Finally. Do they not realize how popular this data is?

"Vonbek777 (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Tue, 2/23/2010 - 12:42 pm

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Still like my idea of starting an Amish protection service. APS, you need us, we need you! "

Gonna take forever for them to get to my house with their whip and buggy.

Vegas, Florida, Arizona......right on schedule just as we all have been saying for the past few years.

Conspiracy theory's confirmed.

The first up-tick is fed programs creating distortions against correction.
The second up-tick will be inflation.
Having adjusted the second uptick for inflation I suspect we'll get no movement for 10 years.

Since an up tick == a recovery will we see symmetry where a subsequent down tick will be declared a double dip? No hardly.

fudge_hend wrote:

Bubble 2.0?

Echo-bubble.

RD,

Quite agree. So I suggest the vertically neutral recovery tick ------------

--bh

From the previous thread " Greek bank run "

Good read here...truly a Tic Tic Tic situation / grand experiment going to take place.

Safe Haven | The Beginning of the Endgame is Coming???

I don't think we've really seen capitulation in most places yet. People still believe in Real Estate faux wealth making schemes. Until thats completely dead I don't think we can rule out a second bubble. I don't think it will happen, but I don't rule it out as a possiblility. The average citizen continues to amaze me with their stupidity.

poic,
I found that truck you were talking about earlier:

http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3244/2837833640_42b59bd217.jpg?v=0

From the pigged thread.

Multi-generational, we have it going here. The wifes daughter and grandson moved in with us about a year ago.
Only one job interview for her since they've been here. Shes now decided to go back to school to brush up on her jobs skills. The grandson is 30 months old and driving me nuts.

Hep me Jebus!

Unfortunately, the government's prop job will be undone in 2010 when

A) the 2009 crowd of FHA borrowers who had no business buying meet the brick wall called reality and walk.

B) interest rates rise

C) house credit not re-extended

D) double dip

E) short sales/foreclosures finally start flowing with vigor

F) the option of renting improves as rent continues to decline

G) all of the above

fudge_hend wrote:

People still believe in Real Estate faux wealth making schemes.

Of all the FTHB I know of, not a single one failed to mention the word investment and for most was the overwhelming reason to buy.

Most would not be in a financial shape to buy if it weren't for the $8k tax credit.

fudge_hend wrote:

Several cities are showing price increases in 2009 - San Diego, San Francisco, Boston, Washington D.C., Denver and Dallas.

Bubble 2.0?

Mostly cities that are late for the party, I'm assuming for San Diego is that it's sales moving up the food chain altering the balance.

Response to C-S "up": Shiny

Wait, this isn't a plateau of permanently increased prosperity? Bartender!!!

Jonathan,

quite right. State's have actually been able to defer really painful cuts on the education-side/fire/police side plus local government. it's actually quite a big and ugly shoe to drop.

I expect more headlines of suprise unrecovery followed by suprise less-worse-so-let's-name-it-recovery headlines.

--bh

Catching up. I take it someone explained to shill that a fossil isn't always a former dinosaur....

n0OB
Volumes looking decent today; at least higher than during the past week. Maybe that explains the downward action so far today.

Here's the thing -- I have a buddy who does real estate in Vegas. Figgy'd he would be stuck between a noose, cyanide, or flying off the roof of the Palms. Yet he claims he's doing great, making mad bank. I cant figure out how or why.

DC will never go while Old Glory ripples in the wind on a CVN

RD,

Nothing can save Fresno. Or Modesto. Or Stockton. Lost. Now you might be able to hold the line at Bakersfield to the South and regrettably Sacremento will be saved to the North.

--bh

Hiring Freezes Hamper Weatherization Plan - NY Times

Can we rewrite this as Freezing Weather HAMPers hiring? Gotta blame something.

Externalized Costs wrote:
Tell me another lie about the recovery act and the 2.5 million jobs saved or created, my hopium is running out.
Hopium manufacture and distribution will be a growth industry for years to come. One of the few, perhaps.

I suspect of the country have median declines of ~50% because they have a relatively stable mix of houses that meet location, quality, and size requirements and a catastrophic loss in other areas.

Look on a map at locations of REO housing and you get a good feel for the area, this needs to be broken down into zip codes to really see what is going on.

In reference to DC being the last to fall, historically do capitals outlive the empire?..do empires outlive their capitals in stages of decline?...

badger wrote:

You don't see many happy 40-year-olds with toddlers.

That's because the toddlers often belong to their teenage daughters.....

Vonbek777 wrote:

In reference to DC being the last to fall, historically do capitals outlive the empire?..do empires outlive their capitals in stages of decline?...

Constantinople outlived the Roman Empire by 1000 years, give or take a century....

badger,

40 year olds with toddlers is recreational fare around these parts--nova can confirm. Now 50 year olds with toddlers, that's the real trick around here. Is it dad or grandpa walking little trust-fund-jimmy or janey? --> entirely fictitious scenario of course because the brazilian nanny does the child rearing stuff, direct face-to-face time is for the unwashed...

--bh

badger wrote:

You don't see many happy 40-year-olds with toddlers.

You will see quite a few more in the coming years but many more in the higher income strata...

PPT staging a valiant pre-opening effort.....

traffic-cam shot of poic's truck driver:
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_OBDmnBhLMmk/SPc6spJdsZI/AAAAAAAAArc/hU1Qs0YpNTc/s320/ElmoTruck.jpg

Cinco-X wrote:
Constantinople outlived the Roman Empire by 1000 years, give or take a century....
Right. The capitol is always a protected state that engenders a privileged class. DC is its own fiefdom.

blackhat wrote:

because the brazilian nanny does the child rearing stuff, direct face-to-face time is for the unwashed...

Yep, that's the reality.

So the Barbarous lost $10 today, which means we will recover $9 of that or better over night with a slight up trend tomorrow and a slight loss on the DXY with a Green DOW.

Do I have the pattern correct? am I missing anything?

I'm set for market open in 4 minutes.

http://www.captaindaves.com/shop/media/cargos-R2886.jpg

http://ep.yimg.com/ca/I/buyinprivate_2094_102557731

Just chiming in on the Boston point: I own a two-fam in Somerville, MA, bought at the tail-end of '01. I've been looking to trade up to a triple decker or a fourplex if possible. However, price to rent is just insane. I saw a triple-decker within five minutes walking distance on sale and determined that the owners want $850K for the building, unoccupied! Further, they claimed I could "easily" rent the units out for $2200/mo - "no problem."

Bullshit. As I said, I own rental property in the area. I know those units wouldn't rent for more than $1500/$1600/mo at best. Anyone who bought in at that price would see an immediate and sustained monthly operating loss. Either you have a lot of money to lose or you'll go bankrupt.

THAT is the Boston market.

It WILL all come crashing down. That price/rent ratio simply cannot be sustained indefinitely.

On dc:

I'd seperate the city from the region.

The region will do fine given it has very close proximity to good food supply and access to fresh water (Shenadoah). The city, no so much.

--bh

" So the Barbarous lost $10 today, which means we will recover $9 of that or better over night with a slight up trend tomorrow and a slight loss on the DXY with a Green DOW.

Do I have the pattern correct? am I missing anything? "

[poic looks at secret decoder paper sent by slumdog. poic squints at directions. buy,sell,sell,hold,hold,buy,buy]

You are in an area of the country where the median age of marriage is somewhere around 30. DC is an outlier.

Why is it that Fat Cat are never investigated for fraud?

When they do it, it's marketing.

If Jimmy sells $10,000 worth of crack per month at a cost $5,000 he can afford that crib in Somerville. Now, just find 4 Jimmys and the place will cash flow. Why make this so difficult?

maynard wrote:

Just chiming in on the Boston point: I own a two-fam in Somerville, MA, bought at the tail-end of '01. I've been looking to trade up to a triple decker or a fourplex if possible. However, price to rent is just insane.

Testify Brother Maynard. We evil landlord types need to form a sub-group here and preach the gospel. I thought CA 120x rents would be a good reentry point back in 2006 back when I got out in the high 200s.. Now, forget it. 80x or nothing. I have MA family who own from Rockport to Worcester to Provincetown.

Cinco-X wrote:

I have to admit that I find myself uncomfortable when someone's rooting for the country to fail to advance their own interests.

OT complication in the "reality is complex" mode - Nixon took a pass on a recount with JFK (margin ~ 1 vote/precinct nationally) - as he thought it would damage the nation...

But ignoring calls from Dwight D Eisenhower, the retiring president, who wanted him to seek an unprecedented presidential recount, Mr Nixon accepted the result and conceded the election to John F Kennedy at 12.45pm on the day after votes were cast.

He told a reporter at the time: "Our country cannot afford the agony of a constitutional crisis and I damn well will not be a party to creating one just to become president or anything else."

In his book, Mr Nixon explained his thinking: "A presidential recount would require up to half a year, during which time the legitimacy of Kennedy's election would be in question. The effect could be devastating to America's foreign relations. I could not subject the country to such a situation."

More than one of Mr Nixon's biographers have suggested that his altruism did not entirely explain his motivation in not challenging the result, as he admitted himself in the book.

"And what if I demanded a recount and it turned out that despite the vote fraud Kennedy had still won? Charges of 'sore loser' would follow me through history and preclude any possibility of a further political career." In the event, Mr Nixon did return to politics after eight years in the wilderness and became president in 1968.

Why beaten Nixon accepted fate - Telegraph

So the Barbarous lost $10 today, which means we will recover $9 of that or better over night with a slight up trend tomorrow and a slight loss on the DXY with a Green DOW.
Do I have the pattern correct? am I missing anything?

Possibly the most on point rejoinder I've found [note the url.

http://www.shillpages.com/movies/whipsaw1935dvdr.jpg

badger wrote:

If Jimmy sells $10,000 worth of crack per month at a cost $5,000 he can afford that crib in Somerville. Now, just find 4 Jimmys and the place will cash flow. Why make this so difficult?

At one time, Somerville was sort of a slum, like Mattapan is today. The Yuppies took over and priced the riff raff out other there in the '90s. Of course, folks thought prices there could never go down, soooo............

badger wrote:
You are in an area of the country where the median age of marriage is somewhere around 30. DC is an outlier.
DC is an alternate universe... the laws of physics are suspended there, much like those of economics...
edit: As if needed,

just in from the sticks.

Must be, because I've been seeing more of them (youngish, 20-30's w/small kids) on the beach in nice weather & walking along the bay front (Newport, OR)--& Newport probably qualifies as in the sticks.

I get my hair cut at the local cosmetology school, most the students seem to be in their 20's, & about 75% of them have a photo of a small child (or two) taped to the mirror at their work space. Most of the ones w/young kids seem to be married, but not all. A couple of them come from 100 miles down the coast to attend the school. I've been afraid to ask if they inquired about the school's job placement rate.

Black Star Ranch wrote:

......see the sign on the door, sweetie, "Grampa does NOT do 'babysitting', 'keeping eyes on', 'watching for just a few minutes', 'entertaining' or anything resembling or to be confused with any activities above."

Just ask Granma. She will do it, wind 'em up and then send 'em home, laughing all the way.

Someday this war's gonna end...

So looking forward, I'm not going to be surprised to see 10% increases in the various housing taxes.

For my wife and I, living in Texas, that translates to $50/month on top of $500, versus the $500 or so of principal and interest.

It won't break us, but it'll be further pressure on house prices.

"Ask Leona Helmsley about that one... just sayin' "

For everyone one like Leona there are thousands who walk scott-free. All Leona showed is don't be a b***h while you're screwing the common man.

energyecon wrote:

OT complication in the "reality is complex" mode - Nixon took a pass on a recount with JFK (margin ~ 1 vote/precinct nationally) - as he thought it would damage the nation...
But ignoring calls from Dwight D Eisenhower, the retiring president, who wanted him to seek an unprecedented presidential recount, Mr Nixon accepted the result and conceded the election to John F Kennedy at 12.45pm on the day after votes were cast.

One of his few more admirable moves. A recount wouldn't have done him any good anyway. The votes he needed from the more Republican Chicago suburbs were eventually found in the early '70s, but they were at the bottom of Lake Michigan. In another of his more admirable moves, he had them destroyed rather than raise the issue again....The exceptions that prove the rule?

Basing your knowledge of events on Nixon's own book! Unreal. Bwwaaahhhhaaaa.

Hank Paulson has one just out. I think he's the hero...

Cinco-X wrote:

At one time, Somerville was sort of a slum, like Mattapan is today.

I can even pinpoint the date. August 1977. Trivia geek note; "mixins" originated with the ice cream not the programmers who stood in lane for a heath and oreo vanilla.

"Toyota chief says safety suffered in name of growth"

>
Is greed and growth the same?

Vonbek777 wrote:

I think one of the problems with society today is the lack of men interacting with their children and grandchildren.

Yep.

shill wrote:

I have friends who own/rent in various outer Boston communities, they still say to this day the price is all about the proximity to Boston. Which is true in some cases, when there is an up trend in the economy, and the job market is fertile.

Quadruple transit fares or let transit service decay to 1970s levels and Boston looks a lot different does it not?

"Toyota chief says safety suffered in name of growth"

Sounds like a Condom add.

"Toyota chief says safety suffered in name of growth"

Sounds like a Condom add.

I'll go with one of the side-effects of those erectile dysfunction thingies--if you notice your growth has not subsided after 4 hours, call a doctor.

--bh

Rob Dawg wrote:

Quadruple transit fares or let transit service decay to 1970s levels and Boston looks a lot different does it not?

make freeways, roads, and street parking cover their land costs equivalent to surrounding $/sq ft rent and it would look different too

are race an(d) income driven.

Yes. I lived almost 1/2 of my life in NY, Queens & LI, and I used to hear about it was the blacks & PRs who had children, young, etc. When I moved to the OR coast (except for tribal members, this part of OR and probably all of OR is or was much much much more dominated by "white" people than LI was when I lived there) & surprise, surprise, it was (mostly) poor whites who were: (1) committing most of the crime--or getting arrested, indicted & convicted anyway-- and (2) providing the population of single moms in their teens.

Externalized Costs wrote:

Tell me another lie about the recovery act and the 2.5 million jobs saved or created, my hopium is running out.

I am amazed that we are even having a discussion about whether the stimulus saved/created jobs. ( there is little distinction between a job saved and a job created). Of course it did. As some people have commented the states were saved from having to make painful cuts because of the stimulus money. The question is and always has been what are the benefits of the jobs created and the cost of the steps taken.

I think one also has to recognize that there are three major schools of thought. The first holds that the trend for economic growth is positive and home prices increase over time. If you can prevent a panic sell off and stabilize things even if the measures taken will only do so temporarily the historic upward trend is your friend and in time that will kick in.

The second school holds that the historic trends for economic growth and appreciating home prices are not valid therefore the trend is not your friend. I don't know what this group believes is the appropriate policy response other than kiss your ass goodbye.

The third school ( which I subscribe to) argues that we would be better off with a sharper correction - as long as one is prepared to nationalize the banking system. The fallout from such a correction is less fearsome than most people expect and that government measures are likely to be more effective and less costly if they are used to lift the economy of a true bottom rather than suspend it above the bottom as current policy aims to do. I am reminded of the time I had an impacted wisdom tooth taken out. The dentist asked whether I wanted to have the other wisdom teeth which were crowding out some other teeth taken out as well. I said no I thought the pain of the impacted one would be enough- too which he responded the pain of that one will be so great you are not going to feel the others! Arguing for a sharper correction is really based on that premise - at some point it is better to get all the pain out of the way quickly and at one time.

ShadowInventory wrote:

RD you said earlier you would buy at 80x rent - is that annual? 80x the annual rent?

Yes. Cap rates are roughly calculated two ways. Monthly rent or annual rent ratios. I sold my last rental in April 2006 for 273x monthly rent. That's 23x by the annual metric.

Don't get too excited about free money. 80x means $1000/mo or $12,000 per year. A mortgaage sans depreciation means a $160,000 house and $30k tied up. Fair but not usurious.

PPT Cruiser out of gas?

"PPT Cruiser out of gas?"

Timmay is sitting by the curb crying and kicking the tires.

I am amazed that we are even having a discussion about whether the stimulus saved/created jobs. ( there is little distinction between a job saved and a job created). Of course it did. As some people have commented the states were saved from having to make painful cuts because of the stimulus money. The question is and always has been what are the benefits of the jobs created and the cost of the steps taken.

Last I read the states are up to their Eyeballs in Hock borrowing to fund UEB....where and what jobs were created.?

But not subways...they just take those deadbeat poor kids to the beach.

Feb. 23 (Bloomberg) -- Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said the financial crisis was “by far” the worst in history and called the recovery from the global recession “extremely unbalanced.”

The world economy has undergone “by far the greatest financial crisis globally ever,” Greenspan said today in a speech to the Credit Union National Association’s Governmental Affairs Conference in Washington. He then laughed and said "But jumpin jeebus I made a killing. So did my friends. We are going to get us some Amish and be set for life after the crash."

Case in point

Two Dozen States’ Unemployment Funds in the Red, Nine More Within Six Months - ProPublica 

Uncle Ar wrote:

I think case-shiller is supposed to measure resales of the same home, so that wouldn't be the case.

It's not like they have only 10 houses who were all priced in the middle.

My father tried to spend time with me when he could, gone saving the world most of the time, made it hard, but when he was around tried to make it count...but the stories he told me of his youth, were all about hunting and fishing and trapping with his grandfathers. His father worked nonstop...not much interaction. The gap between them grew so much...often talks of regrets on that front. You know there are scars when Cat Steven's Father and Son is a favorite song. My primary concerns is for my boys to get male role models. I don't agree with everything my dad does or says but they are going to learn everything he has to teach about hunting, fishing, and trapping God willing.

Toyota: Recalls won't totally fix gas pedal issues - Yahoo! Finance

Oh man, that's a problem

My male role model was Mick Jagger. He never calls just like real dad.

My guess is that at best it is a coincident indicator - therefore of no value in terms helping figure out where we are going to be. I am not even sure that as a coincident indicator it is of much value because I think the impact of the media is so great -that I think it is more reflective of what people are hearing and seeing not what is actually going on.

RayOnTheFarm wrote:

Improvement is in the eye of the beholder. From what I see, lots of people are hunkering down.

Rightsizing.

nova wrote:

We are going to get us some Amish

That gift again!

Btw., not familiar with the expression 'We are going to get us some Amish...'

shill wrote:

Last I read the states are up to their Eyeballs in Hock borrowing to fund UEB....where and what jobs were created.?

I think any jobs created and or saved was only temporary; the stimulus just allowed the states to pave over their budget holes for another year. Just like subprime loans allowed people to "buy" houses they couldn't actually afford, the stimulus allowed states to "save" jobs and programs they couldn't afford. Sort of like giving people who spend more money than they make every month a loan to keep themselves afloat; unless they can get their spending in line with their income, you are only throwing money (that you are not going to see back) at the problem to "extend and pretend".

sm_landlord wrote:

Don't people start to cheer up when things are improving?

Perhaps, but they will also cheer up when they "think" things are going to improve. And even if things are good, if they think that the situation is going to be worse in the future, their moods will take the opposite swing.....hence, leading-

Cinco-X wrote:

I thought it was considered leading; you won't have a recovery until "after" confidence improves, and a decline can cause a self fulfilling turn of events.

yeah but people only become more confident after they have got a job i.e. the economy has improved. It sounds like a very circular indicator to me.

"given all the doomster of this board what do you think the unemployment situation would have been without any Government action?"

Fed or government?

I think unemployment would be much lower without the Fed's activities.

Contrary to popular belief it was not the Fed that stemmed the panic in the fall of 2008, it was the FDIC and the Treasury through guaranteeing bank lending.

Look at the Fed's major activity - buying MBS. IMHO all that really did was provide a small, temporary support to house prices, at the expense of killing the dollar vs commodities.

We would be better off today with gas at $2 a gallon and mortgage rates at 6.5%, then gas at $3 and mortgage rates at 5%.

Don't know enough about the stimulus to know if it made any damn difference, I do know there are a lot of people out there who have cut back on spending in the face of future tax increases, myself included. In general I don't think government spending adds anything to the economy.

Inverted Hammer of Thor wrote:

I think any jobs created and or saved was only temporary;

I happen to agree with that - but that is not the same as saying no jobs were created or saved by the stimulus.

Perhaps, but they will also cheer up when they "think" things are going to improve. And even if things are good, if they think that the situation is going to be worse in the future, their moods will take the opposite swing.....hence, leading-

Post of the day....and right on the Mark Cinco

Lack of Leadership!

Bingo!

Given the quality of what is 'official' economic data these days, the 'indicator' of consumer or business confidence could be viewed as relevant in the same terms.

crazyv wrote:

does anybody think that consumer confidence means anything? Is it a leading or a lagging indicator?

Leading--consumer expectations are 3% of the LEI. See page 4 of this PDF:

http://www.conference-board.org/pdf_free/economics/bci/mvisiting.pdf

NateTG wrote:

Don't get too excited about free money. 80x means $1000/mo or $12,000 per year. A mortgaage sans depreciation means a $160,000 house and $30k tied up. Fair but not usurious.

Am I missing some context here since I can't make $1,000/month and 80x work out to $160,000?

Sure you can. This is landlord math. Bankrate says at 6.25% $1000 is a fixed 30y $160,000 mortgage.

Being overweight can have it's benefits.

Woman says her love handles saved her life - Yahoo! News

As Florida lawmakers scramble to lower unemployment taxes, stimulus funds untapped

D'oh !

crazyv wrote:

It seems to me you folks can't have it both ways.

You've been around this board long enough to know better than that....

Later gators. Off to music class with my boys. My contributions, see I missed the hunting, fishing, and trapping lessons. So I filled it in with philosophy, music, and old stories. Maybe with both my father's lessons, and mine...well Paladin was always a favorite.

Hard to imagine what the cheer-up factor would be without jobs; real jobs; making stuff; exporting it. Or at the very least, making stuff and having customers who could afford it here.

nova wrote:

"Getting me some Amish." It can be interperted but it depends on your economic background. In Greenspan speak it is very similiar to "Gotta get me a Juan and get them bushes trimmed."

Got it; them wide assed amish horses do pull the plow quite nicely!

O had a great bunch of elites that knew how to get him elected, best in their field and he wan't let them go home. His bad, and ours also.

Rob Dawg wrote:

Seriously, this was perhaps the worst aspect of the Great Bubble. Big houses, tiny lots. Sad.

Nothing a few bulldozers couldn't fix.

Big houses, tiny lots. How else do you away all the toys? Public Storage is sooooo plebeian.

Public Storage is sooooo plebeian.

Plus the cooking smells from the family in the next unit ruin everything!

RayOnTheFarm wrote:

Before or after the notice of default ?

After the NOD, before the resale with an actual yard where the neighboring house used to be.

The day in pictures:
ETF Map - Exchange Traded Funds Map Heatmap

sm_landlord wrote:

Rob Dawg wrote:

Seriously, this was perhaps the worst aspect of the Great Bubble. Big houses, tiny lots. Sad.

Nothing a few bulldozers couldn't fix.

Gawd I love it when my own words come back to me 4 years later. If we can get her ass off that back fence we can plow a few furrows in Santa Paula eh?

I continue to be surprised by the density cadre. It didn't work. It didn't work in the 1860s, the 1900s or the 1940s. The 1990s were a bubble aberration. Europe was our our counterexample. Why won't we learn?

Rob Dawg wrote:

Europe was our our counterexample. Why won't we learn?

Too many people want to be like Europe. It looks quaint as long as you don't have to actually live like that.

"Too many people want to be like Europe. It looks quaint as long as you don't have to actually live like that. "

Europe works for some people, doesn't work for others. Same as the US or Canada.

I know people who love living in Europe and don't want to live anywhere else.
I also know people who moved to the US and would never think about moving back.

I do get the distinct impression that many Americans who think they would like to live in Europe would not like the sacrifices they have to make in terms of living style, size/location of living abode.

Rob Dawg,
How many houses do you think would actually get bulldozed?

Detroit seems to need far more than they actually do, but if a entity can sell a house for more than they can get for the vacant lot, why would they go through the expense to bulldoze?

Vacant lots are also a nuisance and a problem for cities.

Anonymous Bosch wrote:

It took us only 7 years to get our backyard lot from the city.

........what the heck were THEY doing with it?

February 23, 2010

"Tens of thousands of people across Spain held demonstrations Feb. 23 against the government’s plan to raise the retirement age, AFP reported. The country’s two largest unions, the General Union of Workers and The Workers’ Commissions, called for the demonstrations in several major cities, including Madrid, Valencia and Barcelona. More protests are planned until March 6 in the rest of the country."

LOL......

MaryAnn wrote:

O had a great bunch of elites that knew how to get him elected,

Obama had one very smart person - David Plouffe his campaign manager. But I think it is rewriting history to suggest that the elites supported Obama.- most of the seasoned campaign professionals and donors went with Hilary. The problem is that Obama once he was elected decided to seek the approval of those who had shunned him and shunned those who had supported him. I do believe that by the end of the campaign he had begun to internalize all the references to the Mesiah and started to believe that he had won this by himself. Hilary as the loser did a better job of taking care of her people than did Obama.

fudge_hend wrote:

forcing an much higher level urbanization of the existing lands within.

That's why the Pearl district was cleaned up and rebuilt.

edit: Eventually they get torn down and become available to next door prop owners in as Side Yard Project. (For got the actual name)

It was only 2 years ago that 2 houses right next to us were refurbished. They were derelicts left over from the S&L debacle. Of the revolving 25K I mentioned, about 6,000 get torn down every year.

In order to qualify, we had to submit an improvement plan. (At the time the lot was brick rubble.) Our plan included a deck and flower/vegetable beds. We followed our plan pretty closely in the long run.

RE wrote:

biggest problem now is the dramatic increase in racism.

Differentiation was driven by decreasing marginal utility and the bubble caused overshoot.

Reversal to more conformity.

Same as it ever was.

Rob Dawg wrote:
Europe was our our counterexample. Why won't we learn?
Too many people want to be like Europe. It looks quaint as long as you don't have to actually live like that.
But the US gets its own version of degradation, and I doubt it will be as stable or livable as Europe's. Americans refuse to "settle" for one thing, until they hit the wall and have no other options. After the money's gone, in other words.

Harvard’s Rogoff Sees Sovereign Defaults, ‘Painful’ Austerity - Bloomberg.com

Just a reminder that the Optimistic Bear internet radio show will be airing live tonight (Tuesday the 23rd) at 9:00pm Pacific Time. We will be discussing the past week in economics and finance. Feel free to call in and share your thoughts.

Pomp & Surkanstance: Introducing the Optimistic Bear Weekly Economics and Finance

JP wrote:
Harvard’s Rogoff Sees Sovereign Defaults, ‘Painful’ Austerity - Bloomberg.com
"...from the safety of his ivory tower"

Harvard’s Rogoff Sees Sovereign Defaults, ‘Painful’ Austerity - Bloomberg.com

The endowment fund again?

Comrade Alexei Mikhailovich wrote:

Bimation?

Yeah, that would about take us back to traditional house-to-lot ratios.

It is ironic that average American worker is now more f*cked up with no benefits, no decent healthcare etc etc. than European one. Even taxes paid (plus healthcare) are about equal. Still no strikes, not even a silent beep from them. At best they go postal but usually, just angry silent white fist in the pocket?

Predicting sovereign defaults appears to be in vogue right now.

LoserBeachBum wrote:

Still no strikes, not even a silent beep from them. At best they go postal but usually, just angry silent white fist in the pocket?

....give it time - no one is hungry enough yet......

"Agreed, but it carries with it some eerie similarities to a not so pleasant and not so distant past. I was hoping that Europe had that behind it. Guess not."

My parents live in England down near Dover. As an interracial couple though I would not feel very comfortable living in many parts of the UK or for that matter much of Europe. Every time I've been in the UK I've noticed how segregated most of the population is.

My wife lived in Germany and Switzerland for two years and is much more happy in North America. She never quite felt she was being welcomed that much while living in Europe.

"It is ironic that average American worker is now more f*cked up with no benefits, no decent healthcare etc etc. than European one. Even taxes paid (plus healthcare) are about equal. Still no strikes, not even a silent beep from them. At best they go postal but usually, just angry silent white fist in the pocket?"

Ain't brainwashing great? "America - the land of opportunity", "Land of the free, home of the brave".

I'll bet the Romans were in a similar position at one point, clinging to their delusions of grandeur.

fudge_hend wrote:

(well beyond the publicized Urban Growth Boundry) by setting aside bordering lands that can not even be considered for future urbanization for at minimum 50 years, forcing an much higher level urbanization of the existing lands within.

Wow. Just wow. 15 years plus later and Metro still lies. Imagine. Purchasing density offsets outside the Metro area in exchange for increasing core urbanization.

Why is Greater Los angeles considered to be sprawling when as an Urban area it is by far and away the densest UA in the US? One reason is sinister; planners hate LA for its results despite it having the greatest proportions of planner advocated characteristics of anyplace in the US.

Portland still suffers from a single sentence that accidentally leaked out from a document more than a dozen years ago:

Los Angeles has 51 miles of freeway per one million people
while Portland has over 100 miles per one million people.
[Federal Highway Administration, "Highway Statistics 1998"].
Smart-growth planners in Portland compared Portland to
other major cities for purposes of identifying goals for
Portland's future. Planners concluded that "In public
discussions we gather the general impression that Los
Angeles represents a future to be avoided", but that "with
respect to density and road per capita mileage it displays
an investment pattern we desire to replicate" here in Portland.
[Metro, "Metro Measured", Portland, Ore., May 1994, p. 7].

Metro planners have decided to plan on reducing per capita
freeway mileage from more than 100 miles per million people
to under 70 miles per million, a ratio higher than only three
other major urban areas: Miami, Los Angeles, and Philadelphia.
[Metro, "Region 2040 recommended Alternative Technical
Appendix", Portland, Ore. 9-15-94].

So, Los Angeles' nightmare congestion reputation is the
result of the nation's highest metropolitan densities
(not low density sprawl) coupled with the fewest number
of freeway [centerline] miles per capita. [Randal O'Toole, "The
Vanishing Automobile and other Urban Myths", 2000, pp394-5].

Wow, there's some raw meat.

RE wrote:

I was hoping that Europe had that behind it. Guess not.

It's not just Europe, it's people in general. They have finite limits. Liberalism doesn't want to address that. You fix racism by reducing diversity, not increasing and promoting it. People work in tribes and the further you push their inherent limits, the bigger the snapback when it comes.

Black Star Ranch wrote:

........what the heck were THEY doing with it?

Counting the unpaid taxes as future income-

broward wrote:

I don't have a atrong opinion. I do like Portland's Max train, it's the first mass-transit that convinced me to stop driving. And I like how Seattle and Portland are small enough to walk. The Pearl is clearly more attractive now. OTOH, I don't see how the new tram can possibly be cost-effective.

The current process is probably what you would assume. I've followed it for the several years its been going on. Not surprisingly, if you drill down into the map and look lot by lot where the lines move around, wealthy land owners near the expansion/no expansion line were included in the allowed to be urbanized areas and others were not (not overall, but there is definately a bias that shows).

For the Tram, that was OSHU blackmailing Portland that they would move their new campus to Hillsboro (a suburb) where OSHU has a very large tract of land due to a merger with another institution a few years back. Portland, caved and OSHU got a new tram. A funny story on that: the architect for the Tram won the competition to do the design based upon a proposed wood support structure. This actually wont he competition. Which was then promplty ridiculed and laughed away as preposterous by the actual designers who they hired and we got the steel towers that it currently rest on.

Cinco-X wrote:

Or in Holland. I think that Holland is worried that in some of the larger cities Muslims will become the majority within a few decades.

De Nererlans be my new bridesmaid. Iceland was a wrning. Ireland, Spain, Portugal, nothing but edge effects. When the kid with the finger in the dike goes the rest goes with it.

ResistanceIsFeudal wrote:

We will be a tribal society again before the fat lady sings.

we were, are and will be a tribal society. The only thing is that the definition of tribe changes. I would argue that we have a tribe of bankers- spread all over the world and every member taking care of their own.

broward wrote:

People work in tribes and the further you push their inherent limits, the bigger the snapback when it comes.

I have to go but I don't think it is as simple as that. Europe is really a complex mixture of tribes that eventually formed pretty functional states. Switzerland being the prime example where you have four very distinct population groups (even languages) relatively unified in a single country. However, it takes effort to make that happen and as soon a that disappears problems start to creep up again.

p.s. note that I'm not at all saying that Switzerland is tolerant with foreigners today. I'm purely talking about domestic accommodations for the original minorities.

I hate to reply to myself, but the previously mentioned silo was on an old rail line (naturally) and this is now a DART light rail line, so the value may go up altering the demolition versus land value. It does up the demolition risk and complexity however.

We lived in the M-streets of Dallas previously and watched $200-250k duplexes get demolished and McMansion duplexes put in, with asking prices of $500-750k IIRC, and all for the pleasure of not having much or a yard and sharing a wall with a neighbor. It is a very short commute to down town Dallas from that area, and close to light rail to get to the same. In many areas it may be a tough decision to decide what has more value to potential buyers, vacant lots or low priced housing. One of the issues with demolition is it will take out more low end housing than it will high end.

broward wrote:

it's just about impossible to get 300 million people to work together as a culture.

I think it is about 300 million people not about a monoculture. As I recall when society was far more homogenous and only about 30 million they ended killing a million people in a civil war.

Outsider wrote:

Predicting sovereign defaults appears to be in vogue right now.

Vogue or Bandwagon....?

USA is full of different tribes, "income tribes". You tolerate other races as long as they are within your income bracket. You do not like your own tribe members which earn much less. Especially true within that elite five percent top earners.

pavel.chichikov wrote:

At some point we have to learn how to leave the planet.

Some are more equal than other and won't be getting on the Ark B.

IMHO the journey to the moon taught us far more than actually being on the moon, going to Mars would probably be similar.

pavel.chichikov wrote:
Sure, after we trash this one, we'll need to go some place else. We're bad tenants
Indeed pavel, we're the writ large.

RE wrote:

I have to go but I don't think it is as simple as that

It's more complex, I agree but... it's a substantial element.

People are finite.
Finite in tolerance.
Like classical economics, liberalism likes to assume that certain constraints don't exist.
When you ignore constraints, you get failure.

Rehabbed desiccated California faces scurrying between Mercedes and condo. Vanity shops being shuttered. Floor after floor after floor of unsold property. Architecture with all the taste of a tube of Sensodyne squeezed out to make a smiley face.

That was very good.

Rob Dawg wrote:

De Nererlans be my new bridesmaid. Iceland was a wrning. Ireland, Spain, Portugal, nothing but edge effects. When the kid with the finger in the dike goes the rest goes with it.

Prior to the boom in Nippon in the '80s, De Nederlands was the second largest holder of US assets behind the UK..... There's still a lot of money left over from their colonialist days, which is logical since they always make their partners "Go Dutch"......
http://www.realclearmarkets.com/blog/Is_Greece_Tip_of_Iceberg_022210.pdf Warning: PDF, blah, blah, blah......

Greece has dominated headlines in the financial press recently, but the Hellenic Republic is not the only country with a government debt problem at present. The analysis above finds that some other economies in the euro area, notably Ireland, Portugal and Spain, will also need to implement significant deficit reduction programs in the years ahead. Given its high debt-to-GDP ratio, the Greek government may have less “breathing room” than some of its Euro-zone counterparts. However, governments in Ireland, Portugal and Spain will also need to make major fiscal adjustments in order to stabilize their debt-to-GDP ratios. Outside of the Euro-zone, debt-to-GDP ratios will continue to rise rapidly in Japan, the United Kingdom and the United States if governments in those countries continue along their current fiscal paths.
History shows that governments can achieve significant fiscal corrections. However, belt tightening requires sacrifice, and a government’s ability to deliver adjustment ultimately depends on the willingness of the public to accept painful spending cuts and revenue increases. In order to stabilize its debt-to-GDP ratio, Ireland faces a fiscal adjustment that is more or less as onerous as the correction that is necessary in Greece. However, investors have been more willing to buy Irish government bonds than Greek government bonds due, at least in part, to the willingness of Irish voters to accept the government’s deficit reduction program, at least so far. Strikes by civil servants in Greece to protest wage cuts does not inspire the same degree of confidence among investors. Fiscal adjustment programs in the countries discussed in this report are theoretically possible. The question that investors need to ask themselves is whether the citizenry of each country has the will to bear the pain. Answers to these questions likely will not be forthcoming overnight. Therefore, long-term government bond yields in economies that require significant fiscal adjustments could remain elevated for quite some time.

Anonymous Bosch wrote:

The damage from this bubble isn't something entirely new. The economics of putting people in housing they can't afford to maintain always works out the same way. Ruin.
The place goes to rack and ruin. People move out. The city usually gets aruond to pulling house ruins down before they collapse. There's only so much manpower to keep up with the ruination.
On the plus side, BRICK housing can and does withstand a lot of neglect. The houses next to us were inhabited for a couple of years when we got here in the 90s by bandos. Squatters, they were called then. But even they couldn't keep their act together. The houses were rehabbed from the roof down to the basement, but the BRICKWORK was still in prime condition.

Hey, I went to grad school with some of those bandos!
Which part of Philly? I might have been next door to you drinking some wine.

Of course, they were pretty good squatters, even getting legit connections for power and water.

Someday this war's gonna end...

Should have sent this guy back. Even if he didn't have horns.

Albert Einstein was never fluent in English. Though he lived in the U.S. for decades, he preferred to speak his native language and only hired assistants who could speak German. Consequently, his English vocabulary only consisted of a few hundred words.

Einstein: A Biography; Jurgen Neffe; 2005

broward wrote:

The difference is that Portland is much better suited for $5/gallon gasoline than L.A.

That is incorrect by ever measure of either sustainability or energy intensity or transit share or any metric you care to define.

That Barton Fink Feeling wrote:

denizens in need of an amethyst-driven chakra-rethink to do?

Nice work. You need to think about writing as a career, if you don't already. I would encourage you to steer clear of motivational literature or corporatist paradigm assault efforts a la "who moved my cheese" .

Rob Dawg wrote:

That is incorrect by ever measure of either sustainability or energy intensity

Works fine by my gas gauge when I was living there.

edit: and pocketbook. Much cheaper than when I lived in L.A.

broward wrote:

Rob Dawg wrote:

That is incorrect by ever measure of either sustainability or energy intensity

Works fine by my gas gauge when I was living there.

Yep. Nothing like 5x subsidies to hide the truth.

Why oh why do we fail to see the forest for the trees?
The rustbelt will come back when we need to manufacture things again. Like having somebody go into the factory and do stuff to produce things.

One of the biggest problems I see is that we are always concentrating on the jobs for the elite. Screw 'em, they will always climb on top. Basic jobs for high school grads that don't want college and can't shoot straight enough to go get blown up. Give me a million basic jobs, and I will show you someplace that does alright. Los Angeles, for example, has tons of those basic jobs for basic folks supporting the top of the pyramid. Hot dog shops, small scale manufacturing, etc. The truth of the matter is people with an IQ of 95 need something productive to do, and someone to keep them paid.

One of the primary reasons for government paternalism, is somebody with an IQ of 95 has no business doing business with the squid.

Someday this war's gonna end...

Citizen AllenM wrote:

The rustbelt will come back when we need to manufacture things again.

Nope. I can spec a part and have it in hand in days from South Korea. I get my shirts the same way. There is no rustbelt.

That Barton Fink Feeling wrote:

PDX is very walkable -- that's why I'm here. The Pearl is a costly way to foist the sentimental virtues of New Urbanism on a largely working class city for the benefit of outside money.

The city for the most part is very walkable but its still heavily transit and auto related despite the hype. The downtown residential population is a relatively small percentage of the population, but once you get there walking is very easy. The city planners have decided to force transit and bicycling as modes of transport and force people out of cars. Good or bad, thats been a policy decision and not a market decision.

edit: nor a democratic decision. Public policy is set regardless of public opinion (how many light rail votes passed in Portland?) full disclosure, I'm for light rail.

Rob Dawg wrote:

Nothing like 5x subsidies to hide the truth.

What can I say?
My costs were less and it was easier to ride the train than drive.
You can say it's subsidized by sales and income tax but as near as I can tell, I was paying more in CA.

Rob, if it comes down to robotics, your shirt could come from here as easily.

Outsider wrote:
Why does anyone need to do business with the squid? They're unnecessary, except to themselves.
But they make themselves necessary by inserting themselves into any transaction that they can which is sufficiently profitable to either the buyer or the seller.

1 currency now -yogi wrote:

We don't make exceptions because we like someone or hate someone else

It's not an issue of hate but I was fairly sure somebody would try to make that claim.

It's an issue of WHAT WORKS versus what doesn't.

You're welcome to do what doesn't work if you like.

And when it blows up in your face with extreme racism, I'l ltry to keep my mouth shut.

Rob Dawg wrote:

Thank you for the billions in transit subsidies?

I'd rather ride the train in Portland than drive in L.A.

I'd rather buy an overpriced condo in Portland vs an overpriced house in L.A., and travel 20 minutes per day vs two hours.

I did both, Portland was easier and cheaper.

Because the squid has been interjected into the economic life of this country. Look at the resistance to reforming credit card laws, now what if the natural reaction is to limit use of credit cards? Then what does the squid do for maximum growth of the profits?

Eh, problemo.

Someday this war's gonna end...

broward wrote:

I'd rather ride the train in Portland than drive in L.A ... Portland was easier and cheaper.

No Portland cost you less directly. Big difference. Portland level service for the entire US would exceed GDP.