I'll wait for the inevitable 3 revisions. Remember also that Walmart, Target, Costco, Sam's Club, Home Depot, Lowes, and many more are not mall based reatial stores. I also cannot even come close to believing their reporting this figure to 3 significant digits. 6% could mean the stores were open just an hour longer than last year as well.
The consumer is not going to stop until the credit cards and the home equity runs out another 2-3 years.
I would have thought they could see the housing slowdown and start to save but I think that most do not even have a clue about what is going on around them, especially economics. They think that ultimately housing will continue up in the next year or so.
I have alot of friends who have bought 1-3 million dollar houses on interest only who think that they will be worth
3-6 million in 10 years. This is their retirement fund and why they do not save.
How about "Well the herd is well managed on day 1, but what about the weeks ahead?"?
Or "Sales volume may only represent loss leaders as companies more than last year (more than 6 percent more) need the cash flow."?
Or "Sales volume was up only because the electronic widgets (the plasma TVs etc) were just bigger items."?
Or "More people feel 6 percent more confident since the election result."?
Or "Across the nation, shopping conditions (not to mention blanket advertising) were 6% more effective/congenial: it was just better shopping weather."?
Robert Coté: It doesn't matter where the 6% come from. Whether it's from longer hours, more customers, higher prices, or whatever, it's an aggregate 6% more money out of people's pockets (or more likely 6% more added to the tab). If the 6% figure holds water that is.
"charts" correctly opines upon my previous comment:
"6% could mean the stores were open just an hour longer than last year as well."
Rob, I know you mean well, but you're grasping here, buddy. They cover 41,000 mall stores.
No, think about it. There were even midnight openings. In particular the Westfield Shops Camarillo Premium Outlet Mall near me. They certainly were open more hours than last year. And don't tell me it doesn't make a difference. We have the same problem comparing month to month and year to year because of more Fridays or holidays or whatever. One day in a month -> 3%. One hour 13 to 14 -> more than 6%. If the hours didn't matter why does near every store schedule extended holiday hours? Why not be open 4 intense hours and save on overtime and personell costs, etc?
I only mildly asserted that hours could have contributeed but it was hardly reaching.
ShopperTrak RTC measures foot traffic, and doesn't have access to retailer computers and sales data. They install 45K videos at various retailers. We don't really know what sales are - we only kow that foot traffic was up 6%. Bloomberg didn't even include the sentence "vs last year", so I wasn't sure 6% compared to what... They probably estimate sales based on foot traffic.
However, with Walmart reporting a disappointing Saturday, I will reserve any judgment on sales until the data is released. Higher foot traffic could mean higher sales, but it could also mean more people out looking for bargains. Who knows what all those people ended up buying?
Exactly, cm. 6% growth is what we should expect from a slowing economy that's seen sales growth off by 2% YOY each of the past two months.
Last year November ex-auto sales grew at a huge 8.34% YOY clip. If we lop off 2%, we get...6%! Not that far off from what the ShopperTrak data is telling us. They probably have it right, more or less.
We can start to worry if we see the monthly ex-auto sales dipping into the 2% YOY growth range. That's pre-recessionary stuff.
If you're correct, then this is one of the most misleading stories I've seen. In any event, your advice about reserving judgment until more complete numbers are available is undoubtedly appropriate.
i'm going to repeat something from the other thread: if there's one thing we should have learned from the past two years, it's that a good chunk of holiday sales will be deferred in the form of gift cards, and not recognized as revenue until january or later....
in short, i don't think poring over the daily sales numbers is as revealing as it once was....
6% more feet does not necessarily mean 6% more sales. If wallmart is doing badly everyone else is probably too. Wallmart absorbs as much as 20% of chinas exports.
"..derived from the U.S. Commerce Department's GAFO (general merchandise, apparel, furniture, sporting goods, electronics, hobby, books and other related store sales) statistic, as well as ShopperTrak's proprietary industry intelligence on shopper movement and sales statistics."
This congrues pretty well with government data. Nominal retail sales the last couple months were up in the 5% range YoY, real sales in the 2-3% range. Foot traffic up 2%, prices up, and voila, 6% is perfectly normal.
I don't really see even a 3% real increase as surprisingly strong, but then I don't think the economy is showing any too-disturbing strains -- yet. For now, don't bet against the consumer until you see the whites of his eyes.
I second wcw - I put my foot in my mouth a couple days ago in the comment section on Thoma's site and said I thought holiday sales will do just fine this year and beat 'expectations'.
And I'm not saying everything is A-OK in Bedford Falls... its just that until moral hazard is re-established as more than a quaint old fashioned notion... either that or liquidity really does dry up (as in those foreigners stop buying the MBS & 10 yrs)... this thing can run on a whole lot longer.
It's the liquidity, stupid.
I mean how many credit card offers do you get a week? I get about a dozen.
How often do you get asked if you want a store's credit card when you pass through check out? I get it every time I shop anywhere.
We all see the cracks - it just hasn't crumbled yet. Won't anytime too soon... but when it does it will make a big ol'mess. Count on it.
I'm generally very bearish, but I'm also beginning to seriously question the ability of some of this site's regulars to treat data objectively.
so what if shoppertrak only records foot traffic? the question is, does YOY growth foot traffic typically mirror YOY sales growth? lo and behold, it typically does. there's nothing misleading about the shoppertrak data.
web sales aren't down. they grew YOY at 12%. what's down is the YOY growth rate, which was 27% a year ago.
so relax, we're not in a recession yet. the data points to that fact that we may be heading down that path, what with the declining growth rates and all, but we having arrived in recessionville yet.
The local Kohl's store in Manchester CT was packed Friday- the traffic was backed up onto the streets at the entrance. Yesterday it was seeing more activity then an average Saturday- but not nearly as crowded as the day before. Empty parking spaces.
I do expect only the most low-end retailers, like Walmart and Target to be hit. People below median income are already hit by housing bubble.
The average and above retailers must be ok, because upper-middle class is not hit by the bubble, it is well employeed and is expecting good bonuses.... (I finally must get over 35k bonus this year, damn it!)
"When does it all end..."
John Diehl | 11.26.06 - 1:22 am
IT ENDS HERE, JOHN, AND IT ENDS VERY BADLY. Just because people can buy something, doesn't mean that they can pay for it. This is what happens, when a whole community lives a lifestyle that out-stips its means:
"CHICAGO – November 25, 2006 – ShopperTrak RCT Corporation's National Retail Sales Estimate (NRSE) today reported that the 2006 holiday retail season got off to a relatively strong start as compared to 2005 with the season's first major shopping day, Black Friday, increasing 6.0 percent. Preliminary sales estimated at a daily rate for Black Friday totaled $8.96 billion or $8,955 million."
So this is a "preliminary sales estimation". What is it based on?
"Why Measuring Black Friday Traffic is Mission Critical for Retailers
At no time during the year is traffic monitoring more important than on Black Friday, one of the biggest shopping days of the year. "
And on another news site I read that they have around 40000 video cameras tracking the traffic. Now, Wal-Mart also said that they had big crowds, but small sales. So traffic was large, but people didn't buy as much on the average as before. Here's the news:
So if ShopperTrak's premilinary sales estimated is mostly (alone?) based on foot traffic at this point, there is a good chance they need to review it downwards later with actual sales figures in hand. Not necessarily, but it's just that I wouldn't trust this report at this point, especially given Wal-Mart's own report, which could explain it.
I wouldn't get too excited about it one way or another. Waiting for the consumer to spend less is a Chinese Water Torture, it's just not worth it.
Consumers always lag, they won't cut back UNTIL we're in recession, i.e., until they're told to cut back. AND additionally when they really are hurting. Collectively they're going to be dragged by their Macy's bags kicking and screaming to the save-fest, all the while searching their wallet for another credit card to max out.
It's started already with the bottom quintiles who shop at Wall-Mart. The rest actually have some money they can still tap, so I expect it'll take a while.
Kudos to you CR for immediately bringing data that supports moderating growth and not a meltdown into the mix! It makes your work that much more credible!!
Unfortunately, the kneejerk reaction some members here are expressing reveals a huge biad on their part. It's hard for me to take them seriously now. The first inclination of some of the posters here is to immediately attack the data and imagine ways to undermine the methodology, rather than really examine - scientifically - if the data has a decent probably of being right or wrong as a figure for retail sales.
A real scientist begins by testing the hypothesis that the recent data is wrong: If the "traffic" data were in fact illegitmate or vulnerable to huge revisions etc, than it would history of deviations with actual Fed retails sales numbers. There are examples of this, like how the ADP jobless claims report often deviates greatly from the BLS numbers.
Guess what? Historically, the "traffic" numbers don't deviate much from the retail sales numbers reported at the Fed (over the last 6 months or so, the traffic numbers have averaged about .3% greater than Fed retail ex-food numbers).
So really, there's nothing to see here. Save for walmart, black friday wasn't a complete failure, and there aren't going to be serious downward revisions from the data that was presented by shoppertrak. The ruminations about big downward revisions, not being able to trust the data etc...those are all inventions, figments of bias.
A 6% rate of growth reflects a slowing economy relative to last year's 8.7% YoY clip. 6% is by no means gangbusters. We won't see ugly YoY numbers like 2% until we're actually in a recession, which won't come until after job losses and a spike in unemployment. This is probably coming very soon, but we're not there yet - so please, save the attacks on this data for black friday circa 2007, if we get serious job losses and retail is still posting 6% gains.
I feel shameless invoking the twisted Larry Kudlow, who I find the most base of cheerleaders. But to his credit, he dubbed those who can only see the economy in an apocolyptic light as members of "the cult of the bear". While the bear case is strong in many regards and a recession more likely than not, some posters here are certified cult members, in serious need of a reality check. The bias isn't healthy.
Guys, the industry always reports a great start to the holiday season. Remember last years headlines? HUGE increases reported. Thay all fizzled out to nothing. It's the same game year after year.
Enormous discounts and heavy advertising of them is driving up foot traffic. If the industry wants to cannabalize itself like the auto industry does with this, why are we getting all pushed out of shape? Besides it is one extremely early datapoint, that's all.
until moral hazard is re-established as more than a quaint old fashioned notion... either that or liquidity really does dry up (as in those foreigners stop buying the MBS & 10 yrs)... this thing can run on a whole lot longer.
It's the liquidity, stupid.
I mean how many credit card offers do you get a week? I get about a dozen.
How often do you get asked if you want a store's credit card when you pass through check out? I get it every time I shop anywhere.
We all see the cracks - it just hasn't crumbled yet. Won't anytime too soon... but when it does it will make a big ol'mess. Count on it.
"Remember last years headlines? HUGE increases reported. Thay all fizzled out to nothing. It's the same game year after year"
When you have a chance, please check the St. Louis Fed's retail YoY sales figures for Nov and Dec 2005. Checking them gives you a chance to amend your comment so that it's more truthful, because I don't think your post is based on fact but rather imagination. Hint: there actually were big increases last year.
Oh, and an aside: last year's comparable ShopperTrak Black-Friday press release showed a small decrease, which I believe they later had to revise up. My memory could be failing me here, but I am pretty sure nobody last year was touting a big Black Friday haul. Katrina was less than a quarter past then, and I think it showed.
I know you want to look on the bright side "charts" but youve totally forgotten a few things it seems.
First, judging purchasing power and how good a christmas sales you are going to have just by measuring foot traffic yoy on the one day after thanksgiving misses a major issue. This is THE sale day of the year, so increased traffic can actually mean that weaker sales are ahead, as people try to cram in their shopping early to get the sales they desperately need because of lack of spending power.
That alone, combined with foot traffic being majorly influenced by available store hours means this data point, without context, is almost meaningless.
Yes, in the past, foot traffic has been a good variable to use to estimate sales, but that doesnt mean that much when you have a situation which has enough variables to make it a good candidate for one of the years when that variable misses badly.
While I agree there is a lot of bearish sentiment here, and a lot of posts seem to want to cheer on bad news or find bad news in ambiguous information, for now, we are probably in a wait and see situation.
That said, 6% yoy means there is likely no calamity ahead immediately, but dont get too cheerful that this is a big deal and holiday sales are saved.
and btw, it DOES matter where that 6% came from. Sales are often pushed forward by promotions, and everyone seems to know that promos are early this year.
I still hold to the idea that capitalism is dead and we have not realized it now.
But to some practical things. There is no moral hazard to debt, so the rational (if counter intuitive to the old paradigm) response to to consider it just like income. In fact it is better than income, because you can write it down, say buy your honey a diamond ring and then not pay for a year and then pay the collection company 50 cents on the dollar or less. Or you put down nothing on a house, get a 125% mortgage, walk away with cash and then get up to a year free rent. And so on.
Is it liquidity or has capitalism run its course and the new way of governments and central banks the "New Way". Is it liquidity or has big money lost its value because so much of it is sloshing around and no where to put it because the governments are distorting things in a way they could not since the rise of capitalism.
Will the moral hazard of the housing bubble dry up the liquidity or is there so much sloshing around that the losers will lose but the money has to be invested somewhere if only in funny paper.
Of course the answer is not capitalism, but high taxes on high assets and income to break up the concentration. But the political way is no there yet.
Sales is another issue, All that neat electronics was heavily discounted. Now did the folks make a profit. Assuming that Walmart is well managed, had very good reporting software. Assume that Walmart is reputed to be well ahead of everyone else in information tech--then there had be a better reason for them to be pessimistic than folks shopping at Target.
What's that "charts"? You criticized strongly other writers here being too bearish, being not researching as they should etc., while what the thing was about was that since Wal-Mart did report strong traffic AND weak sales and at this point ShopperTrack's report is based mostly on traffic numbers, it is a premilinary report.
So get easy for a while and let's wait for the results. That's what people said here, let's wait.
too early to say if this yr retail sale would be ok...prelim data seems fine but THXgiving volume has been hyped for quite some time..The data around xmas will clinch it for good. i expect it to be tepid as high priced items has nice discounts this time around (eg 42" plasma at almost 25% (~$300) discount!)That will eat into 2007 sales to say the least.
A bit from the San Francisco Chronicle business section this Am
regarding credit card spending:
According to the center, average household debt levels topped average after-tax income by more than 29 percent as of this summer. Moreover, the average family is now spending 14.4 percent of its disposable income on debt repayments -- the largest share since the Fed began collecting such data in 1980.
"This is an unsustainable trend," said Christian Weller, senior economist at the center. "People simply can't borrow at the same rate they've borrowed in the past."
According to the Fed, total consumer credit debt, excluding mortgages, hit a record $2.4 trillion in September. Factoring in mortgages, outstanding household debt soars to about $12.3 trillion.
I distrust the "data" here because of a bias. Not my bias but the industry, media and systemic biases that we are observing. Initial reports of Holiday sales have been optimistic for the last 4 or more years. Last year only a little, 2003 a real lot IIRC.
It is a gross mischaracterization to describe these repondents general skeptism as "huge bias." The Walmart same store data and the ShopperTrak data are at odds for but one reason to question such a rosy prediction.
This year has an extra weekend that will "save" the season no matter what the condition of the general economy or tapped out consumer may be. Additionally IMO no matter where the data fall hedonist adjustments are going to cloud any final conclusions.
I have no criticism with bearish arguments. I'm far from bullish and hold substantial short positions.
That said, I criticize the attempts by posters here to immediatly try to discredit the data because they were expecting very weak numbers.
Agreed that projecting Xmas sales off of one black friday makes little sense. the gripe is that the the historically the traffic numbers tend to match sales pretty well, but some ppl here just won't buy that sales growth is remarkeably average - and are immediately spinning the numbers like a bunch of reverse kudlows. That sort of commentary sullies a great blog.
I think the mere appearance of the word "kudlow" in your posts 'charts' is enough to raise the hackles of those "biased" (and kudos to the gods for that typo "biad") posters we (you and me) want to bring into line.
These biased posters are so sensitive, I know I'm going to get clobbered just for mentioning you and Kudlow --no matter whether I thought either they were 'scientific', 'biased' or worse 'right on the money'.
Following wcw's note about Katrina and that last year's baseline might be less than representative, do we need also to account for increasing population? falling dollar? median $size of purchased item? dollars spent on promotion? brought forward sales?
I do appreciate bob who brings to light (for me anyhow) the idea of 'being above/below the bubble' (~the image of a bubble on a table, not one floating in the air) and one's place in America's Dream/Nightmare, home ownership.
I'm not saying that the 6% increase is wrong -- because I can know that for sure. But I think it is highly suspect given that Wallmart is reporting worst performace in a decade. Also i would guess that sales = traffic * conversion rate. Traffic is up, but conversion rate could be down (we dont know this for sure). If the conversion rate is the same as last year than there must be a problem specific to Wallmart.
My money is on weaker to flat holiday sales this year.
Regarding credit card debt, be careful this holiday season. I noted in my recent Citibank bill that I won't be receiving my next "monthly" statement until late December.
If the same thing happens with you, don't let this give you a false impression of new found wealth. The credit card companies are counting on people spending past their budgets so that they won't have the cabbage to pay their balance in full when it finally comes due. Thus starting erstwhile responsible borrowers down the slope of accumulating interest payments.
FWIW, I have an eyeball test (actually, set of tests) I use most years which seems to work for answering whether it's going to be good, bad, or middlin' for retailers. Over the past decade it's been pretty good, so I'll share.
About 4 or 5 in the afternoon of Black Friday, I wander through Walmart, Best Buy, and the mall. I'm looking at two things. First, what's parking like? Second, what are the shelves like?
On the first, a parking lot that's only about a third full (or less) is bad. More than 2/3 is good.
On the second, I'm looking to see if there are lots of things on the shelves. A "good" sales meant that the loss leaders had a lot of people also buying other things. So the more empty spots the better. If the shelves look 'normal', there's a problem. Oh, and every time I discover something that was in the sales catalog still in the store, it's troubling.
I repeat the parking lot test over the next couple of weeks for verification.
Now, I saw what the lines were like for two stores locally. I had to drive by them at 2 in the morning - and lines down the sidewalk and to the back of the building is definitely "Long". I expect the mobs were furious that morning.
But when I went to all three of my tests, the parking lots ranged from a quarter to half full - nominally averaging that 1/3 trigger. And wandering through... Walmart had a few empty spots in electronics and toys, but that was about it. Best Buy had TWO of its catalog items still in stock. The mall stores looked like they were still well stocked.
At this point, I'm expecting no better than mediocre when all the measuring is done, and most likely a poor retail season.
Yes, it's anecdotal. It's a local fuzzy test extrapolated to national results. But it seems to have worked in the past, and so I'm sharing.
BTW I always have a bias when looking at individual stats. The imporant thing is the big picture. The economy is definitely softening. An uptick in mall foot traffic is not going to change my mind about that.
Is it really that crazy to bet againt the consumer at this point? I think not. The consumer has been getting money from two sources: housing equity, and government deficit spending. Both of these are being taken away. I think the outcome is pretty obvious.
Of course there are those who say that job growth has been strong and that will support the consumer and the economy. But where do the jobs really come from? Well -- either its a bridge-to-nowhere project -- or big american businesses are highring to improve distribution and sales for their chinese made products.
So maybe -- maybe -- there are more shoppers as perhaps the level of employment is higher than last year. Is that going to save the economy from a major downturn?
Roert Coté, Patriot, Geoff: When I said it doesn't matter where the 6% come from, I meant that assuming for the time being the 6% holds water (or whatever the number will turn out to be otherwise), it should be of little consequence how the stores managed to engineer the revenue. They will employ all measures at their disposal to move product, be it hype, "discounts" (from "regular" prices designed with the discount figured in), or longer hours.
At the end of the day, customers parted with 6% more currency/debt obligations than last year.
Whether this will mean the end of the rope is going to be reached earlier or it's a genuine and sustained uptick in sales the future will show. It depends majorly on whether the credit spigot remains wide open.
charts: Fair enough, but don't forget that indicators tend to decorrelate with what they are supposed to measure/indicate, or what they are meant to imply, roughly to the degree they are used to "manage" the underlying reality, or perceptions thereof.
For example, do you believe that today's 4.4% unemployment mean the same as 4.4% say 10, 20, or 30 years ago?
me, I'm just looking for some clarity in a confusing world.
Interesting discussion - heated is not bad as long as it isn't personal and I didn't think it went over the top.
I still think this season is going to surprise to the upside... reasons are as follows...
(1) the liquidity spigot still hasn't been turned off. Credit cards are the 'new MEW' - until all available options of credit are constrained or exhausted this will continue. The supposed recent slowing of MEW won't offer much of a head wind in the short term.
(2) Hype - there has been so much 'bubble news & recession talk' on MSM lately I feel expectations have been greatly lowered - beating expectations won't be all that hard. Think of it as the Roubini effect.
I'll go out on another limb - I'll guess right now that 4Q GDP comes in at an annualized rate approx. 3% or more... WAY OVER expectation.
Reason? The stronger consumption recorded from holiday sales - as you all know consumption is something like 70-80% of GDP.
BTW - I do not think everything is A-OK... I said that above... its just that the numbers can be goofy even without gov't & trade insiders intensionally cooking them. That's why I don't think you can look at the numbers alone but rather look for them to give hints at what is happening - then look deeper.
Fundamentals ultimately drive long term results but short term technicals can really confound simplistic assumptions about the 'long term'.
Judgment is using rational thought to tease through conflicting data. If it was easy we'd all have Nobel Prizes and a house next door to Warren. I have neither.
dryfly:
a 3% GDP would crush the market..LOL
no chance of a rate decrease and only add fuel to the inflation camp on the the Fed board. the dollar would go Zoommmmm up and those shorting the dollar would be meeting the margin man up close and personal!
I agree with all of it... except it won't happen this quarter.
I believe people will buy this holiday season... call it blindness, or stubbornness, or hope... but I just don't feel the wheels will fall off this quarter.
Not until CC companies start constraining their exposures... and with a huge holiday season & slowing growth going forward they just might... one of those fear & greed things. Right now, with X-Mas just around the corner... greed rules. Its the American way... January is the start of the 'fear' season.
At the beginning of 2006, I took the same position on housing that you're taking on retail sales/recession for the very same reasons: way too many bears, MSM full of doom and gloom, liquidity will overcome everything else, etc., etc. It turned out not to be a very smart call. :>(
An interesting thing I note in comparison to last year is that although the average expenditure is up (from 304 to 360), the number of shoppers is down (from 145 million to 140 million). The increase overcomes the decrease, but it's still telling, I think.
I also find it interesting - suggestive, even - that the attendance of men in the shopping numbers is HUGE in comparison to last year. And men spent ~$420 vs women's $304 average. They spent it mostly (39.5%) on electronics and (49.2%) on books, CDs, DVDs, Videos and video games. Connecting this with other things, my impression is:
Men were the doorbuster targets, and it worked for this weekend. But if the rest of the shopping season returns to normal "who is buying" patterns, then we'll see a major decrease in both number of shoppers and amount they're spending.
cm,
The where the 6% comes from is important. Here's my Fry's list from Black Friday:
500w power supply. $0
ATX case w/power supply. $0
19" LCD monitor. $99
exVGA Graphics card. $0
iPod minispeakers. $0
512Mb thumbdrive. $0
10pk DVD cases. $0
50pk DVD-R. $2.99
10pk DVD+R $2.99
Total; $105. Total charged to credit card before rebates; $368. Any questions about whether the "where the 6% increase is coming from" is important?
Now, now, charts. This 19% YOY increase doesn't quite tell the whole story, now does it?
Of those who actually shopped during the 4 day weekend, it's being surmised that each shopper spent, on average, $360.15, a 19% increase over last years average of $302.81.
However, the total number of shoppers fell 5 million, YOY.
Also, a research firm provides some flavor for those digesting the sales data:
"Shoppers limited much of their spending to sale items such as Wal-Mart Stores Inc.'s $997 37-inch LCD TV and Sears Holding Corp.'s discounted jewelry and toys, said consultant Howard Davidowitz. Retailers count on the last quarter of the year to generate one-third of their annual profits.
It was shocking because people were only buying doorbusters,'' said Davidowitz, chairman of Davidowitz & Associates. Employees with his New York-based consulting and investment-banking firm visited 50 retailers over the weekend.You can't have people just come in and buy doorbusters and leave.''"
Not a promising indication of where the retailers' margins may be heading.
winjr, my only reason to post that was to poor cold water on the game some posters were playing that the very mild 6% YoY sales growth was inconceivable. i have my doubts that sales will be up 19%, but i also doubt that they'll go negative a la walmart.
America has demonstrated repeatedly a lack of self control in consumer spending along with an insatiable dietary intake (supersize me) in junk food, the need to trade in a leased imported car every two years to park in the drive way of their toxic-loan financed mansion. Why would black Friday be any different? This thing is going to default, first by the consumer, then the low level banks and followed up by larger institutions until we have a full fledged credit collapse.
Greg in DC
Robert Coté: I don't know, maybe we are talking at cross purposes. How many hours did you need to collect your items (as you were suggesting higher sales may come from longer opening times)?
So you managed to snatch a number of items at deep discount. I didn't see any plasma TV, game console, or whatever is supposed to be the big hit this year among your booty.
How stores attain the nominal sales growth is of course relevant in fundamental terms. It is not relevant to the (purported) fact that the population has presumably been spending 6% more yoy on Friday.
Perhaps you got a $368 value at $105. Perhaps 200, 150, or 100. I'm not an expert in retail operations, but I do know that gross margins between manufacturer's prices and shelf prices are quite large to accomodate selling a portion of the merchandise at or below cost for a short while (i.e. as long as "supplies" last). So you got your power supply for free (the store won't get the money for the rebate stamp), but a number of others paid the full markup over the year, because they needed the part there and then.
I believe we both agree that however the 6% came about, the idea of tracking this indicator is to make predictions about the "strength" of holiday sales, and in no small part confirmation that "the economy" is still doing well, and "continues to improve". And we both have doubts that those implications have merit, for largely similar reasons.
cm,
We aren't arguing, we are expanding. From my previous posting, I was there at 6:15AM, walked in and was out in 45 minutes with no waiting at any station or checkout. Iactually bought twice as much "stuff" but simplified as it would cloud my point to mention having paid 99 cents for a DVD, $26 for a vacuum cleaner and such. Oh and yes, I did grab a game console for about 75% of "market". Are those the right prices? Who knows. What I do know and it isn't a stretch to trust me that a PC enclosure, 500w ps, video card, speakers, thumbdrive, DVD cases and 100 recordable DVDs for $6 after rebate is what I spent but the store reported those sales as $269. And that's the point. We are only differing in the degree rto which we are suspicious of the reported figures so far. If forced to guess I'd say we will end up Dec 26th with claims of 6-8% over last year eventually revised down to 5-6%. To me this is a non-number as it has no content value. We aren't going to see a number eeither so high or so low as to prove a reliable indicator.
anecdotal: I went to Costco on Friday to replace a dying DVD player and compared to a normal weekend there the place was dead. I went back Saturday because I forgot to get some blank discs and it was still relatively dead ("dead" at Costco means not waiting in line for 30 minutes to check out; both times this weekend there were no lines to speak of). usually it's pandemonium and it was sort of weird.
Charts, not adjusted? Well then, I'm not real impressed with 6%.
And, judging from the skittishness of retailers chopping the price of 42" plasma TV's by 60% (Circuit City, e.g.) while looking over their shoulders at Wal-Mart's November results, I'd say that the retailers aren't real impressed, either - the brave front being put up by the NFR notwithsanding.
this has got to be the dumbest line of argument I have read on the internet.
Ah - new to the nets, are you? (grin)
Seriously, this is nothing on the trekkie arguments (who's better, picard or kirk...), or whether lasers or missiles are "really" dominant in future space combat, or if we get really fun whether Legolas parts his hair on the left or the right (seriously, I watched 400 messages on that subject tossed out at one time).
So, Troy, allow me to welcome you to the internet. And however dumb you may THINK posters are going to be, allow me to assure you that you really have no idea...
Robert Coté: I hadn't seen the point of your deeply rebated goods reported as a full sale. OTOH the stores are getting the money, and the rebates actually have to be claimed (and paid out!) yet.
Nonetheless it's a good point. Rebates are a big question mark in this, and could easily shave off a few percentage points. But then the same can be argued for past years.
edhopper: Sure, but whether presumed Friday sales growth due to longer hours means fewer sales later we will learn (or be able to speculate) only after a while.
Dryfly, this is the third year running that your idiotic "blizzard of pinkslips" prediction is left twisting in the wind.
And Charts, your disappointment as to the inability of CR's bloggers to rationaly understand data indicates you are new here. This thread is actually a high-water mark.
until moral hazard is re-established as more than a quaint old fashioned notion... either that or liquidity really does dry up (as in those foreigners stop buying the MBS & 10 yrs)... this thing can run on a whole lot longer.
It's the liquidity, stupid.
I mean how many credit card offers do you get a week? I get about a dozen.
How often do you get asked if you want a store's credit card when you pass through check out? I get it every time I shop anywhere.
We all see the cracks - it just hasn't crumbled yet. Won't anytime too soon... but when it does it will make a big ol'mess. Count on it.
"Preliminary figures from ShopperTrak RCT Corp. , which monitors sales at more than 45,000 retail outlets, found that business dropped off dramatically on Saturday, resulting in the weekend's results being weaker than a year ago. Actual results for Saturday won't be available until Monday."
88 comments so far attempting to explain why the sky is really falling, in the face of the sky... not... falling. Right, all those shoppers must be wrong.
At least it will be fun raising a glass to the utter demise of cringing nay-sayers like Roubini et. al. - dryfly, perhaps you could propose a toast? I think our 2007 recession is delayed in transit.
At least arguing about Star Trek is about arguing about differing tastes. This is just bringing a stupid bull vs. bear ideological-driven wankfest on the thinnest of datasets and flawed reasoning therefrom.
The rodent on groundhog day has more sense than this BS.
I am more familiar with the ICSC data than Fed data points, since I consult in the industry. 2005 was an "average" holidy season, even according to the ICSC lead economist. If it blew the doors off, someone forgot to report it to ICSC. Early deep discounting led to early strong numbers.
seems to back up shoppertrak's assertion that after the black friday bang, the weekend really went down with a fizzle.
The retail store at Mall Of America where my son works gave him Sunday off after seeing Saturday's slow traffic - they said it wasn't terribly slow, just not so hectic he needed to come in for an extra day (its his usual day off anyway).
FWIW - he says the managers at his store tell him they are doing fine sales volume wise - both his store & nationally.
Its one of the book & music chain stores. In fact they tend to be a bit 'counter cyclical'... meaning their sales are better when other sectors are a little soft... give somebody 'you love' that $15 off $30 glitzy coffee table hardcover instead of a more expensive present. We've all been there.
I still think sales & 4Q GDP will be just fine - but only because liquidity is pouring in and not because our fundamentals are so wonderful - but as long as they keep letting us run up the tab we will.
Robert Coté You did good except for the Power Supply. My experience is that one 500 watt no name PS = 'real' wattage of 250 or less. Also the drive can fail grandly and take drives, MB, cpu and other stuff literally up in smoke. A gross way to test is to hold it in your hand, a good PS should be noticeably heavy.
I used to do the same thing, but ended up with a bunch of stuff that did not work very well. I am jealsous of the thumb drive though I dropped 25$ on a 2 gig model, no rebates.
Never the less your story and the deep discounting would normally mean that profits should be looked at. But in this environment, trying to predict economic directions is currenly akin to tossing bones and intrepreting the way they fall.
My observations at about 6:00 in the morning, Kmart was about as full as a typical Weekend Envening. I skipped the malls, Walmart was average.
I heard stories from participants about block long lines at CompUsa and BestBuy, but these folks had a plan and bought little else.
The following is an interesting read into the mindset of the true Black Friday shopper.
Retailers have to discount or advetise more each year to keep the sales coming. They or someone else has to provide increasing credit for these sales. Sans this, the consumer would stop, but as long as there is 'money on the table' the consumer will keep consuming. The powers that be have determined that anything else is a disaster.
In the interests of reaching the 100 comment mark (that has to be a new record for this blog...?), thought I would throw in my two cents.
I do think the Wal-Mart sales reports to be of value. From what I know they have an almost real time tally of their sales. But we will see on Thursday when they report their final monthly report. As the news report states if it is a decline it would mark Wal-Mart's first monthly same-store sales decline since April 1996.
Couple of things with regard to consumer spending this season:
1) Even though home prices have fallen recently, homeowners still believe the value of their homes will go up according to recent surveys.
2) There really hasn't been any bad news in terms of job losses yet even though housing starts data suggest such news may be coming shortly.
In other words, at this point there's really no reason to think the consumer should be especially worried about the future.
I think next year will be the real test. If there's no siginificant consumer retrenchment by the end of 2007 then it may not be in the cards - unless the US economy manages to blow another bubble and defers any economic downturn.
"Fewer consumers turned out for the post-Thanksgiving shopping bonanza this year, but they spent more than last year as they stocked their carts with expensive electronics, according to a retail trade group.
The National Retail Federation estimated that 140 million people hit the stores and shopped online over the past four days, down about 5 million from last year. Black Friday, the symbolic kickoff of the holiday season for retailers, drew about 58.9 million people, down more than 1 million."
Kett82, I think the Wal-Mart numbers are significant (more than the speculation about Black Friday, etc.). I'm looking forward to the Fed's Flow of Funds report on Dec 7th to see if there was any reduction in Q3 MEW (I think MEW held up OK).
ac: As I'm observing and hearing, some local (tech) employers have gotten good at "managing" their headcounts while avoiding major bad news. Tactics used include steady cutting/churning of a few people every week, conversion of "commodity" staff to temps/contractors, net hiring freezes (i.e. hiring only into "vacated" positions), limiting hiring to "exceptional" candidates by referral and with positions created on the fly, steady defining down of benefits and fringe benefits, etc.
I'm not sure how widespread this is. When you don't hear of the big annual layoffs, that doesn't mean that number of jobs doesn't get cut, or pushed down the (disposable) income ladder.
Still waiting on my apology from "charts" who thinks he has the market cornered on data and its interpretation and who can call people a liar at his fancy. Not coming? Oh well.
vader observes" Robert Coté You did good except for the Power Supply. My experience is that one 500 watt no name PS = 'real' wattage of 250 or less. Also the drive can fail grandly and take drives, MB, cpu and other stuff literally up in smoke. A gross way to test is to hold it in your hand, a good PS should be noticeably heavy.
I did okay. This is an Ultra X-Finity series with UL and EU certs, dual fans w/ball bearings, weighs about 8 freakin' pounds so real capacitors and machined heatsinks, super impressive piece. Everything you say is important for people doing DIY stuff, caveat emptor. Me? I'm gonna use it for a new house server, 500x2 RAID1 (mirrored) under FreeNAS 0.68x.
On topic, I'm thinkin' CRs famous mortage apps will be the next valuable datum. The projected holiday sales are giving me a headache.
Mark, i called no one a liar, nor claimed to corner the market on anything. don't put words in my mouth unless you want my cojones in yours. if your feelings bruise that easily you need a shrink, not an apology. good luck.
hard to argue with that data.
I have a bad feeling about this too.
"hard to argue with that data." --charts
LOL!
forget about the Fed lowering interest rates! just added 8.96 billion card debt today, so the economy must be growing.
I'll wait for the inevitable 3 revisions. Remember also that Walmart, Target, Costco, Sam's Club, Home Depot, Lowes, and many more are not mall based reatial stores. I also cannot even come close to believing their reporting this figure to 3 significant digits. 6% could mean the stores were open just an hour longer than last year as well.
"6% could mean the stores were open just an hour longer than last year as well."
Rob, I know you mean well, but you're grasping here, buddy. They cover 41,000 mall stores.
The consumer is not going to stop until the credit cards and the home equity runs out another 2-3 years.
I would have thought they could see the housing slowdown and start to save but I think that most do not even have a clue about what is going on around them, especially economics. They think that ultimately housing will continue up in the next year or so.
I have alot of friends who have bought 1-3 million dollar houses on interest only who think that they will be worth
3-6 million in 10 years. This is their retirement fund and why they do not save.
How about "Well the herd is well managed on day 1, but what about the weeks ahead?"?
Or "Sales volume may only represent loss leaders as companies more than last year (more than 6 percent more) need the cash flow."?
Or "Sales volume was up only because the electronic widgets (the plasma TVs etc) were just bigger items."?
Or "More people feel 6 percent more confident since the election result."?
Or "Across the nation, shopping conditions (not to mention blanket advertising) were 6% more effective/congenial: it was just better shopping weather."?
Robert Coté: It doesn't matter where the 6% come from. Whether it's from longer hours, more customers, higher prices, or whatever, it's an aggregate 6% more money out of people's pockets (or more likely 6% more added to the tab). If the 6% figure holds water that is.
"charts" correctly opines upon my previous comment:
"6% could mean the stores were open just an hour longer than last year as well."
Rob, I know you mean well, but you're grasping here, buddy. They cover 41,000 mall stores.
No, think about it. There were even midnight openings. In particular the Westfield Shops Camarillo Premium Outlet Mall near me. They certainly were open more hours than last year. And don't tell me it doesn't make a difference. We have the same problem comparing month to month and year to year because of more Fridays or holidays or whatever. One day in a month -> 3%. One hour 13 to 14 -> more than 6%. If the hours didn't matter why does near every store schedule extended holiday hours? Why not be open 4 intense hours and save on overtime and personell costs, etc?
I only mildly asserted that hours could have contributeed but it was hardly reaching.
ShopperTrak RTC measures foot traffic, and doesn't have access to retailer computers and sales data. They install 45K videos at various retailers. We don't really know what sales are - we only kow that foot traffic was up 6%. Bloomberg didn't even include the sentence "vs last year", so I wasn't sure 6% compared to what... They probably estimate sales based on foot traffic.
However, with Walmart reporting a disappointing Saturday, I will reserve any judgment on sales until the data is released. Higher foot traffic could mean higher sales, but it could also mean more people out looking for bargains. Who knows what all those people ended up buying?
Exactly, cm. 6% growth is what we should expect from a slowing economy that's seen sales growth off by 2% YOY each of the past two months.
Last year November ex-auto sales grew at a huge 8.34% YOY clip. If we lop off 2%, we get...6%! Not that far off from what the ShopperTrak data is telling us. They probably have it right, more or less.
We can start to worry if we see the monthly ex-auto sales dipping into the 2% YOY growth range. That's pre-recessionary stuff.
S. Berkland,
If you're correct, then this is one of the most misleading stories I've seen. In any event, your advice about reserving judgment until more complete numbers are available is undoubtedly appropriate.
i'm going to repeat something from the other thread: if there's one thing we should have learned from the past two years, it's that a good chunk of holiday sales will be deferred in the form of gift cards, and not recognized as revenue until january or later....
in short, i don't think poring over the daily sales numbers is as revealing as it once was....
Wasn't me....
We shopped a couple of resale places yesterday, but that was about it. No malls at all.
who shops at walmart for xmas anyway? isn't that just where we buy whitie-tities and other essentials?
what did neiman marcus do? thats where all of the heloc'ers shop anyhow.
Web sales down on Black Friday
Business & Financial News, Breaking US & International News | Reuters.com
6% more feet does not necessarily mean 6% more sales. If wallmart is doing badly everyone else is probably too. Wallmart absorbs as much as 20% of chinas exports.
You can't win folks:
If sales are down we're nearing the cliff.
If sales are up the cliff is just getting higher.
No, ST does not just measure foot traffic. Cf Page not found | ShopperTrak
"..derived from the U.S. Commerce Department's GAFO (general merchandise, apparel, furniture, sporting goods, electronics, hobby, books and other related store sales) statistic, as well as ShopperTrak's proprietary industry intelligence on shopper movement and sales statistics."
Foot traffic is estimated to be up 2.3% this holiday season. For that cf Page not found | ShopperTrak
This congrues pretty well with government data. Nominal retail sales the last couple months were up in the 5% range YoY, real sales in the 2-3% range. Foot traffic up 2%, prices up, and voila, 6% is perfectly normal.
I don't really see even a 3% real increase as surprisingly strong, but then I don't think the economy is showing any too-disturbing strains -- yet. For now, don't bet against the consumer until you see the whites of his eyes.
I second wcw - I put my foot in my mouth a couple days ago in the comment section on Thoma's site and said I thought holiday sales will do just fine this year and beat 'expectations'.
And I'm not saying everything is A-OK in Bedford Falls... its just that until moral hazard is re-established as more than a quaint old fashioned notion... either that or liquidity really does dry up (as in those foreigners stop buying the MBS & 10 yrs)... this thing can run on a whole lot longer.
It's the liquidity, stupid.
I mean how many credit card offers do you get a week? I get about a dozen.
How often do you get asked if you want a store's credit card when you pass through check out? I get it every time I shop anywhere.
We all see the cracks - it just hasn't crumbled yet. Won't anytime too soon... but when it does it will make a big ol'mess. Count on it.
"It's the liquidity, stupid."
Amen, brother. Love that line.
You could add/replace Bretton Woods II.
When does it all end...
I'm generally very bearish, but I'm also beginning to seriously question the ability of some of this site's regulars to treat data objectively.
so relax, we're not in a recession yet. the data points to that fact that we may be heading down that path, what with the declining growth rates and all, but we having arrived in recessionville yet.
Look at the YoY rise in income taxes paid on page 5 of the Monthly Treasury Statement. Historical data up through August are can be downloaded here
.
Since a large fraction of the populace is getting miniscule pay raises, it's very clear a lot of other people are making out like bandits.
The local Kohl's store in Manchester CT was packed Friday- the traffic was backed up onto the streets at the entrance. Yesterday it was seeing more activity then an average Saturday- but not nearly as crowded as the day before. Empty parking spaces.
I do expect only the most low-end retailers, like Walmart and Target to be hit. People below median income are already hit by housing bubble.
The average and above retailers must be ok, because upper-middle class is not hit by the bubble, it is well employeed and is expecting good bonuses.... (I finally must get over 35k bonus this year, damn it!)
"When does it all end..."
John Diehl | 11.26.06 - 1:22 am
IT ENDS HERE, JOHN, AND IT ENDS VERY BADLY. Just because people can buy something, doesn't mean that they can pay for it. This is what happens, when a whole community lives a lifestyle that out-stips its means:
Shuttered homes, blighted blocks - The Denver Post
Let's have a little deeper look before drawing conclusions..
Here's the researh:
Page not found | ShopperTrak
"CHICAGO – November 25, 2006 – ShopperTrak RCT Corporation's National Retail Sales Estimate (NRSE) today reported that the 2006 holiday retail season got off to a relatively strong start as compared to 2005 with the season's first major shopping day, Black Friday, increasing 6.0 percent. Preliminary sales estimated at a daily rate for Black Friday totaled $8.96 billion or $8,955 million."
So this is a "preliminary sales estimation". What is it based on?
Page not found | ShopperTrak
"Measuring Shopper Traffic
Foot traffic data is perhaps the most accurate leading indicator of future sales"
Page not found | ShopperTrak
"Why Measuring Black Friday Traffic is Mission Critical for Retailers
At no time during the year is traffic monitoring more important than on Black Friday, one of the biggest shopping days of the year. "
And on another news site I read that they have around 40000 video cameras tracking the traffic. Now, Wal-Mart also said that they had big crowds, but small sales. So traffic was large, but people didn't buy as much on the average as before. Here's the news:
Black Friday holiday sales results: strong start - for some - Nov. 25, 2006
So if ShopperTrak's premilinary sales estimated is mostly (alone?) based on foot traffic at this point, there is a good chance they need to review it downwards later with actual sales figures in hand. Not necessarily, but it's just that I wouldn't trust this report at this point, especially given Wal-Mart's own report, which could explain it.
WCW "Nominal retail sales the last couple months were up in the 5% range YoY, real sales in the 2-3% range."
Double check that, retail sales
are down the lkast couple of months,
-0.8% Aug-Sept, -0.2% Sept-Oct.
I wouldn't get too excited about it one way or another. Waiting for the consumer to spend less is a Chinese Water Torture, it's just not worth it.
Consumers always lag, they won't cut back UNTIL we're in recession, i.e., until they're told to cut back. AND additionally when they really are hurting. Collectively they're going to be dragged by their Macy's bags kicking and screaming to the save-fest, all the while searching their wallet for another credit card to max out.
It's started already with the bottom quintiles who shop at Wall-Mart. The rest actually have some money they can still tap, so I expect it'll take a while.
Kudos to you CR for immediately bringing data that supports moderating growth and not a meltdown into the mix! It makes your work that much more credible!!
Unfortunately, the kneejerk reaction some members here are expressing reveals a huge biad on their part. It's hard for me to take them seriously now. The first inclination of some of the posters here is to immediately attack the data and imagine ways to undermine the methodology, rather than really examine - scientifically - if the data has a decent probably of being right or wrong as a figure for retail sales.
A real scientist begins by testing the hypothesis that the recent data is wrong: If the "traffic" data were in fact illegitmate or vulnerable to huge revisions etc, than it would history of deviations with actual Fed retails sales numbers. There are examples of this, like how the ADP jobless claims report often deviates greatly from the BLS numbers.
Guess what? Historically, the "traffic" numbers don't deviate much from the retail sales numbers reported at the Fed (over the last 6 months or so, the traffic numbers have averaged about .3% greater than Fed retail ex-food numbers).
So really, there's nothing to see here. Save for walmart, black friday wasn't a complete failure, and there aren't going to be serious downward revisions from the data that was presented by shoppertrak. The ruminations about big downward revisions, not being able to trust the data etc...those are all inventions, figments of bias.
A 6% rate of growth reflects a slowing economy relative to last year's 8.7% YoY clip. 6% is by no means gangbusters. We won't see ugly YoY numbers like 2% until we're actually in a recession, which won't come until after job losses and a spike in unemployment. This is probably coming very soon, but we're not there yet - so please, save the attacks on this data for black friday circa 2007, if we get serious job losses and retail is still posting 6% gains.
I feel shameless invoking the twisted Larry Kudlow, who I find the most base of cheerleaders. But to his credit, he dubbed those who can only see the economy in an apocolyptic light as members of "the cult of the bear". While the bear case is strong in many regards and a recession more likely than not, some posters here are certified cult members, in serious need of a reality check. The bias isn't healthy.
Thank you CR!
Dr. Deflation,
Exactly! God bless you for this comment:
"Consumers always lag, they won't cut back UNTIL we're in recession"
Please continue to enlighten biased.
Guys, the industry always reports a great start to the holiday season. Remember last years headlines? HUGE increases reported. Thay all fizzled out to nothing. It's the same game year after year.
Enormous discounts and heavy advertising of them is driving up foot traffic. If the industry wants to cannabalize itself like the auto industry does with this, why are we getting all pushed out of shape? Besides it is one extremely early datapoint, that's all.
until moral hazard is re-established as more than a quaint old fashioned notion... either that or liquidity really does dry up (as in those foreigners stop buying the MBS & 10 yrs)... this thing can run on a whole lot longer.
It's the liquidity, stupid.
I mean how many credit card offers do you get a week? I get about a dozen.
How often do you get asked if you want a store's credit card when you pass through check out? I get it every time I shop anywhere.
We all see the cracks - it just hasn't crumbled yet. Won't anytime too soon... but when it does it will make a big ol'mess. Count on it.
dryfly | 11.26.06 - 12:20 am | #
Mark what are you imagining here?
"Remember last years headlines? HUGE increases reported. Thay all fizzled out to nothing. It's the same game year after year"
When you have a chance, please check the St. Louis Fed's retail YoY sales figures for Nov and Dec 2005. Checking them gives you a chance to amend your comment so that it's more truthful, because I don't think your post is based on fact but rather imagination. Hint: there actually were big increases last year.
Jeremy, the acronym YoY means "year-over-year". ShopperTrak is reporting year-over-year increases, too. This was a pure, apples-to-apples comparison.
charts, you have to ignore market theologians. CR has been very data-driven even though he clearly has an opinion, and that's enough for me.
Oh, and an aside: last year's comparable ShopperTrak Black-Friday press release showed a small decrease, which I believe they later had to revise up. My memory could be failing me here, but I am pretty sure nobody last year was touting a big Black Friday haul. Katrina was less than a quarter past then, and I think it showed.
dc1000: i think they are "tightie-whities"
I know you want to look on the bright side "charts" but youve totally forgotten a few things it seems.
First, judging purchasing power and how good a christmas sales you are going to have just by measuring foot traffic yoy on the one day after thanksgiving misses a major issue. This is THE sale day of the year, so increased traffic can actually mean that weaker sales are ahead, as people try to cram in their shopping early to get the sales they desperately need because of lack of spending power.
That alone, combined with foot traffic being majorly influenced by available store hours means this data point, without context, is almost meaningless.
Yes, in the past, foot traffic has been a good variable to use to estimate sales, but that doesnt mean that much when you have a situation which has enough variables to make it a good candidate for one of the years when that variable misses badly.
While I agree there is a lot of bearish sentiment here, and a lot of posts seem to want to cheer on bad news or find bad news in ambiguous information, for now, we are probably in a wait and see situation.
That said, 6% yoy means there is likely no calamity ahead immediately, but dont get too cheerful that this is a big deal and holiday sales are saved.
and btw, it DOES matter where that 6% came from. Sales are often pushed forward by promotions, and everyone seems to know that promos are early this year.
I still hold to the idea that capitalism is dead and we have not realized it now.
But to some practical things. There is no moral hazard to debt, so the rational (if counter intuitive to the old paradigm) response to to consider it just like income. In fact it is better than income, because you can write it down, say buy your honey a diamond ring and then not pay for a year and then pay the collection company 50 cents on the dollar or less. Or you put down nothing on a house, get a 125% mortgage, walk away with cash and then get up to a year free rent. And so on.
Is it liquidity or has capitalism run its course and the new way of governments and central banks the "New Way". Is it liquidity or has big money lost its value because so much of it is sloshing around and no where to put it because the governments are distorting things in a way they could not since the rise of capitalism.
Will the moral hazard of the housing bubble dry up the liquidity or is there so much sloshing around that the losers will lose but the money has to be invested somewhere if only in funny paper.
Of course the answer is not capitalism, but high taxes on high assets and income to break up the concentration. But the political way is no there yet.
Sales is another issue, All that neat electronics was heavily discounted. Now did the folks make a profit. Assuming that Walmart is well managed, had very good reporting software. Assume that Walmart is reputed to be well ahead of everyone else in information tech--then there had be a better reason for them to be pessimistic than folks shopping at Target.
What's that "charts"? You criticized strongly other writers here being too bearish, being not researching as they should etc., while what the thing was about was that since Wal-Mart did report strong traffic AND weak sales and at this point ShopperTrack's report is based mostly on traffic numbers, it is a premilinary report.
So get easy for a while and let's wait for the results. That's what people said here, let's wait.
too early to say if this yr retail sale would be ok...prelim data seems fine but THXgiving volume has been hyped for quite some time..The data around xmas will clinch it for good. i expect it to be tepid as high priced items has nice discounts this time around (eg 42" plasma at almost 25% (~$300) discount!)That will eat into 2007 sales to say the least.
A bit from the San Francisco Chronicle business section this Am
regarding credit card spending:
According to the center, average household debt levels topped average after-tax income by more than 29 percent as of this summer. Moreover, the average family is now spending 14.4 percent of its disposable income on debt repayments -- the largest share since the Fed began collecting such data in 1980.
"This is an unsustainable trend," said Christian Weller, senior economist at the center. "People simply can't borrow at the same rate they've borrowed in the past."
According to the Fed, total consumer credit debt, excluding mortgages, hit a record $2.4 trillion in September. Factoring in mortgages, outstanding household debt soars to about $12.3 trillion.
I distrust the "data" here because of a bias. Not my bias but the industry, media and systemic biases that we are observing. Initial reports of Holiday sales have been optimistic for the last 4 or more years. Last year only a little, 2003 a real lot IIRC.
It is a gross mischaracterization to describe these repondents general skeptism as "huge bias." The Walmart same store data and the ShopperTrak data are at odds for but one reason to question such a rosy prediction.
This year has an extra weekend that will "save" the season no matter what the condition of the general economy or tapped out consumer may be. Additionally IMO no matter where the data fall hedonist adjustments are going to cloud any final conclusions.
I have no criticism with bearish arguments. I'm far from bullish and hold substantial short positions.
That said, I criticize the attempts by posters here to immediatly try to discredit the data because they were expecting very weak numbers.
Agreed that projecting Xmas sales off of one black friday makes little sense. the gripe is that the the historically the traffic numbers tend to match sales pretty well, but some ppl here just won't buy that sales growth is remarkeably average - and are immediately spinning the numbers like a bunch of reverse kudlows. That sort of commentary sullies a great blog.
charts: while CR is pretty good about presenting 'just the facts ma'am' most of the commenters here are searching daily for the end of the world.
me, i'm just looking for some clarity in a confusing world.
I think the mere appearance of the word "kudlow" in your posts 'charts' is enough to raise the hackles of those "biased" (and kudos to the gods for that typo "biad") posters we (you and me) want to bring into line.
These biased posters are so sensitive, I know I'm going to get clobbered just for mentioning you and Kudlow --no matter whether I thought either they were 'scientific', 'biased' or worse 'right on the money'.
Following wcw's note about Katrina and that last year's baseline might be less than representative, do we need also to account for increasing population? falling dollar? median $size of purchased item? dollars spent on promotion? brought forward sales?
I do appreciate bob who brings to light (for me anyhow) the idea of 'being above/below the bubble' (~the image of a bubble on a table, not one floating in the air) and one's place in America's Dream/Nightmare, home ownership.
I'm not saying that the 6% increase is wrong -- because I can know that for sure. But I think it is highly suspect given that Wallmart is reporting worst performace in a decade. Also i would guess that sales = traffic * conversion rate. Traffic is up, but conversion rate could be down (we dont know this for sure). If the conversion rate is the same as last year than there must be a problem specific to Wallmart.
My money is on weaker to flat holiday sales this year.
typo: beacuase I cant know that for sure
flat to weaker inflation adjusted
Here is some meat for the "higher traffic doesn't equal higher sales" camp to chew on:
Our Apologies - KPLC 7 News, Lake Charles, Louisiana |
patience. we will all find out later...
Regarding credit card debt, be careful this holiday season. I noted in my recent Citibank bill that I won't be receiving my next "monthly" statement until late December.
If the same thing happens with you, don't let this give you a false impression of new found wealth. The credit card companies are counting on people spending past their budgets so that they won't have the cabbage to pay their balance in full when it finally comes due. Thus starting erstwhile responsible borrowers down the slope of accumulating interest payments.
It's a despicable gimmick.
FWIW, I have an eyeball test (actually, set of tests) I use most years which seems to work for answering whether it's going to be good, bad, or middlin' for retailers. Over the past decade it's been pretty good, so I'll share.
About 4 or 5 in the afternoon of Black Friday, I wander through Walmart, Best Buy, and the mall. I'm looking at two things. First, what's parking like? Second, what are the shelves like?
On the first, a parking lot that's only about a third full (or less) is bad. More than 2/3 is good.
On the second, I'm looking to see if there are lots of things on the shelves. A "good" sales meant that the loss leaders had a lot of people also buying other things. So the more empty spots the better. If the shelves look 'normal', there's a problem. Oh, and every time I discover something that was in the sales catalog still in the store, it's troubling.
I repeat the parking lot test over the next couple of weeks for verification.
Now, I saw what the lines were like for two stores locally. I had to drive by them at 2 in the morning - and lines down the sidewalk and to the back of the building is definitely "Long". I expect the mobs were furious that morning.
But when I went to all three of my tests, the parking lots ranged from a quarter to half full - nominally averaging that 1/3 trigger. And wandering through... Walmart had a few empty spots in electronics and toys, but that was about it. Best Buy had TWO of its catalog items still in stock. The mall stores looked like they were still well stocked.
At this point, I'm expecting no better than mediocre when all the measuring is done, and most likely a poor retail season.
Yes, it's anecdotal. It's a local fuzzy test extrapolated to national results. But it seems to have worked in the past, and so I'm sharing.
BTW I always have a bias when looking at individual stats. The imporant thing is the big picture. The economy is definitely softening. An uptick in mall foot traffic is not going to change my mind about that.
Is it really that crazy to bet againt the consumer at this point? I think not. The consumer has been getting money from two sources: housing equity, and government deficit spending. Both of these are being taken away. I think the outcome is pretty obvious.
Of course there are those who say that job growth has been strong and that will support the consumer and the economy. But where do the jobs really come from? Well -- either its a bridge-to-nowhere project -- or big american businesses are highring to improve distribution and sales for their chinese made products.
So maybe -- maybe -- there are more shoppers as perhaps the level of employment is higher than last year. Is that going to save the economy from a major downturn?
Thanks, Kirk. I like your methodology. And always remember: "the plural of anecdote is data." ;>)
Roert Coté, Patriot, Geoff: When I said it doesn't matter where the 6% come from, I meant that assuming for the time being the 6% holds water (or whatever the number will turn out to be otherwise), it should be of little consequence how the stores managed to engineer the revenue. They will employ all measures at their disposal to move product, be it hype, "discounts" (from "regular" prices designed with the discount figured in), or longer hours.
At the end of the day, customers parted with 6% more currency/debt obligations than last year.
Whether this will mean the end of the rope is going to be reached earlier or it's a genuine and sustained uptick in sales the future will show. It depends majorly on whether the credit spigot remains wide open.
charts: Fair enough, but don't forget that indicators tend to decorrelate with what they are supposed to measure/indicate, or what they are meant to imply, roughly to the degree they are used to "manage" the underlying reality, or perceptions thereof.
For example, do you believe that today's 4.4% unemployment mean the same as 4.4% say 10, 20, or 30 years ago?
me, I'm just looking for some clarity in a confusing world.
Interesting discussion - heated is not bad as long as it isn't personal and I didn't think it went over the top.
I still think this season is going to surprise to the upside... reasons are as follows...
(1) the liquidity spigot still hasn't been turned off. Credit cards are the 'new MEW' - until all available options of credit are constrained or exhausted this will continue. The supposed recent slowing of MEW won't offer much of a head wind in the short term.
(2) Hype - there has been so much 'bubble news & recession talk' on MSM lately I feel expectations have been greatly lowered - beating expectations won't be all that hard. Think of it as the Roubini effect.
I'll go out on another limb - I'll guess right now that 4Q GDP comes in at an annualized rate approx. 3% or more... WAY OVER expectation.
Reason? The stronger consumption recorded from holiday sales - as you all know consumption is something like 70-80% of GDP.
BTW - I do not think everything is A-OK... I said that above... its just that the numbers can be goofy even without gov't & trade insiders intensionally cooking them. That's why I don't think you can look at the numbers alone but rather look for them to give hints at what is happening - then look deeper.
Fundamentals ultimately drive long term results but short term technicals can really confound simplistic assumptions about the 'long term'.
Judgment is using rational thought to tease through conflicting data. If it was easy we'd all have Nobel Prizes and a house next door to Warren. I have neither.
dryfly:
a 3% GDP would crush the market..LOL
no chance of a rate decrease and only add fuel to the inflation camp on the the Fed board. the dollar would go Zoommmmm up and those shorting the dollar would be meeting the margin man up close and personal!
Ya I know ron - sounds irrational but then what did Keynes say about rationality, markets & personal liquidity?
I don't think things are fine - but with a normal holiday cycle - I could EASILY see a 3% 4Q-06... and confound everyone looking for a clear signal.
I don't know if you saw this over at the Big Picture...
Recession: The Stage Is Set
I agree with all of it... except it won't happen this quarter.
I believe people will buy this holiday season... call it blindness, or stubbornness, or hope... but I just don't feel the wheels will fall off this quarter.
Not until CC companies start constraining their exposures... and with a huge holiday season & slowing growth going forward they just might... one of those fear & greed things. Right now, with X-Mas just around the corner... greed rules. Its the American way... January is the start of the 'fear' season.
even stronger news, weekend sales up 19% yoy...
U.S. Shoppers Spend 19% More on Thanksgiving Weekend (Update3) - Bloomberg.com
dryfly,
At the beginning of 2006, I took the same position on housing that you're taking on retail sales/recession for the very same reasons: way too many bears, MSM full of doom and gloom, liquidity will overcome everything else, etc., etc. It turned out not to be a very smart call. :>(
For the original article - and the other press releases from the NRF - go to National Retail Federation - .
An interesting thing I note in comparison to last year is that although the average expenditure is up (from 304 to 360), the number of shoppers is down (from 145 million to 140 million). The increase overcomes the decrease, but it's still telling, I think.
I also find it interesting - suggestive, even - that the attendance of men in the shopping numbers is HUGE in comparison to last year. And men spent ~$420 vs women's $304 average. They spent it mostly (39.5%) on electronics and (49.2%) on books, CDs, DVDs, Videos and video games. Connecting this with other things, my impression is:
Men were the doorbuster targets, and it worked for this weekend. But if the rest of the shopping season returns to normal "who is buying" patterns, then we'll see a major decrease in both number of shoppers and amount they're spending.
But it's my guess, not my certainty. We'll see.
cm,
The where the 6% comes from is important. Here's my Fry's list from Black Friday:
500w power supply. $0
ATX case w/power supply. $0
19" LCD monitor. $99
exVGA Graphics card. $0
iPod minispeakers. $0
512Mb thumbdrive. $0
10pk DVD cases. $0
50pk DVD-R. $2.99
10pk DVD+R $2.99
Total; $105. Total charged to credit card before rebates; $368. Any questions about whether the "where the 6% increase is coming from" is important?
"14.4 percent of its disposable income on debt repayment...."
that's insane! and people bitch about taxes being take out of their pay checks...
Balanced? CR, this isn't "balanced" until we get an update on the Tickle Me Elmo thingy-whatsis you reported on some time back.
We interrupt this thread for an important OT announcement:
USD continues to sink as forex trading opens Sunday afternoon -- euro = $1.3164, $1 = 115.55 yen.
"Carry-traders, your bus is leaving . . ."
Now, now, charts. This 19% YOY increase doesn't quite tell the whole story, now does it?
Of those who actually shopped during the 4 day weekend, it's being surmised that each shopper spent, on average, $360.15, a 19% increase over last years average of $302.81.
However, the total number of shoppers fell 5 million, YOY.
Also, a research firm provides some flavor for those digesting the sales data:
"Shoppers limited much of their spending to sale items such as Wal-Mart Stores Inc.'s $997 37-inch LCD TV and Sears Holding Corp.'s discounted jewelry and toys, said consultant Howard Davidowitz. Retailers count on the last quarter of the year to generate one-third of their annual profits.
It was shocking because people were only buying doorbusters,'' said Davidowitz, chairman of Davidowitz & Associates. Employees with his New York-based consulting and investment-banking firm visited 50 retailers over the weekend.You can't have people just come in and buy doorbusters and leave.''"
Not a promising indication of where the retailers' margins may be heading.
Sorry, didn't see that Kirk essentially posted the same, above.
winjr, my only reason to post that was to poor cold water on the game some posters were playing that the very mild 6% YoY sales growth was inconceivable. i have my doubts that sales will be up 19%, but i also doubt that they'll go negative a la walmart.
America has demonstrated repeatedly a lack of self control in consumer spending along with an insatiable dietary intake (supersize me) in junk food, the need to trade in a leased imported car every two years to park in the drive way of their toxic-loan financed mansion. Why would black Friday be any different? This thing is going to default, first by the consumer, then the low level banks and followed up by larger institutions until we have a full fledged credit collapse.
Greg in DC
Robert Coté: I don't know, maybe we are talking at cross purposes. How many hours did you need to collect your items (as you were suggesting higher sales may come from longer opening times)?
So you managed to snatch a number of items at deep discount. I didn't see any plasma TV, game console, or whatever is supposed to be the big hit this year among your booty.
How stores attain the nominal sales growth is of course relevant in fundamental terms. It is not relevant to the (purported) fact that the population has presumably been spending 6% more yoy on Friday.
Perhaps you got a $368 value at $105. Perhaps 200, 150, or 100. I'm not an expert in retail operations, but I do know that gross margins between manufacturer's prices and shelf prices are quite large to accomodate selling a portion of the merchandise at or below cost for a short while (i.e. as long as "supplies" last). So you got your power supply for free (the store won't get the money for the rebate stamp), but a number of others paid the full markup over the year, because they needed the part there and then.
I believe we both agree that however the 6% came about, the idea of tracking this indicator is to make predictions about the "strength" of holiday sales, and in no small part confirmation that "the economy" is still doing well, and "continues to improve". And we both have doubts that those implications have merit, for largely similar reasons.
cm,
We aren't arguing, we are expanding. From my previous posting, I was there at 6:15AM, walked in and was out in 45 minutes with no waiting at any station or checkout. Iactually bought twice as much "stuff" but simplified as it would cloud my point to mention having paid 99 cents for a DVD, $26 for a vacuum cleaner and such. Oh and yes, I did grab a game console for about 75% of "market". Are those the right prices? Who knows. What I do know and it isn't a stretch to trust me that a PC enclosure, 500w ps, video card, speakers, thumbdrive, DVD cases and 100 recordable DVDs for $6 after rebate is what I spent but the store reported those sales as $269. And that's the point. We are only differing in the degree rto which we are suspicious of the reported figures so far. If forced to guess I'd say we will end up Dec 26th with claims of 6-8% over last year eventually revised down to 5-6%. To me this is a non-number as it has no content value. We aren't going to see a number eeither so high or so low as to prove a reliable indicator.
I hope this doesn't seem like a stupid question, but ...
The 6% YOY increase - this isn't adjusted for inflation, is it?
anecdotal: I went to Costco on Friday to replace a dying DVD player and compared to a normal weekend there the place was dead. I went back Saturday because I forgot to get some blank discs and it was still relatively dead ("dead" at Costco means not waiting in line for 30 minutes to check out; both times this weekend there were no lines to speak of). usually it's pandemonium and it was sort of weird.
but that's just one sample.
this has got to be the dumbest line of argument I have read on the internet.
Not adjusted for inflation, Winjr
Charts, not adjusted? Well then, I'm not real impressed with 6%.
And, judging from the skittishness of retailers chopping the price of 42" plasma TV's by 60% (Circuit City, e.g.) while looking over their shoulders at Wal-Mart's November results, I'd say that the retailers aren't real impressed, either - the brave front being put up by the NFR notwithsanding.
Ah - new to the nets, are you? (grin)
Seriously, this is nothing on the trekkie arguments (who's better, picard or kirk...), or whether lasers or missiles are "really" dominant in future space combat, or if we get really fun whether Legolas parts his hair on the left or the right (seriously, I watched 400 messages on that subject tossed out at one time).
So, Troy, allow me to welcome you to the internet. And however dumb you may THINK posters are going to be, allow me to assure you that you really have no idea...
Sales up 6%. But since many stores opened Midnight, Thursday could some or all of this be attributed to longer retail hours?
Robert Coté: I hadn't seen the point of your deeply rebated goods reported as a full sale. OTOH the stores are getting the money, and the rebates actually have to be claimed (and paid out!) yet.
Nonetheless it's a good point. Rebates are a big question mark in this, and could easily shave off a few percentage points. But then the same can be argued for past years.
edhopper: Sure, but whether presumed Friday sales growth due to longer hours means fewer sales later we will learn (or be able to speculate) only after a while.
Dryfly, this is the third year running that your idiotic "blizzard of pinkslips" prediction is left twisting in the wind.
And Charts, your disappointment as to the inability of CR's bloggers to rationaly understand data indicates you are new here. This thread is actually a high-water mark.
until moral hazard is re-established as more than a quaint old fashioned notion... either that or liquidity really does dry up (as in those foreigners stop buying the MBS & 10 yrs)... this thing can run on a whole lot longer.
It's the liquidity, stupid.
I mean how many credit card offers do you get a week? I get about a dozen.
How often do you get asked if you want a store's credit card when you pass through check out? I get it every time I shop anywhere.
We all see the cracks - it just hasn't crumbled yet. Won't anytime too soon... but when it does it will make a big ol'mess. Count on it.
dryfly | 11.26.06 - 12:20 am | #
"Preliminary figures from ShopperTrak RCT Corp. , which monitors sales at more than 45,000 retail outlets, found that business dropped off dramatically on Saturday, resulting in the weekend's results being weaker than a year ago. Actual results for Saturday won't be available until Monday."
FOXNews.com - Busy 'Black Friday' Followed by Lukewarm Weekend - Business And Money | Business News | Financial News
88 comments so far attempting to explain why the sky is really falling, in the face of the sky... not... falling. Right, all those shoppers must be wrong.
At least it will be fun raising a glass to the utter demise of cringing nay-sayers like Roubini et. al. - dryfly, perhaps you could propose a toast? I think our 2007 recession is delayed in transit.
At least arguing about Star Trek is about arguing about differing tastes. This is just bringing a stupid bull vs. bear ideological-driven wankfest on the thinnest of datasets and flawed reasoning therefrom.
The rodent on groundhog day has more sense than this BS.
I am more familiar with the ICSC data than Fed data points, since I consult in the industry. 2005 was an "average" holidy season, even according to the ICSC lead economist. If it blew the doors off, someone forgot to report it to ICSC. Early deep discounting led to early strong numbers.
Thanks for amusing me.
Nice one MaSch. The Drama continues...
troy - y + ll = troll
ah, more data coming in now...
Visa Sees Weakness in Department Stores...not nearly as strong as in previous years,
Visa Sees Weakness in Department Stores, Apparel - Holiday Sales Blog - WSJ
seems to back up shoppertrak's assertion that after the black friday bang, the weekend really went down with a fizzle.
I think our 2007 recession is delayed in transit.
Hey I think the toast ought to go to the PBoC & OPEC - I mean damn, they just think we gotta have all this crap even if we 'got no mo-nay'.
Its so special being us.
seems to back up shoppertrak's assertion that after the black friday bang, the weekend really went down with a fizzle.
The retail store at Mall Of America where my son works gave him Sunday off after seeing Saturday's slow traffic - they said it wasn't terribly slow, just not so hectic he needed to come in for an extra day (its his usual day off anyway).
FWIW - he says the managers at his store tell him they are doing fine sales volume wise - both his store & nationally.
Its one of the book & music chain stores. In fact they tend to be a bit 'counter cyclical'... meaning their sales are better when other sectors are a little soft... give somebody 'you love' that $15 off $30 glitzy coffee table hardcover instead of a more expensive present. We've all been there.
I still think sales & 4Q GDP will be just fine - but only because liquidity is pouring in and not because our fundamentals are so wonderful - but as long as they keep letting us run up the tab we will.
Robert Coté You did good except for the Power Supply. My experience is that one 500 watt no name PS = 'real' wattage of 250 or less. Also the drive can fail grandly and take drives, MB, cpu and other stuff literally up in smoke. A gross way to test is to hold it in your hand, a good PS should be noticeably heavy.
I used to do the same thing, but ended up with a bunch of stuff that did not work very well. I am jealsous of the thumb drive though I dropped 25$ on a 2 gig model, no rebates.
Never the less your story and the deep discounting would normally mean that profits should be looked at. But in this environment, trying to predict economic directions is currenly akin to tossing bones and intrepreting the way they fall.
My observations at about 6:00 in the morning, Kmart was about as full as a typical Weekend Envening. I skipped the malls, Walmart was average.
I heard stories from participants about block long lines at CompUsa and BestBuy, but these folks had a plan and bought little else.
The following is an interesting read into the mindset of the true Black Friday shopper.
Story not found - al.com
IMHO
Retailers have to discount or advetise more each year to keep the sales coming. They or someone else has to provide increasing credit for these sales. Sans this, the consumer would stop, but as long as there is 'money on the table' the consumer will keep consuming. The powers that be have determined that anything else is a disaster.
Charts, the link MaSch provided was for the 2005 season.
Dear CR
In the interests of reaching the 100 comment mark (that has to be a new record for this blog...?), thought I would throw in my two cents.
I do think the Wal-Mart sales reports to be of value. From what I know they have an almost real time tally of their sales. But we will see on Thursday when they report their final monthly report. As the news report states if it is a decline it would mark Wal-Mart's first monthly same-store sales decline since April 1996.
Regards,
Couple of things with regard to consumer spending this season:
1) Even though home prices have fallen recently, homeowners still believe the value of their homes will go up according to recent surveys.
2) There really hasn't been any bad news in terms of job losses yet even though housing starts data suggest such news may be coming shortly.
In other words, at this point there's really no reason to think the consumer should be especially worried about the future.
I think next year will be the real test. If there's no siginificant consumer retrenchment by the end of 2007 then it may not be in the cards - unless the US economy manages to blow another bubble and defers any economic downturn.
Barry R over at Big Picture has his Sunday Linkfest dedicated to Shopping...
HERE
The best link he offers is the WSJ Blog... the Visa link a few posts above was from this site...
HERE
About as clear as mud...
dryfly, clear as mud - I agree!
Here is a story from the WaPo on Monday:
On Black Friday, Fewer People, More Spent
"Fewer consumers turned out for the post-Thanksgiving shopping bonanza this year, but they spent more than last year as they stocked their carts with expensive electronics, according to a retail trade group.
The National Retail Federation estimated that 140 million people hit the stores and shopped online over the past four days, down about 5 million from last year. Black Friday, the symbolic kickoff of the holiday season for retailers, drew about 58.9 million people, down more than 1 million."
Kett82, I think the Wal-Mart numbers are significant (more than the speculation about Black Friday, etc.). I'm looking forward to the Fed's Flow of Funds report on Dec 7th to see if there was any reduction in Q3 MEW (I think MEW held up OK).
Best to all. Wow - a lot of comments!
ac: As I'm observing and hearing, some local (tech) employers have gotten good at "managing" their headcounts while avoiding major bad news. Tactics used include steady cutting/churning of a few people every week, conversion of "commodity" staff to temps/contractors, net hiring freezes (i.e. hiring only into "vacated" positions), limiting hiring to "exceptional" candidates by referral and with positions created on the fly, steady defining down of benefits and fringe benefits, etc.
I'm not sure how widespread this is. When you don't hear of the big annual layoffs, that doesn't mean that number of jobs doesn't get cut, or pushed down the (disposable) income ladder.
Still waiting on my apology from "charts" who thinks he has the market cornered on data and its interpretation and who can call people a liar at his fancy. Not coming? Oh well.
vader observes"
Robert Coté You did good except for the Power Supply. My experience is that one 500 watt no name PS = 'real' wattage of 250 or less. Also the drive can fail grandly and take drives, MB, cpu and other stuff literally up in smoke. A gross way to test is to hold it in your hand, a good PS should be noticeably heavy.
I did okay. This is an Ultra X-Finity series with UL and EU certs, dual fans w/ball bearings, weighs about 8 freakin' pounds so real capacitors and machined heatsinks, super impressive piece. Everything you say is important for people doing DIY stuff, caveat emptor. Me? I'm gonna use it for a new house server, 500x2 RAID1 (mirrored) under FreeNAS 0.68x.
On topic, I'm thinkin' CRs famous mortage apps will be the next valuable datum. The projected holiday sales are giving me a headache.
ICSC Chain Store Sales Index, YoY% Change
Median 1985-2004 Nov-Dec 3.7% Nov-Jan 4.5%
2005 Nov-Dec 3.6% Nov-Jan 4.1%
Source: ICSC
2005 was only "fair". Let's see how 2006 comes out after the hype fades.
Mark, i called no one a liar, nor claimed to corner the market on anything. don't put words in my mouth unless you want my cojones in yours. if your feelings bruise that easily you need a shrink, not an apology. good luck.
charts-
Quit backtracking. You pointedly asked me to revise untruthful statements. Is English not your primary language?
And save the physical threats for someone else little man. They don't impress -- especially on a blog board. What a laugh.
Thanks for the best wishes.
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