Economic Outlook: Review of Possible Upside Surprises to Forecast
Submitted by
CalculatedRisk on Sun, 03/14/2010 - 1:17pm (225 comments)
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Isn't it true that personal savings is imputed from inflows and spending? If so then a lot of "rebuilding" of personal balance sheets is actually repudiation of debt service.
Rob, personal saving is just income minus spending. Positive cash flow is one way to rebuild the balance sheet - the other, as you note, is debt cancellation. Both are at work ...
best wishes
CR,
Why would you expect China to revalue the yuan upwards against the meiyuan?
With wage deflation, total net savings might be weaker than expected. As long as debt falls faster than income, we are good.
However, until credit creation picks up, no recovery, no monetary inflation.
I think CR is not looking behind the numbers: Even all out civil wars lasting no more than few years also have similar "positive" surprises. You could not find a civil war just by looking the GDP of a nation. Just like in the 1860's, guys just arrived to New York port went straight to battles...
sporkfed wrote:
As long as you define "we" as people with earnings potential. For some that means senior vittles time.
Bob Shallit: IRS visits Sacramento carwash in pursuit of 4 cents
Anyone post this yet? Did the IRS donate their brain to science or something?
I meant households in general but your point is valid. It's hard to type on the iphone
my precise thoughts.
Rob Dawg wrote:
For some that means senior vittles time.
... percolator-cooked ramen with catfood casserole for all!
Drug cartels are laundering money all over California and the revenuers go after a carwash for 2 cents plain, for each agent?
I think economists are suffering from CFIT condition, controlled flight into terrain. The instruments are showing a possible recovery. But it is just abnormality inside hurricane in which the air pressure tubes (used to measure airspeed, altitude, speed of ascent/descent) are showing for now all the right numbers while the plane is actually descending rapidly and already way too low. The hurricane itself has been caused by money printing and all out pimping/tuning of the meters in order to cover up mammoth bank losses in Wall Street.
??? I must say I'm confused.
Mish is too political now because he skewers Obama and Dems. What about when he skewered Bush, Paulson, and Republicans?
And Krugman isn't political???
LoserBeachBum wrote:
+1
Thu, 10/29/2009 - 5:46 am
Meta-comment.
What we are doing now with the economy is what in the aerospace industry used to be called "flying the instruments and not the aircraft."
Up side would be when people learn,again, to live within their means.
Of course that means millions of walkaway home debters, fewer flat screen TVs and less steak for dinner.
We are flying under the hood, doing monetary instrument training...
I guess it's not what he says, but how he says it.
josap wrote:
Up side would be when people learn,again, to live within their means.
Won't happen... Looting is next and will continue for years, or until collapse. TPTB and its banksters are just ahead of the trend.
Mish is political now because all he talks about is politics.....and its not even intelligent discussion at that. Although Krugman does not hide his political views, most of his posts are about economics. The two are worlds apart....
I think one of the great things about CR is that its largely apolitical.
Rob Dawg wrote:
The medical equivalent is "watching the monitor not the patient. "
mhdoc wrote:
The medical equivalent is "watching the monitor not the patient. "
Except that you still treat the patient, instead of cleverly jury-rig the monitor to show a healthy pulse. Hell, with enough clever jury-rigging you really don't even need the patient.
Mish strikes me as a crusader rabid.
downside risk report
Went to one of the big local malls today. I was in the sporting goods section of sears. There were litterally sections with empty shelves. Maybe they are just waiting to switch to the next season but it was strange.
Also, the Baby Gap is closing. They mention you can go see them at their "permanent" location and give the address of another area mall. The one that is closing looked pretty big and permanent if not for the GOOB sale.
Probably the most depressing thing was that it appears all of the fashions of the 1980s are coming back. The place was full of Izod, Polo and what looked like Members only jackets in all of the clothing stores.
So if the US runs a a trade surplus, that means that dollars are coming back to the US and that means that fewer dollars will be available in non-us countries. That has to affect its position as the reserve currency, doesn't it?
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
Mish strikes me as a crusader rabid.
An UnderDawg...
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
I think it's accurate to say Mish has been getting rabid on the public unions lately. That said, I have some friends, as liberal as the sky is blue, which recently started to complain to me about the public sector unions and their outsized pay and benefits! I was surprised. (Of course, they got to see some of the fiscal abuse of state employees up close and personal, and it quite offended their sensibilities.)
He's been foamenting at the mouth lately, no?
While Mish has indeed gotten shrill to the point of fingernails on a blackboard he isn't a three handed economist like Krugman. PK has proven time and again that he willingly sacrifices what little credibility the dismal science retains when it suits his political purposes.
Weather Helm, as I noted on the previous thread, and it is all about the tone. I object to him calling people "vermin and parasites" among other comments. I phrased it as "too political", but it is really too full of anger.
Just to be clear - I've known Mish for years, and I got him his first writing gig and helped him start the blog. He is a nice guy, and I've told him on the phone I thought he was going off the deep end ... it is his choice - and my choice. Sorry.
best wishes
6.0, 5.9, 6.0, 6.0, 5.9, 6.0
Mish is very excellent analyst but his cure is more the same...ban unions and give more power to "free markets" aka big corporations. And when that will not work...well, ban voting and give more to the corporations! Half-side handicapped.
I've never read Mish's site and wouldn't no where to find it. But it sounds like he saw how much money Glenn Beck is making and he is angling for his own show. Calling people vermin and blaming unions should get him some development meetings. Of course that would make him a parasite, but a well paid one which is all most of them care about.
Interesting phenomenon i've noticed lately is a lot of onesy-twosy heavy equpiment for sale on the side of the road (near their farm) or freeway in the Central Valley. There's always something for sale-that's not unusual, but the sheer amount of bigger stuff out there, looking for buyers... is overwhelming.
Rather than ask why public employee unions, or other unions, are making so much, the question that doesn't appear to be asked is: why is everyone else making so little. Every time a union gets killed or dismembered, everyone else is going to make less because a bunch of freedom loving individuals have no collective bargaining power.
Just, my opinion. Feel free to disagree.
LoserBeachBum wrote:
ban unions and give more power to "free markets" aka big corporations
"free markets" and big corporations are largely a contradiction in terms. In a "free market" no producer enjoys market power or quasi-monopoly on product. We have nothing resembling that except at the small business level. The rest is interlocking fiefdoms.
Anonymous Bosch wrote:
because a bunch of freedom loving individuals have no collective bargaining power.
Freedom-loving individuals wouldn't bargain collectively unless there were no other option.
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
Just watch out for the emissions stazi. Too hard to hide the big iron.
Mish has been around about as long as CR. He is into libertarianism and the Austrian School of Economics both leads the devotees into a pseudo religious experience thinking that they have the divine revelation on politics and economic and if only everyone listened to them it would be heaven on earth.
The only real legacy I know of from the Austrian School of economics is that its founding thinker, Ludwig von Mises, was able to get the Austrian central bank is such great shape during the Great Depression, that it make Austria a profitable target for the German take over of Austria in the 1930s.
Mish is for big corporations? And wants to be the next Glen Beck? Welp, I was going to defend him and talk about how Mish is very specific in his rants on public unions and their abuses, but I'll just stick a cork in it, having realized it's too OT now.
Anonymous Bosch wrote:
Yea race to the bottom.
You'd think there would be an excellent arbitrage opportunity for somebody in one of the other 49 states to pick up stuff on the cheap, but what would you do with it?
YouTube - 11 Marty Robbins Legendary Country Singer Big Iron
""free markets" and big corporations are largely a contradiction in terms. In a "free market" no producer enjoys market power or quasi-monopoly on product. We have nothing resembling that except at the small business level"
It is the end result. "There will be only one ". Free markets produce big winners and those big winners will make sure those free markets will disappear. Winners wanna just be...winners.
Anonymous Bosch wrote:
Public sector unions consistently vote for a pay cut for me, and a reduction in long-term security for me. Always. How? By pushing for (and getting, mind you) higher taxes and government fees, via their lobbyists.
So I'm curious how I'm going to "make less" when the public sector unions are finally banned and dismembered.
"Consumers have surprised us in the past with their free-spending ways and it’s not out of the question that they will do so again."
That's a rather inane observation by Yellen. Did consumers surprise during the 1930's? Everything since then is basically irrelevant, given that all those instances were juiced (in a way that cannot be repeated).
CalculatedRisk wrote:
Don't forget asset appreciation (no snark), or changes in accounting rule (snark)
So I'm curious how I'm going to "make less" when the public sector unions are finally banned and dismembered.
By whom, and with what power, and how? You'd need a secret police society to obtain that end.
In a society in which unions are banned, managers and owners never know what the people who work for them actually think, to their own detriment.
.....I can imagine that our country's wages will have to decrease in order to compete. Or, we can continue to send business overseas since we can't afford to demean ourselves with the piddly low-paying work and jobs.
josap wrote:
Other people have come to more or less expect to receive those MBS proceeds, sell those tvs, and make steak for customers.
pavel.chichikov wrote:
WTF? Pavel, you're off the deep end there.
In places and trades where there are no unions the wage scale is even lower than where union and non-union compete.
CalculatedRisk wrote:
I've read Mish for as long as I've read CR, and Mish has always been political in a way that CR simply is not. That said, CR's characterization of this is 100% accurate IMHO. The recent language has gotten WAY too shrill and angry. The "exterminate" stuff is reminiscent of a different time entirely.
The greatest contributions Mish has made to my understanding are his excellent explanations of deflation (must. include. credit.), and him and Keen have both done a great job explaining the relationship between credit creation by private banks and expansion by central banks.
Mish's heart is in the right place. He really needs to understand how even his supporters hear words like "exterminate" when he's talking about groups of people. Not welcome language at all.
pavel.chichikov wrote:
Easy. Union activities, such as striking or picketing at your place of work, get you fired. Then, the public sector union is effectively banned.
I'll be plenty happy with public sector unions if we can have true taxpayer unions with the right to refuse to pay taxes.
So it's safe to say, he had been on double-secret probation for some time now?
Part of repairing this nation is everyone takes a cut. It's going to be a big one also. Unions are not doing their part. Time will expose their greed just like Wall Street Banksters and Politicians.
Pavel, you're off the deep end there.
Why do you think there were unions in the SU, even though people were amply exploited? Do you think the PTB were not aware of how dangerous it is to lock the cover over a pressure cooker?
TJ and The Bear wrote:
Surprised? We've got family law attorney on here. Ask them how often people are suprised at what their wife, husband, or child actually believes.
Union activities, such as striking or picketing at your place of work, get you fired.
You don't know what you're asking for.
some investor guy wrote:
True, so we will have a spiral down until RRE, CRE, tvs and steak are afordable to the average wage earner - if they save for what they want and stop putting it all on credit they can't pay back.
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
Are you saying that he's caught the dread Denninger Syndrome?
Oh, dear.
Let me know if he breaks out in ALL CAPS or totally bold.
It will be interesting to watch.
NW
The Bonus Marchers got their $2 Billion (worth about $75 billion today in constant gold value) in 1936 and went to town, spending like Benjamin Roth hadn't seen anybody spend since before 1929...
And then came 1938, when the money ran out~
In the grand scheme of things unions are much closer to the bottom than the "1%". So by all means, let's impoverish them along with the rest of the "99%" where they belong.
some investor guy wrote:
Other people have come to more or less expect to receive those MBS proceeds, sell those tvs, and make steak for customers.
Only a true marketing genius could deliberately reformulate in the minds of the masses the tertiary economy as a self-sustaining "consumer economy".
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
Well heck... if the government gives out free money most people will spend it. That day might yet come, given that there are no remaining alternatives.
Experts agree, free money is the best kind.
JD,
I think "Big Iron" meant .45's
ResistanceIsFeudal wrote:
Are you confusing oligopolies and oligopsonies with perfect competition?
Economists fantasize about perfect competition, but we live in a world of oligopolies and oligopsonies
Lobbyist Ben Dover wrote:
I don't know why people keep saying that unions are not taking cuts - every single union I know has accepted cuts, has accepted increased premiums for health care, many have accepted furloughs - not happily, but they have accepted them.
And then people say, "well, they didn't accept ENOUGH cuts." Well, at some point you have to ask, "is everyone to be impoverished - yes - impoverished - for the benefit of the richest? When I see the financial sector accepting severe financial hits for THEIR FAILURE, then maybe I'll look over to see what union responses might be. Instead, I see see that record bonuses were paid out last year.
If the US cannot do better by the majority of its citizens other than to ask them to become impoverished worker-slaves, then it has failed as a country.
I seldom get an opportunity to play Marty Robbins and the title sort of fit the content, but you caught me...
oligopsonies
Is that a symphony played on sticks of butter?
Rob Dawg wrote:
How long have we been saying around these parts that even if you beat on the dash until the engine light turns green, you still need oil in the crankcase?
I think we will see an interesting gap in generational spending patterns and this will influence the economic recovery, but in a very small way. Many people who were hurt, were older, we could call them the Madoff-set (set A) which is a group that is at one end of the spectrum, while on the other end, we have younger 20-something punks with tatoos and metallic shit hanging off lips-set (set B).
In the middle ground of this spectrum, is set Z, which represents all unemployed people, not to say that set A and B are employed, but .... I'm kinda losing the train of thought I had there ..oh shit....
Ok, yes, the recovery..
Generational spending from reckless, let the devil may care consumers, will be offset by extreme caution from those that are living with the heart wrenching pain of cash burn. The middle ground battle for consumers will be a
AB,
Look back at union declining membership in private business and the growth in Government membership. Then look at import of goods compared to business leaving the US. Start back in the sixties. To me it becomes obvious they went after government as politicians need their voting block/money and they approve union wants almost unanimously. There is a problem to be examined. Just like banksters different angle.
JD,
I have been listening to Marty Robbins since I was born probably. I am pretty sure I heard him live when I four years old and Roger Miller when I was six. My childhood was ugly I tell you!
I'll be glad to eliminate unions when employees
aren't sacrificed for bonuses or to enrich the
corporate boardroom.
NorkaWest wrote:
Economists fantasize about perfect competition, but we live in a world of oligopolies and oligopsonies
Yet the academic training of economists and business-people relies upon a fanciful economy in which perfect competition exists. The math works out much better this way. Is it accidental that this education allows for the flourishing existence of a real world like you describe, to go unrecognized and unheeded?
Mish got one thing right. We have witnessed the rise of a bureaucracy class that has expanded to the point of capturing operational governance.
CR,
If you're going to ding Mish for language then please state it as such, because if the standard is politicization then you need to review your other links.
I find Angry Bear much more political vs. economic than Mish, not to mention much more highly biased then the subtitle would suggest. Oh, and dare we even mention PK?
p.s.: Regardless I'll continue to read all of them.
You don't see the irony in that? Individuals can be blown off because they're not a [cohesive] force to be reckoned with.
ResistanceIsFeudal wrote:
Ding ding ding! We have a winner! The set of assumptions that goes "hand in hand" with Adam Smith basically describes an economy of only small businesses with no one vested with market or pricing power...all participants have to be price takers. It is really quite restrictive and nothing like we have today.
Smith, in his day was much better known for his Theory of Moral Sentiments. And he saw labor as the source of the growth in a nation's wealth. In that respect, he and Keynes have much in common regarding crimes committed in their names.
TJ and The Bear wrote:
I did and was greeted with silence. I think we are outnumbered here and they are hoping we'll just get tired of the obvious.
AB,
Yep and the same applies to Corp Lobbyist, Special interest Lobbyist, Now days the ones left out are The People!
energyecon wrote:
I am so stealing that. [with attribution.]
CalculatedRisk wrote:
We are blessed here at CR to have icons, which are used for venting, and thank God people like me are allowed to swear and rant and rave.... Where else would I go, could I go, shall I go??
Erin Go Bragh
**Really.....well here's economic reality as it exists today **
Total US debt as % of GDP
http://www.investorsinsight.com/cfs-filesystemfile.ashx/__key/CommunityServer.Blogs.Components.WeblogFiles/thoughts_5F00_from_5F00_the_5F00_frontline/image001_5F00_350C70EE.jpg
Wow. 18% of personal income in the US is now from the US government (also known as taxpayers, current and future).
pavel.chichikov wrote:
There is a fair bit of that around here...
km4 wrote:
Wow! No wonder the Fed's so worried about inflation.
Pavel is a ping-pong...after one collapse, going to witness another one while swearing that this cannot happend...Russian Greek combined tragedy
Theme tune:
YouTube - Boil the Breakfast Early
YouTube - Rocky Road To Dublin - The Chieftains and The Rolling Stones
I'm not a libertarian. And liberalism/socialism does serve a purpose. But Calvinball serves neither viewpoint.
Time for dinner. Thanks for the discussion, everyone.
:food: now.
ttfn...
Lots of good insights into the key playas in The Great Recession.
Congress members accuse Timothy Geithner of coddling Wall Street. Wall Street accuses him of abetting socialism. Yet when the history books are written, Geithner will be recognized as Barack Obama’s key lieutenant in the struggle to right the economy and fix the finance system. Economically, Geithner’s plan has worked better and more cheaply than anyone could have imagined a year ago. Politically, it threatens to undermine Obama’s presidency. Is Geithner a courageous public servant doing the right thing? Or have his years as a player in global finance made him loath to change an industry that needs fundamental reform?
The Atlantic mag: April 2010
Rob Dawg wrote:
Some of us simply are not invested in the discussion. Period.
JimPortlandOR wrote:
More
EE,
Did you see the Simmons link I posted for you (right after your
last night)?
energyecon wrote:
Tru dat. And probably better left to other forums.
AB,
The only labels I go by are conservative (financial) and independent. This battle will only be decided by the people if all goes down. If not TPTB pull off another one. Enjoy dinner.
TJ and The Bear wrote:
Yes! Thanks for the reminder and thanks for the link, that was an interesting read.
Have I raved about kcoop lately? Ken, you aren't the skittles, man you are the unicorn that produces! Just digging up the link to review again...
I liked the bit on the deep water wind power and generating ammonia, cool technical solution. Need to see industrial scale at work and understand the ramp up requirements.
edit: I thought it is a key insight regarding the age of the existing energy infrastructure...the point about lithium is on target, though the rare earths as a whole - even as mining is restarting, the beneficiation plants to turn it into a usable form are only available in China - with a 6-7 year lead time to build one IIRC. And blew me away with the ME pop. growth stats...
repost of link: Matt Simmons on energy & water
Downside surprise ? T-Bill spike to 11% ?
Actually, nothing requiring money works when robots do most of the work. In most industrialized nations the number one energy consumption system is making compressed air...to the assembly lines. So commies already won unless you can be better than multi-point simul-super-welder robot....except you cannot.
The most likely upside surprise appears to be coming from consumer spending
Okay, so where are consumers supposed to find the money to spend? The eCONomy can't go anywhere without final demand, and final demand requires cash J6P doesn't have.
I guess the top 1% could adopt the other 99% and spend accordingly, but I'm not holding my breath.
energyecon wrote:
We all don't rave enough about him -- HE'S THE MAN!
YouTube - The Dingle Set
TJ and The Bear wrote:
That would be the mortgage you stopped paying.
Since our expensive kid is home today we are having the traditional St. Patrick's Day meal. Corned beef, cabbage, potatoes and carrots all boiled in beer. Most years it is whatever beer is cheapest. This year the cheapest beer in Ralph's was a 12pk of Heineken for $8.88. Clearly there are severe dislocations occurring in the US food delivery network for this to be happening. There should be $5 12pks of Hamms or some such dishwater but no. Dryfly is probably olde enough to remember the British dock stikes and their last gasps of industrial expertise. This is just too similar to make me comfortable.
josap wrote:
That "stimulus" has been happening for 2+ years now, so it's unlikely to serve as an upside surprise.
p.s.: I'm still (happily) paying my landlord's mortgage... assuming she still even has one.
boy reading this made me feel quite cheery. And this guy writes for Marketwatch -- in the cheer squad with CNBC.
The rise and certain fall of the American Empire - MarketWatch
*Corned beef, cabbage, potatoes and carrots all boiled in beer. *
This is very strange.
When looks and smarts are gone, fanagle is in. Kinda sounds like old age in Merica, nah, I'm refering to my government.
TJ and The Bear wrote:
Hopefully you are on top of the very latest NODs so you can exert maximum leverage. Used to be; I'll be gone, you'll be gone. Now it is; "You aren't paying, I'm not paying." YAPINP. You heard it here first.
If the citizen does not spend money other than on essentials and a few luxury items thhen imports are going to drop a lot. If imports drop a lot then transportation, especially trucking will stay down.
If we don't continue to spend the big bucks then a host of service biz will go away. CRE will be hit. If the citizen is not purchasing - they are not paying taxes. If taxes are not coming in - the county, state have to cut back.
It will continue to be a slow slide into third world squalor.
TJ and The Bear wrote:
No kidding, though we are about to get out of that game. I found four properties on the tax rolls for our landlord, all SFH or townhomes. My biggest concern was the guy would go belly up while we were working our way through the two year lease. It's up in May and here's hoping the zombie funds the house purchase that has been all green lights so far...closing still set for April 1st (my schedule).
pavel.chichikov wrote:
Why? The alcohol helps break down the fat in the meat, and lowers the boiling point to avoid toughness and by the time you toss in the veggies all that remains is the flavor.
YouTube - Chieftains & Friends
The rise and certain fall of the American Empire - MarketWatch
There is an alternative history: A freeze into a dreadful immobility.
I agree with you except for the slow part
all that remains is the flavor.
That's what I'm wondering about.
You pour off the beer? Down the drain?
Rob Dawg, I'm gonna have to agree with you. The deleveraging that the domestic economy is experiencig is nothing more than coughing up debt that can't be paid or that is underwater which is transferred to the government, so government debt is going up because of this and also because of QE. Net, net, we as a nation are not saving. The government is spending money it doesn't have, just look at the budget deficit and trade deficit. This is not savings
Ben's press break?
pavel.chichikov wrote:
I said "12pk." One for the pot... one for the cook...
km4 wrote:
We also set a new record for the USA for the percent of current spending funded by borrowing... SAAR of 37.5% as of 3Q2009...
nova wrote:
Well, the taxes aren't being paid, which is the #1 (and foremost timely) indicator that all is not well.
TJ and The Bear wrote:
Consumption needs to be goosed ... Maybe a new stimulus package and a tax cut? Maybe a new war, maybe just the reality of austerity. Perhaps Greece is pointing the way for us all?
"Katrina Kards" for everyone. The side benefit being traceability for taxation purposes.
Doc Holiday wrote:
We're all Greecey now?
Consumption needs to be goosed ... Maybe a new stimulus package and a tax cut? Maybe a new war, maybe just the reality of austerity.
If those are my choices, I take choice number cash.
War is my last choice. Too many unintended consequences.
This may not fit?
YouTube - Robin Williams - Live at The Met - Guns, God, and Fish
Walk time... blood pressure calls...
Dr Marc Faber has got it right. He says the money supply is NOT contracting because the government is spending money by borrowing and printing to buy all the bad debt to keep it alive and is also spending on the stimulus package and unemployment benefits. The problem in 2008 was that oil was closing in on $150 per barrel and credit creation by the normal means just stopped because loans were defaulting as fast as they were being created. What was needed was ever increasing money velocity and credit creation to keep the bubble from popping and this was not possible. I think people who no longer are paying on debt that was extinguished will start spending that money . If foreigners prop up the dollar, over time our government will have debt over 2 times GDP and many consumers who weren't punished enough to learn to save could be back to their old tricks. For some strange reason, I think Ben would be happy with this.
Not strange if you draw a warm bath, fill it with green food coloring, and then soak yourself for an hour.
You'll be the hit of all the parties this weekend.
You might get some puzzled looks next week, so plan to stay home for a few days.
NW
energyecon wrote:
That's a new modern record. You're forgetting how we financed the Civil War.
t r orwell wrote:
I think a lot of those people no longer paying on debt have no money to spend. 20% effective UE can do that.
rosethorn wrote:
If only the NRC would approve backyard nuclear reactors.
Rajesh wrote:
If only the NRC would turn a blind eye to backyard nuclear reactors.
Pellice wrote:
The purpose of a nation-state is to protect its citizens from all dangers.
nova,
That's funny, me too.
My mom & dad liked to go to Knott's Berry Farm for chicken dinners on the weekend in the 60's, and invariably Marty Robbins was playing in the Round-Up theater there, and i'd watch him perform...
I would've been 6 or 7.
If only the NRC would approve backyard nuclear reactors.
I think this fantasy of self-sufficient hiding in the woods is prospective make-believe. This is a global world now, and if there is going to be a catastrophe, it will be global. Better to avoid it.
Hubby still at work since 7am this morning. This is ridiculous. Apparently someone up the food chain really screwed up and they've run pipe and wiring in the wrong place. That is why they've been working all these hours. He's running on fumes now. He's probably lost ten pounds in the past month as he's too tired to eat by the time he gets home...
Vader wrote:
Unfortunately a lot of nation-states evolve to become the biggest threat to their own citizens.
20 Signs That The United States Is Rapidly Becoming A Totalitarian Big Brother Police State
Hat Tip to Panzner: When Giants Fall: Is It So Far-Fetched?
pavel.chichikov wrote:
For the moment at least.
Vader wrote:
That is so wrong on so many levels.
The purpose of a nanny-state is to protect its citizens from all dangers.
The purpose of a nation-state is to protect its citizens from external dangers.
The purpose of a nation-state is to help protect its citizens from some dangers.
pavel.chichikov wrote:
Mars then?
Uranus or bust!
TJ and The Bear wrote:
Most people don't know how the original story "Colossus: The Forbin Project" ended.
Rob Dawg wrote:
The purpose of a state is to make sure that its citizens can live without fear. So that if you do a good day's work, follow the rules of society, live prudently -- it'll all be okay. Make a system for living that works.
Have we got that? Have 80 percent of Americans got that? Or are 80 percent of Americans failures? Tell me from on high.
Yeah JD. I think Marty was at someplace outside of Phoenix where people could sit in converted covered wagons to listen. Getting old and being uncool allows me to listen to him again where once upon a time it would have been social suicide.
There will be no stopping government spending if we are to have this strange, new type of "growth". Fascism, communism, corporatism, whatever, things will not be the same and unemployment levels will be very high. The quality and the quantity of jobs will not compare with that seen 10 years ago. Russia went broke fighting in Afghanistan and building up its military to counter star wars 20 years before we did because they had no means of borrowing to spend money they didn't have, but rather had to dump hard currency like gold and oil to survive. And Raygun declared victory when Russia, gold, and oil collapsed. He was too presumptuous just like Dubya who declared mission accomplished on the warship.
Rajesh wrote:
"Mars is amazing!"
See my comment above.
Bob Dobbs wrote:
"He who sacrifices liberty for security deserves neither."
pavel.chichikov wrote:
This is as close as it gets (pardon, for posting this again):
The Big Idea - Small Town Nukes - National Geographic Magazine
My favorite is the Toshiba 10 megawatt that runs for 30 years.
Mars then?
Better catch the express. The local might take years.
This is the purpose of the state:
We the People of the United States, in Order to form a more perfect Union, establish Justice, insure domestic Tranquility, provide for the common defence,promote the general Welfare, and secure the Blessings of Liberty to ourselves and our Posterity, do ordain and establish this Constitution for the United States of America.
pavel.chichikov wrote:
*If only the NRC would approve backyard nuclear reactors.*
I didn't write that.
Most Americans are not smart enough to be mad. If that counts as failure then yes.
nova wrote:
That can't be right -- there's no mention of free healthcare, billion-dollar banker bonuses, etc.
He was quite versatile and could sing in many styles, this is one of my favorites...
YouTube - Marty Robbins Sings 'Man Walks Among Us.'
7/12s is a killer, CK. I hope your man gets off it soon. Take care of him as best you can. You can both get through this. The only plus in the equation is that he's got no time to spend the money.
I pulled 42/10s years ago. It cost me a marriage.
Sorry pavel, Rajesh wrote:
If only the NRC would approve backyard nuclear reactors.
Anonymous Bosch wrote:
Not always a negative.
So, dummy, don't. tell. them.
tj,
I think free health care might come under "promoting the general welfare." I think the banker bonus part will not be covered until the rewriting in 2015
In that case, broward, once I picked myself up, it turned out to be a blessing.
TJ and The Bear wrote:
I'm sorry I wasn't clear enough. I'm saying it's a rigged game and has been for decades. This will become more clear, if it isn't already.
You disagree? Government should let the game be built to the specs of the wealthiest, to run us all through it to their benefit?
I think the banker bonus part will not be covered until the rewriting in 2015
That's only five years from now. But a lot can happen.
A Japanese friend just sent me some photos of Kobe at dusk. I've never been to Japan, and I'd like to see it.
CalculatedRisk wrote:
That goes for HCN, too. The more blogs, the more commentary, the more people think they have to scream to be heard.
pavel,
At your age I would suggest sooner rather than later.
Bob Dobbs wrote:
Oh no, I totally agree. Just trying to make my own point, too.
I went into a Rite-Aid store this afternoon, it's like K-Mart now.
Huge aisles and large tracts of empty space.
Now add in a lack of customers.
nova wrote:
I would have added a couple of extra lines: your liberty to swing your arm ends where your neighbor's nose begins. Liberty manipulated to cause the debasement of fellow citizens is the worst sort of tyranny. Oh yea, and something about responsibility to your neighbor, for all of those who like to claim this is a Christian country.
pavel,
At your age I would suggest sooner rather than later.
Hey, social security doesn't go into deficit until 2037.
Or subtract loads of customers. Which ever makes the numbers look better.
My wife and I made the decision to travel now rather than later. Later has a tendency of never coming.
I said more than a year ago, that things will be so bad for so long that it's no longer the talk of the town.
Then one day we'll wake up and realize that it's getting better, now we aren't even close.
pavel.chichikov wrote:
Ummmm... SS cash outlays are already exceeding cash receipts.
"He who sacrifices liberty for security deserves neither."
I've spoken to people who had to make the choice above. For some reason it's not so black and white when you're having to live that choice.
I presume CR has removed Mish's link.
Eh, who cares?
Much more anger to come. Libertarians have a maladjusted belief system that doesn't mesh well with reality. I see it with Billy Beck a lot, too. The guy practically begged for a Robber Baron World and now that he's gotten it, he can't shut his piehole and take his medicine like a man.
pavel.chichikov wrote:
Paying off the IOUs the gov't has been writing to social security for decades may become onerous long before then.
broward wrote:
And the other parties do?
broward wrote:
Rite-Aid's been on the downhill slide for years. Our local Rite-Aid's been like that for as long as I can remember. I wonder what keeps them afloat beside cheap ice cream.
Edit: the KFC down the street just closed up. I thought those things were recession-proof.
nova wrote:
Pretty much my thinking now. I stopped worrying about retirement several years ago, which means I have an extra-big whopper cushion for changing jobs.
My wife and I made the decision to now rather than later. Later has a tendency of never coming.
Actually, I've done enough traveling. I'd like to see our cousin, Fr. Guy, but he's in Detroit, hardly a romantic destination.
We were in Italy years ago, and the place we liked best was Assisi. But we don't know anyone there.
We have relatives in England, but somehow it doesn't attract.
I have friends in New Zealand and Australia, but that is too far away.
I guess we'll just stay here and see the cherry blossoms.
TJ and The Bear wrote:
Sure, they own the system, don't they?
Consumer sentiment is down, yet spending is up. Maybe.
Top 10 Reasons to Doubt the Retail Sales Data | Wall St. Cheat Sheet
broward wrote:
You say that as if it's a bad thing.
Paying off the IOUs the gov't has been writing to social security for decades may become onerous long before then.
Alas.
broward wrote:
...with special sauce!
Bob Dobbs wrote:
I'm still seeing stores closing each week.
Is the new job in Boise or Seattle?
broward wrote:
I'm surprised someone hasn't set up a retail implode-o-meter. Perhaps it's too much work.
Vader wrote:
I hope I don't live to see our state get this big and powerful, 'cause if it did it would be the greatest danger going. It might do terrible things like pork all its middle class and give their wealth to the
steelhead wrote:
Seattle.
It's supposed to be contract-to-perm but I'll believe it when I see it.
I'm part of the replacement for a well-known consulting company which decided to milk their customer too hard.
Seen it a lot, like at my last three consulting companies, and I specifically put on my resume that I was looking to exit consulting because of the ethical conflicts. Off to dessert with my gf.
"scone (profile) wrote on Sun, 3/14/2010 - 5:41 pm
reply ignore user
Consumer sentiment is down, yet spending is up. Maybe.
Top 10 Reasons to Doubt the Retail Sales Data | Wall St. Cheat Sheet
"
January was downgraded from 0.5% up to 0.1% up at the same time that February beat consumption beat estimates.
I expect February will be downgraded down to negative next month as well.
Now we just have to have income growth ...
We'll see what develops on the flip side. Maybe I'll get a replacement job tomorrow. Maybe I'll get a real job.
Nitey nite.
broward wrote:
Make yourself virtually indispensable. Always worked for me.
Bobb Dobbs wrote:
The $2.5 trillion 'saved' money in the SS trust fund has been spent and replaced with 'special issue' IOUs. I believe this is the year that we need to start borrowing money to fund those IOUs.
Some more material here: Fiscal year Trust Fund Operations
Anyone ready to comment on whether selling treasuries to repay SS IOUs contributes to the national debt?
Congratulations, and good luck, Broward!
Hahahahahahaha "indispensable"....Ahahahahahahahaha no such animal....
Comrade Kristina wrote:
I've known a few.
The person who sets up a complex system which nobody else bothers/has time to learn.
nova wrote:
We have done the same. And we are enjoying every minute of our adventures.
Bubblisimo Gerkinov wrote:
You don't have to set them up, just keep them running well enough that it doesn't pay to replace them.
Bob Dobbs wrote:
KFC by work closed in Dec.
Congrats broward.
Speaking of well known: De[constructing/functing] Ernst & Young | zero hedge
I wouldn't be sad to see these people go the way of Arthur Andersen.
Jonathan wrote:
There are two numbers: total debt (about $12 Trillion) and marketable debt (about $7 Trillion). Selling Treasuries to redeem SS investments does not change total debt but it does increase marketable debt.
Vader wrote:
Impoverishment IS a danger. Just ask Wall Street.
Perhaps the savings rate is not as high as you expected because people do not have the money to put into savings or to pay down debt.
Rajesh wrote:
Ahhh thanks. That makes sense. So if $130 billion was contributed in excess SS contribs last year, then that is moved to the general fund and IOUs written that increase the total debt, but do not increase marketable debt.
Obviously, your explanation then kicks in, once we need the IOUs turned back into real cash to give to SS recipients.
I wonder how many retirees would be vaguely alarmed to hear this explanation...
Could be an accurate statement depending on how you define 'citizen'.
scone wrote:
THAT"S THE BIGGEST PILE OF NONSENSE I"VE EVER READ!!!!!!11!!!!!!
Wow. My bad sense of humor caused everybody to leave.
Bob here from the Department of Oligarch Security... I'm afraid your attempts to re-introduce ideals of free market capitalism into a highly public forum constitute a clear and present danger to the United States of America. Cease and desist or military action will be taken. Your refusal to cooperate will be considered a crime under the Patriot Act, or the Patriot Act II, or the Homegrown Terrorism bill, or whatever the hell other bill we slid past during the reign of the Chimp while you were out shopping and eating Freedom fries.
JP wrote:
Snurfle. You just proved your own point. Those who scream loudest tend to be ignored after a while.
(That in no way describes me, no never.)
You're just wrong for that RIF...freedom fries BWAHAHAHA
"What we are doing now with the economy is what in the aerospace industry used to be called "flying the instruments and not the aircraft."
I confess I don't understand what this means. I am an instrument rated pilot. The most basic rule in instrument flying is to pay attention to what the instruments are saying and ignore what your body is feeling. Vertigo will kill you. Seat of the pants flying has to give way to the much more reliable instruments, which are an accurate representation of aircraft attitude and performance. You should always "fly the instruments". By this, I mean look at the instruments, interpret what they are telling you, then make the proper inputs to make the aircraft do what you want it to do.
Jp,
you need to replace nonsense with crap, add the phrase &@&$&$ and insert a nuclear explosion icon. Good first effort though.
let me know how that works out for you. i have exactly the same issue. the top managers at the last consulting firm I worked for actually made fun of me for my "sense of ethics" because i refused to claim to a customer that i was an expert in something i knew little about.
i eventually lost my job with that firm.
RockyR wrote:
Salesman at a software company I used to work at would make fun of engineers who told him he was misleading customers: "Whassamatter, you afraid you won't go to Heaven when you die?"
And now the salemen are in charge everywhere. Nothing matters but the sale, and the passing of cash. Making good after? That's just a detail.
ResistanceIsFeudal wrote:
If anything much goes wrong with the financials, we may be about to see TPTB go to even further lengths to 'save Main St by saving Wall St'.
If some outrage finally breaks out, we'll start to see how badly they'll want to cling onto power.
My guess is they will cling pretty hard. Witness various posts on mandatory id cards, registering as a dissenter, secret surveillance, ever tighter codes of public behavior.
Bob Dobbs wrote:
wow. i think that sums it up perfectly.
Bob Dobbs wrote:
'em and forget... can't wait to see how that turns out 
Smart amoral scumbags, anyone?
And now the salemen are in charge everywhere. Nothing matters but the sale, and the passing of cash.
"Love em and leave em," aka fu
Jonathan wrote:
If some outrage finally breaks out, we'll start to see how badly they'll want to cling onto power.
My guess is they will cling pretty hard.
They'd throw their own mother under the bus before they give up their ill-gotten gains. Which could be interesting to see.
Saw a tiny bit of 60min's tonight, railing on Wallstreet being out of touch with Merica. Productivity zilt, bonus's were gaged against each other.
Well that's a dumb ass software company....I body slam assclowns like this every week
Bob Dobbs wrote:
to add icing to the cake. on one project i worked with those clowns, the salesperson actually convinced the customer that reason the project eventually failed was that I had convinced her that i was an expert at something i wasn't! the project was undeliverable as sold, and they scapegoated the one guy willing to stand up and say: "this won't work".
classic.
edit: customer didn't buy it. salesperson was kicked off of the account. she still has her job.
ResistanceIsFeudal wrote:
Jesse's Café Américain: About That Seemingly Irrational Need for Bonuses...
Rajesh wrote:
Point taken.
Hubby finally got off at 8 pm. He thought he was going to get fired as he talks to the VP the same way he talks to anyone else and the VP happened to say something extra stupid to him while he was up to his calves in muck digging on his 21st day in a row of working; 12 hours in to the day. Luckily the owners Daddy has a soft spot for him or today would have been it. Hubby said another guy got his divorce papers served to him at work Friday. The third one in a month. He said some of the guys haven't seen their kids in two and three months. Yet, we have thousands of unemployed electricians. Chew 'em up and spit 'em out. The next guy will take even less in compensation. We are finished as a nation...finished.