What sort of tiny percentage of people can afford a 3/2 in a non gang banger section of the City of Angles for $600k nowadays?

Mook wrote:

Cat bounces off ledge...

For Rob:
Comment by Cinco-X from thread 'FOMC Statement: Economic Activity "Continued to strengthen"'

CR wrote:

When the first time homebuyer tax credit ends, I expect the percent of FHA insured loans to decline sharply

Then it won't end. Simple. Congress isn't about to the housing market collapse ahead of the elections.

Your friend would've found it cheaper to buy a ground stake and chain than spending $410k two years ago. I imagine he didn't much money to the table, did he...

Very, very high-priced debt slave

MrBeach wrote:

BTW, I believe today is 14 up days in a row on for the SPY.

Glorious markets only go up!

Friend of mine works for a small local realtor and is now working reduced hours; only one settlement last month. Another acquaintance bought a house and moved her family. She and hubby owned the old house outright with no mortgage - now they've got a sale on contingency and the prospective buyer can't move their house.

The effects of the tax credit have already worn out. A house can really block up a colon.

Cinco-X wrote:

For Rob:
Comment by Cinco-X from thread 'FOMC Statement: Economic Activity "Continued to strengthen"'

Growth industry.

creditcriminalslovetarp wrote:

I closed all positions today...this game has rules that only the ref knows...and his whistle looks like tuba

I'm down $1200 and I'm just lettin' em run. I won't be destitute if they drop another 20%, and I'm not in any rush for the money so I might as well let them ride.

At least I'm screwing my broker by not trading .

MrBeach wrote:

BTW, I believe today is 14 up days in a row on for the SPY.

I make it 13 - the last close to close negative change was Feb 24-25, then Feb 25-26 was positive and every close since then - but I don't count Feb 25 in the total...

13 out of 14....seems I really didn't lose track.

Ciao
MS

The Coming Rebound in Private Credit Demands

March 16, 2010

By Richard Berner | New York

From bust to rebound. Private credit demands are poised to rebound, following a record-setting bust over the past 18 months. The bursting of the housing and credit bubbles promoted massive loan losses that decimated the capital at leveraged lenders, forced deleveraging of intermediaries' balance sheets and promoted the most severe credit crunch in 70 years. In our view, that sudden withdrawal of credit availability, which actually began in the fall of 2007, was the primary factor promoting recession. Conversely, we also believe that the ebbing of the credit crunch has encouraged economic recovery, aided mightily by aggressive policy stimulus. But the sharp decline in credit demands continued in the fourth quarter and has yet to reverse.

The only way I see this happening is if the Fed is actually able to ignite inflationary pressures, and as has been noted, this would require increased employment and pay. I don't see that coming for quite awhile......

I was sitting on a couple losing positions and need time to rethink every trading lesson I've learned....this hot money gig gets all the roadie chicks though!

Feb 2009 UE in SoCal: 10.2
Feb 2010 UE in SoCal: 12.5
Home Sales up slightly Feb 2010

Bizarro world.

LoserBeachBum wrote:

US stock markets are starting to behave like Zimbabwe stock markets during hyperinflation, fewer and fewer down days.

This is my precise concern, LBB. But the tap is closed within a couple of weeks, so we'll see what happens. I took the short positions thinking I'd get ahead of the shut-down, but the lag is longer than expected

So we wait. And weep

LoserBeachBum wrote:

Dow Jones is rising almost as fast as during 1998-2000 and faster than anytime during last 10 years but where is the booming economy

Perhaps the answer is this: what happens to profitability if we reduce everyone's capital funding costs by half? By 75%? By 100%? Clearly the political class isn't going to let big business die (witness the rescue of GM) and the Fed isn't going to raise rates anytime soon.

I want to remind everyone of my brilliant idea from two years back: 0% interest-only loans for everyone. For an extended period. That will save the economy. We're almost there.

Sometimes it's as much fun watching the goings on in the cashino from afar, as opposed to risking anything on shall we say a less than sure bet...

noob goldberg wrote:

But the tap is closed within a couple of weeks, so we'll see what happens. I took the short positions thinking I'd get ahead of the shut-down, but the lag is longer than expected

yeah, you were early. In fact, the exact opposite is happening. The Fed is spending like crazy in the MBS market to use up their allocation before time runs out.

It will just make the fall that much steeper. It will be short lived, but it will be a tradeable opportunity.

words of wisdom....that I too will now embrace.....

Juvenal Delinquent wrote:

Sometimes it's as much fun watching the goings on in the cashino from afar, as opposed to risking anything on shall we say a less than sure bet...

I pulled everything out and sat through most of 2008, including the fall, and I disagree. It's way more fun to have at least a little skin in the game

Just not the life savings!

ghostfaceinvestah wrote:

It will be short lived, but it will be a tradeable opportunity.

What I've noticed is that the times I've made real money are over weekends and overnight, and since I can't trade for large portions of my day it's just as easy to let them ride. I have a feeling that any such drop will be quick and difficult for me to capture, especially because Murphy's law will have me in a day-long meeting and I'll miss the largest part of the move.

I've been to the Rose Valley waterfall many times on the way to Piedra Blanca and Willett Hot Springs, quite a beautiful spot~

Cinco-X wrote:

It's also worth noting that that the Chinese sequestration of USD in their SWF has distorted the market for money; a lot of the monetary inflation that folks worry about has already happened.

I have the opposite problem dealing with the Canadian dollar. The CAD is making huge moves due to confidence in the Canadian banking sector and oil prices, but a strong dollar absolutely devastates Canadian exports, which is where most of the jobs and taxable revenue comes from. The more time the CAD stays above 90 cents, the more long-term damage is done to the economy. That's another element that has to rationalize.

you call those creeks, falls...

come up and play with the big boys....

waterfallswest.com - Display Page

"It's now a question of when will that money begin to flow again in our economy"

I'll answer that with 'never'....since this entire exercise in creating money is doing nothing more than propping balance sheets that were too far out of touch with any sane valuation. Let's face it...we have a system that rewards failure on a scale never before imagined, until that part of it stops we are in a continual loop of failure with the capital to actually expand and produce things of value going to papering over all the mistakes that are not allowed to actually have a consequence............ but we still call it capitalism.

Ciao
MS

charles hugh smith-The Unique Benefits of When Things Fall Apart

this guy is an optimist

Gore Attaches Global Warming as Cause to Last Weekend's Storm in Northeast

He's right.

creditcriminalslovetarp wrote:

come up and play with the big boys....

Mine isn't big, but I stop at a light every day on my way home from work next to this falls:

http://www.robhuntley.ca/Kite-Aerial-Photography/KAP-2008/KAP-2008-59-Hogs-Back-Prince/IMG3355adj/443175114_pPvii-M.jpg

dryfly wrote:

Lotsa herky jerky possible.

When they try to use their undesireable dollars to buy US based assets things get interesting. They'll have all these dollar thingies and we'll have all these assets and resources with dollar tags on them. There's nothing pretty in that.

So Cal is waterfall-poor no doubt...

The Sierra is a whole different story~

simultaneous bailouts

fannie, freddie and the states are feeling lonely.

ShadowInventory wrote:

Global Warming - Gorebull Warming...

Thank you-

In this environment, buying a house with the FHA's money looks like one of the best investment options out there. I still expect house prices to drop further, but... with an FHA loan and a mere 3.5% downpayment, it's like having a very inexpensive Put option on the housing market. If it does drop (like I still think it should), then I just walk away.

Anybody have any advice against this approach?

Working from home today.

Every other commercial on day time TV is for "Check Cashing", "Trade Schools" or "Get Your Money Now"

New Normal looks ugly.

LoserBeachBum wrote:

One thing that almost ensures hyperinflation is the fact public sector workers are mostly Democrats (at least in coastal states). They will open the federal money tap for states regardless what the law says or face workers' wrath and take even more beating this year and 2012. When a government starts paying salaries with shiny new printed money, the mighty inflation beast is released.

It wouldn't have anything to do with the collapse of state services and public universities and an outcry of fedgov't to "do something" -- and not just from state bureaucrats?

I really doubt the average citizen wants to "live within his means" the way many fiscal conservatives favor.

dryfly wrote:

It can be herky jerky too - China Inc. sells US denominated assets [T's & Agency, etc.]... sucking actual dollars into China possession instead of dollar like assets... hugely deflationary impact... then China Inc. converts those actual dollars into something else [euros, RMB]... liberating dollars like crazy... hugely inflationary in dollars & deflationary in the other currency[ies]... then buys something else with that currency - inflating that [price wise. Lotsa herky jerky possible.

In order for the US to continue to buy Chinese goods without us actually having to produce anything (other than debt), the Chinese must make net purchases of USD, which is to say, they must trade us Yuan for our dollars at existing rates. Otherwise, their goods become too expensive when we go onto the open market looking to buy Yuan from folks that have little interest in accumulating USDs.

Bob Dobbs wrote:

I really doubt the average citizen wants to "live within his means" the way many fiscal conservatives favor.

I already live within my means; I want these other folks to live within their means!

The whole troubling thing about the financial markets.
Revelations that GS helped Greece hide their debt via CDS. These revelations weren't made by any whistleblower prior to them becoming public. Some of the revelations we are getting no vis-a-vis Lehman.

We've only seen the very tip of the iceberg...

josap wrote:

1. Buy the cheapest house you can find.
2. You have to live there. So you may not like the cheap house.
3. If the cheap house would rent for the full cost of ownership - less $100.00 per month.
   4.If a decrease in value of 10% to 20% more is something that can be made up before you want to sell it.

Go for it.

• Zero*. You expect your wages to keep up with inflation.

Cinco-X wrote:

I already live within my means; I want these other folks to live within their means!

They're voters. Ain't democracy a bitch?

Note I'm not taking either side here -- just saying that demand for a state bailout won't come simply -- or even mainly -- from politically connected Demo coastal state civil servants. More protest will come from the serviced as well as the servants.

My classic example is rent control -- a bad solution to a problem. But in a place like San Francisco, say, where most people rent, uncontrolled rent increases in the '70s or '80s either meant rent control, or some hundreds of thousands of voters might have to leave the city. And certainly would be poorer if they stayed. Guess what they voted for?

Fiscal restraint is fine -- just convince the average citizen what's in it for him first.

Rob Dawg wrote:

Everybody blogs about the weather, but nobody does anything about it.

I keep telling you guys to fill up the Atlantic and/or Pacific Ocean with volleyballs and there will be no global warming. I put one in there every day.

ShortCourage wrote:

If it does drop (like I still think it should), then I just walk away.

Anybody have any advice against this approach?

Nope, as long as you are willing to exercise the put.

Put options can be priced inexpensively if they are not exercised efficiently.

ac wrote:

I keep telling you guys to fill up the Atlantic and/or Pacific Ocean with volleyballs and there will be no global warming. I put one in there every day.

Wilson!!!

The Trade School commercials make it sound like there'll be dozens of employers beyond eager to hire you, once you've done your power boat engine training course...

Rob Dawg wrote:

Wilson!!!

Yes, and as a happy side effect of my plan Tom Hanks will never have to worry about being stranded alone.

Cinco-X wrote:

Volley balls are expensive; how about old milk jugs? Oh wait! We already did that

The key is you have to leave the milk in there.

That's when the fun game 'find a scapegoat' is played. Maybe the bankers will vote someone off their island and crucify them to placate the howling mob, or maybe they'll start a war to distract us from these minor matters of grand theft.

The Trade School commercials make it sound like there'll be dozens of employers beyond eager to hire you, once you've done your power boat engine training course...

• I love the one with the ding bat girl wearing her slippers and pajamas who advertises for the online college classes. Would you hire that ding-dong? Really?

The problem is, there isn't anybody high enough up top that isn't tainted, all of them are financially culpable...

Cinco-X wrote:

I already live within my means; I want these other folks to live within their means!

.......Hell - I don't care how other people live - I'm not their mother, brother, pastor or caretaker........let 'em test the bounds and effectiveness of "enforcement"......it's our weakest link anyway, and an area in which our Government is required to provide.

Cinco-X wrote:

Don't some of these schools derive much of their income from government programs?

Bingo.

Like Wall*Street, we were able to cash in clouds for 110% of par this year...

Cinco-X wrote:
to distract us from these minor matters of grand theft.
Grand theft? What we are experiencing is a financial heist of generational proportions, about which we can do little to nothing.

RIF,
You can vote for the red-team or the blue-team!

Divorce yourself from the object of their desire, the dollar...

You don't have to play along with their games, so why bother?

Cinco-X wrote:
Don't some of these schools derive much of their income from government programs?
Directly, and of course indirectly through student loans... The fact they're on TeeVee so often is itself a red flag to me. Something good needs advertising, yes, but rarely requires a hard sell and level of repetition worthy of a Top-40's radio station.

Unless things have changed a lot, trade schools derive their income from the finance company with whom they have an affiliation. One of my more radical career changes was the decision to drive tractor trailers. The school guaranteed a loan through a finance company. We had classes in the mornings and driving in the afternoons for 8 weeks. It was the worst work I've ever done, and that includes insulating crawl spaces. I lasted 3 months, and not through any job the school promised to find for me. I went on paying off the loan for 3 years.

Charles Kiting wrote:

You could buy a $10 house and still be underwater.

Understood, which is why I asked the question:
"I wonder what the situation in Detroit is?"
Taxes, insurance, liabilities, etc. could be problematic....

bbartlog wrote:

or maybe they'll start a war to distract us from these minor matters of grand theft

They'll be plenty of counterparties to take the other side of this trade, as they too have populations that they desperately need to distract from their misrule...

Bob Dobbs wrote:

Another Eugene V. Debbs. Much more dangerous.

I'll pass on that; sounds like a real criminal....

Cinco-X wrote:

I'll pass on that; sounds like a real criminal....

He did time, that's for sure.

Edit: But he also said this: "I am not a Labor Leader; I do not want you to follow me or anyone else; if you are looking for a Moses to lead you out of this capitalist wilderness, you will stay right where you are. I would not lead you into the promised land if I could, because if I led you in, some one else would lead you out. You must use your heads as well as your hands, and get yourself out of your present condition."

In this day and age of manufactured attitudes, few statements could be more subversive.

ResistanceIsFeudal wrote:

Thank God for small blessings in this case... no snark.

Agree, except we need to clear the housing market someday.

regarding trade schools (or secondary schools)....If they are stupid enough to believe the admissions people then they deserve exactly what they get....which in most cases is lots of debt and no job. I worked for one and uncovered quite a bit of fraud with regards to the GI money from the military. I told no one about it....gathered the evidence....quit and then mailed it all off to the WASC (accrediting bureau). Almost a year later it was closed based on most of the evidence I sent them. These people (school) had three different sets of books, about 15 non-identifiable bank accounts-at least to someone who wasn't looking for illegal activities. Google the name "master's institute"........but I've said too much...

Ciao
MS

ResistanceIsFeudal wrote:

Hey, you, mac, that's a nice currency you got there. Be a shame if somethin'd happen to it!

I was thinking more along the lines of highway men who "charged" travelers for using a stretch of road that they "maintained", i.e. an early form of tax. Protection was another "service" they might provide caravans, for a fee, of course....

MS wrote:

If they are stupid enough to believe the admissions people then they deserve exactly what they get....which in most cases is lots of debt and no job.

Most people trust teachers, experts, cops (depending on your age). And most people who decide to go to these schools have tried to get a job, can't handle college and don't have the smarts to protect themselves from scams. They are prey.

MS wrote:

Google the name "master's institute"........but I've said too much...

NorthCreek Church - Master's Institute
The Master's Institute / One School - Two Programs
The Master's Institute - Religious School - Minnesota College Directory Network

Not one of these, I presume....

The Stimulus Scam - Antony P. Mueller - Mises Institute

by Antony P. Mueller

The recent improvement of the global economy, with particularly high economic-growth numbers for the United States, is just one more deception in a long series of deceptions that have plagued policy makers and investors. While official statistics register a rising gross domestic product, the long-term production potential of many economies around the world is actually contracting. The present economic expansion is brought about by massive stimulus policies. This kind of economic expansion does not constitute genuine economic growth.

It is quite common for policy makers, economic analysts, and commentators of all kinds to fail to distinguish between economic growth, which enlarges the productive capacity of an economy, and mere expansion of demand. Yet there is a huge difference between the kind of economic growth that comes as a consequence of victories in the battle against scarcity and the kind that is merely an output expansion resulting from increased spending. (More)

Greek Downgrade Threat Lowered by S&P; EU Plans Aid (Update1) - Bloomberg.com

“You’re starting to see some tangible benefits of the austerity measures Greece has put in place,” said Peter Chatwell, a fixed-income strategist at Credit Agricole CIB in London. “They’ve made it through the immediate danger, now Greece needs to stick to what it has planned.”

The yield on Greece’s benchmark 10-year bonds fell 17 basis points to 6.16 percent, the lowest since the budget cuts were adopted on March 5. The gain narrowed the premium investors demand to buy Greek 10-year debt over comparable German bonds to 8 basis points 297 basis points. That’s twice the level in November.

EU finance ministers meeting in Brussels yesterday and today worked out a strategy for emergency loans to Greece in an unprecedented bet by that they can avert a euro crisis by sidestepping the no-bailout rules intended to sustain the 11- year-old currency.

Cinco-X wrote:

More Employers Are Conducting Credit Checks on Job Applicants - WSJ.com

Kinda like debtor's prison, only they don't feed you.

Cinco-X wrote:

WTF!? They must be really worried about the next election

Meet the old boss, same as the new boss

From Colorado : Adams 12 schools to cut $24 million; 185 to lose jobs

Back in November, the Colorado Education Association rumbled plans to court challenge this. We shall see

ghostfaceinvestah wrote:

I have seen a very concerted effort recently by the MSM to scare the peasants into obeying.

That's all it is. Depending on the position, you might be better off hiring the person who needs the job really really bad to pay bills rather than a schmuck like me who can leave for greener pastures any time.

Did anyone not know about the Public Citizen v. Deficit Reduction Act rulings until discussion of Slaughter rule?
It's Constitutional for a bill to not pass both Houses and become law?
As long as the speaker of the House and Senate President pro tempore sign and attest the bill passed both Houses, it can be sent to the President.

Marshall Field, 143 U.S. 672-73. Under
Marshall Field, a bill signed by the leaders of the House and
Senate – an attested “enrolled bill” – establishes that Congress
passed the text included therein “according to the forms of the
Constitution,” and it “should be deemed complete and
unimpeachable.” Id. at 672-73. Recognizing that Marshall
Field’s “enrolled bill rule” prohibited it from questioning the
congressional pedigree of the bill signed by the Speaker and
President pro tempore, the District Court dismissed Public
Citizen’s complaint and denied its motion for summary
judgment. Public Citizen, 451 F. Supp. 2d 109.

ghostfaceinvestah wrote:

I have seen a very concerted effort recently by the MSM to scare the peasants into obeying.

Yep, do not defy TPTB. Do not decrease their cash flow. Do not stop paying your debts, do not see the scams.

How are these buggywhip makers still in business?

Blockbuster Admits Bankruptcy Is A Possibility

ghostfaceinvestah wrote:

Blockbuster Admits Bankruptcy Is A Possibility

Blockbuster has been dead for years. Time to bury the body, way past stinky.

Nope. My conclusion is that these bagholders were simply con men trying to dupe some private entity. A

SPOOL wrote:

Adams 12 schools to cut $24 million; 185 to lose jobs

.........notice (...Middle schools will lose nine campus supervisors — people who patrol hallways and parking lots. High schools will lose 10) no volunteering parents in this position nor any others? Most school systems want NO parental volunteer involvement anymore - apparently it "stifles" their creativity.

Schwarzenegger Will Veto $1.1 Billion Gasoline-Tax Swap Measure - Bloomberg.com

YES!!! Finally - some rational thought!!!

Juvenal Delinquent wrote:

I prefer using "Nuclear Option" when talking about health care, not sure what it means exactly, but it's scary.

"They call him the Sand Spider."
"Why?"
"Probably because it sounds scary."

Rob Dawg wrote:

Feb 2009 UE in SoCal: 10.2
Feb 2010 UE in SoCal: 12.5

Remember that unemployment among houses is now a pandemic. It used to be that houses worked hard and earned lots of money. It was like having an extra wage earner that you lived in. Now, it's like having a slacker relative (or an addict) living with you. It's a constant financial drain.

So why are home sales up? My quote of the day: "More and more people are firing their houses for nonperformance."

Other people are hiring those homes at lower wages, and hoping that they are worth it.

some investor guy wrote:

"More and more people are firing their houses for nonperformance."

By the way, anybody here a cartoonist? This might make a good one.

Cinco-X wrote:

"Probably because it sounds scary."

Scaring the heard into a box canyon is an age old way to an easy kill.

josap wrote:

Blockbuster has been dead for years. Time to bury the body, way past stinky.

there will be no more failures in America, until America itself fails.

It is different in Canada, right?

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis: Canadian Credit Bubble In Pictures

ghostfaceinvestah wrote:

I have seen a very concerted effort recently by the MSM to scare the peasants into obeying

I guess I don't see it as an effort on the part of the MSM--but more of a gullibility on the part of the MSM. But I agree that these sorts of stories seem to dribble out--and they seem to be based on anecdotes. Even Meredith Whitney says that FICO scores are not good measure of mortgage credit risk--why would a FICO score be a good indicator of suitability for a job?

Argentina’s IRSA, YPF May Sell Foreign Debt on Swap (Update2) - BusinessWeek

An interesting development. Looks like they're a little late to the party....

Banker's biggest fear? Actually having to hold credit risk on mortgages.

Industry Worries About 5% MBS Risk Retention in Dodd Bill

Pearl wrote:

why would a FICO score be a good indicator of suitability for a job?

Perhaps it's felt that it's a good indicator of an employees stability at home and their ability to stay focused on the job. Divorces and BK can be real time hogs.

"there will be no more failures in America........"
.

(New York-BSN) "Remington has decided to start manufacturing the typewriter again while Kodak has gone a step further and reinstituted mail-order film processing". Both companies have recently applied for billions in Government start-up funds for anticipated capital improvements.".........developing

some investor guy wrote:

Well, many conservatives point out that there are a small number of people who over their lifetimes use up far more than they contribute in government resources. Typically, these people pay little or nothing in income taxes, moderate amounts in sales taxes, and not much in property taxes. In contrast, they (criminals, addicts, other real or perceived slackers) have huge amounts spent to pay for their treatment, incarceration, etc.
The serious fiscal conservatives often are very happy seeing less spent on such people. Their justifications can come from various directions: some things they believe the govt shouldn't do at all (e.g., they think addicts should just deal with their own problems), other things should be done as cheaply as possible (e.g., keeping people in prison); some things they just don't think work (e.g., public health awareness programs); and sometimes they think certain essential things are just done with far too many people or at salaries which are too high (e.g., school district administration).

Nicely put. I bear no ill will towards these people you describe aside from the fact that as a tax payer, they expect me to fund their BS. Not happy about corporations and in particular banks pulling the same crap...

This so uplifted my day, today:

*At year-end, publicly traded U.S. debt equaled 45% debt. But if you count intra-governmental debt (the Social Security, Medicare, Highway trust funds, to which the federal government issues IOUs), that ratio is up to 88%. Add in the government-supported enterprises such as Fannie and Freddie, and we're up to 124% of GDP. Remember, on Christmas Eve, the $200 billion ceiling on federal backing of GSEs' debt was lifted, so they're now effectively full faith and credit obligations of the U.S. government.

Add in unfunded Social Security and Medicare liabilities, Arnott puts the debt-to-GDP ratio at 428%. He says he doesn't worry about that. "What society can't afford won't get paid." Those "entitlements" likely will be limited to those "who don't have a dime in the bank," that is, the indigent elderly.
*
In Bond Indexing, the Worst is First - Up and Down Wall Street Daily - R. Forsyth - Barrons.com

ShortCourage wrote:

Total payments about $60K/year, including PTI
Equivilant Rental rate is about $37K/year.

Taking into account the tax savings for mortgage interest deduction, I figure the cost of owning is about $42K versus $37K.

Serious question - are you are first time home buyer?

Cause I can tell you, owning a home costs a lot more than PITI, depending on the age of the house.

IMHO, owning a house is a serious pain in the ass. I would never own one if not for the wife. I hate owning a house.

ShortCourage wrote:

I figure the cost of owning is about $42K versus $37K.

Holy crap! Both those figures are more than my wife makes

ghostfaceinvestah wrote:

Cause I can tell you, owning a home costs a lot more than PITI, depending on the age of the house.
IMHO, owning a house is a serious pain in the ass. I would never own one if not for the wife. I hate owning a house.

True dat, except I didn't hate owning all the time, just sometimes...looking to be back in the 'sweet spot' real soon, too!

I hate owning a house.

You are the 3rd male I've heard voice that opinion lately.

I don't think females feel that way. I know I love my house. I hate renting.

But then, who does the upkeep? Usually the male.

pavel.chichikov wrote:

What's the FICO score of a 20 year old applying for a first or second job?

I assume that's a trick question, since we've been informed many times that all those jobs are held by the boomers.

When the 1,000+/- year old structures @ Chaco Canyon in NM were unearthed a century ago or so, the many hundreds of rooms in the buildings were used more as storehouses, than a place to live, sounds like history is repeating itself...

A couple of great books if you are interested in our ancient ancestors:

Anasazi America

House of Rain

Outsider wrote:

You are the 3rd male I've heard voice that opinion lately.
I don't think females feel that way. I know I love my house. I hate renting.
But then, who does the upkeep? Usually the male.

It's a love/hate relationship for me, lol

Juvenal Delinquent wrote:

When the 1,000+/- year old structures @ Chaco Canyon in NM were unearthed a century ago or so, the many hundreds of rooms in the buildings were used more as storehouses, than a place to live, sounds like history is repeating itself...

These people didn't have Walmarts or grocery stores; a very poor comparison. The comment doesn't work as humor either, FWIW

some investor guy,
Aren't fire-stations the closest within a neighborhood (with paramedics?). I'm just asking...

ShadowInventory wrote:
People in financial trouble are more likely to steal from their employer, as are those who have nothing to lose...

This would be pretty if it were true.

I assume that's a trick question, since we've been informed many times that all those jobs are held by the boomers.

Yes, but not that tricky [hairy dog question].

Edit: No comment.

20th month in a row as buyers continued to snap up bargain properties with government-backed mortgages and tax incentives.

Today's bargain is tomorrow's tax payer bailout.

Pearl wrote:

I wonder where these "serious fiscal conservatives" were when Wall Street was funneling trillions upon trillions of dollars into offshore banking accounts and paying their executives tens of millions of dollars in bonuses to do this funneling.

Hedge Funds: Long-Term Contribution Trends | OpenSecrets
Lobbyists: Long-Term Contribution Trends | OpenSecrets
As you can see, these folks don't seem to be conservatives, or at least they don't contribute as though they are. There is no longer a category for "Investment Banks", so we can't see how Goldman Sachs, et al contributed.
Commercial Banks: Long-Term Contribution Trends | OpenSecrets 
Slightly favored the presumably more conservative party.

Pearl wrote:

why would a FICO score be a good indicator of suitability for a job?

I have seen employment screening and underwriting which use these ratings. For insurance, there is a pretty good correlation between FICO and low losses. Organized people who pay bills on time also tend to be the type of people who maintain homes and cars properly, don't drink and drive.

From personal observation, I think that if you did a regression on premarital FICO scores, you would have one of the best predictors of divorce. Hey, maybe I could get a grant!

some investor guy wrote:

Cinco-X [quoted]:
I prefer using "Nuclear Option" when talking about health care, not sure what it means exactly, but it's scary.
Typo. It's supposed to be called the "Unclear option"

Good one

Juvenal Delinquent wrote:

I was talking to a friend today and he was telling me of some friends of his with 750 to 800 FICO scores that can't get loans...

Depends on the loan. Some lenders don't target the high FICO market at all. It also matters whether they are trying to do something like buy a home which is 10X their salary, or start a small business.

some investor guy wrote:

Depends on the loan. Some lenders don't target the high FICO market

Loan sharks target the FUCO market.

some investor guy wrote:

For insurance, there is a pretty good correlation between FICO and low losses.

Do you know the R squared?

Juvenal Delinquent wrote:

These were business loans for existing small businesses

Underendowed gigilos generally can't get loans. It helps reduce competition for me.

ShortCourage wrote:

Relevant numbers that I am facing:
$750K home
5% 30Y Fixed loan
Total payments about $60K/year, including PTI
Equivilant Rental rate is about $37K/year.
Taking into account the tax savings for mortgage interest deduction, I figure the cost of owning is about $42K versus $37K.
So it costs me about $5K to $10K more to own than to rent.
However, if I buy a home from parents, with artificially low property taxes due to Prop 13, then it's pretty close to a wash.

I just happen to have a spreadsheet for CA home purchases with these kinds of variables. I get fairly similar numbers.

The big unknowns for your calculation are future home prices and whether you will need to relocate. Depending on what type of career you have, a foreclosure might or might not have effects on your job choices.

I have a micro, detailed question on foreclosures. For people who are regulated by FINRA, it looks like bankruptcies will turn up on your FINRA record, but foreclosures won't. Anybody here in finance heard of coworkers dumping their home rather than filing BK for this kind of reason?

Cinco-X wrote:

You keep cluttering up a good story with facts!

LOL - sorry.

It's just that it's about as much of a 'solution' as glorifying street gangs & gang bangers as the robin hoods who are going to take down Citi - meanwhile some kid walking home from school to a poor parent that loves him catches a stray from the shoot outs.

dryfly wrote:

LOL - sorry.
It's just that it's about as much of a 'solution' as glorifying street gangs & gang bangers as the robin hoods who are going to take down Citi - meanwhile some kid walking home from school to a poor parent that loves him catches a stray from the shoot outs.

My comment about robber barons was somewhat serious; my comment about Jesse James was just to tweak you, since you'd obviously reacted earlier. No hard feelings, right?

I wonder if Jesse James was as game as Ned?

Juvenal Delinquent wrote:

I wonder if Jesse James was as game as Ned?

Who?

Ned Kelly - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Juvenal Delinquent wrote:

I wonder if Jesse James was as game as Ned?

Doubtful:

"Kelly, dressed in home-made plate metal armour and helmet, was captured and sent to jail. He was hanged for murder at Old Melbourne Gaol in 1880. His daring and notoriety made him an iconic figure in Australian history, folk lore, literature, art and film."

Jesse never got caught. That said, between living in the heat of the Australian bush and that funky beard, I'll bet he was a bit gamier than Jesse...

some investor guy wrote:

There were no curbs to trip on.

Maybe you should invite LLiz.

some investor guy wrote:

I have seen employment screening and underwriting which use these ratings

No doubt that a credit score is used -- particularly for positions which require a security clearance or have a fiduciary component (anything from a bank teller to a stock broker). But the more interesting point is are these articles being used to influence behavior?

Reading the article closely and critically, the WSJ cites one (1) example of a person who didn't get a position because of a background check. That person goes on to say that the only thing bad in their background was poor credit. The WSJ then throws a few statistics out about the use of credit checks ("47% of employers say they check the credit history of applicants for certain positions") and contrasts it with a lower number from 11 years ago. But that statistic from 11 years ago was based on a different / broader question ("Just 25% of employers in 1998 said they regularly or sometimes checked applicants' credit histories").

Had a cited stat been: "A recent study showed that 22% of qualified applicants at Fortune 500 companies were refused employment based on credit history", then it would be convincing.

But what we have is one anecdote some vaguely relevant statistics -- color me tin foil.

ShortCourage wrote:

Sebastian,
Boy this is quite a turnaround...you're telling me I'm crazy for considering the purchase of overpriced assets!

Pearl wrote:

All of those Wall Street folks who just wrecked our economy have gorgeous FICO scores--would you want to hire one of them to, say, manage your finances?

I have not been sufficiently impressed with others in finance to want to have them manage my money.

Outsider wrote:

I don't think females feel that way. I know I love my house. I hate renting.

Ditto that. I need my own little nest, with a bit of garden. A few roses. An old, gnarled apple tree that still blooms.

Cinco-X wrote:

Jesse never got caught.

Unless getting shot doesn't count as getting caught. He was shot and the body turned over by his own gang members for the ransom - his brother Frank was not convicted in Missouri but never extradited for the murders he did in Minnesota. The Youngers all did time in Minnesota prisons - one died there, one committed suicide upon release and the other lived to a reasonably old age upon release. He and Frank James were the only two who were rehabilitated.

First, the pizza man / inverse Joe Kennedy story and now this.

I declare the great recession over, and I'm going 100% equities tomorrow.

thread muzak

YouTube - Warren Zevon & Jackson Browne - Frank & Jesse James

scone, I've got an anecdote that you'll appreciate. I read about how you made sure your house was in ideal condition so that it would sell quickly? One of my neighbors did the same thing, and his house sold in two weeks while a couple of other houses for sale in my neighborhood are languishing.

S.

some investor guy wrote:

The serious fiscal conservatives often are very happy seeing less spent on such people. Their justifications can come from various directions: some things they believe the govt shouldn't do at all (e.g., they think addicts should just deal with their own problems), other things should be done as cheaply as possible (e.g., keeping people in prison); some things they just don't think work (e.g., public health awareness programs); and sometimes they think certain essential things are just done with far too many people or at salaries which are too high (e.g., school district administration).

One problem with some fiscal conservatives is that their fiscal conservativism isn't pure; other ideologies color it. Keeping people in prison isn't "cheaply as possible:" not at $50K a year here in the Great Golden State. But it has law'n order cred (takes lots of green and taxpayers get get shorn), and then you have people like the prison guards' union starting to drive fiscal policy because, well, it's good for them. Leaving addicts to "deal with their problems" -- personal responsibility -- leads to lots more $50K/year annuities for the imprisonment lobby. Not to mention chaos and destruction inflicted on the surrounding populace by the worst of them until they're brought down.

A fiscal conservative may also say he opposes the "nanny state,' but I assure you that if you leave young children alone with a heroin addict mother, a series of brutal or criminal boyfriends, and no guidance to speak of instead of the street, you will likely be preparing more $50K/years subsidies for the greater glory of the prison guards' union. Spending 5 or 10 percent of the million or so that this guy might cost the state over 20 years is a good investment with an even half-effective program.

Now, that said, I don't think there's anything sacred about the structures by which social service are delivered. One big problem with any social service agency is that it does develop its own lobby of employees, politicians, clients, and even suppliers. Thus it is very difficult to remodel, repurpose, or remove an agency or system that is no longer needed -- in that form, at least -- under current conditions. Tail wags dog after a while. Got a lot of that in California. I'd be very much in favor of blowing up and replacing many of these, as long as the needed, societally-constructive services are provided -- and in the end, more effiectively and efficiently.

Distressed Sales: Sacramento as an Example, February Update

Sebastian wrote:

his house sold in two weeks while a couple of other houses for sale in my neighborhood are languishing.

A Keynesian beauty contest.