Short sales?

Why bother?

After all, there is no need to do the bank's work for nuthin'.

Someday this war's gonna end...

I only see the appeal if you have a second mortgage. Otherwise, with a non-recourse, what's the point?

Isn't that an oxymoron? Shouldn't it be Banks Taking It In the Shorts in January.

Who's buying shorts in January? It's FREEZING cold outside where I live. Peeps that jonesin for springtime?

Pigged - Coming to a community near you

Add for Tracy CA 911 service

Tracy CA 911 Operator: Hello. What is your emergency?

Poor Person: Some guy is in the house! I heard gunshots!

Tracy CA 911 Operator: I see. Please hold.

3 minutes later

911 Operator: I see you have not renewed your voluntary subscription to 911 this year. What credit card will you be putting this response on?

Poor Person: Oh my glod! He is coming...whispered quick, hide under the bed. Mummy is getting help.

911 Operator: Hello? Would you like rapid response or same day service?

Boom! Boom! Scream!

OOPS! Lost another citizen to crime! Don't let this happen to you! Call 1-800-555-1212 and ask for Sahib!

What did they do with the TAX money, nova?

This was well above the share of other distressed property activity – damaged real estate owned or REO (13.4%) and move-in ready REO (13.8%)

That and the figure should scare the crap out of the banks into short sales. Half of all REO are damaged. Either short sale the house or take a 50-50 chance the inhabitant is going to take their frustration out on the house. How does this ratio of damaged to undamaged REOs compare historically I wonder. Is this a recent phenom or pretty typical?

The price of Cu might make for a nice overlay on the chart, now that you mention it. You Maniacs! You blew it up! Ah, damn you! Damn you all to hell!

"In contrast, move-in ready REO sells for 99% of listing price, on average."

This via Yun or Lereah?

MLS is not shit. Shit has value. MLS is the vestige of a dying oligarchy. It will lie cheat and steal until excised.

"I only see the appeal if you have a second mortgage. Otherwise, with a non-recourse, what's the point?"

If you refi'd in CA then you mortgage went from non-recourse to recourse. I'm hearing that some of the bigger banks are starting to go after you for the difference as well now. Doesn't seem like a short-sale is worthwhile in CA.

GnomishOne,

I don't know. I can make some guesses. It was all good. Don't worry.

fudge_hend wrote:

Half of all REO are damaged. Either short sale the house or take a 50-50 chance the inhabitant is going to take their frustration out on the house. How does this ratio of damaged to undamaged REOs compare historically I wonder. Is this a recent phenom or pretty typical?

What scares me is that 43% of sales seem to be distressed sales! Please tell me I missed something in that number.

Got Got Popcorn? ?
Neil

Buy a home in bad shape in a town with no future. I like it!

nova wrote:

OOPS! Lost another citizen to crime! Don't let this happen to you! Call 1-800-555-1212 and ask for Sahib!

The charge is for medical emergencies only. Somehow that makes it even more obscene to me.

Somebody from Tracy was quoted as saying that if her husband had a heart attack, she'd be sure to set the dining room table on fire before calling 911.

Dude, we were all, like, you know, let the good times roll, they'll, like never end and stuff.
And we were all, like, ya dude, party on, and like it went, you know, like gnarly on us.
And stuff.
Dude.

U.S. Economic & Interest Rate Outlook
Feb. 22, 2010
Northern Trust
Global Economic Research

PDF: http://web-xp2a-pws.ntrs.com:80/content//media/attachment/data/econ_research/1002/document/us0210.pdf

neil wrote:

What scares me is that 43% of sales seem to be distressed sales! Please tell me I missed something in that number.

Yes, it isn't including those other than the bank who bring a check to the table to sell their house.

95 percent of home buyers now are FHA. Thanks, taxpayers, for picking up the tab when this wave of buyers defaults.

Bobb Dobbs,

You know as well as I do that once they go down that road it is only a matter of time before everything slips away down the additional fee added sewer.

Gerrymandering for service and response times.

Will purchasers now wait for HAFA implementation?

That is the funny thing about 2010. The government is effectively buying everyone a home at current prices, and then some, what with the recent incentive package.

YouTube - UHF You So Stupid

Yeah, but, dude, I like already paid for that stuff, like once already.

My dogs have always been crated whilst I am at work. I like to leave the TV on for them so they have something to listen to while I'm gone. Lately the channel I've been putting on is full of inane chatter and mindless drivel!! Is it dog abuse to leave CNBC on for them all day to listen to?

"What scares me is that 43% of sales seem to be distressed sales!"

That means Al-Qaeda Airline Kamikazes (Or Texas IRS Paranoids) could hit most likely an empty building next time!

"No, Ahmed. They fired everybody last month from that building....too late! Nooooooo*"

*Empty building hit gives you only five "used" virgins in the afterlife.

Gnomish,

No, you see - you leased it. Now you can to bring it back or pay to keep it.

Rob Dawg wrote:

Yes, it isn't including those other than the bank who bring a check to the table to sell their house.

Wimper... those numbers are scary.

I know I was the optimist when this started... dang, we are so close to my definition of a depression. Not quite... but so close.

Got Got Popcorn? ?
Neil

If your dogs are mad dog yippy yapper Chihuahuas; they probably Love it!

I have a basic question. If the Fed has bought billions of dollars of MBSs, and it turns out that these MBSs were the result of a securitization process that severed chain of title to the mortgages--the underlying security--couldn't the Fed sue the banks? Couldn't the Fed be the one investor who finally sues them for fraud?

"And we were all, like, ya dude, party on, and like it went, you know, like gnarly on us."

........Why didn't CR advise us during the Cash-4-Clunkers deal that we could've gotten a free golf cart in the deal? Trade in some old tired POS for a state of the art beach cart! I would've been like so there - a gnarly beach crawler, dood - my board on top, ice chest and "coldies".......a total beach chick magnet!

C'mon CR......lets step up the informational services end, dood!

Government Stupidity - Outrageous Cash for Clunkers loophole paying for new golf carts

fudge_hend wrote:

That and the figure should scare the crap out of the banks into short sales. Half of all REO are damaged. Either short sale the house or take a 50-50 chance the inhabitant is going to take their frustration out on the house. How does this ratio of damaged to undamaged REOs compare historically I wonder. Is this a recent phenom or pretty typical?

Half the stuff I saw in my last house-hunting foray wasn't trashed, but it was "damaged goods", even if the owners didn't realize it. Banker owners (or, realistically, their surrogates)......eeeeuuuwwww.

"Is it dog abuse to leave CNBC on for them all day to listen to?"

It is if the dog starts losing your money Smile

Ah, dude, I was so, like going to like um take that government class and stuff.
But like, it was, um, time for DARE classes and I was all like totally bombed from the party.
Then, dude, like the pep rally, like came up and stuff.
And then, like the state, like didn't, you know, decide we should, like attend high school, for like four years, ya know.
So I like, didn't, totally get what, I like paid for, ya know?
Dude.

Pearl wrote:

Couldn't the Fed be the one investor who finally sues them for fraud?

---Quit hogging that Kool-Aid

greenchutes (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Mon, 2/22/2010 - 1:11 pm
That is the funny thing about 2010. The government is effectively buying everyone a home at current prices, and then some, what with the recent incentive package.

FDR promised a chicken in every pot, a car in every garage
Obama is promising a home with plenty of Hopium to boot !

From the HAFA guidelines

You can’t list the property with or sell it to anyone that you are related to or have a close personal or business relationship with. In legal language, it must be an “arm’s length transaction.” If you have a real estate license, you can’t earn a commission by listing your own property. You may not have any agreements to receive a portion of the commission or the sales price after closing. Any buyer of your property must agree to not sell
the home within 90 calendar days of the date it is sold by you. You may not have any expectation that you will be able to buy or rent [servicer may delete “or rent” in accordance with investor guidelines] your house back after the closing. Any knowing violation of the arm’s length transaction prohibition may be a violation of federal law.

nova wrote:

Any knowing violation of the arm’s length transaction prohibition may be a violation of federal law.

---What was Madoff's take again?
60 BILLION?
And he Confessed.

It's amazing how far the US has come in winter sports just in the last 20 years.

A Map of Winter Olympic Medals - The Games Past & Present - Interactive Map - The New York Times

Great interactive chart from NYT.

"Is it dog abuse to leave CNBC on for them all day to listen to?"

It is if the dog starts losing your money

  • They could probably do a better job of investing than I do! Laughing out loud

HomeGnome wrote:

---Quit hogging that Kool-Aid

I'm not sure what you mean by that. Puzzled

But what I am saying is, couldn't the Fed demand (as an investor) proof that there was ever collateral underlying these securities?

This hand-stenciled sign popped up on my street this weekend:

Homeowner Stimulus Package
Buy a condo
$500 down payment; $8000 cash back
IT"S FREE MONEY!!!
xxx-xxxx

Not.
Going.
To.
Happen.

Pearl<
The FED and the 19 Financial Hijackers are committing TREASON together.

"You can’t list the property with or sell it to anyone that you are related to or have a close personal or business relationship with. Any knowing violation of the arm’s length transaction prohibition may be a violation of federal law."

........OH NOOOOOO!..........after said violation of federal law they then shave your head and ship you to WestPac Forces for an all expenses paid 13-month vacation in.........oh wait..........that was what they did 50-years ago.........whew.........that sure worked out well.......ever get the idea these things are thought up by stupid 10-year olds?

Sorry - but I DO feel much better now.

@HomeGnome (homepage, profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Mon, 2/22/2010 - 1:32 pm
Pearl<
The FED and the 19 Financial Hijackers are committing TREASON together.

Once again very nicely depicted here
Daily Kos: Junk economics and the rape of the middle class 

Black Star Ranch

I was given a jar of extra spicy homemade pickles yesterday.
A taste of summer...

HomeGnome wrote:

Not.
Going.
To.
Happen.

But if it did happen--we would, effectively, be able to bust up the big banks by catching them in the act of doing something illegal.Sort of like catching Al Capone through tax evasion. And couldn't the Attorney General bring forth the charges? Would it be up to the Fed? (Not a rhetorical question--I truly don't know.)

I'd contest that sentiment. I think many of the people who work at those institutions are honest, hard working folks that genuinely think they're trying their hardest to create a climate of stability.

They're just failing because the institutions are built to fail. I think the more intellectually honest folks at the time acknowledged the '72/73 BW float as just an experiment that could go either way in the long term.

Black Star Ranch wrote:

I would've been like so there - a gnarly beach crawler, dood - my board on top, ice chest and "coldies".......a total beach chick magnet!

The Dude Abides

If anyone's interested, this is now the lowest volume day on the NYSE since January 14.

What else is new.

The hand written signs here are all about real estate investors wanted, or real estate apprentices needed, no money needed, appraised at $150K, buy for $75k or something close to that.

I always wonder if by investors and apprentices, they mean a social security number and good credit so they can flip out of the house.

The FED criminals and the Vampire Squid from Hell criminals are working together.
So breaking up the 19 financial hijackers to benefit the ringleader?

HomeGnome wrote:

Quit hogging that Kool-Aid

More like he's Bogarting the Currently Smoking Cannibis

".......a jar of extra spicy homemade pickles"......yum..............40mph wind gusts here - I've got to go chase down a screen door, some lawn furniture, and a 1/2-dozen chickens - bbl

Black Star Ranch

Those homemade pickles perfectly complimented my double extra spicy bloody mary...

Put an aquarium in the dog crate. And a deck oof cards.

Rob Dawg wrote:

MLS is not shit. Shit has value. MLS is the vestige of a dying oligarchy.

Dawg's angry that he missed the bottom. Smile

Buy now or be priced out for... three more years. haha.

We've come a long way. I remember a while back -- October '06 I think it was -- driving through Northern Michigan and getting my first clear sign that the crash was finally here: FREE BMW WITH EVERY CONDO PURCHASE!

What scares me is that 43% of sales seem to be distressed sales! Please tell me I missed something in that number.

In Oakland last month 60% of sales were distressed. 14% were short sales, in line with this survey, but 44% wer foreclosures and 3% were Probate.

The Bankruptcy Boys
By PAUL KRUGMAN
Published: February 21, 2010

O.K., the beast is starving. Now what? That’s the question confronting Republicans. But they’re refusing to answer, or even to engage in any serious discussion about what to do.
For readers who don’t know what I’m talking about: ever since Reagan, the G.O.P. has been run by people who want a much smaller government.
In the famous words of the activist Grover Norquist, conservatives want to get the government “down to the size where we can drown it in the bathtub.” But there has always been a political problem with this agenda. Voters may say that they oppose big government, but the programs that actually dominate federal spending — Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security — are very popular. So how can the public be persuaded to accept large spending cuts?
The conservative answer, which evolved in the late 1970s, would be dubbed “starving the beast” during the Reagan years. The idea — propounded by many members of the conservative intelligentsia, from Alan Greenspan to Irving Kristol — was basically that sympathetic politicians should engage in a game of bait and switch. Rather than proposing unpopular spending cuts, Republicans would push through popular tax cuts, with the deliberate intention of worsening the government’s fiscal position. Spending cuts could then be sold as a necessity rather than a choice, the only way to eliminate an unsustainable budget deficit......................

I think Oakland also had some beefy flips from the bottom a year ago, 100K/20-40% like the good old days. Green Shoots Davie Currently Smoking Cannibis Green Shoots

broward wrote:

Dawg's angry that he missed the bottom.

Bottom? There are still condos down the street from me listed at $995K. Actually badly done apartment conversions.

It looks like Elmo! showed up late and knew he had work to make up for! Laughing out loud

Pearl wrote:

couldn't the Fed sue the banks? Couldn't the Fed be the one investor who finally sues them for fraud?


you are snarking right?

Are sales by Martin Short included in these numbers? If they are, that will skew them.

HomeGnome wrote:

The FED criminals and the Vampire Squid from Hell criminals are working together.
So breaking up the 19 financial hijackers to benefit the ringleader?

Well, I mean breaking up the 19 financial hijackers via a lawsuit brought on by the Attorney General--on behalf of the Federal Reserve--whether or not the Federal Reserve likes it. But the Attorney General would be suing on behalf of the American citizens and taxpayers. It would certainly be a legal and face-saving way for President Obama to unwind the the bailout and bust up the banks--not under the duress of an economic collapse. Maybe?

Reference a comment from the previous thread.

Eddie Lampert is a parasitic moneychanger, a stain on society.

I think if there is such an thing as an honest conservative they have to admit that their strategy was wrong. If you want to shrink the size of government you have to force people to increase middle class taxes to pay for increased spending and run a balanced budget. If you allow the government to run a deficit you are essentially giving American taxpayers a 20% off government- and as any retailer knows consumers are suckers for anything that is 20% off.

Pearl are you seriously suggesting that President Obama hasn't been bought and paid for by the Banksters?

On the ground in Sacramento:
If the REO is in a occupiable state and the price is low enough (under 180k), they tend to get bid up. You get the calls from your agent telling you that there is a bidding war blah blah blah. The usually close at just under list with closing costs and the tax credit thrown in. Contrast that to the short sales which almost always close below list.

Other then the tax credit issue, one reason for over-bidding on REOs or conventional sales is because of lease renewals. They need a firm date to close because their finances are that strapped. If they have to cover the mortgage and lease for longer then 1 month, the deal collapses.

The other reason is interest rates. Someone put the fear in the buying public here. If affordability is set at 5% rates and the bank delays getting back to them for months and the rates rise, their affordability goes kaput and they think they will loose their earnest money . Most people don't realize that you can write the contract with a short acceptance date and if the bank doesn't reply by then, they have a free out.

And an an average capture rate of 91% of list price hides a lot of sins. For example, I close on Weds at 72% of list.

know when nd want to make sure they can close by a certain date. Even with the tax credit and all the other gimmes, people don't have enough money available to hang onto
you

There are no fiscal or monetary "conservatives" in a fiat regime, just more or less innocent bystanders.

crazyv wrote:

you are snarking right?

No--I'm 100% serious. The Department of Justice is a separate body--would the Federal Reserve have a say in the matter? I agree--the Federal Reserve Board wouldn't like it. But, at the end of the day, that might not matter to the DOJ.

Would Madoff do it again if he had the chance. Good question, if you gonna steal, go for broke.

Well, you would expect the market to drop on a day that Obama proposes a 2.9% medicare tax (same as employee share on wages) to high-income dividends and capital gains. It means high-income people could be paying a ton for Medicare without getting any benefit (e.g., premiums below actual cost, which exists already).

It's an idea that will happen. It has to happen, and there won't be any way to stop it. But it's very negative for the stock market, the most negative new idea imaginable. And maybe it's happening a lot faster than people thought. The mood is right to pass it, too.

I'm still waiting to hear which of the 19 hijackers got the play dough and how much they got.

Yep, nothing priced reasonably was clean. You had to go from getting the keys to sweat equity
Equity in Sacramento? bahahahaha I crack myself up >; )

crazyv wrote:

President Obama hasn't been bought and paid for by the Banksters?

bought and paid for by somebody.

Banksters are probably mixed in there somewhere.

I don't think that the DOJ has the standing to sue on behalf of Fed. - the Fed is an independent entity. I maybe wrong on this but while its profits go to the Treasury there is no requirement for the Treasury to bail out the Federal Reserve.

Even if the DOJ had standing to sue for losses suffered by the Fed. the attorney general would have to approve which means the President would have to approve. So back to my first question do you still believe that Obama hasn't been bought and paid for by the banksters and that anybody in government (Congress of the executive branch) will not do what the big banks want?

So DFW is getting another 2-3 inches of snow tonight and tomorrow. Neat little cycle here. Trees start blooming, snow. Wonder if this will last til April. Year my first was born we got snow in April. None before April though.

crazyv wrote:

Pearl are you seriously suggesting that President Obama hasn't been bought and paid for by the Banksters

I think he would be a legend in his own time if he brought down the banks. And every President wants to be a legend in his own time. Popularity is sometimes just as powerful as money.

broward wrote:

Banksters are probably mixed in there somewhere

Should read: Vampire Squid from Hell are mixed in there; like Vampire Squid from Hell salad.

crazyv wrote:

DOJ has the standing

The only standing that DOJ has is the understanding that there may be future job security on wall street, or at the Fed, SEC, and other places in the loop, where the cash flows. The people at DOJ are spineless corrupt punks that are owned by the mafia...

rich wrote:

the most negative new idea imaginable

oh, i don't know...how about taxing capital gains and dividends as ordinary income? with, say, a 90% marginal rate at the high end?

i guess i just have a livelier imagination.

IMO income is income- why should the efforts of speculator be taxed at a lower rate than the poor Joe/Jane who gets up everyday to go to work? Frankly the notion that you need a lower capital gains tax rate to spur investment is just bogus. Do you honestly think that Gates, Dell, Brin etc would not have done what they did if they knew that they would have to pay a tax of 33% rather than 20% on their stock?

For people seeking to make 100's% return on their investment the tax rate is irrelevant. The only people to whom the tax rate matters is quite frankly the rentier class.

crazyv wrote:

For people seeking to make 100's% return on their investment the tax rate is irrelevant. The only people to whom the tax rate matters is quite frankly the rentier class.

You mean like retired people living on dividends?

Pearl wrote:

and it turns out that these MBSs were the result of a securitization process that severed chain of title to the mortgages--the underlying security--couldn't the Fed sue the banks?

If they new that prior to the sale, they probably couldn't. They new they were buying assets that were not liquid, so it may not be a much of a stretch to know how toxic those assets were.

Over 65 can be treated as an exception much like filing taxes on SSI payments . Next ?

knew.

fyi.
Sorry, Captain, I had to do it.

Alternatively, you could move the brackets around suitably.

Pearl wrote:

But the Attorney General would be suing on behalf of the American citizens and taxpayers. It would certainly be a legal and face-saving way for President Obama to unwind the the bailout and bust up the banks--not under the duress of an economic collapse. Maybe?

The AG won't indict the torture lawyers--or their bosses--why would he do his job now?

HomeGnome wrote:

knew. fyi.

This is what I get for multitasking. Sad

rich wrote:

Well, you would expect the market to drop on a day that Obama proposes a 2.9% medicare tax (same as employee share on wages) to high-income dividends and capital gains

Why not just eliminate the income cap for these taxes?

Deflationary Jane wrote:

Over 65 can be treated as an exception much like filing taxes on SSI payments . Next ?

Keep fiddling with the tax code, and pretty soon it will be so huge and riddled with exceptions that no one will be able to understand it.

Oh, wait...

Pearl wrote:

I think he would be a legend in his own time if he brought down the banks. And every President wants to be a legend in his own time. Popularity is sometimes just as powerful as money.


he had his chance when he had his hands around their throats- if he didn't do it then he is not going to do it now. Besides he already thinks he is a legend in his own time- have you forgotten all the references to the Messiah.

Speed wrote:

95 percent of home buyers now are FHA. Thanks, taxpayers, for picking up the tab when this wave of buyers defaults.

+1

After this wave wipes out, prices drop. In this next panic, those with liquid assets get cheap RE. Lowest rentals in town means best renters offered nice cookies, and a lifetime of rental income. Coming soon in your neighborhood.

However, in places like Palo Alto, and Westwood/Brentwood, and other high end pockets, there's merely a drop in tourism, but RRE remains now flat at what it was 6 months ago. No cracks there, yet.

We're not seeing the streets of Paris run with blood yet. Merely, the fly over areas of this country. In due time... Patience, the gifts are coming.

Well my parents still have a house to sell, I hope they find some sucker. They just bought a 12 acre plot with a house the same size as ours on it for 125k, they hope they can find some sucker to buy ours at 180 k on a 1 acre lot. Let us hope so. So by all means, Media do your thing. economic recovery is right around the corner.

Mel wrote:

Why not just eliminate the income cap for these taxes?


Mel I don't think that there is income cap with respect to Medicaire taxes only SS. The tax specifically excludes unearned income- like interest and capital gains.

What about retired people living on pensions? Pensions that were negotiated and signed off on. The money that went to bonuses and capital gains...

so are they giving you a rent reduction, biochemist?

Slumdog wrote:

After this wave wipes out, prices drop.

Unlike option arms, the FHA buyers probably won't hit in a wave. They will be spread out over time and will most likely default due to job loss or medical issues, much more traditional problems instead of recasts or resets.

Vonbek777 wrote:

Heat's getting turned up in the kitchen.

He sure gets misled a lot.

Short sales are just one more trip to the trough for the real-estate-scammer class. Short sales are terribly open to fraud, often by agents, and really should be banned.

crazyv wrote:

So back to my first question do you still believe that Obama hasn't been bought and paid for by the banksters and that anybody in government (Congress of the executive branch) will not do what the big banks want?

I think everything is rigged to the bankers benefit. I think they could have stolen less and gotten away with it. But they were really, really blatantly naughty this time--and I think it could actually be more politically expedient for the politicians to bite the banking hand that fed them this time. And I am cynical enough to believe that this would be just due to political expedience more than ethics.

(And just for the record--I do think Washington is corrupted by Wall Street money. But I am, personally, of the opinion that Barack Obama is a good and decent man.I do believe in this man as a man. Is he being too "politiciany" for my taste? Yes. And I'm also willing to admit to the possibility that Wall Street types have him a bit hoodwinked. He needs more close advisers Elizabeth Warren.) Smile

Vonbek777 wrote:

Sen. John McCain: I was misled on bailout

Maybe they'll mislead him out of office and replace him with a fiscal conservative.

" Sen. John McCain: I was misled on bailout

Heat's getting turned up in the kitchen. "

Don't you mean heats getting turned up in the old folks home? Poor guy keeps getting misled by the banksters. First with Keating and now this.

Wonder when McCain will realize that perhaps he should be listening to a different group about banking matters.

I love him dearly. On issues of economics and ... family values, there's nobody that I know that's stronger. -- John McCain

On campaign economic adviser Phil Gramm; January 18, 2008;

Janet Yellen Pigged

The housing sector has also been benefiting from the Fed’s policy of buying mortgage-backed securities. These purchases appear to have helped keep home finance rates low. But, the Fed is now in the process of tapering off these purchases and plans to stop them at the end of March. As support from Federal Reserve and other government programs phases out, there is a risk that the housing market could weaken again.

Boy, I really hope so. "Weak" prices is the goal of any economy, (stupid).

HomeGnome wrote:

---Quit bogarting the Hopium

Fixed It For Ya

It's an idea that will happen. It has to happen, and there won't be any way to stop it. But it's very negative for the stock market, the most negative new idea imaginable. And maybe it's happening a lot faster than people thought. The mood is right to pass it, too.

Need to add Social Security to that too, and remove the cap.

sm_landlord: people living on dividends should be wealthy (or why are the playing so heavily in the market). If they are living off of interest, they are already paying full income tax on it. No way the 2 sources should be taxed differently.

In 2007, I warned at Mish that those holding Muni Bonds would see their safe lives smashed. I guess that too was hyperbole...not.

One of my buddies, a billionaire's sons, blew me off. 6 months ago, he was touting gold, but not buying it, merely playing with the idea, and he said nothing about his extensive Muni portfolio. I figure he's dropped about 30% of his father's hard won wealth. He's got another 30% to go.

Marx was right. We need a revaluation of assets to reflect the unmanipulated marketplace. The national gubermints are gonna get their clocks cleaned, and that means fiat was, is, and will be dead.

Hiding in PM's is the rational thing to do. It's just a matter of time. Panic is assured. It's just when, not how severe the panic will be. Panics are panics.

...searching for the app to join the military.
(OT: the foolish who think the std for the US military is higher than for any other is insane. Remember a place called Dresden? That was a good thing. Collateral loss of 23 people or whatever number is meaningless. Like war evolves on a social scale into something like a police action... Stop eating the roaches; there's enough delusion in this world already.)

"so are they giving you a rent reduction, biochemist?"

Emm, something like that, I do all the housework and the heavy lifting. Something tells me though that after I move all the shit from this house to the new one they might just decide to drop me off downtown again: (

That is always fun, at least for the first few days, my parents have a wicked sense of humor: )

poic wrote:

Wonder when McCain will realize that perhaps he should be listening to a different group about banking matters.

He listens to the ones contributing to his re-election fund...

Hyperbole is when something is off 1/2 of 1%, and somebody claims that's a sizable adjustment.

You can't easily commit fraud at a foreclosure auction since it is so out in the open. Daylight is a good disinfectant.

Short sales could easily be fixed in similar manner.

Slumdog wrote:

Collateral loss of 2800 people or whatever number is meaningless

Fixed It For Ya
---http://www.usarmy.com/
Join up and see the world, dog.

Uncle Ar wrote:

sm_landlord: people living on dividends should be wealthy (or why are the playing so heavily in the market). If they are living off of interest, they are already paying full income tax on it. No way the 2 sources should be taxed differently.

Yeah, they should both be at the dividend rate. Why are so many people convinced that punishing savers is good policy? That's what got us here.

crazyv wrote:

Mel I don't think that there is income cap with respect to Medicaire taxes only SS. The tax specifically excludes unearned income- like interest and capital gains.

I stand corrected--SS tax should also do away with income cap.

Slumdog wrote:

I warned at Mish that those holding Muni Bonds would see their safe lives smashed.

Nobody cares what happened to Mishiots.

I am thankful for John McCain's service to this country. Now he needs to serve in a different capacity. I suggest perhaps sanitation worker at the Grand Canyon.

I used to think the SW GOP - wholly owned by the chicago mob - was a bad force in politics. Now, I'm nostalgic, that level of corruption is bush-league compared to the current crew. McCain is from another time.

CaptainMorgan wrote:

Slumdog wrote:

After this wave wipes out, prices drop.

Unlike option arms, the FHA buyers probably won't hit in a wave. They will be spread out over time and will most likely default due to job loss or medical issues, much more traditional problems instead of recasts or resets.

IMO, you're not in tune with the reality of human behavior. Society healed from the last Great Depression. Most who remember it for real are long dead or ineffectual at this point. BBernanke has a responsive game plan that might work, but it is far from proven out. The way it ends is with a gallows drop, just like the days before AIG bailout. We humans are now all primed for gallows drops. We saw it in Iceland; we saw it here. Our cells are now programmed to panic. We're just waiting for the next external events that will trigger the next waves. This is an amazingly high probability. For a refresher, go read MacKay's book, I think it's called Mass Hysteria and the Delusion of the Crowd, free, online. It's what's happening.

There's a few nutters on Mish's blog that like to write in 3rd person singular, it's a little creepy...

Juvenal Delinquent wrote:

There's a few nutters on Mish's blog that like to write in 3rd person singular, it's a little creepy...

Cinco-X agrees with you-

Juvenal Delinquent wrote:

Hyperbole is when something is off 1/2 of 1%, and somebody claims that's a sizable adjustment.

The move occurred within 1 hour, on a daily chart. If one tracks in multiple time periods, this is important enough to warrant a comment.

Juvenal Delinquent wrote:

There's a few nutters on Mish's blog that like to write in 3rd person singular, it's a little creepy...

Bro-man think you wrong. Bro-man want proof.

Good book, have read it and recommend it. I also recommend learning to use the quote feature as it makes it easier for everyone to follow.

I have long criticized the FHA 3.5% down since those buyers are immediately underwater. Nothing I see suggests they will all walk away or default in mass however.

Slumdog wrote:

In 2007, I warned at Mish that those holding Muni Bonds would see their safe lives smashed. I guess that too was hyperbole...not.

Oh? Really? When did that happen? 2007 or a year later or a year later or a year later? Hasn't happened.

You are a so far a negative contributor to these conversations.

oh, i don't know...how about taxing capital gains and dividends as ordinary income? with, say, a 90% marginal rate at the high end?

What I meant to say is...the most negative idea that Obama could realistically come up with today, that would actually have a chance to pass soon. The reality is that it's all incremental. First, there will probably be this Medicare extension for high-income. Then, 100% of Social Security benefits will be taxable. Then, the definition of "high-income" will start to creep down. Then, Social Security benefits will be "income-related," like Medicare premiums are now.

Finally (and maybe only then) income tax rates will go up for everybody. That will help the feds bail out the states. Throw in a VAT or something and we're talking serious tax money.

Come on, Slumdog.

You can get some with the best.
U.S. Marine Corps

You don't want to be an armchair General do you?
You'll get a chance to see some of that meaningless collateral damage up close and personal.

Slumdog wrote:

Unlike option arms, the FHA buyers probably won't hit in a wave. They will be spread out over time and will most likely default due to job loss or medical issues, much more traditional problems instead of recasts or resets.
IMO, you're not in tune with the reality of human behavior. Society healed from the last Great Depression. Most who remember it for real are long dead or ineffectual at this point. BBernanke has a responsive game plan that might work, but it is far from proven out. The way it ends is with a gallows drop, just like the days before AIG bailout. We humans are now all primed for gallows drops. We saw it in Iceland; we saw it here. Our cells are now programmed to panic. We're just waiting for the next external events that will trigger the next waves. This is an amazingly high probability. For a refresher, go read MacKay's book, I think it's called Mass Hysteria and the Delusion of the Crowd, free, online. It's what's happening.

Stop sounding like Charlie Munger, unless you are Charlie Munger.

But the old Chuckster is right, but then he grew
up during GD the Prime.

Someday this war's gonna end...

Rob Dawg wrote:

You are a so far a negative contributor to these conversations.

As most conversations here are negative, that means Slumdog is positive.

broward wrote:

Slumdog wrote:

I warned at Mish that those holding Muni Bonds would see their safe lives smashed.

Nobody cares what happened to Mishiots.

I cared only to make the declaration at the time as I post to myself. I enjoy being right. I've spent a lifetime paying for the sins of my grandparents and those before them. My future forecasting skills has served me for the most part well.

In some years, not decades, in the future, I'll join others to take houses when they're given away for nearly free.

Weimar was real. Argentina was real. We humans repeat. Tragically, those holding muni's have been hurt badly; conservative, naive, stubborn, and continuing to be economically taxed until their wealth returns to the nothingness of all historical societal financial outcomes.

I thought we were all talking in imaginary numbers...i know i am.

It's a big wahooza of a move for small minded types, certainly.

broward wrote:

Rob Dawg wrote:

You are a so far a negative contributor to these conversations.

As most conversations here are negative, that means Slumdog is positive.

He be sunshining on the doom? No, I meant it in the sense that Slumdog don't halp nobody learn nuthin'.

The article leads with this headline: “Basically, It’s Over.”

  • Yup! Munger's most accurate 3 words Wink

HomeGnome wrote:

You don't want to be an armchair General do you?
You'll get a chance to see some of that meaningless collateral damage up close and personal.

Go to LiveLeak.com - Redefining the Media for the all the gun camera action you may enjoy seeing.
Thx for the recommendations.

Citizen AllenM wrote:

Stop sounding like Charlie Munger, unless you are Charlie Munger.

OK I'll bite. Who's Charlie Munger? What relevance does he have here?

I am still trying to figure out why somebody who thinks gold is going to $6,000 would bother with the chump change of shorting from $1200 to $1045 in a secular bull market and spend time watching hourly charts for $6 moves, but I guess it gives ample opportunity to pretend to be right.

Charlie Munger says Americans have "whiled away" their time gambling at the casino instead of making valuable things. Thank you, Mr. Bunghole, for your sage advice. Obviously, you have grown wise from a lifetime of growing rich and fat manipulating the casino, producing nothing of value. Now, when it's about to implode like Madoff's bucket shop, you grow a conscience.

Fat Cat make a better meal than Squirrel! .

Yalt wrote:

If anyone's interested, this is now the lowest volume day on the NYSE since January 14.

What else is new.

Who wants to play in a rigged game? No buyers, cause you never know when the Fed will kick out the supports, and no sellers cause you never know when the next FLA program will kick in.

Slumdog - your contention about munis - do you have a link for a broader index showing declines? Is there some pimco closed-end fund type thing I've missed, which could also serve as an example?

I wouldn't say that Charlie Munger has become rich just from playing the casino. That's a real stretch there. There's plenty of real products behind the companies he's help put together.

poic<

It's usually about this time of day when you make your daily Brown Pants and KY post.

Maybe he's Italian Royalty?

Count da Pennies

tncubsfan wrote:

Yup! Munger's most accurate 3 words

It ain't over until the Fiat Lady sings.

buy,sell,buy,buy,hold,hold,buy, sell

or is it

buy,sell,buy,hold,hold,buy,sell,sell

My secret trade instructions came with a special slumdog decoder ring but it's still hard to decipher.

Here we go:

MUB: Technical Analysis for iShares S&P National AMT-Free M - Yahoo! Finance

MUB has done fine, SD. Not a bad yield either, especially with tax advantages (though I assume that ticker doesn't come with those).

"[Other] Americans should go to work making things, [at unprotected "market" wages], instead of living off FIRE. [There are too many parasites here, we'll kill the host, and I was here first!]"

FTHB = The next group of suckers whose wealth will get wiped out.

Amazing what people sign themselves up for.

poic wrote:

There's plenty of real products behind the companies he's help put together.

He didn't make a single product. He bought and sold companies.

unless I'm mistaken FIRE has been around mostly for the last 20 years. Charlie Munger has been investing for 60 years give or take. Long before FIRE came along.

It's either that or your signature "I'm taking my casino winnings down to the Burnt Swill - er - Starbucks Coffee" post.

Beer

Had a chat with a RE agent last weekend - sales are hot - multiple offers on houses - first timers jumping in after they caught that bull shark in the lagoon.

What types of lenders were at the spearhead of subprime lending? Non-bank lenders like New Century.

So what is Fannie doing?

Fannie Finally Unveils Warehouse Pilot

This would be funny if it weren't so tragic.

CaptainMorgan wrote:

If they new that prior to the sale, they probably couldn't. They new they were buying assets that were not liquid, so it may not be a much of a stretch to know how toxic those assets were.

Sorry for belated reply, Captain Morgan. And I promise (to try really hard to Smile) shut up about this for a while. But I think most decision-makers knew how toxic the MBSs were from the standpoint that many of the mortgages were bad. But I don't think there were a lot of decision-makers (at the time of the bailout) who understood that there were not even any rights to the bad mortgages. (In fact--many people are just now starting to notice that little glitch.) But these weren't just scratched off, losing lottery tickets--these were more like counterfeit, scratched off, losing lottery tickets. I think we've caught 'em red-handed.

And I'll go back to being a housewife now--even though you guys are way more fun....

"Had a chat with a RE agent last weekend - sales are hot - multiple offers on houses"

A few months ago I spoke to a real-estate agent who was talking about how great the market was holding up. While he was showing a house in foreclosure.

How do you know when a real-estate agent is lying?

When their lips are moving.

poic wrote:
My secret trade instructions came with a special slumdog decoder ring but it's still hard to decipher.
D R I N K
M O R E
O V A L T I N E

poic wrote:

unless I'm mistaken FIRE has been around mostly for the last 20 years. Charlie Munger has been investing for 60 years give or take. Long before FIRE came along.

You are mistaken. It goes back to the Pharaohs. The first pyramid scheme... Of course a banker can add value, but the system can't let him consume it all, then it's at best zero sum.

Coming soon, an even more monstrous housing finance system.

Fate of Home Loan Banks May Lie with Fannie and Freddie

"Outside observers agreed that a self-capitalization framework akin to the Home Loan banks might be the best solution for Fannie and Freddie.

"The big question for housing finance is how do we recapitalize the GSEs, and I think the Federal Home Loan banks offer a great answer to that question," said Fred Cannon, the co-director of research at KBW.'s Keefe, Bruyette & Woods. "The GSEs can essentially become cooperatives of banks who originate mortgages. Part of the mortgages would be a haircut that would go in and recapitalize the GSEs.""

CaptainMorgan wrote:

I am still trying to figure out why somebody who thinks gold is going to $6,000 would bother with the chump change of shorting from $1200 to $1045 in a secular bull market and spend time watching hourly charts for $6 moves, but I guess it gives ample opportunity to pretend to be right.

I watch the game as it's a great distraction to me. Can't change the condition, and do seek the small games to play. Yes, there is no reason in my world to trade. I'm stuck with 5 and 6 figure deals as the game I'm in, and frankly, they're slow and boring. A close friend calls it building a wall, one brick at a time; that's what I do in my day job.

As I've learned chart patterns in 91 and 92, and discovered only a small handful of patterns that I could prove would work, I'm just a one trick pony, and when the trick shows up, I do it. Most of the times, I leave the trade as it doesn't form exactly as it needs to, to be a winner. I called the drop in the DJIA in Aug 2007, at Mish's, entered short once, left nearly flat, scared out on the retracement of my accurate call, and then reentered for the extended move down, as the market didn't look back after it retraced up. Since then, I've traded the S&P less than a half a handful of times.

What do you do for a challenge? It hurts me to see my assets shrink when they retrace 20% or so. Does it not impact on you?

Captain, for some reason, you're not looking for signals as you have nothing to compare them to. I have a mind full of them. It's common to about 1% of the population. I'm stuck in that 1%. It's called ADHD with a high IQ. There's no way outta this condition. Read the literature.

Speed wrote:

first timers jumping in after they caught that bull shark in the lagoon.

Buy now, Dawg or be priced out for... three more years!

"You are mistaken. It goes back to the Pharaohs. The first pyramid scheme... Of course a banker can add value, but the system can't let him consume it all, then it's at best zero sum."

Well of course FIRE has been around in some form or another. But FIRE and off-balance sheet securitization as the driving force in our economy started under Greenspan in the early 80s.

When did Munger start out? In the 50s or 60s I believe.

ghostfaceinvestah wrote:

What types of lenders were at the spearhead of subprime lending? Non-bank lenders like New Century.
So what is Fannie doing?
Fannie Finally Unveils Warehouse Pilot
This would be funny if it weren't so tragic.

Oh, I love it. It means the casino is reviving, and Fannie is going to spin the wheel again!

Someday this war's gonna end...

Blackhalo wrote:

Yalt wrote:

If anyone's interested, this is now the lowest volume day on the NYSE since January 14.

What else is new.

Low volume is common during periods of exhaustion. The most recent I recall wis in 2001/2002 and the one that all of us know is the one during the Great Depression. Volume vanishes and the losers hold their losses. Capitulation will come, with surrender being an extended affair. Wanna house?

greenchutes wrote:

Slumdog - your contention about munis - do you have a link for a broader index showing declines? Is there some pimco closed-end fund type thing I've missed, which could also serve as an example?


Given the concentration of OPM - the normal market behavior to adverse structural fundamentals - i.e a slow and steady decline just doesn't happen- particularly as every investment pool is reaching for yield. From a money managers perspective- under performing by 10 bp is as bad as under performing 100's of bp. Thus any cheapening in the face of adverse structural fundamentals is an opportunity to purchase. As a result what we will see is punctuated equilibriums- people are on the bridge even as it starts to make weird noises and are on it when it collapses. It will of course drive the bears crazy or at least those bears looking for some immediate gains.

I think the municipal bond market is one of those bridges. Creaks and groans all around. Large scale defaults are inevitable. Timing of course is uncertain but certainly within any reasonable investment horizon.

Sounds like Charlie Ponzi to me.

Pearl wrote:

But I don't think there were a lot of decision-makers (at the time of the bailout) who understood that there were not even any rights to the bad mortgages.

Would be political suicide to admit to that.! Rock and a hard place. I don't honestly know, and was speculating previously but think it might be a realistic problem.

I think you are tilting at windmills though, but think it is interesting and entertaining for discussion, but doubt it will go beyond that.

Short Sales See Big Jump in Activity During January

This is unAmerikan. Not allowing people to continue living free in their homes for 12+ months after they throw in the towel will mean the all important PCE will take a hit.

yogi<

How are the cards treating you these days?

ghostfaceinvestah wrote:

FTHB = The next group of suckers whose wealth will get wiped out.

Amazing what people sign themselves up for.


what wealth- with the 3.5% down FHA mortgage and the 10% tax credit this lot is already ahead.

Well of course FIRE has been around in some form or another. But FIRE and off-balance sheet securitization as the driving force in our economy started under Greenspan in the early 80s.

Plus ça change plus c'est le meme chose.

It's not securitization, but credit driven bubble valuation that's the problem.

Just had his Madoff moment. Sorry, my whole life's been a waste, but didn't some of us have fun...

The idea that an oldtimer insider like Munger would write an economic epitaph speaks volumes, no?

greenchutes wrote:

Slumdog - your contention about munis - do you have a link for a broader index showing declines? Is there some pimco closed-end fund type thing I've missed, which could also serve as an example?

greenchutes, here's the chart. www. futures.tradingcharts.com/prairielinks/MB/M
It appears flat. I stand corrected.
My belief is based on the quality of the revenues supporting them. I do stand corrected. No meaningful movement in price over the past 4 years. Major drop in volume.

Poker is an honest game. Everyone can see it's zero sum, that the house gets paid for running the game, the players get some enjoyment but no value is added.

The financial markets are not an honest game.

Judd Gregg is a scumbag:

1 currency now -yogi wrote:
You are mistaken. It goes back to the Pharaohs. The first pyramid scheme
Well, "pyramid" is actually a Greek word, no idea what the Egyptians called them. The root 'pyr' means fire. Joke's on us again.

As the parable ends, none of the politicians listen, and Basicland turned into “Sorrowland,” Munger concludes.

I think it will be Adventureland. But, adventure is where you make it.

Slumdog wrote:

I called the drop in the DJIA in Aug 2007

I have never figured out why you were so badly off on timing on this one, but hope you have sorted that out. It is a little puzzling to me.

Slumdog wrote:

What do you do for a challenge?

See above. Wink Nothing like the feeling of knocking one out of the park, but I think I have ten times the patience you do. I'm not bashing you, everyone has their strengths and weaknesses, just happens that patience is one of my strengths and I use it to may advantage. I hope you do as well.

Slumdog wrote:

Captain, for some reason, you're not looking for signals as you have nothing to compare them to.

I'm not sure why you repeatedly make assumptions about what I do or am capable of, but I guess you expect me to do everything on here and not in my trading account. One thing you will notice is that I repeatedly try to get people to learn and educate themselves, and not blindly follow other people which is why I get annoyed with the people who just want to toot their tarnished and dented horns.

poic wrote:

unless I'm mistaken FIRE has been around mostly for the last 20 years......

Finance, Insurance & Real Estate!? I don't know about Real Estate, though as I recall it was already a big business in the '60s, but Finance and Insurance are certainly older than our country.........

ResistanceIsFeudal wrote:

no idea what the Egyptians called them.

They called them derogatory words as they spend their lives building them.

Rob Dawg wrote:

You are a so far a negative contributor to these conversations.

Not entirely true ... he has become a handy passive verb.

As in "My SRS is getting slumdogged by the Vampire Squid from Hell ."

Munger is, of course, right.
I think the last few years have revealed the financial sector to largly be a casino in which some suckers savings (usually yours) is being bet in a game of crooked game of craps. No player can lose since their playing with your money.

Slumdog wrote:

greenchutes, here's the chart. www. futures.tradingcharts.com/prairielinks/MB/M
It appears flat. I stand corrected.
My belief is based on the quality of the revenues supporting them. I do stand corrected. No meaningful movement in price over the past 4 years. Major drop in volume.

Of course, they are regularly evaluated by those oh so delightful ratings agencies. I do believe we are starting to see several large scale bks coming in the munispace, with consequent real evaluations based on shrinking revenue streams. Some bonds are good, but all will be tarred with the next collapse.

Is California really rate over BBB- on potential downgrade and default? No? Well reality is really something else these days.

Silence is Golden Brown is needed by me at this point. I feel the need to be comforted and reassured.

Someday this war's gonna end...

Elvis wrote:

I think it will be Adventureland.

True. The markets are run by Jungle Crews hedging against the back side of water.

hopeinsd wrote:

Munger is, of course, right.

Of course. So was Madoff when he announced, "It's all a ponzi scheme".

ghostfaceinvestah wrote:

What types of lenders were at the spearhead of subprime lending? Non-bank lenders like New Century.

Well, ok, some non-bank lenders were spearheading subprime lending. Others were the primary originators of Fannie/Freddie conforming loans. They weren't in the news so much, since they weren't making billions writing crap.

As financial outrages go, a possible revival of warehouse lines for small mortgage banks writing agency-conforming loans doesn't really make the cut.

Elvis wrote:
They called them derogatory words as they spend their lives building them.
Probably not just their own lives... their children and possibly grandchildren too... it took so long that they were a multi-generational project. Unless of course aliens did it with telepathy and weird noises.

Bubblisimo Gerkinov wrote:

Not entirely true ... he has become a handy passive verb.

And a useful source of snappy phrases: "the great undoubling", "the great doubling down"....

Slumdog wrote:

Who's Charlie Munger

touche'

Hey, thx for the intro. Never knew he existed.

One ancient tale says when Solomon gave Sheba the ark as a goodbye gift, he gave her a floating land ship...a ship used by the gods, not the One God, to transport the rocks used to build the dead monuments. I always wondered what the 'dead monuments' were and how ancient man cut the stone for giza. Multi-generational indeed.

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