My son is on the front lines - working retail at Mall Of America... his report last night was that it was insane in the early morning hours as first wave shoppers stormed the special discounts... but by noon it had slowed to just regular 'weekend traffic'.
He was told by management to expect today (Sat) and Sunday to be much busier from start-to-close.
dryfly, I've seen stories that Black Friday was great - and stories suggesting sales were disappointing. The Wal-Mart news is the first hard data suggesting retail sales in November were weak, of course Wal-Mart was expected to be weak and had a tough comparison (last November was very strong).
Also, retail sales appeared weak in October, until CPI came in negative - meaning real retail sales were OK for October. I don't think that will happen again in November because gasoline prices have stabilized and the mean CPI is still running around 3.5%.
Thanks for relating your son's experience. I bet that was common - a rush in the AM, and then slowing down. Black Friday isn't that big of a deal anymore.
I walked into Fry's (3.7 mi away, dangerous!) at 6:15AM and proceeded to get every item in my list except a DVD "Terminator 3." I even got the Nintendo DS bundle. Apparently the line was 1200-1500 long at 4:15AM for the 5:00AM opening. $700.51 later I'm busy filling out my rebates; approx $350. So I got an honest $1100 of "stuff for 70% off. $99 19" LCD DVI monitors? I don't understand how they could deliver empty boxes and do the paperwork for that. Mrs. Techscan (who reported the 4:15 line) did Target (pronounced Tharjhay) and Kohls and later; Lowes. All were heavy but not bad and the purchases tended to the loss leaders and moderate items. I got a great 4ft fiberglass step ladder ($34) and a new 18v battery and charger. Again, they aren't making much money on these.
Wierdest Black Friday moment? This morning (Sat) buying plumbing parts at Home Depot. End of the aisle; they are selling 42" Plasma HDTVs.
I went to Costco to buy a dig camera with a coupon they have been giving out before the sale. They opened at 9 and I was there about 10:30. Absolutely no problem finding parking and the floor was easily managable.
I talked to a friend who works at a box retailer who told me that black friday wasn't as bad as years past. The TV stations want to hype it up but I think sales are down this year.
" The TV stations want to hype it up but I think sales are down this year."
Hmmm, I would be stunned if sales were down. My guess is that sales growth probably slowed. I do agree that it seems like the TV stations are hyping it. Always easier to report commotion than as of yet mostly unavailable data. Let's wait and see.
Wal-Mart being important because that's where America Retail is. Sorta like the F150 being the item to watch and not the beamers or bennies.
Could be the hi-end or higher-end retail will make an impression against the Wal-Mart forecast --like the reported recent increase in wages might be significant and express themselves by...making house purchases? Ok, too big a jump...making another new car purchase from GM before those incentives expire?...Ok, only to be replaced by others maybe more generous.
Dr Duy figures Wal-Mart's troubles are merely that company's problems as it copes with a saturated market --not signs of consumer exhaustion. Target's problems too then? The low end retail industry's problem?
We'll have to wait and see.
the most important lesson of the past couple of years is that there are lots of gift cards purchased that don't get "cashed in" until january or later, which contributes to the increasing meaninglessness of poring over the daily sales charts.
although it is anecdotal, i'm fascinated by robert cote's experience: it suggests that the more interesting question this time around isn't the level of sales but the level of retail profitability....
Has Black Friday gotten so overhyped that a lot of people now avoid it? I was at a local mall Friday afternoon and it wasn't very busy. I suspect the weekend before Christmas will be worse.
dryfly: I overheard colleagues at work talking about certain Friday morning sales at this or that store. I imagine the big morning rush was specifically for those.
Me, I'm suffering (?) from chronic shopping fatigue, so I'm an outside observer in all this.
I think a lot of people have figured out the Black Friday "scam".
You have to be fool enough to line up in the pre-dawn hours if you want to get one of the hyped super specials. But quantities are very limited on the most advertised items. So many people who are not willing to join the frenzied rush at the opening bell have decided there simply isn't any point in shopping that day.
All the focus on the loss leader specials may turn out to be counter productive. I think a lot of people decided to skip the Black Friday madness and just wait until the real sales fire up just before Xmas.
Anecdotal Report:
My son is on the front lines - working retail at Mall Of America... his report last night was that it was insane in the early morning hours as first wave shoppers stormed the special discounts... but by noon it had slowed to just regular 'weekend traffic'.
He was told by management to expect today (Sat) and Sunday to be much busier from start-to-close.
We'll see.
dryfly, I've seen stories that Black Friday was great - and stories suggesting sales were disappointing. The Wal-Mart news is the first hard data suggesting retail sales in November were weak, of course Wal-Mart was expected to be weak and had a tough comparison (last November was very strong).
Also, retail sales appeared weak in October, until CPI came in negative - meaning real retail sales were OK for October. I don't think that will happen again in November because gasoline prices have stabilized and the mean CPI is still running around 3.5%.
Thanks for relating your son's experience. I bet that was common - a rush in the AM, and then slowing down. Black Friday isn't that big of a deal anymore.
Best Wishes.
I walked into Fry's (3.7 mi away, dangerous!) at 6:15AM and proceeded to get every item in my list except a DVD "Terminator 3." I even got the Nintendo DS bundle. Apparently the line was 1200-1500 long at 4:15AM for the 5:00AM opening. $700.51 later I'm busy filling out my rebates; approx $350. So I got an honest $1100 of "stuff for 70% off. $99 19" LCD DVI monitors? I don't understand how they could deliver empty boxes and do the paperwork for that. Mrs. Techscan (who reported the 4:15 line) did Target (pronounced Tharjhay) and Kohls and later; Lowes. All were heavy but not bad and the purchases tended to the loss leaders and moderate items. I got a great 4ft fiberglass step ladder ($34) and a new 18v battery and charger. Again, they aren't making much money on these.
Wierdest Black Friday moment? This morning (Sat) buying plumbing parts at Home Depot. End of the aisle; they are selling 42" Plasma HDTVs.
I went to Costco to buy a dig camera with a coupon they have been giving out before the sale. They opened at 9 and I was there about 10:30. Absolutely no problem finding parking and the floor was easily managable.
I talked to a friend who works at a box retailer who told me that black friday wasn't as bad as years past. The TV stations want to hype it up but I think sales are down this year.
I have a bad feeling about this.
" The TV stations want to hype it up but I think sales are down this year."
Hmmm, I would be stunned if sales were down. My guess is that sales growth probably slowed. I do agree that it seems like the TV stations are hyping it. Always easier to report commotion than as of yet mostly unavailable data. Let's wait and see.
Wal-Mart being important because that's where America Retail is. Sorta like the F150 being the item to watch and not the beamers or bennies.
Could be the hi-end or higher-end retail will make an impression against the Wal-Mart forecast --like the reported recent increase in wages might be significant and express themselves by...making house purchases? Ok, too big a jump...making another new car purchase from GM before those incentives expire?...Ok, only to be replaced by others maybe more generous.
Dr Duy figures Wal-Mart's troubles are merely that company's problems as it copes with a saturated market --not signs of consumer exhaustion. Target's problems too then? The low end retail industry's problem?
We'll have to wait and see.
Black Friday Sales Up 6 Percent Over '05
My Way - Money
the most important lesson of the past couple of years is that there are lots of gift cards purchased that don't get "cashed in" until january or later, which contributes to the increasing meaninglessness of poring over the daily sales charts.
although it is anecdotal, i'm fascinated by robert cote's experience: it suggests that the more interesting question this time around isn't the level of sales but the level of retail profitability....
Kevin, you beat me to it!
Best to all.
Has Black Friday gotten so overhyped that a lot of people now avoid it? I was at a local mall Friday afternoon and it wasn't very busy. I suspect the weekend before Christmas will be worse.
Sales up 6%. But since many stores opened Midnight, Thursday could some or all of this be attributed to longer retail hours?
dryfly: I overheard colleagues at work talking about certain Friday morning sales at this or that store. I imagine the big morning rush was specifically for those.
Me, I'm suffering (?) from chronic shopping fatigue, so I'm an outside observer in all this.
As for the TV hype, I'd think it's just the regular sensationalism. But who knows, maybe there are other interests too.
Me, I'm suffering (?) from chronic shopping fatigue, so I'm an outside observer in all this.
Me? I ate leftovers and went and watched college hockey games... positively unamerican!
I think a lot of people have figured out the Black Friday "scam".
You have to be fool enough to line up in the pre-dawn hours if you want to get one of the hyped super specials. But quantities are very limited on the most advertised items. So many people who are not willing to join the frenzied rush at the opening bell have decided there simply isn't any point in shopping that day.
All the focus on the loss leader specials may turn out to be counter productive. I think a lot of people decided to skip the Black Friday madness and just wait until the real sales fire up just before Xmas.