Housing Market Index, Housing Starts, Snow and Spec Homes
Submitted by
CalculatedRisk on Sun, 03/14/2010 - 5:34pm (160 comments)
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Sideways is not down.
!
Mike in Long Island wrote:
Might as well be. Think about UE -- anything less than ~150K new jobs a month is still losing ground...
I'll give you a tinkers cuss ground level spec story.
2006, big developer buys up bout 190 acres of Mountain view Southern Face Oregon small town, builds a house at the top of the hill, sections off 38, 3-5acre lots and sells 6 for 1.4 million each. Offered at under 399k in 2010. I'm talking about the ones that got built.
YouTube - hotel california by the gipsy kings
Fucking Quintana. That guy can roll.-the dude
Mike in Long Island wrote:
Sideways takes you below where you want to be.
TJ and The Bear wrote:
I left off the
tag
I am coming around to mp's view that it's too late to turn this bus around. The Japanese experience is our best case scenario at this time.
How bad is Japan really?
Aren't all reports from the government a snow job?
Interesting Times wrote:
Great food, beer, whisky, women - economy? bleh.....
2m people exhaust their max UE benefits of 99 weeks end of March. I wonder when these people come off the roll, will it show lower UE rate? Anybody know?
Starts are irrelevant in a world where previous starts have been accumulating for 4 or more years.
Interesting Times wrote:
I should clarify - we will get the decade plus of stagnant growth sans the savings rate that Japan had when they embarked upon their journey. 8 to 9% unemployment could be with us for some time.
Interesting Times wrote:
Shiller, after his last visit, thought Japan was very wealthy. All their fiscal deficits are funded from domestic savings, no?
Futures down. Odd, I figured there was a few more trillion in worldwide equity gains due to saving of Greece and their integral economy. If we have enough threated soverign defaults, we can get the S&P to Abby's 1350.
SNAFU wrote:
You are counted as unemployed if you are not employed and have looked for a job in the last four week. Collecting benefits is a separate data point.
dr munch wrote:
The Finance Minister of France and Germany agree that no decision about Greece will be made at the meeting of ministers tomorrow.
Both of the states that I have any experience with force you to certify every week that you have made a minimum number of job contacts. (3).
I made far more than that, and it still took me from October to March to find a new job. And I'm one of those "college degree" folks with a 5% UE rate.
Mike in Long Island wrote:
Remember, mp's been one of the more optimistic ones around here, too.
SNAFU wrote:
Yes, but not likely going forward.
TJ and The Bear wrote:
I am aware of that as well.
got to get some shuteye since 5:30am is going to roll around real early tomorrow - who came up with this spring ahead thing anyway?
If I were President we'd always 'fall back" an hour -even in the spring.
Rajesh wrote:
Gotta love how they've handled this entire crisis so deftly.
SNAFU wrote:
Lot of people wont even look for a job until their UE runs out - or they work for cash and collect at the same time... Fraud in govt programs? If it's a govt program, it's full of fraud, and it never accomplishes the stated purpose. There are requirements to qualify for food stamps, but who is checking? You are supposed to go to school on Pell grants but who is checking? You can supposedly only get on welfare in one stat, but who is checking... You are supposed to vote in the precinct of your residence, but who is checking?
Is it any wonder that there is no trust in this world any more? This is way different from where and when I grew up... - and the world is a lot worse off for it...
essentially what the US economy has been doing for past 10 yrs. as extend and pretend reaches new heights of absurdity
Odysseus wrote:
I made far more than that, and it still took me from October to March to find a new job. And I'm one of those "college degree" folks with a 5% UE rate.
Wall-Street should have the opportunity to game this system... after all 5% UE means 1 in 20 odds!! Securitize this market, bi-atch!
There wont be any pretending when the shooting starts with real bullets....
Nationally there are 5 unemployed for every job opening. So only 1 of 5 will be employed EVEN if all are looking actively.
Govt Reports = Garbage in, garbage out....
Except according to the media - Govt reports = Garbage in, Gospel out...
Theres a little bit of spec building but really, no matter how cheap you price a house, you have to have employment in the economy to build homes. Almost doesn't matter the price.
Look at the chart - historical lows.
Grew up in the industry. When Carter had 20% interest rates, we had a rough go BUT it was still better than this crap.
Home depot is only busy with fixer work. The builders only use it for trinkets. The supply industry is beat up. Almost every client I had is in danger of loosing their home, the only income unaffected are the spouses with state/county/fed jobs.... disgusting. .
The Economics of Oil Empire and Peak Oil: US Energy Net Imports, Oil, and GDP.
I see allot of people in bubble central down sizing in everything from housing to cars to sports for the kids.Lots of hard choices being made now.
ShadowInventory wrote:
About the only reports you can believe these days are tax receipts, and they've been flashing red so long you'd think were were in a certain district in Amsterdam.
"
In Mr. Kyl’s view, then, what we really need to worry about right now —
**opening, and long-term unemployment at its highest level since the Great Depression — is whether we’re reducing the incentive of the unemployed to find jobs. To me, that’s a bizarre point of view — but then, I don’t live in Mr. Kyl’s universe.
"
OP-ED COLUMNIST; Senator Bunning's Universe - NY Times
Mr Bunning and Mr. Kyl is in good company!
The story of the PoopPie.
A friend wrote this to me today, based on some archane bullshit out of Yale, by some jerks who love looking backwards, but like the Christian Scientist newspaper of yore, they can't posit the correct conclusion.
She wrote:
"The other day I glanced at an article put out by Yale Econ team that stated that the financial crash was not due to the subprime market. As I then mentioned, the article called out an interesting statistic: the total size of the subprime market and indeed the mortgage market in total vis-a-vis the financial market in total, and it was a surprisingly small slice of the Pi (in honor of Pi Day: 3.14....). This report alleged that the real cause of the extensive crash was due to another market, and I could recall that the market called out in the article was the market wherein financial institutions lend to other financial institutions, repo's."
Slumdog's Reply follows:
The repo market was merely the arena in which the PooPies, in honor of pi day, were fronted as collateral.
As long as the stream of PooPies kept being manufactured and then sold to people who bought Ratings Certificates as their independent proof that they were stupid and should have been fired years ago but won’t be because they’re in “training” now continued to flow, no institutional pawn shop employee bothered to look at the underlying securities. The Ratings Certificates were sufficient.
But when the underlying subprime crap loans began to stink in huge qty, the PooPies also began to stink. And the pawnshop management, who were dealing in PooPies themselves, recognized the scent.
That’s what led to this.
The regulators did what they will do again, fear selfishly for their jobs. They would not be the whistleblowers. No, they were the regulators, and under the republican party’s platform of hands off governance, they just took their salaries and pushed paper.
A lot of people should be guillotined. Ain’t gonna happen.
Hubby finally got off at 8 pm. He thought he was going to get fired as he talks to the VP the same way he talks to anyone else and the VP happened to say something extra stupid to him while he was up to his calves in muck digging on his 21st day in a row of working; 12 hours in to the day. Luckily the owners Daddy has a soft spot for him or today would have been it. Hubby said another guy got his divorce papers served to him at work Friday. The third one in a month. He said some of the guys haven't seen their kids in two and three months. Yet, we have thousands of unemployed electricians. Chew 'em up and spit 'em out. The next guy will take even less in compensation. We are finished as a nation...finished.
As Simon Johnson asks us What's actually been done to make sure this doesn't happen again?
And, the answer is, sadly: NOTHING.
And that's your REAL hope and change ladies and gentleman from Pres.
The Chinese are financial assholes.
The US basically grubstaked them from Communism to Capitalism, and then gave them free access to the first world markets, knowing full well that China's labor was effectively free for first worlder's and that jobs would rush in to China.
Now, China thinks it's entitled to the cheap labor advantage, like welfare mothers think they're entitled to WIC.
The problem is that China thinks it has no responsibilities, merely benefits, in the world's economic reality, as they're so screwed up from their suppression 3 generations ago, and in the first WWar, and they think yesterday is today.
I think the first world needs to have a financial chat with the fiat holders in China. And I think that chat is now overdue.
Thee's a pretty good segment on 60 Minutes with Michael Lewis regarding Wall*Street.
It's completely damning, but not much we don't know already...
Sideways is down if you're on an elevated treadmill.
Like when you're in debt and still consuming more than you produce.
Pension Pulse: Another Great Depression Coming Soon?
Rajesh: my bad, I saw a headline on Bloomberg that the Greek crisis was over. Isn't the 'deadline' this week? Greece is bigger than Iceland, but still a small fry. They should change their currency to the "gyro"and be done.
TJ and The Bear wrote:
I think that the govt overall has all the raw data they need to put out really accurate meaningful reports, but that would not serve the politicians purposes... Seems like you could get a really accurate employment report from the SS and IRS data.... as an employer I had to file all sorts of reports monthly and quarterly, as well as making payments all the time... So why would we need to have reports based on surveys and guesses and black box models? Only so the politicians can manipulate the data for whatever purpose - mostly theft, no matter what you call it. Seems like the BS is coming home to roost, and who knows what the outcome will be - I suspect we will be seeing videos of big crowds rioting, cities burning, etc... but maybe not - after Katrina it looks like a lot of people will just die off in place - not with a bang, but a whimper...
ShadowInventory wrote:
I had previously predicted riots and widespread arson. So far, I have been wrong.
dr munch wrote:
Deadlines? We don't need no stinkin' deadlines! This is "extend & pretend" baby!!!
We are all in a foul mood tonight...
NYTimes: Report Is Critical of Obama’s Efforts at Transparency
Report Faults U.S. Government’s Efforts at Transparency - NY Times
Hoocoodanode
Beware the ideas of March...
ShadowInventory wrote:
Not just the politicians. We have so many special interest groups spinning everything under the sun to suit their own agendas, too. You know what they say... "Figures don't lie, but liars figure".
I'm not so much in a foul mood as I am sad. I'm sad at what this country has become. Money worshipping freaks. Right and Wrong mean nothing anymore. I'm not even religious and it makes me sick. Those that work the hardest are punished the most severely in our current society.
some investor guy wrote:
Not wrong, just early.
By "special interests" I assume you mean the Insurance, Oil, and defense contractors, right?
Oh wait, I forgot the bankers. Shame on me....The biggest "special interest" group of them all...
Right on .....it's time for a new Billy Jack Billy Jack - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
The wife and I played out our first test of fate on the ides of March. 13 years tomorrow, officially. Happy dooming everyone. Goodnight.
Comrade Kristina wrote:
Money worshipping freaks. Right and Wrong mean nothing anymore. I'm not even religious and it makes me sick. Those that work the hardest are punished the most severely in our current society.
Money worship has made us a society of whores. The cultural message being passed along to younger generations is that hard work is for suckers, just get rich, any way and at any cost.
Comrade Kristina wrote:
They're certainly the most prominent examples, but far from the only ones.
Comrade Kristina wrote:
It's not that there are so many of them, it's how much money they have.
It's also how much money they "speak for". If you include all of the people who manage money professionally, it's staggering how much wealth and income is influenced. I say that as one of the people doing this sort of thing. It still seems immense to me.
We have met the enemy, and he is us.... (Pogo)
Hmm RIF....Hubby has had that bitter attitude forever. He is a generation behind me (I'm a tweener born in 66, he's born in '75 and an X gen). It is hard to preach that whole "hard work will get you ahead" mantra to someone that is being screwed mercilessly no matter how hard he tries or works.
"Citi needs to die"..."Citi" representing all of the banksters of course.
We can spend $800B to bail out Wall St and $700B for MIC but we cannot save U.S. water and sewer Systems because that would be too costly
TOXIC WATERS; Repair Costs Daunting as Water Lines Crumble - NY Times
What a fucked up country
Kris: my lovely 14 year old daughter was talking to my mom last night, and she said she'd love to be a teacher, but "it wouldn't support the lifestyle she wants to live". I rent a two bedroom modest apartment, so she didn't get that line of thinking from me. Sad.
I'm posting here while listening to my husband and his journeyman discuss the marriages that are ending because of the job. This is insane. I'm
Talked to a guy tonight who is celebrating his 86th birthday - he asked me what I had been doing for the last few weeks, hadnt seen me out much - he lives right behind me... I told him I had been pretty busy on the computer all day every day - he looked at me with a kind of vacant look for a few seconds - and then he said - I'm really glad that I dont know what is going on any more....
dr munch, it has been getting worse since I can remember. When "Greed is Good" became an instant classic; I knew we were screwed.
km4 wrote:
Please, that was a loan. In fact, I remember being informed that we were going to make money on the deal.
Comrade Kristina wrote:
Please don't let it happen to you two.
Lehman’s Hidden Leverage ‘Shenanigans’ May Haunt Fuld (Update1) - BusinessWeek
“Repos were just one of many ways to hide losses,” said Janet Tavakoli, president of Chicago-based financial consulting firm Tavakoli Structured Finance Inc. “All of the former investment banks used those techniques. All of them borrowed too much money and were overleveraged.”
“Mr. Fuld did not know what those transactions were -- he didn’t structure or negotiate them, nor was he aware of their accounting treatment,” Hynes said in a statement. She also said none of Lehman’s senior financial officers, lawyers or outside auditors raised concern about the transactions with Fuld.
Mr Fuld is a sack of shit! > If he didn't know how his company was being run, he is guilty of fraud, and if he knew what was going on, he is guilty of fraud ....... get the soap bar ready for a nice hot shower in the pen Mr Fuld!
My wife had to go out to do something the other day - she got up ahead of me, and by the time I had got up and got my coffee and sat down with my computer, she was out the door - came home 7 hours later, said "what did you do all day?" - I'm still sitting in the same place, with my computer on my lap... I said "you would not believe how swamped I have been all day!"
No way to keep up with all the posts on CR...
ResistanceIsFeudal wrote:
That's one message, I'm sure.
But there is another message, learnt from the experience of older peers and parents: if you have something, it will be taken away.
All these things can be snatched away in a bad month in the 'markets', or if customers fail to buy, or through zero interest rates, or through looting of successful companies by private equity, or through extortionate property taxes, or through a corrupt police and legal system, or through continual stress of all these things.
Nothing you have is ever safe, and the material rewards of hard work are increasingly a mirage. Better to work for a bare material existence, quiet personal satisfaction, and a peaceful inner life. Each man or woman according to their talents and inclinations.
Comrade Kristina wrote:
In Silicon Valley, among the first generation immigrants, I do hear of marriage problems due to abuse, drug dependencies, job losses, but almost never for over working.
Never TJ. I'll make him quit first and take on more hours myself. I'm so proud of him for swallowing his pride and finishing out the day today. 13 hours worth. No benefits but at least he gets time and a half for anything over 40. Hubby just said one guy accidentally put it on speakerphone today when his wife called today and she basically said: "If you don't come home this weekend, don't come home at all"...He's been gone for three months with and worked everyday. This is just sick....
Mike in Long Island wrote:
YouTube - The Yardbirds - Over Under Sideways Down - 45rpm 1966
Comrade Kristina wrote:
I wish I had something useful to say. All the things that pop into my head are "find another boss", "start your own company" and a whole host of things that are stupid and unrealistic. (Like anyone has time/energy to do that stuff after 12 hours of shucking romex.)
Anyway, that's what guys do to show sympathy. We throw out useless advice and see what sticks.
It is my experience that white women have not had to deal with this on a large scale and are ill equipped for it. Minority women tend to be used to sacrificing. I say this as a white woman married to a black man. It seems to be cultural. I know I am blessed that my husband is working at all because I know what the UE rate is for black men. Perhaps that is the difference?
ShadowInventory wrote:
Yes. It's why I secretly hate all of you. I don't have time, but it's so friggin interesting.
The good thing about most of the divorces nowadays is, there is no squabbling over assets...
SNAFU wrote:
During the bubble, I saw a bunch. I left in 05, so maybe it's changed.
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
Whoever gets the house can rent out a room to the former spouse... win- win...
Comrade Kristina wrote:
The year I graduated from High School, and the most drafted class of the Vietnam War.
In my husband's trade they've let go as many of the "oldsters" that had benefits as possible. Now they are working the apprentices to death because they don't have to pay them as much and as in hubby's case they just decided they were going to not give him his health care and raise as promised. He's been with them a year.
Comrade Kristina wrote:
Happy to hear that.
Even though I'm an I.T. geek we went through a similar situation ourselves. For quite a number of months I averaged over 100 hours a week working two separate contracts. Although we slept in the same bed my wife only really saw me for a few hours on the weekend. She nearly left me then, and I didn't have a clue at the time.
A guy'll kill himself to help his family and not realize he's actually losing it.
Wow adornos, I didn't realize you were that old (not an insult). You are about the same age as my ex boyfriend, he was born in ' 51.
Friends walked on their home a year and a half ago, and divorced a few months ago over money, and a month ago they received an IRS bill for $50k for HELOC action...
They decided to split what they owe, you hardly need an attorney for that~
Comrade Kristina wrote:
i was born in 48
Yep TJ. As much as we respect you for "providing" we married you for the companionship and love. I can't sleep with money. I can't make love to money. If I can, I need to be shot.
Comrade Kristina wrote:
Well, you're not a banker.
YouTube - The Glamorous Life / SHEILA E.
everything in motion has momentum
and the mo around the tubz is negative very negative
are we poisoning ourselves?
i know ive become very jaded in my pov
time for us as a country and as neighborhoods and communities to re-connect with people and work together
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
HELOC forgiven debt is taxable? I didn't realize it was omitted from the moratorium.
Happens in high-end academia all the time. You get tenure around the time you finalize your divorce.
mock turtle wrote:
I have noticed something. Especially in wealthy neighborhoods in Dallas, there are neighborhood directories, neighborhood parties, people going to a lot of effort to find out what others do. Sometimes they need business contacts or help, and often get it.
In Los Angeles, people often help, but it isn't nearly as organized. Each person seems to have to build an maintain their own network.
dr munch wrote:
hubby's 2 daughters said the same thing. They think nursing will be a better pay day.
Comrade Kristina wrote:
When you haven't any coal in the stove and you freeze
In the winter and you curse to the wind at your fate
When you haven't any shoes on your feet and your coat's thin as paper
And you look thirty pounds underweight
When you go to get a word of advice from the fat little pastor
He will tell you to love evermore
But when hunger comes to rap, rat-a-tat, rat-a-tat
At the window, see how love flies out the door
For money makes the world go round
The world go round, the world go round
Money makes the world go round
The clinking, clanking sound of money
Nursing is a good in regards to money but the hours can be awful. I'm not sure what "lifestyle" she is after. I value my time above anything. It is the only commodity I know of that is absolutely finite.
mock turtle wrote:
We and our friends are doing that now. We have a at home happy hour once a month, another couple does it on another weekend, one more in another weekend. Bring what you want to drink and maybe a snack to pass around. Lots of conversation, suport and compainionship. It does make a diff to people.
Comrade Kristina wrote:
Marrying a doctor?
josap wrote:
hubby's 2 daughters said the same thing. They think nursing will be a better pay day.
LOL. Mercifully too young to have a midlife crisis... everyone else is doing it, so why don't I? Regrettably I have a brother who started out in music education and after a semester decided he should do something health care / nursing related because the money is better. Even had a salary expectation in mind. He's nineteen.
The funny thing is that one daughter isn't going to make it to nursing school - no focus & no ability. The second one may graduate, but won't be happy.
The goal is money. Be all and end all.
TJ and The Bear wrote:
Marrying a doctor?
An eternal strategy there... but why not a banker? I hear they make even more.
Comrade Kristina wrote:
Only our little slice of it, plenty more after we're both gone.
That's a great idea josap and can work depending on your neighbors. I only have two neighbors though. My one neighbor is a prison Baptist preacher who is an absolute darling. Her husband is retired, bitter, and just likes to shoot things and boss her around. My other neighbor hates everything. He is in his 60's, a redneck Southerner that hates black people as well as anything or anyone else. He wouldn't even speak to us for the first couple years we were here caring for Mom. As it turns out; he's gay. He just came out of the closet about a year ago and now his "nephew" living with him....You really can't make this shit up. He told my Uncle he didn't like any "n*****s" in the neighborhood because they "steal shit". Karma came along and bit him in the ass. His "nephew" stole all his power tools for some crack about six months ago. He has come to really like my husband (much to hubby's chagrin at this point")/
josap wrote:
The second one may graduate, but won't be happy.
Happiness is so twentieth century...
Money is the way.
edit: Excerpt from "Teachings of the
"
Comrade Kristina wrote:
These people are friends rather than neighbors. Just people we have met over thte years.
You hit a raw spot TJ. I got off the elevator one evening to visit my Mom while she was in the hospital after her stroke. The drugs they had her on made her incontinent. As I was getting off, her 19 year old twit nurse was walking buy and didn't see me. She said: " I have room 2xx tonight, that's going to be a shitty mess". She was talking about my Mom. She almost needed a doctor when I was done with her. In it for nothing but the money and the chance to win the "doctor lottery". I prefer to call them unpaid whores.
She wants to be a doctor, but marry a lawyer. She likes "stuff". My "stuff" is a paid for Toyota and a wicked collection of Chicago Bears memorabalia.
Comrade Kristina wrote:
You also have the makings of a great screenplay!
dr munch wrote:
She wants to be a doctor, but marry a lawyer. She likes "stuff". My "stuff" is a paid for Toyota and a wicked collection of Chicago Bears memorabalia.
LOL, well at least she'd have relative financial equality. Sounds like she may be another successful product of our culture machine. Or just too young to know any better.
Ha Anak, you are probably right. The preacher lady did both my parents funerals and her and I cried together for hours preparing for Mom's funeral. Picture that. A Baptist Southern lady preaching over her Methodist and Catholic neighbors funeral with their Wiccan daughter....
Don't know if I'll ever get back, but sometimes I do get homesick for 'merca.
Comrade Kristina wrote:
LOL. If you want to 'distract' him, tell him about chat roulette. I believe it's basically facebook for naked masturbating guys...
(disclaimer: I only know this because I helped out in classifying some stills of ChatRoulette... 85% of the pics were extremely ugly). :mind blech:
Oh my, I bet you can do the "Superbowl shuffle" too....
Oh, they patched everything up now. The first "nephew" is in jail on warrants but the second nephew seems to have redeemed himself and brought all the tools back. He is actually a very talented woodworker and spends all day every day out in the driveway making wood furniture. The really uncomfortable part of the whole thing was having my preacher lady friend tell me he was gay. I honestly hadn't a clue. It all makes sense in retrospect but I was a clueless. The bird feeding should have been a tip off.
Where do you live now Anak?
New Territories, Hong Kong, Special Administrative Region, China
Actually passed through Panama City a couple times as a kid for family vacations back during the Kennedy Admin . . . .
How about a movie trailer?
New Film Exposes Dirty Canadian Oil : Climate and Capitalism
Ecosocialism or Barbarism: There is no third way
Relationships are hard in the best of times, and when the planet is in the midst of a mass extinction, even the bewildered herd knows something is wrong, which makes the whole culture insane.
Oh wow Anak. How exotic. I've always dreamed of traveling.
Anak wrote:
My niece from Hong Kong stayed with us for a year in Mill Valley in the Bay, and attended high school while living with us.
It was a trip having a teenager around, and getting some more insight into Chinese culture.
She is my brothers adopted daughter, now at USC.
I have spent quite a bit if time in Asia.
To be fair, if you had to clean other people's shit every day...
Comrade Kristina wrote:
Not so for me anymore, but I guess I remain so for my Hakka neighbors!
Standing offer: free session of mountain hiking and milky tea for CR denizens who venture this far.
Comrade Kristina wrote:
Uh oh. I feed the birds too. Should I tell my wife?
dr munch wrote:
Now that's sick.
Anak wrote:
Any ex revolutionary leaders among your Hakka neighbors?
Hey all, a reminder about daylight savings - the site doesn't support it, so if you changed your time zone, you need to change it back (in Settings->My Account->Edit).
adornosghost wrote:
Nah, they're fully co-opted. Being indiginous rural villagers allowed them under colonial admin to directly own and pass down land to their progeny. These village clans are very well represented in the local gov't.
After a succession of overleveraged landlords on HK island, I can truly say I prefer the unencumbered village variety in the New Territories.
And the hiking is great:
Google Image Result for http://image20.webshots.com/21/5/62/58/210656258VXtLje_fs.jpg
Not much to offer, but a small observation of life.
Returning from taking my mother to an appointment on Friday and stopped by a small bakery noted for vanilla iced coffee cake rings. When backing out, noted a hand-lettered sign on neon pink paper offering puppies for sale at a farm down the road. As the sign said:
SHIT - ZUs for sale.
Laughed like hell.
Anak:
Great photo. Simply great.
g'night folks.
The 60 min episode that JD mentioned above (via Paul Kedrosky)
Michael Lewis on 60 Minutes
Anak wrote:
Looks wonderful! My brother owns a house in Hong Kong, but have not lived in Asia for a while (2000).
I'm about due for some Asia time, so, who knows, maybe a hike?
I usually go out to stay for a short while, but it has turned into years several times.
homedad43 wrote:
Can't claim to have taken it, but it's looking south from very close to the mainland border. We live on the other side of that far range.
Koop - The time is right again !
adornosghost wrote:
Yeah, I tried coming out for a couple year long stints as a young man, but after '85, got caught for good. Fore I knew it, I was no longer young!
You're sure welcome if you do.
Anak wrote:
Google Image Result for http://image20.webshots.com/21/5/62/58/210656258VXtLje_fs.jpg
Pretty hills, like bay area hills now after big rain. The mountain ridges, earthquake country?
Anak wrote:
Thanks!
JP wrote:
Watched it, and kept thinking everybody on ponzi street is out to destroy a good thing called US for their self gratification! Politicians included.
SNAFU wrote:
HK is close enough to the ring of fire, but no major fault lines around here.
good thing, since most of inhabited HK looks like this, a major earthquake would be really devestating.
Google Image Result for http://photos.cosimaunderwater.com/images/A_4/6/5/1/1564/Mongkok14_6bb56.jpg
Comrade Kristina wrote:
You know, there are often whole tv shows with less plot than that one paragraph post. Given your gift for conciseness, had you considered writing commercials or press releases?
SNAFU wrote:
Enjoyed that, and appreciate Lewis' take on incentives-- and continuing involvement of "the experts" at "cleaning up the mess".
That this sort of thing is finally making it to MSM prime time has got to awaken at least some.
Anak wrote:
I see other people have similar opinions.
Maybe this should just be a reality show. But then, that's unscripted.
Ok, can't quite say that with a straight face.
ResistanceIsFeudal wrote:
The happy rich people I know like success, often like their families. However, not that many of them got rich in order to have stuff. That seems to be something people who borrow or inherit lots of money seem to do.
Am I off base here?
Anak wrote:
I agree. I forget who said it first: The people don't know enough to be properly outraged. Michael Lewis / 60 mins is doing a public service, imho.
some investor guy wrote:
You're confusing success with stuff.
I think the snow is not as big a factor as the derivatives and liar loans, so this chart is based on a peak period of peak fraud; hence, there is no true meaning going forward with relationships that rely on past flawed data.
I am sorry for your loss!
JP wrote:
I tend to think they don't have enough detail to focus their anger. People who were happily ignorant in 2005 don't quite know who to blame, fire, unelect, sue, etc.
The people who had a focus for their anger in 2005 still blame the same people, they've just added the financial crises to the list of things they hate group/occupation/party X for.
some investor guy wrote:
That seems to be something people who borrow or inherit lots of money seem to do.
Am I off base here?
I don't think so. It used to be the difference between the establishment elite (the 'aristocrats') and the nouveau riche, who were often successful capitalists but crude, unrefined in character and outwardly acquisitive and materialistic. The aristocracy would not eschew wealth, but avoided ostentatious displays more than necessary. That we are so obsessed with appearances and the display of status symbols suggests we are as a culture still not used to having money.
Doc Holiday wrote:
Duffie is a very bright guy. I've spoken with him. There are some people who have a much clearer and broader picture of the economy. Duffie is one of them. Shiller is another.
some investor guy wrote:
More heat than light: guess you're saying the focused are prone to more ignorance than the oblivious..... and I'd agree, sadly.
ResistanceIsFeudal wrote:
Maybe it also says something about the lack of any formal class system in the US.
some investor guy wrote:
compacted for better storage
ResistanceIsFeudal wrote:
It's common sense. If you flaunt your wealth too much, someone will come steal it and burn down the mansion.
....."Pretty hills, like bay area hills now after big rain"....
Walked around Mt Tam during last days, it is so pretty right now.
How many folks in Marin are stressed out due to being fired / underwater? Do they talk about it now? I have friends here who refuse to talk about negative things.
Forget Goofing Around: Recess Has a New Boss - NY Times
Once again, the state has to step in. This time to teach children how to play.
way ot Can someone reclarify the difference between specificity and sensitivity for me. Say someone was positive for a highly specific (96-100 % ) test than they would have a 96% chance that they have that disease but if negative for a low sensitive test it would not rule it out.
Sensitivity is the percent of people who have the disease that are correctly identified as having the disease.
Specificity is the percent of people who dont have the disease who are correctly identified as not having the disease.
Is there anyway to turn the truck around?
http://img41.imageshack.us/img41/5161/g60018g6865.gif
rapunzel wrote:
Yea, Mt. Tam is my backyard, and I have the National Park across the street. My neighbors seems blissfully ignorant, with way to much money for their own good. I'm sure more is going on beneath the surface.
A 100% sensitive test would get everyone who has the disease, but there would also be false positives.
Jonathan wrote:
My wife runs a knitting group and gets all sorts of donated yarn -- more than she could use. Through craigslist she connected with a teacher from a poor district who was looking for yarn for classroom activities. She was teaching her fourth-graders to knit. They loved it. They didn't have any skills of their own. She said, "Go to their houses and there's no books, no toys, not even much furniture. But a TV in every room."
Around there (Salinas) usually both parents are out working ag. Oldest kid holds down the fort. Family life is warped, kids don't learn anything from parents. I subbed kindergarten once in a similar district. Talked with the teacher beforehand about some ideas for activities, role-playing, and she said, I can't give these kids that freedom. It doesn't work. They're not social enough.
Human debris from the great eCONomic system. Whatever side you're on in the immigration debate, the only reason they're here is because ag wants the cheapest possible solution in money terms for their picking services. Not cheap in human terms, nor cheap to the country. What do they care?
Adorno's Ghost:
...more going on beneath the surface...
Yes, I thought so. This area has the head in the clouds, a little bit. But people are fit, biking up these hills, I must say !
And this weekend, it sure looks magical...everything green, fresh clear air, flowering trees.
Bob Dobbs wrote:
I don't disagree that ag is hunting for the cheapest labour, BD, but it's usually because many growers don't possess any pricing power at the retail level in order to warrant increases in prices. It's almost like a tragedy of the commons situation, in which an guy who attempts to pay fair wages is going to be undercut almost immediately.
There's a reason that consumers only pay less than 10% of their disposable income on food, and it's not because farmers like razor-thin profit margins. It's usually because the retail level has a vice to their nuts...and veggies...and fruit.