".....first-time claims for unemployment insurance unexpectedly increased last week"
......another "unexpectedly" claim. Either these "experts" are dumber than a bag of rocks, or they're outright liars. I'd guess it's a combination of both.
The worst of the school layoffs has not even started. RIF notices go out in the next two weeks, but the layoffs actually happen in July. FY 2011-2012 will be even worse, and hopefully, the bottom. Schools and local government lag private sector layoffs by 18-24 months due to the time for tax revenues to flow through. Recovery for schools and local government will also lag by 18-24 months.
I was with a Realtor friend yesterday and we were discussing our slow descent into the void, over a couple of taco platers...
Joe Baegent really hit the head on the nail with his last posting from somewhere in Mexico, about how Americans are headed down the very same path as our neighbor to the south.
Mexico has a greatly reduced standard of living, compared to 1982.
STATES WITH AN INCREASE OF MORE THAN 1,000
State Change State Supplied Comment
KY +2,510 Layoffs in the automobile and manufacturing industries.
PA +2,813 Layoffs in the construction, service, transportation, and food industries.
NC +5,897 Layoffs in the construction, furniture, stone/clay/glass, and mining industries.
NC's #1 baby!! (said in my best Dick Vitale impersonation)
A two-notch downgrade would take S&P's rating on Greece to BBB- - the lowest level accepted by the European Central Bank as collateral for loans. Moody's current rating on Greece is A2, although that may be lowered soon.
[I]n Asia, the Nikkei 225 stock average fell one per cent; ...Hong Kong's Hang Seng fell 0.3 per FTSE 100 index was down 0.36 per cent, Frankfurt's DAX declined 0.04 per cent while the Paris CAC 40 lost 0.48 per cent.
"The Commerce Department said in a second report that orders for big-ticket manufactured goods shot up in January by the 3 percent, the most in six months.
But much of that gain resulted from a surge in orders for aircraft. Excluding transportation, durable goods orders fell by 0.6 percent, a weaker showing than economists had expected."
Well, up here snow means livelihoods particularly for a pile of small business and self-employed (not to mention resort areas). Seems to me that would 'even out' a bit but perhaps its too small. Also city/town/state workers keep REAL busy keeping the roads clear, etc.
Black Star Ranch is right; everything that happens is 'unexpected', so we have to conclude that the experts know nothing... yet they expect to be believed when they make longer-term forecasts. It is time to call an idiot an idiot. If whoever is making forecasts is always wrong, why do media keep going back to them??? (Answer: they are idiots, too.)
Feb. 25 (Bloomberg) -- German unemployment increased less than economists forecast in February as government subsidies helped limit firings even as the economy’s recovery stalled.
The number of people out of work rose a seasonally adjusted 7,000 to 3.43 million, the Nuremberg-based Federal Labor Agency said today. Economists forecast an increase of 16,000, according to the median of 31 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey. The jobless rate rose to 8.2 percent from 8.1 percent.
Germany’s economy failed to grow in the fourth quarter, largely due to a drop in domestic demand, and the government in January extended incentives to encourage companies to keep workers on payrolls. Still, consumers remain concerned about job cuts and consumer confidence will probably decline for a fifth month in March, market research company GfK said yesterday.
“Unemployment is still bound to increase somewhat,” said Carsten Brzeski, an economist at ING Group in Brussels. “However, the worsening should be short-lived” as recent economic data and “wage settlements with job guarantees point to a stabilization of the labor market around the summer.”
.... I am thinking a new government stimulus along the lines of "Cash for Toyota trade-in for Mercedes" should help us help the Germans...
From reading about budget cuts for county and state services in No. VA. it looks like the plan is:
Trim for now with layoffs and minor reductions in services
Increase taxes and re institute ones that were dropped during the good years
Run a deficit and borrow
Get federal gov money where ever possible
Probably some creative accounting
Why? Because they are still expecting life to get better in the next 2 years.
My university career fair is today. This will be my sixth one. I feel like companies stopped hiring civil engineering students at about my second career fair. I'm still going to give it my best today
Circumnavigating the Sierra last week, we saw almost no construction going on, aside from watching some of the new construction methods being utilized on a few small jobs in June Lake and on a condo just off the slopes of Heavenly in Tahoe.
...both efforts were all about particle board and Tyvek. It was shocking to see the junk they were using @ 7,000 to 9,000 feet, for construction materials.
I have been reading CR for a long time, but I have never posted before.
As many have noted here over the past number of month, employment is the Achilles heel of this "recovery".
The US is transitioning from final demand as function of access to credit to final demand as function of income. No jobs, no income, no spending.
The Rockefeller report on the decline in state tax revenues, especially sales tax revenues, reflects the weakness of final demand. Sales tax receipts capture the shadow economy as well and are hard to fudge.
Bernanke, Summers and the other Keynesians in government are hoping that asset price inflation will somehow translate into consumer spending. They don't seem to realize that debt needs to be serviced. They also don't seem to realize that government is a major contributing factor to our economic problems.
Issuing debt to solve a crisis of too much debt will not work in the long run. The federal bureaucrats are transferring the debt of the irresponsible (both private and public) to society as a whole and to the responsible in particular. What happens once the wealth of the responsible has been confiscated via taxes and unemployment? It's not a pretty picture. Keynesian economics will be discredited, but the cost will be enormous.
I have one last comment on yesterday's residential real estate threads. People who are buying residential real estate have to be making a bet on high inflation rates. While people own the property they buy in a legal sense, they essentially have a ground lease in an economic sense given the power of the state to tax property. Bankrupt states will continue to go after property owners by raising tax rates. This will result in a massive transfer of wealth from property owners to government. In general, prices will be capped by ever increasing tax rates because affordability is a function of Pand I, insurance and taxes. As taxes constitute a higher percentage of the monthly payment, the price of the property must decline.
SA #s rise, but NSA #s fall. What gives?
At least the continuing claims are going...never mind.
Trailing indicator, move along.
Is it because of the weather
Hmmm....looks like we may have found the sticking point
Twin Peaks??
Eventually this could get serious.
Just continued bleeding...A slow descent into squalor.
My daughter told me today her high school has turned off every other light in the halls. She said they are calling it "South Park High" now
......another "unexpectedly" claim. Either these "experts" are dumber than a bag of rocks, or they're outright liars. I'd guess it's a combination of both.
I was expecting a decrease this week. I'll have to check the NSAs.
More on the school layoffs, cuts, etc...
L.A. school district sued over teacher layoffs - Yahoo! News
And our friends the Germans are also experiencing increases in unemployment, again.
I am surprised they don't take this opportunity to blame global warming.
"When we need a billion (dollars) next year," Cooper said, "these are going to look like the good times."
The budget cuts, state agencies said, will mean some state workers will lose their jobs.
The state Department of Education said a $4.6 million cut would mean one-quarter of staffers could lose their jobs, Ott said.
Cuts abound in state budget plan - Local / Metro - TheState.com
gaby, dumluk and vtcodger, left a response in
thread
My daughter told me today her high school has turned off every other light in the halls.
Sounds like the Moscow airport circa 1990.
Chainsaw wrote:
The worst of the school layoffs has not even started. RIF notices go out in the next two weeks, but the layoffs actually happen in July. FY 2011-2012 will be even worse, and hopefully, the bottom. Schools and local government lag private sector layoffs by 18-24 months due to the time for tax revenues to flow through. Recovery for schools and local government will also lag by 18-24 months.
I was with a Realtor friend yesterday and we were discussing our slow descent into the void, over a couple of taco platers...
Joe Baegent really hit the head on the nail with his last posting from somewhere in Mexico, about how Americans are headed down the very same path as our neighbor to the south.
Mexico has a greatly reduced standard of living, compared to 1982.
You have to wreck your currency, to get there.
got that but left tidbit for you
STATES WITH AN INCREASE OF MORE THAN 1,000
State Change State Supplied Comment
KY +2,510 Layoffs in the automobile and manufacturing industries.
PA +2,813 Layoffs in the construction, service, transportation, and food industries.
NC +5,897 Layoffs in the construction, furniture, stone/clay/glass, and mining industries.
NC's #1 baby!! (said in my best Dick Vitale impersonation)
Either these "experts" are dumber than a bag of rocks, or they're outright liars. I'd guess it's a combination of both.
Getting ahead means toeing the company line.
February 25 , 2010
Kendle International Inc - Job Cuts Coming?
City of Wildwood - 30
Steuben Glass - Layoffs, Unknown Number
February 24 , 2010
Glen Ridge NJ - 2 Police Recruits
Update: Yuma City Employees - 16 Hours More of Furloughs
Irish airline Aer Lingus ( International ) Plans - 1,100
Wheaton College - Job Cuts Coming and Tuition Hike
Ripon Printers - 13
Troy Michigan - Tax Increase Rejected - 47 Layoffs Very Possible
Lafayette Indiana Alcoa - 17
Albion College - 15
The Oregonian - 37
The city of Roanoke Water Sewage Gas and Filter Plant - 2
Post Danmark and Sweden’s Postn AB International - 2,000
Fort Mill School SC - 30 Possible Job Cuts
The town of Oro Valley AZ - 2 Building Inspectors
Santa Ana Unified trustees - Voted 126 Layoffs Next School Year
Update: Bakersfield City School District Ca - Approves 120 by Next School Year
Temecula Valley Unified school District - 150
Stockton Unified School District - 200 Layoff Notices by March 15
Belleayre Mountain Ski Center - 59
Lake Norman Regional Medical Center - < 50 Temporary Laid off
Update: Visalia Unified School District - 26
Merced City School District - 19 Layoff Notices
Lenovo - 32
The Dryden Central School District - 17 Possible
Ford Motor Credit Business Center in Mauldin SC - 100
Muni May Transit - 170
Jackson Memorial Hospital - Cut up to 1,000 Jobs
NYC Transit Agency - 1,000
Update: ABC News - 300 to 400
February 23 , 2010
HP - Layoffs this week, Unknown Number
Update: State of Georgia - Up to 5,000 Job Cuts Possible
Pratt & Whitney Connecticut - 163
Car dealer Pendragon ( International ) - 190
ABC News - Hundreds of Buyouts Coming Tomorrow
Carrefour ( International ) - 1,700 Layoffs, and 21 Retail Store Closings
Cabarrus County - 76
MaineToday Media - More Layoffs Coming in March Possibly
University of Illinois’ Urbana campus - 9
Buzzi Unicem plant in Pryor's MidAmerica Industrial Park - 1/2 of Workforce or 55 Temp Layoffs?
Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc - 60
San Rafael school District - 37 Job Cuts Notices
Community Regional Medical Center - 38
The Port Huron Area School - 27
Stafford Township NJ - 5
The Kansas State athletic department - 8
Rock Hill School District SC - 31 Layoffs Possible
Update: San Francisco Ca School Teachers - 900+ Jobs on the Line
Monster Worldwide Inc - 200
Invista - 50 in Wilmington Area
The Dothan City Schools - 131 to 220 Job Cuts Possible
Metropolitan Transportation Authority of NYC - Layoffs to be Announced Today
Update: Boeing Puget Sound Area - 527
Goodrich Corporation in Jamestown - 60
February 22 , 2010
Sacramento County Ca - 111 More Job Cuts
Randolph Township NJ School Board - Warns 25 Layoffs and More Program Cuts
Bunge in Dansville - 100
Pfizer Pearl River Facility - 72 More Layoffs
Continental Airlines Inc. - 600 Reservation Agents
Covenant Doors & Millwork Neb. - 30
Swiss Post ( International ) - 100
The Shasta Union High District - 25 Layoff Notices
St. Peter's College in Jersey City - 14
Fresno's Community Regional Medical Center - 38
Innovative Consultants LLC - 287
Port Huron Area School District - 27
Merced Irrigation District - 24
Viking Range Corporation - 20
Santa Monica-Malibu Unified School District - 92 Likely
Waterford CT - 75 Accepted Furloughs no Layoffs
City of Corona - 31
Triosyn - 35
Update: Jersey City - 279
The Mississippi Board of Education - 6
Daily Job Cuts - Layoff News , Job Layoffs 2009 , Bankruptcy, Store closings and other Business Economy News
Just do a monthly search on here and the amount of School layoffs is gaining strength.
But all is well I assure you, we are in a recovery......................to the down side.
So harsh. Where's the love? They're not unemployed, they're vacationing in Cannes
or at the Olympics.
Jobless claims rise on snow-related layoffs - Yahoo! Finance
OT:
Metro - Stock markets head for lower open amid worries about European economy
Jobless claims rise on snow-related layoffs - Yahoo! Finance
Well at least there's a legitimate reason for these layoffs.....
That's a big one, it's a French chain of dept-food stores that are all over the place.
Snow makes some sense - and that should be over pretty quickly - but "clearing out backlog" just means prior weeks were too low.
best wishes
same source
Durable Goods Orders...
"The Commerce Department said in a second report that orders for big-ticket manufactured goods shot up in January by the 3 percent, the most in six months.
But much of that gain resulted from a surge in orders for aircraft. Excluding transportation, durable goods orders fell by 0.6 percent, a weaker showing than economists had expected."
Maybe the next StimPac can include money for new expectors.
CNN Political Ticker: All politics, all the time Blog Archive - CNN Poll: Health care provisions popular but overall bills unpopular « - Blogs from CNN.com
CNN Poll: Only 25% want Dems to pass their health bills....
Dow about to get sodomized at the opening.
CR - You've removed "we have probably seen the high for this cycle in unemployment claims" from the statement. Have you changed your view?
Well, up here snow means livelihoods particularly for a pile of small business and self-employed (not to mention resort areas). Seems to me that would 'even out' a bit but perhaps its too small. Also city/town/state workers keep REAL busy keeping the roads clear, etc.
I can deal with frozen water beating down retail sales, but it's a bit of a snow-job to pin layoffs on the weather.
AP Story...
"Bad weather can cause job losses in construction and other industries sensitive to weather."
Yeah, I'm sure that's what's causing the job losses in construction. Couldn't be the RRE and CRE implosion or anything.
Doofus wrote:
Black Star Ranch is right; everything that happens is 'unexpected', so we have to conclude that the experts know nothing... yet they expect to be believed when they make longer-term forecasts. It is time to call an idiot an idiot. If whoever is making forecasts is always wrong, why do media keep going back to them??? (Answer: they are idiots, too.)
HomeGnome wrote:
Isn't there a waiting period before a claim can be paid? like a week at least? if so many may be back to work and the claim dropped.
Cinco-X wrote:
from the report "Bad weather can cause job losses in construction and other industries sensitive to weather."
Do we have construction in winter? There is also weather related hiring.
Eric quoted:
I guess there really is porn of all kinds on the internet..........
German February Unemployment Rises Less Than Forecast (Update1) - Bloomberg.com
Feb. 25 (Bloomberg) -- German unemployment increased less than economists forecast in February as government subsidies helped limit firings even as the economy’s recovery stalled.
The number of people out of work rose a seasonally adjusted 7,000 to 3.43 million, the Nuremberg-based Federal Labor Agency said today. Economists forecast an increase of 16,000, according to the median of 31 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey. The jobless rate rose to 8.2 percent from 8.1 percent.
Germany’s economy failed to grow in the fourth quarter, largely due to a drop in domestic demand, and the government in January extended incentives to encourage companies to keep workers on payrolls. Still, consumers remain concerned about job cuts and consumer confidence will probably decline for a fifth month in March, market research company GfK said yesterday.
“Unemployment is still bound to increase somewhat,” said Carsten Brzeski, an economist at ING Group in Brussels. “However, the worsening should be short-lived” as recent economic data and “wage settlements with job guarantees point to a stabilization of the labor market around the summer.”
.... I am thinking a new government stimulus along the lines of "Cash for Toyota trade-in for Mercedes" should help us help the Germans...
http://i235.photobucket.com/albums/ee193/Punkrock_BJ/kermit-the-frog.jpg
From reading about budget cuts for county and state services in No. VA. it looks like the plan is:
Trim for now with layoffs and minor reductions in services
Increase taxes and re institute ones that were dropped during the good years
Run a deficit and borrow
Get federal gov money where ever possible
Probably some creative accounting
Why? Because they are still expecting life to get better in the next 2 years.
I'd guess it's a combination of both.
You can't lie unless you know the truth.
wally wrote:
betyerass I didn't see that one coming
You missed the unexpected subtitle to that story...
New jobless claims rise unexpectedly as heavy snow in Northeast boosts layoffs
Imagine
Not the Lennon masterpiece, A Perfect Circle remake...and yet I find myself listening to this version more these days.
My university career fair is today. This will be my sixth one. I feel like companies stopped hiring civil engineering students at about my second career fair. I'm still going to give it my best today
Circumnavigating the Sierra last week, we saw almost no construction going on, aside from watching some of the new construction methods being utilized on a few small jobs in June Lake and on a condo just off the slopes of Heavenly in Tahoe.
...both efforts were all about particle board and Tyvek. It was shocking to see the junk they were using @ 7,000 to 9,000 feet, for construction materials.
j diggles jr, good luck!
I have been reading CR for a long time, but I have never posted before.
As many have noted here over the past number of month, employment is the Achilles heel of this "recovery".
The US is transitioning from final demand as function of access to credit to final demand as function of income. No jobs, no income, no spending.
The Rockefeller report on the decline in state tax revenues, especially sales tax revenues, reflects the weakness of final demand. Sales tax receipts capture the shadow economy as well and are hard to fudge.
Bernanke, Summers and the other Keynesians in government are hoping that asset price inflation will somehow translate into consumer spending. They don't seem to realize that debt needs to be serviced. They also don't seem to realize that government is a major contributing factor to our economic problems.
Issuing debt to solve a crisis of too much debt will not work in the long run. The federal bureaucrats are transferring the debt of the irresponsible (both private and public) to society as a whole and to the responsible in particular. What happens once the wealth of the responsible has been confiscated via taxes and unemployment? It's not a pretty picture. Keynesian economics will be discredited, but the cost will be enormous.
I have one last comment on yesterday's residential real estate threads. People who are buying residential real estate have to be making a bet on high inflation rates. While people own the property they buy in a legal sense, they essentially have a ground lease in an economic sense given the power of the state to tax property. Bankrupt states will continue to go after property owners by raising tax rates. This will result in a massive transfer of wealth from property owners to government. In general, prices will be capped by ever increasing tax rates because affordability is a function of Pand I, insurance and taxes. As taxes constitute a higher percentage of the monthly payment, the price of the property must decline.
Best regards to all.
Here comes the sequel!
jUST cHECKING
hELLO1
We need a job summit... oh we that?
Then we need to save or create more jobs, mo money mo money to fill that widening hole.
YEAH