CalculatedRisk wrote:

Why - I guess they think inflation is hard to get rid of once it starts ...

In fairness - they would be right. But then structural unemployment isn't a piece of cake to banish either - something we'll be revisiting for years and years to come.

How about the FRB writes a check for $10,000 to every person who filed a tax return last year with an AGI of less than $125K?

tg wrote:

Clusterstock | Chart of the Day: Daily chart of an important economic story

Pffft. Just the weather...

Not familiar with this gal, does she have any ties to Golden Slacks? hmmm

In my opinion there is very very little the Fed can do at this point to address unemployment. If ZIRP doesn't work what is left?

TJ and The Bear wrote:

The kind of inflation they fear isn't going to happen, though. Can we get a Maginot Line icon?

Ya they fear wage inflation [price of labor]... asset 'inflation' isn't even inflation is it? It's sound fundamentals. We need a rainbow icon to go with the ...

dryfly wrote:

Ya they fear wage inflation

Lots of people I know have had wages cut 10% to 25%, or now work part time. Some unemployed. How fast will wages increase to get back to 2007 levels plus food and energy inflation? My guess is, not fast enough to continue our current standard of living.

More on Bernanke 

Wikipedia on Yellen shows a largely academic/govt career...no GS links.

josap wrote:

My guess is, not fast enough to continue our current standard of living.

I think that is a given - our SOL is DOA for a long time to come.

josap wrote:

Lots of people I know have had wages cut 10% to 25%, or now work part time.

Me too. Who doesn't? [Hu doesn't?]...

dryfly wrote:

I think that is a given - our SOL is DOA for a long time to come.

It's worse than that. People are using savings and retirement to keep what they have, only when it is gone do they adjust their life style. One major upset at that point and there are no reserves to fall back on.

BTW josap - one of things I try to impress upon companies I work with is that they NOT expect a return to previous consumption levels - they need to be [or get] profitable at these lower levels. It means driving their break even points lower. Maybe much lower. If they can't do that they probably aren't going to make it out the other end.

Blackhalo wrote:

AIG, FRN, FRE?

No, debt burden, and trade deficit. Those are pulling money out of the real economy (via interest payments to people/institutions who don't spend the money, just reinvest it, and trade dollars recycled into govt. debt leading to more interest payments). Until we write down a bunch of debt that can't be paid anyway, and get the trade deficit under control, any fiscal stimulus is just going to bleed back out. And employment/wages are going to want to fall because they are fighting for disappearing dollars.

I'd say got , but it gets old to watch after a while.

Edit: the only other way to inject money into the real economy is via loan growth. But both consumer and business loans are cliff diving. All Banks | Home

Traffic deaths at lowest level since '54 | detnews.com | The Detroit News

I'm with CR on this one. Yellen's writings and logic have been crystal clear over the last few years. Commentators speak of unemployment as a lagging indicator, but at some point accumulating job losses, wage cuts, and reductions in hours must become a leading indicator.

Yellen's last speech could be summarized as:
• attentive to inflation
• low rates / loose rates are needed now
• would resume MBS purchasing if the need arose
FRBSF: The FRBSF Speaks (Index)

Seems like everything necessary to securing the position was mentioned. Does anyone know what advantages Vice Chairwoman would have other than salary?

Smile Traffic deaths at lowest level since '54 | detnews.com | The Detroit News

Given that nobody can afford gas, this isn't a shocker.

sdtfs wrote:

Heck, maybe it's already at that point.

That point was passed a ways back.

budget news coming out of Seattle and Washington State, layoffs to be executed in June
these are the "tough budgets" that don't actually close the gap this year
I find it is taking roughly 3 years for governments to close fiscal gaps. The first year they don't react at all, the second year they force some things they wanted and do some cuts but not enough, the third year they will try but find their tax revenues decline along with their spending

AIG, FRN, FRE?

FRN??? That may be a fraudian slip to some, FRN for FNM, but referring to Federal Reserve Notes as an arterial wound is the full misean!

C

Hey Counterpointer
How similar do you feel Greece 2010 is to Thailand 1997
I'm not asking about what your expectations are for the future, but just in a loose sense of how they qualitatively fit within their economic subset

Does Lakshman Achuthan / ECRI / Mork from Ork / other one-off alias(es) hang around here anymore
I bet he thinks I'm some kind of demi-god at this point

Here's how a finance minister rattles his saber:

FT.com / UK - Why Europe's monetary union faces its biggest crisis

Para 6 : Veiled threat; the deal to bring the DM into the Euro, remember it, do not renege. Gentle reiteration last para. Remain calm, you will be supervised, you will integrate, you will join the hive. Resistance will be really fkn expensive, you can't afford it, and you've had the last roll of the dice.

C

kcoop wrote:

Maybe Broward's right, and it's just a question of latency.

The memes lead behavior, I've often seen lead times of one to two years. Delphi programming language. Memes pronounced it dead over two years before the Delphi programming community acknowledged it. I created a measure which I call "diffraction" to measure ability to generate side conversation and engagement. You can see that the pope's death had a lot of diffraction but SARS virus had virtually none. Despite the media hype, the public thought as little as possible about SARs.

http://www.realmeme.com/roller/page/realmeme?entry=meme_theory#Diffraction

I mean, dang, the fricking bubble actually broke in late 2005 but even the stock market didn't see it for six months, and general public had no clue until a year later when subprime blew out.

NOBODY wants to know about the sovereign debt bubble.

Counterpointer wrote:

It's not the elephant in the room. It IS the room.

My, my, what an interesting view. Just how much do you pay for a room with a view like this? Oh.

Uh, where is the exit?

CR posted.

She was way ahead of most other Fed members in recognizing the housing bubble, and she is apparently well respected by other Fed members.

So that's only one strike against her so far...

I'm mainly interested in one factor: her record on transparency and conflicts of interest. I think if I were a Fed Reserve Bank president I'd have a leg up in predicting how sound the member banks were financially and how their condition would impact bubbles. I'd probably have inside knowledge of where interest rates were headed and which banks would get back-door bailouts.

Obama supposedly offered some Republicans cabinet positions. In that spirit, why not a labor leader for Fed Governor. Remember the (absurd) dual mandate: if bankers are presumably better at understanding how to fight inflation then I can presume a labor leader is better at dealing with unemployment.

Get one of the meters with a Hi Vol function, takes off the top of the fear bandwidth, pumps up the base primals...

YouTube - Iggy Pop and The Stooges - Gimme Danger (High Quality)

C

Schools Across U.S. Grapple With Closures : NPR

I don't understand something. In my state declining enrollments are reported and I see this appears to be the case in some suburban and urban places too.

What gives? Are people home schooling their children more, is there a migration of immigrants or is this a demographic not widely reported of a population decline of school-aged children?

Karl Block Caps is reporting this in some detail, as quotes the examiner's report that colorable claims of breach of fiduciary duty exist against Fuld, O'Meara, Callan and Lowitt, and of professional malpractice against Ernst and Young.

Yves, Jesse and TBI are running the Timmaay connection. ZH and Alphaville are all over the Repo 105 innards. Gee, roundtripping through a Yerp affiliate to get a true sale attestation on a transaction denied such status in the US.

Hey, sounds like ... hss ... what the ... hsss ... it is, it's fuses burning.

C

I hope you catch this KK. The 70s are a perfect example of how that can and does happen. Wages don't keep up in hyperinflation, businesses cut jobs to make up for the inflation, another sort of 'death spiral'. FWIW, I think we are seeing deflation in sectors of consumer discretionary and inflation in stuff we need. That will continue to be the story I think for awhile. But what the hell do I know!

What's Dawg's quip on this - something like price deflation in more inelastic supply, price inflation in more inelastic demand?

Later all

C

EvilHenryPaulson - How similar do you feel Greece 2010 is to Thailand 1997

I'm sure I'm missing something, but I was under the impression that the Baht was the weak link to other currencies in Asia, like the Sterling fell becuase the Italian Lira was defended by the Sterling in what they called the "snake". It made Soros his name and money.

I think Greece is different in that it is the early warning sign, like a surfer with a bleeding cut staying in the water.

I'll start to worry when I see the tiger sharks starting to nibble at things.
But, it does not take long until they show up.

Note to self, is understood here, tiger sharks remind most people of "Seeking Nemo".

With the caveat that I view the Federal Reserve Note, off-balance-sheet accounting, synthetic derivatives, securitization of quasi-publicly-backed loans, FDIC insurance, re-insurance, and corporate BK are all elaborate frauds/ponzi schemes subject to collapse, some of which even most of the participants are in denial about and some of which serve some useful functions.

KK, I wouldn't do that. This time and this great recession is a wholly different beast than anyone alive has seen. Forecasts and understanding for people like me who are merely observers is folly since I don't fully understand it all.

Its the uncertainty of so many complex and interdependent factors which is worrisome.

I'm not wishing for either. The 70s were not kind to me.

Isn't saying she will be or is more focused on unemployment just like saying she is focused on the tide coming in. I mean what can she do about i?. Isn't the congress the president and probably the Supreme Court more focused on unemployment and not only have we not seen any effective action but we have not even heard of any bright ideas. Isn't it more politic to focus on something you can't do anything about as no one can accuse you of failing or being inapt. Thank you

josap wrote:

dryfly wrote:

Ya they fear wage inflation

Lots of people I know have had wages cut 10% to 25%, or now work part time. Some unemployed. How fast will wages increase to get back to 2007 levels plus food and energy inflation? My guess is, not fast enough to continue our current standard of living.

SD: To be competitive to the Chinese, and thus, to address the unemployment reality, wages must drop by 50%. The remaining difference in labor cost will be offset by time and transportation cost differentials.

Someday, when a lightbulb goes on in DC, there may be a single worthwhile tariff applied to import goods, that being a the failure by the foreign goods mfrs to equal the OSHA standards in the USA. This is not about the number of angels on pinheads; it's about gross and avoidable ecological damage, as we all live on this one planet Earth.

Rising wages? Do not drink the bong water. The policy goal must be for US labor to stand competitive to the world's largest exporters.

The delusion that the US is special, somehow, is a joke from the 20th Century. Thx for the laugh.

nincompoop - Isn't it more politic to focus on something you can't do anything about as no one can accuse you of failing or being inapt.

We have politicians for that, like the Supreme Court the FED is "ideally" separated from that. Only a half answer.

Where did all the time go.. once again,

If we have politicans for that why is CR indicating that it is an important factor in her selection. Thank you.

nanoo,

From what I see in my area:

Decline in school enrollment is equal to the decline in Latinos here. I also see less Indians. My daughter, when in elem school here, had over 50 languages spoken. Kids would be in a village somewhere one week, The next week they would be sitting at a desk next to her. A lot of that is no longer happening

ahhh, thank you Nova. So immigrants are either staying put somewhere else or migrating out of the country?

Kauai_Kahuna wrote:

While inflation is a horrible monster that must be slain on sight and guarded against, I just don't see it being really possible with the high unemployment, wage cuts, and de-leveraging that has too happen, but which is occurring extremely slowly as extend and pretend are the order of the day.

IMO, we're experiencing massive inflation in the basic consumables. Energy and Food.

In addition to actual dollar number increases for the two, labor income to individuals is dropping across the board.

Kauai_Kahuna wrote:

But money supply has exploded, supply of existing goods/services has not decreased. But there is no velocity to the money. It is all going into a sink hole / black hole and not entering the economy. And there is a lot more to disappear in losses not yet entering the books.

You can print a TARP to cover the hole, but the printed "money" (usually credit, not C-notes) still exists. If productivity increases or foreclosures are delayed and unemployment benefits extended with tax money or deficit spending the average consumer doesn't notice the effects for a long time. The printed "wealth" trickles down in cash for your clunker, limits on credit card interest, food stamps, great philanthropy from the savvy bankers.

It's a trick.

If the money supply is held constant and credit is issued only at market rates by private entities, the only way to realize net economic growth is for prices to fall relative to goods. Then wage earners and savers can realize some of the productivity gains. This is the productive "deflation". Rents and profits approach zero; innovators still command a premium by gaining market share.

Wages may still deflate faster than purchasing power, but the wage-earner can at least rely on knowing the size of her wage relative to a fixed money supply. One problem is that people have been conditioned to at least 2 millenia of seignorage (at the point of a sword) so they expect inflation to always cheat them. They resist nominal wage decreases (also for psychological reasons) even when corporate owners threaten to flee and sell the factory for scrap. They also expect real estate to go up as their house ages.

Union leaders and tea-partiers know about how much wealth was just transferred by TARP, TALF and the other backdoor and front-door bailouts, and have a pretty good idea who got it. (Fuld or wife will not be getting a pardon after moving to Switzerland, at least until 1/19/12)

The Fed claims its independence from politics is a good thing. Pure bullshit.

Inflation is hardest on the poor. They don't have the financial resources to protect themselves from the effect. They can't put 10% of their assets in gold, speculate in PMs, short long term treasuries, or otherwise speculate on rising prices. None of this while, their meager earning decline in value.

YLSP wrote:

someone has decided to block my access to public hearings...

What, you can't get to C-Span? You sure you don't have your on too tight?

Brad: [singing] Dammit, Janet, I love you.

...as if any individual can fix our rocky horror financial show?

Juvenal Delinquent wrote:

...as if any individual can fix our rocky horror financial show?

See what's on the slab. And he's wrapped in gold!

So, yes, no? Everyone else unable to access most of the US Congress hearings?

Hasn't loaded after 2 minutes.

Remember, they will be scrutinized for every dime they spend, so expect an inferior website.

All three C-Span channels are broadcasting here in Chicago. One looks like congressional testimony. I can't listen to any of it.

yogi:
Okay. That's my source for Congressional hearings. They normally will load after 10 seconds, so I guess its a major glitch at the provider (I don't know tell who that is).

Found an article you might like.
Populist Economy can -thrive- with Time Based Currency
I think this article predates Internet advances, but I'm guessing it is similar to your idea...

yogi:
They do broadcast live, but its my experience that everything is on demand. Some Committees still have Real-Media (Senate Finance) or a stream to a .WMV (House Financial).

I typically will be stream-recording 3 hearings per night.

The one thing that pissed me off is that somehow the Senate Banking Committee (Dodd) lost their archive of the Paulson-Bernanke TARP public hearing. Even though some hearings prior to that were available and some hearings directly after are available. The only transcript I've found was released by a Senator, and its a preliminary transcript...

Anyone follow the Dodd-Corker newsconferences on Financial Reform?
I don't get what Health Care has to do with Financial Reform.
I'm listening to Corker's presser... I can't figure out whats going on.
Corker says they got to the 5 yard line.

Our elected officials tend to fumble when they get into the financial red zone usually...

YLSP wrote:

the US Congress hearings

Although the panel calls it "testimony", I don't know what legal effect it has.

"Lying to Congress"

TITLE 18 > PART I > CHAPTER 47 > § 1001
§ 1001.
...
(c) With respect to any matter within the jurisdiction of the legislative branch, subsection (a) shall apply only to—
...

(2) any investigation or review, conducted pursuant to the authority of any committee, subcommittee, commission or office of the Congress, consistent with applicable rules of the House or Senate.

I guess it depends on whether a panel of non-Congressmen is considered a "commission or office".
"Testimony" in the US generally implies a public record of some sort, and an open "court".

I don't understand why Republicans are against consumer protection.
Oh, he's blaming the borrowers for borrowing money they never should've.
Geeb's he's so dramatic... "I'm going to do this again... dust myself off... wake up... and then continue to work as the people in Tennessee want me to."

QA:
Q1: Will Dodd push this through on a partisan basis and dare R's to vote against it?
A1: He sincerely wants a bipartisan bill, he feels under pressure to pass a bill before reconciliation hits the Senate floor.
Follow: Is that from the White House?
A: I know the elephant in the room is reconciliation and trying to get a bill out prior to that. I think he is a victim of health care policy.

Q2: What was left on those 5 yards?
A2: Issues related to risk-retention. Dodd draft had some areas of risk-retention, the House passed risk-retention issue... details. Headline this morning about credit starting to perculate again. We have to make sure we don't have the unintended consequence of shutting down securitization, especially in commercial market. If you're going to retain risk, maybe you don't if you are writing a mortgage on a 15% downpayment home. Maybe you write mortgages that happened in Canada and other places, where their home ownership rate is equal to ours. We were working on judicial issues.

The big piece not ready is deriviatives... with Judd Gregg and Jack Reed... very complex, something we need to get right. There were some member issues coming up. Whenever a vehicle is moving... I'll mention one... proxy access was going to be an issue. Senator Schumer, we've actually agreed to look at governance issues he looked at. On proxy access... in fairness that is a line in the sand. That concerns us about activist groups getting invovled. Let me say this, no roadblocks. Not a single issue yet, that we have not worked through. I called Tim Geithner this morning, and thanked him for the way Treasury worked with us to give us technical assistance. I worked with him yesterday at 4:30. They have been tremendous partners.

Rob Dawg,
Hey, since when did it get bumped up to 17% of the economy? I always thought it was 16%... but then they also will say "1/6th" (I guess that is close enough).

Rob Dawg wrote:

Health care is an even bigger slice of the economy than is finance.

I don't think so...

From 1990 to 2006, the GDP share of the financial sector in the broad sense increased in the United States from 23% to 31%

How might the current financial crisis shape financial sector regulation and structure?

Q3: 18 months after Lehman...
A3: I think we'll get here, this is an important bill. 4 (thing)s. a) Systemic council is an important piece. b) Knowing you have an orderly liquidation of large companies is important. Both parties are united behind it. If you are a large company and fail, and don't go through bankruptcy. You'll go through a painful liquidation. c) Derivatives, think about derivatives. To have a regime that causes people to put collateral against... think about AIG if we had a regime against derivatives. I'm energized to work with Dodd and Shelby to get a bill, I think we'll get there but it's going to be far messier. When you are willing to grind out every issue, grind-it-out... that's when you get a good legislation.

Q4: Derivatives, if I understand you... the CRA... some people have said the CRA led to policies. FDIC, and OCC said that subprime lending led to defaults...
A4: I didn't say anything about CRA... no... no no no... what I'm saying is, and I'll be more eloquent... if you look at what's happened. We had bad mortgages, easy credit, low rates... I was in real estate, whenever you have low rates real estate inverses, and a bunch of instituttions overleveraged, 30:1 and 40:1... and then you could multiple that notionally with derivatives. At the bottom of the pyramid was mortgages that were underwritten poorly. I'm not sure we know enough to do the right things on rating. We have a painful clause for rating agencies, the House wrote them out of the code; I'm not opposed to that I might add... on the credit-rating side we had a big liability burden placed on the credit rating agencies...

Q5: Derivatives, any thing... collateral or standards.
A5: Jack Reed and Judd Gregg... Dodd assigned teams to work together, and he assigned derivatives to Gregg and Reed. The issue kept them from coming to closure, has been how much end user... support. Let me say this... I give Dodd some slack, because he knows it'll take a couple weeks to resolve differences, and I think he feels he needs to move ahead. I thought it would've been best to add that in later as an amendment.

yesterday we heard about the inflation in china.

South Korea apparently wants a little of that action.

South Korea may face accelerating inflation after Governor Lee Seong Tae left interest rates unchanged for a 13th month under political pressure, even as his economy is forecast to be one of the fastest-growing in Asia.

And of course Japan is jealous 

Just two weeks back, Japan's outspoken banking minister Shizuka Kamei pushed for the BOJ to directly underwrite public debt. "I suggest the BOJ directly underwrite government bonds to help the government come up with financial resources," he said.

It's a move 'the BOJ is strongly opposed to for fear of triggering runaway inflation in the long term.' according to Reuters.

And India and England are both worried about their rising inflation. Seems to be a trend. Yellen will have plenty of help fighting the hawks.

The plan is clearly to inflate now and 'hope' for the best later.

If you don't watch broadcast TV you will never hear about the media sponsored teabaggers.

Q6: On consumer protection... (no mic back there)
A6: Well the talks did break off. Oh, where are we in discussions. BTW, I think Dodd's consumer title will be very much shaped by our discussion. My guess is, he veered a hair left to make sure... but hopefully not. Where it was left, house to Fed, appointed by President and approved. One of the things about the Fed... we're still almost there... the thing about the Fed. If you remember the President said, he wanted an independent source of funding. The way the Fed works, the Fed gives the surplus back to Treasury. That was a way of solving that problem, the CFPA would have an independent source of funding. I know there was negative reaction, being housed at the Fed. It was housed at he Fed but didn't report to the Chairman. Here's where its been, conservative Republicans have agreed to broad-scope-rulemaking. We're talking about rule-making where shadow indusrtry has to live by th esame rules. If I'm a consumer person, I think that is breaking ground.

Where R's have drawn the line. We do not want consumer involved in enforcement. If consumer issues exist, we want the OCC or Fed or FTC to implement. We don't want rule-making and enforcement combined. There was a veto process, we made the first real offer on consumer. There's a process through which rules would be made, its consultive. There is a veto process if safety/soundness or systemic risk is created. We offered that in the beginning. Shelby, Gregg, McConnell, Crapo were working to make it work for all of us. We were down to issues I promise, never have you dreamed of. We were 20 rungs down in Treasury, working through if there's a conflict and a judgement, how does that all work out. it got down to judicial issues... that is the fine-tuning we had gotten to on consumer. The major concepts, absolutely agreed to.

Q7: What about independent (mic out)... conducting compliance exams... that's the key issue...
A7: Yes . Yes. They had to go in, a joint examination, which is always which we said. Prudential and consumer together. Conducted at the regulatory level. It was a huge win. What we are concerned about, is the enforcement piece. I think we reached eached others accomodations. We accomodated their issues, where we had to ensure, was that enforcement wouldn't be part of this enityt.

Q8: Supervision and regulation
A8: To come clean. I think the rearranging of deck chairs is one of the silliest things . Years ago, you had a company in trouble... they changed their org chart. They still made lousy widgets. Nothing changed, still really lousy widgets. That's what this whole reorganization is about to me. OTS going into OCC, that makes sense. Everything else is moving deck chairs to act like you've done something. We need to make sure regulatory agencies do the things they're supposed to do. I shouldn't say this, but I think its been silly. At the end of the day, nothing changes much. But... a lot will change, as it relates to the standards. The Fed is giong to have its wings clipped, it'll be still supervising. I know the way the bill sits, it'll supervise the large entitites, OCC the middle size, the FDIC... debate is if the Fed will do the smaller institutions... all sorts of lobbying. The Fed board members, like their marble buildings and statues... I don't see any reason to change it to be candid.

Q9: Payday lenders, are they included?
A9: They are included. Yes. The scope involves everyone in financial
Follow: Do they require a charter?
Follow-A: They all have state charters like state... the FTC has an arcane rule-making ability... this creates a rule-making... across the FTC. One of the things many of you are missing. Credit unions, indybanks... they like to see a level playing field. Everyone focussed on the consumer issue on a backwards way. Those people have to live by standards, they want to make sure everyone works.

Federal pre-emption will stay in place. No usury rate issues... the fact is... this is a major step forward. Republicans want to make sure enforcement is at the prudential regulator, get consumer out of bounds, there is a veto process.

Q10: Why reconciliation, why that in particular.
A10: Starting Monday, there is 2 weeks left.
Q: Why does that involve?
A: Should the House pass it, reconciliation would end up the last few days before recess. I think Dodd feels pressure to get it out of committee before that process.

Q11: The bill, that Dodd puts out will be left, how so? Dear Goodness didn't he just spend 30 minutes explaining that!
A11: Still working through issues, and we hit the pause button. Even some of the things working that... will not be in. We'll continue to work, but the bill will be like... covering this press conference, writing column... you get halfway through and stop. It'll be a better product than offered in December, and we'll continue... not going to effect my attitude. We'll see if we get a good bill.

(trying to end it but reporter got in a last question to bring him back)

Q12: Was consumer the cause of th ebreakdown?
A12: No, there was no breakdown. We got to the 5 yardline and the lights went out. I think both parties want to see a good financial reform bill. If we can't do this in a bipartisan way, we can't do anything, anymore in the United States Senate.

Yogi hates on cash like it is going to kill his mother.

No cash, no freedom.

Cash is the only check on financial power.

Without cash all that remains is to hook you up to banker survaillance and taxation software and you can never escape THE SYSTEM.

Sweet, I found the C-SPAN link to the missing hearing I've been looking for; for like 6 months... hooray!

1 currency now -yogi wrote:

we in the concrete jungle

Don't you live in Battery Park?

They have tour buses, cops on horses, and stroller moms all over down there. It is like a park with geeks watching every door. Hardly the concrete jungle. I like you Yogi but your shilling for a cashless society is obvious, odious, and old.

U.S. Feb. retail sales show broad-based gains

U.S. Dec., Jan. sales revised lower

U.S. retail sales up 3.9% compared with year ago

U.S. Feb. retail sales ex-autos up 0.8%

U.S. Feb. retail sales rise 0.3% vs. 0.0% expected

Retail sales: Actual 0.3%, consensus -0.2%, prior 0.1% (revised from 0.5%)
Retail sales ex-auto: Actual 0.8%, consensus 0.1%, prior 0.5% (revised from 0.6%)

Briefing.com: Bond Market Update

MTA???? You got a discount from the driver, I take it?

A job?

Hey Yogi,

How's it feel to be utterly out of touch with things, in a King George I supermarket scanner sort of fashion?

How to tell if it's currency, a continuing series of notes on currency:

Rule 1) Permanence
Rule 1a) If your dog eats it, and poops it out, it looks the same.

See I was confused you used that word cash. Cash is very traceable and easy legally to confiscate these days. Now I don't know for sure, but if a helicopter can fly over you and count your cash, track radiation....not a far stretch to believe they have gold choppers flying around looking for hordes of bars and coins either. Better double wrap in just to be sure.

What The Lehman Report Proves: Financial Insolvency - The Market Ticker

The conclusions I am forced to reach, after much reflection and sleeping on this article overnight, are not pretty.

They compel me to advise that, in my opinion, the market is now trading both technically and on a fundamental basis, exactly as the Nasdaq was in 1999.

I recognize this is a serious charge and has implications that are most unpleasant, in that it implies a probable detonation ahead at some time in the next year - one that will not only destroy all of the gains made since March of last year but go beyond that - indeed, perhaps as far as the banner on The Market Ticker has for the major indices.

Thanks for the advice. That is damn good advice. You should bottle it.

I like government issue cash too (for the ladies) but realize it has a short shelf life.

I know you are married Von, but pay with a roll instead of a card and notice the change. People with cards are frequently broke or borrowing.

OP-ED CONTRIBUTOR; A New Chapter for Bankruptcy - NY Times

THE Obama administration introduced a plan this week to encourage defaulting homeowners to sell their houses at a loss, the latest in a long line of reform packages promising to break the logjam of underwater mortgages. But without major changes to the bankruptcy system, such measures won’t aid the American families torn apart by the economic upheavals of the last two years.
To date, our bankruptcy courts have done little to help the millions of people swimming in debt. Almost 5 percent of mortgage loans are now in foreclosure, an increase of more than 85 percent since the beginning of 2008, and more than 10 percent of credit card accounts are delinquent. Yet bankruptcy filings for the first two months of this year are only 1.5 times what they were two years ago. And even after that increase, current filing levels are far below those in the first half of this decade. (More)

Juvenal Delinquent wrote:

...is this the 7th crash course Karl has taken, or is it #8?

I'll need to remove my and see....

Exactly why they changed the BK laws in 2005 making it more difficult for the average fool to file BK but making CDS bets due and payable prior to BK court. Of course that would mean this entire crash was a well planned set up...and we know that couldn't be the case because after all - their just doing God's work.

I know we have an fairly large contingent of lawyer or wannabe lawyers in the commentariat, so:

Actual Court Transcripts

ATTORNEY: Are you sexually active?

WITNESS: No, I just lie there.

ATTORNEY: This myasthenia gravis, does it affect your memory at all?

WITNESS: Yes..

ATTORNEY: And in what ways does it affect your memory?

WITNESS: I forget.

ATTORNEY: You forget? Can you give us an example of something you forgot?

ATTORNEY: Do you know if your daughter has ever been involved in voodoo?

WITNESS: We both do.

ATTORNEY: Voodoo?

WITNESS: We do.

ATTORNEY: You do?

WITNESS: Yes, voodoo.

ATTORNEY: Now doctor, isn't it true that when a person dies in his sleep, he

doesn't know about it until the next morning?

WITNESS: Did you actually pass the bar exam?

ATTORNEY: The youngest son, the twenty-year-old, how old is he?

WITNESS: He's twenty, much like your IQ.

ATTORNEY: Were you present when your picture was taken?

WITNESS: Are you shitting me?

ATTORNEY: So the date of conception (of the baby) was August 8th?

WITNESS: Yes.

ATTORNEY: And what were you doing at that time?

WITNESS: getting laid

ATTORNEY: She had three children, right?

WITNESS: Yes.

ATTORNEY: How many were boys?

WITNESS: None.

ATTORNEY: Were there any girls?

WITNESS: Your Honor, I think I need a different attorney. Can I get a new

attorney?

ATTORNEY: How was your first marriage terminated?

WITNESS: By death.

ATTORNEY: And by whose death was it terminated?

WITNESS: Take a guess.

ATTORNEY: Can you describe the individual?

WITNESS: He was about medium height and had a beard.

ATTORNEY: Was this a male or a female?

WITNESS: Unless the Circus was in town I'm going with male.

ATTORNEY: Is your appearance here this morning pursuant to a deposition

notice which I sent to your attorney?

WITNESS: No, this is how I dress when I go to work.

ATTORNEY: Doctor, how many of your autopsies have you performed on dead

people?

WITNESS: All of them... The live ones put up too much of a fight.

ATTORNEY: ALL your responses MUST be oral, OK? What school did you go to?

WITNESS: Oral.

ATTORNEY: Do you recall the time that you examined the body?

WITNESS: The autopsy started around 8:30 p.m.

ATTORNEY: And Mr. Denton was dead at the time?

WITNESS: If not, he was by the time I finished..

ATTORNEY: Are you qualified to give a urine sample?

WITNESS: Are you qualified to ask that question?

And the best for last:

ATTORNEY: Doctor, before you performed the autopsy, did you check for a

pulse?

WITNESS: No.

ATTORNEY: Did you check for blood pressure?

WITNESS: No.

ATTORNEY: Did you check for breathing?

WITNESS: No.

ATTORNEY: So, then it is possible that the patient was alive when you began

the autopsy?

WITNESS: No.

ATTORNEY: How can you be so sure, Doctor?

WITNESS: Because his brain was sitting on my desk in a jar

ATTORNEY: I see, but could the patient have still been alive, nevertheless?

WITNESS: Yes, it is possible that he could have been alive and practicing

law.

I figure if the white man's paradise comes crashing down, my family and I will go back to walking the spirit road. Wife and I have started our archery practice again. Guns are nice, until the bullets run out, arrows are simple. Get some dogs, pare down what you need to what fits on your back...and you are free. You own nothing, you are not a target, and it doesn't own you. Have to be a hunter though. If you got farmer genes....god help you in the new world. Slings are nice too.

I have farmer genes and like vegetables. Not worried. Also have monster genes for protection.

I said if things go to hell, mhdoc... I don't expect long life for anyone except the lucky. There will be communities that try to weather the storm through leadership...these experiments will rise and fall. But my wife has some medical skill, and I have purchased a few books on midwifery and the practice of general medicine.

Just remember to have enough trusted people around to work in shifts.

And the first time someone in the family has a little problem with their appendix?

that is what the pistol is for.