Winner, winner, chicken dinner. (Tax eaters, not tax payers...)

If we look at the HAMP program stats (see page 6), the median front end DTI (debt to income) before modification was 45%, and the back end DTI was an astounding 76.4%!

Just imagine the characteristics of the borrowers who can't be converted!

This is precisely why real estate is still woefully overvalued...

That is why the graph is labeled "Select". Snark

This is precisely why real estate is still woefully overvalued...

"Front End (PITI & HOA) $1,216.25 $837.86"
By the looks of it, about 30%.

Am I missing something, or is the monthly income shown pretty low?
That's the sort of income I look for in a prospective tenant for a one-bedroom apartment.
Of course their median financial situation shown would certainly be better off than the condition they are in under this mod.

Using rounded numbers.

1100 after debt payments

less utlities, less gas, less car insure, less clothes for the kids, less taxes (25%), less food, less ..... they still can't make it.

sm_landlord wrote:

Am I missing something, or is the monthly income shown pretty low?

I would expect defaults and delinquencies to start at the low end, on properties that were largely overvalued, with no equity.

sm_landlord wrote:

That's the sort of income I look for in a prospective tenant for a one-bedroom apartment.

Scary to think how many people with that level of income qualified to buy a house.

Blackhalo wrote:

I would expect defaults and delinquencies to start at the low end.

Yep, but not until the credit card is maxed out.

Juvenal Delinquent wrote:

This is precisely why real estate is still woefully overvalued...

I was up in Sonoma yesterday, and checked the for sale signs as a drive the country roads through Bennett Valley.
It seems some of the inventory has been taken off the market.
Even Inverness (Pt Reyes) is up for sale in mass. The writers and artist must be bailing.

sportsfan wrote:
Scary to think how many people with that level of income qualified to buy a house.
... AND YOU GET A HOUSE!
... AND YOU GET A HOUSE!
... AND YOU GET A HOUSE!

Im Lovin It!

sportsfan wrote:

Scary to think how many people with that level of income qualified to buy a house.

In Phx metro that would be enough income to buy now. Prices are under $90,000. for some really nice houses in decent areas. You can get cheaper but have to drive to BFE.

Loans that were / are Option Arms had very low required payments.

Nearly 1 in 4 Californians under age 65 had no health insurance last year, according to a new report, as soaring unemployment propelled vast numbers of once-covered workers into the ranks of the uninsured.

The state's uninsured population jumped to 8.2 million in 2009, up from 6.4 million in 2007, marking the highest number over the last decade, investigators from UCLA's Center for Health Policy Research said.

People who were uninsured for part or all of 2009 accounted for 24.3% of California's population under age 65 -- a dramatic increase from 2007 driven largely by Californians who lost employer-sponsored health insurance, particularly over the last year.

About 1 in 4 in California lack health insurance, a UCLA study finds - latimes.com

And of course, Marketwatch thinks that the biggest story of the moment is that Tiger Woods will play in the Masters.

Do a lot of people gamble on golf or something?

Those are scary bad numbers... and as CR said, these are the "good" candidates! But this is still a common situation: my boss just got an offer on his house from a guy who had to have his parents co-sign the loan the DTI is so high even though he is a professional in his mid-30's.

CR wrote:

... 59.8% DTI bank end ratio. Remember this is gross, and is before the $206,76 in payroll taxes and an income taxes). Although this is an improvement, I expect many of these borrowers to redefault.

I suspect this is why your headline references "Permanent" Mods, in quotes.

I am continually amazed, and impressed, by your ability to maintain such masterful understatement in a world where BOLD ITALICIZED CAPS WITH LOTS OF PUNCTUATION!!!! is the norm. I know I, for one, would be locked away in a padded room by now were I in your shoes all these years.

Bravo to you, sir. Star

It sure is a good thing none of the things coming out of what's left are going up like taxes, food, gas...

I suspect the fallout from placing faulty fault on all the redefaults will be fugly.

sm_landlord wrote:

Am I missing something, or is the monthly income shown pretty low?

Really. $32,433/year is not a lot of income. I think that is below the median national household income, and with a family is probably near food stamp territory.

ResistanceIsFeudal wrote:

... AND YOU GET A HOUSE!

It's so ingrained in the American psyche that it can't be refuted with logic:

Fourteen percent of the 1,005 survey respondents say they consider themselves "upper-middle class," 39 percent working class and 45 percent middle class.

....

For most people, homeownership is the benchmark for middle class membership, with 80 percent of ABC's poll respondents saying that owning a home is a "necessary element" of middle class life.

Less Than Half Of Americans Consider Themselves Middle Class: Poll

(linked by Yahoo News earlier this morning.)

Doofus, looking at those numbers I imagine we have redefaults already.

Any chance the FOMC will signal a rate hike in the near term?

Golf is the 'sport' of business, as a lot of grown men hit a little white ball around and then go chase after it...

Juvenal Delinquent wrote:

Nearly 1 in 4 Californians under age 65 had no health insurance last year, according to a new report, as soaring unemployment propelled vast numbers of once-covered workers into the ranks of the uninsured.
The state's uninsured population jumped to 8.2 million in 2009, up from 6.4 million in 2007, marking the highest number over the last decade, investigators from UCLA's Center for Health Policy Research said.
People who were uninsured for part or all of 2009 accounted for 24.3% of California's population under age 65 -- a dramatic increase from 2007 driven largely by Californians who lost employer-sponsored health insurance, particularly over the last year.
About 1 in 4 in California lack health insurance

Speaking of health insurance

New Jersey Woman Wants to Weigh 1,000 Pounds - Nutrition | Physical - FOXNews.com

Simpson, of Old Bridge, N.J., is 42 years old, has two kids and a boyfriend, and she weighs 602 pounds. That's right ... 602 pounds.

She's on a diet, of course, because she has a goal in mind:

She wants to weigh 1,000 pounds

"Loans that were / are Option Arms had very low required payments"

can you fog a mirror?
No? That's alright let's just check your pulse.
Damn my stethoscope must be acting up.
Just sign right here.

These dti's and pti's are the true definition of insanity.....

Where am I...Mars....

who gave these people loans...sorry forgot, we (taxpayers) just gave them another one..

They can't afford sugar, flour and beans...

Juvenal Delinquent wrote:

Golf is the 'sport' of business, as a lot of grown men hit a little white ball around and then go chase after it...

Thus ruining a perfectly good walk.

I have to agree with josap. That income would be plenty to buy a decent home here in Cincinnati. Plenty of decent properties here in 100K range. Of course, that would require people to be realistic when buying a house and we all know that doesn't happen much. Obviously not in California or the Northeast.

Median income by state.

Income - Median Income for 4-Person Families, by State

this is for 2008. I think it is lower now due to un/underemployment.

In the most heady days of subprime, it was difficult (though not impossible, but difficult) to get a loan with a back-end DTI exceeding 55%.

These mods will re-default.

American Idol for fat people. 15 minutes of fame. Snark

sm_landlord wrote:

Thus ruining a perfectly good walk.

FWIW, almost all but the youngins ride the carts. Novice players cause a traffic jam.

Does anyone know if these DTIs are calculated at the modified rate, or the rate after 5 years? I assume the former.

Because if these are at the modified rate, that rate goes away after 5 years.

This program is a disaster.

sportsfan wrote:

FWIW, almost all but the youngins ride the carts. Novice players cause a traffic jam.

Further ruining a perfectly good walk. Can you tell I'm not a golfer? Wink

Mr Slippery wrote:

Really. $32,433/year is not a lot of income. I think that is below the median national household income, and with a family is probably near food stamp territory.

The median household income in the U.S. is around $44,000/year. The poverty line varies with household size. For a household of 3 people (around the average), the poverty line (where you're eligible for food stamps) is $18,310.

$32,433 is a middle class income in the U.S. If it seems poor to you then you may not be middle class.

kactionj wrote:

I have to agree with josap. That income would be plenty to buy a decent home here in Cincinnati.

I'd agree with josap, too, because she made that comment in regard to today's prices.

Unfortunately, these people (permanent mods or rejects) paid much higher prices and I doubt they had much higher incomes then.

You must realize that many of these peoole have unreported or grey market income.

A Very Expensive, Fragrant, and Colorful Floral Bouquet toevery7body for your concern

If you're gonna do something stupid don't hold back...

She should go for the full ton, no half-measures

burnside wrote:

Doofus, looking at those numbers I imagine we have redefaults already.

For those who are striving to live rent/payment free for as long as possible, that would be the likely tactic. Without any near term equity incentive, I fail to see any other outcome.

Mike in Long Island wrote:

Simpson, of Old Bridge, N.J., is 42 years old, has two kids and a boyfriend, and she weighs 602 pounds. That's right ... 602 pounds.

OMFG. That is almost enough to warrant violating the day-time's No one 17 and under admitted rules. I almost want us to decay into a 3rd world banana republic if we have citizens who think that is a worthy goal (sans being a sumo wrestler)

sm_landlord wrote:

Further ruining a perfectly good walk. Can you tell I'm not a golfer?

The irony is that you're not allowed to take a walk on my local course unless you're golfing.

I suspect that rule applies to most courses, but I wouldn't know that from experience.

Maybe she's just emulating Wall*Street and wants to be too big to fail?

ghostfaceinvestah wrote:

Because if these are at the modified rate, that rate goes away after 5 years.

Yep, goes up after 5 years.

Why they think this is so much better than an ARM I have no clue. Truth is, even if you make it through the 5 years, you will default when the payments recast. Long can kick.

Maybe she is mentally ill, and needs help.

Where are the caseworkers from Child Protective Services? This woman is obviously suicidal.

sm_landlord wrote:

Further ruining a perfectly good walk. Can you tell I'm not a golfer?

I've also found that a nice walk, when compared to golfing, usually involves a lot less swearing.

Only :suckers: pay mortgages.

All I ever hear from the talking heads on tv is how higher home prices are good for the economy (ok, banks). I've yet to see anyone mention that lower prices means lower monthly mortgage allowing people enough extra disposable income to actually survive on something other than beanie weanies.

Sportsfan - I completely agree, hence my comment about people being realistic when purchasing a house. I would point out though, that price declines here haven't been as drastic as the harder hit areas. Under 300K, I haven't noticed more than a 10-20% decline which about matches our increase from 2000-2007 or so. Though the high-end market seems to have been hit harder here.

Am I missing something, or is the monthly income shown pretty low?
That's the sort of income I look for in a prospective tenant for a one-bedroom apartment.

Ninja loans are your friend.

I know software engineers who moved from the Bay Area to Dallas, Phoenix, cincinnati etc.

For a monthly mortgage the same amount as rent on a
1 bedroom apartment they bought a 2000-3000 sq foot house.

I made the tour, and got my MPGA card...

Unlike other forms of golf, one must walk the course under MPGA rules~

Vonbek777 wrote:

Maybe she is mentally ill, and needs help.

There is no "maybe" to it.

Here is my recent experience dealing with the HAMP program. After losing my job two years ago, I used credit cards to pay my bills and finish my degree. I now have a job as a high school teacher, which is quite rewarding. I had dug myself such a financial hole, my only way out was through chapter 7 bankruptcy. I struggled to remain current (or close) on my mortgage and contacted my lender about restructuriong through HAMP. I was told that since I was in ch. 7, they could not do anything with my loan. After my discharge, I now can afford my home and current debts (new attitude on life. I desire very little other than a roof over my head, my family, and food in my belly.) My rate, however, is adjustable and currently at 6%.

I contatced my lender about applying for the HAMP program. I collected the considerable paperwork and submitted only to be denied because I have "sufficient funds." I understand! I can afford the current payments. but what happens when the rate adjusts to a very realistic 10% in the next five years? I no longer can come close to paying that note. I'm not looking for a reduction to my principle. I'm looking for the security and peace of mind of knowing my payment will not increase 30%. All I'm looking for is a fixed rate that I can afford, and I need help because no lender will touch me with a refi because of my credit (even though I have over 30% equity in the home.) I'm trying to do the right thing and be proactive with my finances. I contacted my lender to appeal the situation, but was again shot down because my current debt was "insufficient." Perhaps I need to order more cable channels and drive a more expensive car to increase my monthly costs? I was actually told by not only the lender but the HOPE assistance person that my best option was if (when) my rate increases, to miss a few payments and then reapply for the program. I currently am not deemed to be in financial distress, even though I promise you I'm walking a financial tight rope while living quite frugally. I guess there was a two day window that I missed between my bankruptcy and when I was deemed financially sound. How's that for shooting yourself in the foot. I'm sure I am not an isolated case. This kind of bufoonery is happening every day. The conversation abruptly ended when I asked the lender's rep. if he could for a minute put the table and spreadsheet aside and allow common sense and reason to enter the conversation. The rate adjusts in August and locks for another year. Hopefully, it will still be sub-7 range, and I'll be ok another year. Maybe then I'll be able to refi.

Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
Maybe she's just emulating Wall*Street and wants to be too big to fail?
Her attempt to become a human whale will be sponsored by someone... either taxpayers or an insurance risk pool will get that honor. Just an accent mark (or skid mark?) on a broken and corrupt system, but definitely a memorable one!

fed-seen-on-hold-prior-wording-intact: Personal Finance News from Yahoo! Finance

Policy statement's language likely to change in April, analysts say

The Federal Reserve will repeat its pledge that interest rates can remain at historic lows "for an extended period" following its meeting Tuesday, analysts said.

But the oft-repeated language of the policy statement -- closely followed in financial circles -- isn't necessarily expected to remain in place for much longer. Continued positive economic data may serve as the catalyst for Fed officials to end the "extended period" pledge in April, Fed watchers said.

Altering the wording would be a clear signal that the Fed is more sanguine about the economic outlook and believes ultra-low rates are no longer necessary -- and financial markets would react accordingly.

For the time being, however, the Federal Open Market Committee "will stay the course" and not make significant changes to the wording of the statement, economists at Barclays Capital said.

Good morning, LL. Hope today feels a bit brighter. When do you escape to edible food?

ResistanceIsFeudal wrote:

...either taxpayers or an insurance risk pool will get that honor.

To openly want that prize, I say she should be denied all forms of welfare & medical assistance. There is no justifiable reason to support someone who is consuming too much (literally) and not producing nearly enough.
.
The Symbol of Moral Hazard for the '10s.

Winston wrote:

The median household income in the U.S. is around $44,000/year. The poverty line varies with household size. For a household of 3 people (around the average), the poverty line (where you're eligible for food stamps) is $18,310.

Working poor with no safety net earns $18,400.00 a year. But that is higher than UE benifits in many states.

yagij wrote:
There is no justifiable reason to support someone who is consuming too much (literally) and not producing nearly enough.
Uhh.. Wall*Street come to mind?

yagij wrote:

I almost want us to decay into a 3rd world banana republic if we have citizens who think that is a worthy goal (sans being a sumo wrestler)

And if that wasn't bad enough - they are apparently men (and presumably some women?) who pay her a fee to watch her gorge herself on fast food via web cam. :shudder: icon needed or some mind bleach.

Juvenal Delinquent wrote:

Maybe she's just emulating Wall*Street and wants to be too big to fail?

QOTD!

I doubt the japanese whaling ships will waste a harpoon on her...bad sushi is bad sushi...

Wall*Street has a financial overeating problem, and a thin skin.

burnside wrote:

Good morning, LL. Hope today feels a bit brighter. When do you escape to edible food?

Seconded; are you in here somewhere, LL? Hope the morphine is giving you happy dreams...

Mike in Long Island wrote:
And if that wasn't bad enough - they are apparently men (and presumably some women?) who pay her a fee to watch her gorge herself on fast food via web cam. :shudder: icon needed or some mind bleach.
Luckily for them, it only takes one hand to run a mouse. Sick

kactionj wrote:

Under 300K, I haven't noticed more than a 10-20% decline which about matches our increase from 2000-2007 or so. Though the high-end market seems to have been hit harder here.

Being in one of those 'harder hit' areas, the under 300K houses have dropped a good 50% or more.

What passed for 'upper end' insanity, basically tract houses at 2500-2800 sf listed at $425,000 or so are now listed at $162,500. Funny thing is, these are new houses that no one ever bought, but the builders generally finished the tracts anyway.

We had a few $1 million sales, mansions on open water, but even those are more like $750K these days.

sportsfan wrote:

Unfortunately, these people (permanent mods or rejects) paid much higher prices and I doubt they had much higher incomes then.

These people really should have walked. The prin was not reduced, the loan will reset, the equity will not match what is still owed. If you walk you can get a FHA loan in 3 years and buy a house at a much lower price with payments you can afford to make.

ResistanceIsFeudal wrote:

Uhh.. Wall*Street come to mind?

That's what Juvie intimated-

yagij wrote:

To openly want that prize, I say she should be denied all forms of welfare & medical assistance. There is no justifiable reason to support someone who is consuming too much (literally) and not producing nearly enough.

I'm sure she's producing and I'm equally sure that I want no part of it!

creditcriminalslovetarp wrote:

I doubt the japanese whaling ships will waste a harpoon on her...bad sushi is bad sushi...

Great soap..........

ResistanceIsFeudal wrote:

Uhh.. Wall*Street come to mind?

I actually have to give Wall^Street a 2nd place ribbon to this gal, but maybe I'm just itching for a crab battle.
.
I can't stop Wall*Street, and I can't take away her 2 litters either. Sad

josap wrote:

These people really should have walked. The prin was not reduced, the loan will reset, the equity will not match what is still owed. If you walk you can get a FHA loan in 3 years and buy a house at a much lower price with payments you can afford to make.

Exactly. Not to mention, if they defaulted with negative equity, it would take years before they were forced to leave.

Maybe she is 'the' Fat Lady. Perhaps she will grace us with a song before long. Later doomers.

markegg wrote:

I desire very little other than a roof over my head, my family, and food in my belly.

That's a healthy attitude.

Have a good day, folks.

PAYBACK TIME; Corporate Debt Coming Due May Squeeze Credit - NY Times

.....the record number of bonds and loans that were issued to finance those transactions typically come due in five to seven years, said Diane Vazza, head of global fixed-income research at Standard & Poor’s.

In addition, she said, many companies whose debt matured in 2009 and 2010 have been able to extend their loans, but the extra breathing room is only adding to the bill for 2012 and after.

The result is a potential financial doomsday, or what bond analysts call a maturity wall. From $21 billion due this year, junk bonds are set to mature at a rate of $155 billion in 2012, $212 billion in 2013 and $338 billion in 2014.

The credit markets have gradually returned to normal since the financial crisis, particularly in recent months, making more loans available to companies and signaling confidence in the pace of economic recovery. But the issue is whether they can absorb the coming surge in demand for credit.

I say the NY Times is moving in on CRDooooooooooooooom!!!manship, and they better quit it-

fat woman soap....

a fragrance with aroma's like mcdonalds, kentucky fried chicken and taco bell mixed with grape soda....

tomorrow maybe. hub brought me strawberries and wasa cardboard crackers to eat.
and real coffee. said I didn't use too much pain meds--think of spell9ng otherwise!!!

I heard America on the verge of Joining AA, ratings wise.

"I'm America and I have a thinking problem"

Cinco-X wrote:

The result is a potential financial doomsday, or what bond analysts call a maturity wall. From $21 billion due this year, junk bonds are set to mature at a rate of $155 billion in 2012, $212 billion in 2013 and $338 billion in 2014.

What? Are you telling me everyone was kicking the can at the exact same time?

Hoocoodanode.

'Wall Street' sequel an omen of U.S. collapse Paul B. Farrell - MarketWatch

By Paul B. Farrell, MarketWatch

ARROYO GRANDE, Calif. (MarketWatch) -- Yes, Oliver Stone is suddenly America's hottest market timer, as well as the voice of the inner "American Soul," warning investors of a collapse. Remember the Crash of 1987? One-day 23% drop. Happened just before his 1987 "Wall Street" film hit the theaters.

He says he can't predict the future. Don't believe him: Even if he's unaware of his "source," it's stirring again, rising from deep in what Carl Jung would call the "collective unconscious" of the "American Soul," warning us again of a collapse, using Stone as a stock trader's "alert."

Wake up Wall Street: You're getting the biggest market timing signal of 2010!

Seriously, why now? Why after 23 years, did Stone decide to update the message of his famous 1987 movie. Great question: The interviewer was Michael Lewis, former Salomon trader, author of "Liar's Poker," a guy who understands Wall Street's soul.

Stone's answer is in "Greed Never Left," Lewis' Vanity Fair review of Stone's new movie, "Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps." Stone had to think about it: "Why did I go back?" Why? "Because it's important. It's the collapse of capitalism and the collapse of our society. It is. Our way of life is going to change."

The collapse of capitalism? Not just a stock market crash. He's predicting the "collapse of our society." Worse, Stone's predicting: "Our way of life is going to change." Is this really a market-timing signal? Hey, it was in 1987. Will history repeat? The odds say yes..........

noob goldberg wrote:

What? Are you telling me everyone was kicking the can at the exact same time?

That's what the NY Times is saying.....I was just quoting them.

Cinco-X wrote:

'Wall Street' sequel an omen of U.S. collapse Paul B. Farrell - MarketWatch

Farrell's being a real debbie downer lately.

Cinco-X wrote:

That's what the NY Times is saying.....I was just quoting them.

Sorry, I should have explicitly directed my outrage at the Times. I certainly was not shooting the messenger. Smile

About 20 years ago, my partner and I were on the sidewalk in front of our retail store in Santa Monica, and Oliver Stone and some other guy comes walking by, and Oliver Stone says to the other guy and points to our store: "See this business, they'll go broke in 6 months"

ha

markegg wrote:

to miss a few payments and then reapply for the program

Seems to be what they tell just about everyone.

They are buried in paperwork already. They don't want anymore work to do. You are just looking to cause them more grief. It is ok to not do anything until it is time to panic. I agree the whole thing is past stupid.

Farrell's trough runneth over with doom...

Juvenal Delinquent wrote:

Farrell's trough runneth over with doom...

I'm amazed he finds the energy to get out of bed in the morning.

That is just sad. Those are the people with jobs.

What about the folks who lost jobs who would otherwise have no problems with the mortgage? There are people around here who are losing homes after being in them for 10 of 15 years.

Juvenal Delinquent wrote:

"I'm America and I have a thinking problem"

......wut?

TakeDaMoneyAndRun wrote:

What about the folks who lost jobs who would otherwise have no problems with the mortgage? There are people around here who are losing homes after being in them for 10 of 15 years.

Unfortunately, that's just long enough to be deluded into thinking you had real equity in your home and were justified in extracting some of it to take a "well earned" cruise..........

Juvenal Delinquent wrote:

You can only scream so much...

He reminds me of Marvin, the paranoid android.

Clearly, HAMP was not designed to help borrowers. It was designed to support the banks balance sheets by putting off the inevitable -- more mortgage defaults.

HAMP is a $75B extend-and-pretend program. Extend defaults into the future and pretend the banks balance sheets are better than they actually are.

Hi CR --

Looks like you made your calculation for borrower monthly income with the "Median Monthly Payment" value. If you see the note, that excludes taxes and insurance (I used excel solver to calculate this as $475.43.)

Here's what your table should look like:

Monthly Income 4236.43 4236.43
Front End (PITI+HOA) 1906.39 1313.29
Back End (total) 3236.63 2533.38
After Debt Income 999.80 1703.04

Since insurance and taxes combined are approximately 2% of the value of the home, that would give the mean home value per mod of roughly $285,000. Also, that would give a House Price to Gross Income ratio of approximately 5.6!!!

Moral of the story?

Get way over your head in debt, shirk responsibility, get on welfare, don't read the fine print, don't have a disciplined budget, but if you do by no means follow it, and for heaven's sake lie.

The ends justify the means.

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