NAHB Builder Confidence declines in March
Submitted by
CalculatedRisk on Mon, 03/15/2010 - 9:06am (179 comments)
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Where exactly are new homes being built nowadays?
Not in the Central Valley...
But how can this be with such a strong recovery just getting underway?
The new normal? Leading indicator?
I sure would like to see a DOW or S&P overlay on that chart.
Anecdotal, natch: When the economy was good, they could finny a haus in my hood in about 2-3 weeks, start to finish. They've just spent over **4 months **doing 2 houses next door to ours. Methinks they aint got any anchor tenants to tap for these units....
JD, not many places is the answer. There is some construction - I see it in SoCal - but it isn't widespread.
Note: Typing on my 300 baud Time Warner internet connection. The service guy arrives tomorrow. Lots of fun being back in the stone ages ....
best to all
Eventually you'd expect some survivor bias to show up as weaker players should be getting crushed out of the index. I'd expect the HMI index to go up before starts do as all the little players get destroyed without the benefit of favorable retroactive tax law changes the big boys were gifted.
CalculatedRisk wrote:
No calling CR on his home line; the acoustic coupler has taken priority.
It's a good thing we let the builders offset losses with their ficticious prior profits. Otherwise the index would be even lower.
Blob Troll rocks!
How many new housing projects are being started from scratch?
I've driven hundreds of miles around the CV, and i've seen about 10 homes in a larger project being completed, and that's it.
The HMI has been in the 15 to 19 range since May 2009.
The HMI has been at all time lows for the last 30 months.
I'm not even sure the builders are still spray painting the lawns green.
Light construction here locally in North Houston.
I get the impression they are just going through the motions. There is land with services in, but just a few houses are being framed and finished.
At $70-90k, they are cheap houses that shouldn't be hard to sell. And yep, tiny 'lots', very tightly spaced. Just barely a 'step up' from a condo.
No Exit? Delayed GSE Plan Limits New Options - American Banker Article
The Obama administration's reluctance to put forth a plan for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac only increases the chance that the government-sponsored enterprises will become permanent arms of government.
Right now, the administration is unwilling to provide an outline for the GSEs' future because doing so would leave it vulnerable politically and could upset the still-fragile mortgage markets.
But the longer the two companies stay in limbo, the harder it will be to chart a new course for them, observers said. Many in the marketplace have grown used to them as de facto nationalized entities; figuring out how to distance them from the government would probably be a complex and lengthy process.
SS was not projected to go cash flow negative until around 2018. I wonder how far off the projected end of SS is from 2037?
With fewer people employed, the numbers would work if they would increase the full retirement age to 80 and increase the tax rate to 10% each for employee and employer. They could use the surpluses to buy more T-bonds. Renege-renege is a Win-win.
I don't usually quote Bill & Ted, but:
"[Bill and Ted fall into an abyss toward hell]
Bill, Ted: AAAAAAAAHHHH!
[they run out of breath, then pause and look around, still falling, not sure what to do]
Bill: AAAH...!
Bill, Ted: AAAAAAAAAHHHH!
Bill: Dude, this is a totally deep hole.
Ted: Yeah... now what?
Bill: I don't know.
[pause]
Bill: AAAH...!
Bill, Ted: AAAAAAAAAHHHH! "
60 minutes and michael lewis shill for the bankstas in a backhanded way
after watching the michael lewis piece on 60 minutes last night...
looks like lewis tries to set the stage for letting the miscreants off of the legal hook
lewis claims in the interview that most of the crisis was the result of ignorance and incentives not to see the truth... rather than fraud.,
and claims, (how he knows this isnt said) that the banksta CEOs just didnt know what was going on in their own companies
what bull shit
many on wall street were well aware of the fraud and danger involved.
remember when some at the monolines balked at giving triple A ratings for CDOs and then were ordered to "rethink" their decision.
lewis didnt mention that as early as 2005 and before,people here were discussing that the financial system was in severe danger and risked a crisis,
and what about paul volker in a speech in the spring of 05 warned that we were headed off a cliff,....few listened.
lewis should know that goldman and others sold securities they knew were in trouble, represented to clients as good stuff and then hedged against the very same product.
how could lewis be ignorant of the many big investment banks used huge leverage investing in derivatives based on a variety of shakey collateralized debt obligations,
and they knew what they were doing was very bad and so pushed much of these investments off book to hide from regulators and stock holders and others.
lewis screws justice when he minimizes the fraud involved
60 minutes should have janet tavakoli or yves smith on to counter lewis vacuous claim that fraud is not a big part of the story
ghostfaceinvestah wrote:
How far were they ever? With the implicit government backstop, regulators should have been more involved anyway.
CalculatedRisk wrote:
Three letters for you: UCI
Oh, and your blackberry can operate as a tethered modem.
Why wait for a crisis to profit from it, when you can beg, borrow or steal for the next 10 years?
It's not like anybody is gonna notice...
Just got a phone call from my husband, a 4 yr degree nursing student who will be graduating in May.
He just found out the nursing job fair scheduled for this week has been cancelled due to lack of participating employers here in Central Indiana.
Gulp!
OT-but sudden realization!
A lot of our society's problems would disappear overnight if we made the profession of "tax attorney" illegal.
More
, less 
noob goldberg wrote:
I tried that with my iPhone the other day, but I couldn't fit it into the foam mount.
Mr Slippery wrote:
Wage deflation is a bitch.
What is the commute like?
I think the real issue for a long time is the demand pulled forward.
I have a couole of friends that are 2 and 3 years into a 4 year nursing degree, and if they had blown all that time trying to come up with the next best digital doohickey, i'd have told them to not bother, and they know jobs are far and few between, and probably their best shot at employment is a local prison, upon graduation...
Welcome to Amerika, version 2.010
I have been looking at property in Costa Rica as of late, seems to be a lot of nice property for sale there.
I would say within the next year or so I am seriously considering moving permanently, not for Doom and gloom sake, but just for a change of pace going into my late 40's.
And the best part is the wife is on board as I have been discussing this for sometime, maybe she is pacifying me, but she dd say when ever your ready.....I think a vacation is in order
ccgrouprealty.com
Retire in Costa Rica, Costa Rica Immigration, Insurance, Costa Rica Relocation & Moving Services, Retirement Real Estate
kcoop wrote:
I just did a google image search for an iphone in an acoustic coupler, and none exists. Take a picture and it's be one in a million, Ken
EDIT: Would you believe that someone still sells them? Konexx Koupler
Heh!
Blackhalo wrote:
Methinks early retirement is contributing. There's some sophisticated math and game theory as to whether to take early lower payments or later full payments. It looks like the vote is sying there's decreasing hope that full payments will be around when they get there.
In 2005, Bernanke and Greensham denied the existance of a housing bubble. Bernanke claimed that house price increases were the result of rising incomes. Bernanke should have been fired. Any fool can hand out Federal Reserve credit.
Bernanke: There's No Housing Bubble to Go Bust - washingtonpost.com
They're still finishing up a few in Pittsburgh. There was some development on the North Side here in response to the new casino opening, and it still hasn't been entirely completed (also the bust was slow to arrive here, as the county by county unemployment figures will tell you). For over a year there has been a sign advertising 'Luxuxy Townhomes' (typo in the original) to passersby on Federal Street. The lack of attention to detail on the sign certainly doesn't inspire confidence.
The current mayor in cahoots with the urban redevelopment authority also has some cockamamie plan to redevelop the old railroad terminal in the Strip District, relocating the current low-rent businesses and turning it into who-knows-what, possibly urban loft apartments/condos. Standard graft and corruption, I'm sure his friends stand to get paid somehow. Meanwhile the last big urban renovation here, the South Side Works, is starting to show signs of strain; one of the largest retail tenants (J&B Booksellers) moved out of their huge space and into a much smaller one across the street, leaving a massive vacancy that will not be easy to fill.
mock-
just finished viewing that myself.....totally agree. They all knew what they were doing.....when they were doing it. They are compensated for knowing everything but when the greatest bubble ever produces less than stellar results they claim they didn't know....Sgt. Schultz syndrome at it's best.
Ciao
MS
mojo wrote:
Follow the snowbirds. And it might not be a bad idea to specialize in geriatric care...
America’s Nursing Shortage by the Numbers - Soliant Health
Mr Slippery wrote:
Hey! I got it! Let's put a part of it in the stock market!
some investor guy, yeah - I'm using my broadband wireless for surfing - and typing right now. It is actually pretty fast (close to 1MB). Not sure what the Time Warner problem is, but all my data files and tools are on my main computer.
Rob Dawg, yes, but I'm pointing out that even though the Confidence index bottomed - it hasn't increased since May - just moved sideways. And that is important for starts, employment and the economy.
best to all
Rob Dawg wrote:
I've heard of that one. It's called the Pensioners Dilemna, right?
Rob Dawg wrote:
Also those out of work and can't find a job just opt for early SS.
shill wrote:
Also check out Argentina, less expensive and more European in life style.
I read that early lower SS payments (show me the money @ 62) were up like 25% over last year's numbers...
Rob Dawg wrote:
Everyone knows they can't keep their promises, so those who can take SS right now are taking what they can. Maybe that lack of confidence will play out better with the rest of the financial system.
Goes with the Steve Martin bit (from the 70's) about forgetting armed robbery was illegal.......
Ciao
MS
IIRC Disability claims have increased as well.
The woman who works in the office I rent space from was just cut to 1/2 time. Her husband is an unemployed teacher. Not a good day.
slummy--does last year's vaccination still protect humans?
Rob Dawg wrote:
Early is the way to go, as you can always pay it back and then get the full benefits.
CalculatedRisk wrote:
There I go again, assuming everyone has a laptop crammed full of memory and every bit of software you could ever want.
Full disclosure, I sometimes take two laptops with me when I travel.
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
One less can this administration can kick down the road. Screws their deficit projections big time. Remember, the draw down is only one side of the equation. On the othter side all these high earners are not paying into SS anymore either. And life expectancy for early retirees isn't "cooperating." Doubleplus budget problems.
some investor guy wrote:
I only have a notebook. Love it for traveling. Tether to cell phone and I can work from anywhere.
/Full disclosure, I sometimes take two laptops with me when I travel. /
VMware Workstation 7.x works quite well for carving up a laptop into multiple virtual machines...two laptops is just wrong.
Complicated game theory? Good thing that doesn't apply to bankers and the risk reward ratio of creating trillions in non-liquidating debt.
Thank you Josap I will check it out for sure....Definitely looking for sure. Not sure if it's the weather or what not, but, just getting fed up with the daily rat race. I Have a nice pension that I could put to better use I feel. And well maybe lay low for a while.
Tic Tic Tic
blackhat wrote:
Or VMware Fusion if you are Mac-inclined.
Angry Saver wrote:
80x leverage. Eh. What could happen? The models say it's all good.
shill wrote:
Costa Rica is rainy 1/2 of the year. Each coast gets it for a diff 1/2 of the year. So it can be very muggy and hot. The country is beautiful and the people are really nice. There are areas in the mountains that stay cool, but you get more rain.
I feel confident I could get 80-1 odds on the Bills winning the Superbowl next year, but actually cashing in my wager might prove to be difficult.
Thanks again Josap I will take that into consideration for sure.
I'd just like to point out that the VIX is at its lowest level (over the past couple of days) since May 2008.
shill wrote:
Looking at the retirement tourism meme, if it catches on in a big way would be interesting. If the a potential tax base flees to locations that offer a better return on a dollar, by moving to areas with lower costs of living, there is the double whammy of less tax revenue, and wages falling, as a class of consumers take the jobs that support them too, but not the pension liabilities.
Kind of like Detroit...
Makes you wonder how much of this is a reflection of immediate need (people get laid off and have to take the early payout) and how much is due to falling confidence in the value of the future payments. Which, by the way, I fully expect would decrease as a result of inflation (understated/massaged COLA adjustments) rather than actual reductions in the payout schedule.
The builders are blaming it on foreclosures. I guess they were surprised to find out there are more distressed sales coming
best wishes
blackhalo 1023
rob dawg 1027
dont worry about social security (wink wink)
we got 2.7 trillion dollas of them ious... uh i mean bonds
sitting in some metal file cabinet
i wonder hu will get paid first... workers and businesses who had payroll taxes deducted and sidetracked into the general fund
or the bankstas
never mind
bbartlog wrote:
I'm not sure what immediate need would have to do with it. What is the downside to taking early payment? Clearly the downside to taking the later payout is that you might die before seeing a dime of benefit...
Point is, if you're 62 and working, or 62 and were planning to draw on a HELOC to pay your bills until you were 65, it might well be practical and money-maximizing to delay the age of collection until you're 65 or 67 or w/e. Whereas if you're unemployed and/or cut off from credit, you might have to start taking payments immediately (just to avoid starving / being homeless) even though the on-paper ROI for delaying a few years looks pretty high.
i recently visited a few newly completed developments downtown Brooklyn. In one occasion, 25% of apts were sold, 10% rented and the remaining up for grabs at record low prices (i.e. 3-bedroom, new condo, $2,500 sf, building with all facilities like gym, etc., view of downtown Manhattan, inside parking spot comes with apt, taxes paid for 25 yrs) = $1m. A few others took 2 yrs to complete, could not sell them, they are all up for rent...In another one, I saw a construction worker cleaning the windows but the development did not even have locks in the doors
I was thinking I can put at least 50% down and get a good deal but I expect prices to decrease even more so I am standing by...!
Argentina is the worst bits of England, Italy and Spain without the property rights.
josap wrote:
Rent in Argentina and wait for the next debt default. Could be A LOT cheaper soon.
Same could be said for Spain...
UK....
shill wrote:
There was a lot of RE speculation there years ago; you might check, just as here, whether current price levels are still out of synch with historical reality, and by how much. Don't want to move X thousand miles south just to catch a knife.
There are some nice places there. I think the smaller towns in the north and in the highlands, up around coffee country, are the best. The coastal lowlands were too hot for me.
Rob Dawg wrote:
80x leverage. Eh. What could happen? The models we were paid handsomely to build say it's all good.
I saw some photos of what $40k buys in the lake district in Argentina, and it had the look of a home you'd pay an extra zero for here...
blackhat wrote:
Or VirtualBox if you want the best performance for free.
VirtualBox
VMware Player version 3.0+ is also quite usable nowadays though performance is nowhere near VirtualBox in my experience but I use both for different things.
If the builders aren't building then how are the HOAs of half built developments holding up? Who is picking up the tab?
black dog wrote:
If you can't spot the mark...
Some HOA's have lots of fat in the prices, others have lots of expenses, fixed or otherwise.
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
Always good to look into what it doesn't buy, too -- nearby hospital, rapid EMS, cell phone reception, good connectivity, a decent police force, etc. etc. That's true even here in the states when you buy out in the country. Ten miles from where I sit are cute country hideways so remote that it takes an ambulance 30 minutes to respond, and a firetruck almost as long. A lot of people don't think about such things when they sign the deal.
I'm going to blame my delayed tax filing on the snow.
Then I'll tell the cop who pulls me over I ran a red light because of the snow.
Then I'm going to miss a week of work and go to disneyland because of the snow.
Actually, those are all much more probable than any reason the new has used.
There is once again renewed "hope" for the future of housing. Ran into quite a few folks who are actively buying and selling homes this weekend in the Bay Area.
Two have bought $2m+ homes without sale contingencies on their current homes. Mind you, these folks couldn't make it more than a few months paying two mortgages; so there is considerable confidence in their ability to sell.
mock turtle wrote:
Need to move more money back into the US tomorrow.
Are there other countries to move it into instead?
Anyone? Bueller.....Bueller....?
The Golden Truth: AIG Transfers $46 Million From the Taxpayers to Derivatives Traders
MrBeach wrote:
so there is considerable confidence in their ability to sell.
Emphasis on 'CON' here?
RE,
Fair.
I use workstation since it easily ports both SERVER & Workstation OS's. Real easy to take a physical server, convert it to virtual, and play with it on a laptop.
Mr. Slippery,
Not a Mac guy myself. Linux, or if you must, Windows 7/XP. Mac's appear really good at tricking you into dragging and dropping your important files into the Darkness, from whence they never return.
I have almost no services here, and i'm used to it...
How about the rest of the country, when the money runs out?
What problem with SS? they can issue IOU's just like Cali. Problem solved.
mock turtle wrote:
turtle: this is a picture of said filing cabinet, in case you're curious:
http://www.motherjones.com/files/images/Bush_Social_Security_Bonds.jpg
I'm going to blame my delayed tax filing on the snow.
Get with the times. Rain is reigning the day.
It's inCONceivable that so many boomers are heading into retirement without having their homes paid off.
Those expecting a rebound in residential real estate are in for a rude awakening imo.
Greensham and Bernanke were derelict in allowing Wall St. to push so much non-liquidating debt into the system. So many are so screwed. And to make matters worse, sham artists like Hank Paulson are writing op-eds claiming that we have to get a handle on entitlements. When a Wall St. operative like Paulson want's to address entitlements, it means the majority are about to get short changed - again.
Under the stewardship of Paulson and other venal bonus seeking bankers, Wall St. used the privilege of credit creation to extract wealth rather than create wealth.
Why would the public entertain any of Paulson's opinions at this point?
PK is at it again.
China’s Water Pistol - Paul Krugman Blog - NYTimes.com
MrBeach wrote:
"Real estate always goes up." Old memes die hard.
blackhat wrote:
Mac's appear really good at tricking you into dragging and dropping your important files into the Darkness, from whence they never return.
One man's 'dragging and dropping your important files into the Darkness' is another's company's cloud-based storage business plan.
/It's inCONceivable that so many boomers are heading into retirement without having their homes paid off./
It's conceivable that so many boomers are praying for the lead gift in the twilight. IMO.
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
We'll be marching in brown shirts before community services are cut. What cannot happen, will not be allowed to happen. You might or might not like the side effects, but there you are.
Bob Dobbs wrote:
"Real estate always goes up." Old memes die hard.
Old dreams of retirement lifestyle bought with it, however, die fast.
steelhead wrote:
The terminal stages of
overdosing are never pretty.
Blackhalo wrote:
Yes...what happens if the retirees take their savings and move to other countries with....oh, I don't know....CHEAPER HEALTHCARE?
Or a CONniving Real Estate Agent.
CaptainMorgan wrote:
My father is dealing with the fallout in his HOA because the developer was corrupt and was basically scamming the owners. He was able to get away with it and keep up appearances while everyone was fat and happy, but now that half the homes sit idle it's turned into all out war between the developer and his cronies, the people that care ( still paying the mortgages ), and those that don't care or getting foreclosed on anyways.
Resistance,
I'm always partial for clouds, especially anvil, mushroom, and concave shaped.
That being said, it is a retch of a buzzword, this cloud-computing marketing spracht...however, the real-world DR possibilities are phenomenal. I can click a mouse and make your datacenter fail-over to another datacenter on the other side of the country, and then fail-back.
Which is worse - bankers or terrorists wrote:
Demand for health-care in those countries will go up, as will prices. Additionally, this will price out many of the locals, leading to resentment and potentially violence among them....
blackhat wrote:
Understood. VirtualBox is improving in that department but is not even close to a match with for pay VMware in these situations.
ResistanceIsFeudal wrote:
Bob Dobbs wrote:
"Real estate always goes up." Old memes die hard.
Old dreams of retirement lifestyle bought with it, however, die fast.
After the second or third false dawn in RE, the meme will be truly stomped to death. I think we're about at FD 1.
Bob Dobbs wrote:
Oh come on. That can't happen hee. The only reason brownshirts flourished was because their government saddled the people with unpayble external debts... that.. they didn't agreeee.... never mind.
I don't think we are organized enough to pull that one off...
I wonder if the sales for Lego and Lincoln Logs corrolates
with the survey.
ResistanceIsFeudal wrote:
Many folks in the Bay Area have benefited from the exuberant stimulus efforts worldwide with considerable overseas revenue.
There also continues to be renewed hope for a reopening of the IPO window soon with the inevitable launch of a Facebook and/or Zynga IPO. 30-year olds with a few million worth of stock are prime targets for enterprising real estate agents.
There was a great story some years back of a 29-year old google engineer buying a $10million dollar multi-room estate in Atherton on a whim and reselling it a few months later because he realized he had no need for it.
Cinco-X wrote:
Dude, I went to the emergency room three weeks ago, and the entire visit, complete with a bag full of painkillers, cost me $7, on top of my $0 monthly premium deducted from my paycheck. I think prices will take awhile to rise to the levels you might envision.
Would be paradise for Brett Favre.
blackhat wrote:
I've been hardcore Linux since 1997, but softened on Macs when OS X was introduced with a juicy BSD underbelly. You don't have to use the Finder to move anything around, just mv, cp, and scp as usual. I can do real work on a Mac, and enjoy the multimedia stuff that is not as easy on Linux.
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
All somebody needs to do is build an organization that enough people are attracted to. So that they become part of the greater whole. All decisions made by the supreme leader. The bundle of fasces, all those zillions of little sticks bound into one big club for the Leader to hit people with.
I mean, they had facism in Italy; why not here?
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
Check.
And don't forget we Americans consume 66% of the world's antidepressants....that doesn't hurt TPTB either.
Bob Dobbs wrote:
I could say something about 1/20/2001-1/19/2009, but the weekend was yesterday.
On brown shirts:
It would be a special ideology indeed that cut across the ethnic, religious, political diversity of the US. Certainly an idealogy which provides the beans, bacon, butter, and bread to the masses is persuasive--but I'm more inclined to lean to the prognostication that if we go down the organized fascism route, it won't be a single one, but the many-techno-colored shirts of competing fascists--most entirely justified in their desire to provide the necessities--against all the others.
MrBeach wrote:
We should have a caption competition. What is Bush saying...
"$2 trillion in IOUs. We'll pay it back... chuckle"
Which is worse - bankers or terrorists wrote:
Dude,
All that happens on the margins. One guy, no big deal; 250,000 retirees with much greater demands for care than yourself? That'll hit their market a lot harder. The invisible hand will be giving their market a prostate exam, and it won't be gentle.....
Lobbyist Ben Dover wrote:
A Dollar by any other name...
Cinco-X wrote:
Well, Dubai being an example, 90% of the market is expats, and that's what it costs expats. I don't hear the locals bitching.
Blackhalo wrote:
I'm thinking we'll end up with the "Freedom Peso" instead of the Amero. Canada will dump us as soon as possible...
It's 1982 and i've just gotten onto a big old jet airliner headed for Auckland, and i've got a cold that turns into a full-blooded nasty flu upon arrivial in NZ. I'm staying at a hotel, but i'm afraid to call for a doctor, because even back then, I knew how expensive American health care is.
A couple days after bed sweats combined with being cold all the time, I could take no more and called the front desk and asked if a doctor could come see me.
About 30 minutes later I received my first and only doctor visit in which he was holding a black bag, like in days of olde...
He told me I had a really bad flu and I was in no condition to go get the drugs I needed, so he told me he'd go to the chemist for me and 15 minutes later he returned with the goods, and hit me up for his services.
He told me that medicine in NZ wasn't free, but it was reasonable and told me it'd be for $4 for the visit and $3 for the medicine.
Will the brown shirts come from china?
blackhat wrote:
Do I hear a tea kettle whistling?
YouTube - 12/31/2006 Peter Schiff On FOX Bulls And Bears/Cavuto
Which is worse - bankers or terrorists wrote:
A country with a lot of oil wealth isn't exactly a representative example of what will be going on in Brazil, Argentina, Mexico, etc.
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
The cost was most likely more than $7, just a matter of who paid for it.
This is the real issue even though the masses don't get that.
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
This what I'm talking about with Cinco-X. I've lived in two countries in Europe and in the Middle East now, and you just don't have the liability issues. No body will control the lawyers. Plus, if you have a system where doctor's get paid by the test rather than for the required care, results are predictable.
But, put the lawyers and AMA together, and they are effectively more powerful on these issues than the rest of the electorate.
Cinco-X wrote:
You just listed three countries with more oil wealth than the Emirate of Dubai, which has almost none.
CaptainMorgan wrote:
Bingo!
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
What does any of this have to do with folks retiring en masse to small countries with what are now considered cheap health-care? The funds to pay for their health care and the doctors and the facilities just appear out of nowhere?
Cinco-X wrote:
Part of the issue is regulatory liability issues that needlessly inflate the cost in US, and don't exist in other countries.
Cinco-X wrote:
A lot of these countries allow AT COST buy-ins to the local health-care plans. Which for some may offer a better value than domestic health care plans. I doubt the locals will complain too much as expat money will bring jobs with it.
Health Care in Costa Rica
Mr. Slippery,
That is fair. Each to their own.
Which is worse - bankers or terrorists wrote:
They're part of the United Arab Emirates which has a lot. If you think supply and demand will no longer be a factor if or when retirees go en masse to the small countries (in volumes big enough to make a difference here in the US), you clueless or deluded.
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
It hasn't changed all that much since then. A typical doctor's visit costs around NZ$30 and medicine is NZ$4.00 - $8.00.
Lawyers in NZ are very lonely as there aren't very many of them there, as lawsuits that are commonplace here in regards to medicine, aren't there.
Actually, the government sets the prices, so the cost is quite a bit lower - even if we pay higher taxes.
My new poll requires the following video, so sorry for any confusion:
YouTube - Mr Wint and Mr Kidd - "Bombe Surprise"
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
I've noticed real estate purchase agreements and leases in the Middle East are maybe 10% of the length compared to US.
You know, when they actually draw those things up. Sometimes people just talk about doing and deal, nothing is written down, and one day...you occupy the space!
Which is worse - bankers or terrorists wrote:
The repubs are against the tort lawyers and regulation; does this mean you'll be voting with them in upcoming elections? After all, the trial lawyers are one of the biggest benefactors of the dems, and we can't expect them to leave them hanging out to dry....
Perhaps the solution is not less regulation, but rather more so that we can add the government's cut in on top of those costs?
I'm having a hard time taking you two seriously....
Cinco-X wrote:
Mexico is $250.00 per year, per person if you live there. Drugs are cheap too.
As a child I suffered with infected tonsils and had to have a penicillin shot that would make me better beffore we reached home and for which my parents paid 10.00 for shot and visit. Each fall I will get infected sinus's and must have medication. My DR makes like he forgets from year to year but I demand penicillin tablets which cost less than 10.00 of which I break into and usually 1/2 will clear me up. He always fuss's about penicillin not being as good as the new meds, but I stand my ground. One can do that with age.
Cuba begans charging this month for health insurance to enter their country.
If Americans only had a clue to how they've let lawyers run roughshod over their lives compared to our peer countries, pitchforks might be deployed.
Cinco-X wrote:
Cinco-X, I'm not arguing a either-or position or trying to articulate a Republican or Democrat view. I'm between 7 and 10 time zones away from you guys...it's a totally different system and not comparable. What I am pointing out is that we used to be a country where we borrowed good ideas from people. I don't get that feeling from America. We think we're such hot shit we're not hungry enough to really practically improve the system by picking and choosing from others solutions. This is disappointing....every day I see how people here look up to the American system, which I'm very proud of, and I see what a clusterf
k it is becoming.
josap wrote:
Yes, no perscriptions for pretty much anything you want here. I love it.
You can do that when there isn't tort liability and one person screwing it up doesn't blow it for the other million.
That seems to be a major source of income here in the states JD, slip and fall, law suit, tap a car bumper, Law suit.
But insurance companies are calling bluff, as the money pool is not what is use to be, so small figure suit's in the $4000 to $5000 minus the 1/3 of course, and its chump change, but money none the less to the lemmings.
I don't think I'd want to live in a country that could execute you over a debt or sex even with cheap medical care.
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
After all of the appropriate warning labels have been affixed and liability release forms signed, of course.
German health insure for travel in the US is $14.00 per year.
Any Dr, any hospital, any drugs, any tests, any care. That also covers shipping your body back home if you die.
steelhead wrote:
Better avoid Canada. We'll shoot you for even thinking about defaulting on your beaver loan.
Wait, what?
steelhead wrote:
I guess my point is that many, many other countries do it more cheaply, whether they can arrest you for debt or not. I don't live in France at the moment, so I can't use that as a current example where I went to the emergency room 3 weeks ago.
As for human rights in Dubai, which is a completely different topic way off topic, but I'll say this: right or wrong, you can really get away with different things, legally, depending upon your nationality, social status, or who you work for. It is much more like that in other Middle Eastern countries; particularly Saudi comes to mind.
It's sort like....well I don't know....working for Goldman in the US or being able to hire an expensive attorney there, I guess.
No one in the US likes Lawyers until they need one and then expect them to fix everything in the first thirty minutes that it took a lifetime to screw up. Hey, if you are in business in the US you better have your own Attorney, had to go to FBI to get my State License, corruption is not only in Washington its in every nook and crany in the US.
josap wrote:
and Dawg and I have wondered about the economics of shipping manhole covers from India
So where would be the best place to move?
What are the priorities you would lookfor?
I want no snow, inexpensive cost of housing, basic security, affordable medical care.
I'm sure there are other things on my list, just haven't thought about them.
...the horrors of socialized medicine laid bare~
Which is worse - bankers or terrorists wrote:
My only point was that what might be true for one healthy American in a foreign country might not, and probably will not be true if a population of older, less healthy Americans that might be as large as a substantial fraction of said countries population move in and start needing a substantial portion of said country's medical resources. You cannot extrapolate from the specific to the general without taking into account these other factors such as how much "slack" or extra capacity is there in these country's ability to provide medical care.
Maury the Credit Responsibility Panda wrote:
You're a nashural...
mock turtle wrote:
I actually think that he is spot on- the CEO's made sure that they didn't know. Why question the numbers that you are seeing if Wall Street is rewarding you for those numbers by driving up your stock price and your options.
While you may like to believe that there was fraud - buying risky assets with gigantic leverage is not illegal nor fraudulent. If you as a trader disclosed what you were doing there is no fraud. Representing something as having lower risk than what it subsequently turns out to be is not illegal or fraudulent. Even if you believed the risk to be higher as long as it met the criteria established is not illegal. e,g. if your rules require you to purchase AAA rated securities and you did where is the fraud? I think the really sad thing is that there were so many people who actually believed that these risky assets were less risky than the Cassandra's were saying they were. Anybody remember Dow 30,000
josap wrote:
California in 1961. Next question....
Cinco-X wrote:
True, however most of us will never move out of the US. The small fraction that does will not all move to the same country. And of course those countries may decide on higher payments for non-citizens.
you left out free education
My parents bought their first home in LA for $14k in 1960, and our family doctor was Mr. Evers.
They have no business building any more houses, some of those atrocities they built during the boom, I swear my Grandma's house that side of the family built 50 years ago themselves will outlive and out insulate these ridiculous houses they threw up.
Worst part is we are stuck with them too. Untill they fall apart or get bulldozed.
Cinco-X wrote:
All good points.
My 93-year grandmother died this past October. I miss her, but she had a stroke in 1999 and basically had to have the family take care of her for 10 years. On life support for the last year. Really bad situation.
The point is, in a socialized system, how people like this are dealt with really is a major policy question of the next 20-30 years given the cost of our particular system. Either you change the cost structure of our system to soften the blow, or the darker alternative: government funded systems will end up making choices about people like this.
People living near the border have worked travel insurance to their benefit for decades.
I used our travel insurance on a cruise once, and while I don't recall what it cost seem to remember that it was about on par with a copay or two for a visit and prescription.
Looks like the answer to UE is coming. Most want to leave the US to countries who have greener pastures!
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
LA has always been over priced. In 1965 my parents bought a 4/2 for $7,500. in Phx.
People don't even want to move out of state, for various reasons.
Lobbyist Ben Dover wrote:
Well retireing is ok, how hard is it to get a work visa in other countries? Or a job and then the visa?
josap wrote:
There are beginning to be substantial movements to Mexico, though not on the scale I described. I'd definitely prefer Argentina myself. We don't know what will happen in the future, but if what I suspect comes to pass, we'll see our ability to spend in those other potential countries diminish as the dollar weakens and the additional demand for services drives up prices in those other countries.
My only point was that additional demand will have the effect of driving up prices elsewhere if Americans choose to go overseas to seek lower cost health care. Hey! I'm not against it by any means.....taking your demand elsewhere lowers demand here and has the potential to lower prices here, though as some have pointed out, there are some structural issues to price in the US that make them sticky downwards; most likely an indirect effect of some public policy designed to provide greater access to health care for Americans....
Don't forget doing your own water. That's fun too.
Uncle Ar wrote:
Free tuition; there's a difference.....just ask Rob's kids-
no, back then free meant free (or damn close to it)
the CEO's made sure that they didn't know.
I remember Ken Lay using the sergeant shultz defense and all I could think of was 'wtf did you know that justified making $50million/year? Either you are incompetent or a crook.'
Lobbyist Ben Dover wrote:
Anecdotally, in construction, I'm hearing about friends of mine who have been laid off for quite a bit of time now either getting jobs, or getting consulting work that is feeding them for the first time in awhile.
I'm considering whether I might want to come back....I expected I would have by now.
The funny thing is, you realize both economically and from a career opportunity perspective, it makes no sense. It's a really strange feeling for someone who both really cares about California and the US. Thinking about it in cold business terms, I'm better off playing the field in Asia, for sure.
josap wrote:
It's really a looooooooong conversation but I'm up to speed on a few things. What's your field and countries of interest?
black dog wrote:
I think the masses get this one, and side with crook.
I would be one of them.
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
Was on a bike ride out in Sammamish WA yesterday (eastern suburbs of Seattle)..saw some signs advertising "New Homes for Sale..starting at $600K"..so rode in there to check it out. They had completed 2 model homes...saw one other house being built (about 1/3 complete)..other than that about 100 empty lots (waiting for buyers I guess before starting construction). Will be interesting to see
how things look in there by end of Summer.
I think most have a tendicy to lose perspective of what they have and see the free side of some thing that is really very different. You only know if it is real when you experience it.
Which is worse - bankers or terrorists wrote:
I suspect that the truth be told, we can all (outside of the health care industry) agree that the system is broken. I'm convinced that it's because no one inside the systems that has (at present) the ability to affect costs actually has any reason to do so. Lawyers? No way! Bigger settlement mean bigger income for them. Doctors? No way! Bigger fees translate directly to more income for them. Hospitals? No way! Bigger bills mean more income for them. Insurance companies? No way! Bigger bills mean the value of their percentage is that much greater.
And what if government played a role? Could we expect less bureaucracy? Hell no! That's not how bureaucracies work. They want to grow, since relative growth translates to greater power for the bureaucrats, and that's what they're interested in, no your well being. Believe it-
Which is worse - bankers or terrorists wrote:
After buying and selling a house in the US, I was amazed at how simple the whole house buying and selling process was here in New Zealand - just a few pages here compared to a ream of paper in the US.
Which is worse - bankers or terrorists wrote:
Currently own a RRE management firm. Advertising. Hbby is IT consultant for 25+ yrs. Kids all grown.
We like no snow, urban enviroment. Have been to South & Central America and a bit of Europe.
ResistanceIsFeudal wrote:
LOL owning a villa on the Palm Islands in Dubai now.
BWAHAHAHAHAHA
Final destination Iran? - Herald Scotland
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A few thousand lawyers can turn that home buying simplicity around in a jiffy!
Grim_Poppet wrote:
After buying and selling a house in the US, I was amazed at how simple the whole house buying and selling process was here in New Zealand - just a few pages here compared to a ream of paper in the US.
Elizabeth Warren is very right about illegitimacy of excessive, convoluted contracts. She'll be treated like a hairy hippie chick if she ever has the authority + inclination to pursue her theory and rein in gotcha-ism in U.S. financial contracts. But she is dead to right. These things are sclerosis inducing wealth transfer vehicles, whether they are written by credit card companies, software manufacturers or mortgage lenders.