Pigged from last thread,

CR, you may be interested in this survey http://www.ebri.org/pdf/PR.868.9Mar10.RCS-10.Final.pdf

Here is part of it. People retiring later means that you need more jobs to keep any particular unemployment rate.

"Workers postponing retirement: One-quarter of workers (24 percent) report they have postponed
their planned retirement age in the past year. Among the reasons cited for delaying retirement are
the poor economy (29 percent of those postponing retirement), a change in their employment
situation (22 percent), inadequate finances (16 percent), and the need to make up for losses in the
stock market (12 percent).
• Later retirement expected: Although the age at which workers report they expect to retire shows
little change from 2009, a longer-term look finds significant change. In particular, the percentage
of workers who expect to retire after age 65 has increased over time, from 11 percent in 1991 to
14 percent in 1995, 19 percent in 2000, 24 percent in 2005, and 33 percent in 2010."

Hoopajoops LTD wrote:

an educated, empowered electorate will not choose to push the button and destroy itself out of some sort of stupid animal rush to loot everything.

While I would agree that people are generally good in a civilized society we are ultimately still animals and are subject to animal instincts when our base needs are not met. When society breaks down and the common good is lost you can call it evil or just reverting to basic animal instincts. I don't subscribe to the mad max scenario, but we have let the political power and economic power of the country be increasingly concentrated to less and less people. Its a course I don't want to see us continue down. I don't believe the electorate is either as educated or empowered as it needs to be as those with the money and power will fight any changes that decreases their hold over either.

some investor guy
Take a look at who receives services that cost a lot, and who votes.

When you said that I immediately thought "medicare."

some investor guy wrote:

In particular, the percentage of workers who expect to retire after age 65 has increased over time,

I fully intend to die on the job, quietly pass away during a marketing presentation....
~splat

Where's the slumster today ? Licking his wounds on his GLD CALLs ?

Rob Dawg wrote:

Surely the banks can get together and trade paper so that a single lender ends up owning both.

Shouldn't that read.. "so the taxpayer ends up holding the bag for both ?"
~splat

dr munch wrote:

With 10 million people looking for work, many of them with real estate/finance backgrounds, it's hard to believe that banks are still short staffed for dealing with their backloads. Almost like they don't want to.

Ya'; it's almost like they don't want to recognize those losses.....

noob goldberg wrote:

think I had to read a Chomsky paper on Turkish syntax.

I almost fell asleep just reading that.

Jesse's Café Américain: Propaganda Campaign Attempts to Mask the Economic Risks and Reality

dr munch wrote:

Sorry, I ended the last sentence with a proposition. Should say, "Almost like they don't want to, bitches".

There's really nothing wrong with doing that, English != Latin. Latin == dead dead dead dead dead ( thank god )
~splat

Various exigencies can compel the big players to make statements swearing gold and silver are no good, no store of value against all the evidence of history. But the fact remains that the US dollar reserve currency regime is falling apart, tumbling like the humpty-dumpty construct that it is. And the status quo is shitting their collective pants about it, and the likely backlash from the public when their deceptions are exposed.

Jesse is pissed, first time in a long time ( long Time follower ) that I have read Jesse use profanity ( shit )

Sure getting interesting out there.

Thanks Cinco.

splat wrote:

dr munch wrote:
Sorry, I ended the last sentence with a proposition. Should say, "Almost like they don't want to, bitches".
There's really nothing wrong with doing that, English != Latin. Latin == dead dead dead dead dead ( thank god )
~splat

FWIW, "to" is a preposition, not a proposition.

this will not solve the 2nd lien problem.

It is not a problem. Second liens are like second children. A wonderful blessing from above. Don't look at their faults, embrace their positive qualities. I love my second lien. Never ever hurt a second lien.

Cinco-X wrote:
I take it you're not a Libertarian....
LOL... well... roles of wielding ultimate power, being the source of authority, education and material provider... not to mention unlimited wealth. We got em all now.

Comrade Kristina wrote:

I don't think that will be the case. Many I know that are delaying retirement are doing so because they can't afford to pay for Health Insurance on the open market so they hold off waiting for Medicare to kick in.

I think that when folks talk about delaying retirement, they're talking about working "after" SS and Medicare kick in because they can't live off that and their limited savings.

To caveat my post from last thread on the Kunstler book...he wrote it in 2005.

Vonbeck-

I got called with that a few months ago......it was quite enlightening to say the least. Responses they wanted to hear were just too tailored to the desired result IMO.

Ciao
MS

Elvis wrote:
A wonderful blessing from above. Don't look at their faults, embrace their positive qualities. I love my second lien. Never ever hurt a second lien.
Lien on my lien when you're not strong. And we'll both hope it stays up.

Oxtail wrote:

Tick tock...

Where's mp?

I know many in that boat as well. One of my friends is a 76 year old Sam's Club greeter. Her husband got creative with the mortgage before he died and she has to work or lose the house.

Oxtail wrote:

Haikou, capital city of Hainan, ranked first among other major cities in new home price growth, which soared 58.4 percent year on year in February. Sanya, the second largest city in Hainan, saw its new home prices up 56.1 percent.

PLEASE GOD, or anyone on this board, tell me how I can short that market. I want to be ready.

So then why is Frank jaw-boning about writing them down now?

What's the end game of that other than pandering to the electorate?

Ciao
MS

would a $50,000 2nd lien holder be willing to sign off for only $1,500?

If the alternative is nothin

It really is tragic. She's a wonderful lady, she gave me away at my Wedding as I didn't have any family member to do it. Her big complaint is they won't let her sit down at any time other than lunch or break. Standing up for eight hours can't be easy on 76 year old legs. I've tried to talk her into letting the house go but she wants to leave something for her daughter.

MS wrote:

So then why is Frank jaw-boning about writing them down now?
What's the end game of that other than pandering to the electorate?

We need a :answered-your-own-?: icon...

Comrade Kristina wrote:

I've tried to talk her into letting the house go but she wants to leave something for her daughter.

It would be nicer if she left her daughter derivatives.

Mr Slippery wrote:

I don't subscribe to the mad max scenario, but we have let the political power and economic power of the country be increasingly concentrated to less and less people.

Have you ever lived in an urban area for one week without electricity of gasoline?
It will make you a believer in max mad.

Is that worse or better than living in an urban area without toilet paper or garbage collection? Just askin'

Comrade Kristina wrote:

I've tried to talk her into letting the house go but she wants to leave something for her daughter.

And as a parting gift you get an underwater house with a mortgage. Congratulations!! Sign right here, no don't read the fine print - it's as safe as well you know houses!!

Have you ever lived in an urban area for one week without electricity of gasoline?

Check out what happened to New York City in the 70's when the power went out and the budget cuts were in full force. It was fucking anarchy. Buildings burning down left and right, garbage all over the street, gangs of folks roving around the subways robbing people with absolute impunity...

Gold-tungsten meme graphs which are interesting, they imply that gold is being manipulated.

http://realmeme.com/roller/page/realmeme?entry=gold_tungsten_fraud

But what's most interesting is who is reading my site.
The percentage of State employees I'm getting is very high today, probably highest I've ever seen.

Cinco-X wrote:

Is that worse or better than living in an urban area without toilet paper or garbage collection? Just askin'

No toilet paper or garbage collection is a consequence of no gasoline.

Been there, done that Mike which is how I landed here at CR after "inheriting" one of those great deals. Which is why I'm trying to get her to let it go. Tell WF to go screw themselves and move into a nice apartment with no maintenance.

Mr Slippery wrote:

Have you ever lived in an urban area for one week without electricity of gasoline?
It will make you a believer in max mad.

I tend to discount the end of civilization scenario as its pointless to prepare for it. However, the drop into 2nd-3rd world status is a real threat to consider as our standard of living is likely to go down.

CalculatedRisk wrote:

That is the old "lump of labor" fallacy. If people delay retiring, then that should have positive implications for the job market - the economy should expand and there will be more jobs!

My view is more nuanced. I think if people who would otherwise retire are being productive at their jobs, it is a net positive. It probably expands the GDP and reduces unemployment. People who are employed rather than retired tend to pay more taxes, use more services (lunch, dry cleaning, gas, car maintenance), and live longer.

On the other hand, it's entirely possible that some of those people are unproductive or get paid much more than they are worth. In that case, they reduce the overall efficiency of the economy.

You could be right Cinco, I haven't asked her. She is supposed to be bringing me her mortgage documents as I'm trying to help her get a modification. She is an ARM. She said they dropped her payment lower last month but she doesn't know why. It's Wells Fargo so who the hell knows what they are doing.

The subways ran on coal when the power was out?

The subways ran on coal when the power was out?

Worse - crack cocaine.

Re- Cinco-X, I got distracted yesterday, I actually am sorry I misquoted you and I would have edited if I'd thought of it. I was just starting a job interview yesterday.

Hoopajoops LTD wrote:

Worse - crack cocaine.

The subways ran off the rails?

Hoopajoops LTD wrote:

gangs of folks roving around the subways robbing people with absolute impunity...

Those monsters.

http://img294.imageshack.us/img294/9884/podborka98.jpg

thanks to Jonathan and energyecon for the econbrowser link about

Two private-sector analysts (Jan Hatzius of Goldman Sachs and Peter Hooper of Deutsche Bank) have recently teamed up with three academics (Rick Mishkin of Columbia, Kermit Schoenholtz of NYU, and Mark Watson of Princeton) to produce a new financial conditions index

haven't read it yet, but it's in the hopper

broward wrote:

Re- Cinco-X, I got distracted yesterday, I actually am sorry I misquoted you and I would have edited if I'd thought of it. I was just starting a job interview yesterday.

NP- I point it out so that it doesn't get carried on by the folks that misquote you down thread.....

Comrade Kristina wrote:

It's Wells Fargo so who the hell knows what they are doing.

I think it was those fools from Norwest Bank in Minnesota that messed up Wells Fargo. But, who I am I?

some investor guy wrote:

Here is part of it. People retiring later means that you need more jobs to keep any particular unemployment rate

Some investor guy, I thought that was a very interesting survey. It illustrates nicely yet another angle of the deadlock the US economy finds itself in. We keep hearing that one of the solutions to the "entitlements problem" is for workers to continue working significantly longer past age 65. We now hear that that solution will continue to keep unemployment (presumably among younger workers) significantly high. This is where the diminishing returns theorized in Joseph Tainter's theory on collapsing complex societies begin to turn negative - where solutions do not solve the problems they are intended to solve.

It's not because he(frank) is dumb (well in the grand scheme of things yes I will admit he is dumb) however it's like the Markopolous appearance on the daily show...basically saying that the SEC can't read, is stupid blah, blah etc. They are not stupid as it takes a special breed of person to willingly allow the day after day manipulations that pose as real market action...I had a decent amount of respect for that guy until that TV appearance....where his entire take was "me smart...they stupid"....but didn't even touch the real issue with any real meaningful discussion...that is regulatory capture.

Ciao
MS

Russian Wolfhound. They don't live very long, so you would need several to keep the breed going. When we were in Germany, second duty assignment, we lived in a tiny German village, farming village. Anyway the bus stop was across the street from the largest house/compound...and one very foggy morning I catch something out of the corner of my eye...this was 7th grade so I was already over 6 ft...I thought it was a grey pony. Runs past me, and then turns around, I realize it is a dog, Goes hind legs, and knocks me down with his paws on my shoulders, and starts licking my face. Then he took my backpack and ran off with it. Of course the teacher didn't believe my 'dog ran off with my homework story', but I figured he was a friendly dog, so I spent the next week befriending it, and got my backpack back much worse for wear. Dog was very friendly, but it will put the fear of the dog god in you when it goes attack mode.

edit

You know I thought the dog was a russian wolfhound all these years, but just checked the breed...and I think it was actually an irish wolfhound based on the pictures.

Pellice wrote:

where solutions do not solve the problems they are intended to solve.

It is hard to get the right answers when you ask the wrong questions. Few people ask the right qestions. And only a few of them are sober.

Cinco-X wrote:

My Dad was staying in NYC the night the last big East Coast blackout began. He said it was a Nothingburger

I was in Detroit during the big East Coast blackout, and the first and second days were . Day three, people started running out of gas and food. Fights broke out at the few working gas stations over the line cutters, police were paralyzed because all traffic lights were out. ATMs and credit cards were useless. I'm telling you, after a week, polite society decays rapidly.

MS wrote:

Markopolous appearance on the daily show...basically saying that the SEC can't read, is stupid blah, blah etc. They are not stupid as it takes a special breed of person to willingly allow the day after day manipulations that pose as real market action...

Let's play "Spot the SEC":

http://img716.imageshack.us/img716/4074/podborka100.jpg

Second lien holders HAFA take a haircut.

So Markopolous is getting his 15 minutes (I wish it were 30), but I have a tough time believing that kicked Frank into action. Maybe, but it doesn't seem right.

I have the feeling that there's something we're all missing on this one, because it's rare that the motivation for such moves are opaque. (Unless of course Barney has decided that good accounting is in the best long-term interests of the market. Hahahahahaha.)

Another BS article from the reactionary American Enterprise Institute.

I've tried to talk her into letting the house go but she wants to leave something for her daughter.

It will be an heirloom, passed down from generation to generation, for many decades to come.

km4 wrote:

Wall Street financial giants have quietly paid out $430 billion in damages and settlements in over 1500 civil lawsuits

Without looking at the details, I have a feeling that much of that amount is for buying back securities. If you buy back securities with a value of $1 million when sold/issued, they might actually be worth $1 million now, but be illiquid. How much do you lose when you buy them back? Potentially, nothing. If the securities are now actually worthless, potentially every penny the investor paid, and some legal costs to go along with it.

To each his own Elvis. I couldn't afford a wolfhound. I'm partial to Old English Sheepdogs myself.

Speed wrote:

If the alternative is nothin

For purchase money 2nd (piggyback) this is a good deal for states where purchase $$$ loans are non recourse. For HELOCs, better to get the judgement.

JP wrote:

So Markopolous is getting his 15 minutes

He does love the sound of his own self-importance.
~splat

Elvis wrote:

Old people dying is the biggest boost to the economy. Off SS and Medicaid. Perhaps windfall inheritance to relatives.

When I read that I had a sudden flash of Monty Python "Bring out your dead" scene.
~splat

and in true Monty Python fashion...be back later.. gotta "go walkies"

Ciao
MS

The Mayor Of Detroit’s Radical Plan To Bulldoze One Quarter Of The City

EvilHenryPaulson wrote:

I think voluntary assisted euthanasia is a trend that will spread in countries with aging demographics.

Employment opportunities for Sand Men !
~splat

EvilHenryPaulson wrote:

there will be social pressure on the elderly to kill themselves.

They don't need to kill themselves. Just not be a burden to the productive parts of society (assuming that they aren't being productive) which means less expensive drugs, surgeries, and care.

It will make you a believer in max mad.

My takeaway from the Katrina fiasco was how quickly certain segments of society broke down and went rogue (and if unchecked for long leading the rest to follow).

A while back in some house committee meeting the CIA admitted they had launched a scud missile off a freighter to see if it could be done. If someone wanted to do great harm to the US all it would take would be launch a nuke tipped scud off the east coast with an atmospheric detonation generating a sizeable EMP. Let the fun begin.

*I think voluntary assisted euthanasia is a trend that will spread in countries with aging demographics. I believe the Netherlands is looking at a law that would make it legal for anyone over the age of 70 to commit suicide with professional assistance. Granted there has been growing demand for this already by those who would want it, so it's not completely Orwellian. It's just that so many countries won't be able to cope with inverted demographics, thereby creating miserable conditions, and there will be social pressure on the elderly to kill themselves. *

Like Logan's Run - but start at age 85 and see where that gets us. Needless to say, my cleints and friends think I am crazy when i mention this.

When I get a question like that, I tell them I can solve their brainteaser in one click.

I had a job interview once (.net) where a guy sat me down in front a computer, verbally gave me a couple sentences of requirements to code some crap. Expected me to use the ide's built in drag and drop database to front end wizard, which I've never used. I said if this is the crap you want and the requirements you give, then I really don't need to be working here, and left. Oh, and it was for a bank.

black dog wrote:

Let the fun begin.

There are simpler solutions to chaos than stuff like that. Major bottlenecks for commuters/transportation within metro areas. Well-placed bombs/time of day equals chaos. Energy grid is another such area.
.
For the sake of the NSA's listening folks, I don't advocate such ideas, but they are possible. God Bless America.

Eric wrote:

SPIKE!

When the Dow trading range is only 65 points, everything looks amplified on the chart

noob goldberg wrote:

When the Dow trading range is only 65 points, everything looks amplified on the chart

I remember the Good Ol' Days when the Dow would easily move 400 points in a day covering a range of 800 points. Those were the days... of '08-'09.

"I’m not going to claim I was cheated out of my house," Kennedy says several times. "I didn’t pay my mortgage."

Homeless man lives off hotel points from former life | kenne - Business - The Orange County Register

animalspirit wrote:

"I didn’t pay my mortgage."

Only fools do.

blackhat wrote:

"I didn't pay my China".

Hu knows how that turns out.

How's the volume today, noob? I wonder how long the market can meander like this.

yagij wrote:

Hu knows how that turns out.

I'm picturing a very angry looking, small, aged Asian guy standing on the porch banging on the door shouting.. "Hey you come out now.. I f**king own you.. "
~splat

I just bought a gold ETF double long! Therefore everyone else should short gold

'It's Going to Be Inflation Everywhere:' Deputy 'Doom' - CNBC

Just sold 1500 shares, 5 different execution prices: 13.7309-13.7325

Ten thousandths? WTF

"10 Year auctions very healthy. We may well be in a strong recovery."

Other than the 70% of our economy that is consumption based we do appear to be in a strong recovery.

dr munch wrote:

Ten thousandths? HFT

all your ten thousandths belong to us

Oxtail wrote:

How's the volume today, noob? I wonder how long the market can meander like this.

Highest volume on the NYSE in over a month--especially heavy on the down spikes at 11:40, 12:10 and 12:30 EST.

I like UGL, though I am not playing as of late, decided to go cash and let the Market do it's thing.

poic wrote:

Other than the 70% of our economy that is consumption based we do appear to be in a strong recovery.

he's a dummy spambot. A strong 10 year auction doesn't imply a recovery, it suggests there is little growth or inflation anticipated because even with MBS purchases winding down there is nothing else worth investing in.
I would even take it one step further to say we're going to have some curve flattening the next time there is a crush of short covering

Rail Traffic Declines Slightly in February

Hoopajoops LTD wrote:

You need to remember that human beings are basically good, that the greedy few who make headlines are not anywhere near a representative proportion, that we are hard-wired to take pleasure from selflessness, charity, and working for the good of our communities, and that given all of these factors, an educated, empowered electorate will not choose to push the button and destroy itself out of some sort of stupid animal rush to loot everything.
The myth that people are basically evil, greedy savages is an essential plank in the fascist argument that we really can't be trusted to govern ourselves. The next step down this path is the quite reasonable conclusion that it's better off after all if our power to vote and govern ourselves is diminished, for our own good. You need to sensitize yourself to this argument, and be very, very skeptical of anyone you hear repeating it. They, or someone they've listened to, thinks that they should rule you as a lord. For your own good, of course.

OK, so I'm really late on this, but...

Hoops, with all due respect, I very strongly disagree with this. And I think you draw the wrong conclusions.

Caveat: This is a worldview argument. And I'm not going to change your mind. That said, I'll at least post something to let this not go unchallenged.

Humans are basically good? Really? Have any kids?

If you give an entity complete freedom to do as they choose, they will choose for their own benefit. Always. (If they have COMPLETE freedom, with no societal or other pressures on them.)

There must be an authority. Be it God, or Government, whatever, the entitiy must answer to some higher authority to set rules and boundaries.

Power corrupts. And the power to freely choose is one of (if not THE) strongest power I can think of.

I think that's why our Great Experiment has been so successful, because the government has existed to provide each entity Life, Liberty, and the Pursuit of Happiness. Subtext is that you can do what you choose, as long as you don't take away these items from your neighbor. i.e. A boundary, enforced by a higher authority.

The difficulty we find ourselves in today is that the government we have now IS Lording it over us. And we keep, collectively, giving them (the government) the freedom to continually diminish our self-direction. Be it from the Left. Or the Right.

We've moved away from a democratically elected Republic, and have become more a true Democracy. And when you're outnumbered in a Democracy, the majority always wins. Regardless of your 'rights'.

Cheers to all...

EvilHenryPaulson wrote:

thanks to Jonathan and energyecon for the econbrowser link about

That one is all Jonathan, I just rooted around 'til I found the source doc...printed to read at a later time

Yeah, my cash has been sitting around so I decided to gamble again! It is tough trying to figure this market out right now, not much clear direction with In glod we trust Thanks Shill.

I can relate to your confusion for sure TF. Yes I decided to jump out a few weeks ago, still buying physical metals though, I don't care what the pundits say or what China or the central banks are doing, metals are a must have.

energyecon wrote:

Way I was taught it is that every large city is three days away from hunger

ie, every city is no more than 3 days away from revolution.

[ But would a $50,000 2nd lien holder be willing to sign off for only $1,500?]

Answer: no

Anyone who's been in this industry for any length of time has heard from 2nd lienholders that "it's not worth the time and effort to take the offer."

This program is as brain-dead as all those that preceded it.