hans, re: toyota, a few threads back Auto Sales - Markets Data Center - WSJ.com
Toyota's YoY sales are NOT up 50%, they are down 12.4% YTD and more importantly they have lost a 3.5% share of the US market
That's between the entire market share of Mazda (2.2%) and Hyundai (4.4%), roughly that of Kia (3.1%)
It's more than Mitsubishi, Subaru, Suzuki, Mercedes, Saab, Volvo, Volkswagen, Audi, BMW, Porsche, Isuzu, Jaguar, Land Rover, Mini, ...
If you're talking about Toyota's global sales, their low margin 2-stroke tricycle sales have little to do with their current financial health. I can't quickly look up their global sales or market share, let alone by market segment, so I'll leave that open in case you misunderstood the point that within the US either Toyota regains market share and sparks a bitter price war, or they close up capacity
I'll leave that open in case you misunderstood the point that within the US either Toyota regains market share and sparks a bitter price war, or they close up capacity
My bet has always been that it was to close up capacity. I see them pulling back and using these issues as cover for doing it.
JP, if you have the time - the podcast is funny (30 minutes). I was going to post this this afternoon - but I noticed people were already chatting about it.
very funny ... I'm looking forward to the followup
Kudos to NPR. I just hope that Ma and Pa investor don't decide that speculating in toxic waste is a good idea.
After all, Uncle Sam is already doing that on their behalf, so it would an over-concentration of risk for Ma and Pa to do so individually.
:doIreallyneedtoputasnarktaghere?:
Maybe someone who follows it intensely would say otherwise based on trading, but I say no. I see F and GM back through bankruptcy within the next couple of years. Price war, sales below forecast, any increases in the cost of funding, aggressive accounting, no UAW contract completed, lots of uneconomic 'legacy dealers'. All apply to Ford, most apply to GM
12.5mn is the the sustainable rate of car sales, and there is a huge inventory of used cars with many good miles left in them to mine. Had a series of good arguments about this late 2008 - early 2009 on CR. EHP never forgets when he's right
I post this for this little bit:
"Thursday's judgment comes just a day after beleaguered EMI absorbed its latest bit of bad news, in the form of the departure of the chief executive of its recorded-music division after fewer than two years on the job. EMI, owned by private-equity company Terra Firma Capital Partners Ltd., is in the midst of a struggle for survival as it seeks to repay debts stemming from Terra Firma's 2007 leveraged buyout of the company."
To point out the pernicious effects of holding interest rates so low that the LBO sharks can destroy companies by doing deals that make no economic sense other than to extract pillage. But I guess they're just doing Schumpeter's work.
This is the culmination of the beancounter's attack on the record business which began in the late 1970s.
To be fair it is the unions that will make that choice not Ford.
How much of an assist can the F, UAW workers get from the current admin this close to election season, in playing games with the BK? Does that "hope" make a BK more likely or less?
One thought on Amazon and internet sales that is bad for local retailers is they pay no license fees, insurance, employee taxes,wage base for the community, property tax for a brick and mortar business.
Auto plants typically have 2 big shutdowns during the year for maintenance, and installing/upgrading on the line
One in summer, one in winter
so the smart thing for management would be to overlap planned shutdown with the strike, and begin early so that they minimize the inventory of old models by the time the strike is up just in time for the upgraded line to spit out the new models
Grover Norquist: The Republican Party Has No Leader - US News and World Report
Mr. N on the Repub coalition:
There are two kinds of issues. There are vote-moving issues, and there's everything else. Think of people around a table. Everybody's there for different reasons, but they're all there because on their key issue, what they want from the government is to be left alone. We don't all hang out together. We don't all live in the same neighborhoods. We don't necessarily like each other. But we all look at the candidate in the middle of the room, and he says, "I'm going to leave your guns alone and your kids alone and your faith alone and your money alone and your family alone and your business alone," and the people say, "OK, I'm with you on my key, vote-moving issue." And that's why the coalition holds together.
Remember, Mr. N.: everybody wants to be left alone -- until they need something. And there's a lot of need coming.
We have always had activist gov't these past 70 years; recently it simply has been actively allowing reallocation of resources to a few hands. It will soon be activist in a populist direction. I don't predict which kind of populism....
One thought on Amazon and internet sales that is bad for local retailers is they pay no license fees, insurance, employee taxes,wage base for the community, property tax for a brick and mortar business.
But we can always transition to a model where we locally grow heirloom tomatoes for each other, and do each other's laundry.
To be fair it is the unions that will make that choice not Ford.
That's a big part of it, but they also mortgaged away their future not too long ago.....they should have sucked on the teat while the sucking was good, if all 3 went at the same time it would have included the get out of jail free card.
One thought on Amazon and internet sales that is bad for local retailers is they pay no license fees, insurance, employee taxes,wage base for the community, property tax for a brick and mortar business.
True, but it turns out that a lot of what we knew as retail is going away. For reasons of inventory optimization if nothing else. Brick and mortar stores, to the extent that they survive, are going to become catalog showrooms.
If we are going to play Moneyopoly, there has to be a spot on the board where if you land on it, you get paid off 100% on your bad investments for the duration of the game...
Re: "The big black Angus cow that everybody wants? We're not buying that cow because it's too expensive," he says. "We want the cow that's got a wounded leg, but she might produce a few more calves for us — and [she's] cheap."
"Some of the positive housing data may not be signaling a true turning point, as many servicers are holding back on foreclosures and the related houses are not yet being offered for sale," said Diane Westerback, a managing director at Standard & Poor's. Westerback said it could take 33 months to clear the backlog.
...
More than 75 percent of the borrowers who are now seriously delinquent -- meaning they have missed at least three monthly payments -- have traditional prime loans, according to First American CoreLogic. Most of these borrowers have not made a mortgage payment in six months
...
But other states and jurisdictions have even more drastic measures to slow down the foreclosure process. "There were cases where sheriffs were refusing to file foreclosure notices," said Jay Brinkmann, chief economist for the Mortgage Bankers Association.
...
"Banks have remained in foreclosure paralysis, allowing that backlog to get larger and larger. You can't do that indefinitely," said Sandeep Bordia, head of U.S. residential credit strategy at Barclays Capital.
...
Citigroup is testing a program that allows delinquent borrowers to stay in their home for six months free if they leave the property in good condition, making it easier to sell afterward.
"We are anticipating a foreclosure glut that is likely to come up in next 16 to 18 months. We are trying to stay ahead of this," said Sanjiv Das, chief executive of CitiMortgage. These types of programs are "protecting house prices and consumer sentiment from going down further," he said.
To be fair it is the unions that will make that choice not Ford.
To be fair it is the Fed that ultimately decides what an hour's wage will be able to purchase, whether the unions hold out for a nominal increase or agree to cuts. Ford really can't find financing from a bank that pays smaller bonuses?
Well maybe this time the unions lock wages to the discount rate or the CPI w/energy and food. Then the Fed has to retool the presses.
The funniest thing is Citi is holding nearly identical assets on their balance sheet at 75 cents on the dollar.
Yah, that is funny, and they also claim they are making a massive profit, which makes me laugh even harder ..... but I really start laughing when I think about the fact that Wall Street is holding the same shit and for some reason the market went up 70% -- because speculators pumped up the price of shit .... I still don't get it really.
Driving on Highway 99, you pass a large dairyimg concern with half a thousand visible lactaters going at it, and a billboard that tells passing motorists that dairy cows (read: rubbery hamburger) are available for purchase...
splat
ever wonder why banks are taking forever to foreclose delinquent homes, the first to the sale in a market does the best and the market is falling based on how much delinquent inventory is re-sold
instead the homes are trickled out just like a cartel would
and the Fed, well it carries the power to rescind its regulatory forbearance at any time. Fortunately, just ignoring the problem should last long enough to see the current crop of executives to their golden parachute, the average time at the top is quite short. The problem for Volcker came when John Reed came into the top job at Citi and bolted away from the pack when Citi had enough of a cushion to survive the writedowns, while some of its TBTF compatriots did not.
It is beyond ridiculous that Wells Fargo claims to be in a league of its own with respect to writedowns, despite being an industry leader in the toxic coastal variety of pick a pay Option-ARMs. Who cares about E&Y signing off on Repo 105 when this crap is happening on the main stage
Lots of jobs moved... The X cents on the dollar saved by those efficiencies, will still be spent by the end user on other things, or paid out in bonuses or profits.
We want the cow that's got a wounded leg, but she might produce a few more calves for us
That's what they want, but what they have is a herd of downer cows that need to be made into burger and mixed in with the other genetically modified burgers and then con people into buying the pink slime!
Kicking that can is going to get more and more difficult.
I think it is reaching the breaking point - as I pointed out before, the delinquency inventory is feeding on itself - as more and more people are allowed to live rent-free for longer and longer, it draws in more and more people.
We are in a downward spiral in the housing market.
One thought on Amazon and internet sales that is bad for local retailers is they pay no license fees, insurance, employee taxes,wage base for the community, property tax for a brick and mortar business.
Neither do publishers, or wholesalers -- the place where Amazon is really taking over.
True, but it turns out that a lot of what we knew as retail is going away. For reasons of inventory optimization if nothing else. Brick and mortar stores, to the extent that they survive, are going to become catalog showrooms.
I was wondering if there might be some kind of hybrid, a "rep" store where you can get your hands on the merchandise, get questions answered -- and then order it there. And go there for any additional help and to return merchandise. But I'm not not sure if the economics would be there.
I cut over from the 58 thru Arvin on hwy 223 yesterday and those dairy farmers sure have some nice mcmansions....I imagine they have triple pane windows and close doors fast though...
The problem for Volcker came when John Reed came into the top job at Citi and bolted away from the pack when Citi had enough of a cushion to survive the writedowns, while some of its TBTF compatriots did not.
You should read Tearing Down The Walls, you would realize it was not John Reed who was to blame.
I was wondering if there might be some kind of hybrid, a "rep" store where you can get your hands on the merchandise, get questions answered -- and then order it there. And go there for any additional help and to return merchandise. But I'm not not sure if the economics would be there.
Oh. You mean auto dealerships. How's that working out?
" From Enron to Lehman to Satyam (SAY 5.26, -0.16, -2.99%) to Parmalat, it's clear that the major accountants lack either the skill or the determination (or both) to ferret out fraud."
I cut over from the 58 thru Arvin on hwy 223 yesterday and those dairy farmers sure have some nice mcmansions....I imagine they have triple pane windows and close doors fast though...
After a while, you just get used to it. Said the man who went to junior high across the street from a dairy farm.
I was wondering if there might be some kind of hybrid, a "rep" store where you can get your hands on the merchandise, get questions answered -- and then order it there. And go there for any additional help and to return merchandise. But I'm not not sure if the economics would be there.
Sure, floor samples and some service. But I think returns will be mostly done directly through the shipping companies. Once you have a Fedex or UPS account, it's easy. If you take out the retail overhead, it's even possible to buy clothing over the Internet. Just order a bracket of sizes and styles, keep what you like, and return the rest. I know a couple of women who buy most of their casual clothes this way.
Yes, just another step to exclude a middle man like manufacture direct to customer no more warehousing distribution. Lots of jobs lost in efficiency.
Are you going to argue against robots next? Notwithstanding Amazon dodging local sales tax -- something that must inevitably come to an end -- the only problem I see is if they become too dominant and freeze out competition.
We will create and invent new demand in new categories. The trouble is these ventures don't take off when the cost of living relative to wages is very high, they do when it's cheap and it pays to take a risk because there is capacity ready to welcome it.
Retail dairies are a fairly recent phenomenon. Even families that lived in the cities, that had no farms, had cows and/or chickens that were tended to daily. My Mom still remembers her Grammy's cow: "Buttercup". Dairymen are losing money with cows due the wholesale processors buying out smaller processors and decreasing payouts for milk product. Pretty much like the Monsantos in corn and soy or the fewer major beef processors, or the Tysons with poultry. The casualties are the growers. No strong special interests to protect them.
The ECRI Weekly Leading index increased to 130.6 for the week ending March 5 from an unrevised 129.8. The smoothed, annualized growth rate decreased to 13.1% from an unrevised 13.7%. Outside of this week's gain, the WLI has been moving lower in recent weeks, reflecting the fragility of the recovery. from Economic Analysis, Data, and Forecasting and Credit Risk Management :: Moody's Economy.com
It's been pretty funny to watch the air come out of their language as the annualized growth rate has fallen over the past month or two.
I think the musicians will outrace the pro athletes to retake title to the means of production. Not that they're more savvy*, just that eventually the packaged product becomes ridiculous, in light of the premium.
You should read Tearing Down The Walls, you would realize it was not John Reed who was to blame.
Will do, thanks for the suggestion
That being said, I don't in a word blame John Reed, I just associate the breaking down of a cartel under his tenure
If it weren't him, it would have been someone else, because the incentives just aren't there to maintain a cartel. Otherwise organized crime would have a history with it
I was wondering if there might be some kind of hybrid, a "rep" store where you can get your hands on the merchandise, get questions answered -- and then order it there.
Here we come Sears & Roebuck?!
.
I'm going to live to see us return to the merchandise/retail model of my grandparents?
Some kind of bootstrapping support is needed to get new artists out there.
The marketing support that real record companies used to provide to new artists kept things fresh.
I'm going to live to see us return to the merchandise/retail model of my grandparents?
Only because online retail wipes out everything else in brick-and-mortar, in theory. Of course there is local retail without brick and mortar -- welcome to the street market.
Why SHOULD they pay? Where is the point of sale? Plus Amazon presumably has to compete with any number of Ma and Pa internet retailers who will avoid the tax. Should CO be allowed to tax the goods on a truck just passing through? What service does the state or locality provide Amazon, that is on par with the services that they provide a local retailer? The states are just being lazy and trying to force Amazon to do their job for them. CO needs to tax the end user that actually resides in the state and benefits from the tax, not the provider who may not. The reason they don't is that it is a lot of work to do so. Work they are trying to pawn off on Amazon.
If Amazon is subject to state or local sales tax, a thousand start-ups will form in no sales tax states that will serve as billing addresses and re-route orders to split the difference.
How about instead of a "rep store", they mail out catalogs. They can include pictures of the item, a short description, and directions on how to order it through the mail. Of course they would need to build up a reputation as a store that doesn't dish off junk to its customers -- you know, treating customers like human beings. But I didn't see any of these ideas show up in the course syllabi for the Harvard MBA, so we must be on the wrong track here. How about securitizing the customer's eyeballs, ears, sense of smell, and taste. Every person that comes near a real-world or virtual presence of the company shall be assaulted on every front, to the highest bidder, for 30 second intervals. Senses would be heightened while motor skills dampened with airborne drugs pumped into the physical locations, while subliminal messages used to achieve the same effect in the virtual store. To increase the value per customer, they could do things like make everything a maze so that the customer has already invested a lot of time to that point, and won't want to walk away before they leave with what they wanted.
I know. It is just being on the decline end of an era is just sad considering that I'm relatively young.
.
Maybe I just lived in the exception, not the norm.
" From Enron to Lehman to Satyam (SAY 5.26, -0.16, -2.99%) to Parmalat, it's clear that the major accountants lack either the skill or the determination (or both) to ferret out fraud."
I've mentioned this before, but I worked for a Big-4 in 1999-2000 as an auditor. The I saw made my stomach turn. No one in management was interested in getting to bottom of anomalies, or probing deep into the number. Tic-and-tie, sign off, and move on.
I was really expecting a major downturn - like what we're seeing today - after the tech bubble burst. I thought we would get real transparency and accountability, but all we got was Sarbanes-Oxley and a few slaps on the wrist.
Top 10 auto lenders in the U.S. in 2009
Market Share
1. Chase Auto Finance 6.75%
2. Toyota Financial Services 6.14
3. Wachovia Dealer Services 4.3
4. American Honda Financial Services 4.26
5. GMAC Financial Services 3.7
6. Ford Motor Credit Co. 3.46
7. Nissan Infiniti Financial Services 2.29
8. Bank of America 1.99
9. BMW Financial Services 1.84
10. Capital One Auto Finance 1.76
Source: Experian Automotive
* Rankings based on state vehicle registration data on retail loans and leases for new and used vehicles
To increase the value per customer, they could do things like make everything a maze so that the customer has already invested a lot of time to that point, and won't want to walk away before they leave with what they wanted.
The irony is that public radio is now doing what used to be the primary function of the record companies. So what exactly are the record companies doing?
pop group OK GO, who has made their mark with very creative low budget videos that get millions of views on Youtube, etc, just split from EMI yesterday to go it on their own.
the major labels are going to be stuck with just producing the flavor of the day for some handpicked young hot body to lipsync too. To their credit, they are pretty good at that.
the major labels are going to be stuck with just producing the flavor of the day for some handpicked young hot body to lipsync too. To their credit, they are pretty good at that.
Blackhalo
If that's how you feel, why do you pay any taxes at all? I never said Amazon should be singled out, I'm saying that like every other country in the world the same sales taxes should apply whether it be done in person, by phone, by mail, or by telegram. Point of sale is point of delivery. Simple. While they're at it, might as well ban any "use tax" beyond the import duties charged at national borders.
Taxes should be broad based -- you don't want to change market behaviour -- so there shouldn't be any dodges
They should also strive to be simple to follow, and simple to collect.
The marketing support that real record companies used to provide to new artists kept things fresh.
Oooohhh, "fresh"? I'd say stale.
It takes more effort from the consumer to find new artists without relying on marketing and hype, but it's well worth it.
I'm thinking of voting for whichever (viable) candidate wastes the least money campaigning. I know Pink Floyd sold out a bit long ago, but at least they can claw back a little artistic control. I hope it's not all about the money...
EvilHenryPaulson wrote: To increase the value per customer, they could do things like make everything a maze so that the customer has already invested a lot of time to that point, and won't want to walk away before they leave with what they wanted.
You've visited Ikea then?
Or Bed, Bath, and Beyond, and the one Walmart I've been to -- anywhere where you can't see the far wall or get your bearings to the entrance easily, or have to walk a circuit around the entire store to get out unless you choose to retrace your steps.
It's too bad they killed Napster. I remember doing a ton of music discovery with it. I'd find someone with the mp3 of a song I wanted. Then I'd poke around in their upload folder and check out the other mp3s they had. Found a lot of cool stuff that way.
These days Pandora does a decent job of introducing you to different artists. But their library is pretty limited and mostly big label.
The problem is I don't want to just listen to a stream of artists I've never heard of. I want to hear artists I like who might be mainstream and new artists who I might also like alongside them. The technology is getting there, but it hasn't been as quick as some techies might have hoped.
Remember when Milli Vanilli got caught lip syncing and it ended their career?
Britney Spears got caught doing the same thing. No one seems to care anymore (except the Aussies).
Britney Spears is just two shows into her Circus Tour in Australia and she’s already the center of controversy Down Under. Reviews of Spears’ tour-opening shows in Perth were negative, with critics complaining about the fact that Spears lip-synchs during her performance. While Spears’ lip-synching is no secret to American audiences, Australia’s WA Today called Spears’ first of 14 shows “heavy on miming and light on audience interaction,” adding that she “often had her back to much of the crowd.”
Interesting that year-over-year FHA's single-family holdings went up 25% in number of loans but 43% in dollars. They're getting into the deep end of the pool.
Also, the 90-day defaults are going through the roof, 558,000 as of Jan, 2010. It's not clear what period that figure covers, but it's big no matter what.
First real concert I ever went to was MV. Which I guess means my first real concert was the next one, MC Hammer, well actually I guess my first real concert was the next one....
" From Enron to Lehman to Satyam (SAY 5.26, -0.16, -2.99%) to Parmalat, it's clear that the major accountants lack either the skill or the determination (or both) to ferret out fraud."
My take on dealing with the auditors.. from past experience and having had to have my team tied up dealing with the f'tards...
For the most part.. bunch of kids just out of college being billed at $120/hr. Completely useless, don't understand the basics and if a deliberate attempt to hide the skeletons was being made they had neither the skill, wit or experience to see it. Usually overseen by one experienced person who's more desperately interested in billable hours and making partner.
~splat
It's too bad they killed Napster. I remember doing a ton of music discovery with it.
Yes. Napster cost me a lot of money, because I'd download something new and then go out an buy it. My music purchasing definitely increased after I started using it.
In another previous career, I was responsible for handling the copyright infringement complaints from the music/movie (and porn) industries for an Ivy league university. We would get as many as 100 cease and desist orders a week, mostly about undergrads in the dorms.
Yes. Napster cost me a lot of money, because I'd download something new and then go out an buy it. My music purchasing definitely increased after I started using it.
The failure of the record companies to work a deal with Napster should go into the case studies book as one of the greatest business bungles of all time.
UPDATE 1-U.S. FHA chief says FHA not next subprime
| Reuters
this is not a repeat
well the message is, David Stevens is doing his best to yell it over the loud explosions all over the FHA's offices
wonder when Obama will appoint the FHA's regulator (the position is vacant, leaving it up to Geithner without putting him in the awkward position of forcing the funding FHA's minimum 2% statutory capital when Orszag's eyes are bugging out over the deficit)
btw -- fun fact, 25% of US GDP is govt spending, and tax receipts about 15%
they should have asked for help early on
My take on dealing with the auditors.. from past experience and having had to have my team tied up dealing with the f'tards...
For the most part.. bunch of kids just out of college being billed at $120/hr. Completely useless, don't understand the basics and if a deliberate attempt to hide the skeletons was being made they had neither the skill, wit or experience to see it. Usually overseen by one experienced person who's more desperately interested in billable hours and making partner.
~splat
Yes, that's exactly right.
I was actually put out in front of clients having taken nothing more than accounting 101 (and with a degree from a top liberal arts college). The other people at the firm were a bunch of hard-drinking idiots. Mandatory keg stands at the post-CPA-exam party, for instance.
Also, the 90-day defaults are going through the roof, 558,000 as of Jan, 2010. It's not clear what period that figure covers, but it's big no matter what.
I think that is the current inventory - i.e. 558k that are 90+ as of 1/31/10
I use Amazon (and Ebay when I can get a deal) for everything I can, including groceries. I am past the instant gratification stage of having to have something immediately. Price is lower, no tax, no gas...and no people frustration. Saves so much time. But my wife and I aren't shoppers. We have always been hunters in the market place. Go in to get what we need as fast as possible and get the hell out. Malls and bigbox stores make me feel claustrophobic. On the flip side, we support our local farmers markets for fresh produce. The money we save through Amazon allows us to afford organic and fresh fruits and veggies. As people's real income shrinks...these grey markets, and ultimately black markets will continue to grow. We are in the spin-down cycle, I can't fault people anymore for trying to save a nickel. It is ultimately self-defeating in the long run, but survival rarely looks past today.
MLM wrote:
It's been pretty funny to watch the air come out of their language as the annualized growth rate has fallen over the past month or two.
They need to update their index. Something like this might be a start:
Econbrowser: A new index of financial conditions
That Econbrowser link will take you to the Hatzius et. al. source paper which is long on econometrics but with this nugget for gfi and cclt - how are these doing in 1Q2010 (drivers for their new FCI to diverge from existing FCIs):
The deterioration in the quantitative indicators was concentrated in non-mortgage ABS issuance, commercial mortgage debt, and repo loans.
The failure of the record companies to work a deal with Napster should go into the case studies book as one of the greatest business bungles of all time.
Why? They ended up at Apple... Who REALLY need to buy out the Beatles version, so they can get into the publishing biz.
On the bright side - absent a one day 50% move upwards in IYR it can't go to zero. Long at 9 half. I will grit my teeth and buy some more somewhere here in the 6's but given the way it's moving I may just wait for a 4 handle to average down.
I haven't had much humor lately. Mostly disordered thought and language, hallucinations, delusions, odd emotional expressions. After watching CNBC for a while, I become agitated and sometimes make unwanted physical contact with strangers, arms shaking, yelling
"I am Woolworth!"
We would get as many as 100 cease and desist orders a week, mostly about undergrads in the dorms.
I bet those have fallen dramatically as students move, to sneaker-net or private club servers.
Possibly. I left that job in 2004, so I was there when the issue was in the news every week. Despite that, many of the kids just weren't very tech savvy and left thousands of songs in their shared folders. Even by 2004, a lot of it was moving to Bittorrent, which is harder to catch.
Modification filed before mortgage (at lease I assume that the handwritten
letters "mod" means. Mtges slightly different, completely different legal
descriptions. No affidavit explaining it, no explanation in complaint. Prolly
an attempt to add the 2nd legal to the first or the first to the 2nd, but it's up
to them to state the cause of action, not me.
I heard locally that grad school applications are perhaps the most competitive ever this year
At a local university the amount of grad school students in civil engineering is roughtly double what it was during the boom years. They've been increasing admission standards for undergrad engineering as well as they have too many students. The grad students graduating this year are a depressed group when it comes to job seeking. I'd expect a glut of Phd students the next few years.
The corporate packagers may find the best talent, but they will likely polish it down to appeal to a mass audience to maximize the exploited profit. George Martin might have been as much of an artist as any Beatle, but he's rare. Phil Spector was great, but probably a psychopath.
Support, great. Control, domination of ego, repression of anti-corporate message, not as much.
I believe the leveraged short ETFs are capped at how much they can move in one day. Don't know about SRS, but pretty sure I read once that FAZ was capped at something like 70% move up or down in one day. I guess that's some consolation!
Keys Gate, hahahahah, that's where a broker was trying to sell a property
and offered it for 50k with no takers. She didn't mention any Chinese drywall,
might not know.
The buyer died--allegedly before he ever moved in.
After watching CNBC for a while, I become agitated and sometimes make unwanted physical contact with strangers, arms shaking, yelling
"I am Woolworth!"
Remember when Milli Vanilli got caught lip syncing and it ended their career?
Britney Spears got caught doing the same thing. No one seems to care anymore
So did Crosby, Stills and Nash (in the late 80's).....and those guys actually had talent.
Native Indians to the newly arrived immigrants: "We knew, you would fuck it all up...sooner or later...so much potential but all we got is this thing called American Idol".
Kudos to NPR. I just hope that Ma and Pa investor don't decide that speculating in toxic waste is a good idea.
I must admit that when I saw he got $141 as his first monthly check from that $1,000 toxic asset, I was ready to ask Ma if she wanted to try a bit of vulture investing...
What an odd business to turn away paying customers...
You've obviously never worked in a university system. The students are a necessary evil to be dealt with, better left to T.A.s, adjuncts, and non-tenured faculty. They are only necessary to sell the higher education story to the public to get the necessary public funds and donations to fund research or other enlightened activities
I think the musicians will outrace the pro athletes to retake title to the means of production. Not that they're more savvy*, just that eventually the packaged product becomes ridiculous, in light of the premium.
A band I manage(yes, I have too many fingers in too many pies) has finally woken up to reality and is going it themselves. An established act, terminal 1 step forward, two steps back kind of thing.
The deals on offer were for 28% of retail(25% of downloads), while Amazon can do distro for 45% and iTunes is 70%
So on a $10 download you make $2.50 through the label instead of $7 directly, on a $17 record you get $4.76 from the label instead of $5.65(after cost) from Amazon, $8.00 selling direct to stores or $15.00 (after cost) if sold at shows. There's less than 200 vinyl stockists so it's easy to either deal with them directly or through 1 stops.
In addition, the label also only pays out 1/2 within 120 days(even digital), holding the other half in reserve for 18 months in case the cassettes melt or laquer platters shatter. Meanwhile Amazon and iTunes pay in 30 and retail pays up front.
We have our own bar codes, I can get a multiple printers to bid on a run of 5000, can get quality records made in the Czech republic for under a buck unit cost.
Remember, Mr. N.: everybody wants to be left alone -- until they need something.
Well-said, BD. That is true right down to the local level. I have seen "property rights activists" do a 180 and demand emergency restrictions on a neighbor's proposed land use that they don't like.
What does the current job market look like for civil engineers? I would think with looming infrastructure/jobs programs, maybe brighter than, say, ME?
Civil encompasses a large spectrum. Roads/bridges/infrastructre/environmental type firms that work with the Government are stable and haven't had the huge layoffs others have, but they are probably only 40% of the market (just an educated guess), but percentage wise its increasing day by day. The government is spending a ton and no one else is. Structural/Geotech and other specialties that were involved with the building boom have been hammered so for every graduate there is probably 3-4 experienced engineers who would do the same work for the same pay (layoffs have been anywhere from 20%-90% of staff at most places). Not a good time to graduate (the worst I can recall, or have even heard of from the REALLY old guys).
Standard Chartered said U.S. authorities had a "good case" to label China a currency manipulator in view of the "massive intervention" by the People's Bank of China to control the exchange rate.
WTF. When is being a "currency manipulator" a bad thing? Isn't every single country with a peg to another currency by definition a currency manipulator?
I thought barely any stimulus money went to new infrastructure, let alone infrastructure in general
I'm thinking maybe a future jobs program. Surely we're going to need infrastructure investment before long. Would think there may be a (future) jobs program tied to that?
Citigroup is testing a program that allows delinquent borrowers to stay in their home for six months free if they leave the property in good condition, making it easier to sell afterward.
And if they stay for six months free and don't leave the property in good condition -- what then? Not like they even have a deposit on the line.
If it doesn't make sense on its face, there must be another reason: I suggest it's a way to keep from realizing the accounting loss for 6 more months.
Riiiiighhht. Does your BK forecast also include Toyota and GE?
No. Toyota doesn't build union plants in this country (and their one 'shared' union plant is about to shut down), and GE is TBTF and gets and endless suck on the teat (and jack welch the douch#bag got out early enough where none of GE's issues get blamed on him even though he is the root cause).
Uncle Ar wrote:
F never went into BK, did it?
They will, next year.
Rob Dawg wrote in reply to. 9:49 am
To be fair it is the unions that will make that choice not Ford.
what you are saying makes no sense and is un warranted union bashing
ford is an international company and is in a relatively good position
almost three times as many workers are employed by ford world-wide as within the usa
the days of unions being able to negotiate extravagant or even great pay and benefits for the workers they represent are over
off shoring jobs, factories, corporate offices and helping china to run the table against american labor has all had its desired effect
the american middle class is on its knees
as i wrote on these pages 2 or 3 years ago, all of this is by plan
what politician was willing to tell the ameerican people the truth, that our standard of living was going to be pared down to size in favor of emerging markets...on a few...perot, and who else
the american people cant handle the truth they always want sunny optimistic fairy tale candidates
so they got the slogan back in the late 70s...its mourning in america (mis-spelling intended)
we got sold out
the american middle class, (and the unions) are on a long down hill slide
enjoy the ride because nothing happens without coincident and un intended effects
Family friend's son just graduated from A&M with Masters in Civil Engineering...took a job for $23,000 with Txdot. The future is so bright he is wearing shades.
The stimulus money that did go to infrastructure is what allowed many Civil firms in that area to remain pretty level as it replaced the complete drop off of private development.
for every graduate there is probably 3-4 experienced engineers who would do the same work for the same pay (layoffs have been anywhere from 20%-90% of staff at most places).
Wow. And engineering used to be such a worthy profession. Very sad. Now the new market is basically politics and fraud.
Oh, and healthcare. We'll all be healthcare providers soon.
Goldman made a statement this morning that they don't do Repo 105s.
I predict that the last chairmen of the top ten New York banks, along with some government officials, will be put down like rabid dogs in a great public spectacle.
At least doctors have all-but guaranteed employment upon graduation. For us lawyers, it's a . I went to a top 25 school, graduated with honors, had the big firm job, but got laid off when everything went to hell. It took almost a year to find a new job, and now I'm working as a contractor doling out stimulus funds.
You can't help but pity those poor fools who are eager to take almost $200,000 in loans for dismal employment prospects. The firms that lived off structured finance aren't coming back to hire 100+ people starting classes again.
I'm thinking maybe a future jobs program. Surely we're going to need infrastructure investment before long. Would think there may be a (future) jobs program tied to that?
Additional infrastructure investment? Shouldn't local, state and federal governments have been putting money aside in reserve knowing that all of this infrastructure has readily known life spans and maintenance schedules........and ...oh wait....... no they haven't done much of that
mp wrote: mp (My days as an investor in US debt and equity instruments are over.) Uh oh.
The other day Conjure started channeling Andrew Mellon and now mp himself channels Karl
I'm thinking there might not be a special pre-election stimulus plan than whatever ~$135bn spending bill gets passed now.
They have the liberty of picking the election battleground, and why choose the economy when you can talk about Afghanistan or Iraq instead
Here in Northwest Washington, the local dairies got $18.67 per hundredweight in 2007 and $17.48 in 2008. For 2009 it was $11.77. So it's no surprise that it's a buyer's market for cows.
They also do not use the public resources that those taxes go to pay for.
You miss the point...shopkeepers do not necessarily use those public resources either (they rent space only, they might be headquarted anywhere in the world) - it's the reduction in tax base that takes place to provide the necessary services to the community. Amazon is extracting resources from the community, and not giving any back.
What really make me about this is all the servicepeople we have lost for our country's cause. I don't disparage any soldier his honor, but I don't want my son fighting for the . It's quite a dilemma.
Almost impossible to calculate at the present time!!
Those books are classified under national security, on a need to know basis. Heaven forbid if some smart bond vigilante got their ands on them and extrapolated to the rest of the ex-investment banks...
I ran Planet Money's bond in bloomberg, and it's not going to last until Thanksgiving. Based on a few scenarios, they could yield up to about 50% on the bond, or lose most of it. They'll know in about 4 months.
energy, where was that information? in the Hud pdf?
The Hatzius et. al. paper on their new Financial Conditions Index - those are the drivers for the rather dramatic negative divergence of their FCI from the others
Wow. And engineering used to be such a worthy profession.
It still is, but at least from the Civil/Structural side it hasn't come to grips with the productivity gains of the recent years, much like many other industries. The advancements in software for design has been pretty stunning over the last 10-20 years. We just don't need as many engineers as we used to.
Education requirements will go up (Masters degress will be required at some point to be entry level) - this is already being advanced and there will be increased specialization. Pay will probably be fairly stagnant or deflate for new graduates as we have an oversupply of labor unless we have a reinflation of the bubble or some grand public infrastructure projects.
Here in Northwest Washington, the local dairies got $18.67 per hundredweight in 2007 and $17.48 in 2008. For 2009 it was $11.77. So it's no surprise that it's a buyer's market for cows.
That's not such a bad hit when you look at the feed price collapse. Wheat near contract off 50% for instance.
And interestingly, whereas the auditor that signed off on Enron's books got taken to the woodshed, no one in media has anything to say about Ernst & Young. I guess they must be insiders. Or else TPTB figure that they can't afford to do the sacrificial dog and pony show too often lest they run out of people to sign off on their schemes.
I took that as they are the auditors who just discovered that the auditors Lehman had while a going concern screwed the pooch big time. I was looking for that auditor, not the post mortem one.
It seems to me, the question is how close is their tranche from being wiped out? I assmue that it's not senior enough that there is any chance of it being repaid. As a matter of fact, with a price like that, I assume that is either already writing down principal, or is close to it. This is an excelent chance for them to explain the trancheing of mortgages and how reposessions/short sales and other early defaults are good for some bond holders and bad for others.
What was that line in Boy in the Bubble by Paul Simon...
These are the days of lasers in the jungle
Lasers in the jungle somewhere
Staccato signals of constant information
A loose affiliation of millionaires
And billionaires and baby
These are the days of miracle and wonder
This is the long distance call
The way the camera follows us in slo-mo
The way we look to us all
The way we look to a distant constellation
That's dying in a corner of the sky
Therse are the days of miracle and wonder
And don't cry baby, don't cry
Don't cry
“In May 2008, a Lehman Senior Vice President, Matthew Lee, wrote a letter to management alleging accounting improprieties;82 in the course of investigating the allegations, Ernst & Young was advised by Lee on June 12, 2008 that Lehman used $50 billion of Repo 105 transactions to temporarily move assets off balance sheet and quarter end.
The next day on June 13, 2008 Ernst & Young met with the Lehman Board Audit Committee but did not advise it about Lee’s assertions, despite an express direction from the Committee to advise on all allegations raised by Lee. Ernst & Young took virtually no action to investigate the Repo 105 allegations. Ernst & Young took no steps to question or challenge the non disclosure by Lehman of its use of $50 billion of temporary, off balance sheet transactions. Colorable claims exist that Ernst & Young did not meet professional standards, both in investigating Lee’s allegations and in connection with its audit and review of Lehman’s financial statements.”
edit:
Uncle Ar, the post mortem was some law firm. E&Y was the auditor
Amazon plans on replacing the big publishing houses. They will too. If I was younger I would go into publishing. I even worked out in my head my biz plan. Not going to happen tho.
Amazon just started publishing books under their own label by the way.
Family friend's son just graduated from A&M with Masters in Civil Engineering...took a job for $23,000 with Txdot. The future is so bright he is wearing shades.
It seems to me, the question is how close is their tranche from being wiped out? I assmue that it's not senior enough that there is any chance of it being repaid. As a matter of fact, with a price like that, I assume that is either already writing down principal, or is close to it. This is an excelent chance for them to explain the trancheing of mortgages and how reposessions/short sales and other early defaults are good for some bond holders and bad for others.
The tranche they have is the second from the bottom at this point, and the one below is 3 months from being gone at current speeds. It's a thin tranche, and will likely only last a few months.
Colorable claims exist that Ernst & Young did not meet professional standards, both in investigating Lee’s allegations and in connection with its audit and review of Lehman’s financial statements.
That will go down in history as one of the greatest understatements of the 21st century.
Colorable claims exist that Ernst & Young did not meet professional standards, both in investigating Lee’s allegations and in connection with its audit and review of Lehman’s financial statements.
That will go down in history as one of the greatest understatements of the 21st century.
No surprise here. Did I mention that I worked for E&Y?
Moving to Singapore, that's fine. Moving to China, not sure that's a great idea. Especially when point #3 in that article is "3. Don't worry about learning a foreign language". And it recommends teaching English as a transition job? Lol.
Not everyone is rich and gets handed a cushy job in a foreign country which pays 5 times the local salary.
You can't help but pity those poor fools who are eager to take almost $200,000 in loans for dismal employment prospects. The firms that lived off structured finance aren't coming back to hire 100+ people starting classes again.
You are making me happy. Keep the Law Song playing, Bro JS!
There's no where to place your trust in the markets. Systematically we have been let down by: SEC, Auditors, Analysts, Boards of Directors, Executives, Judges, Brokers, Fund Managers, Federal Reserve and every regulator below it
We're going to end up like Mulder and Scully on the X-Files, in some dingy place muttering "The Truth Is Out There"
the situation is absurd
Americans are cowards mostly. How long you guys are going to bitch@blog about your own politicians fucking up your own ass? Until your own lube runs out? Instead of actually doing something...
shopkeepers do not necessarily use those public resources either
The local courts, police and fire dept do not protect their inventory? No need for water, sewer and power? What service do the sales taxes pay for, that Amazon benefits from?
LoserBeachBum
So when is Germany going to eat the losses at its wild & crazy banks? How will Germany's exports fare now that they have the burden of being the strongest growth within the EMU? The aging demographic isn't getting any better
There's no where to place your trust in the markets. Systematically we have been let down by: SEC, Auditors, Analysts, Boards of Directors, Executives, Judges, Brokers, Fund Managers, Federal Reserve and every regulator below it
Maybe our original mistake was trusting anyone in the first place. I'm feeling like you in regards to it all being absurd. It hit me about a week or two ago, and I actually started thinking that I had reach peak . In hindsight, I realized that I had no reason to trust this system in the first place. My "winnings" just allowed me to bleet along with my fellow sheep.
And interestingly, whereas the auditor that signed off on Enron's books got taken to the woodshed, no one in media has anything to say about Ernst & Young.
Disclosure would be devastating to the TBTF ponzi.
Prosecutors charged that Awand recruited top doctors to serve as expert witnesses and to treat injured plaintiffs by arranging kickbacks and using his sway over lawyers to offer the doctors protection from malpractice suits. The doctors allegedly performed complex and sometimes unnecessary spine surgeries that in several cases left patients paralyzed.
There's no where to place your trust in the markets. Systematically we have been let down by: SEC, Auditors, Analysts, Boards of Directors, Executives, Judges, Brokers, Fund Managers, Federal Reserve and every regulator below it
This is why, 401k aside, I haven't put a penny into equities since I quit E&Y back in 2000. Sure, I miss the market runups, but every penny I've set aside to save is still there, should I need it someday. Obviously, I won't get as rich as most people here by stashing my cash at ING Direct, but I cannot stomach the rigged systems that are our capital markets today. I'd love to invest our money and get real returns, but I don't see a way to do it where it isn't just gambling.
Prosecutors charged that Awand recruited top doctors to serve as expert witnesses and to treat injured plaintiffs by arranging kickbacks and using his sway over lawyers to offer the doctors protection from malpractice suits.
Oh, don't get me started on doctors. I have more heartfelt respect for the kid who mows my grass.
You can't help but pity those poor fools who are eager to take almost $200,000 in loans for dismal employment prospects. The firms that lived off structured finance aren't coming back to hire 100+ people starting classes again.
You are making me happy. Keep the Law Dooooooooooooooom!!! Song playing, Bro JS!
The sad thing is that I really liked being a lawyer. I want to do it again, but every attorney job I apply for has at least 400 applicants. And I feel sorry for those who are my year a 1-2 behind me, and got swept up in this storm through no fault of their own. But if you're applying to law school today, knowing that firms have been laying off thousands of attorneys and low-level work (doc review, due diligence) is being outsourced to temporary attorneys in computerized-sweatshop conditions, you have no one to blame for your predicament but yourself.
Not doing anything until the unemployment benefits stop being extended, the gov't cheese stops being delivered, and the cable stops working.
Delivering the bare minimum to prevent riots will only placate the crowds for a definite amount of time. Eventually the lack of upward mobility, or the lack of having one's rewards match one's work frustrate them. Then the crowd begins to focus on taking what they want now, as it is more successful than working to get what they want in the future. If things are actively declining, then the break even point between taking today versus working under the current system is brought forward very fast. When I say taking, I don't mean it to necessarily be of the illegal sort, generally I use it to mean asserting their power.
The guy that owns the planes we rent from at the airport in the Big Smoke is crying the blues financially, and a few weeks ago at another estblishment when I was up in a sail-plane, the owner of that place was trying to put the hard-sell on my wife buying his business from him. (we have zero interest in doing that, it'd be like a bar owner asking you after you've been there a few times if you'd like to buy his place, while he ran it)
Hilarious article. Favorite snippet: It's called an Option One Mortgage Loan Trust, or OOMLT (pronounced om-let).
I do prefer my eggs scrambled.
I wonder if the Chinese will have a documentary on how they bought a toxic asset as well (the U.S.)
hans, re: toyota, a few threads back
Auto Sales - Markets Data Center - WSJ.com
Toyota's YoY sales are NOT up 50%, they are down 12.4% YTD and more importantly they have lost a 3.5% share of the US market
That's between the entire market share of Mazda (2.2%) and Hyundai (4.4%), roughly that of Kia (3.1%)
It's more than Mitsubishi, Subaru, Suzuki, Mercedes, Saab, Volvo, Volkswagen, Audi, BMW, Porsche, Isuzu, Jaguar, Land Rover, Mini, ...
If you're talking about Toyota's global sales, their low margin 2-stroke tricycle sales have little to do with their current financial health. I can't quickly look up their global sales or market share, let alone by market segment, so I'll leave that open in case you misunderstood the point that within the US either Toyota regains market share and sparks a bitter price war, or they close up capacity
EvilHenryPaulson wrote:
My bet has always been that it was to close up capacity. I see them pulling back and using these issues as cover for doing it.
JP, if you have the time - the podcast is funny (30 minutes). I was going to post this this afternoon - but I noticed people were already chatting about it.
very funny ... I'm looking forward to the followup
best wishes
The funniest thing is Citi is holding nearly identical assets on their balance sheet at 75 cents on the dollar.
M1 and M2 down a little. MZM up a fraction. Meshes nicely with last week's record low M1 multiplier of .786.
St. Louis Fed: Monetary Aggregates
Loved the story. I really hope they let us know whether/how HAMP et al. influence their payment stream.
EvilHenryPaulson wrote:
Time to buy F?
ghostfaceinvestah wrote:
Shhh. People still own that turkey. You tring to crash the stock or something?
Retail Sales in U.S. Unexpectedly Rose in February (Update4) - Bloomberg.com
"Unexpectedly!" There it is.............
ghostfaceinvestah wrote:
And probably the #1 reason why no one is in any hurry to turn delinquencies into foreclosures. Unless of course there is equity to steal.
Grover Norquist: The Republican Party Has No Leader - US News and World Report
A lot of you will enjoy his sentiments....
....on the GOP anyway-
Big deal. We all own those.
Blackhalo wrote:
Schrödinger's Mortgages.
Kudos to NPR. I just hope that Ma and Pa investor don't decide that speculating in toxic waste is a good idea.
After all, Uncle Sam is already doing that on their behalf, so it would an over-concentration of risk for Ma and Pa to do so individually.
:doIreallyneedtoputasnarktaghere?:
Hat tip to Nanoo-Nanoo for introducing us to the Planet Money link.
I had a daymare I was being followed by a dozen Prii on the freeway when maximum overdrive happened...
Blackhalo wrote:
Yes, that is the formula - negative equity, no foreclosure, positive equity, immediate foreclosure.
Blackhalo wrote:
Maybe someone who follows it intensely would say otherwise based on trading, but I say no. I see F and GM back through bankruptcy within the next couple of years. Price war, sales below forecast, any increases in the cost of funding, aggressive accounting, no UAW contract completed, lots of uneconomic 'legacy dealers'. All apply to Ford, most apply to GM
12.5mn is the the sustainable rate of car sales, and there is a huge inventory of used cars with many good miles left in them to mine. Had a series of good arguments about this late 2008 - early 2009 on CR. EHP never forgets when he's right
So the Fed bought $13 thousand billion "worth" of these?
Let me guess, the Fed did not use its own money, and if it loses money, it won't be its own. A little less funny.
EvilHenryPaulson wrote:
F never went into BK, did it?
Global employment outlook: Hire or fire? | The Economist
They will, next year.
yogi-the WORST of the WORST ones.
Eric wrote:
Yet. Give it time. Their union contract is up this summer I think.
ghostfaceinvestah wrote:
This is why the bandos have it so good.
Uncle Ar wrote:
To be fair it is the unions that will make that choice not Ford.
This podcast is good - they model the OOMLT for 1/2 cent, but the ask is high teens. LMAO.
The reporters just proved these assets are worth 1.5 cents on the dollar.
The goose is cooked.
Eric wrote:
F has not entered into BK
I know...of course it's the Fed's own "money"-- its name is right there in green and white.
Oh give me a home,
Where the bandos roam,
And the cable is hooked up,
All day.
Where seldom is heard,
The foreclosure word,
And utilities are running
All day.
A scintilla here, a scintilla there, it all adds up to nothing much...
OT:
Pink Floyd Wins Downloads Suit - WSJ.com
I post this for this little bit:
"Thursday's judgment comes just a day after beleaguered EMI absorbed its latest bit of bad news, in the form of the departure of the chief executive of its recorded-music division after fewer than two years on the job. EMI, owned by private-equity company Terra Firma Capital Partners Ltd., is in the midst of a struggle for survival as it seeks to repay debts stemming from Terra Firma's 2007 leveraged buyout of the company."
To point out the pernicious effects of holding interest rates so low that the LBO sharks can destroy companies by doing deals that make no economic sense other than to extract pillage. But I guess they're just doing Schumpeter's work.
This is the culmination of the beancounter's attack on the record business which began in the late 1970s.
Rob Dawg wrote:
How much of an assist can the F, UAW workers get from the current admin this close to election season, in playing games with the BK? Does that "hope" make a BK more likely or less?
One thought on Amazon and internet sales that is bad for local retailers is they pay no license fees, insurance, employee taxes,wage base for the community, property tax for a brick and mortar business.
ghostfaceinvestah wrote:
Someone bought it. Perhaps they had a better model, or a printing press...
Wait a minute !! That "asset" is still worth 2.7 million ! You can't write it down it'll crash the economy !
I thought that was the banks approach to these assets ?
~splat
Auto plants typically have 2 big shutdowns during the year for maintenance, and installing/upgrading on the line
One in summer, one in winter
so the smart thing for management would be to overlap planned shutdown with the strike, and begin early so that they minimize the inventory of old models by the time the strike is up just in time for the upgraded line to spit out the new models
Lobbyist Ben Dover wrote:
They also do not use the public resources that those taxes go to pay for.
Cinco-X wrote:
Mr. N on the Repub coalition:
There are two kinds of issues. There are vote-moving issues, and there's everything else. Think of people around a table. Everybody's there for different reasons, but they're all there because on their key issue, what they want from the government is to be left alone. We don't all hang out together. We don't all live in the same neighborhoods. We don't necessarily like each other. But we all look at the candidate in the middle of the room, and he says, "I'm going to leave your guns alone and your kids alone and your faith alone and your money alone and your family alone and your business alone," and the people say, "OK, I'm with you on my key, vote-moving issue." And that's why the coalition holds together.
Remember, Mr. N.: everybody wants to be left alone -- until they need something. And there's a lot of need coming.
We have always had activist gov't these past 70 years; recently it simply has been actively allowing reallocation of resources to a few hands. It will soon be activist in a populist direction. I don't predict which kind of populism....
Blackhalo wrote:
Or an interest free FDIC loan.
Lobbyist Ben Dover wrote:
But we can always transition to a model where we locally grow heirloom tomatoes for each other, and do each other's laundry.
That's a big part of it, but they also mortgaged away their future not too long ago.....they should have sucked on the teat while the sucking was good, if all 3 went at the same time it would have included the get out of jail free card.
Lobbyist Ben Dover wrote:
True, but it turns out that a lot of what we knew as retail is going away. For reasons of inventory optimization if nothing else. Brick and mortar stores, to the extent that they survive, are going to become catalog showrooms.
sm_landlord wrote:
Walmartization of retail.
~splat
If we are going to play Moneyopoly, there has to be a spot on the board where if you land on it, you get paid off 100% on your bad investments for the duration of the game...
since i was partially pigged, here are the latest fha data
http://www.hud.gov/offices/hsg/comp/rpts/com/10jan.pdf
read 'em and weep.
A good description of why the Colorado Amazon tax is bad for small businesses: http://www.coloradopols.com/diary/11830/an-amazon-loss-would-be-very-bad-for-colorado
Re: "The big black Angus cow that everybody wants? We're not buying that cow because it's too expensive," he says. "We want the cow that's got a wounded leg, but she might produce a few more calves for us — and [she's] cheap."
Mark Twain ... Mooo
Washington Post on foreclosures. Nothing new.
"Some of the positive housing data may not be signaling a true turning point, as many servicers are holding back on foreclosures and the related houses are not yet being offered for sale," said Diane Westerback, a managing director at Standard & Poor's. Westerback said it could take 33 months to clear the backlog.
...
More than 75 percent of the borrowers who are now seriously delinquent -- meaning they have missed at least three monthly payments -- have traditional prime loans, according to First American CoreLogic. Most of these borrowers have not made a mortgage payment in six months
...
But other states and jurisdictions have even more drastic measures to slow down the foreclosure process. "There were cases where sheriffs were refusing to file foreclosure notices," said Jay Brinkmann, chief economist for the Mortgage Bankers Association.
...
"Banks have remained in foreclosure paralysis, allowing that backlog to get larger and larger. You can't do that indefinitely," said Sandeep Bordia, head of U.S. residential credit strategy at Barclays Capital.
...
Citigroup is testing a program that allows delinquent borrowers to stay in their home for six months free if they leave the property in good condition, making it easier to sell afterward.
"We are anticipating a foreclosure glut that is likely to come up in next 16 to 18 months. We are trying to stay ahead of this," said Sanjiv Das, chief executive of CitiMortgage. These types of programs are "protecting house prices and consumer sentiment from going down further," he said.
New round of foreclosures threatens housing market - washingtonpost.com
Bob Dobbs wrote:
I don't buy that.
splat wrote:
But without the distributed inventory. Or maybe just perishables. That is, as long as UPS and Fedex can keep their trucks rolling.
To be fair it is the Fed that ultimately decides what an hour's wage will be able to purchase, whether the unions hold out for a nominal increase or agree to cuts. Ford really can't find financing from a bank that pays smaller bonuses?
Well maybe this time the unions lock wages to the discount rate or the CPI w/energy and food. Then the Fed has to retool the presses.
sm_landlord,
Yes, just another step to exclude a middle man like manufacture direct to customer no more warehousing distribution. Lots of jobs lost in efficiency.
Have a cigar, EMI.
ghostfaceinvestah wrote:
Yah, that is funny, and they also claim they are making a massive profit, which makes me laugh even harder ..... but I really start laughing when I think about the fact that Wall Street is holding the same shit and for some reason the market went up 70% -- because speculators pumped up the price of shit .... I still don't get it really.
Black Star Ranch wrote:
Let's see what happens to the Congressman who actually DOES kill a UE extension then.
black dog wrote:
What a giant
that guy is. Bring on the
I'm no
.
Kicking that can is going to get more and more difficult.
1 currency now -yogi wrote:
black dog wrote:
Both are up NSA.
Driving on Highway 99, you pass a large dairyimg concern with half a thousand visible lactaters going at it, and a billboard that tells passing motorists that dairy cows (read: rubbery hamburger) are available for purchase...
Dairymen are losing money hand over teat~
splat
ever wonder why banks are taking forever to foreclose delinquent homes, the first to the sale in a market does the best and the market is falling based on how much delinquent inventory is re-sold
instead the homes are trickled out just like a cartel would
and the Fed, well it carries the power to rescind its regulatory forbearance at any time. Fortunately, just ignoring the problem should last long enough to see the current crop of executives to their golden parachute, the average time at the top is quite short. The problem for Volcker came when John Reed came into the top job at Citi and bolted away from the pack when Citi had enough of a cushion to survive the writedowns, while some of its TBTF compatriots did not.
It is beyond ridiculous that Wells Fargo claims to be in a league of its own with respect to writedowns, despite being an industry leader in the toxic coastal variety of pick a pay Option-ARMs. Who cares about E&Y signing off on Repo 105 when this crap is happening on the main stage
If they're not screwing down-loaders in a federally sanctioned protection racket they're ripping off their artists. What nice people.
~splat
Lobbyist Ben Dover wrote:
Lots of jobs moved... The X cents on the dollar saved by those efficiencies, will still be spent by the end user on other things, or paid out in bonuses or profits.
Ghost...thanks for link....read on pigged thread and added some kaluha to my coffee....
We want the cow that's got a wounded leg, but she might produce a few more calves for us
1 currency now -yogi wrote:
+1.
And did we tell you the name of the game, boy
We call it Riding the Gravy Train.
Good question:
What exactly is the point of having accountants? MarketWatch First Take - MarketWatch
Comrade Janošik wrote:
I think it is reaching the breaking point - as I pointed out before, the delinquency inventory is feeding on itself - as more and more people are allowed to live rent-free for longer and longer, it draws in more and more people.
We are in a downward spiral in the housing market.
Lobbyist Ben Dover wrote:
Neither do publishers, or wholesalers -- the place where Amazon is really taking over.
sm_landlord wrote:
I was wondering if there might be some kind of hybrid, a "rep" store where you can get your hands on the merchandise, get questions answered -- and then order it there. And go there for any additional help and to return merchandise. But I'm not not sure if the economics would be there.
JD,
I cut over from the 58 thru Arvin on hwy 223 yesterday and those dairy farmers sure have some nice mcmansions....I imagine they have triple pane windows and close doors fast though...
EvilHenryPaulson wrote:
You should read Tearing Down The Walls, you would realize it was not John Reed who was to blame.
Bob Dobbs wrote:
Oh. You mean auto dealerships. How's that working out?
Yes, very good!
creditcriminalslovetarp wrote:
After a while, you just get used to it. Said the man who went to junior high across the street from a dairy farm.
Rob Dawg wrote:
Rob, in my model there's little or no stock on hand. That doesn't seem to be the case with today's auto dealers.
Bob Dobbs wrote:
Sure, floor samples and some service. But I think returns will be mostly done directly through the shipping companies. Once you have a Fedex or UPS account, it's easy. If you take out the retail overhead, it's even possible to buy clothing over the Internet. Just order a bracket of sizes and styles, keep what you like, and return the rest. I know a couple of women who buy most of their casual clothes this way.
Rob Dawg wrote:
hahahaha - ouch, we are all C now...
Headline on Marketwatch:
Lehman may be Lawsuit Bait
No, really?
Lobbyist Ben Dover wrote:
Are you going to argue against robots next? Notwithstanding Amazon dodging local sales tax -- something that must inevitably come to an end -- the only problem I see is if they become too dominant and freeze out competition.
We will create and invent new demand in new categories. The trouble is these ventures don't take off when the cost of living relative to wages is very high, they do when it's cheap and it pays to take a risk because there is capacity ready to welcome it.
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
Retail dairies are a fairly recent phenomenon. Even families that lived in the cities, that had no farms, had cows and/or chickens that were tended to daily. My Mom still remembers her Grammy's cow: "Buttercup". Dairymen are losing money with cows due the wholesale processors buying out smaller processors and decreasing payouts for milk product. Pretty much like the Monsantos in corn and soy or the fewer major beef processors, or the Tysons with poultry. The casualties are the growers. No strong special interests to protect them.
energyecon wrote:
Good one. Thanks for restoring my faith in this blog. I thought everyone had lost their sense of humor.
Bob Dobbs wrote:
A lot of those dealerships got state laws put on the books that prohibit direct sales from the manufacturer...
I couldn't do it..
Rob Dawg wrote:
I must admit it's a struggle some days. Gotta keep laughing or the
will kill you.
The ECRI Weekly Leading index increased to 130.6 for the week ending March 5 from an unrevised 129.8. The smoothed, annualized growth rate decreased to 13.1% from an unrevised 13.7%. Outside of this week's gain, the WLI has been moving lower in recent weeks, reflecting the fragility of the recovery. from Economic Analysis, Data, and Forecasting and Credit Risk Management :: Moody's Economy.com
It's been pretty funny to watch the air come out of their language as the annualized growth rate has fallen over the past month or two.
YouTube - "EMI" by the Sex Pistols
I think the musicians will outrace the pro athletes to retake title to the means of production. Not that they're more savvy*, just that eventually the packaged product becomes ridiculous, in light of the premium.
*
The Official Bootleg : Dickey Betts
What great artist needs a record label?
ghostfaceinvestah wrote:
Will do, thanks for the suggestion
That being said, I don't in a word blame John Reed, I just associate the breaking down of a cartel under his tenure
If it weren't him, it would have been someone else, because the incentives just aren't there to maintain a cartel. Otherwise organized crime would have a history with it
Bob Dobbs wrote:
Here we come Sears & Roebuck?!
.
I'm going to live to see us return to the merchandise/retail model of my grandparents?
MLM wrote:
They need to update their index. Something like this might be a start:
Econbrowser: A new index of financial conditions
1 currency now -yogi wrote:
Some kind of bootstrapping support is needed to get new artists out there.
The marketing support that real record companies used to provide to new artists kept things fresh.
yagij wrote:
Only because online retail wipes out everything else in brick-and-mortar, in theory. Of course there is local retail without brick and mortar -- welcome to the street market.
EvilHenryPaulson wrote:
You can definitely blame Citi, but John Reed is not your man.
Bob Dobbs wrote:
If that is the case, I should look back to the business practices of the 60s, 70s, and 80s and ready myself for business in 2030.
EvilHenryPaulson wrote:
Why SHOULD they pay? Where is the point of sale? Plus Amazon presumably has to compete with any number of Ma and Pa internet retailers who will avoid the tax. Should CO be allowed to tax the goods on a truck just passing through? What service does the state or locality provide Amazon, that is on par with the services that they provide a local retailer? The states are just being lazy and trying to force Amazon to do their job for them. CO needs to tax the end user that actually resides in the state and benefits from the tax, not the provider who may not. The reason they don't is that it is a lot of work to do so. Work they are trying to pawn off on Amazon.
If Amazon is subject to state or local sales tax, a thousand start-ups will form in no sales tax states that will serve as billing addresses and re-route orders to split the difference.
yagij wrote:
I had an uncle who spent his entire career as a milkman.
These days, most of our groceries (including half&half for the
) are delivered by the supermarket.
What's old is new again.
How about instead of a "rep store", they mail out catalogs. They can include pictures of the item, a short description, and directions on how to order it through the mail. Of course they would need to build up a reputation as a store that doesn't dish off junk to its customers -- you know, treating customers like human beings. But I didn't see any of these ideas show up in the course syllabi for the Harvard MBA, so we must be on the wrong track here. How about securitizing the customer's eyeballs, ears, sense of smell, and taste. Every person that comes near a real-world or virtual presence of the company shall be assaulted on every front, to the highest bidder, for 30 second intervals. Senses would be heightened while motor skills dampened with airborne drugs pumped into the physical locations, while subliminal messages used to achieve the same effect in the virtual store. To increase the value per customer, they could do things like make everything a maze so that the customer has already invested a lot of time to that point, and won't want to walk away before they leave with what they wanted.
sm_landlord wrote:
CBC Radio 3 does a pretty good job of it in Canada
sm_landlord wrote:
I know. It is just being on the decline end of an era is just sad considering that I'm relatively young.
.
Maybe I just lived in the exception, not the norm.
Doc Holiday wrote:
I've mentioned this before, but I worked for a Big-4 in 1999-2000 as an auditor. The
I saw made my stomach turn. No one in management was interested in getting to bottom of anomalies, or probing deep into the number. Tic-and-tie, sign off, and move on.
I was really expecting a major downturn - like what we're seeing today - after the tech bubble burst. I thought we would get real transparency and accountability, but all we got was Sarbanes-Oxley and a few slaps on the wrist.
Top 10 auto lenders in the U.S. in 2009
Market Share
1. Chase Auto Finance 6.75%
2. Toyota Financial Services 6.14
3. Wachovia Dealer Services 4.3
4. American Honda Financial Services 4.26
5. GMAC Financial Services 3.7
6. Ford Motor Credit Co. 3.46
7. Nissan Infiniti Financial Services 2.29
8. Bank of America 1.99
9. BMW Financial Services 1.84
10. Capital One Auto Finance 1.76
Source: Experian Automotive
* Rankings based on state vehicle registration data on retail loans and leases for new and used vehicles
EvilHenryPaulson wrote:
You've visited Ikea then?
EvilHenryPaulson wrote:
KCRW 89.9 FM | Internet Public Radio Station Streaming Live Independent Music & NPR News Online from Los Angeles, CA - KCRW
does that here with their "Eclectic" stream.
The irony is that public radio is now doing what used to be the primary function of the record companies. So what exactly are the record companies doing?
Hub was with Sears for more than 35 years, when intergy at the top when out the back door, doom came in the front door. Kinda like a funeral for him.
pop group OK GO, who has made their mark with very creative low budget videos that get millions of views on Youtube, etc, just split from EMI yesterday to go it on their own.
the major labels are going to be stuck with just producing the flavor of the day for some handpicked young hot body to lipsync too. To their credit, they are pretty good at that.
12th Percentile wrote:
Milli Vanilli Forever!!!11!!!
Blackhalo
If that's how you feel, why do you pay any taxes at all? I never said Amazon should be singled out, I'm saying that like every other country in the world the same sales taxes should apply whether it be done in person, by phone, by mail, or by telegram. Point of sale is point of delivery. Simple. While they're at it, might as well ban any "use tax" beyond the import duties charged at national borders.
Taxes should be broad based -- you don't want to change market behaviour -- so there shouldn't be any dodges
They should also strive to be simple to follow, and simple to collect.
sm_landlord wrote:
Oooohhh, "fresh"? I'd say stale.
It takes more effort from the consumer to find new artists without relying on marketing and hype, but it's well worth it.
I'm thinking of voting for whichever (viable) candidate wastes the least money campaigning. I know Pink Floyd sold out a bit long ago, but at least they can claw back a little artistic control. I hope it's not all about the money...
sm_landlord wrote:
I'm holding on to my Milli Vanilli CD and keeping it in pristine condition. Might be a collector's item some day.
Jonathan wrote:
You've visited Ikea then?
Or Bed, Bath, and Beyond, and the one Walmart I've been to -- anywhere where you can't see the far wall or get your bearings to the entrance easily, or have to walk a circuit around the entire store to get out unless you choose to retrace your steps.
It's too bad they killed Napster. I remember doing a ton of music discovery with it. I'd find someone with the mp3 of a song I wanted. Then I'd poke around in their upload folder and check out the other mp3s they had. Found a lot of cool stuff that way.
These days Pandora does a decent job of introducing you to different artists. But their library is pretty limited and mostly big label.
The problem is I don't want to just listen to a stream of artists I've never heard of. I want to hear artists I like who might be mainstream and new artists who I might also like alongside them. The technology is getting there, but it hasn't been as quick as some techies might have hoped.
sm_landlord wrote:
First real concert I ever went to was MV. Which I guess means my first real concert was the next one, MC Hammer.
Mr Slippery wrote:
Just because there's only one of something.... doesn't mean there's one person who wants it.
Remember when Milli Vanilli got caught lip syncing and it ended their career?
Britney Spears got caught doing the same thing. No one seems to care anymore (except the Aussies).
ghostfaceinvestah wrote-
Interesting that year-over-year FHA's single-family holdings went up 25% in number of loans but 43% in dollars. They're getting into the deep end of the pool.
Also, the 90-day defaults are going through the roof, 558,000 as of Jan, 2010. It's not clear what period that figure covers, but it's big no matter what.
12th Percentile wrote:
That was different. MV didn't actually sing their own songs. So far as we know, Britney at least sings into the auto-tune machine.
First real concert I ever went to was MV. Which I guess means my first real concert was the next one, MC Hammer, well actually I guess my first real concert was the next one....
MaryAnn wrote:
Sears Holdings has nearly one square foot of retail space for every person in the country. There's no way that persists.
My take on dealing with the auditors.. from past experience and having had to have my team tied up dealing with the f'tards...
For the most part.. bunch of kids just out of college being billed at $120/hr. Completely useless, don't understand the basics and if a deliberate attempt to hide the skeletons was being made they had neither the skill, wit or experience to see it. Usually overseen by one experienced person who's more desperately interested in billable hours and making partner.
~splat
if they had auto tune back in they day, Rob and Fab would've been singing their own songs.
Oxtail wrote:
Yes. Napster cost me a lot of money, because I'd download something new and then go out an buy it. My music purchasing definitely increased after I started using it.
In another previous career, I was responsible for handling the copyright infringement complaints from the music/movie (and porn) industries for an Ivy league university. We would get as many as 100 cease and desist orders a week, mostly about undergrads in the dorms.
Bob Dobbs wrote:
It's my own toxic asset, but I'm holding until maturity.
I wanna toxic asset too!!!
Discounted enough, this could be profitable!!
It's raaaaainnnning here again.
Uncle Ar wrote:
Riiiiighhht. Does your BK forecast also include Toyota and GE?
lawyerliz wrote:
The Market would actually have to work properly and not be
manipulated for that kind of thinking to make sense.
js esq. wrote:
The failure of the record companies to work a deal with Napster should go into the case studies book as one of the greatest business bungles of all time.
UPDATE 1-U.S. FHA chief says FHA not next subprime
| Reuters
this is not a repeat
well the message is, David Stevens is doing his best to yell it over the loud explosions all over the FHA's offices
wonder when Obama will appoint the FHA's regulator (the position is vacant, leaving it up to Geithner without putting him in the awkward position of forcing the funding FHA's minimum 2% statutory capital when Orszag's eyes are bugging out over the deficit)
btw -- fun fact, 25% of US GDP is govt spending, and tax receipts about 15%
they should have asked for help early on
splat wrote:
Yes, that's exactly right.
I was actually put out in front of clients having taken nothing more than accounting 101 (and with a degree from a top liberal arts college). The other people at the firm were a bunch of hard-drinking idiots. Mandatory keg stands at the post-CPA-exam party, for instance.
Rob Dawg wrote:
Only thing that will get us through - that and
and
and
- well, plus some
and maybe...well you get the idea!
With the commentariat and some math/physics snark/nerd wit we will get through as sanely as we can...not very, but hey, we'll be smiling!
picosec wrote:
I think that is the current inventory - i.e. 558k that are 90+ as of 1/31/10
I weep for my SRS.
WHAT AM I MISSING!!!
js esq. wrote:
I bet those have fallen dramatically as students move, to sneaker-net or private club servers.
picosec wrote:
a printing press.
I use Amazon (and Ebay when I can get a deal) for everything I can, including groceries. I am past the instant gratification stage of having to have something immediately. Price is lower, no tax, no gas...and no people frustration. Saves so much time. But my wife and I aren't shoppers. We have always been hunters in the market place. Go in to get what we need as fast as possible and get the hell out. Malls and bigbox stores make me feel claustrophobic. On the flip side, we support our local farmers markets for fresh produce. The money we save through Amazon allows us to afford organic and fresh fruits and veggies. As people's real income shrinks...these grey markets, and ultimately black markets will continue to grow. We are in the spin-down cycle, I can't fault people anymore for trying to save a nickel. It is ultimately self-defeating in the long run, but survival rarely looks past today.
picosec wrote:
What are you weeping about? It's almost into buying range!
inside information
some investor guy wrote:
How much time will the sale of NBC buy? What will be next on the auction block?
Jonathan wrote:
That Econbrowser link will take you to the Hatzius et. al. source paper which is long on econometrics but with this nugget for gfi and cclt - how are these doing in 1Q2010 (drivers for their new FCI to diverge from existing FCIs):
So it appears these toxic assets aren't even easy to buy?
Damaged goods are usually deeply discounted and displayed prominently for quick inventory reduction.
Do they not want to get rid of these?
sm_landlord wrote:
Why? They ended up at Apple... Who REALLY need to buy out the Beatles version, so they can get into the publishing biz.
picosec wrote:
On the bright side - absent a one day 50% move upwards in IYR it can't go to zero. Long at 9 half. I will grit my teeth and buy some more somewhere here in the 6's but given the way it's moving I may just wait for a 4 handle to average down.
Rob Dawg wrote:
I haven't had much humor lately. Mostly disordered thought and language, hallucinations, delusions, odd emotional expressions. After watching CNBC for a while, I become agitated and sometimes make unwanted physical contact with strangers, arms shaking, yelling
"I am Woolworth!"
Blackhalo wrote:
GE jumped the shark May 21, 2007 with the sale of Plastics. It has been in runoff mode ever since and doesn't even seem to realize it.
lawyerliz wrote:
This one's for you, Liz:
Florida seeks Chinese drywall aid - South Florida Business Journal:
I heard locally that grad school applications are perhaps the most competitive ever this year
Listening to this, it sounds like Glengarry Glenn Ross, except it's for real...
Blackhalo wrote:
Nine or ten years later. A lost decade for the music biz.
Blackhalo wrote:
Possibly. I left that job in 2004, so I was there when the issue was in the news every week. Despite that, many of the kids just weren't very tech savvy and left thousands of songs in their shared folders. Even by 2004, a lot of it was moving to Bittorrent, which is harder to catch.
Old Woolworth building in Fort Worth....our gods have become mortal, entropy claims all.
Short Interest Stock Short Selling Data, Shorts, Stocks: Short Squeeze
this is the problem.....
lawyerliz wrote:
California's retail subscription for $2b in GO bonds was so successful they bumped the offer to $2.5b.
My point being, you want toxic assets? Don't worry they'll make more.
Rob Dawg wrote:
And all those idiot CEO's out there who bought into Jack Welch's philosophies.
Are the number of tests taken each year for MCAT, GMAT, LSAT, etc published anywhere?
Am trying to do some research on lexisnexis and ended up here.
Anybody know about conflicting (different property altogether) legal
descriptions on a mtg vs a modified mtg?
Frustration. . . it's gotta be there. . .Typical boom screw up.
Modification filed before mortgage (at lease I assume that the handwritten
letters "mod" means. Mtges slightly different, completely different legal
descriptions. No affidavit explaining it, no explanation in complaint. Prolly
an attempt to add the 2nd legal to the first or the first to the 2nd, but it's up
to them to state the cause of action, not me.
Tox is cheap.
EvilHenryPaulson wrote:
At a local university the amount of grad school students in civil engineering is roughtly double what it was during the boom years. They've been increasing admission standards for undergrad engineering as well as they have too many students. The grad students graduating this year are a depressed group when it comes to job seeking. I'd expect a glut of Phd students the next few years.
The corporate packagers may find the best talent, but they will likely polish it down to appeal to a mass audience to maximize the exploited profit. George Martin might have been as much of an artist as any Beatle, but he's rare. Phil Spector was great, but probably a psychopath.
Support, great. Control, domination of ego, repression of anti-corporate message, not as much.
I believe the leveraged short ETFs are capped at how much they can move in one day. Don't know about SRS, but pretty sure I read once that FAZ was capped at something like 70% move up or down in one day. I guess that's some consolation!
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
Especially when the borrowers walk the walk.
Keys Gate, hahahahah, that's where a broker was trying to sell a property
and offered it for 50k with no takers. She didn't mention any Chinese drywall,
might not know.
The buyer died--allegedly before he ever moved in.
fudge_hend wrote:
What an odd business to turn away paying customers...
Mr Slippery wrote:
What is the frequency, Kenneth?
So did Crosby, Stills and Nash (in the late 80's).....and those guys actually had talent.
lawyerliz wrote:
The lucky stiff.
Native Indians to the newly arrived immigrants: "We knew, you would fuck it all up...sooner or later...so much potential but all we got is this thing called American Idol".
If they don't get jobs, the loans won't be paid back.
Henh, the customers aren't really you know, paying customers.
sm_landlord wrote:
I must admit that when I saw he got $141 as his first monthly check from that $1,000 toxic asset, I was ready to ask Ma if she wanted to try a bit of vulture investing...
At a local university the amount of grad school students in civil engineering is roughtly double what it was during the boom years.
What does the current job market look like for civil engineers? I would think with looming infrastructure/jobs programs, maybe brighter than, say, ME?
Orange County files lawsuit against Toyota - Yahoo! News
stupid move....
Lexus headqtrs in Irvine....
Crosby, Staal, and Nash do have talent and are still playing
Back to lexisnexis. Sigh.
Blackhalo wrote:
You've obviously never worked in a university system. The students are a necessary evil to be dealt with, better left to T.A.s, adjuncts, and non-tenured faculty. They are only necessary to sell the higher education story to the public to get the necessary public funds and donations to fund research or other enlightened activities
??? -- I'm a little late to the discussion, CR, but shouldn't that headline read:
"DOH!--We bought a toxic asset"
EvilHenryPaulson wrote:
Don't know about first two, but LSAC releases LSAT data.
Tests Administered Data
2009-10 cycle will be largest in history.
creditcriminalslovetarp wrote:
Not for long?
Question for creditcriminalslovetarp and ghostfaceinvestah:
What is your read on these in 1Q2010:
(in case you missed it - eyes frequently glaze and brain stutter often occurs upon encountering "econometrics" in a..what was the question again?)
If anyone is interested, here is where they are visually tracking their toxic asset:
Planet Money Tracks Its Very Own Toxic Asset : NPR
Looks like as of the most recent post (February ?) they've recouped $332 of their original $1000 purchase price.
creditcriminalslovetarp wrote:
They can move to Montana with the Amazon guy.
Outsider wrote:
I thought barely any stimulus money went to new infrastructure, let alone infrastructure in general
MLM wrote:
YouTube - Frank Zappa - Montana 08-21-73
I've been reading some of the Lehman story and it makes Enron look like kid stuff.
The entire system is rife with massive fraud, all the way to the very top.
My days as an investor in US debt and equity instruments are over.
I'll only invest in people I know.
Wall*Street gets their toxicity redeemed @ 100%, but reality is as low as 2 Cets Plain in trading between professionals, funny that.
+1
I love that song.
1 currency now -yogi wrote:
A band I manage(yes, I have too many fingers in too many pies) has finally woken up to reality and is going it themselves. An established act, terminal 1 step forward, two steps back kind of thing.
The deals on offer were for 28% of retail(25% of downloads), while Amazon can do distro for 45% and iTunes is 70%
So on a $10 download you make $2.50 through the label instead of $7 directly, on a $17 record you get $4.76 from the label instead of $5.65(after cost) from Amazon, $8.00 selling direct to stores or $15.00 (after cost) if sold at shows. There's less than 200 vinyl stockists so it's easy to either deal with them directly or through 1 stops.
In addition, the label also only pays out 1/2 within 120 days(even digital), holding the other half in reserve for 18 months in case the cassettes melt or laquer platters shatter. Meanwhile Amazon and iTunes pay in 30 and retail pays up front.
We have our own bar codes, I can get a multiple printers to bid on a run of 5000, can get quality records made in the Czech republic for under a buck unit cost.
Great site.
Bob Dobbs wrote:
Well-said, BD. That is true right down to the local level. I have seen "property rights activists" do a 180 and demand emergency restrictions on a neighbor's proposed land use that they don't like.
EvilHenryPaulson wrote:
Some of it...
Stimulus Pie Chart - Economix Blog - NYTimes.com
Outsider wrote:
Civil encompasses a large spectrum. Roads/bridges/infrastructre/environmental type firms that work with the Government are stable and haven't had the huge layoffs others have, but they are probably only 40% of the market (just an educated guess), but percentage wise its increasing day by day. The government is spending a ton and no one else is. Structural/Geotech and other specialties that were involved with the building boom have been hammered so for every graduate there is probably 3-4 experienced engineers who would do the same work for the same pay (layoffs have been anywhere from 20%-90% of staff at most places). Not a good time to graduate (the worst I can recall, or have even heard of from the REALLY old guys).
1 Enron Unit = $30 Billion
1 Lehman Unit = Price Less
China may let yuan rise next month - MarketWatch
WTF. When is being a "currency manipulator" a bad thing? Isn't every single country with a peg to another currency by definition a currency manipulator?
I thought barely any stimulus money went to new infrastructure, let alone infrastructure in general
I'm thinking maybe a future jobs program. Surely we're going to need infrastructure investment before long. Would think there may be a (future) jobs program tied to that?
black dog wrote:
And if they stay for six months free and don't leave the property in good condition -- what then? Not like they even have a deposit on the line.
If it doesn't make sense on its face, there must be another reason: I suggest it's a way to keep from realizing the accounting loss for 6 more months.
mp wrote:
That was the KD reaction, too. Others seem to be nonplussed. Goldman made a statement this morning that they don't do Repo 105s.
MLM wrote:
Yes, but we also need to hire each other's consulting firms, to provide jobs for college graduates.
mp wrote:
I've got a friend who works for FINRA who said "Bernie? I can't believe it. Everybody knew Bernie."
js esq. wrote:
here is the MCAT data, it's a PDF but has charts
http://www.aamc.org/data/facts/charts1982to2010.pdf
applications are elevated, but have plateaued
here is the GMAT data,
Top MBA Schools | MBA Admissions Statistics
but you have to look it up one school at a time and there is no historical data
No. Toyota doesn't build union plants in this country (and their one 'shared' union plant is about to shut down), and GE is TBTF and gets and endless suck on the teat (and jack welch the douch#bag got out early enough where none of GE's issues get blamed on him even though he is the root cause).
MLM wrote:
Doveryai, no proveryai
Uncle Ar wrote:
F never went into BK, did it?
They will, next year.
Rob Dawg wrote in reply to. 9:49 am
To be fair it is the unions that will make that choice not Ford.
what you are saying makes no sense and is un warranted union bashing
ford is an international company and is in a relatively good position
almost three times as many workers are employed by ford world-wide as within the usa
the days of unions being able to negotiate extravagant or even great pay and benefits for the workers they represent are over
off shoring jobs, factories, corporate offices and helping china to run the table against american labor has all had its desired effect
the american middle class is on its knees
as i wrote on these pages 2 or 3 years ago, all of this is by plan
what politician was willing to tell the ameerican people the truth, that our standard of living was going to be pared down to size in favor of emerging markets...on a few...perot, and who else
the american people cant handle the truth they always want sunny optimistic fairy tale candidates
so they got the slogan back in the late 70s...its mourning in america (mis-spelling intended)
we got sold out
the american middle class, (and the unions) are on a long down hill slide
enjoy the ride because nothing happens without coincident and un intended effects
Family friend's son just graduated from A&M with Masters in Civil Engineering...took a job for $23,000 with Txdot. The future is so bright he is wearing shades.
1 Lehman Unit = ?
The stimulus money that did go to infrastructure is what allowed many Civil firms in that area to remain pretty level as it replaced the complete drop off of private development.
for every graduate there is probably 3-4 experienced engineers who would do the same work for the same pay (layoffs have been anywhere from 20%-90% of staff at most places).
Wow. And engineering used to be such a worthy profession. Very sad. Now the new market is basically politics and fraud.
Oh, and healthcare. We'll all be healthcare providers soon.
they will consolidate back into Torrance hdqtrs..
Mr Slippery wrote:
I predict that the last chairmen of the top ten New York banks, along with some government officials, will be put down like rabid dogs in a great public spectacle.
mock turtle wrote:
Not at all. The unions will have the choice of accepting a bad (for them) contract or forcing Ford to reorganize. There's no bashing involved.
sm_landlord wrote:
EvilHenryPaulson wrote:
At least doctors have all-but guaranteed employment upon graduation. For us lawyers, it's a
. I went to a top 25 school, graduated with honors, had the big firm job, but got laid off when everything went to hell. It took almost a year to find a new job, and now I'm working as a contractor doling out stimulus funds.
You can't help but pity those poor fools who are eager to take almost $200,000 in loans for dismal employment prospects. The firms that lived off structured finance aren't coming back to hire 100+ people starting classes again.
When a barking
protests too much, they most certainly are the source of the noxious odor...
I'm thinking maybe a future jobs program. Surely we're going to need infrastructure investment before long. Would think there may be a (future) jobs program tied to that?
I know a Gila teen, a little rusty though. Looking for work.
mp wrote:
mp (My days as an investor in US debt and equity instruments are over.)
Uh oh.
The other day Conjure started channeling Andrew Mellon and now mp himself channels Karl
MLM wrote:
Bad Russian, great advice.
psychodave wrote:
I haven't read Karl, but can tell you that, from what I've read of the Lehman debacle thus far, the entire system is rife with corruption.
The US isn't becoming a banana republic, it is one.
psychodave wrote:
We're all Denningered now?
China may let yuan rise next month
Depends on whether or not their head colds clear up?
I was looking at the lehman article in the la times, trying to find the auditor.....surprise surprise, none was mentioned.
Rob Dawg wrote:
Ditch chiropractors from being covered under medical insurance and costs will start suddenly dwindle. Easy deal to make.
energy, where was that information? in the Hud pdf?
99% of 5% of the world's population think the dollar is the cat's meow...
YouTube - Tom Jones - What's New Pussycat
I'm thinking there might not be a special pre-election stimulus plan than whatever ~$135bn spending bill gets passed now.
They have the liberty of picking the election battleground, and why choose the economy when you can talk about Afghanistan or Iraq instead
Dairy--
Here in Northwest Washington, the local dairies got $18.67 per hundredweight in 2007 and $17.48 in 2008. For 2009 it was $11.77. So it's no surprise that it's a buyer's market for cows.
Uncle Ar wrote:
Ernst & Young
BTW: Pay particular attention to the "Paid Off" percentage. At some point, it just goes flat.
Blackhalo wrote:
You miss the point...shopkeepers do not necessarily use those public resources either (they rent space only, they might be headquarted anywhere in the world) - it's the reduction in tax base that takes place to provide the necessary services to the community. Amazon is extracting resources from the community, and not giving any back.
the entire system is rife with corruption.
What really make me
about this is all the servicepeople we have lost for our country's cause. I don't disparage any soldier his honor, but I don't want my son fighting for the
. It's quite a dilemma.
tncubsfan wrote:
Those books are classified under national security, on a need to know basis. Heaven forbid if some smart bond vigilante got their ands on them and extrapolated to the rest of the ex-investment banks...
From what I've read thus far, these people are so morally deficient that the only way to fix the problem is to rid the system of them.
mp wrote:
The US isn't becoming a banana republic, it is one. [mp]
Yup, since the Kennedy assassination, if you ask me.
We're all Denningered now? [sm_landlord]
+4/3rds
mp wrote:
We have just realigned our financial system to compete with the rest of the world.
I don't think this kind of thing is "contained" to the U.S. or any other banana republics, for that matter
And a nice flourescent vest I imagine.
I ran Planet Money's bond in bloomberg, and it's not going to last until Thanksgiving. Based on a few scenarios, they could yield up to about 50% on the bond, or lose most of it. They'll know in about 4 months.
creditcriminalslovetarp wrote:
The Hatzius et. al. paper on their new Financial Conditions Index - those are the drivers for the rather dramatic negative divergence of their FCI from the others
Outsider wrote:
It still is, but at least from the Civil/Structural side it hasn't come to grips with the productivity gains of the recent years, much like many other industries. The advancements in software for design has been pretty stunning over the last 10-20 years. We just don't need as many engineers as we used to.
Education requirements will go up (Masters degress will be required at some point to be entry level) - this is already being advanced and there will be increased specialization. Pay will probably be fairly stagnant or deflate for new graduates as we have an oversupply of labor unless we have a reinflation of the bubble or some grand public infrastructure projects.
John Stark wrote:
That's not such a bad hit when you look at the feed price collapse. Wheat near contract off 50% for instance.
Off to lunch with the two prettiest girls in the world! Mind the
while I'm out...
And interestingly, whereas the auditor that signed off on Enron's books got taken to the woodshed, no one in media has anything to say about Ernst & Young. I guess they must be insiders. Or else TPTB figure that they can't afford to do the sacrificial dog and pony show too often lest they run out of people to sign off on their schemes.
Making 4,000 rubbery Big Mac patties out of Bessie seems like a better deal...
have a link?
I've been gold detecting for a couple days..might have missed it...
I wish the military would have practiced in the ocean....desert has more .50 caliber bullets than wall street bonus amounts..
Uncle Ar wrote:
I find it hard to believe that there were not some Glass-Seagall violations in there somewhere.
more proof we have learned absolutely nothing, or, why the US will eventually collapse.
REUTERS BREAKINGVIEWS; Mortgage Bonds Make a Comeback - NY Times?
"The market for private-label mortgage bonds in the United States might be ready for revival. "
ghostfaceinvestah wrote:
How To Move To Asia
I took that as they are the auditors who just discovered that the auditors Lehman had while a going concern screwed the pooch big time. I was looking for that auditor, not the post mortem one.
That's absolutely true. Goldman uses Repo 106.
ghostfaceinvestah wrote:
aka, "A fool and his money will soon be parted"
It seems to me, the question is how close is their tranche from being wiped out? I assmue that it's not senior enough that there is any chance of it being repaid. As a matter of fact, with a price like that, I assume that is either already writing down principal, or is close to it. This is an excelent chance for them to explain the trancheing of mortgages and how reposessions/short sales and other early defaults are good for some bond holders and bad for others.
We are more of a banana split republic, a trough if you will.
What was that line in Boy in the Bubble by Paul Simon...
These are the days of lasers in the jungle
Lasers in the jungle somewhere
Staccato signals of constant information
A loose affiliation of millionaires
And billionaires and baby
These are the days of miracle and wonder
This is the long distance call
The way the camera follows us in slo-mo
The way we look to us all
The way we look to a distant constellation
That's dying in a corner of the sky
Therse are the days of miracle and wonder
And don't cry baby, don't cry
Don't cry
edit:
Uncle Ar, the post mortem was some law firm. E&Y was the auditor
EHP,
Amazon plans on replacing the big publishing houses. They will too. If I was younger I would go into publishing. I even worked out in my head my biz plan. Not going to happen tho.
Amazon just started publishing books under their own label by the way.
daddyo wrote:
Hopefully they don't sit around and plaintively weep about it in the mean time.
Interesting Times wrote:
Goldman announced today that under no circumstances will they use Repo 105's on Tuesday's when the moon is full .
OK. Now that is deflationary. ouch.
It seems to me, the question is how close is their tranche from being wiped out? I assmue that it's not senior enough that there is any chance of it being repaid. As a matter of fact, with a price like that, I assume that is either already writing down principal, or is close to it. This is an excelent chance for them to explain the trancheing of mortgages and how reposessions/short sales and other early defaults are good for some bond holders and bad for others.
The tranche they have is the second from the bottom at this point, and the one below is 3 months from being gone at current speeds. It's a thin tranche, and will likely only last a few months.
Recession officially over... I have two job offers on the same day.
is one the cto position?
broward wrote:
Please take mine. You would be an asset as a speed bump.
EvilHenryPaulson wrote:
That will go down in history as one of the greatest understatements of the 21st century.
{INCOMING!}
105 how it zer'ves us right
Elvis wrote:
Have you read The Men Who Stare At Goats by any chance?
mp wrote:
No surprise here. Did I mention that I worked for E&Y?
Whiskey wrote:
No. I'm not into beastiality.
Uncle Ar wrote:
No, but it's surprisingly good.
Moving to Singapore, that's fine. Moving to China, not sure that's a great idea. Especially when point #3 in that article is "3. Don't worry about learning a foreign language". And it recommends teaching English as a transition job? Lol.
Not everyone is rich and gets handed a cushy job in a foreign country which pays 5 times the local salary.
js esq. wrote:
Was that right before you starting working for the Esquire magazine? BTW, how are they competing today with the more provocative magazines?
Rob Dawg wrote:
Yup. A bit of a runup in commodities, followed by...
I was under the impression you were into sheep thrills, King.
Elvis wrote:
I'm pretty risk-adverse about money and women but I'm fearless with software & jobs.
js esq. wrote:
You are making me happy. Keep the Law
Song playing, Bro JS!
There's no where to place your trust in the markets. Systematically we have been let down by: SEC, Auditors, Analysts, Boards of Directors, Executives, Judges, Brokers, Fund Managers, Federal Reserve and every regulator below it
We're going to end up like Mulder and Scully on the X-Files, in some dingy place muttering "The Truth Is Out There"
the situation is absurd
Americans are cowards mostly. How long you guys are going to bitch@blog about your own politicians fucking up your own ass? Until your own lube runs out? Instead of actually doing something...
+1
tbgpalisades wrote:
The local courts, police and fire dept do not protect their inventory? No need for water, sewer and power? What service do the sales taxes pay for, that Amazon benefits from?
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
We don't have many sheep here in Tahiti. I stick to fit women in bikinis. Or no bikinis, if they prefer.
Please... lead the way.
EvilHenryPaulson wrote:
Interesting...
The firm sold most of its American operations to KPMG, Deloitte & Touche, Ernst & Young and Grant Thornton LLP.
Arthur Andersen - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
LoserBeachBum
So when is Germany going to eat the losses at its wild & crazy banks? How will Germany's exports fare now that they have the burden of being the strongest growth within the EMU? The aging demographic isn't getting any better
EvilHenryPaulson wrote:
Maybe our original mistake was trusting anyone in the first place. I'm feeling like you in regards to it all being absurd. It hit me about a week or two ago, and I actually started thinking that I had reach peak
. In hindsight, I realized that I had no reason to trust this system in the first place. My "winnings" just allowed me to bleet along with my fellow sheep.
EvilHenryPaulson wrote:
EHP, I think you're right. In fact, I think we're already there.
Unless you've got the money and clout to send in your own people to find out what's going on, you're at their mercy.
Henceforth, my money is staying close to home with people I know.
LoserBeachBum wrote:
Not doing anything until the unemployment benefits stop being extended, the gov't cheese stops being delivered, and the cable stops working.
Oxtail wrote:
Who'll buy the debt? not Ben, not me.
bbartlog wrote:
Disclosure would be devastating to the TBTF ponzi.
Elvis wrote:
In that order.
yes, yes they are
large and strong applicant pools
highly uncertain funding beyond the short term
makes for an interesting process
"Please... lead the way. "
Start shouting, start forming groups, start making trouble! Wake the fuck up!
1st lesson: "Stop using the word please"....
mp, this will surely not make you feel any better:
'Medical mafia's' Howard Awand pleads guilty - Mar. 12, 2010
Prosecutors charged that Awand recruited top doctors to serve as expert witnesses and to treat injured plaintiffs by arranging kickbacks and using his sway over lawyers to offer the doctors protection from malpractice suits. The doctors allegedly performed complex and sometimes unnecessary spine surgeries that in several cases left patients paralyzed.
EvilHenryPaulson wrote:
This is why, 401k aside, I haven't put a penny into equities since I quit E&Y back in 2000. Sure, I miss the market runups, but every penny I've set aside to save is still there, should I need it someday. Obviously, I won't get as rich as most people here by stashing my cash at ING Direct, but I cannot stomach the rigged systems that are our capital markets today. I'd love to invest our money and get real returns, but I don't see a way to do it where it isn't just gambling.
steinly wrote:
If they don't get in, it sounds like a great excuse to tour SE Asia for three years.
LoserBeachBum wrote:
Did you hear me? What happened? Is it over?
Outsider wrote:
Oh, don't get me started on doctors. I have more heartfelt respect for the kid who mows my grass.
yagij wrote:
The sad thing is that I really liked being a lawyer. I want to do it again, but every attorney job I apply for has at least 400 applicants. And I feel sorry for those who are my year a 1-2 behind me, and got swept up in this storm through no fault of their own. But if you're applying to law school today, knowing that firms have been laying off thousands of attorneys and low-level work (doc review, due diligence) is being outsourced to temporary attorneys in computerized-sweatshop conditions, you have no one to blame for your predicament but yourself.
js esq. wrote:
Um, you haven't seen the rates recently then. I doubt anyone is getting rich stashing money in ING.
Speaking of corruption, here's the latest country by country rankings:
Corruption by country. Definition, graph and map.
And look what country has the fewest problems!
Elvis wrote:
Delivering the bare minimum to prevent riots will only placate the crowds for a definite amount of time. Eventually the lack of upward mobility, or the lack of having one's rewards match one's work frustrate them. Then the crowd begins to focus on taking what they want now, as it is more successful than working to get what they want in the future. If things are actively declining, then the break even point between taking today versus working under the current system is brought forward very fast. When I say taking, I don't mean it to necessarily be of the illegal sort, generally I use it to mean asserting their power.
js esq. wrote:
Buy soda machines and fill them with beer. Put them at college dorms. You will make money. Just give the RA a 10% kickback.
The guy that owns the planes we rent from at the airport in the Big Smoke is crying the blues financially, and a few weeks ago at another estblishment when I was up in a sail-plane, the owner of that place was trying to put the hard-sell on my wife buying his business from him. (we have zero interest in doing that, it'd be like a bar owner asking you after you've been there a few times if you'd like to buy his place, while he ran it)
People are looking for money somewhere, anywhere.