Manufacturing and Trade Inventory-to-Sales Ratio: Inventory Adjustment Over
Submitted by
CalculatedRisk on Fri, 03/12/2010 - 7:30am (91 comments)
Shopping at Amazon?
Wait! If you click on the Amazon banner link at the top of the page first, HCN will get a percentage of anything you purchase for 24 hours!
Open predictions
Our local book authors
User login
Who's online
There are currently 2 members and 143 guests online.
Currently online
Recent Recommendations
talking to a HDD manuf. yesterday, the old normal was 4 to 6 weeks of inv., the new normal is 3-to-5. Lot's of other tech companies doing similar adjustments.
100 Trades,
92 Wins
Watch the transports for early signs of failure to rebuild inventory.
And I know this is a cash on the barrelhead site, but did aggregate consumer debt rise by any chance? Some Americans have some issues with paying up front for things, so I hear.
The paper bills somehow wind up in Dubai...
Inventory Adjustment Over
That makes sense since retail sales tax collections have stabilized. Oh wait ...
So, if the ratio of inventories to sales has been falling for decades, what were retailers doing with those ever-larger stores? Did a substantial portion of inventory move from warehouses to stores?
The market can't get much flatter! I just looked at Yahoo finance and the Dow, Oil, and gold were all showing 0.0% change for the day. It wasn't an error either
I've never seen that before during a trading day!
Have the kids turned on tech?
The point is people have no value anymore unless they are high level purchasing units. We have become a nation of money suckers. Souless, cruel, and predatory.
Gattaca... this is our future.
To busy texting to play.
Last year there were a lot of chumps stuck with sushi inventory. That was painful. Not likely to be eager to repeat, assuming any remained in business after the liquidations.
some investor guy wrote:
SKU explosion. 14 kinds of mustard. 60 sizes/brands of toothpaste. Store brands. Remember, some shelf space is essentially rented at a profit by some manufacturers. And finally large footprints represented a subtle form of CRE speculation.
The youngins are the ones most likely to go Ludd...
some investor guy wrote:
Check with dryfly on this, not only the store but also the JIT supply chain as warehouse...
We have an absurd amount of indoor retail space per capita, compared to most of the world.
France and England have a lot more garden and public park space in their cities, although we kill 'em on wilderness. The Everglades are going to sugar, by the way.
some investor guy wrote:
Compare your avg 1970s hardware store to HomeDepot today.
a. Which looks like a store?
b. Which looks like a warehouse?
My conclusion: The 1970s warehouses became stores.
Nanno,
I posted this yesterday. Government greed does not see they slit their own throat. Colo Gov is an idiot and is not running for a second term.
Amazon to sever all state ties | coloradoan.com | The Coloradoan
Obama's $3,000,000,000,000 Tax Hike - WSJ.com
38 different kinds of mustard, but hardly any variance in playing ketchup on the shelves...
Taste Technologies: The Ketchup Conundrum : The New Yorker
Mustard now comes in dozens of varieties. Why has ketchup stayed the same?
Read more: Taste Technologies: The Ketchup Conundrum : The New Yorker
Because it's perfectly awful.
Sub tomato paste and win every time.
SKU implosion.
Tim waiting for 2012 wrote:
Actually a reprint from The Heritage Foiundation
1 currency now -yogi wrote:
At the same time as Avatar is making money all around the world (it generated $1bn after less than three weeks of release), something that strangely resembles its plot is taking place. The southern hills of the Indian state of Orissa, inhabited by the Dongria Kondh people, were sold to mining companies that plan to exploit their immense reserves of bauxite (the deposits are considered to be worth at least $4trn). In reaction to this project, a Maoist (Naxalite) armed rebellion exploded...
I thought the Heritage Foundation was a safe house for Dick Cheney to make speeches at and not get heckled, and by the way.... you're a Great American.
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
JD,
I would be wary of trying to make anything of those numbers just yet; there could be a number of factors. The big three system manufacturers (Microsot, Sony, and Nintendo) are all still riding the sales of their consoles that have been out for years, so any reduction in the sale of consoles could simply be related to the fact that people that have wanted to buy a console have had plenty of time to do it before now.
As for games, last year had a number of big name games being released, especially "Rock Band", which was a new twist on the Guitar Hero-style music games, which also included a lot of expensive peripherals (microphones, guitar-controllers, drumsets, etc). This year there was no such release, which would mesh with what the article is saying about "music games".
energyecon wrote:
Then you have your live streaming and your laptop, your flat-screen (soon to be replaced by mini projectors). Then you have your consumers who already have so much junk ...
Then you have improvements to recycling, and those nutty greens encouraging social responsibility and smaller footprints...
I'm keeping my vinyl, and I heard a 78' recently of Billie Holiday's Blue Monday on a 40-year-old bottom-of-the line system that sounded like she was in the room.
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
A propaganda arm of one section of the elite, mainly involved in weapons, extraction, tobacco and banking and finance.
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
Be Here Now, Man
JimPortland<
City Grill has a fantastic view.
Wildwood resturant was horrid.
DesChutes beer is fantastic.
Thanks LBD for the story.
I'm certain for the average person the equation will be pay more...get less, pay more taxes and get less in return. I just read an article about the inflation in consumer goods over the last 2 years in the consumer staples area of food, energy, services like health care etc. Deflation yeah but only in sectors. What govts don't get is their traditional means of raising revenues aren't going to work this time. The handwriting should be on the wall as revenues are declining not because the taxes aren't high enough or broad enough, but because people simply are tapped out. Taxing more won't bring in more, it will do the opposite.
With that said, its a conundrum, I have no clue how this is going to play out and ends nicely for anyone.
And for your amusement:
We Bought A Toxic Asset; You Can Watch It Die : NPR
Wow. That is a bold move (by Amazon). Plenty of repercussions.
Wildwood was a disappointment for me as well. Over hyped. The food was not anything exceptional and the service was not up to par.
adornosghost wrote:
True, but I would still appreciate some intellectual honesty. It is not true to say
"A nearly $1 trillion tax increase is reserved for couples earning more than $250,000 and individuals earning more than $200,000. Beginning in 2011, the President's budget will increase these Americans' taxes by: . . . ."
when what is being discussed is the expiration of the Bush tax cuts passed in 2001 and 2003.
Obama is not proposing that they be repealed. Their repeal was written into the original law.
But, without an inventory correction and MBS purchases by the gov't and housing tax credits and extended unemployment benefits, etc..., how will our economy grow?
Haven't seen it. Is there a scarce resources/environmental plot/subplot? I read something about a colonization theme.
Somebody in the virginia state capital drank the Kool-Aid.
Virginia's FY2010 runs from july 1st 2009 to june 30th 2010. In december they revised the revenue forecast for FY2010 to -2.7% from initial budget. Through last month actual revenues were trailing the initial forecast by -4.7%. Yet someone revised UP the revenue forecast for FY2010 to -2.0%. After february (brutal) number came out the state is now down -4.8% from initial forecast.
I keep close track of virginia's number and as we have moved through FY2010 collections have gotten progressively WORSE. And this is the sign of a recovery??
If so, I can't wait for the coming layoffs for FY2011 to turbo charge this recovery.
HG,been to Powell's yet? DO NOT miss it.
black dog wrote:
In the backwoods with moonshine?
Nothing to worry about, boys and girls. Bernanke has our back.
marc faber don't expect another crash ... bernanke won't allow it: Tech Ticker, Yahoo! Finance
sportsfan wrote:
You are right; on this blog I do expect factual and honest discourse, relatively speaking of course. Agendas do not make for good reading.
Worth the read...
and the bond is currently paying 14%/per month!
rosethorn wrote:
I like the representative's response:
It is time to stick together with a government who can't manage its finances responsibility, but not time to stick together with the people who pay you.
In the backwoods with moonshine?
I actually tried that combo once Kool-Aid+moonshine. NEVER EVER AGAIN.
I like how all the news reports initially called the Feb retail sales "strong" and have now backed off and added the January revision.
The bottom line is retail sales are sluggish - and have grown very slowly over the last few months.
best to all
James Brown's body is 'missing from its crypt', alleges singer's daughter
Could it be that the warehouses have BECOME stores a la Costco, Sam's Club, etc.?
JP beat me to it. Serves me right for skipping to the bottom.
I'll put him back. I just wanted to hang out for awhile. He still looks the same by the way.
black dog wrote:
That is what leads to inbreeding in those backwoods.
yagij wrote:
I still have issues wrapping my head around tariffs on interstate trade, which I thought the constitution tended to frown on. A kind of domestic Smoot-Hawley.
Obama needs to propose a National Inventory Stock program. He could sell it as preparing for crisis in which the country stores 10 years worth of goods for disaster. That will get those GDP numbers humming.
...they stole his soul?
YouTube - James Brown - I Feel Good
I'm not getting this Amazon and Colorado thing:
I thought many states required online retailers to collect and remit state sales tax for products delivered into the state. Amazon seems to take the position that no one other than Colorado has ever done this.
Goldman says it's never used repo 105 transactions - MarketWatch
of course, god's workers dress in white and walk around with golden halos beaming rays of light like the ark of convenant...
wait tell they open it or maybe they did
Powells is on the list for today, Tom Stone.
I just figured even death couldn't stop James Brown from staging a come back tour.
Yancey Ward wrote:
And like our strategic petroleum reserve, it can be used as a carrot to pander during tough times or liquidated through good times! We win either way!**
.
(** The US Government reserves the right to ensure that citizens of NYC and DC are served first to the point of being overly comfortable. Any objection to this policy must be submitted in writing to start the 9 month committee review process in which time the existing policy will be executed to its fullest extent.)
sportsfan wrote:
I think it only applies if they have a physical presence in that state. What CO is doing is say that since Amazon is paying affiliates then they are acting as agents on behalf of Amazon and hence constitute a physical presence within the state.
"Manufacturing and Trade Inventory-to-Sales Ratio: Inventory Adjustment Over"
In the famous words of Homer Simpson: "So far."
Nanno,
Kind of like when I buy a rental house for almost half of the tax assessed value. Difference is I will hold it for ever or at least a long enough time to collect my investment back and then sell for the original price or more if I wish. Both have little risk and great gains. Both practices point out that these properties were ever worth what easy money lead people to pay balloon prices. Making money in the good times and the bad.
Just a reminder that the BFF Poll is open.
black dog wrote:
Mix it with fruit punch, aka "hunch punch".....
...is there a reason the WSJ and the Heritage foundation are verbally castigated but the DailyKOS isn't?
Interesting day yesterday, we had a fight break out in one of the bars. Typically, a day shift in either of them consists of mostly 20-30 old guys watching sports and talking politics. Yesterday, an old retired fire Captain got into it with another old guy who said that most of Las Vegas' top salaries were paid to firemen. It continued escalating until a fight broke out. Here is the surprising actual truth:
....."According to figures provided by the city, 71 of the top 100 salaries are paid to firefighters. In fact, four bring in more than the city manager or city attorney. In some cases those salaries exceed $200,000 a year. Salary records obtained by News 3 show that 65 (of the 71) of them earned between $181,000 and nearly a half-million dollars. AND, If you want to talk about a list of red-hot salaries, take a look at Clark Countys payroll (vs. the city of Las Vegas), 65 of the top 100 county moneymakers are firefighters. At the top of the list is Steve McClintock who earned more than $450,000 as a "Rural Fire Coordinator"." (BTW, thats more than the POTUS makes.) Mayor Oscar Goodman says he'll fire them all and rehire them for less. He was accused of being "a bully" during labor negotiations. Pssst.....Goodman is an old Mob attorney - I don't think they understand the real description of "bully".
Do firefighters make too much in rough economic times? - Las Vegas- msnbc.com
Nanoo-Nanoo wrote:
Freaking awesome!
I like Repo 105, maybe we ought to do a skip-trace on the
ethics, see what we can dredge up?
Elvis wrote:
The sun sends out photons, which plants and algae convert to energy and growth.
Animals eat the growth and we either eat it or the grown animals.
Humans mainly blog, design robots so they can blog more, or
in their spare time.
yagij wrote:
I would think advertising in Colorado and having sales result from that advertising would be a presence in the state.
Obviously, the term 'physical presence' came about long before the internet. I do know some states have hassled with some companies over sales resulting from trade shows in the state when there was no other physical presence, but I don't know how those disputes were resolved.
I really don't care one way or the other how it all shakes out as between states and companies.
CR, I like your blog but you need to get back to your roots a bit with more housing data, so 20 years from now our Chinese masters will have a chronicle of the collapse of our country.
Along those lines, you failed to mention the monthly FHA report yesterday, always a great read.
http://www.hud.gov/offices/hsg/comp/rpts/com/10jan.pdf
The graphs on page 7/28 are great - fewer prepayments, lots more claims. Page 9 too, look at all the properties they now hold.
Page 11 has some great graphs as well.
And you could do us all a favor and graph out the default rate, which the FHA will not do (9.4% in Jan vs 9.12% in Dec).
Middle Class Money Angst Still Apparent in Data - Up and Down Wall Street Daily - R. Forsyth - Barrons.com
sportsfan wrote:
I'm more of a fan that they are passing new/more taxes to take care of their problem and the companies are responding accordingly. Also appealing to a business through "We are in this all together" instead of actually fixing the problems is poor pool to me, and I'd move out of the state if my choice was keep my customers or support bloated government.
sportsfan wrote:
....how would I figure out 'sales tax' if I trade a dozen eggs for a loaf of home-made wheat bread? Do I tax the chicken?
ghostfaceinvestah wrote:
To what end? They'll only rewrite it to suit their purpose anyway............it's called historical revisionism-
Elvis wrote:
ObJoke: get off me dad, you're crushing my smokes!
Scary chart pron:
Chart of the Day - S&P 500 PE ratio at the high end of a 60-year range
Citizen Rupert's endeavors are easily identified for what they happen to be, propaganda.
Rupert doesn't run the Heritage Foundation, JD....you're smarter than that statement.
I don't blame Amazon for not wanting to deal with Colorado sales tax. There isn;t one taxing district here, there are hundreds: state sales tax, county sales tax, city sales tax, special district sales tax, you name, we've got. The applicable sales tax can be different on different sides of the same street. And the rates don't all change at the same times.
If you have a physical store in a known location, you can figure out what your sales tax needs to be, but the system is not set up for anything else. I don't know how Amazon could ever figure what the "correct" amount of sales tax is based on their local reps.
Check em for 100-104, and 106 to ~
But did they deny using any accounting gimmicks to distort their balance sheet, or using AIG's bogus AAA rated "insurance" swaps to leverage their capital reserves, until they got caught and needed an emergency backdoor bailout??
Japan Kept Secret Deposit With Fed - WSJ.com
.
The only reason the venue shopping for more favorable tax locations is occurring is because the taxes are unreasonable. That simple. So simple the States are missing the entire point of taxes. Taxes do not cover spending. Taxes cover services. Every level (tranche?) of government is failing to provide services commensurate with spending.
yagi, everything I read says the States are in serious trouble with their budgets. I suppose some combination of additional taxes and reduced spending is going to happen most places.
BSR, I would never impose a sales tax on barter transactions, though I suspect most States have a law doing that on the books. No idea who complies with it.
BTW, there really is a problem with firefighter salaries based on what I've been reading. I'm no fan of Goodman, but something dramatic has to happen to get things back in balance and he might just accomplish that his way.
EvilHenryPaulson wrote:
Your point?
You must realize how vast Citizen Rupert's coat-tails extend, BSR...
Why does reich-wing radio pimp the Heritage Foundation as they do? (become a member today and we'll send you out 5 pocket constitutions with your $25 membership, so when you go to the tea-party rallies, if a Lib shows up you can thrust it in their face...)
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
Lets say we clump ALL Conservative issues, including all old guard fiscal conservatives, Democratic blue dogs, and we may as well throw in ALL Christians - whether saved or not, into the boiling Rupert pot......I'm sure he's the head of the whole cabal.....You're smarter than that, JD......
The
tells me it's time to go look for my spot in front of Lowe's.
But I'll have to check out that NPR podcast later - for professional reasons, of course.
....you really a day laborer at Lowes? Does it pay well? Do you have one of those black T-Shirts labeled DAY LABORER on the front and back?
BSR,
I'm afraid the bad parts have usurped the good ones in what passes for conservatism, sad.
sportsfan wrote:
Yes, funnily enough I'm reading about the genesis of those tax cuts right now. Hilariously, it was expected that most of the DEBT would be paid off by 2008ish, barring some of the long maturity stuff.
Greenspan and O'Neill wanted to set triggers to shut-down the tax-cuts. Sadly, the puppet president did not want to, 'I refuse to negotiate with myself. That's the way it is.'
This is the Ron Suskind book on O'Neill. It's full of interesting stuff. For example, Iraq is already divided up into different oilfields... and how they will be allocated.
One of the most interesting parts is how the EPA got shafted. With no direction from the WH, they put out tentative statements that emissions would be regulated. This was then reversed by Cheney and his energy group. This news article deftly highlights the 'apparent contradiction'...
The Daily Courier - Google News Archive Search
rosethorn wrote:
What other play to they have except acknowledge that they will be taxed everywhere? Delaying tactic...
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
If by "conservatism" you mean whomever is displayed as representative by the New York Times, et al, then of course. Glenn Beck has no more "usurped" the good conservatives than Keith Olberman has "usurped" the good liberals. Each side has their bogeymen, and react as if they are the mainstream of their ideological oposition.