HAMP: About One-Third of eligible Trial Mods approved for Permanent
Submitted by
CalculatedRisk on Fri, 03/12/2010 - 11:28am (233 comments)
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So one-third of the people who applied to get rewarded for their irresponsible financial decisions were accepted?
That's great news.
Any day now this program will prove more cost-effective than if we'd just paid off everyone's principal from the get-go.
Really.
CR, stop breaking down the numbers. They don't expect anyone to actually do that when they release these reports.
HAMP! It is all good! But remember those precious little plants DO NOT need extra watering!
Permanent until it isn't.
hoocoodanode?
one year from now a post is made about re-defaults
hoocoodanode?
March 12, 2010
"The eurozone has struck an initial deal for a multibillion-euro bailout for Greece, the Guardian reported March 12, citing senior sources in Brussels. The sources said Germany, despite large public resistance, had agreed to the bailout. Eurozone states will finalize the package Monday, along with a rewriting of rules governing the states to enforce fiscal discipline. Sources also said member states all agreed on bilateral contributions in the form of loans or loan guarantees if Greece is unable to refinance and that the agreement had been detailed to avoid a court challenge in Germany."
that would be a good band name...
HAMP = FAIL
But what about the over two-thirds?
CR has no future in PR.
Um... Active Perm = 17% and Pending Perm = 9% nowhere neat 1/3 getting permanent offers.
I can tell you that at least one is in limbo; I just told the guy to
keep on paying since they haven't notified him of anything. They
set summary judgment out of incompetency, and then cancelled
the date. His payment is rent equivalent at this point and his kids
like the area. Hmmmm, at what point can I start arguing waiver?
""The eurozone has struck an initial deal for a multibillion-euro bailout for Greece, the Guardian reported March 12, citing senior sources in Brussels"
Well well, you Russian American...is the motherland already calling? Maybe Germans are out to get you...
HAMP will guarantee years and years of losses for Fannie and Freddie as they hold these mortgages on their balance sheets at negative carry.
ghostfaceinvestah wrote:
Not for the 168,000 mortgages being paid that otherwise wouldn't have been paid.
Are the Greeks still marching?
Consumer sentiment dipped in early March - Yahoo! Finance
sportsfan wrote:
At a cost of?
And you know they wouldn't have otherwise been paid?
ghostfaceinvestah wrote:
What alternative would you prefer? Take all the losses in one year and go out of existence?
U.S. setting bad example on protectionism - Sarkozy
| Reuters
pavel.chichikov wrote:
That was clear once Merkel made her unambiguous statement more than a week ago to the Frankfurter Allgemeine that I posted.
sportsfan wrote:
At 60K apiece and no principle reduction, I'm not sure that is so.
lawyerliz wrote:
Guardian is reporting that their bailout happens monday. Germany included.
Edit: Found the link.
Greece debt: EU agrees bailout deal |
World news |
guardian.co.uk
Edit2: Sorry pavel, didn't see that you'd already posted it...
Trust me, they wouldn't have!!!! Not in South Florida, anyway.
yeah, stepmasters are feeling the heat.
JP wrote:
The market doesn't seem to care one way or another.
Blackhalo wrote:
Also, how much do you think the administrative costs of HAMP are? There is a whole sub-department in Treasury administering this.
Have we reached Peak Bailouts yet?
pavel.chichikov wrote:
Which PIIG is up next for a hand-out?
From the first graphic if you go to the source document and read the footnote number 4:
I can't recall, but wasn't the Treasury claiming they were going to modify 3-4 million mortgages not just make 3-4 million Trial modifications? Seems the goal posts and the definition of the goal has been retroactively changed to suit the results. Especially considering that the majority of the trial modifications were done with no screening, all you had to do was make a call to the bank and have missed a payment.
Nothing. The shelves are empty.
time for lunch.
3 billion shares on spx traded today, 1 billion on bankrupt penny stock known as C....30% .....I've seen better action at the chicken counter in a chinese supermarket....more realistic too..
It's not clear whether they're right or not...
Blackhalo wrote:
I've been looking, but I can't find a 60K number. What is that?
creditcriminalslovetarp wrote:
I expect another 3pm EST short squeeze, so there is still some hope for action.
noob goldberg wrote:
That whole Greece thingie is so last week.
sportsfan wrote:
10 Billion budget / 168,000 successful mods.
As far as I can see banks are not hiring new employees and
fannie and freddie are just as dumb as before, as far as closing
reos. I see no learning curve. I do see people on the phone trying
to do some real underwriting, but it's far too late.
Cram downs.
Smoot Hawley, glad France is complaining, about time we started
watching our national interests.
And besides, Citi must be destroyed.
Repo 105 is the meme du jour.
CR, why are you asking about a measly 2/3's?
They are in the "saved or created" fantasyland category, get with the program...
fudge_hend wrote:
I guess you need to define "help". If you get in a trial, you can kick the can a bit longer before you are kicked out of your house.
HAMP helps you game the system.
no more shorts... time to squeeze bulls....
Interesting Times wrote:
Exactly.
Edit: Not only do I have "trillion fatigue", and "outrage fatigue", but now I've got meme fatigue.
ghostfaceinvestah wrote:
The original budget for HAMP was $75 billion.
Meaning they've gotten the average cost per successful permanent mod all the way down to ... $444,000.
What, you thought think my first post in this thread was
?
"The market doesn't seem to care one way or another."
Oh, The Market...we shall not make the Wall Street Gods angry or else...man, you Americans (except Elvis) are just a bunch of girlie boys. Not even girlie Mens. Girlie BOYS...
JP wrote:
I see, thanks. I've been in meetings all day/week, so I'm completely out of the CR loop.
Blackhalo wrote:
Not familiar with the budget or any projections or what's actually been spent or where it went.
I do know we could have used $10 billion to stretch the occupation of Iraq out for a couple more months.
LLiz, with all due respect: I've never understood why you think cramdowns will work. I've seen massive cramdowns in a different context (internet bubble burst) and the post-cramdown dynamics can be quite complicated.
thats a whole lot of people back to work....if
JP wrote:
The Guardian is usually quite accurate and when it is posted like this, I seriously doubt that they don't have the correct story:
Greece debt: EU agrees bailout deal
Exclusive: Germany plays pivotal role in potential eurozone rescue package for Greek debts
Mook wrote:
Last time I looked up the budget for the trial it was at 10BB. But if it is 75, I begin to wonder how much it would cost for Uncle Sam to just go out and BUY health insurance for the 30 million uninsured...
RE wrote:
fudge_hend, they have definitely moved the target - it is now "offering help to 3-4 million", it was originally "The Home Affordable Modification program will help up to 3 to 4 million at-risk homeowners avoid foreclosure ..."
I'd say there is big difference between "will help" and "offering help to"
best wishes
I think "up to" are the key words, personally.
Perhaps we're running out of the "pretend".
CalculatedRisk wrote:
Well, if they are laying the rhetorical groundwork for cutting their losses and stopping the madness, then good for them, no?
MrBeach wrote:
I suspect there is a "pretend" machine somewhere in the bowels of the Fed. Someone get BB on it stat.
I think that we are also witnessing another bazooka moment.
... While ready to bail out the Greeks if only on terms of "rigorous conditionality", European leaders are hoping that the rescue will not be needed, that the draconian package of austerity measures announced by Prime Minister George Papandreou will be enough to calm the markets and stabilise the euro.
EU leaders are to rule next week on whether Papandreou is doing enough to slash the 12.7% budget deficit by four percentage points this year, part of his ambition to cut the deficit by 10 points over three years. ...
RE wrote:
EU leaders are to rule next week on whether Papandreou is doing enough to slash the 12.7% budget deficit by four percentage points this year, part of his ambition to cut the deficit by 10 points over three years. ...
This is all so restore confidence in the other PIGS.
From the website of the same name:
The Home Affordable Refinance Program gives up to 4 to 5 million homeowners with loans owned or guaranteed by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac an opportunity to refinance into more affordable monthly payments. The Home Affordable Modification Program commits $75 billion to keep up to 3 to 4 million Americans in their homes by preventing avoidable foreclosures.
Making Home Affordable - About Making Home Affordable
some people used to be hopeful that 3-4mn modifications would actually be done, they were also hopeful it would stop the delinquent housing inventory from lowering prices when the shadow inventory had to clear the market
You beat me to it but here is the original.
From the treasury September 9th, 2009: Making Home Affordable - HUD Secretary Donovan Announces New FHA-Making Home Affordable Loan Modification Guidelines
Seems they decided they didn't mean what it appears they said after all.
MrBeach wrote:
Oh I'm confident in them alright.
They are definitely laying rhetorical groundwork, but I'll take the under on any loss cutting or madness stopping.
MLM wrote:
Yeah, there goes that optimism thing again. Gotta lay off the
Just a reminder that the BFF Poll is still open.
I hear complaints locally that these loan mods stay in limbo for months, which might explain some of the discrepancy between numbers approved as permanent, and numbers rejected. "Other" likely includes a group we might call "nobody will return my phone calls..."
So are we counting yesterday's freak closing, or not?
MrBeach wrote:
No question. The EU wants to calm the market. I just think that just as before, the bazooka will be tested by the market. These are draconian cuts requested from Greece that will be very difficult to achieve especially because it likely will induce a deflationary spiral.
They can only hope that there are even many more tax cheaters than they presently think there are...
EvilHenryPaulson wrote:
Clear FAIL on that point. Despite the Mods, delinquency inventory is rising. More people are entering default than cures+liquidations are clearing. The trend of rising delinquencies is not even slowing.
It's the BFF Poll.
Bank Failure FRIDAY.
I say we don't count yesterdays failure.
I say yes and no. +1, right on, or -1 you win...and pony up to the bar for a chip in.
MrBeach wrote:
I suspect there is a "pretend" machine somewhere in the bowels of the Fed. Someone get BB on it stat.
The pretend machine is called 'television'. The timing for the rollout of 3d television to consumers isn't accidental...
RE wrote:
The question really is the following: Is it a bazooka (of significant, but in the end limited firepower, ala TARP), or is it a printing press combined with bent-over-backwards regulators?
"These are draconian cuts requested from Greece that will be very difficult to achieve espeically because it likely will induce a deflationary spiral. They can only hope that there are even many more tax cheaters than they presently think there are... "
Unlike Americans, they had and have to live in the real world with real consequences...imagine that!
ResistanceIsFeudal wrote:
---there is a reason they call it "programming"
ghostfaceinvestah wrote:
I wish you'd quit saying that. It upsets me.
I say we nominate LBB for America's new Lord Protector so he can lead us from our wicked ways.
When HAMP is over, someone should remember to post a poll for what % of re-defaults there will be after 1yr
I've been resting on 200k mods and ~50% re-defaults within 1 year since the program was announced
talking about this should be right up there with C4C and FTHB not changing anything for the better, or how the Fed rolling its balance sheet out of the short term liquidity programs into long term risk positions is not the same as exiting
edit: and how could I forget the other successes like turning the Fed into a toxic holding pond with Maiden Lane I/II/III and plenty of unrecognized losses, I must have forgotten about that after Sack's statements that the Fed managing to roll their balance sheet from short term small risk to long term big risk was to be lauded
JP wrote:
"When you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains - however improbable - must be the answer," said Sherlock Holmes.
It's not that cramdowns will work, necessarily. It's that everything else won't.
Mass foreclosures? No one has the manpower or the institutional knowledge. Not the banks, not the courts, not the state and local governments.
Payment holidays? Deprives the banks of revenue that they desperately need to stay afloat today, with no guarantee that they'll recoup those losses in the future.
Extend and pretend measures like HAMP? Requires that you either establish firm qualifying metrics (which eliminates far too many people) or throw it open to everyone (which balloons costs and invites fraud on a massive scale).
We ran out of good options four years ago, and out of acceptable options 18 months ago. All of the options left are bad. And the longer everyone sits around playing with half-measures, the worse the best of the options become.
MLM wrote:
OK, let me make you feel better. On subprime and Alt A, the trend has slowed down.
Because there are so few current loans left to go delinquent.
MLM wrote:
EvilHenryPaulson wrote:
Sounds about right. Over 5 years, my bet is 80% will ultimately default.
Thanks, but no thanks. Already full time job in Asia, doing exactly that. Maybe have time some freelancer gigs but otherwise, you are your own...
MrBeach wrote:
I believe in the limited firepower theme. In fact, I believe that the firepower is limited everywhere including in the U.S. Japan and likely worse, here we come. This should be obvious from the fact that it took this long to get to this point. Spending will lag far behind reality, is generally not targeted to resolve personal debt (this thread excluded) and therefore will be very ineffective IMO.
However, there will IMO be a 1933 moment. It's just a number of years away.
Mook, you said it great!
Well, when you ad your margin to LIBOR, you come up with an
ahem, clears throad, unexpectely low number.
MLM wrote:
Speaking of upsetting you, hopefully I didn't offend with my comments last night. I recently quit smoking again (after a three-month fall off the wagon), on which I blame anything I've done that people find offensive.
EvilHenryPaulson (profile) wrote:
Take a look at the HAMP metrics on the doc that CR linked. Of the 168k and change permanent mods, only 27.8% involved some sort of principal forbearance.
I'd bet that at least three-quarters of the 72.2% that don't will eventually re-default. Probably more.
Because absent that, why bother?
Good for you Noob.
lawyerliz wrote:
---You might want to have that looked at.
You don't have to worry about principal forebearance if
you have a big enough 2nd mtg to ignore.
Mook wrote:
Mook, that is forbearance, not forgiveness. The principal balance is just tacked on to a balloon payment.
Those 27.8% will definitely default eventually.
MrBeach wrote:
There is a "printend" machine
At this point I think there is a Infinite Improbability Drive at the heart of the fed.
noob goldberg wrote:
What, comparing my wife with a boat or a plane? No, I came away thinking you might be psychic...
The proposal of for my guy was to tack it on the end
40 years from now. Hahahahahahah.
When he's in his 80s somewhere.
There is a word for this, actually several.
Beginning with nutz and progressing to loco by way of unbelievable.
holding homes off the market does have some benefit to the government, especially if people are looking after them
I just chose 1 year because it's easy to remember, and you can do the same poll for the 2nd anniversary when we look back to the first poll on the 1st anniversary
Mook wrote:
I've have never seen a definitive answer to: What is the rate at which foreclosures can be performed?
Just for giggles, what is that rate (pretend we start RTC2) and how long to clear out the current number of foreclosures?
lawyerliz wrote:
What a pain. I hate smoking, but quitting is such a distraction. But thanks for the encouragement.
hire me and I'll foreclose on homes faster than a wahoo....
I should also mention: Cramdowns will beget cramdowns. So the workload will also increase past what the banks have staffed.
JP wrote:
This will be tougher than the RTC because the housing vacancy rate never declined after the S&L crisis
lawyerliz wrote:
LOL! Yup, that is the standard. Step 1 is to lower the interest rate to as low as 2%. Step 2 is to extend the term to up to 40 years. Step 3 is to forbear (not forgive) principal.
So every loan with a principal forbearance is also a 40 year term.
That is some serious can kicking. But eventually these borrowers will throw in the towel.
RE wrote:
I agree and I suspect it will be the result of policy errors resulting from misplaced central bank confidence. To their credit, they have invested heavily in the moral hazard we find so appalling. But I believe it is this same moral hazard that will be their undoing - they will eventually scale back on their support and discover that their laden, leaden economic miracle will once again begin to plummet. And they'll get ever closer to the death by (hyper)inflation or death by (hyper)deflation choice.
ghostfaceinvestah wrote:
There is a stat which worries me so much that I hesitate to look it up or compile it: portion of homeowners with free and clear ownership who have tax or HOA liens. In CA at least, you could cross index the mortgage and property tax data.
I hear the best way to quit smoking is a trained
. Every time you light up, it bites you.
An attorney at Shapire & Fishman, one of the big foreclosure firms told
me about 8 months ago that their firm, in Palm Beach County would take
15 years to clear at the rate that summary judgments were being scheduled
then. I assume they've gotten a bunch more since.
The attorney was not on my case, just telling it the way she saw it.
MLM wrote:
French women are amongst the most beautiful creatures in the world, and I'll just leave it at that.
Another very
ey video, starring Mish and Marc Faber. And Blodget is stealing his lines from the CR comments now.
faber and mish we're doomed and washington can't do anything about it: Tech Ticker, Yahoo! Finance
What difference? They are at least 50% understaffed now. Maybe 75% and
maybe 90%.
" The proposal of for my guy was to tack it on the end
40 years from now. Hahahahahahah. When he's in his 80s somewhere. There is a word for this, actually several. Beginning with nutz and progressing to loco by way of unbelievable. "
Sorry about this but you sound like a German lawyer in the 1930's, doing his/her job to the "T" but still knowing it will lead to hell.
You really think this is a significant number?
No leading necessary. We are in hell right now.
Mook wrote:
The lower interest rate alone makes housing more affordable.
People do need housing whether or not they think their home is an 'investment.'
Once people get rid of the 'investment' idea, housing becomes just housing.
some investor guy wrote:
Stay away from foreclosure.com or you'll keel over if you look at the delinquencies, even in high-income areas.
lawyerliz wrote:
---I doubt LBB can see that from the high horse.
This is my revenge for all the stupid things I've seen the banks do over
my career. . .
And all the incredible sloppiness from beginning to end.
lawyerliz wrote:
Sounds to me like you are doing God's work.
JP wrote:
Depend on whether you mean "clear out" as in sell, or "clear out" as in bulldoze.
Thanks for the honest statement...we will be in touch (the resistance
Most people who are free and clear and don't pay taxes are dead,
with no relatives. Or, it's a crack house or something like that.
In Florida.
People will let insurance drop on purpose. After they pay off the
house. Dumb.
Vonbek777 wrote:
I'll try that if the Allen Carr method fails. If nothing else, it's taught me that brainwashing is an effective way to deal with significant life changes.
sorry, need to vent before I burst
HAMP will absorb shadow inventory, demand for autos must shoot up 100% soon, the FR's liquidity interventions were an unqualified success, the bottom has passed in housing, C4C ended the economic problems in June, the inventory cycle will save everything, the rest of the world has no bearing on the US economy, all that remains is a long choppy march upward because none of the debt, retirement savings, cost of living uncompetitiveness, etc matter any more -- false alarm -- if only the NBER declares an end to the recession before their customary 18 month waiting period, there will be no double dip
33 1/3 is good for records.
ghostfaceinvestah wrote:
. . . and live where?
Do you think people will prefer staying in their cars?
You keep saying FAIL and you don't have anything else to say.
sm_landlord wrote:
Hotpads maps that data along with formally for sale homes. Yes, it's awful. However, I thought that didn't include defaulted for tax reasons. I would expect HOA NODs would be in there.
Sun's Nemesis Pelted Earth with Comets, Study Suggests
I wonder if rogue dark stars work on faith. Enough people believe, and it shows up and belts your planet.
A high end real estate broker was saying that lots of alleged
high end folk are saying they got involved with Bernie Madoff.
An acceptible explanation of their impending failure? She thinks
not even Bernie had that many clients.
ghostfaceinvestah wrote:
Heh, good catch. I knew that at one point, but forgot about it.
It's still the most effective of the three steps. Cutting the interest rate to 2% isn't going to do much since (Kristina aside) not a whole lot of these borrowers are sitting on punitive rates to begin with - most were ARMs, and we all know where LIBOR is these days. And Step 2 is just stupid. What, I wouldn't have been able to afford a 30-year PITI payment, but I'd be golden with a 40-year? Please.
But, yeah, it's not going to drive compliance the way forgiveness would.
I'm beginning to think a 50% re-default rate is optimistic.
sportsfan wrote:
Did you read the stats? 57% of those with a permanent mod qualified because of "loss of income".
If you don't have a job, what the hell difference does it make if your mortgage rate is 2% or 6%?
Vonbek777 wrote:
That's a good analogy since they both work fabulously for works of fiction.
HomeGnome wrote:
I've visited. I have the tshirt, some photos, and a bottle of hot sauce. Hell - Grand Cayman - Reviews of Hell - TripAdvisor
MrBeach wrote:
I don't expect hyperinflation. The Fed is under political pressure not seen since the late 70s/early 80s and then the 30s. In addition there is a credibly small but growing threat to its charter from the left and the right. It is in a box. I don't think that Bernanke wants to be remembered as the Chairman that was in charge when the Fed was abolished.
Therefore, I expect the Fed to act ever more cautiously even in face of better knowledge. This is now political and therefore much more complicated. Politics loves simplicity and not solutions that need formulas for a better explanation and are are difficult to comprehend by the average voter. You don't win elections that way.
How Citigroup, CEO Pandit Turned Themselves Around - Yahoo! Finance
"The company has been broken into two parents that encompass the still-sprawling Citi empire: Citicorp, home of the new and improved Citi; and Citi Holdings, where the company's rancid assets have gone to die."
Investing in Chinese shopping malls is a great strategy
I'm glad to hear we are saved.
Wildly OT:
rosethorn<
You ever have DesChutes
?
HomeGnome wrote:
Black Butte Porter!
Mook wrote:
You're assuming "don't have a job." That is not the equivalent of "loss of income."
If you can't accept that an interest rate of 2% makes paying for housing easier than an interest rate of 6%, then I am at an utter loss to say anything at all.
I take it you have heard of two income families . . . or extended families with some measure of income?
The Lorax wrote:
YouTube - Pink Floyd 1968 Set the Controls For The Heart Of The Sun
The Home Affordable Modification Program commits $75 billion to keep up to 3 to 4 million Americans in their homes by saving another big banker bonus year.
Mook wrote:
sportsfan seems to think that since the only option is living in a car, people will "choose" to make a payment for which they have no money because they "prefer" not to live under a bridge.
Of course, logical solutions like living in a smaller rental unit, moving in with relatives, etc are not solutions. It is stay in your underwater house that you can't afford, or live in a car. No in between.
stockpiling
'Astonishing' growth in Chinese oil demand: IEA - Yahoo! News
RE wrote:
Ben Bernanke, The last Fed Chairman, has a nice ring to it...
Principal Writedowns and the Fake Stress Test « Rortybomb
scenario/breakdown of stress test vs 40-60% loss on junior 2nd liens for big banks....
good breakdown
Nope. Apparently it's good.
Have you tried Thomas Kemper? That's another semi-local one.
noob goldberg wrote:
That's pretty much where I start, and then I just add on layers of maintenance from there.
Blackhalo wrote:
The Last Fiat Fighter.
lawyerliz wrote:
A high end real estate broker was saying that lots of alleged
high end folk are saying they got involved with Bernie Madoff.
There's a reason they are called "Broker"...
Shocked, I tell you!
Do other firms use Lehman's accounting 'drug'? - MarketWatch
creditcriminalslovetarp wrote:
Saw this yesterday. A simple explanation of why we won't be seeing more stress tests anytime soon. They're just too stressful.
sm_landlord wrote:
The Last Fiat Fighter.
The last gravity fighter...
Ummm, the hardship letters are an art form.
You were doing ok, then you
-lost your job
-got your hours cut
-got sick
-got divorced.
But now things are much better because you
-got unemployment insurance or a job
-got your hours back
-got well again
-got married to a high income spouse.
-got you mom to move in and contribute
-are renting out several rooms and here's the lease.
This is no snark. I write them all the time and haven't lied ever.
ghostfaceinvestah comments = dumbass statements = FAIL
You're assuming "people will choose to make a payment for which they have no money."
That's even dumber than Mook's equating "loss of income" with "don't have a job."
You can just keep your BS running on to your heart's content and find another straw man to pummel if you want.
I find your comments not just unhelpful, but absurd.
It is still raining.
Wow. I just figured out how to use my ignore button.
lawyerliz wrote:
It is still raining.
Economic metaphor?
SF Mayor Newsom to run for Calif. lieutenant gov. - MarketWatch
Newsome-Hey is that your wife over there?
Govt. Staffer- yep, sure is, aint she a peach!
Newsome-Yep, sliced in natural juices is how I like em...
Govt. Staffer-Hey your married right?
Newsome-Kind of.....but always free to entertain my best staffers wifes...
what a joke our govt is....
lawyerliz wrote:
how much did you get?
Ghost,
I don't think it will be quite so easy. A very long term loan at a very low rate is a very good bet if you can keep it current.
An awful lot of people will take that bet and wait this depression out. 40 years at 2 percent is insane beyond simple extend and pretend calculus.
I think deleveraging will continue, with a background of higher inflation, unless we get some event, like a real
otherwise, inflation will come and deflation. It is time to begin to consider real prices versus prices in nominal dollars. We are already getting used to near $3 a gallon gas, and folks don't even care. CNBC is all about regularization of the the current economic climate, including a resumption of buying and remodeling.
So here we sit, on a lower plateau than before, with wall street pulling the happy trade out again and hoping those unemployed catch a job and start paying the squid again.
Someday this war's gonna end...
Nope. Just it's still raining.
It also gets worse with cramdowns too.
Just remember that every one of those comps causes more cramdowns like the case of bankruptcy. In truth, it belongs on Mooks list of impossibilities.
Hardship letters...
Calculated Risk: How Not to Write a Hardship Letter
John Stark@
just had the black butte on draft last night
MLM wrote:
It's always that way, for both men and women, but at least you've chosen an interesting project. My wife, on the other hand, is getting a terrible return on her maintenance expenditures.
It's the same as if she spent hundreds of hours a month restoring a K-Car.
the only stress tests left to run will be on short traders... I expect a great % will be diagnosed as insane....I was just diagnosed yesterday...
I put on some makeup to go to court the other day, and
I got all these hungry stares from the old codger set
One got into the elevator facing me with his walker (an atty)
and stared at me all the way up. While trying to chat me up.
See if I do that again.
I know several people who have mortgage payments that are less than the cost of renting the same house.
The other costs of ownership don't tip the scale against owning, especially if someone wants to own a house.
Mook wrote:
When 40% of mortgages are underwater, 60% of mortgages are underwater.
A little variable called price, as a function of supply and demand. Mass foreclosure would multiply what Econ textbooks of my academic era termed "dislocation costs". An unrealistic scenario. HAMP is primarily a backdoor bank bailout, one thing that patientrenter and I have agreed on from the start.
1 currency now -yogi wrote:
It would be if it were working, I guess.
lawyerliz wrote:
Damn, liz, you must have quite the
All social engineering begins with verbal engineering.
Redefine the problem.
Change the meaning of the words.
Use words that have been tested for knee jerk reactions.
Lie.
Smile a lot.
sportsfan wrote:
Sure, if they bought the house in 1991-1997.
creditcriminalslovetarp wrote:
*> Principal Writedowns and the Fake Stress Test « Rortybomb
scenario/breakdown of stress test vs 40-60% loss on junior 2nd liens for big banks....
good breakdown *
Good writeup; thanks
I know for one of the big banks, ~40% of all the (HELOC+Loans) outstanding, the same bank owns the 1st as well.. I wonder if that gives them more room to maneuver the books or less room to do so!
nova wrote:
I continue to be offended by the term "Foreclosure crisis". What about the "idiots-who-overpayed-and/or-heloced crisis"?
where? how long have they owned or when did they buy?
Rents are going down faster than a vegas hooker...
Jeebus. Old men need Viagra to get errect. It never occured to me that even older men need a walker to stand errect.
C: Summary for CITIGROUP INC- Yahoo! Finance
look at the volume...
market equals insanity
MrBeach,
Because with a "Foreclosure crisis" you can engineer victims.
nova wrote:
Good thing us boomers are never going to get old, eh?
creditcriminalslovetarp wrote:
I think shorting right now is really just rolling the dice. Gotta wait until it's absolutely obvious. The rest of the market will take another month or two to figure it out due to
fumes.
A $250,000 mortgage on a house that would sell for $200,000 is underwater.
If the mortgage is for 30 years, what will be the value of the house in 30 years?
Given a typical inflation rate, or dollar devaluation rate, probably over $1 million.
Given the leverage involved with mortgages, present value of the dollar means nothing.
sm_landlord,
At the rate i am aging it maybe tommorow.
sm_landlord wrote:
In Mad Max (or Nova's story), most don't...
sm_landlord wrote:
Good thing us boomers are never going to get old, eh?
Not according to the TeeVee... you just have to have enough money to let you stay young forever by buying the right products. Growing old is a disgrace and the elderly are useless and undesirable.
Citizen AllenM wrote:
That's a big IF. Remember, 60% of Option ARMs went delinquent BEFORE they hit recast. With MTA being less than 1%, most of those borrowers are paying an IO payment of less than 4%, or not much different than a fully am payment of 2%. And yet they still went delinquent.
They key, as always, is equity. Borrowers without equity will eventually default.
Computers are flipping out into the close.
sportsfan-you be smoking some excellent hopium ganja..
250K to 1 million? is that some 3d movie called avatarped...
Nemo wrote:
The opening comment on this thread is really what this commentariat is all about.
It's about proving their collective superiority to the unwashed masses.
It's all about showing how smart and prudent and fiscally responsible everyone who comments on CR is.
" .I've seen better action at the chicken counter in a chinese supermarket....
Last time I was in Beijing I saw someone getting pulled outside to get the shit beaten out of them for cutting into line at the chicken counter.
Wonder whether that will start happening with spx traders as well?
Hey Liz, how does the homestead exemption factor in in FL? Is HAMP available to clever specuvestorflippers- or the more CR-friendly term- landlords and ladies? Do they check?
All social engineering begins with verbal engineering.
---double plus good, Winston
sportsfan wrote:
Congrats, you just joined a very short list - my ignore list.
Since you find my comments so unhelpful, you might as well put me on ignore as well, since I won't be able to see your replies anyway.
poic wrote:
There aren't enough of us to form a queue.
Gee. Sounds like the country I live in
March 12 (Bloomberg) -- American International Group Inc. was unprepared for the financial crisis that forced the insurer to accept a $182.3 billion bailout from the U.S. government, the company’s former general counsel said.
AIG didn’t have the “infrastructure to call upon to respond,” Anastasia Kelly said today at a corporate law conference at Georgetown University Law Center in Washington. Because the company was so diverse and global, “there was no one in charge,” she said. Mark Herr, a spokesman for New York- based AIG, declined to comment.
noob, i hope you are including the quebecois women in that group.
JP wrote:
I would agree that judicial cramdowns, as Tanta originally advocated, are no longer the answer, at least in the worst-off states. Too high-touch and too far past the event horizon for that.
Non-judicial cramdowns are the only option left. It would have to be something easy to explain, simple to administer, and which rewards the right behavior by borrowers, and that over time.
It can be done. It should be done.
But it won't be done, not by this administration, since it doesn't directly benefit the
.
Life goes on.
French women of a certain age as seen in Paris make American cougars look like bedraggled housecats.
sportsfan has fallen into the hopium zone......thinks all of us are evil prudent savants....
I'm thinking he went all in and bet on the Phoenix Suns this year.....
nova wrote:
American International Group Inc. was unprepared for the financial crisis that forced the insurer to accept a $182.3 billion bailout from the U.S. government, the company’s former general counsel said.
Force feeding works well for fattening up the livestock prematurely, allowing a shorter time to market. It's a good thing they kill the animal young, because the stress the force-feeding puts on its body would make its adult existence miserable.
Uncle Ar wrote:
It's not often I'll turn down a trip to Montreal or Quebec City, if only because I so enjoy the sights.
I think I will go outside and walk in the rain to Metro. That is sure to help my cold.
Wow. The market sure was humming this week.
I take it not a lot of $$ was made. Maybe everyone is on spring break.
"Computers are flipping out into the close. "
I looked into the market expecting a 600 point move based on that statement.
Pretty sucky market when moving from low of day to high of day equates to 35 points. lol
noob goldberg wrote:
Springtime, baby! Once it starts to warm up, Montreal is a sight to behold!
Outsider wrote:
We're always wondering about the 'dead cat bounce', but I don't think this feline even has the energy to jump off the roof.
Nova, friend is RN that's works in cardiac unit, she says no viagra needed, works until last breath. Just saying...
sportsfan wrote:
What is wrong with you today? CR has been pointing out that loans at 10X incomes being unsustainable, for years. Government efforts to reinflate the bubble and bail out bad bankers, always incites the commetariat. At that is exactly what this thread and HAMP are about.
poic wrote:
Sorry, I should have been more specific. I was seeing a raging battle over single pennies on the tickers. The bots must be programmed to get more aggressive in the last 5 minutes - but today, there were no humans to trade against, so it just oscillated.
The Herengracht Index:
http://mediativity.files.wordpress.com/2009/01/huizenprijzen_300jaar1.jpg
http://www.dekritischebelegger.nl/wp-content/uploads/2009/11/Herengracht-index-Kg-Goud-per-huis-1628-tot-2008.jpg
on the whole housing just increases with inflation, lagom, no more no less
because housing tends to eat up a fixed fraction of someone's budget, and that budget is generally determined by income, and income distribution relative to GDP is more or less stable over the long run
these principles can be obfuscated when you get big swings in spending (related to credit), or a big decline in population, or a big increase in vacant supply
the only gains in RE in general are when one area becomes more desirable relative to another area, and this can incorporate the global movement of people
Mook wrote:
You could equally well ask for a bankruptcy that is easy to explain, simple to administer, and which automatically rewards the right behavior by borrowers.
My sense is that many people here are familiar with bankruptcies but less so with cramdowns. There are devils in the details of each case.
wow-this coming from the guy that can cruise down the bike trail from Montana St to Venice on a hot summer weekend.....hmmmm...must be really good viewing there....
sportsfan wrote:
$200,000 * 3% inflation for 30 years = $485,453. It takes 8 years at 3% inflation to get to $250k. That assumes that future inflation is as high as recent inflation (it probably won't be that high in the short run), and that home prices will rise with overall inflation (that's easy, in the short run it never does).
creditcriminalslovetarp wrote:
Had to stop that. I kept spraining my neck and crashing into things.
Yeah, noob, this week it was just the "dead cat". Or "dead cat thud". At any rate, get out the paddles and let's see if we can juice 'er up for next week.
lawyerliz wrote:
I feel you. I get that too.
some investor guy wrote:
Don't confuse sportsfan with math
Don't worry about it, ghost. We appreciate your posts.
Your slip is showing.
funny-I witnessed one of the worst pedestrian vs bike accidents ever south of the SM pier..I loved that ride....had a classic schwinn tandem and always filled the back seat up....
Just to get people in the mood for BFF...
YouTube - The Sounds of Puerto Rico 2
C
creditcriminalslovetarp wrote:
Could you still draft the hotties on roller skates in that situation?
Nova wrote about American? Yeah, that one I'd have no problem (as blue eyed blond) "put to sleep"...after all so much trouble..put the puppy to sleep!
no roller skater hotties allowed...just followed...great view...
BBC News - China warns Google to comply with censorship laws
anyone wonder if there is more to this than us plebeians get? soft propaganda war being waged on both sides?
Outsider wrote:
I was in meetings most of the day, but I did peak in this morning for a few minutes around 10:30 or so, and I thought the market was actually having a busy day. At that point the Dow was already at 47 million (if I recall correctly) and the S&P was almost at 700 million. But volume must have completely died after that, because it only doubled over the next five hours or so.
"It's all about showing how smart and prudent and fiscally responsible everyone who comments on CR is. "
Well there's always MSNBS to show the other side. How if we just give the ole American 110% and everyone purchases cheap shit bling from China we can get back to "normal"
Yes, support the New York coming civil defense....see you at the front!
Re: Germany bailing out Greece
Committing to a bailout for Greece at the exact moment your country's export numbers are starting to point to a double dip not a great idea!!!
If HAMP were designed to help homeowners rather than banks, it would exempt any applicant who is already protected from foreclosure by a homestead exemption.
Also, it would be available equally to those who might own free and clear but are facing tax lien foreclosure because of the same circumstances (reduced income, medical bills). [The bank might have already been paid off in full so who cares? The local government's problem...]
Don't see any mention of these issues on the website.
Here's a thought from a Chicago Attorney in the trenches of this mess:
I think the banks are using the trial period as a kind of debt collection mechanism. They'll put you on it, ask for more docs (all the while you have to continue to keep making the trial payment), and then keep drawing out the process. That way, if the borrower defaults on this, at least they got SOME money. But, on the other hand, its also a good way for the banks to determine whether or not you can afford this new payment. 3 months trial and then straight to a finalized mod is RARE.
Chicago Foreclosure/Bankrutpcy Attorney:
Chicago Bankruptcy Attorney | Illinois Chapter 7 & 13 Lawyer | Cook, Dupage, Lake, Will, Kane County