax rate need to be raised to cover the 1.6 trillion? If forced to pay for the go, would the public be more inclined to cut spending?

some investor guy wrote:

What do you have against rearranging how the tax exemption works? BABs have attracted a lot of foreign investors, who otherwise usually don't have much of a reason to buy tax exempt municipals.

Enablers.

Money-market fundholders could see fee hikes Mutual Understanding - MarketWatch

I don't understand why anyone still has money in money market funds. The amount of interest you're getting vs. cash is minimal, but you are so much more likely to get screwed if SHTF.

Rob Dawg wrote:

Enablers.

I'm guessing you also view people who buy short term treasuries at rates approximating zero as enablers?

some investor guy wrote:

Letting the Bush era cuts expire would take a big chunk out of the $1.6 trillion. You could probably get it close to balanced over a period of about 5 years.

'Merkins don't want to tax the rich, because they might be one of them someday.
Besides, they will get money building yachts for their corporate masters, and some of it will trickle down and let hem buy Big Macs.

Hey adornghost is channeling NARM.

some investor guy wrote:

I'm guessing you also view people who buy short term treasuries at rates approximating zero as enablers?

Co-conspirators.

Don't forget, this unemployment thing is going to have major implications for Team Obama come November.

Since we're in the forecasting game, I was tweaked to take a look at this:

Market Skeptics: *****2010 Food Crisis for Dummies***** 

I thought I'd put out there that this does not, in any way, match the feeling I've gotten from my interactions with farmers. While the season was yucky throughout the midwest, as well as dry in the prairies, the final totals weren't too far off. I can respect his conclusions given the reports he was reading, but I'm more concerned about the upcoming year, given the weird weather we had all winter. Extra snow in many areas (perhaps delaying planting), little snow in the prairies (Drought Watch - but don't get too concerned about all the red as there's always minimal precipitation in the prairies over winter), and the El Nino throughout the spring. Either way, it is shaping up to potentially be a roller-coaster of a weather market this year.

But I haven't seen anything indicating a catastrophic food crisis for 2010, as of yet. Not unless the markets go bonkers.

2010 or 2012?

Read Yves Smith's book "Econned", Geithner is using meaningless GDP numbers based on outmoded economic theories that have led us into this mess and cannot lead us out of it.
The Fairy Tale of economics as a "science" continues to control this administration and the MSM. We cannot escape until we recognize that these bozo's have had it wrong from the get go.
We must refuse to believe this economic mumbo jumbo and recognize that these asshats and there excuses are the problem and not the cure.

poic wrote:

why can't we just vote for new spending paid for by floating new state bonds.

Because, depending on what you spend the money for, you either become a hedge fund or a hopeless debtor. If CA had been bond financing only high speed rail and DNA research, things would be different. Instead, it has also been funding purely deficit spending.

Libertarians have all their savings in hawala, shells, beads and stone disks to screw da man.

Rob Dawg wrote:

Individual income tax collected (sans payroll taxes) would have to increase ~120% to cover a $1.6T deficit.

TO 120% or 120% of current levels?

Rob Dawg wrote:

Needs testing debt. We are so screwed.

In addition to the many other ways financial aid is screwed up, if federal or state loans were prohibited at especially expensive or ineffective schools, the prices would simply come down.

Blackhalo wrote:

TO 120% or 120% of current levels?

2.2x current collections.

Tonight is thick-slice bacon with mayo sandwich night.

adornosghost wrote:

Hey, I've been there, and agree completely.

I've found this surprisingly common. People making a lot of money can generally find something they would be willing to pay higher taxes for. However, they don't have a straightforward way to do it. Many also realize that an assortment of games could be played with the process. However, there are certain types of programs that would be very difficult to game. I think NASA is one of them. If allowed to decide where to spend money, the amount people would designate to a NASA budget would exceed the entire current appropriation. Not likely to happen for any really big program, like medicaid.

I would go for it: I'd designate paying down the debt.

unirealist wrote:

hat the heck is going to grow, besides debt collection and bankruptcy filing?

A. Bulldozing homes and vacant buildings.
B. Manufacturing.
C. Alternative energy, maybe.
D. Lobbying, remember the new Supreme Court decision.
E. Private and charter schools.
F. Medical.

some investor guy wrote:

A. Bulldozing homes and vacant buildings.
B. Manufacturing.
C. Alternative energy, maybe.
D. Lobbying, remember the new Supreme Court decision.
E. Private and charter schools.
F. Medical.

What was that phrase again? Oh yeah... "We are so screwed."

TJ and The Bear wrote:

What was that phrase again? Oh yeah... "We are so screwed."

Conjure says, " "

some investor guy wrote:

If you lever way up to invest in something like biotech

NASA and DARPA have paid unintended dividends over time. I'm not sure I'd be inclined to preclude government from investing in things that might not result in immediate rewards. In fact I'd be less inclined to support such things like subsidizing house prices and the direct dividends of greater tax revenues.

is building up his frequent flier miles, it seems. Nikkei is up over a hundred points.

One of these days Elmo-San is going to have natto for lunch and the results will be horrendous.

A little moderately on-topic humor from The Onion:
I Wasn't Going To Buy This House Until I Saw The Realtor's Headshot On The Sign | The Onion - America's Finest News Source

some investor guy wrote:

There are many fine investments of govt money. And yes, keeping housing prices out of line is not one of them.

I think it should be properly referred to as "our" money.

And yes, I want my darned space elevator.

these borrowers would pay a maximum of 10 percent of their discretionary income in loan repayments and would have their remaining debt forgiven after 20 years.
--Rob Dawg

These borrowers would pay a maximum of 10 percent of their unemployment checks in loan repayments and would have their remaining debt forgiven after 20 years.

Made that more realistic for ya.

mmmm... bacon.... needs... icon!! is an overloaded operator

ResistanceIsFeudal wrote:

mmmm... bacon.... needs... icon!! is an overloaded operator

Pressed hams?

Oxtail wrote:

why anyone still has money in money market funds

Simple - Bonds are at a peak, and stocks are mushy... Buy low, sell high... Sell some bonds and put the proceeds in a MMF and you will avoid the drop in bonds and capture the rising interest rate when rates do rise... It's the timing that is the unknown - if you sell today and rates dont rise for 2 years, you would give up about 8% in interest... You sell MMF's and buy bonds when rates are at a peak, not at a low...

I follow an asset allocation strategy and it does work, but when you are truly an investor you become part of the economy - and when the economy does badly, so do you... BUT I think the only thing that would make me really sell out of stocks would be a drastic drop in the global population. As long as all the people are still here, somehow there will be trade and profits.... Not to mention that people inherently want to improve their conditions, and therefore create economic growth... Now if we could just get these damn kids to put away the electronic toys and start developing some skills so they can work and support us....

Heck, our company's retirement fund only has about a dozen options, and most of those appear to be choices over how fast you want to lose your money. Sometimes a MMF is the best chance for "return of capital".

I'm going to go have some Bacon Dreamz.

TJ and The Bear wrote:

STOP! You're making me hungry!!!

YouTube - Jim Gaffigan - Bacon - KING BABY - CD and DVD Available NOW!

The ruthless Red Guards turned loose by him on his unhappy countrymen are a sad recreation of Hitler's Jackboots and Mussolini's Blackshirts.
--YLSP

It's not only sad recreation, it's pretty sick, too.

ShadowInventory wrote:

I think the only thing that would make me really sell out of stocks would be a drastic drop in the global population. As long as all the people are still here, somehow there will be trade and profits....

I actually agree with you, SI. My concern is that I want to see some significant changes in the financial system before I'm comfortable with a future growth scenario. As it stands, I think we're in the midst of a high-speed economic wobble, and that the first wobble occured in 2000. The second in 2008. The third?

I'm pretty sure the frequency will increase until change is finally forced.

This seems fitting:

Waiting For Something To Turn Up: Europe’s Looming Pensions-based Sovereign Debt Crisis - Credit Writedowns

... Regarding the first, as Willem Buiter, now chief economist at Citi has pointed out, more than 40 per cent of global GDP is currently being produced in countries (overwhelmingly advanced economies) running fiscal deficits of 10 per cent of GDP or more. Over most of the last 30 years, this level fluctuated in the 0-5 per cent range and was dominated by debt form emerging economies. So the crisis marks a watershed, from which there will likely be no turning back, and in many ways could not have come at a worse moment for those countries who still have to undertake substantial pension reform to put their nation finances on a solid footing when faced with the unprecedented ageing which lies ahead. ...

ResistanceIsFeudal wrote:

"Turning javanese, I think I'm turning javanese! I really think so."

For your late night dancing and dining pleasure, Old school:

YouTube - Majalengka Tari jaipongan

Or the bastardized version hipped up:

YouTube - jaipongan dermayu

BTW poic's natto made me hungry but I've already had lunch . . . .

CIT

The U.S. company said in a regulatory filing that it would not return to profitability in 2010 under regular accounting rules. But it added that new, post-bankruptcy accounting measures would bring it back into the black this year.

CIT, which last month named John Thain its new chief executive, reported net income of $3.2 billion in the fourth quarter under the post-bankruptcy accounting, known as Fresh Start Accounting, or FSA.

Odd how the CNBC article could just as well have been from the Onion.

CIT Earnings: CIT Group Posts $1 Billion Quarterly Loss - CNBC 
Laugh or cry?

Counterpointer wrote:

What fresh hell lurks beneath the seeming pastoral whimsy of Fresh Start Accounting??

Maybe a little cat poo? Got to mask those noxious odors somehow. And you'll notice it's Premium Clumping; that's gotta count for something.

Fresh Step Cat Litter
404 - File or directory not found. Which Arm & Hammer Cat Litter is Right For Your Cat? Learn More Now!

Hey look, Puerto Rico's time has come!

FDIC Seeks Buyers for Three Puerto Rican Banks - WSJ.com

Bring on BFF.

C

Doh. /finally reads previous daytime EST posts,sees CR has put it up already.

Well, it's Wednesday evening here, Friday feels close.

I will cue up my "bank failure at the sound of the coqui" link for the weekend.

C

Counterpointer wrote:

Is that not a joke?

sadly, no

down is up, right is wrong

we deem thee passed, profitable, and politically correct

ShadowInventory wrote:

I have been in Phoenix since Jan 1 and traffic is heavy, shops are full of people, restaurants have long waits . . .

I don't see anything in our current circumstances which precludes a busy downtown Phoenix. Some of the rhetoric here gets overheated - such that nothing less than a blasted heath seems to suffice or satisfy. But the country is not experiencing some of the most disruptive features of GD1. Bank closings and the dust bowl come to mind.

I understand the irritation brought on when comments point to evidence of resilience or normalcy, whatever that may be, not least because I generally feel it myself when someone implies the situation here is no longer serious and fragile. Does anyone here not imagine that much of life proceeds, however anxiously, along fairly routine lines wherever that's possible?

So how are the states going to pay for the UE benefits?
UE at those levels is going to kill state and county budgets, including loss of tax revenue for years. Did they add in the projected job losses from that?

This is moving from a national level explosion to a series of smaller state level ones. The fed has far less power there to manipulate the numbers.

If the country is a house, then the roof was torn off and replaced with a TARP. To bad each room (state), has structural problems also. Tough to keep the roof up off the ground when the support under it crumbles.

The fed animate the dead and brighten their faces with accounto makeup. A lot harder to do at the state level. The US is not the federal government and big companies exclusively.

YLSP wrote:

it is why we are investing now in the industries of the future.

I guess the must be the industries of the future, 'cause that's where we've been investing.

Geithner, Orzag, Romer: "We do not expect substantial further declines in unemployment this year"

Excuse my Language CR, but what a bunch of fucking liars case in point

March 17 , 2010

Sonoma County Ca - Anticipates 87 Layoffs

The Alton school District - 48

The City of Sheridan - 10

Oregon School District - 10

Well Fargo Sacramento - Merging Call Centers = 415 Layoffs

March 16 , 2010

IGN - Layoffs in All Division, Unknown Number

Southern Hancock Schools - 100

Mercy Hospital in Portland Maine - 58

Sacramento Regional Transit District - Plans 194

Mattingly Foods - To Start Layoffs in May

The Cumberland / North Yarmouth school district - 25

Sykes Enterprises Inc - 100

United Airlines Denver Int. Airport - 138

Oil Giant Shell - 1,000 More By end 2011

ThyssenKrupp Elevator in Walnut Miss. - 50

Hillcrest and MacLaren youth correctional facilities - At Least 10

The Chicago Public Schools - Outlines 1,100 Possible Cuts

Adams 12 Five Star Schools in Colorado - 188 Next Year

The Grand Blanc School District Michigan - 25

Lennox School District - 49 Job Cut Notices

Brentwood, Long Island School District - 260 Layoffs Possible

Elgin Ill. School District - 1,000

March 15 , 2010

Update: Omaha Public Schools - Layoffs Likely

The Aledo school district - 30 to 40 Job Cuts, and Salary Cuts

San Gabriel School District Ca - 300 Layoff Notices Today

Gate Concrete Products Co - Plans 115 by End of May

HealthNow New York Inc in Buffalo - 30

Update: California Teachers Get - 22,000 Layoff Notices

UnitedHealth Group in Tamarac - 191

Allied Capital Corporation in DC - 91

The Alabama court system - 100

BAE Systems - Additional 150 to 200

Devon Energy Corp. Begin Houston Division Layoffs - 11

Kutztown University - Layoffs Possible

ESAB Welding of Florence - 35

UBS Wealth Management - 40

Populous - 30 Workers Put on Furlough

National Steel Cars - 1,100 Recalled Workers Could Face Layoffs in May

Update: La Marque school district - Now 61

Allendale Public Schools - 5 More on Notice

Update: City of Toledo - 310 Layoff Notices Today

The Blue Ridge School District - Possibly 12 , and Many Program Cuts

City of Flint Michigan - 57

Daily Job Cuts - Layoff News , Job Layoffs 2009 , Bankruptcy, Store closings and other Business Economy News

If and when extensions run out, don't the unemployed just become the un? That could keep levels steady.

OT- The FDIC is opening a satellite office in Schaumburg that will accommodate up to 500 temporary staffers and contractors who will help manage receiverships and liquidate assets from failed Midwest banks.

Once the office is fully staffed, they'll "make their first big move," Barr said.

"That will likely come soon and they'll get real serious real fast," he said.**

MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease, Mortgage Rates Fall

Translation: we are clueless. What are we doing here anyway?