Fed's Pianalto: "May take years to get back to 2007 level of output"
Submitted by
CalculatedRisk on Thu, 02/25/2010 - 6:15am (303 comments)
in
![Syndicate content](/misc/feed.png "Comments for \"Fed's Pianalto: "May take years to get back to 2007 level of output"\""){kind=small}
Shopping at Amazon?
Wait! If you click on the Amazon banner link at the top of the page first, HCN will get a percentage of anything you purchase for 24 hours!
Open predictions
Our local book authors
User login
Who's online
There are currently 21 members and 161 guests online.
Recent Recommendations
Good Morning!
So, to sum up, while we are likely now in a period of recovery, it doesn't really feel much like one
I guess she has no money in the stock market.
On the positive side, she didn't say "decades".
Folks; in case there was any doubt, we've been experiencing a depression. Not as big as the Great Depression, but it's foolish to keep calling this a recession anymore, other than for satirical purposes.
JP wrote:
You didn't read between the lines, I take it...
JP wrote:
Sandra's a "he"? Cruel parents.
"In such an environment, firms are being cautious about new hiring and so unemployment persists at a high level, which in turn restrains spending."
Can you say, "vicious cycle"? Good, I knew you could.
You know we have just begun one of the most severe and longest recessions in our nation’s history.
Chainsaw wrote:
Wanted to make him tough:
YouTube - Johnny Cash - A Boy Named Sue
You guys didn't get Timmay's memo. RECESSION IS OVER! (it just feels like one now)
Chainsaw wrote:
My fault. I edited as CincoX quoted me. Now I'm locked out of marking that I edited.
So in summary, I made it look like Cinco is misquoting me. The bastard.
Chainsaw wrote:
Names have power. The word depression is a Pandora's box, full of bad stuff that men fear to open. But the sooner we get to it, the sooner we find out what is at the bottom.
JP wrote:
Bwahahahahahahha---
He forgot to add the pain and suffering caption.....
"You know we have been through one of the most severe and longest recessions..."
Sandra my friend, we've not been through it--just started really.
We'll know there's been a recovery when state & local tax revenue begins to rise. A trailing indicator, it's true, but very hard to fake.
"scores" of years is what it going to take,
Why don't the prognosticators just STFU until the numbers are in? Then they won't sound like complete jackasses week after week after week.
Cinco-X wrote:
Helpful to keep perspective:
Thursday FX View: Out With Flux, In With Risk Aversion -- Seeking Alpha
Circumnavigating the Sierra last week, we saw almost no construction going on, aside from watching some of the new construction methods being utilized on a few small jobs in June Lake and on a condo just off the slopes of Heavenly in Tahoe.
...both efforts were all about particle board and Tyvek. It was shocking to see the junk they were using @ 7,000 to 9,000 feet, for construction materials.
The no doubt about it highlight of the trip was a former Real Estate office in Minden, Nv. turned into a church. You could tell it was a 6%'er hangout because the paint job on one of the awnings wasn't so good, and you could still see 'EAL EST' on it. I wish the 10%'ers luck in their new endeavor...
Finally some realism. Since this is not a post-war recession, I'm intrigued with how many have run to their post-war recovery playbooks. Pianalto is optimistic. We'll never get back to 2007 output (or whatever previous output one wants to use). We simply don't have the cheap energy inputs to fund such output, and we're doubly constrained by the debt. This will all be more clear to people as time rolls on. Indeed, now that we are getting through certain time windows, even the MSM and the FED are starting to get it.
G
shill wrote:
That's already here............
How come when we're kids we long for recess, but when we get all grown up we dread recession?
bobswern smackdown of corrupt Congress and lame ass Obama admin is superb !
Daily Kos: Breaking: Game Over..
Without a single iota of hyperbole, it may now be said that regulatory capture of our government by Wall Street has been concluded. Done deal. Since Monday, the sheer volume of news supporting the truth that Wall Street essentially controls our government has become--quite simply--overwhelming.
It is the total sellout of Main Street and our country as a whole that's been all but concluded before our very eyes. To call it anything less than that would be inaccurate reportage.
It's beyond disgusting, IMHO. Words cannot convey my sense of contempt...that to which we're bearing witness today. It is the definition of betrayal. I'm talking about this...
zephyrum wrote:
Ding ding ding! Sales tax revenue for all the states in particular...muni/state layoffs are a large matron just clearing her throat in the wings...
If Greece goes full-on BK, where do I go to bid on the Acropolis? Would look rather fantabulous sitting in my backyard, like a doghouse.
Was '31 the worst of the Great Depression, Cinco? Give it time, give it time. We may get to the Greater Depression since fewer people are able to feed themselves to day.
I am ok with recession, natural process of correction. So when do prices start correcting?
CR's quote will be my tagline for 2010.
"V is dead!"
YouTube - Zed's dead baby, Zed's dead.
Somewhat refreshing to see a Fed official making statements that are at least related to reality.
Why do Fed presidents hate America?
shill wrote:
They're still correcting. Most people just don't like the direction implied by that.
States Contemplate Drastic Tax Hikes
This wasn't a demand driven recession, so we really shouldn't expect price corrections. This is and was a monetary issue. Price doesn't solve balance sheets.
Anonymous Bosch wrote:
Fair enough; my point was that I think we've got to stop thinking recession, and as I believe someone above alluded to, look to a different solution that the "post war recession" playbooks, and for that matter, even the GDI playbooks, since at least in my case, I think the Keynesian playbook used there was a failure, and I'm too old for a third world war and all that it would entail...
Well one good thing has come out of today's
figures, the dollar is soaring.
Keep sucking that money out of the system Ben, your doing just fine.
dum luk wrote:
Tell us about how strong Christmas sales were again, hmmm?
edit: not you dl, rhetorical question for the talking heads...
How much of our GDP is due to people pushing paper on Wall Street, and how much is people creating products that people are willing to pay more than the aggrecate cost of their inputs? IMHO we're reaching the point where an economy based mostly on lending money to each other to buy stuff made in China will not really work anymore.
The Acropolis would be nicer if they put in a bunch of luxury-boxes with well-stocked liquor cabinets and people waiting on you hand and foot, so you don't miss any of the rioting going on in the new city, as you watch from your plein air perch, above it all.
So, to sum up, while we are likely now in a period of recovery, it doesn't really feel much like one.
Are these figures right!?
Σbay.
Durable goods orders surge 3% on airplanes ( Large bold font )
Excluding transportation, orders fall 0.6% in January ( small magnifying glass required font )
Jim A. wrote:
I thought I heard it had expanded from about 5% to over 20% over the last decade or so. In other words, essentially all "growth" over the last decade occurred on Wall Street. Not a good situation...
Some of these bloggers Fed Presidents are pretty pessimistic!
Some of these Fed Presidents are probably bloggers!
Regardless, it's obvious by going down the points they address and the places where they go to extra efforts to buttress their positions that they are reading the blogs.
My executive summary:
"The question is; V, U or L? The answer is L."
[n.b. familyblog status prevents me from arranging the letters in the recovery order I expect.]
Cinco-X wrote:
Yes, that's why the headline is "Durable-orders fly"!
That was what I thought when the president said they were going to ease up on marijuana enforcement.
Let them numb themselves, because this is going to hurt
One better...I read a
story this morning about how Virgin Galactic is readying a fleet of rockets, so the uber-wealthy can watch the 2012 shenanigans from a comfortable orbital position.
Rob Dawg wrote:
Bags fly free!
j diggles jr wrote:
Yet another thing he lied about. Like that's news.
Vonbek777 wrote:
I'd like to see it done more like that old Chinese story where they strapped a bunch of fireworks to a chair and set them off. Where there was nothing left after "liftoff", it was assumed that the occupant had reached the Moon.............
,rad Dawgma,
I am seeing a Double UU recovery.
...it sounds like this
YouTube - The Beatles - Helter Skelter
How about the balloon chair. Big recliner with built in cooler...
Vonbek777 wrote:
Risking the Lucifer's Hammer scenario - means of return destroyed. OK then. Go with it.
I'm predicting a Щ shaped recovery.
Some pretty interesting commentaries over at KD's, and a pretty cool
video.
What is the deal with these fed presidents? Pianalto has a bit more of a clue than Yellen but like Yellen fails to address the budget crunch facing state/local governments for FY2011. The civil servant job cuts later this year will occur in tandem with the all the census workers being let go H2.
I heard Karl had spittle implant surgery done, it's just a rumor though.
Duck! Watch out for falling home prices - Feb. 25, 2010
Another Fed eCONomist that is slow to grasp the situation. Definitely been smoking some of the Wall St. hopium supplied by the Wall St. eCONomists that get paid handsomely to lie for a living.
Under Bush we had a jobless "recovery" - a lie. Now we're supposed to believe we are having a jobless "recovery" combined with a CONtinuing decline in sales.
Where do they find these dingbats?
There is NO such thing as a jobless recovery. Calling a debt impoverishing eCONomic growth spurt a recovery is lying.
DX over 81 - the highest since june.
zephyrum wrote:
I imagine they will try.
" Updated "
Chula Vista Elementary School District Ca - Considers Pay Cuts , up to 459 Layoffs
Oroville City Elementary School District - Proposes 24 Job Cuts
Update: Brownsburg school district Indiana - up to 20 this summer
Look, there is not going to be two jobless "recoveries" in a row.
We didn't realign the service-sector to manufacturing ratio in the last 2 years meaningfully, so when the service sector (68-70%) is still dependant upon traditional things like employed people and wage inflation, then it's lights out double-dip recession. Hitting the ledge before falling back down the side of the cliff will not be considered recovery. And this is noting that "2007 output" was enitrely basd on financial products/services gains that are not coming back, since those unstable landmines are still popping off, and will popoff for years to come.
"Years" means anything more than one, says Websters. Including centuries.
I just wish I was smart enough to profit on the paranoia of the uber-rich. Garden of eden yachts, 2012 rocket rides....all I can come up with is my Amish Protection Service. I need to think bigger. Hmm...maybe my underground pyramid compound can be marketed...don't think I will make the 2012 cutoff, what is the next end of the world event? Can't check my Mayan calendar....
The first favor of our
was Mint Chip to the For 19 advance-fee fraud types, and the bottom flavor for us is Rocky Road?
This economy brought to you by the letter "L"!
There is NO such thing as a jobless recovery
Exactly. The whole point of an economy is to provide jobs.
20th century: Eastern front was always fucked up.
21st century: Western front is always fucked up.
I keep seeing good corporate earnings everywhere, many at record levels. Financial institutions are making huge amounts. And the commentators extoll the wonders of the upswing of the recovery.
So really, what does it matter about these small details (high unemployment, no job creation, vacant storefronts, empty hotels, poor sales)?
Let's just listen to happy tune...
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
And that isnt a brownie at the bottom of the cone to catch the drips. Its
poo
It's 1931 alright, but throw in 2 endless wars raging far far away as an added bonus...
blackhat wrote:
Hahahaha! Just thinking of the Staypuft scene but with
instead makes me 
...
blackhat wrote:
Reconciliation Recession. I like it.
Sta Puft Marshmallow Recovery. I like it.
Rick Moranis can play Timmay Giethner in the remake and this time they don't save NYC.
black dog wrote:
What a 20th century idea of economics you have. Unemployment is lowest at the highest incomes. The point of the economy is now to provide jobs for the rich.
Young Tim has got the reich stuff...
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
You didn't have the thrill of nukes in unstable nations in 1931. I live 60 miles from Iran. That is some fun, fun shit.
Bernanke saved us from a depression? Huh? That's propaganda from a complicit media.
We have over 11% of the population on food stamps. U6 unemployment is at 17%. Household debt levels are still at record levels. Millions and millions of people are losing their homes. Millions and millions of homeowners are underwater and coming to grips with insolvency. The American middle class has been decimated. Banks are on Government life support. States are facing record deficits. Public and private pensions are massively underfunded. Net national savings are negative for the first time since the Great Depression.
Oh yeah, Bernanke "saved" us from a depression. Bullsh%t. Bernanke and Greensham caused a depression. Only Wall Streeters and their bonuses have been "saved".
Which is worse - bankers or terrorists wrote:
East or West of Iran?
"The whole point of an economy is to provide jobs."
The whole point of an economy is to provide tasks for robots and Asian penny slaves. The bling goes to Wall Street. Fix it for ya.
Vonbek, here's your opportunity.
Cinco-X wrote:
South - Dubai.
The IMF Cannot Help Greece « The Baseline Scenario
Face it...Without devaluation or default, the U.S. economy is KO'd. It's a credit contraction and there are no more worthy borrowers left to replace the ones who've gone belly up.
As twisted as it is, I hope they either default or devalue sooner rather than later. If they don't, we'll be mired in Japanese-style deflation for 20+ years which sucks balls worse as the only investment that does well is cash.
VOLCKER RULE STICK A FORK IN IT!
from recent Financial Times interview with Paul Volcker
PV: Well, we’ve got a problem in governing in this country..., our inability to deal with very large evident problems is apparent. I spent half of my career worrying about public service and the efficiency and effectiveness error. I must say I’ve gotten a little cynical. I headed two commissions on this subject and I kind of feel what am I here for? Nothing’s happened. It’s gotten worse; not better.
BINGO !
PV: It used to be one of the advantages of the Federal Reserve was I thought that was an institution that was generally considered to be competent, professional, independent and trusted. Not unanimously, but more than 20 per cent. I think some of that’s been lost. It’s a big challenge right now. That’s one of our most important institutions. So we have a real rebuilding job to do...
The Obama admin and our corptocracy infested Congress have NO WILL to change the status quo so the US economy will continue its over-dependence on Financial capitalism ( asset bubbles, ponzi schemes ) and Americans will get more 'extend and pretend' and kicking of the can down the road....
You don't work at that bargain electronics store in Dubai, Crazy Ahmadinejad's?
...i'm looking to pick up some speakers
"I live 60 miles from Iran. That is some fun, fun shit."
Name one country that Iranians have attacked during last 200 years...
Lol. My wife watched that with me for the first time a couple of months ago. She said there were striking similarities between some of my ideas and the good Doctor.
Could this be layerliz?
Or Mrs.mp? Come on people, fess up. Which one of you has been taking candids in your bunkerdome?
LoserBeachBum wrote:
The concern we all have is not necessarily an attack itself, but mere escalation leading to the closing down of the Strait of Hormuz. That's 40% of the world's oil tanker traffic. That would be quite the economic shock.
UFC 86
Greece Vs Persia
2 old bitter rivals duke it out again in mixed martial-law arts in the octogone, 2 countries go in and only one comes out.
44 Drachmas, Pay-Per-View
LoserBeachBum wrote:
USA 1979.
Anonymous Bosch wrote:
I think Lawyerliz is probably much hotter than that.
I keep seeing good corporate earnings everywhere, many at record levels.
2009 earnings had two benefits I don't see occurring in 2010.
1) The biggest profits were booked by financials. Earnings were based on faulty models that didn't take into account strategic defaulters in cure rates. I don't think they can kick the can to 2011.
2) DX went from 89 to 74 (back to 81 now). S & P 500 companies have ~ half of their earnings overseas. Huge tailwind on repatriated earnings. Now it is a headwind.
To the topic. Yes, Pianalto is somewhat pessimistic given what we hear from other fed officials. The post sounds like Let Them Down Easy. I haven't noticed statements from her previously, so this is like getting to know fed sentiment a little better.
I still have the impression she and all the others are basing their expectations on postwar recession/recovery experience, a mistake in my view. Not that the feedback loops we stress here aren't noted at the fed. They're not, apparently, given much weight.
For the record, I do too.
Cascaded L shaped recovery.
How's the runout look like?
"USA 1979. "
And what caused that? Americans together with Brits toppled over DEMOCRATICALLY elected leader in the 1950's and installed that puppet Shah. Ruled with weapons provided by Americans for decades. How those natives dared, don't they know Americans are here to HELP!
Battle of Marathon re-enactment, first round?
Shill wrote:
Yada, yada, yada. Sometimes the obvious - simply isn't. Compare:
This from Feb 8: Doug Kass: The US Consumer Is Sick And You Should Go Short Retail With Impunity
with this: SPDR Series Trust SPDR Retail E ETF Chart - Yahoo! Finance
Sandra sez...
Anecdotal evidence #413:
I got an email from a contact I work with in WESTERN PA [heart of their metals working region - casting, powdered metallurgy & machining]. He scanned an article from a local regional paper in the Dubois/St Mary's area... it discussed the current business climate after the deluge - disasterous - no shock as many of the companies there feed directly into automotive - a lot of it in Cleveland. I don't have a link and the scan is barely readable BUT the basic theme is it will take a decade to get back to 2007 levels.
Yes that is correct - they figure it will take until 2017 or so for output & employment to equal 2007 levels.
Half the people I know there agree with the article - the other half are more pessimistic and wonder if it will EVER return to 2007 levels. I too have my doubts - it is beautiful country but ten years is a long time to put your skills on hold waiting for a return to what was at the time 'unsustainable'.
EDIT
LoserBeachBum wrote:
Embassies are considered sovereign territory... and there was that whole Iran/Iraq war...
I Yawn. Curbs are in place for the shorts....
US puts new curbs on short-selling - Business- msnbc.com
Ahmadinejadarius Persepolis?
I profit; have a nice nap.
The worldwide debts are bad enough but, to paraphrase an erstwhile President, it's the interest, stupid.
Debt service alone is likely to founder us at the rate we're going.
.
.
.
If a single tentacled monstrosity can afford $13 billion in bonuses, their profits must be staggering. Investigations, prosecutions, convictions and trillion dollar fines.
dryfly wrote:
When the textile mills of central Massachusetts finally went back to work after the temporary closures it was with their grandchildren making Digital Equipment computers.
CSPAN Bernanke Feed
C-SPAN Video Player - Congressional Hearings On Capitol Hill
Billed as an "expert on the Great Depression". Hee hee
And then there was Churchill drawing imaginary lines on the Arabian peninsula...
Illusion / delusion
Freego Walkabout wrote:
That's why Corporate Income Tax receipts were down from Q42008 to Q42009, right? Due to those record profits. I don't think so.
As kids we longed for recess because our butts were getting sore. As adults we dread recession because our butts are already sore.
But Dum is profiting.....pennies are now a profit, I'll have to get me some.
Rob Dawg wrote:
Exactly.
It already has taken years.
Shill,
We differ. So be it.
No problem ( white flag )
Question about the new SEC short sale curb ruling.
Could it be because they know there's a really big drop coming?
Really big
but had to ask.
Metals are just about to go Green.....Platinum is leading the way...up $11
Rob Dawg wrote:
OT: In the late 80s, I worked with some of the Lincoln folks who turned down that crazy Ken Olsen when he left Lincoln Lab to start DEC. They were a tad bitter.
They came for the teachers jobs, but I wasn't a teacher and didn't have kids so I didn't care...
Bernanke probing Goldman's dealings with Greece - MarketWatch
well now, if it effects markets that is capitalism as long as the banks prosper. but if it effects a country and could cause a global collapse and could effect the fed...well maybe we will look at it.
Unemployed philosophy professors go first, i think, followed by political science profs.
Outsider wrote:
IIRC: It doesn't take effect for six months.
Rob Dawg wrote:
Reminds me of a story I saw about GD1, where a guy had bought some RCA stock in the late 20s (comparable to CSCO in the late 90s). He sold it for the same price - 25 years later.
It will probably take CSCO a lot longer than 25 years to get back to 80 unless hyperinflation kicks in.
Dude, that is like, totally, you know, like, the bomb and stuff.
JP wrote:
Yeah, Greece will be back on seashell-based currency before then.
JP wrote:
Well, at least 60 days, then maybe six months, tops.....
Press Release: SEC Approves Short Selling Restrictions; 2010-26; Feb. 24, 2010
The rule will become effective 60 days after the date of publication of the release in the Federal Register, and then market participants will have six months to comply with the requirements.
JP wrote:
Ahhh yes. Pining for the days of ivory towers at Draper.
dryfly wrote:
Yes that is correct - they figure it will take until 2017 or so for output & employment to equal 2007 levels.
The real economy doesn't matter anymore. It's clear that no one in high places even gives a sh!t as long as they can paint the tape and keep the Idle American Survivors shopping Wal-Mart and their retirements locked up on Wall*Street.
The pay here is horrible, but it's got an amazing view.
phil grahm said we had a "mental recession"
Can't we just all agree to have a "mental v shaped recovery" and be done with this?
Anyone recall computer maker WANG, I was roaming the halls when he was growing big time. I was in TOWER 1 in Lowell / Chelmsford at the time.
Looking back, those were the good ole days for sure, Jobs aplenty if you had the skills.
Pay here is low too, but I get perks. I am quite fond of my daily naps. Naps are very underrated.
Hard to believe Geithner was the most deserving Fed President to put in charge of Treasury.
A small study of 39 people found that a midday nap helped them in memory exercises. Those who napped performed 20 percent better than those who didn't. Researchers believe the sleep may help clear out a part of the brain called the hippocampus -- the brain's short-term memory storage -- and make room for new learning and information.
Catnaps May Reboot Your Brain, Aid Memory - CBS News
Vonbek777 wrote:
If the accounting was done right Spain would have the highest GDP in the world.
Vonbek777 wrote:
Naps are very under-productive.
.
Too quote V...
" How did this happen? Who's to blame? Well certainly there are those more responsible than others, and they will be held accountable, but again truth be told, if you're looking for the guilty, you need only look into a mirror."
...and we'd all eat dinner @ 11:00 pm?
Naps are good, problem is I never have enough time to take one, or sit still long enough.
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
Blisters on my fingers!
Word has it that Helter Skelter was a response to a Pete Townsend challenge. Whatever, blew my teenybopper mind. Manson's too.
to which I'll add:
YouTube - Primus - Those Damned Blue-Collar Tweekers
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
Yup... and be in bed by 2AM and home by 4AM.
Vonbek777 wrote:
There's a way to get to 32 hour workweeks. [Says the guy with a couch in his workspace.]
Not if you write by the light of the moon. Naps are essential to my productivity.
vonbek777
i agree that naps are very underated,i personally am very long on naps.
dryfly wrote:
"So, to sum up, while we are likely now in a period of recovery, it doesn't really feel much like one."
No it feels like a recession. Period. Or as a wise man once said, " If it walks like a duck, and quacks like a duck, ........"
dryfly wrote:
Rob Dawg wrote:
---I've got a couch in my folks basement too, Dawg.
Greece to Attempt to Issue Bond Next Week
Greece now plans to issue a 10-year bond next week to coincide with the government announcement of a new €2 billion to €3 billion austerity package,WSJ reports.
Let's see how this goes. Will they sneak somebody in to buy it?
Government debt markets remained under heavy pressure.
Greece to Issue Bond Next Week - WSJ.com
Should be entertaining to say the least.
Don't diss naps.
The Greeks close down every day for their afternoon naps.
And look at them.
Oh, wait a minute...
.
.......in fact, it may take decades........
12th Percentile wrote:
I would prefer a "mental G-20 unanimous sovereign default" and reboot the mainframe.
Black Star Ranch wrote:
There are two dreaded 'D' words you won't hear from the fed...
shill wrote:
Funnier than Richard Pryor at his peak.
Which is worse - bankers or terrorists wrote:
make that three 'D' words you won't hear from the fed...
So how do you fight an idea? Sweep it under the rug, pretend it doesn't exist. Say it can't happen. Wash out the mouths of those who say the dirty words...
Which is worse - bankers or terrorists wrote:
And like Pryor it appears Greece wants to light itself on fire.
dryfly wrote:
You can add "deflationary depression" and that makes it 5 "D" words.
Vonbek777 wrote:
You applying for a job at the fed or something? Asking us to help with your cover letter?
Putsch yourself in the Greeks position?
.........Now? It's about time, I would think!
.........unless you exclude a few planes, then it's down .6%
.........since it's all been off-shored elsewhere by now anyway
.
Sorry, just getting caught up
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
More like "potlatch" if they start rioting seriously.
dryfly wrote:
I actually have a deep and abiding respect for the Greeks in the streets right now. They get it....the amount of money in the world is decreasing and the rich are keeping what's left for themselves. The elite are basically telling workers to go fuck themselves because the elite have central banks, the Bank of International Settlements, Interpol, and riot police. I seriously have great respect for the Greeks, Spaniards, and Portuguese in the streets right now. Nothing will really change until this neoliberal hierarchist economic model is switched out for something else. Since Americans create it, they are emotionally attached to it and can't let it go, so we won't.
So much abiding respect that I'd like to fly up there and Drew Brees some Molotov cocktails with them. I mean, if the airport was open.
Which is worse - bankers or terrorists wrote:
Depression is already one of them... I assumed that.
Anything else? What am I thinking... of course...
makes five.
Fed might want to just ban the letter D and be done with it.
Early in the day at the casino, but look at the divergence in SPY between the block trades and retail:
Money Flows: Buying on Weakness - Markets Data Center - WSJ.com
Not sure if it means anything, just made me go 'hmmmmm'
Vonbek777 wrote:
With a better one.
Which is worse - bankers or terrorists wrote:
Lately, I'm more reminded of Dick Gregory.
Which is worse - bankers or terrorists wrote:
Lending Falls at Epic Pace - WSJ.com
I work hard, don't get me wrong...but having freed myself, I hope never to do an 'honest' day of work again. I will take my dad's offer of becoming Gilligan on the S.S. Minnow before going back.
tg wrote:
No, with a LOUDER one. Jeez, don't you guys read any other blogs?
Rob Dawg wrote:
Re: Fed's Pianalto: "May take years to get back to 2007 level of output"
Sandy baby has obviously been reading the CR blog!
Catch you all later - got meatings to prepare for.
Got my smile for the morning
dryfly wrote:
Is that what you call your 2 am gatherings?
http://s.wsj.net/public/resources/MWimages/MW-AD647_obama__MD_20100225104053.jpg
Is Pelosi's skin getting tighter or is it the camera angle?
And look at Joe, he has the look of...." Hmm would I or wouldn't I "
Speaking of output, any real news as to why the JPY almost charged into an 88 handle this morning? Unwinding USD carry trade?
no, most nights those are the 4am ones......:grin:
Shill, that is a great picture. Perfect. Obama has that look: "It's hard to soar like an eagle with these two turkeys weighing me down."
shill wrote:
Maybe the Germans will buy it with all the Greek gold the Nazis looted. Just their way of saying 'Thanks, no hard feelings'.
"no, most nights those are the 4am ones......:grin: "
Why the f*ck cows have to be milked like 5 am...could you teach them to full themselves at 2 pm?
Serious
Yesterday I posted about the "End the Fed" poster that has been on the side of a big metal box, probably power, for years in front of the Capitol
Today I drove by and it was gone. Seriously creepy.
Rob Dawg wrote:
No, with a LOUDER one. Jeez, don't you guys read any other blogs?
Louder? Why not just own the main channels of communication, then monetize them? Money = free speech. The more money you spend, the more your voice counts. Hey, it works well for lobbyists.
You have an admirer Nova.
Which is worse - bankers or terrorists wrote:
I think the prevailing winds will protect you from the fallout.....
nova wrote:
Biology. Sleep required for milk production...if I remember correctly.
Shouldn't the Greeks blame the Italians, as it was Il Duce's ill-advised invasion that set the wheels in motion, no?
shill wrote:
Think about it; if you make more money (after accounting for deflation) by hiding your cash in your mattress, then TPTB cannot skim any off the top.
We have a visual on the target.
Very weird von Beck. Probably a coincident
Rob Dawg wrote:
Didn't they do a stint making shoes before shipping that industry off to Korea in the late '70s?
Unfortunately, cows haven't been engineered for convenience yet. They require milking every 12 hours - pick your schedule: usually 6 AM, 6PM; 5 AM, 5PM, etc. Time to get the Japanese or Germans on this.
I said I wanted to take a foto of it for posting here...
Vonbek777 wrote:
So put them in a dark box 24/7 and get more milk? Surprised nobody has tried that.
If you're serious about taking Real Action, you could do the following;
Please, please let's avoid encouraging people to contact their representatives. That's not real action. It takes no real commitment, no real time. And the people on the receiving end are well aware of that and accord it the weight it's due.
More cynically--and I'm firmly in the Greenwald school on this one--when you send your emails and make your calls, our sold-out Dems on the Hill smile and say, "Guess they're still dumb enough to think we care. Our little kabuki games must be working."
"Capitalism is irresponsibility organized into a system." -- Emil Brunner
by goinsouth on Thu Feb 25, 2010 at 05:01:07 AM PST
Daily Kos :: Comments Breaking: Game Over.
CaptainMorgan wrote:
So put them in a dark box 24/7 and get more milk? Surprised nobody has tried that.
The dark box is usually chocolate milk...
** The rules put in a so-called circuit breaker for stock prices, restricting for the rest of a trading session and the next one any short-selling of a stock that has dropped 10 percent or more.**
Under the new rule, once a "circuit breaker" has been triggered, short-selling in the affected stock will be permitted only if the price is above the current highest bid for the stock.
ok, it's a nothingburger. last price of xyz is 40. I place my short sale order at 40.05. If it gets; taken , i'm short. and i continue to lower my offer til i'm unhappy with the price i'd receive, or until it's taken.
Result? stock still goes down, albeit a tiny bit slower
At some level, the rest of the economy is suffereing from the same credit-driven overcapacity as the RE market. It's probably not as bad, but it's still there. For more than a decade, j6pk has been trying to borrow his way to prosperity. The debt pushers have been happy enable that fantasy because they thought that bundling debts would reduce their risks, and besides the bonuses don't get clawed back. The negative savings rate has enabled, builders, carmakers and the rest to canabilize future demand today. Well the future is here, and it isn't pretty.
The belief that more credit is always good, for business, for consumers, and for the economy as a whole has been pervasive and has led to great misallocation of resources. Look, stability isn't everything. Where multiple equilibria are possible, the most stable one is usually the complete clusterf@ck where there is little to no credit and economic acitvity is severely constrained. Experiments in microcredit have shown that even small additional amounts of credit can be of great benefit in improving economic efficiency and therefore the lives of people living in the third world. But IMHO we have long since passed levels where additional credit are beneficial in the long term. Instead of productive assets, the main use of this excess has been to temporarily stimulate demand. Secondarily, it has expanded CAPACITY to service that demand. I suspect that very little of that money has improved EFFICIENCY and PRODUCITIVY. So now debt has grown faster than ability to service it. Now that people are forced to service the debt used to finance past consumption, present demand is slipping.
Point well taken Cinco
km4 wrote:
"Capitalism is getting fucked" - Tony Montana
The very reason why this blog has a following, is the exact same reason it would be watched. No paranoia needed for this one. Brits sent undercover agents to local meetings of highly intelligent intellectual groups. Easier to do today.
Vonbek777 wrote:
Well, at least the CIA and Interpol will be investing well.
Black Star Ranch wrote:
WOW! That young wife of yours is a randy one; how much longer do you think you can keep up?
Which is worse - bankers or terrorists wrote:
2nd smile of the morning
"The very reason why this blog has a following, is the exact same reason it would be watched."
Where else you get the cow milking schedules
Perfect stuff for the Mad Max days coming 
Which is worse - bankers or terrorists wrote:
... or getting slumdogged.
Somehow this seems so appropriate. A Leonard Cohen classic written just for us on a day like today.
Everybody knows that the dice are loaded
Everybody rolls with their fingers crossed
Everybody knows that the war is over
Everybody knows the good guys lost
Everybody knows the fight was fixed
The poor stay poor, the rich get rich
That's how it goes
Everybody knows
Everybody knows that the boat is leaking
Everybody knows that the captain lied
Everybody got this broken feeling
Like their father or their dog just died
Everybody talking to their pockets
Everybody wants a box of chocolates
And a long stem rose
Everybody knows
Everybody knows that you love me baby
Everybody knows that you really do
Everybody knows that you've been faithful
Ah give or take a night or two
Everybody knows you've been discreet
But there were so many people you just had to meet
Without your clothes
And everybody knows
Everybody knows, everybody knows
That's how it goes
Everybody knows
Everybody knows, everybody knows
That's how it goes
Everybody knows
And everybody knows that it's now or never
Everybody knows that it's me or you
And everybody knows that you live forever
Ah when you've done a line or two
Everybody knows the deal is rotten
Old Black Joe's still pickin' cotton
For your ribbons and bows
And everybody knows
And everybody knows that the Plague is coming
Everybody knows that it's moving fast
Everybody knows that the naked man and woman
Are just a shining artifact of the past
Everybody knows the scene is dead
But there's gonna be a meter on your bed
That will disclose
What everybody knows
And everybody knows that you're in trouble
Everybody knows what you've been through
From the bloody cross on top of Calvary
To the beach of Malibu
Everybody knows it's coming apart
Take one last look at this Sacred Heart
Before it blows
And everybody knows
Everybody knows, everybody knows
That's how it goes
Everybody knows
Oh everybody knows, everybody knows
That's how it goes
Everybody knows
Everybody knows
Big Brother, you're like a brother to me. Just wanted to let you know.
Vonbek777 wrote:
I saw tom turkey strolling across the road this morning. It seem too cold for them to be mating here in MA, but who knows...
Cinco-X wrote:
And luggage and others. I simplified for effect.
I just don't see the non-coastal northeast surviving. Terminal demographics, missing industrial base, ancient infrastructure.
Our friends are probably NSA types working for yet unnamed departments under a generic Technology management tag.
LoserBeachBum wrote:
Many, maybe all dairy require twice daily milking; it's certainly true for goats. Thus, a 2:00PM milking would result in a corresponding 2:00AM milking. 7:00AM/7:00PM would be my choice.
Vonbek777 wrote:
Our friends are probably NSA types working for yet unnamed departments under a generic Technology management tag.
Just doing their part to secure the Homeland for the Reichstag. I hear the money's good, though. Sieg Heil!
"it may take years just to get back to the level of output we enjoyed in 2007"
Given that it is now 2010, that is a pretty safe estimate to make.
Rob Dawg wrote:
I took a flight from Saudi Arabia to JFK and drove home through to upstate NY over Christmas. I was surprised how backward the Northeast US looked compared to Saudi.
I can see all this shit happening again.
Bernanke is selling a 'sophisticated monitoring system' with 'domain experts'.
What ever happened to the 'Financial NTSB' idea? That's something that might have stood a chance.
Wonder what the personality profile is for that. Money has to be good to bring in talent...but you don't want an anarchist in the midst. Well, maybe if you are holding his family hostage...Sieg Heil!!!
ResistanceIsFeudal wrote:
I think it's nice that we say hi to them. Hello friends!
this blog entry is well worth reading, a few good graphs and tables.
Inner Workings » Blog Archive » Dave’s Top 10 Reasons to Fade the Recovery (It’s Not a Business Cycle!)
"This is NOT a business cycle: this is a one-time reversal of twenty years of inflation of the household balance sheet. An aging populationneeds a 10% savings rate (at least) to meet minimum funding requirements for the biggest retirement wave in US history (comparable to Japan’s retirement wave during the “lost decade” of the 1990s). With 17% effective unemployment, many Americans are dis-saving, after a $6 trillion shock to home equity."
My wife works as a manager for a dairy nutrition lab, you wouldn't believe how much of an operation it is to get that glass of moo juice for you cookies....
I can see how all the dairy farmers are losing money.
Rob Dawg wrote:
I'm not so sure. They have water, reasonable farm land, empty old cities with some great architecture, a canal system for transportation. Not for everyone, but not like the Sunbelt or the South, which will become unlivable backwaters.
And this is analysis from a California Native.
PPT staunches the decline at 10.2k. Will it hold?
ResistanceIsFeudal wrote:
Don't ask about the whipped cream.
Rob Dawg wrote:
There's still a furniture industry out in Gardner, Orange and Athol. It's funny, but when you drive through Orange and Athol, it's like time travel back 30-40 years.
Comrade Rally Monkey wrote:
Yeah, mostly.
There's some weirdness with displaying orders too, I don't know if they're allowed to show your 40.05 offer until the bid goes to 40.01. Which might make it a bit harder to get in.
Mostly
though, except for making the proles feel good about kicking the shorties.
Rob Dawg wrote:
I added detail to be anal.....
If not too much debt is taken on, it might do better than the urban areas near the coasts. Certainly a lot more livable IMHO...
shill wrote:
I think it may be more nuanced than that. While its only one data point(myself), I can assure you that since recently coming into the world of being debt-free, I have zero intention to EVER give my money to anyone who will charge interest. If I want something, I will wait to buy it. Many of my friends, who were once addicted to their Credit Cards, have since taken on my same ideology.
I have a credit score ~800, and plenty of cash flow now to 'take on debt', but the thought just makes me sick now.
adornosghost wrote:
Yes they do have all that and it won't matter. And this from a Western Massachusetts native. FD, with my lottery money I'd like to buy a few hundred acres in the Berkshires and a D5 to construct an executive fly-in resort for golf and x-country skiing. Camp Curry for the G5 crowd.
Surprised no one has said we will close green yet.
Cinco-X wrote:
The recession is over (we've had 2 quarters of growth); the depression continues.
blog de famila, por favor
Fair Economist wrote:
No Pearl today. I was concerned that her harping about MERS would do her no good.
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
Subject of many jokes in this area......
Which is worse - bankers or terrorists wrote:
I spent Christmas in Charleston, WV. They're hardworking, good people having a very hard time.
Our friends are probably NSA types working for yet unnamed departments
Here is some
I was watching Enemy of the State (1998) a few weeks ago. When Gene Hackman pulled up the rogue NSA dude's (Jon Voigt) file his birthday was september 11th.
adornosghost wrote:
---Take it easy, man.
Vonbek777 wrote:
Wonder what the personality profile is for that. Money has to be good to bring in talent.
Psychologically-immature introvert with authoritarian leanings, probably pretty naive politically, but idealistic and generally conservative. Believes in paternalistic authority, so probably had a strong or even abusive father. As a smart introvert, probably had his share of social conditioning via bullying so will be very receptive to shows of physical force and dominance.
(note: I'm no profiler. It's all b.s.)
edit: meeting calls...
Rob Dawg wrote:
I lived in New York for 4 years and loved it. Western Massachusetts is beautiful, and I used to travel through there frequently.
Mary L. Schapiro, said the rule would force short sellers to stand in the back of the line, unable to sell shares until all actual owners who wanted to sell had been able to do
that is different wording.
Anyone have a linky to the actual rule? i'm looking everywhere. Gotta know the rules if were gonna play the game
Just look where the population could live before air conditioning way back when, and that cuts out a lot of the people living in the SW and SE presently.
Floating this to all:
I'm looking for a web savy, code writing, stats knowledgable, nerdie
type to help me out with a new venture. Some familiarity w/ Drupal or WordPress's new ranking widget might be necessary. This is not spec work; but, I cant afford the moon either.
I just can't get over 'The Race is not to the Swift' quote from Bush's inaugural. Now they attribute it to the Thomas Jefferson quote..but he was quoting Ecclesiastes 9:11. Loki playing with our heads.
Hey
I saw bunches of people dial 911 in movies in the buildup to 9/11.
Cinco-X wrote:
I irks me no end that GovDebt spending is not only counted as a positive contributor to GDP but isn't counted as a negative. Subtract out the 1.4T uncle sugar rush and then subtract out future "repayment" costs and GDP doesn't look so hot.
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
In Venco, I have seen a couple of industrial properties converted to churches recently. I guess the loading doors make for an easy move in/out.
HomeGnome wrote:
Can you imagine Atlanta or Mobile without aircon?
They would go back to being cities of less than 100,000.
Survey a few years back showed largest group of americans claimed german heritage. What with the german inclination to authoritarianism, I was alarmed even then.
ghostfaceinvestah wrote:
Twenty year reversal puts my calendar back to 1990. Couldn't we easily push it back to the end of the Volker days or even back to leaving the partial gold standard for the Guns & Butter expenses?
The Quiet Coup in May, 2009
If the IMF’s staff could speak freely about the U.S., it would tell us what it tells all countries in this situation: recovery will fail unless we break the financial oligarchy that is blocking essential reform. And if we are to prevent a true depression, we’re running out of time.
I wonder what the IMF staff would say today?
and parasites won and run Wash DC!
low ambition wrote:
Hey
FYI:
47% Oppose Public Option Health Plan; 58% Oppose If Workers Forced To Change Coverage - Rasmussen Reports™
For many a Greek it must feel like a Buns in the Gutter economy, no?
toyota
ghosts in the shell
A big issue is that GDP is not likely to be a good measure of well-being going forward. Things people want now either officially show up as reductions in GDP, like time for family or fun, or are poorly provided for by market economies and need government intervention (healthcare and national security). A healthcare reform that encouraged more preventative care would reduce GDP because it's cheaper than emergency care - yet we'd be better off.
Not only may it be a long time before we get to 2007 output, it's not clear that should be a goal.
I agree in fact I have not owned a Credit card myself personally in over 12 + years. Or a debit card. Funny you should bring that up. I just took a quick ride to the post office to mail a bill ( Mass F'en excise tax JOKE! ) Anyhow I was 5th in line everyone else besides myself used a Credit card for payment. So when I finally got the clerk I said
" I will use an Oxymoron and pay cash " well that was it, the clerk and I were talking briefly about how he never uses credit cards how he owns none and so on and so fourth. Nice guy gentlemen.
Why the digital footprint people? and WHAT? no one has any cash!?
Thanks JD. I take the quote personal. That quote stayed with me from childhood. I was drawn to it. Amazing how many people in history have quoted it. Not implying conspiracy...just the 'coincidence' blowing my mind. Honest to god, I didn't even think about the 911 emergency connection on Sept. 11...I thought of the bible quote first.
low ambition wrote:
Just like a typical Scots/Irish, trying to shift the blame...
dude, 19 out of 20 dollars are in the ether.
Final Rule: Short Sales; Release No. 34-50103; July 28, 2004
OT: Gordan Brown seems to have access to the forces of hell. Who knew.
U.K.'s Brown denies unleashing 'forces of hell' - MarketWatch
I understand that JD, but were talking $10 here at the post office...on credit? Come on.
All 5 people?
Great quote. Desperate times call for desperate acts of bullying.
shill wrote:
Cash is for criminals and terrorists. You do business with cash, you are one!
Government is growing, get used to it. After all, business sure isn't hiring, now is it?
As we roll through the great changes in our economy, look to the comfort of the news from 1931- it certainly reads like today.
I can only imagine who will be reading the records of what took place here, and what conclusions they will draw.
As for the Fed, they are just along for the ride, the great debt destruction game has to go on, and the players have to keep on dancing if they can to stay ahead of the destruction of the weakest.
To all the cash payers out there, why pay cash for everything- only use cash with real folks. The rest can get credit cards and eat the 3%.
Someday this war's gonna end...
shill wrote:
I used hawala for a while, but tired of the mysterious NSA types that started following me, and missed the frequent-flyer miles.
Clatto Verata N... Necktie... Neckturn... Nickel... It's an "N" word, it's definitely an "N" word! Clatto... Verata... N-
[coughs]
Ash: [pause] Okay... that's it!
I know they beat this horse last night
shill wrote:
Well, if you're not doing anything wrong, why worry about the digital footprint? Also, your cash doesn't buy you insurance on the product you're purchasing or an extended warranty. And you have a difficult time renting a car, purchasing a plane ticket, and so on. Having had to travel for business on many occasions, CCs can be a lifesaver. I'd hated to have had to pony up all that money in advance and then wait to be reimbursed.
I've had credit cards for over 20 years, and have never once paid interest. The problem with CCs is the same as the problem with drugs and alcohol; some folks can handle them, and some can't.
I posted this last night but thought it useful to reiterate.
My wife's company has gone from continuous hiring to a 5% headcount reduction.
I have a friend who works at University of Hayward and their department is cutting between 12% - 15%. Most likely happening in other departments as well.
Looks like 2nd down-wave is starting.
shill wrote:
I enjoy the 2+% deposit into my Fido account each month.
tg wrote:
Eh. What could go wrong?
[Epitaph for the US 1769-2012]
JP wrote:
He does have a rather sinister look in some candid pictures.....
We keep out quatloos fully stocked with 2-ply.
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
Thanks for sharing...
Eric wrote:
Dude, where is this 2% per month?
Bernanke was just quoted as saying that the CRE news is not all bad.
Got your shorts in?
I got steve now, for a couple of hours. So I can say anything!
Bernanke Defends Fed’s Ability to Supervise Banks
- NY Times
WASHINGTON — The Federal Reserve chairman, Ben S. Bernanke, urged senators on Thursday not to strip the central bank of its authority to supervise the country’s largest banks, warning that to do so would pose a “grave risk.”
I thought Greenspan was the most amoral scumbag Fed chrm but BB is giving him a good run for the $$$
Which is worse - bankers or terrorists wrote:
Cashback on the credit card.
Charles Schwab has a credit card that pays 2% of your balance at the end if the month into your brokerage account.
We put everything onto it and pay off in full at the end of the month.
Which is worse - bankers or terrorists wrote:
With the other zeros and ones on that hard disk, that will soon be dead electrons.
adornosghost wrote:
Boy I'd sure like to know the end of THAT sentence......
....but I'm too cheap to subscribe
San Diego Reader | Too Much Debt, Too Few Jobs
Worthwhile read.
"Welsh foresees woes for three to five years but says they may stretch out to ten. Excessive government debt will be unwinding along with excessive consumer debt. “Governments will be raising taxes and cutting back on services. It’s a debt pandemic,” he says. That will be a double-whammy on ailing households. Politicians won’t level with the public: “If you get out of the foxhole, you have your head blown off.” Says Welsh grimly, “There could be riots. There could be violence when politicians start telling people the truth.”"
Cinco-X wrote:
You just wanted to keep him from fixing the typo so the joke becames semicomprehensible.
you missed by a mile.
will have to consult the mogamban guru for the actual figure.
{so caught}
Cinco-X wrote:
Your wife gets your grocery club discount purchase history to enter into the divorce record that you were buying condoms and lots of alcohol. You weren't doing anything wrong so what's the problem? Your Fastrack account shows you averaged 68mph between Newton and Sturbridge. Ticket. Your combined retail purchases for 2009 appear to be much larger than your AGI reported. The IRS wants to know why.
S'Okay, you have an innocent explanation for all of them. And all you need do is prove it.
I was under the impression that he was kidnapped by hostile Gururians, and being held hostage for bouillon...