Q4 2009: Mortgage Equity Withdrawal Strongly Negative
Submitted by
CalculatedRisk on Thu, 03/11/2010 - 11:35am (281 comments)
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Only in America is paying down debt a negative.
The Home ATM is officially out of service!
Thank you for your patronage - please try again next decade.
I think you may underestimate the power of FedLube™.
Is this good news? Can't withdraw negative dollars.
CR wrote:
I think ghostface would be happy to explain what's behind door #3.
Always liked that 'home ATM' visual. Just need to get a PIN I can remember.
"A new law with a 15-year sentence for default"
Broward.....as always, I recommend the DUBAI OPTION.
In other words, until you pay, you will not see the light of day.....
Hear that hissing sound? That's the sound of money escaping the economy.
The sound of men working on the chain gang will come later.
I am shocked I tell you just shocked
O/T, and apologies if anyone posted this earlier and I hadn't seen it:
TaxProf Blog: Tax Foundation: 52 Million (36%) of Tax Returns Pay Zero Income Tax
While the trend has been decidedly up over the past two decades, the jump from last year to this year is substantial. I wonder how much of that is due to the recesssion (people making less money and therefore dropping below the tax threshold) and how much of that is first-time homebuyer credits in excess of income tax liability.
Income growth? What's that?
Look at the area under the curve below zero. Subtract backwards the preceding area above and we are back to 2007 levels. Only another 5 years to go provided no overshoot.
CR: any significant increase in consumer spending will come from income growth or a lower saving rate, not borrowing."
Well, I'm not seeing any income growth. Guess it will be savings once everyone stops paying the mortgage.
MLM wrote:
Why wait 'till later?
YouTube - Sam Cooke Chain Gang
josap wrote:
Shhh! No peeking behind door #3!
fudge_hend wrote:
Only in America is paying down debt a negative.
In America, GDP depends on highly-leveraged bets that rely on large negative numbers to produce positive ones. It's like an anti-economy...
cara's question from the last occurred to me, too. Is there a breakout available?
"What percentage of the reduced mortgage debt has been paid down and what percentage has been forgiven?"
For that matter, what precentage of HELOCs are being paid down, what forgiven?
Mook wrote:
No it's not.
There's no difference between a HELOC and "not paying the mortgage".
Both give you $$$ you can take to BestBuy and exchange for a huge television.
I wish that people would quit referencing Tax Foundation data. A right wing propaganda outlet.
No doubt, I was talking to my brother in law earlier in the day, he and his significant other ( both out of work, not married 2 kids ) went to do their taxes. Grand total for a return $11,989 for a return.
I am considering divorcing the wife if this is the kind of return one gets for not being married.
Eric wrote:
Assuming you have income to not pay the mortgage with.
Which is worse - bankers or terrorists wrote:
"A new law with a 15-year sentence for default"
A mortgage?
Are realtors still dispensing that sage advice that I heard in 2003 to "buy the biggest house you can afford." Their commission-based rationale for this was transparent, obviously. But it also led to deeper MEW. I guess there are consequences to all memes, real estate and otherwise.
steelhead wrote:
I'm sorry, do you have some contention over the data presented? Some evidence, or even reason to believe, that it is exaggerated or incorrect? Would you prefer it was published by DailyKos?
Like this one Spool
YouTube - Suzanne Researched This Commercial
mp wrote:
That's what happens when you cancel your health insurance, and deal with it one emergency at a time.
Eric wrote:
Those $$$ often seem to be tax free, too. What a deal.
Chain Gang was okay, but Bring It On Home to Me was better with Lou Rawls doing backup vocals:
YouTube - Sam Cooke - Bring It On Home To Me
Inverted Hammer of Thor wrote:
Well DUH! Of course he would; "Liburels" consider it "The Blog of Record"......
Whats wrong steelhead would you prefer we use the Democratic underground site as a solid base for info. Left wing nut.
mp wrote:
That's something that happens in Asia.
I'd say the male in that commercial was perfectly cast, and leave it at that.
OT : from my ex-neck of the woods, the Aloha state :
1 in 6 in Hawaii lacking full-time work | honoluluadvertiser.com | The Honolulu Advertiser
Looks like the market will open at 0.
Imagine....a world without marginalization.
josap wrote:
I'd like it to close at 0 (or close to it), before my puts expire!
It would be interesting to take a look at a pie chart of where MEW was spent.
--Automobiles / RVs / Boats / Motorcycles
--Vacations / Travel / Hospitality
--College Tuition
--Housing via investment properties and condos
--Consumer goods (electronics vs. clothing vs. food etc.)
--Home improvements
This would explain greatly why certain industries have been harder hit over the past 1-2 years.
Some have fallen off a cliff, and many will never return in our lifetimes. Yet there is no recognition of this by our banks nor politicians. All are being propped up on life support, waiting for the good times to return. Fools.
Eric wrote:
burnside wrote:
If top 4 banks start writing down their home equity lines and loans that are secondary liens, as Barney Frank's letter asked for, then MEW will fall even faster/stronger. Will go hand in hand with principal forgiveness, I suppose.
Josap, I have been in the Markets for years now, late 80's before the crash, and I must say, The Market action as of late has me scared shitless, glad I am out. There just is no movement, how it stays up is beyond comprehension. And I think today is a low volume record of sorts.
So not much hope in consumer spending except for inflation, then.
OT
Day 1 of the in town doomstead begins today, meeting with my architect. 14,000 gallon rainwater/irrigation capture, 18 inch thick walled hacienda with soffit mounted rolling shutters, integrated solar tiles & DC lighting, a passive evaporative cooling tower for the courtyard, vertical gardens on southern walls. On the border of LEED platinum without even tweaking the layout.
HCN: waht's the deal with HCN on Firefox? I can't stay logged in for more than 20 minutes at a time.
Remember: in a normal world (as CR noted) net equity withdrawal should be negative, as people pay down principal. So "zero" isn't even the right baseline. Shift the "zero line" to, say, (-2%) and take a good look at what that does to the relative areas over and under the line.
Five years is wildly optimistic, IMO.
Inverted Hammer of Thor wrote:
I'd guess the recession plays a big factor. Their time series does not have many jumps, except in 1975, which was a recession year.
josap wrote:
Nah, just wishing for a
. My puts have about as much value as owning WAMU common stock now. But WAMU doesn't expire in 3 months.
Hey CR - looking at that chart isn't kind of hard to take the blue bars away until the red line goes above zero? I mean it looks like you can have blue bars with the red line above zero but looks like when the red lines are below zero you pretty much always have blue bars.
Yes/No?
Comrade Alexei Mikhailovich wrote:
Will the city let you do that? or do you have a nice patch of dirt outside of town?
ZH appears to be down.
Geithner finally nailed them. Sad....
mp wrote:
What bankers get.
dryfly wrote:
Blue bars indicate recession.
No one has decided on the color for double inverse depression yet.
Gavshire Hathaway wrote:
CR did a bit on the autos portion in a round about way I think, looked at percent of autos purchased in cash. Number was quite high in CA.
I would be interested in this as well, I know anecdotal stories of many boomers giving kids cash to buy houses, not sure the source of the money in all cases but some were cash out refis.
Eric wrote:
Music for your theta: YouTube - Rolling Stones - Miss You
SPOOL wrote:
It's Hawaii - why would anyone want to work? That's supposed to be done in places like Peoria.
"So any significant increase in consumer spending will come from income growth or a lower saving rate, not borrowing."
How about negative borrowing - i.e. not paying your debts?
Easily 25B a quarter is "extracted" from housing via defaulted mortgages.
Whiskey wrote:
Whiskey, that's what I was thinking. There are also two significant increases back to back, in what appear to be the years 2001-2002, and 2002-2003. So the recession may account for almost all of it. It's interesting to note, however, that the numbers don't ever come back down after 2001, in fact, they just keep increasing.
sm_landlord wrote:
You're going to be on DOUBLE SECRET DEPRESSION!!!
dryfly wrote:
Any excuse to stay in out of the weather, winter or summer.
dryfly wrote:
There's a Greece-Germany analogy there.....
Eric wrote:
There's no difference between a HELOC and "not paying the mortgage".
Agreed. That is what is keeping consumer spending going, at least 25B a quarter, probably more when unpaid second liens are factored in.
ghostfaceinvestah wrote:
That is what is keeping consumer spending going, at least 25B a quarter, probably more when unpaid second liens are factored in.
Extend and pretend, then pretend to extend...
Mook wrote:
Tells me we haven't been under the line for the past quarter of a century.
I don't see why we can't get all this stuff fixed by July.
I disagree in as much as government borrowing is being funneled into the consumption chain.
It's borrowing, just not by the consumer.
Which is worse - bankers or terrorists wrote:
No kidding. I'd be pissed if I was German - unless I could figure out a way to get transfered to Greece. Then it's 'Party On - Hans!'
ac wrote:
But the consumer is the one that will pay the debt, or be in the boat when the gov defaults, sinking us anyway.
sportsfan wrote:
Aka the start of the election season?
Comrade Alexei Mikhailovich wrote:
very nice
ac wrote:
I agree - the transfer mechanism isn't as effective - monetary constipation - but if that ever gets worked out don't stand behind them.
dryfly wrote:
Oh, I think Greece can kiss a bit of its sovreignity goodbye soon....you not sure how yet.
Eric wrote:
Look a the upside, in absolute terms then the theta hit is practically nothing!
This is so wrong:
Swiss Data Theft Hits 24,000 HSBC Clients - WSJ.com
So basically, an employee stole info on 24,000 accounts and attempted to sell it to several governments.
Let me get this straight. You now have to worry about data theft because a government might see the information?
Rob Dawg wrote:
I guess I'm just getting more sarcastic as the years pile on.
sm_landlord wrote:
I think if you're a tax cheat, you just have to worry, period.
Edit: Unless you have a big forehead. There's an exemption for those guys.
last hour MOONSHOT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!11111111!
ac wrote:
True, that is consistent with the net negative flows of entitlement spending vs taxes - the government is doling out more in UE, welfare, etc then it is taking in in taxes.
Comrade Alexei Mikhailovich wrote:
with broken glass bottles or high tech security?
sportsfan wrote:
If only you'd also get more conservative like most people. [ducks]
Eric wrote:
Just for you.
CaptainMorgan wrote:
broken glass works great, won't fail and keeps off the pigons.
Isn't "income growth" an oxymoron in today's environment for about 95% of Americans?
Rob Dawg wrote:
I think you're wrong on that one. My dad went from giving money to the National Right to Work campaign and voting for Goldwater to sitting on an advisory board for our local left-wing congressman.
sportsfan wrote:
And that's pretty much been dogma here for years, no?
josap wrote:
Baseball bat to beat down the glass shards, heavy wool blanket.
Don't even have to take care of the bat work the same night as the entry, do it days ahead of time.
It's not HCN, Comrade. It's NSA.
Rob Dawg wrote:
I'm more conservative than you know in some ways (though I rarely admit that), but, no, I haven't become more conservative as the years have passed.
Many people, perhaps most, seem to become more conservative as they age, but I attribute that to fear. Older people are just more fearful on many levels.
So far I'm managed to avoid developing fear. As I once said to mp, I won't be scared
-less until the moment I'm fighting for my life. Until then, this is all just stuff happening out in the ionsphere somewhere.
MLM wrote:
your dd was ahead of the curve. I'm talking about sportsfan. Smart, well spoken, progressive.
A logical development...the IRS would likely pay a bounty for documentation on tax evaders. It doesn't seem really different than an informant in a drug cartel turning in production records to the DEA.
josap wrote:
What passes as a "market" these days is a complete joke. It's no longer a useful measurement of ANYTHING. The eventual collapse will be complete, as there will be no confidence in the government, the currency, nor the financial markets. For good reason.
Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis: Hardball In New Jersey, No Balls In Virginia; Brass Balls In Las Vegas
This info messes with my head. Maybe I'm a simpleton, or maybe I'm overthinking it.
Less MEW doesn't mean anything in and of itself, does it? If you're not taking money out, either you don't have it, or you don't need it. Two completely different scenarios. More than likely right now people don't have it.
But how is MEW, as a % of disposable income, negative? If less money being taken out, that percentage goes down, so if that number is negative does it imply money is being put back in? That doesn't make sense in this market. So then personal disposable income must be going up and MEW continues to decline.
But why would you want to throw your income away?
BTW, I hate to keep playing J@s Lite (OK maybe I don't), but why is it a BAD thing caused by lack of regulation when consumers fund their spending and home purchases with debt they don't have the income to pay off, but it's a GOOD thing when the US government does the EXACT SAME THING. Why isn't the pro-regulation crowd screaming for regulation to stop the government from doing precisely the type of thing Greenspan is accused of not stopping due to his free market idealism?
Methinks perhaps there is a double standard at work here.
Rob Dawg wrote:
That would fit my dad pretty well. He just changed his mind.
last hour MOONSHOT!!!!!!!!!
Eric wrote:
PPT kicks in right at the market open, aka 3:00PM
Assuming you have income to not pay the mortgage with.
The manual on the new economy sez to succeed in 2010 do the following
Quit job (if you still have one. Jobs are for SUCKERS otherwise known as people who play by the old rules)
Quit paying mortgage
Draw UI
Rent out rooms
The manual sez the government has got your back as long as you funnel your 'earnings' into PCE. And don't even THINK of working, it will detract from time spent spending.
NGBROI wrote:
Isn't "income growth" an oxymoron in today's environment for about 95% of Americans?
Didn't the 2010 budget include a mandated 2.0% raise for federal government employees?
3:00 steroid injection.....
"HCN: waht's the deal with HCN on Firefox? I can't stay logged in for more than 20 minutes at a time. "
I've had the same problem.
Now, just substitute prop desk for PPT and there you are!
ghostfaceinvestah wrote:
Indeed the government is just replacing MEW with entitlement programs and stimulus packages funded by treasury debt.
In essence it's the same thing except perhaps some of the government spending is going to fund more productive projects, but over all it still seems that asset bubbles and consumption is what's being driven the most by this debt binge.
black dog wrote:
Hey, somebody has to do it.
I'm using Firefox and stay logged in. Do you have the latest version?
I love work, I could watch it all day!
Little memory lane
Video: Alan Greenspan | The Daily Show | Comedy Central
ac wrote:
What is the deficit this year, $1.6T? That will fund a lot of consumption. How sustainable it is, we will see. I am betting not sustainable.
I've heard from a couple HFTers that they monitor the action in the morning, place some short term bets, watch the market rise, and then close out of all positions to make sure they have zero exposure into the close.
This strategy would be market neutral without somebody actively building equity positions, or another party intentionally losing money. And obviously somebody is doing that. The question is whom?
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/detroit-attempts-sell-250-million-bonds-without-financial-disclosure-goldman
"Detroit is attempting to sell $250 million in debt, while disclosing in the associated prospectus of the possibility of filing for Chapter 9 bankruptcy protection. The kicker - no recent financial statements are available. In fact, Detroit is providing investors with a a financial statement from June 30, 2008, with a fiscal 2009 report "expected" to be complete by May 31."
It would have to be a mighty high yield offered...
Yes, I've seen this problem, but haven't gotten around to solving it. It appears to be more pronounced when I have more than one tab/window open.
rosethorn wrote:
Don't worry, some sucker will buy. Casino here we come.
josap wrote:
Not really.
Casino gives you a chance to win.
shill wrote:
I think it's safe to say, irrespective of political persuasions, that we're all a little bit nuts in here.
Can the Fed by city or state bonds?
Or could Fannie or Freddie "invest" in bonds?
Seems like a way to bail them out, without a congressional vote or public outcry.
noob goldberg wrote:
But we are not boring!
josap wrote:
Seems like a way to bail them out, without a congressional vote or public outcry.
I'll trade you some cat crap for your monkey poop...
rosethorn wrote:
7.56% compared to about 3.5% for a top rate muni from around the rest of nation.
Indeed the government is just replacing MEW with entitlement programs and stimulus packages funded by treasury debt.
They will need to replace more than MEW. I wonder how many households in the past decade - who never considered taking MEW - cut back on their savings because home appreciation was doing all the heavy lifting towards their ING number?
noob goldberg wrote:
I must say, that my outlook on the world improved considerably when I came to the realization that everyone is crazy...
Using whatever the latest Firefox version might be, over the past several months I have remained logged on for many days at a time. Seldom have to log back on.
Lobbyist Ben Dover wrote:
Watching is for those who can't blog about it.
josap wrote:
Building a garage with a mother in law space above it, using it as my home/storage space while blading everything else after I slowly dismantle my current place. No HOA, no historic distric, no restrictions asides from normal zoning and stormwater retention due to living in the 500 year flood plane(hence the cisterns that will be below ground.)
City wants construction, city wants permit fees, city wants green architecture.
shill wrote:
With the anaemic volume today, I'd suggest growth hormones and iron supplements over steroids. We just passed a hundred million on the dow, and there's only 20 minutes left.
ResistanceIsFeudal wrote:
OK, but I won't have the cat dung for a day or two, just cleaned the litter box.
energyecon wrote:
First step is realizing Human, All Too Human. I don't know what the next 9 or 11 steps might be.
sportsfan wrote:
They involve drinking and cavorting with the opposite sex.
kcoop wrote:
Guilty as charged.
noob, that's probably why I don't know what they are.
Still married to my first spouse and banished alcohol a couple months ago.
josap wrote:
Nope, and the comments are rarely predictable, which I also appreciate.
I should probably man up and admit that I waste too much time on CR and hoocoodanode, but it'd be a lie.
I spend too much time here, but it's never a waste.
Comrade Alexei Mikhailovich wrote:
Very cool. And several cities are making me insane with increased tax lic renewal fees. Up from $7.00 to $100.00 each.
We can use cat poop for trade now! Hurray! I'm rich!
black dog wrote:
And since consumers are so depleted the only thing the government can really tax to fund this spending is business profits. But who's going to start a business when all your profits have to be taken by the government to cover its expenditures?
Starting a business becomes all risk and no reward. Not many people are going to do that, and the one's who do probably aren't going to be very bright.
Not the stuff a successful economy is made from.
Admittance is the first stage of recovery....so I am told.
A proud right wing nut I am.
Re firefox: Could it be one of the plugins you are using? Maybe a security thing that kills cookies after x amount of time? I don't use firefox (chrome) so I am just taking a stab in the dark.
Doesn't the MEW require some E to make the W work? How do you do that from underwater?
Comrade Kristina wrote:
I keep a case of cat food cans in the garage. I some times put one out after it rains and some stray will find it. The other day I started to leave the house in the morning after it had rained overnight, opened the door and there were five cats in the yard or in a tree, all with a good line of sight to where the can might be.
I don't know which telecom system they use, but they seem to have a pretty good network.
noob goldberg wrote:
Some appropriate music perhaps
So understand
Don't waste your time always searching for those wasted years,
Face up...make your stand,
And realize you're living in the golden years.
YouTube - Iron Maiden "Wasted Years"
Comrade Kristina wrote:
We can use cat poop for trade now! Hurray! I'm rich!
Not "rich" exactly, except in terms of its exchange value for monkey poop.
Cat poop has more value than certain securities which only exist electronically. At least a Zim dollar can be used for wiping.
Comrade Kristina wrote:
I only have one cat.
The cat has allergeys and the food costs $30.00 for a small bag.
The cat may not poop enough to make me rich.
The cat requires daily feeding and cleaning up after, as well as pets and attention.
The cat lives in the closet and only comes out at night, keeping me awake.
The cat, so far, has not been a good return on investment.
Should I feed the cat more or less?
Should I stop investing until the cat just poops more?
Should I get a new cat? Is there a market for my current cat?
So looking at the graph I see retail getting killed. We will drop to 80's level of consumption with more people. I suppose this is not good for CRE?
noob goldberg wrote:
perfect
nova wrote:
Checks SRS.
nova wrote:
Nonsense. Look at a stock chart of SPG - a large owner of retail malls and such.
Simon Property Group, Inc. Comm Share Price Chart | SPG - Yahoo! Finance
ResistanceIsFeudal wrote:
But, but the gov told me the monkey poop has real value. OMG, what do I do now?
josap wrote:
I think you may be falling prey to the law of conservation of mass...
josap wrote:
I don't have any cats, but then cats can't be owned anyway. That must be why they stop by my place. I have no claim on any of them.
Eric wrote:
What is the greek for 2x inverse slippage...?
Wow. Simon is my idol! American version.
Eric,
I told my wife gold was going to the moon...
nova wrote:
The high art of understatement.
Nice recovery in the Market, I can see the shill tube now:
Goooood Evening folks yes the recovery is right on track folks, things are looking up up up the market roared 34 points today ( adjusts exposed breasts on air ) and in other news, foreclosure are at their highest in decades, and the American Idol winners are in!!!!
The coefficient of friction is MEW.
energyecon wrote:
I hereby coin it "psi", for the sound you make as you watch the NAV fade away into nothingness.
my outlook on the world improved considerably when I came to the realization that everyone is crazy...
I can barely keep my eyes open to tell you how right your are.
nova wrote:
It is - on the next shuttle mission to the moon. Lots of gold in circuit boards on the shuttle.
nova wrote:
Oh yeah, baby.... talk slumdog to me... oh yeah.... right there.... yes, yes, yes....... double it baby..... uh uh.
sportsfan wrote:
Az law states that you own a dog are are responcible for it's actions. You harbor a cat (don't own it) and are not responcible for it's actions.
josap wrote:
The cat, so far, has not been a good return on investment.
Should I feed the cat more or less?
Should I stop investing until the cat just poops more?
Should I get a new cat? Is there a market for my current cat?
It's safe to assume a pretty linear relationship between inputs and outputs of the model (the cat)... more food = more poop. Saving the food will adversely affect the health of the cat, so you will have to feed it at least enough to survive, plus some sort of a qualitative premium for its utility value to you, plus whatever speculative gain can be arbitraged out of the spread between the price of cat food and the exchange value of cat poop by overfeeding him minus the estimated cost of his poorer health as a result of the overfeeding. It's a tricky proposition to own a cat as an investment asset.
Mike in Long Island wrote:
Astronaughts into body piercing - who knew.
Yep. Nothing like that time of month when the Fidelity statement comes in to get the narrowed eyes and the WTF look
It is - on the next shuttle mission to the moon.
Two more launches of the shuttle and then no more.
Shuttle to the moon. That makes so much sense, NASA just might do it.
sportsfan wrote:
ca·vort (k-vôrt)
intr.v. ca·vort·ed, ca·vort·ing, ca·vorts
1. To bound or prance about in a sprightly manner; caper.
2. To have lively or boisterous fun; romp: sportsfan cavorted with his wife, chasing and tickling her.
Whichever definition you prefer, cavorting is good for the soul. It does not require alcohol consumption, but sometimes can benefit from it.
ResistanceIsFeudal wrote:
There's a better return on feeding
s
shill wrote:
Please God, another 50 more points (or more) on the S&P before the MBS buying is over.
Mook wrote:
I vote for iota - since it will take every last iota of your money. Ιι
ResistanceIsFeudal wrote:
I beg to differ. Cat derivatives are an important and effective alternative asset class to own in one's investment portfolio.
josap wrote:
Good law. I guess I just provide the occasional safe harbor.
Time to go back to work. At least there is some.
The only growth is going to come from dead oxen. The ox of imported energy. The ox of too-big-to-fail financial institutions and their bubbles. The ox of the uncontrolled health insurance industry and big pharma. The ox of crazy and destructive patent and copyright law. The ox of crony capitalism masquerading as free market capitalism, and free market capitalism masquerading as something "good for all Americans." And a thousand other oxen.
Cut open their stomachs and the wealth will flow out. Enough for everybody.
ResistanceIsFeudal wrote:
That's why I only invest in RFBS (residential feline-backed securities).
They're a no-lose investment!
ResistanceIsFeudal wrote:
Thanks for the advise
Guess I will just keep the cat for the enjoyment factor and no longer think of it as an investment.
ghostfaceinvestah wrote:
Yeah, I'm kind of in the same boat. My straddles on the financials, are close to going in the money, and I'd like to be able to cash out for a profit on the upside, and still able to get a return, when the market turns south.
Here's the reason the market was up today (says bloomberg):Stocks in U.S. Advance as Health-Care Overhaul Is Slowed; Banks Lead Rally
Mook wrote:
I'm sure the Ivy League endowments own those as well. Those guys are never wrong.
That's why I only invest in RFBS (residential feline-backed securities).
I'm sure the Ivy League endowments own those as well. Those guys are never wrong.
Probably a lot of furinners too
And so castles made of sand fall in the sea, eventually
Uncle Ar wrote:
Or maybe because the dollar was down. Lately it seems like stock investing is a just a complicated way to play exchange rates.
Sovereign debt and the euro: All for one | The Economist
josap wrote:
that didn't produce anything at all but maintenance expenses, and expected to hold for the long term to get ROI.
Guess I will just keep the cat for the enjoyment factor and no longer think of it as an investment.
Sounds like a great idea! A cat is pretty low-risk though; imagine if you were one of the poor suckers that had leveraged yourself into buying a
Anonymous Bosch wrote:
YouTube - Castles Made of Sand- jimi hendrix
sm_landlord wrote:
I'd rather play kickball.
Elvis wrote:
I'm sure the Ivy League endowments own those as well. Those guys are never wrong.
They're too smart and too rich to be wrong. Ever. When they make a mistake, reality just redefines itself around the error.
The
meme is spreading:
"As the dollar falls and big cities grow more dangerous, I think we'll see riots, then an exodus to small town and rural areas, boosting demand for new homes in those safer regions."
Richard Maybury this week in his newsletter, U.S. & World Early Warning Report.
Uncle Ar wrote:
Makes perfectly good sense. Higher profits due to protecting the Insure Co from the people. Can't have the poor companies paying out now can we?
Comrade Alexei Mikhailovich wrote:
The growth in consumer spending will come from less borrowing. Once those high interest rate credit cards are cleared out, there is a lot of spending capacity.
The other source of increased consumer spending will be lower housing costs. This one is quite unevenly distributed. On net, lower housing costs will eventually perk through to a lower cost for almost everything.
Like houses, cat investments own YOU.
Uncle Ar wrote:
Volume today was 75% of the average, almost like it's a holiday. It's kinda disingenuous to try to explain market movements when volume is that weak, but I suppose that hasn't stopped Bloomberg in the past.
sm_landlord wrote:
Whoohoo! Sounds like some
for Houston then - energy and large port - 
!
edit: erm...apologies for my
Europe's banks brace for UK debt crisis - Telegraph
sm_landlord wrote:
And with what are they going to buy those new homes with? And where are they going to get jobs to pay the mortgage? Do the new homes come with several acres to grow food on?
This guy is not bright.
sm_landlord wrote:
Your border visa just went up in price.
In rural areas, nobody can hear you scream. In the big city, everyone complains to management when your TV is too loud.
sm_landlord wrote:
End of the world, and he's shilling for the home builders.
Dogs have owners.
Cats have staff.
josap wrote:
Indoor cat, no trade-in value. Just pick up a fixed cat from the pound and make it an outdoor feral cat. That way you won't have a roof rat or bird problem.
some investor guy wrote:
So if we all default now everything will cost less?
Mook wrote:
PSI high, we are being tested by the galactic observers
Anonymous Bosch wrote:
Cats have staff.
And sometimes, staph...
boosting demand for new homes in those safer regions."
Ah...what safer regions? There are no safer regions.
Husband: Doom is coming. We need to move to North Dakota.
Wife: Wheres that?
Husband: Hang on....I think...okay I googled it. See.
Wife: So whats there...
Husband: ah......safety!...hmmm....maybe...look...bowling!
Bob Dobbs wrote:
Actually, he's promoting a forest products company. Fortunately I have owned shares for some time now, so he's driving up my stock for me. I should send him a thank-you note.
Richard Maybury this week in his newsletter, U.S. & World Early Warning Report.
Simpleton. They'll just bring the crime with them.
It's good to see that when you force people under threat of financial destruction they'll eventually start behaving reasonably.
Consider this: CA is jumping up and down because they pulled off a $2B bond deal today.
Bernanke is buying that much MBS...EVERY SINGLE DAY!!
Back at the height of his buying, he was buying $5B A DAY.
I am telling you, this is going to have a huge impact on all the markets for as long as he stops buying.
A low volume market being manipulated to go higher and higher? No way! I can't believe that! I now quote Jimbo Jones from the Simpsons:
"Now I don't believe in nothin' no more: I'm going to law school!!"
I'm sure the suspicious close-knit rural communities are going to welcome a bunch of pushy unfamiliar city folk into their midst with open arms.
ghostfaceinvestah wrote:
Do you know when they get priced, or did that happen today?
CBC News - Canada - Federal budget watchdog disputes forecasts
First Quarter 2010 Survey of Professional Forecasters
First Quarter 2010 Survey of Professional Forecasters - Philadelphia Fed
2010: q1 2.7%, q2 2.7%, q3 2.7%, q4 2.7%. 2011: q1: 2.7%
that's the result of 100+ respondents
Speed wrote:
EvilHenryPaulson wrote:
Clearly, being possessed of foresight of this caliber is why they get paid the big bucks.
Day 3 of Living at the Doomstead
Wife: Honey! There is a man at the door!
Husband: Okay! I'm on it. --- He grabs his Black Plastic Tactical Marauder X100 Pump Auto and peeks out the window. It is some scroungy looking kid. Probably hostile. He yanks open the door and stands there in a combat stance. Oops. Safety is off. The scroungy kid is shot 14 times in 2 seconds. He looks down and calls out to the wife "Damn it! Another census taker!"
Oxtail, it's not usually as extreme as that, but you're right. At least in the Shenandoah.
ghostfaceinvestah wrote:
The absence of buying will have an opposite effect to the initial expansion of the Fed balance sheet above $2tn
I would look to HY bond spreads to increase, and the Treasury curve to flatten
EvilHenryPaulson wrote:
HAHAHA! (wipes tear)
And Kevin Page, love him or hate him, sure does have it in for government. That boy clanks when he walks.
MEW is over.
Incomes are not rising for most workers. Mine will fall in the 2H10.
Saving is still below long term trends and can't fall much.
There is no income source to drive PCE.
Greece in bankrupt.
The line in the sand for sovereign debt may be the UK.
AP: Slowly Americans are gaining their wealth back. Healing economy is boosting stock portfolies. Can't make this up.
Mook wrote:
Has there even been a time when 5 consecutive quarters of real GDP growth have been remotely so consistent? It makes me curious what is the gravitating force towards 2.7%, in what I presume is a vacuum of certainty.
ghostface, it looks like lockyer is going to throw in an extra half a billion since demand was so good.
"As the dollar falls and big cities grow more dangerous, I think we'll see riots, then an exodus to small town and rural areas, boosting demand for new homes in those safer regions."
He is a true doomer. Boosting is slang for steal ... which is exactly what those rioters will do when they invade the safer regions.
So...who's going to host the 2012 Olympics if London is unable to? I'm just thinking out loud here...
EvilHenryPaulson wrote:
By short rates going up or long rates going down?
EvilHenryPaulson wrote:
Sounds like Bernie Madoff's monthly statements to the suckers. Amazingly consistent.
beijing
My parents moved to a rural area from the suburbs a few years back, and brought their pushy city attitude with them. They had a spat with the county assessors, and were surprised to find that the county fought back by massively inflating the value of their property (i.e. their taxes). They still underestimate the pettiness of these people.
EvilHenryPaulson wrote:
The govt. exagerated it's economic forecast?!?!?!?!?
Oxtail wrote:
ESPN sponsors Atlanta.
The Olympic franchise is dead.
Antarctica. Nice international site, and if things don't go off as planned, they can blame it on the snow.
Rob Dawg wrote:
Agree. Just another hole for throwing money down, never to be seen again.
Mr Slippery wrote:
Well yeah, basically reversing the dominant trend in the COT reports. 2yr is long, 10yr is short. Demand for Treasuries is there, the loss of hot cash injections will be felt where the marginal money went, grinding down junk yields.
2010: q1 2.7%, q2 2.7%, q3 2.7%, q4 2.7%. 2011: q1: 2.7%
I heard the exams were a breeze at 'The Trend Is Your Friend' School of Economics.
Anonymous Bosch wrote:
Snowmagedon Part III
Anonymous Bosch wrote:
This is our decade of Snow.
Too much snow to shop.
Snow jobs from gov.
Too much snow to look at house for sale.
Too much snow for people to go to work.
Snow piled higher and deeper.
Then we will have hurricane season.
josap wrote:
WTF was that totem thingy? Worse than the Misha bear.
Thing is since the one off miracle of the 1984 Los Angeles event it has been a weird race for the bottom presaging the coming monetary race for the bottom.
True story of small town pettiness. When I lived in Maine there was an old woman (96) who had moved into the town 90 years before when she was 6. The locals still thought of her as "from away."
She was born in a town 12 miles away.
My parents moved to a rural area from the suburbs many years ago. It was rumored locally they were a rocket scientist and his debutante wife, that they planned to put a glass and steel extension onto the 19th c farmstead they'd bought.
Instead, the 'rents restored house, barn and smokehouse, added a pergola, then turned their attention to volunteer work locally - food bank, meals on wheels. Mom helped the county to establish its first EMT service. They returned favors with favors - a casserole, maybe, or home made pies. They never became locals. But they were very welcome.
They do not see any pettiness in these people.
The safer regions are a web of of people who often are related by marriage or family. Or they are someones ex-wife or high school sweatheart. Layer church connections and a clannish attitude if the perceive you to be acting superior and you will get nothing.
Well, there will be a lot of expensive hardware changinging ownership within a year.
Athens. They'll have the 3 A's that guarantee success: Availability, Ability, and affability.
Hmmm. Maybe the third "a" will have to be 'Athens.'
Oxtail wrote:
s as far as the eye can see, and make demands on the infrastructure that it can't handle, then complain about the quality of life.
I'm sure the suspicious close-knit rural communities are going to welcome a bunch of pushy unfamiliar city folk into their midst with open arms.
Can't wait for a bunch of ex-Californians to come in and take the few high-salary and high skill jobs available, gentrify nice old neighborhoods, build
Anonymous Bosch wrote:
There's a reason I live in a large city now, and that's because I grew up in a tiny village.
I think it's a safe bet the yield curve will flatten so long as credit continues contracting in concert with aggregate demand. Asia and South America, even if they are growing at the moment from extraordinary credit boosts, still are minor in comparison to US+Europe ... especially in terms of the imports necessary to shift US/EU economies into growth. The US at its peak of importing could hardly pull Japan along on its own
cya - and it was getting
ish
Rob Dawg wrote:
Speaking of money holes. When's the next World's Fair and who is the host city?
Mike in Long Island wrote:
Hu is the host city?
Always liked Aimee Mann's Fifty Years After The Fair:
Fifty years after the fair
the picture I have is so clear
underneath the clouds in the air
rose the Trylon and the Perisphere
and that for me was the finest of scenes
that perfect world across the river in Queens
Fifty years after the fair
I drink from a different cup
but it does no good to compare
'cause nothing ever measures up
I guess just for a second we thought
that all good things would rise to the top
[Chorus]
But how beautiful it was - 'tomorrow'
we'll never have a day of sorrow
we got through the '30's, but our belts were tight
we conceived of a future with no hope in sight
we've got decades ahead of us to get it right
I swear - fifty years after the fair
Fifty years after the fair
I live in tomorrow town
even on a wing and a prayer
the future never came around
It hurts to even think of those days
the damage we do by the hopes that we raise
[Chorus]
But how beautiful it was - 'tomorrow'
we'll never have a day of sorrow
we got through the '30's, but our belts were tight
we conceived of a future with no hope in sight
we've got decades ahead of us to get it right
I swear - fifty years after the fair
nova wrote:
I've been stuck in meetings most of the past couple of days, but I've really enjoyed diving in here once in a while to taste the
.
It tastes like children's tears and Cheetos.
What you said, noob.
When people you've never met and live 50 miles away know you're making moon, it's time to find anonymouser pastures with plenty of people around who have no idea who you are or what you're doing.
edit: not that I do that anymore.
dubfan wrote:
A little humility goes a long ways. Personally I'm sick of city stuff, like people complaining about the use the use of spray paint outdoors. Outside my office window today, there was someone yelling at the gardener for running a weed-whacker.
If you put too many rats in a small box and don't feed them, you can't expect a happy outcome.
rosethorn<
HomeGnome is in Portland, OR
dryfly wrote:
Apologies for the typo.
Speaking of rats, anyone know if there have been updates to the rat population explosions in NYC, London, and Paris....haven't heard anything lately...
I think the increase in people not paying taxes is a bad idea and corrosive to democracy. Even if they have to pay a small amount -offset with increased government services or reduction of federal taxes that people don't see like excise it will make them conscious about what government spends on. WIth 36% of the population not paying taxes is it any wonder that the electorate gets distracted with irrelevant wedge issues? Probably accounts for why there is no large constituency for fiscal restraint. 36% are not paying 60% are getting a government handout and the balance are found complaining on Calculated Risk.
Bob Dobbs wrote:
Never waste a crisis-
I wish my parents approached rural living with that mindset. Mine want to live the suburban lifestyle without the hassle and intimidation of neighbors.
I don't think the financial centers are hiring a lot of fresh blood currently...
Mike in Long Island wrote:
No problem...
Oxtail wrote:
"Okies go home" all over again.
Vonbek777 wrote:
Speaking of rats, anyone know if there have been updates to the rat population explosions in NYC, London, and Paris....haven't heard anything lately...
Nor of resurgences of the Black Plague... we'll probably get its modern and equally-deadly equivalent soon enough
OMG! We're hosed. The country has 9 taxpayers left? (It's obvious the lurkers aren't paying or they'd be bitching everyday too.)
Has anyone heard from fallonPDX, haven't seen him here in ages... he was an urban planning prof and worked in Portland's planning department for his main gig I think... he had been worried but some mayoral sex scandal came up and took departmental budget heat off for a while, but that's the last I remember
That wouldn't be so bad if those 9 were carlos slim, bill gates, larry ellison, george soros and their ilk.
I haven't seen PDX, EHP.
Now to guess which CR addict is George Soros.
I missed my calling.
Specialist nurses paid higher salaries than family doctors - Mar. 11, 2010
Certified Registered Nurse Anesthetists only need a graduate degree (I believe it's a 2-3 yr. program) and they start at $189K, more than family doctors.
I'm sending this to my biochem student. She won't listen to me, but it's worth a shot.
HomeGnome wrote:
Anyone seen Not a real american?
Uncle Ar wrote:
That wouldn't be so bad if those 9 where carlos slim, bill gates, larry ellison, george soros and their ilk.
Taxes? They are for the little people and the working rich.
NaRm hasn't posted in weeks, Mike.
er fatigue? Gitmoed?
Uncle Ar wrote:
They probably pay less taxes than Buffett, who said his secretary paid more than he did.
He posted a real short message yesterday...I think...said he has been busy.
Well, dub, I sorta won the parental lottery. But I bet you're a nicer person than I am . . .
Mike in Long Island wrote:
---The
got NOTaREALmerican.
Patchwork Pension Plan Adds to Greek Debt Woes - NY Times
The Greek Hurt Locker sequel : The Orchestra Locker
Vonbek777 wrote:
That's good news. I hadn't heard anything from him in weeks. I was beginning to worry that the amoral scumbags finally got him.
German Exports and that Looming Double Dip - Credit Writedowns
So Sweden is double dipping. German might soon follow. Someone should put up a list of different countries around the world which double dip or are close to double dipping.
"Speaking of rats, anyone know if there have been updates to the rat population explosions in NYC, London, and Paris....haven't heard anything lately..."
you do know... we are all in a RAT race! or maybe slave race to the bottom.
so was at my crappy contract job (oh the joys of IT contract work) and they are doing a massive move to a bigger floor on this commercial property. funny thing is they are the only tenant in this building. they decided to spread out to two floors because they threatened the property owners of plans to find greener pastures cheaper across town. so they gave them free rent for 2 years (as long as they signed a contract for 5). is that desperate? oh and btw, this company was hoping to make oodles on the carbon tax credits... some sort of meter they make for machinery... whatever. anyway, some union carpenter working on the construction started talking to me, and after awhile i got the impression he thought i made big bux (which i laughably don't).. because he then went on about how he loved that his union guaranteed him more than 100k in pensions (which wouldnt suprise me), trying to one up me or something. i frankly was just amused and a little sad that seems many ppl put too much faith into things they have no control over ie unions, governement, benevolent bankers bleh....
anway an odd day for the rat race life i live!
Anesthesiologists have one of the longest residencies, make good money, and are probably the most likely to kill a patient
The challenge with Nurse Practioners, or Nurse Anesthetists, or similar positions are finding somewhere where they can work
Basically it is competing directly with Doctors, at a lower price point due to a more streamlined education
noob goldberg wrote:
---Type 1's or Type 2's?
So, the cake that I sent him with the file in it got through. That's a relief.
Perhaps, but only because losing the generational lottery hasn't made its full impact on my psyche.
SPOOL wrote:
politcians too?
Yeah, if you check his profile, he posted a link yesterday at noonish. I haven't been on much, thought he had been back already, should have asked him where he has been.
EHP - Maybe since your Canadian, you don't realize this, but nurse practitioners have basically taken the place of physicians in a lot of areas down here. In fact, I couldn't get a primary care physician for my kids because the physicians were full. They have a nurse practitioner as their PCP.
Same is true w/nurse anesthetists. According to the article, they're quite in demand.
Unless you have another source of info; if so, I'd be interested, because I'm about to undertake a total sell job.
Outsider
I know because of the insurers' power, Nurse _____ are more in use in the US, but I have seen stories where they have been held back by the state doctor/medical association so I would recommend checking whatever jurisdiction they plan on working in first
Thanks EHP - I'll check into employability issues. But I have a feeling down here, where cash is king and insurance companies rule the day, they jump at the chance to take the cheaper route.
We'll see.
If you are thinking of buying a home, and it's your first time, you had better do your bloody homework. Learn about the home buying process, and also about what getting a mortgage entails. It might behoove you to look for an agent. Figure out how much mortgage you can really afford – your dream home might send you running for payday loans every month – and that's just payments; you should also bear in mind if you would benefit from an adjustable mortgage or a fixed rate. Purchasing real estate is one of the biggest investments you'll ever make, and easily one of the most important.