Shopping at Amazon?
Wait! If you click on the Amazon banner link at the top of the page first, HCN will get a percentage of anything you purchase for 24 hours!
Open predictions
Our local book authors
User login
Who's online
There are currently 23 members and 155 guests online.
Recent Recommendations
Translation: We will turn the radio up to mask the screams.
C'mon CR, go out on a limb!
Thread Music : The Emperor's New Clothes : Sinead. Irish and crazy (per Spouse of SPOOL) YouTube - Sinead O'Connor - The Emperor's New Clothes
Well, at least they got it right that there was "some spillover" from housing into other components of spending.
So what the hell happened to Harley today? Leveraged buy out my happy bottom (My grandmother's named Gladys, and Grandpa said happy bottoms' better in polite company), who's stirring the pot here?
I understand that they usually bet on the Seattle Mariners, too.
FWIW, the webguys are in process of making changes to my site and goofed by putting my photo on the homepage. Yeah, I'm not a handsome 30-something with munchkins crawling on me.
So yeah, let's start the project at 5:30 on a weeknight, hit a question and email me and then turn out the lights until tomorrow morning.
That works for me.
So if you're curious what I look like - and I'm not as glamourous as CK - here I am.
Practical Dad
I have an idea: Since they are such good prognosticators, let's put them in charge of the money supply.
I have wondered whether they use chicken guts in these forecasts or gave that practice up in deference to PETA.
So the 43's a lie also?
Dickeylee wrote:
1943?
Feckless Ness, I only caught the last few minutes. They will re air her show at 10 central time.
homedad43
at first i thought i was looking in the mirror, same do!
but alas you are a younger man than i
nice site
What delicious Greenspanery from 20 years ago, thanks!
Awww homedad, I think I'm in love if we weren't both married
Seriously, there is nothing sexier than a man that is willing to shoulder his load of housework/child rearing. Awesome and Kudos to you sir.
Yep, the 43's lie. That's meant "for three". Y'all gotta learn how to talk right.
First time I saw the headshot, I thought "Good Christ, I look like Limbaugh!" With the now-present mustache, I look more like a mid-aged Wilford Brimley.
mock turtle wrote:
me too. holy shit, do we all look alike?
So just how much dough do those diabetes commercials bring in anyway?
Thank you, CK.
I've had a mustache for most of my adult life but have periodically shorn it for a break. My wife doesn't care for it and I've decided that if I'm gonna kiss her, I have to get a mustache condom.
I think every economist should be required to manage his own retirement portfolio. Any time he publishes something, gives a public speech or an interview on television, he is required to disclose his 1-, 2-,5-,10-year and lifetime annual returns net of all fees.
They don't bring in enough, trust me. Personally, I'm partial to the scooter commercials with the folks doing this scooter ballet.
homedad43 wrote:
What part of "familyblogfamilyblog" do you people not understand!
Jonathan wrote:
No, I look like this;
Having a conversation with the thirteen year-old the other week and talking about the financial sector driving the economy so that we produce very little of value anymore. Decided that best to rename it the US Econdomy.
homedad43 wrote:
I have been getting that from more and more vendors recently. And since I have people working long shifts and late hours, it really rubs me the wrong way.
On the pic:
OK, now I feel old. Nice shot, though.
Ahh. Claude Rains!
CR: "Although my current view is for sluggish and choppy growth in 2010, there are still some downside risks - especially in the 2nd half of the year. Right now I think Q1 GDP growth will be sluggish, and the impact from the stimulus will fade over the year. "
CR, YOU NEVER PREDICT ANYTHING BUT A MILD CHANGE. Someday, you're gonna be right.
CR, you call for sluggish growth the rest of the year. What are your projections for the unemployment rate?
Slumdog wrote:
MiTurn wrote:
Our UE dial goes to 11!
OT: US wages.
Finally, they're dropping like a stone.
Example: one of my graphic artists bills $60/hour. they just took a 40 hr / week job because their license to steal free lance was revoked. And how much are they earning in So Cal, right next to Rob Dawg's house?
Guess. $30? $20?
$15?
$14 plus a health care pkg.
At $14, this man is a gift. And he took the job because the last place he interviewed offered $12!! This guy is a minor talent in the graphics arts game, but still the employers both said, "You're a dime a dozen. Here's the bone. Want it? Great. Don't want it? Take a hike."
He'll still moonlight for me. And I thought I was stealing talent.
The impact as this low wage wave builds will be stupendously deflationary. But that makes the dollar weak and gold strong.
A friend of a friend is one of the 22,000 teachers laid off in California, pretty distraught to say the least...
Our country is all about short-term monetary investments, and the hell with long-term investments in our children~
How did it go so very wrong?
I actually like these guys, so I shouldn't complain. It's just been a long day with major combat about math homework and smartassing the old man.
The thing here is that when I get pushed, I push back and it gets occasionally unpleasant. Honestly, I can't watch shows like "Supernanny" because it never appears to be okay to raise the voice with the kids. I'm afraid that when I croak, they'll mark my tombstone with the epitaph "Here lies Ol' Yeller".
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
We tried to be everything to everyone and ended up being nothing to most?
yagij wrote:
What are your projections for the unemployment rate?
Our UE dial goes to 11!
IMO, with skilled labor being paid undocumented, unskilled worker rates (I paid day-laborer stone masons $15/hour 1 year ago), and less, I don't think UE will grow. What will happen is that the overall income level will drop and at cheap labor prices, more companies will take them on as candy treats. Being overqualified nowadays is having an edge for the low wage jobs now opening up.
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
Yup ... it never ceases to blow my mind how public education is always one of the first 'services' to get trimmed.
Like your site, homedad, and being a kindred spirit with a similar mission, I also take practical advice from it!
As far as the photo goes, if commentariat were all to throw unidentified pix of our mugs into a digital pile for general perusal and guesswork, there would be few direct hits. Excepting for the outed, of course!
Myself, I resemble an Airedale.
Here's Mish and Faber from a couple of days ago:
YouTube - We're Doomed and Washington Can't Do Anything About It - Marc Faber and Mish Shedlock
JD -
The local rag ran a major story - including two full interior pages - on the teacher pension wave that's getting ready to hit PA. I looked at the headline and actually thought of Dawg's predictions about three years ago.
PA Teacher pensions are required by law to be brought up to full funding in event of market loss. In other local news:
Local HS announces that they'll pay $750K to refurbish their HS pool
Local state university announces a 6.5% room/board increase next year and a large student activities fee hike to help pay for the new Student Activities Center (approved in a student referendum in 2007)
HT to Dawg.
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
You know the answer to that question. Teacher layoffs will lead to enhanced support for tax increases at the subsequent elections.
That's as short-term as it gets, with a parcel tax for schools here in June, and heaven knows what in November. They are even trying to move the parcel tax to a special mail-in ballot to improve its chances. The pols still haven't got past the point of acknowledging that the well is dry.
Thx but quite some time ago I gave up reading pablum
"Myself, I resemble an Airedale."
LOL.
God willing, the place will be fixed tomorrow and the paint cans put away.
Glad that there's something of value there. That's the premise...
Mish, a financial planner who gets his commission if you make money or not. A whole lot of not the last decade!
sm_landlord wrote:
which is when you begin to miss your water.
We are now paying more in tuition (for 2) than in rent. It has to work, since there's no public school equiv in our language.
FOMC - O for obfuscation.
homedad43 wrote:
Having just checked returned homework, I can assure you it's nice to know I'm not the only one doing it.
Sometimes we take re-tests at home as well.
Re Peak Oil...
USGS Release: 3 to 4.3 Billion Barrels of Technically Recoverable Oil Assessed in North Dakota and Montana’s Bakken Formation–25 Times More Than 1995 Estimate– (4/10/2008 2:25:36 PM)
Peak Oil sounds like something that comes from the gorebull crowd...
Anak wrote:
A friend is doing home schooling for two daughters. Not for everyone, but it can work.
*A friend of a friend is one of the 22,000 teachers laid off in California, pretty distraught to say the least...
Our country is all about short-term monetary investments, and the hell with long-term investments in our children*
A simple question: Folks procreate and the need for education is a given for the little ones. How many folks save, put money aside, pay hard and soft costs to raise their offspring?
Breeding is not a right. (Sorry to be forward, but this gets my goat!)
Barley wrote:
It's a biological imperative. Setting money aside is not.
ShadowInventory wrote:
I think the key term there is 'technically recoverable'.
My forecasts.
ShadowInventory wrote:
I get up there pretty often - here is what I hear :
The article is from 2008 - there was a lot of buzz in No Dak when it first came out - a cold wet blanket of reality has since fallen over the topic. There will be development - over time - and it is already starting [part of No Dak's job growth]... but I wouldn't look to this as proof Peak Oil isn't. There might be other indicators but this isn't one of them.
It's a biological imperative. Setting money aside is not
Maybe true. But those of little faith take hold:
On the Origin of Species
Barley wrote:
the hard costs are going to vary with the family situation, but the soft costs are, well, let's just say I have yet to see their limit. And few parents realize what they're up to on that score.
The degree to which a healthy society decides to collectivize the hard costs is of course another can of nightcrawlers.
Sometimes we take re-tests at home as well.
I understand. Today's blowback was because one of them doesn't get math - and I understand that since I struggled as well - but doesn't want to do the additional problems that I come up with. A friggin' C is fine.
I'll settle for a friggin' C after the extra effort is made.
Keep it up and good for you.
the US middle class is "technically recoverable" as well. Good luck with that.
Interesting list.
OK, not out on a limb there.
some investor guy wrote:
LOL ! ! !
Bubblisimo Gerkinov wrote:
It's a term of art not flowery language. Best estimate of what can be extracted with current technology.
12th Percentile wrote:
Are burger flippers considered the middle class?
OT Japan: The GDP deflator, a key gauge of deflation, was revised to a 2.8% year-on-year decline, compared with an initially reported decline of 3.0%, which some analysts said added pressure to the Bank of Japan to adopt more liquidity-boosting steps to counter deflation.
Bank of Japan may double lending program - MarketWatch
ShadowInventory wrote:
USGS Release: 3 to 4.3 Billion Barrels of Technically Recoverable Oil Assessed in North Dakota and Montana’s Bakken Formation–25 Times More Than 1995 Estimate– (4/10/2008 2:25:36 PM)
Peak Oil sounds like something that comes from the gorebull crowd...
Well, you gored me, so I can't not respond. At 21 million barrels per day U.S. demand, that would last how long? It might just about make up for Cantarell's decline, but I'd rather wait 10 years for the Brazilian sub-salt deep sea reserves to start producing before you buy a Hummer.
Not that I'm not happy for this Bakken, and there have been similar reserves "recovered" in the Marcellus, the Haynesworth, and the Barnett shale formations (the latter near my parents' home). But you're smoking something real good if you think this is "the answer" to peak oil.
I'll take it, but won't trade it for the nat gas in these formations; that's a lot more significant than the oil.
Yea well it cost me 9$ for a beer last night. They could use some deflation in some areas...
robj wrote:
Absolutely - that's what's powering the Wyoming economy right now [from what I hear - don't get out there much at all].
Thanks for the writeup some investor guy.
I'm working with my daughter on math, and it has been a tough go, but slowly bearing fruit:
Remember that there's always enough information to solve the problem, and there may be too much information.
Always read the problem carefully.
Think of various strategies to solve the problem. If you have two, use both.
Calculate and check the calculation.
See if the answer makes sense next to the information given.....
Still, some children are going to acquire the knack later than others. I try to re-inforce as we cook, schedule, drive, etc.
nades wrote:
Bye bye BKK, hello Japan?
My Ides of March prediction:
Within 16 months, we will be at the obvious beginning of a major high mortality H1N1 flu pandemic.
That's June of 2011.
What's happening around the world with Tamiflu resistance, and two new appearances of 1918's cooler temperature transmission polymorphism and the lung damaging polymorphism, this is now a catastrophe in formation.
The societal consequences are all well known. Mark that calendar, June 2011. it may be a bit earlier, but I think it needs more mass to start really doing the ruinous dance. .
Slumdog wrote:
I know. They are my clients and they can't afford me anymore either.
Better and more transparent than Greenspan /= acceptable.
End the Fed ponzi.
Mark that calendar, June 2011.
Wow, slumdog. You sure do like to go out on limbs.
nades wrote:
Consider it an anti-alcoholism plan.
Wife suggested years ago that I consider homeschooling. Laughed in her face. Unless it's a complete wreck, I'd rather work within the school system and let the kids learn the social side of the equation. School's as much about learning how to handle people and situations as it is schoolwork.
As eldest says, "it's not a fight unless there's a knife."
And we're in a semi-rural setting.
As to buying gold, we've got the local pawn broker and multiple jewelers offering to pay cash for gold. Signs all over the place and there's some refiner in town to buy PM from folks.
I doubt that they'd offer what I paid.
Yea and my god its cold....
Reading the econ news makes me think I'll be checking back in to cheap BKK when I cant find a job state side....
Breeding is not a right.
it's a privilege.
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
It went very wrong on education in many places, including CA. In many places, money was merely thrown at the problem. It is no secret that LAUSD can waste money on an epic scale.
Ask your friend this. If he was given $7600 per student, could he do better than the district he works for? In CA, the answer is almost always yes.
homedad43 wrote:
Rob Dawg wrote:
RD, this labor-price drop is dramatic. I am stunned.
I just hired a skilled outbound telemarketer, very well matched for my biz, at $14 plus some bene's.
I have no idea how these people can survive. She has a fiancee and they live together and he works.
Housing prices must collapse as these were lower middle class people, and now they're gonna be locked into poverty wages for a long time.
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
Let me put this another way. If given 20 students and $150,000 a year, how well do you think you could do?
Mark that calendar, June 2011.
At least I won't have to worry about getting a table, eh?
The Big Picture » Blog Archive » Long Term Growth in US Labor Force (some distant sunshine for you doomers...)
...................
JP - yep it worked for me... one and I was done....
Outsider wrote:
Wow, slumdog. You sure do like to go out on limbs.
Outsider, if I didn't assess probabilities, I'd never do jack. I measure 'em all the time. And I'm good at the game. I only take the highest probability bets.
Recombinomics.com summarizes what's out there in the world of flu, in the What's New section. Niman's seeing the trend and he's been very insightful about trendspotting, based on his homologous recombination logic.
I do NOT suggest buying food at this time. I do suggest getting all the non-comestibles identified and a goodly part of them bought and stored. Do get facemasks and gloves and alcohol hand cleaner. The rest can get very elaborate. But this pandemic which is now ignored by all of us has not truly begun. This is a game of nature picking a lock. And the tumblers now are marked with the high virulence markers. It's a matter of their falling into place. I trust nature to pull that off within a year and a half.
homedad43 wrote:
At least I won't have to worry about getting a table, eh?
HD, all furniture will be free.
nades wrote:
Can't wait to see the tab for this week - for five people in Las Vegas. The room rates are down, but everything else is up.
At the restaurant last night, there was a bottle on the wine list for $350 that I bought from the winery for $50.
some investor guy wrote:
There's lot of sneaky accounting. We spend whole lot more than $7600 per student. Read this: A Modest Proposal for Saving Our Schools
Rob Dawg wrote:
Is McClintock in the running for vice-emperor of Dawgifornia?
On a black humor level, if we do have a pandemic the monetary velocity will drop to zero.
A financial singularity event. Cool.
sm_landlord wrote:
Minister without Portfolio and Ambassador to Cascadia.
And the amazing part of all of it is that I really do have some masks - including smaller ones for kids - and gloves stowed away.
Also hand sanitizers.
Yowza.
As far as the free furniture, my wife will want to shove as much as possible in our garage.
From RD's linked McClintock:
"We have all seen the pictures of filthy bathrooms, leaky roofs, peeling paint and crumbling plaster to which our children have been condemned. I propose that we rescue them from this squalor by leasing out luxury commercial office space. Our school will need 4,800 square feet for five classrooms (the sixth class is gym). At $33 per foot, an annual lease will cost $158,400.
This will provide executive washrooms, around-the-clock janitorial service, wall-to-wall carpeting, utilities and music in the elevators. We’ll also need new desks to preserve the professional ambiance."
.
CRE meltdown, meet the children!
I actually teach at a branch campus carved out of two floors of a commercial/residential mixed uber-building. The main campus is for the tenured, but I don't much care. Nice a/c, fast elevators.
To add some counter weight to the gloom - I visited the machine shop I work with near Chicago yesterday... we had a plant visit from our customer - they have so many new projects going with us they were worried we would fail. The machine shop was in the process of adding a big new CNC horizontal machining centers - w/ pallet changers - add a lot of capacity. That was one of the reasons the commodity manager for this customer was in - to see it & make sure we were adequately staffing up.
They had a lot of lay offs last year so I asked them [wasn't sure myself] how many more until we add them all back - they said we've done that, there were a few they wouldn't add back [issues] but other than that they are now fully staffed up to pre-recession levels out in the shop - two full shifts. From now on they have to hire new. Only two openings right now - but that might change if some of the other projects launch.
Also - we've completely sold out the new machine they were putting in - both shifts - unless forecasts collapse again its booked solid for the foreseeable future.
Unbelievable really.
On the other hand much of that work we've received came as a result of other companies failing - so on a national aggregate scale the whole region or country isn't back to where it was. But some things are improving. Some places.
Be about 6-8 month before I see reasonable compensation form this work but I'm already getting some checks. None too soon either.
Slumdog wrote:
Should not return be a function of that calculation?
df - car parts right? for a american car company or forgein? (might I ask)
Rob Dawg wrote:
McClintock is like having a slightly more mainstream version of Ron Paul. He leaves out a few things like transportation, but his general point is good. I have seen the massive wastes of money at places like LAUSD. I've also seen parents really encouraged at the thought of being able to shut down underperforming schools and fire everyone. Frankly, that one can be a bit scary in the wrong hands.
I remember LAUSD being offered a deal in the 1990s where a business was going to donate an entire building for use as a school. It wasn't leased, was in the right area where a school was needed, had a large park next to it, and could be ready in a few months. The District insisted on doing imminent domain, demolishing some houses, and building from scratch. They are still building. There are huge amounts of commercial and office spaces which could be leased and used. LAUSD will manage to complete its construction as the student population is dropping. They will have bond costs for empty buildings.
"he Los Angeles Unified School District is currently engaged in the largest school construction building program in our history. Over the next couple years we will complete the construction of 131 new schools to accommodate explosive growth in our student population. New schools and site expansions will require the acquisition of over 450 acres of land, most of which we have already acquired." LAUSD Facilities Services Division
Maybe we can have a new ballot measure to cut back the construction. There is so much cheap unleased space.
homedad43 wrote:
SARS time in HK had everybody fleeing to the base of Maslow's hierarchy almost overnight. Lasted the better part of a month before day by day things loosened up.
And while it may have met technical definitions of a pandemic, it was centered around only several geo clusters in town.
It was also the canniest time in the last 15 years to buy RE if you could get a meeting.
nades wrote:
Nope - hydraulics & controls for off highway, agricultural machinery, power & utilities equipment - etc. All to world leader tier one supplier to those industries.
One last link b4 turning into a pumpkin:
CORRECTION - - UPDATE 1-$4 bln yanked from U.S. stock funds in February
| Reuters
equities lost in Feb, taxable bonds win big. Guess we're all BBAD after all.
Anak wrote:
Parental involvement is the #1 predictor to educational success.
dryfly wrote:
Just curious. If you think back to 2006, would you have guessed this particular firm would have survived and the ones who are toast wouldn't have?
I have had this experience a number of times. I've left meetings thinking "these guys will never make it". Generally I have been right, but most of the time I've been working at places where I can't short stock.
Thanks... If recessions are suppose to make an economy stronger were going to emerge from this one as the Incredible Hulk. Sounds like a lot of junk was wiped out of that sector and with in even the stronger companies. Now if we could do something about foolish lenders.... Auughhh! ! !
Blackhalo wrote:
Odd. My parents never helped me. I didn't think it made sense. I was the student.
I'll bet that a two parent family who are themselves educated is a very good predictor.
Question for you Dryfly.
Questioning value of prototypical liberal arts degree given the debtload and future income to service such. If there is the need for the technical folks - machinists and the likes with which you work in these companies - what's the standard training/educational route to get there? (And please don't say University of Phoenix...)
Thanks
From my blog earlier today.
LATimes: CalSTRS' $130-billion investment portfolio lost more than a quarter of its value in the recent recession. The projected shortfall at the state's second-largest public pension fund ballooned to $43 billion by last June.
"There's no doubt about it -- we need to come up with a new financial plan," Ehnes said.
The 97-year-old pension plan must ask the state Legislature, the governor and taxpayers for billions of dollars. Getting that money -- even with an expected massive lobbying campaign and a bruising political battle -- is no sure thing.
Give more money to hedge funds... Thats the anwser! ! ! //snark off
.................
OSTK: Options for Overstock.com, Inc. - Yahoo! Finance
nades wrote:
I was getting a loan prequalfication over the past couple of days. I think that getting back to basics has been interpreted as not using modern technology.
What? They expect us to print out a form and fax it? Snicker. We filled in the pdf, and emailed it, but they still had an assistant KEY IT IN. buwaahhhaaa. I could have done this online with my compuserve account and a dialup connection in 1983, before I was old enough to sign contracts. I mean seriously, we aren't asking for an iphone mortgage app. Hmmmm. There's a thought.
nades wrote:
They already tried that:
But rather than hike contributions from teachers and school districts, CalSTRS officials decided, in the words of Chief Executive Jack Ehnes, to "roll the dice" and bet that a flourishing bull market would make their woes disappear. "There was a 40% chance we could invest our way out of it," Ehnes said recently.
Conjure affirms his November 2009 forecast:
"Recession 2010-Q3"
some investor guy wrote:
Yes - absolutely. Management [owners actually] made the difference. The others were real weak - didn't keep up with process changes in the industry. The guys I work know what they are doing.
None of these firms are too heavily levered.
They asked me to work with them about 2008 - I toured the facility and told them it was an unremarkable facility - why should I work with you... that was about 1PM on a Friday afternoon... we then talked business & strategy for the next 5 hours. I signed on. I didn't get home that night until after midnight [long drive]. Anyway they understood a lot about what needed to get done to make a competitive shop and they were looking for a biz development person who knew how to exploit it. We had some fits and starts but they were pretty relentless & I can be too when I have a client who backs me up like that. So far its worked well and our biggest customer [added - I brought them in] thinks we walk on water.
BTW - the owners I 'work for' are Xers and I'm a boomer - anyone who thinks we aren't in this boat together is either clueless or FOS. These guys are going to make a whole lot of money off this business - a serious amount if they are lucky at all. I'll do okay but they'll do a lot better - they should too - they have skin in the game big time.
There is still some risk - we aren't out of the woods 100%. But looking a lot better than I thought it would be by this time.
Yea I saw something like this a few weeks ago... Just made my eyes roll back in my head... Talk about brain dead... I bet they think that the people that work at hedge funds lost 30% of their personal wealth last go around... I for one dont.... 2/20 all day long baby....
YouTube - Blackie and the Rodeo Kings "Water or Gasoline"
How's the weather? Got a flight in 6 hrs.
dryfly wrote:
The harder you work the luckier you get.
"If" By: Rudyard Kipling
If you can keep your head when all about you
Are losing theirs and blaming it on you;
If you can trust yourself when all men doubt you,
But make allowance for their doubting too;
If you can wait and not be tired by waiting,
Or being lied about, don't deal in lies,
Or being hated, don't give way to hating,
And yet don't look too good, nor talk too wise:
If you can dream -- and not make dreams your master;
If you can think -- and not make thoughts your aim;
If you can meet with Triumph and Disaster
And treat those two imposters just the same;
If you can bear to hear the truth you've spoken
Twisted by knaves to make a trap for fools,
Or watch the things you gave your life to, broken,
And stoop and build 'em up with worn-out tools;
If you can make one heap of all your winnings
And risk it on one turn of pitch-and-toss,
And lose, and start again at your beginnings
And never breathe a word about your loss;
If you can force your heart and nerve and sinew
To serve your turn long after they are gone,
And so hold on when there is nothing in you
Except the Will which says to them: "Hold on!"
If you can talk with crowds and keep your virtue,
Or walk with kings -- nor lose the common touch,
If neither foes nor loving friends can hurt you,
If all men count with you, but none too much;
If you can fill the unforgiving minute
With sixty seconds' worth of distance run --
Yours is the Earth and everything that's in it,
And -- which is more -- you'll be a Man, my son!
homedad43 wrote:
Go to local tech college - they are all over Pennsylvania and very good - very affordable. But the BEST thing is to do some of both - get the tech degree and try to back fill it w/ some traditional college - math business, econ and even some liberal ares [so they can think a little]. Makes them really quite employable.
The best guys we hire generally aren't just button pushers - they need to also 'analyze' what the machine is doing - trouble shoot. Need thinkers to do that. Thinkers who also know how machines work.
mp wrote:
Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis: GDP Contraction Coming In Second Quarter 2010?
Tough even if Q2 is negative, I doubt they'd give it up until the last revision.
Thanks Dawg - that's one of my favorite poems
Dryfly, thanks. Need to flesh out some further notes but have been wondering given the state of things. It's easy to piss at the status quo but figuring out an alternative route isn't easy at all.
On first blush of what you said, daughter of former neighbor now in tech college in upstate PA for avionics. Her dad is a truck-driver but seriously, the scariest guy I've met in terms of hands-on ability to make things work.
Puts me to shame.
G'night folks.
I think its freezing but the rest of Tokyo thinks its fine to keep the doors open to the cafes etc. 9 degrees and kinda sunny.... Bring your winter jacket if you ask me... Then again I've become soft...
homedad - you can email me sometime if you like. I have contacts in PA who could give you better advice.
dryfly wrote:
Nice post! I don't agree with some of what you write, but I sure do like reading it.
homedad43 wrote:
Note to self:
dont. say. anything.
Rob Dawg wrote:
Justice with Michael Sandel - Episode Eight
Rawls argues that even meritocracy—a distributive system that rewards effort—doesn’t go far enough in leveling the playing field because those who are naturally gifted will always get ahead. Furthermore, says Rawls, the naturally gifted can’t claim much credit because their success often depends on factors as arbitrary as birth order. Sandel makes Rawls’s point when he asks the students who were first born in their family to raise their hands.
Harrison Bergeron.
Nice. Actually I'm headed to Las Vegas, but maybe I'll get over there some day.
Interesting comment at ZH:
by threehundredthi...
on Tue, 03/16/2010 - 11:05
267233
The stock markets low voume computer ramping has done nothing to incite confidence in investors.
In truth, the only real buying (covering) has been the covering done by ETF funds that are short (daily ETF's like Direxion funds must cover each day). These funds, with their leverage (often up to 4X) are being used by the market as proxy buyers to "ramp up the market". Thus, the end of day buying sprees (attributed to the PPT).
IN truth, the PPT is simply a ponzi scheme on steroids that was put into place by the streets introduction of leveraged ETF's (that feed the into the buying by purchasing on the long side, and covering by the short side). Notice the multiple leveraged ETF's introduced by the ex- Goldmanites since 2008. There is no market. There is simply illusion. It is a game of 3 card monte'...........a magic trick. A trick financed and paid for by the feeding of the leveraged ETF's.
I always thought it rewarded accomplishment.
The sakura bloom next week. Would be a nice time to be there.
Blackhalo wrote:
On the sidebar of your link, there was a poll question asking if DDavid Letterman making uberillions while teachers made 55,000 a year was just?
Silly question.
Set out to be a TV host and you have a 99.9999999% chance of starvation. Set out to be a teacher and you'll do ok to well (except in California).
1 currency now -yogi wrote:
If at first you don't succeed... What have Timmy, Ben or Hank accomplished? I'm sure they've been, or will be, well rewarded.
LOL... I'm dumb...
ROTFLOL ! ! !
..........
..............
Later all....
RE wrote:
I think we need a steroids icon... I nominate THIS as a 'prototype'...
dryfly wrote:
For real? Photoshop? That's FUed.
CIT Earnings: CIT Group Posts $1 Billion Quarterly Loss - CNBC
Bubblisimo Gerkinov wrote:
To be fair Letterman in his day was phenomenally talented, and I presume deserves his rewards. I doubt a random sampling of teachers would be able to step into his place and succeed as well. Although lately, he just seems to be coasting. Ferguson though, that is sheer brilliance. I wish I could think on my feet that fast.
Bubblisimo Gerkinov wrote:
I sure hope it is Photoshoped!
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
1913, Federal Reserve Act, enough said.
dryfly wrote:
http://lolfed.com/wp-content/uploads/bernanke-roller-derby.jpg
Rob Dawg wrote:
LOL - Disco Ben
Blackhalo wrote:
My point was that with people like Letterman, (substitute actor/athlete of your choice) the question of merit becomes irrelevant. They're like lottery winners.
Hence, I found it pretty funny when the big O compared banksters to movie stars and ball players.
homedad43 wrote:
My eyes; my eyes!
dryfly, wowzers now why did I never quite grow a pair like this...?
I'm sure the Cato Institute as a source will roll some eyes, but...
They Spend WHAT? The Real Cost of Public Schools
Although California is considered a relatively low-spending state when it comes to education, the Los Angeles metro area comes in third place for average real spending in our study.23 The average real per-pupil spending figure of $19,000 is a stunning 90 percent higher than the $10,000 the districts claim to spend. In addition, real public school spending is 127 percent higher than the estimated median private school spending of $8,400.
Los Angeles, spending just over $25,000 per student, is the highest spending of the three LA-area districts we examined (Figure 2). The real spending figure is 151 percent higher than the official figure—the largest gap of any district in this metro area and the largest gap of any district in our study. Beverly Hills comes in second place, spending over $20,500 per student. And Lynwood spends the least of the three, at just over $11,000 per pupil (Table 3).
Rob Dawg wrote:
It's a term of art not flowery language. Best estimate of what can be extracted with current technology, current costs, and current prices.
fixed it for ya.
Shipping Market Worst Since World War II, Fisher Says (Update1) - Bloomberg.com
Credit to Panzner: Financial Armageddon: Wait...What?
TJ and The Bear wrote:
Add to that the $43 billion CalSTRS retirement funding shortfall which isn't included in the Cato study.
I just
Meredith Whitney...
"The asset classes of MBS and Treasurys are priced for a material correction in my opinion," she said. "The only buyers of agency MBS are the Fed and banks so you see how precarious that market is."
"If the Fed pulls back, that's a really big deal... because there's no substitute buyer."
Meredith Whitney - Housing Market Sure to Double-Dip: Whitney - CNBC
homedad43,
If you put on a real angry face you could do a decent Michael Chiklis.
Bubblisimo Gerkinov wrote:
I dunno. Letterman has put in a LOT of years building up an audience beyond an innate talent to make people laugh. And what is the life expectancy for a pro football player? And to those who argue that an average teacher works harder than Letterman... I really doubt it. He has had heart attacks for a reason.
Meanwhile a teacher, while not reaping the vast rewards of Letterman, if they put in a similar amount of years, is due a generous pension, with little risk of being destitute on the streets of LA or NYC, as is the fate of most comedians.
"the average life expectancy for all pro football players, including all positions and backgrounds, is 55 years. Several insurance carriers say it is 51 years."
Suicide by Quarterback - Football Players Dying Young
some investor guy wrote:
My parents bought a complete set of encyclopedia and encouraged us to read them when bored.
At age seven, a sister read about giraffes, wanted one to keep in the backward, had to settle for a stuffed toy giraffe, been disgruntled ever since.
TJ and The Bear wrote:
I'm going to take a guess that the biggest components of the different are retirement and the District's troubled overbuilding program.
Odd how the CNBC article could just as well have been from the Onion.