March 9, 2010

"Yi Gang, head of China’s State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE), said the U.S. Treasury market is the world’s largest government bond market, Reuters reported March 9. Yi stated that China’s foreign exchange reserves are “huge,” making the U.S. Treasury market important to Beijing. Yi expressed hope that China’s presence in the U.S. Treasury market would not become a political football. China, he stressed, was not in the game of short-term currency speculation, adding that it is market investment behavior, and shouldn’t be politicized. Yi said China is a responsible investor and can surely achieve a win-win result in the process of investing."

Nanoo-Nanoo (profile) wrote on Tue, 3/9/2010 - 10:10 am
Eaton Vance Dumps Dirt Bonds as Florida Land Districts Default - Bloomberg.com

Dumping the so-called dirt bonds at a discount was a better bet, the Boston-based Metzold said, than taking over 218 empty acres (88 hectares) from the project’s builder and waiting for a real-estate rebound that may not come until the early 2030s, according to a Moody’s Economy.com forecast.

2030! Ouch Got Concrete?

Elmo! appears to be making an effort this morning.

Off to buy essentials..lat'r taters.

Some days there are many pigs - early and often. Other days the pigs get off to a slow start ...

Small businesses continue to be very cautious and many are in trouble. And that is holding back hiring.

best wishes

Cinco-X wrote:

Eaton Vance Dumps Dirt Bonds as Florida Land Districts Default - Bloomberg.com

The part that was interesting to me about that one was I thought municipal bonds were backed by the taxing authority of the issuer, not by physical collateral. Is that common?

I am shocked I tell you. But as a few of my Sheeple acquaintances would say.

" Its not the end of the world you know, the restaurants are full and look at the movie theater parking lot...full "

Hopium

Got some bad news for you Yi, all American politics is right now is a political football and both sides tend to fumble a lot in the red zone.

Cinco-X, from the Pigged thread:

*Hack editorialist Paul Krugman attacked Jim Bunning last week for blocking the extension of unemployment benefits. Krugman said “What Democrats believe is what textbook economics says”, namely that the government should keep paying unemployment benefits.

There’s just one problem. As James Taranto pointed out, a Nobel Prize winning economist has written a very popular textbook that points out exactly what Republicans are saying — “Public policy designed to help workers who lose their jobs can lead to structural unemployment as an unintended side effect . . . . Generous unemployment benefits in some European countries are widely believed to be one of the main causes of “Eurosclerosis,” the persistent high unemployment that affects a number of European countries.”

The author? Nobel Prize winning economist Paul Krugman and his wife Robin Wells.*

PK says they are wrong...

Supply, Demand, and Unemployment - Paul Krugman Blog - NYTimes.com

Sea Org is the Squid. It's all coming together now.

Maury the Credit Responsibility Panda wrote:

The part that was interesting to me about that one was I thought municipal bonds were backed by the taxing authority of the issuer, not by physical collateral. Is that common?

Actually, I think it is. It's the rating of the bond that's dependent on the taxing authority. If you think about the situations we've seen in corporate BK's, the equity holder's get wiped out and the bond holders get equity. I guess that's a way of saying that the physical capital of the company ultimately belongs to the bond holders.

mos maiorum wrote:

PK says they are wrong...

Did he?

Everyone agrees that really generous unemployment benefits, by reducing the incentive to seek jobs, can raise the NAIRU; that is, set limits to how far down you can push unemployment without running into inflation problems.

Edit: Thanks for the link to PK; I like reading his column, even if it is only to ridicule him.

Cinco-X wrote:

Did he?

Yes, and he also said further down that it is wage deflation, not wage inflation, that is the issue.

I don't understand these kinds of arguments. How many people do you know that forgo a job because their unemployment is too good, especially with no health insurance?

Regular borrowers (accessing capital markets at least once a quarter) continued to report difficulties in arranging credit.

I hate to throw metaphorical cold water on them, but these would be outfits that (a) can't grow through internally generated cash flow and (b) operate with so little foresight that, two years into this credit crisis, they still have to tap credit markets on a quarterly basis?

Admittedly I've never run one myself, but those sure don't seem like signs of healthy small businesses to me.

Crime Over Spilt Milk - March 8, 2010

MARCH 8--A Kentucky woman is facing a felony assault charge for allegedly squirting breast milk into the face of a female jailer. No one 17 and under admitted

Cinco-X wrote:

A Kentucky woman is facing a felony assault charge for allegedly squirting breast milk into the face of a female jailer.

Rule 34

I keep seeing 5 cars in the parking lot of a local corporate chain motel that has over 100 rooms. There's nothing they can do except keep on keeping on until the money runs out and one day the corp'se closes it down.

Somebody that owns a small retail business can surely see the writing on the wall and is a lot more nimble and can say sayonara a lot quicker. I owned a small retail business for many years, and 60 hour weeks came with the territory. if I was losing money putting in 240 hour months, i'd be out of there yesterday, the breaking of the lease being the least of my problems...

OT doomish factoid - been seeing a number of stories pop up talking about the prospects of ug99 making an appearance in Pakistan...

"lactation assault"

.
Such things may happen, but you know we hurt ourselves when we allow such verbal constructions to stand?

Push back might involve turning the MSM OFF.

...is that those sheep thrill boots from Aussie that chicks dig?

re: poor sales ... why spend when eventually there will be a government program to subsidize your spending? ... we've learned that from cash-for-clunkers, the housing tax credit, and now the hiring tax credit. Myself, I'm waiting out upgrading our kitchen till NC has its appliance rebate program (late April).

energyecon wrote:

OT doomish factoid - been seeing a number of stories pop up talking about the prospects of ug99 making an appearance in Pakistan...

black stem rust ?

Now the economists at UK research company Independent Strategy have waded into the debate and come to the conclusion that stimulus spending by President Barack Obama, Prime Minister Gordon Brown and others has been a complete waste of time and simply saddled future generations with a big bill that will crowd out the private sector for years

Road to Recovery - Economic Stimulus Was a Waste of Time: Analyst - CNBC

White House must have cutoff CNBC last night

Deficit a Problem But Don't Stop Spending: Romer

Deficit a Problem But Don't Stop Spending: Romer - CNBC

iceman wrote:

Myself, I'm waiting out upgrading our kitchen till NC has its appliance rebate program (late April).

Planning on decorating the front porch, huh?

LAM wrote:

Now the economists at UK research company Independent Strategy have waded into the debate and come to the conclusion that stimulus spending by President Barack Obama, Prime Minister Gordon Brown and others has been a complete waste of time and simply saddled future generations with a big bill that will crowd out the private sector for years
Road to Recovery - Economic Stimulus Was a Waste of Time: Analyst - CNBC

Yup; it's the debt that killing a recovery. As long as we refuse to admit that the trillions that went poof when the housing bubble and dot.com bubbles burst are gone forever, this debt will continue to act as an anchor pulling us under.....

...a real multi-tasking distaff would be applying makeup with the other hand, texting with her toes and driving with her knees

maybe the union is your friend?

Goldman Sachs sued by big pension fund over pay
| Reuters

(Reuters) -" Goldman Sachs Group Inc (GS.N) was sued on Monday by a large union pension fund that accused the Wall Street investment bank of overpaying its executives.

The International Brotherhood of Electric Workers fund filed the lawsuit in Delaware Chancery Court, seeking to recover money for the company on behalf of other shareholders.

It seeks to stop Goldman from allocating roughly 47 percent of 2009 net revenue as compensation, saying such allocations "vastly overcompensate management and constitute corporate waste."

The lawsuit also wants Chief Executive Lloyd Blankfein and others in management, rather than shareholders, to be responsible for charitable contributions that Goldman is making as a an apology for its activities"

so she's on her way to meet her boyfriend and wanted to be ready

she has her ex husband take the wheel while she preens

oh, the price of beauty

And the number one problem continues to be poor sales.

This explains part of the discrepancy between 'reported' retail sales and sales tax collections. Mom and Pop are being sucked dry and then go belly up. Meanwhile the medium to big chains (which are where the 'reported' sales come from) have access to capital markets and can hang on a lot longer. As M & P go under the sheeple will be herded into whats left - the 'reporting' big box stores. The media will tout the gain in 'reported' retail sales this year as a sign of a recovery while retail sales tax collections continue to run negative.

Dow 11K!!!!!!

volker the viking wrote:

so she's on her way to meet her boyfriend and wanted to be ready

she has her ex husband take the wheel while she preens

oh, the price of beauty

Two questions:
1. How did I know this was in Florida?
2. Is "boyfriend" a euphemism for something else?

China not too keen on gold, says forex chief - MarketWatch

Just a little Market Watch comedy too break up the tension..

black dog wrote:

As M & P go under the sheeple will be herded into whats left - the 'reporting' big box stores. The media will tout the gain in 'reported' retail sales this year as a sign of a recovery while retail sales tax collections continue to run negative.

Yep, but even the big box stores are closing outlets, and further concentrating customers, improving same store comparisons.

Wal-Mart Closing 10 Sam’s Club Locations in U.S. (Update1) - Bloomberg.com

Dow 11K!!!!!!

To the moon, Alice in Wonder bread land

Whiskey wrote:
2. Is "boyfriend" a euphemism for something else?
John? Laughing out loud

mas maiorum

cinco-x

you have taken krugmans thesis out of context

the part of his model you refer to is about how high UE insurance and benefits affeect job seeking when the economy is healthy

krug,mans model, that you cite is not about 10 million people UE, in thee middle of a financial crisis, trying to hook up with 1 million available jobs while demand is plunging and money supply and credit in the private sector is collapsing

the most effective way to stimulate business and an economy is to put money directly into the hands of families and small businesses...they spend it on food clothes health care tools and inventory

ps

seems like your definition of hack, is people you dont agree with

read krugmans book "the great unraveling" writen 10 years ago...he got it right

ResistanceIsFeudal wrote:

John?

Or dealer. Or both.

Mook wrote:

two years into this credit crisis, they still have to tap credit markets on a quarterly basis?

Many types of small businesses work on 90 day receivables. Medicare can take 190 days or more to pay invoices. Then some of your customers don't pay on time, then some never pay. Not saying it is a good business model, just the way it is.

DUH! There's no new business to hire for..... runaway Toyota rescue.... bank repos...... short sales..... these are not productive economic endeavors.... and despite what Bob Toll might think, housing does not lead, its just a leading indicator, its the underlying new jobs and productivity we need - I'm in his business.

One of my tenants refinanced the house a while back to keep the biz going. Last fall he said could make it another six months and if things didn't turn around ...

Lucky for me the person who borrowed the bungee cords I was using for my 'Space for Lease' sign returned them.

Great idea...

Maybe like in WW2 when Spitfires would tip V-1's off course, somebody can offer the same service here on the pavement?

"......read krugmans book "the great unraveling" writen 10 years ago...he got it right"
.

.....I wasn't aware he had EVER gotten it "right". I'll need to read it.

black dog wrote:
Lucky for me the person who borrowed the bungee cords I was using for my 'Space for Lease' sign returned them.
2010: Space for Lease
2030: Leases for Space Snark

Cinco-X wrote:

black stem rust ?

yah that is the one

black dog wrote:

'reported' retail sales this year as a sign of a recovery while retail sales tax collections continue to run negative.

At least we know which reports to look at, most people don't.

Lots of vacant strip mall space here, more vacants every month and no new businesses to fill the holes.

Black Star Ranch wrote:

.....I wasn't aware he had EVER gotten it "right". I'll need to read it.

He did speak out about the housing bubble in 2005, and he was an early CR adopter. Those are two plusses in my book.

Who sues the Union bosses for speculating at the big Casinos? Greed all around.

Business sales poor because of unemployment.

Unemployment because of poor business sales.

What will it take to break this stalemate?

We have another stalemate in the housing market: sellers aren't selling because their prices are too high. Buyers aren't buying because the prices are too high.

We need some good chess moves here.

black dog wrote:

the 'reporting' big box stores

And the survivor bias among the big box stores after other units of the same chain have been closed...

Outsider wrote:

We need some good chess moves here.

What if we're in zugzwang?

silver is headed for twenty

and if one reads your linked article all the way through

one will 'see'

josap wrote:

Lots of vacant strip mall space here, more vacants every month and no new businesses to fill the holes.

Any thoughts on when the strip malls might turn around . . . or at least stop declining?

Ostensibly, the only way to win from there is for your opponent to No one 17 and under admitted.

In my travels into the local Big Smoke I see so many empty retail buildings, a good many of the "For Lease" signs have been exposed to last summer's 3 months of around 100 degrees per day and are faded out, but you can still make out the signs.

1/4 of an inch of glass is keeping watch on the barren space behind it in these fallen enterprises...

mos maiorum wrote (in reply to...) - 8:02 am

mock turtle, thank you.


i argue with you...you read it, and reply with a thank you

how civil,

you are a better person than i

ps im sorry for mis spelling your handle in a previous comment mos not mas

should have known...latin,

This recession has dragged on so long that I can think of several local Falling Knife businesses that have opened then closed since december 2007. And several more with business plans that would have had a very hard time succeeding in a booming economy let alone what we are dealing with now that must be burning cash/credit at a frightful rate.

Black Star Ranch wrote:

.....I wasn't aware he had EVER gotten it "right". I'll need to read it.

Economics as a profession has truly not acquitted itself well during the crisis. Stiglitz, who made some sense at one point, is now a hired shill for Greece. On reflection, I think Roubini just wanted his 15 minutes so he could nail hot chicks.

Krugman, in particular, is a lightning rod. Politics and quotability are part of it.

I just wish he would follow his own thoughts to their logical conclusion more often.

energyecon wrote:

black stem rust ?

yah that is the one

I googled it expecting it to be some radical faction of "Al Qaeda", and when I only found references to cereal ailments, I was a bit confused....

Maury the Credit Responsibility Panda wrote:

I think Roubini just wanted his 15 minutes so he could nail hot chicks.

I can never fault a man for setting goals and following through.

Juvenal Delinquent wrote:

Got some bad news for you Yi, all American politics is right now is a political football and both sides tend to fumble a lot in the red zone.

Stephen Colbert put it better:

You give them (the opposing side) back the ball and then they help you kick a field goal.

sportsfan wrote:

Any thoughts on when the strip malls might turn around . . . or at least stop declining?

All I can guess at is: not soon.

We over built.
We have more retail space per person than any place on earth.
People are saving and not spending.
When they do spend they are looking for the lowest price, not highest value.
Big box can and does undercut pricing driving out the little guys.
Big box stores take over markets at will. If Walmart ever puts in a hair salon think of how many small shops would go under.

Cinco-X

i wonder if it affects poppy production

...hot chicks dig dismal scientists, whispering "doom me" and other sweet nothings

Economics as a profession has truly not acquitted itself well during the crisis.

Economics seems to be a discipline of post hoc ergo proctor hoc misrepresented by a teeming mass of ipse dixit pundits.

poppy production most likely, and in US wheat and soybeans.

Maury the Credit Responsibility Panda wrote:

Krugman, in particular, is a lightning rod. Politics and quotability are part of it.

It is more that he is so blatantly political without admitting it and that results in some spectacular instances of hypocrisy. Republican deficit spend = evil, Democrat deficit spending = manna from heaven being the most obvious.

Juvenal Delinquent wrote:

...hot chicks dig dismal scientists, whispering "doom me" and other sweet nothings

When I first popped open hoocoodanode this morning, and saw your 'dooma loompas' label, I was lost to a fit of giggles.

I assume it's the same for the hot chicks.

As soon as poic and I double down on SRS.

energyecon wrote:

OT doomish factoid - been seeing a number of stories pop up talking about the prospects of ug99 making an appearance in Pakistan...

Thanks for heads up.Yeah, it's a problem in some parts of Asia and Africa and from the article in, Wired (I think...), apparently researchers are hard at work on a solution, but haven't found one. Many of the places the rust strikes are near the equator (so far) and the US hasn't encountered this problem yet. ... I would expect that if ug99 appeared in North America the USDA has a plan for combating it (quarantines, etc.) that countries presently affected by the rust can't or don't implement.

I guess we should "stay tuned'

mock turtle wrote:

the most effective way to stimulate business and an economy is to put money directly into the hands of families and small businesses...they spend it on food clothes health care tools and inventory

From an immediate standpoint that may be true, but in the long term, it produces a poor result, since it does nothing to increase the base of the economy. Spending on capital, (the right) infrastructure projects, etc. produces more long term growth. A perfect example of this situation is post war Europe. We were giving them money left and right, and it was being spent on food, fuel, etc., and when that was gone, their hands were out for more. The Marshall Plan (aka the ERP) stipulated that the borrowing nations produce a plan to repay any incurred debt before receiving money. Worked like a charm....

NateTG wrote:

a discipline of post hoc ergo proctor hoc misrepresented by a teeming mass of ipse dixit pundits

you musta been waitin a long time to work that into a conversation Smile

mock turtle wrote:

i wonder if it affects poppy production

Poppies are "bleed or milked" for product. Seeds not used.
Not sure if rust effects poppies, thought is was just grains.

noob, mucha, mucha, mucha man. Isn't that a song.

Black Star Ranch wrote:

I wasn't aware he had EVER gotten it "right". I'll need to read it.

I wouldn't bother; no Keynesian has gotten it right-

josap wrote:

All I can guess at is: not soon.

We over built.

Sorry to hear that. It's a common problem, worse some places than others, but until all those holes get filled, it's going to be tough to see a turn around in the overall economy.

Rents can continue to fall, but until more people take a chance on opening a hole-in-the-wall location, the rental rates don't matter for anyone other than existing businesses. (Well they matter for the owners, too.)

Honestly, I'd prefer more constructive topics.

American politics is more like the WWF. The outcome is fixed from the beginning as the good guys battle the bad guys. The crowds cheer, the crowds boo The promoters rake in the money regardless. Only real difference is that the WWF has a higher standard of ethics. They freely admit its all a hoax. Pure theatre.

mock turtle wrote:

i wonder if it affects poppy production

Yes; it makes it an even better option-

you musta been waitin a long time to work that into a conversation
.
ROFL..........Good one.

Rob Dawg wrote:

It is more that he is so blatantly political without admitting it and that results in some spectacular instances of hypocrisy. Republican deficit spend = evil, Democrat deficit spending = manna from heaven being the most obvious.


i agree that krugman, politically, is clearly a democrat

what you call hypocracy i call a real difference in political ideaology

it is true that krugman is more willing to deficit spend when it boosts education, student loans, parks, highways, social service and like programs

and is often unwilling to deficit spend on defense and tax reductions for the fortune 500 corporations and the top 5% wealthiest in america

additionally there is the business cycle, and krugman believes that when the country is on the edge of a great depression, its not time to make balancing the budget the ruling priority

i agree with krugman...so long as the spending is properly targeted

i think you and i agree the tax breaks for cars and homes , pulling demand forward is a ruse

Cinco-X

good point , the spending on consumer non durables etc are a short term kick and i agree with all of that above comment that you made

MaryAnn wrote:

poppy production most likely, and in US wheat and soybeans.

These rusts and blights affect, if I'm not mistaken, monocotyledons, and as such would not have a direct effect on soybeans or poppies. Soybeans and wheat are typically not grown in the same regions anyway.

Maybe, just maybe, nearly 20% unemployment/underemployment could cause small businesses to feel some sales pressure: Underemployment 19.8% in February, on Par With January

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