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except for a few heart murmurs i passed the stress test, can the banks say the same?
uh oh im first
i now have chest pain
what about a stress test where the government IS the GDP?
I passed too.
Although I disagreed with some of the details, I think the stress tests were the best thing the Treasury did. We are still waiting for everything else ...
best wishes
forget it, gotta go...
Wells Fargo and Citigroup are both too toxic to fail. The 19 are nowhere near solvent.
digalert, I think that has to be taken into account. That is why I mentioned the short horizon again (that was one of my complaints last year - the scenarios ended in 2010).
The fiscal policies boosted GDP, and will continue to for another couple of quarters (maybe all of 2010 with the recent stimulus additions - and the proposed year long extension of unemployment benefits). So that makes this chart look better now - but if the growth isn't self sustaining, the problems could reemerge.
Later this year I think it might make sense to redo the stress tests for 2011 and 2012 - with all cans kicked down the road.
best to all
Never too late to do the right thing - that's my motto.
Geithner: jusqu’ici tout va bien - Credit Writedowns
Never too late to do the right thing - that's my motto.
I can think of a few exceptions.
But the other part to new metrics is not only following for a long enough time frame, but evaluating the parameters themselves. Are they as meaningful in a dynamic environment as they were before. Systems aren't static.
Specifically, review them in light of preexisting activities...like the CDS, etc. If the metrics are improving but the same crap is going on that torqued the system in the first place, it's just going to happen again.
Didn't they change the mark to market rules just before the stress tests?
I wish they had included some kind of metric for 'participation' - I don't think anyone expected as many to drop out and thus effect the unemployment rate as much as it did.
flaminia wrote:
Missed chances lead to alternate 'right things'. In this case, seppuku.
Got on at the tail end of the last thread and had to leave for a cold shower.
I'm just glad that wasn't Volker talking that way.
‘On the Edge’ Banks Face Writedowns on FDIC Auctions (Update1) - Bloomberg.com
Please Sheila Don't hurt'em
flaminia wrote:
LOL - I have a grandson as a result of nonsense like that - so don't look to me to condemn too hard.
so the three stress test parameters
house price, employment and GDP are all performing above the scenario
looking at the curves for each....i would think (guess) a double dip is the kiss of death
and really with all the mark to model nonsense that persists and off book prop desk activity in OTC derrivatives what does a properly capitalized mega bank look like
so what do the curves really mean
i dont know, because im not smart enuf...but i guess from reading around
that the banks are hollowed out and will drag us down for years
hope im wrong
i still believe in receivership and "the bank of the united states of america"... the pre-privatization idea
lets "settle" it
There are so many cans kicked down the road, I think the cans are the road.
dryfly wrote 9:12 pm
Never too late to do the right thing - that's my motto.
ok so some would take issue with the word never
lets try this
"its not too late to do the right thing" ..........sheila are you listening ...citi
mock, there was some interesting info on feeding markdowns into the SCAP framework:
Rortybomb’s run-your-own-stress-test spreadsheet | Analysis & Opinion | Reuters
SCAP Spreadsheet - Google Docs
You can enter your own numbers for projected losses, and witness the carnage...
Higher GDP due to higher unemployment?
Higher house prices due to gov money?
Lenders proped up by gov money?
What would the charts look like without all that money?
My guess is much, much worse.
What happens when the gov stops handing out money?
w-o-w
so, things are lot better than we thought they would be it seems... doesn't feel like it, yet
OT
"A coalition of communities in six Midwestern states filed a federal lawsuit Monday seeking to force the manufacturer of a widely-used herbicide to pay for its removal from drinking water.
Atrazine, a weed-killer sprayed primarily on cornfields, can run off into rivers and streams that supply municipal water systems. "
dont worry atrazine just chemically changes males to females...or in some species just chemically castrates the males
........
maybe this explains why sarah palin wentk to that dreadful death panel country, canada, to get some a that there gobermint run health care
Sarah Palin sees eye-to-eye with Albertans in Calgary speech - The Globe and Mail
Jonathan
thanx for the links
All I can say is the propping of the housing market, combined with the liquidity features stopped the crash.
The damage from the housing crash is still coming, all we have done is delayed it.
Barney Frank recognized that with his letter today.
Recognition of the dead Helocs is the first step in making a real housing market start again.
Right now we have zombie banks pursuing zombie debtors.
Strategic Defaults have begun. I am strategically defaulting right now. Why pay when the property is no longer economic and the investor/servicer refuses a good offer for more than short sale?
What morons. Until reality comes to the mortgage industry, this crisis will continue to get worse.
This just ensures that we will have to reconfigure the entire mortgage system. Nothing has significantly changed in the ways they deal with the debtors, even when the methods they are using are totally irrational.
Someday this war's gonna end...
NP. The loss projections for SCAP look pretty light, compared to what is going on with actual liquidations of assets.
Hey Barney, you want to really fix the banks, send me an email.
Pay me as a consultant, and I will give you the right fixes to make this work.
Or better yet, go the archives right here and get it for free.
I am tired of continuous failure by Washington.
They had better get some real changes real soon.
Somedya this war's gonna end...
Citizen AllenM wrote:
dude... all the charts i just looked at positive variances in them.
Citizen AllenM wrote:
They didn'tfail. The banks got all the help they needed.
We got screwed.
Help me out here; weren't the stress tests widely derided as a sham back when they were taking place?
I suspect that MBS-buying, HAMP and friends have allowed the banks to get pretty close to the limited markdowns, and liquidation avoidance implied by the stress tests.
Extend and pretend got us this far.
There is no can.
A can can't be kicked, that is impossible.
Instead, only realize the truth.
It is not the can that is kicked, it is you.
CR, thanks for tracking this. I am afraid these projections will be removed from all government web sites, if they haven't already.
Another tech dose, this time from Mauldin. This guy is too much! What a clown:
...Dan is an enthusiastic advocate, and it was easy to get infected with his vision, but I can see a robotics industry in the 2020s actually having some significance in the US and world economy. We explored all manner of potential uses for robots, some with more economic potential than others.** I am often asked where the jobs of the future will come from. It may be in robotics.** ...
The jobs of the future are in robotics?!?!?
p.s. a few interesting tech developments otherwise in the piece.
Why would they be removed?
99% of the population neither knows nor cares about these things. At best, they are tests that the government did to make sure the banks are safe.
Everything must be fine. Look! A shiny thing on TV!
i think the call on robotics (i.e., androids - robotics are already a significant product in the US with real productivity impacts) is sound. the timing is premature. 2020 will be here tomorrow. this call may be right for 2050 or 2075.
RE wrote:
Everyone is desperately looking for the next new wave of inovation to get us out of this mess.
If someone finds it today - it will take years to get it from the kitchen table to the status of saving grace.
Well it was fun
but one of the rules of Calvinball is the 
go to those who think rationally.
Outlier wrote:
well? what does that teach you?
In catching up with the
infamous praise Caesar thread I see most of the important points were made by Ehp, Gav Hath, Citizen AM and the usual suspects.
Got to give that Sebastian guy (oops I mean CR) for sticking to an unpopular stand.
Somewhat OT: watching c-span forum on health care. Just ended, an excellent lecture by JFK/Harvard Govt applied prof of Economics ----David --(?) [edit: Cutler] Highlights:
"Only an economist thinks colonoscopies are a benefit."
"How many of you communicate with your doctor by e-mail? Name 2 other people you don't communicate with by e-mail...."
"Compensation should be focused on the patient (mainly whether she is actually helped)-- the patient doesn't care whether the care is given at her home, in a lab, at the pharmacy, at the doctor's office, at the hospital or at a nursing facility, yet compensation is awarded based on the location..."
Personal Exoskeleton:
Exoskeleton Arrives, Terminators not Far Behind
Sadly, such items will depend on a huge supply of rare earths for the powerful batteries and motors that will run these things.
Once again, the Chinese will clean up, and we will be screwed.
China Tightens Grip On Rare Minerals - NY Times
It's so
obvious that stuff based on electricity will drive the future. Why the hell did we cede all this stuff to the Chinese?
CR= financial pope.
Nuff said.
RockyR wrote:
There is no way that robotics will create lots of jobs. It will net-on-net be a huge job remover. I'm very optimistic about the future of robotics (not as much for the present form of the human). In fact, I agree with him that the 2020s are going to be big for it.
I've been in the software industry for more than three decades. I don't think that net-on-net I have created a single job on any project. However, I have an excellent (and professionally an oddly proud) record of firing lots of people!
Jonathan wrote:
China has been stocking their pantry with all sorts of materials.
Getting ready for inflation?
Getting ready for trade wars?
Or just playing it safe?
Affiliated Computer Services to hire 190 - Portland Business Journal:
RE wrote:
Yup - if you first go and invent a way back machine to take you back to say 1970... then when the futures comes [say 1990]... you too can have a job of the future in robotics.
FTR: I had buddies putting in robot paint lines at BMW & Daimler in Germany circa 1990.
RE,
right. i said productivity booster. i contend 2020 is too early. look where we've come in the last 10 years of software development: from IE 5 to IE 8? From Windoze 2000 to Windoze 7? In 10 more years we'll have ubiquitous, walking, talking, shopping, robots? hahaha! sorry.
thought experiment for you and me (not to derail the thread): if we could fully automate agriculture production, supply chain fulfillment (logistics), store operations... and a host of other things... what would people really need to do? why is it we feel like we need to "work" in "jobs"? there may be another way to structure a society.
i gotta go.
rosethorn wrote:
I'm certain this is a net gainer....
The Dallas, Texas-based call center outsourcing firm is immediately hiring agents, supervisors and managers to staff its operation at 18277 S.W. Boones Ferry Road in Portland.
Hard to continue after
but I must tread fearlessly.
josap wrote:
A possible scenario was linked to in Prudent Bear earlier. Think dovish Fed on rates, commodities bubble, high effective inflation, houses remain at similar prices nominally but drop in real terms. Wage deflation in real terms. No apocalypse, just a slow grind down.
Basically similar to the UK of the 70's. So in answer, 'all of the above'.
one note on my previous comment: i think it's possible the technology will be in place for walking, talking, shopping robots in 10 years.. but they won't be affordable or ready for mass production. the best computing power joe q public can get his hands on now is in the form or a PS3 (or see my reference to the evolution on windoze over the last 10 years).
/out
Three things to think about wrt the economic future of the US middle class: (1) globalization (wage and regulatory arbitrage), (2) technological efficiency reduces the total available amount of work to be done by humans and (3) the US spends more than it takes in and may be broke (read: insolvent). Hmmm. Hmmm. What could it mean? Will it reverse? Hmmm. Hmmm. Hey, American Idol reruns! Gotta go!
Jonathan wrote:
My understanding is there are mountains of rear earth mineral ores in the US west - just a shortage of people willing to work for a couple dollars a day to dig it out & process it.
RockyR wrote:
I'll just give you the quote from Mauldin. I think you underestimate what is happening in robotics today!
The robotic sessions were led by Dan Barry, a three-time astronaut and veteran of many space station adventures (as well as appearing on Survivor!). What I saw onscreen and heard about has made me rethink my doubts about robotics. There are significant strides being made in mobility and utility in robotics. I saw robots walking on four feet through very difficult terrain, on ice, and up stairs. Robot “hands” are a lot further along than I had thought. Mobile robots on wheels, and walking balanced on two feet, are working today.
The ability of robots to recognize their surroundings, to differentiate between a table and a glass on the table (which is a very difficult thing to program), to pick up the glass, etc. is advancing at a fairly good pace. Dan is an enthusiastic advocate, and it was easy to get infected with his vision, but I can see a robotics industry in the 2020s actually having some significance in the US and world economy.
Economist is David Cutler. (Q % A now -- repeat showing)
"Basically similar to the UK of the 70's. So in answer, 'all of the above'."
when my co-worker graduated in UK in the early 90s he mentioned unemployment being around 20%. Not sure whether that was UK as a whole or just his city. Much of that was long term unemployment.
Our best case scenario is still going to be ugly.
Yes. The article said there were already 1,900 workers at the existing location. I suppose locating a facility in a state with historically higher than average unemployment should imply that there would be a healthy supply of applicants for these jobs.
And yet the military basically cancelled all their major autonomous vehicle projects. I'm sure they're still funding research, but...
As to robotics, check out Alcoa, TN. Alcoa had, IIRC, 30,000 employees in the early 70's at those plants, mostly union. Now, I think it is literally 300. The main plant is automated and replete with robotic carriers, etc. It really is a sight to see. Boy, that robotics and automation thingy sure does create jobs. Of course, the 27,700 that lost their jobs just went on down to Georgia Tech and got engineering degrees so they could design robots to make more robots. Yeah, that's the ticket.
josap wrote:
Epoch Times - U.S., China In Chess Game Over Debt
RE wrote:
That has been available in factories since about 2000 - vision systems coupled to robotic pick and place. Mauldin really needs to get out more - maybe start with something purely 70's-ish like Epcot and go from there.
RE wrote:
the best consumer OS on the market today was written in the 1960s:
Unix
RockyR wrote:
Rocky, I'll be happy to talk about this on one of the slow nights. However, lately I think I hogged some threats with just this talk. At this stage of my life this is the subject I am interested the most outside of taking care of my investments.
Ha, Bert Ely asking question about getting medication after his knee surgery...
Linda Fishman trying to answer ....
Hackman wrote:
Don't have to go as far as Atlanta - there's always Dollywood...
FIRE has won this round. Yeah it sucks and the can has been kicked for another four years. And I agree with commentariat especially 1cny but there it is.*
dryfly wrote:
I believe so. But also a long lead-time to make money, and the environmental activists to contend with.
Though with the coal industry leaving behind terrible human destruction, it is not so hard to understand resistance:
TOXIC WATERS; Clean Water Laws Neglected, at a Cost - NY Times
that sounds great, i just hope you don't work for microsoft
i gotta break this addiction.
tg - there will come a time, shortly, that the USofA is a "to big to fail" and all will be okay.
(okay then)
dryfly wrote:
those aren't robots. of a silcone form, yes...
dryfly wrote:
dryfly, his tech understanding is flat awful across the board. This is why I brought him up in the first place. He has no real understanding and therefore NO vision. I consider him similarly questionable on economics topics. He is a political shill.
Someone from Fidelity asking Otis's Q on why consumer of medical care can't get price data, like you can when buying a car.
Cutler:
"No excuse"
Fishman:
"Try 'Hospital Compare'. CA law [+ PA]says hospital has to publish charges..."
RockyR wrote:
Need a rim shot icon... :ba ding BOOM:
Actually, mining is one of the most automated industries (at least open pit). The main problem is gettin a new mine approved due to environmental/NIMBY concerns.
Outlier wrote:
Four years? I don't think so.
tg wrote:
thanks tg
RE wrote:
Mr Platform Company a political shill? No way...
if you dont get what the effect of human like robots would be on the workforce and wages
think about
what the effect of slavery is on the work that is available and the wages paid to laborers
and if you dont get that
then think about how
illegal immigration and sub minimum wage pay and tough jobs without benefits or work safety rules
affected wages and the unemployment rate
and if you dont get that
then probably you are
a robot
rosethorn wrote:
Yep, and the risks don't end there. I am still steeped in a few high risk (high reward?) gold juniors that are getting close to build a mine... I hope.
dryfly wrote:
Uhh that pegs him!!
More burdensome do-gooder liberal regulation interfering with a hospital's legitimate business profits...
mock turtle, that was very nice. our faux capitalist democracy moves from slavery to illegal immigration to outsourcing to robots to soylent green. there, I think that closes the loop. efficiency is always the answer, isn't it? oh, wait a minute, isn't there something about enjoying the journey -- ah, nevermind, the French already have that job.
mock,
What has to happen is that the wealth generated by increased productivity from robotics has to be redistributed to all members of society. Although ironically a lot of the capital for these advancements is provided by pension funds. So workers may be sowing the seeds of their own economic destruction by shooting for big returns on their retirements.
Hackman
exactly
and thinking about the french enjoying life...joi de vive and all that, reminds kme
i can just guess some enterprising group of men will invent a fully functioning female android
and then think of all the unemployment that will cause
Meh. They're just sick people. Not like you and me. So it's all good as most of the hospitals are "not-for-profit".
rosethorn, maybe those workers (through their pension investments) are sowing the seeds of economic destruction of their progeny. maybe that is the whole point of "progress" -- dominate nature, get leisure time. in this day and age we certainly have a lot more leisure time on average than any others before us (something about idle hands and the devil's workshop).
rosethorn wrote:
More performance artists...
TJ and The Bear wrote:
My guess is 2 yrs at most.
The RE crash can't be fixed and isn't over.
UE increases aren't over.
Banks are still in deep trouble.
None of the underlying issues have been fixed. Propped up yes, fixed - no.
Only after the cause is worked through, repaired, fixed, whatever, will we be able to become stable or start upward again. One big question is where is the real bottom and what does up look like from there?
rosethorn
sure, true
but where and when have we ever seen that kind of "sharing" on the face of the planet
the elite will wall themselves off, own the best resources, and most of it
and defend it with their droids...its coming unless.....
mock turtle wrote:
You forgot "and extremely skilled not to mention upgradable..."
About 90% of hospitals in the US are "non-profit"...although that just means that management can focus on empire building. Every other piece of the health care system is absolutely for profit: doctors, RN's, pharma, labs, med device manufacturers.
Big Yawn...
RE wrote:
Lots of app sales.
josap wrote:
LOL Good reasons for dryfly not to yawn.
Let's go off-topic...
defaulted-loans-may-haunt-seniors: Personal Finance News from Yahoo! Finance
rosethorn I haven't heard back yet from IRA. (They responded to a previous inquiry) Very disappointing (along the lines of the last CR thread) but it was a guestpost...
Nah. Start just bring up horizontal and vertical CNC cells and watch his eyes light up.
yes extremely skilled and upgradeable
and they dont sleep
but i have to
good nite
Financial Armageddon: A Bit More Light-Hearted
Is The Federal Reserve Insolvent? | zero hedge
The UK of the 70's. At least that led to the Clash. I'd send the country into the toilet to get rid of gangsta rap.
Almost forgot:
End the Fed.
Securitization is ponzi.
Open source currenc[ies] now.
Yep, looking forward to a resurgence of punk!
YouTube - The Buzzcocks - Nostalgia 16 Jan 09
YouTube - Buzzcocks-Sixteen Again
Follow Up to Some Praise for the Fed:
This is Jim Sinclair's response to the same Fed Reserve comment by Sack:
Jim sees the world so differently from CR. As CR has been middle of the road, and that didn't turn out too well over the past 4 years I've been dropping by here, and JS has been literally dead on, I'm now confused as to which I should believe.
As for me, I believe the FedRes doesn't have a chance in the face of the crushed debt and vanished equity value which could pillar that debt. From JSmineset.com, today:
"Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
Factor this article into today’s assumption that the Fed was going reverse repo with the money market funds to drain excess liquidity.
Note the attention today of the Fed’s Sack to the important concept when discussing the sale of the junk the banks stuck the Fed with and how it "should limit any uptick in interest rates from the sales."
Today the Fed MOPEs about draining excess liquidity via reverse repos. If this was enacted it would send interest rates soaring regardless of the economic condition when initiated.
Another interesting point to consider is that if you add all the cash of all money funds together, less losses on inventory, there isn’t enough money there if you used reverse repos to drain the trillions in excess liquidity. Despite this fact, both professionals and public alike buy this illogical propaganda and run with it, making so many gold people question their commitment."
More regulatory slippage:
British banks given a year's grace on liquidity - Telegraph
Lord make me chaste, but not yet!
Ah, Pete Shelley!
"Elizabeth Warren, Chair of the Congressional Oversight panel over TARP, says that we have a serious problem with commercial real estate and it’s going to affect a significant number of banks."
"The largest loan losses are projected for 2011 and beyond, but the stress tests conducted on big Wall Street banks last year examined their stability only through 2010."
link: http://www.shtfplan.com/headline-news/chair-of-tarp-oversight-i-am-afraid_03082010
I hope we've got this 'praise for then Fed' stuff out of our system and can get back to real-world stuff.