BWAHAHAHAHA, I can hardly wait for them to start sifting through my failed banks deals. The owner also owned a construction company. Millions of dollars of loans were made to the construction side from the bank. The construction company is in deep trouble as well. My bosses husband works for the construction side and they've had huge layoffs and shortened weeks...
The medium-small fish get the perp walk, the big fish get tens of billions and a "heckuva job".
No big-fish perp walks? Then civil disobedience by 2012. Interesting election, and the GOP fixer/consultants may wish they never organized the tea-party movement.
OT: Gold/Inflation. As long as humans experience irrationality, fear, and panic, we will witness major shifts in what is at any time window described as the store of value.
I define inflation as the price of all other commodities in comparison with what I recognize and conclude is the store of value within a specific nation-state. My decision is based on what I believe is the asset then trending higher, that asset being substituted at the time of the zenith of the then current bubble.
As Soros said, gold is the ultimate bubble. We have not seen that puppy go parabolic in a 90 degree angle, during this cycle. We will; of that I am certain.
So, when one measures inflation, at this time, it imo must be against the price of gold as measured in USD's.
What I expect is a black swan event which will catapult gold due to panic and mass hysteria of the crowd. It always happens. We're no different now than we were 100 years ago, or 3000 years ago. Panics happen. Preparing for them is conservative and wise.
Im gonna reply again because I really enjoy your work here.
When a check writer stops payment on a check to the lowest common denominator, you can rest assured the check writer will recieve a valuable set of discovery questions from a questionable lawyer that owns a check cashing business.
This needs to start with small banks and build into an all out attack on wall street, because obviously those bastards have all been guilty of a scheme to conceal material facts!!
The Tea Parties are a mass of different groups all caring about multiple issues, they are in no way a cohesive group, but maybe they can be loud enough to get the attention of some of the current carpet baggers.
Oh yeah. Problem is -- unlike the last spike -- the USD will not survive this event in its present form.
TJ, I agree...
Alex Grey at comments to Duncan article at FT Alphaville just wrote this:
"....the crisis is global this time and it could eventually engender major foreign exchange crises. One can think of Japanese banks entering another crisis and being forced to liquidate their dollar reserves causing an exchange crisis for the US, which in turn would amplify the US recession/depression"
So, it's not so black swan after all. We have Toyota's income stream effectively dramatically curtailed. This will cause the Japanese banks to disgorge USD's. Here is the the exchange crisis mentioned above. Buh bye USD. Hello Gold.
Wow. What else does noob do? A real renaissance man. Noob do you primarily curl your own hair? Or do you have repeat clients? Is that something you picked up during down time while driving a truck?
The mouth is equipped with a sharp horny beak mainly made of chitin[2] and cross-linked proteins, and is used to kill and tear prey into manageable pieces. The beak is very robust, but does not contain minerals, unlike the teeth and jaws of many other organisms, including marine species.
The skin is covered in chromatophores, which enable the squid to change color to suit its surroundings, making it effectively invisible. The underside is also almost always lighter than the topside, to provide camouflage from both prey and predator.
At the front of the mantle cavity lies the siphon, which the squid uses for locomotion via precise jet propulsion. In this form of locomotion, water is sucked into the mantle cavity and expelled out of the siphon in a fast, strong jet. The direction of the siphon can be changed, to suit the direction of travel.
Actually, I've spent the entire night drinking and politicking. I'm going to bed now because I have 12 straight hours of meetings tomorrow.
But I couldn't resist tweaking the commentariat. I should really be watching the Canada-USA hockey game (which I just did for the past hour), but I'm exhausted and if I'm not completely focused tomorrow I'll end up with way more work over the next year than if I can control the situation. One night away from hockey and CR is worth a years worth of slacking
Wow. What else does noob do? A real renaissance man. Noob do you primarily curl your own hair? Or do you have repeat clients? Is that something you picked up during down time while driving a truck?
I have a buzz cut; the only hair worth curling on my body resides on my chest.
And I'm seriously debating about waxing my entire body, because my youngest continually uses both my chest and leg hair as leverage for climbing. It brings tears to my eyes every single time.
HA! I don't sit on that advisory committee, so I take no responsibility for CPI calculations. But I will say that just got a lot of mileage out of those CPI numbers over the past week, professionally. It was something that only took a couple of hours, that I did on a lark, that resulted in a great deal of positive feedback. I can work on esoteric crap for years and not have anyone appreciate it, but throw together a bunch of statistics in a couple of hours and have people falling over each other congratulating me.
There's no justice in this world. By the way, I've consumed a great deal of alcohol this evening and if there's ever a time to use the 'ignore' feature of hoocoodanode on noob, tonight's your night.
Is it youngster's climbing or you lack of clothes that brings the tears?
It's the pain. Both from the physical hair removal, and the recognition that I'm so short-sighted as to forget to throw on a t-shirt in the middle of the night when I pull the baby out of her crib.
noob, you didn't vote in liz's poll yet as to whether we'll see deflation, flation or inflation.
I was torn between the deflation of my ego followed by inflation of my mid-section. I went with deflation, as that seems to be the most immediate concern.
When it comes to the issue of mid-section inflation--as the only person on hoocoodanode that's met me in person can attest to--what's done is done.
EDIT: Okay, before I embarrass myself any further, . Time to sleep this one off, it's an early morning.
Actually had a fascinating conversation with church youth tonight. First Sunday in Lent typically referred to as "Satan Sunday" since the gospel refers in one book or another to Christ's temptation, so the conversation turned to whether evil exists and if so, in what guises it resides. Showed clips from Schindlers' List and Pacino's Devil's Advocate.
Discussed whether a corporation can be evil, per se, and used Goldman Sachs as an example. Referenced the shorting of products that it simultaneously sold to customers as well as the more recent example of helping Greece hide it's debt. Had to really work to make the concepts doable but they followed. Consensus was that it was certainly behavior that would make you think it was evil. By evil, engaging in behavior and submitting to temptation that separates one from God.
Only goof was that the Schindler clip was of the Nazi Concentration Camp Commandant sniping at isolated Jews to spur the others along and it was interspersed with his topless girlfriend in his bed.
noob goldberg wrote: When it comes to the issue of mid-section inflation--as the only person on hoocoodanode that's met me in person can attest to--what's done is done.
Inflation only creates the illusion of economic growth...
Only goof was that the Schindler clip was of the Nazi Concentration Camp Commandant sniping at isolated Jews to spur the others along and it was interspersed with his topless girlfriend in his bed.
I accidentally showed 'The Graduate' once to a youth group. Oops indeed.
Calif. city charges fee for 9-1-1
Residents forced to pick yearly subscription or per-use fee for 9-1-1.
From the article: "Residents can pay a $48 voluntary fee for the year which allows them to call 9-1-1 as many times as necessary.Or, there's the option of not signing up for the annual fee. Instead, they will be charged $300 if they make a call for help. "
Local government as blackmailer, as predator. Since probably about half the residents in Tracy are busy abandoning the place -- it's in an RE bubble zone that crashed hard -- nobody local is paying attention.
I'm still in the "flation" camp akin to Dryfly's great comment of deflation in what you want and inflation in what you need.
I just think that the deflation will occur but doesn't take the larger world stage in account. As the Fed continues to monetize, the other countries will move away from the dollar and shift to another form of currency. Since our economy is driven by a physical commodity that is majority imported, anything with a significant transport component will ratchet upwards.
noob goldberg wrote: I support the economy by purchasing increasingly larger sizes of clothing.
I still occasionally wear clothes I wore in high school. Fortunately there is not that much of the wardrobe left
It's too bad you can't just trade up by selling off your old, non-fitting clothes and rolling the profits into ever-larger garments!
but, the kids - including own daughter, and ain't that uncomfortable - blew over it as got into the discussion and the sight of a grown man randomly potting prisoners behind wire.
The clip from Devil's Advocate is scene #37 in which Keanu Reeves confronts Pacino's Satan and engages in interesting dialogue about free will and identity. Bunch of f-bombs but no worse that what they hear in school and it's an instructive and engaging scene.
Local government as blackmailer, as predator. Since probably about half the residents in Tracy are busy abandoning the place -- it's in an RE bubble zone that crashed hard -- nobody local is paying attention.
I see the company that landed the billing contract is getting 15% of each fee. $45 per item billed and collected seems a bit steep to me but what do I know.
Anyway, there's always a workaround...
Tucker said one person joked if her husband has a heart attack, she’ll be tempted to light the kitchen table on fire to dodge the fees.
[Ambac, MBIA Inc. and Assured Guaranty, the three largest bond insurers, have set aside 0.04 percent of the total public finance debt they insure, or $520 million, to pay claims on municipal securities, according to regulatory filings by the companies]
More Bullish glass 1/2 full preparation. Wonderful oversight too! Why bother reserving at all ? What's this insurance worth ?
I don't understand - how is this any different than Banks holding securities without marking them to market? Is this guy in trouble because he did it before the rules were changed & everyone could do it?
When I first come down here to go to law school in '72, I worked
for the First National Bank of Blah, Blah. One branch. When they
got examined, a batch of paperwork I have no idea what it was,
got moved from desk to desk because they didn't want the examiners
to see it. I'm sure it was a by today's standards
When I represented First Federal of Blah Blah. they really sweated
it; I don't know whether they did anything to hide anything. But they
were in a mess, and I suppose everybody knew that. They are about
20 years gone.
I don't understand - how is this any different than Banks holding securities without marking them to market? Is this guy in trouble because he did it before the rules were changed & everyone could do it?
I bet if they hadn't ordered the second appraisals and said - hey no problem, same as it ever was - and used the old original valuations to show the examiners they'd be 'okay'... then it would just be sloppiness and not criminal. But once they had the second appraisals and decided to cover it up - that's where they screwed up.
Lesson learned: don't look, don't ask and you won't have lie about any of it later.
lawyerliz said:
"Inflation has gotten only 3 votes."
I will vote for inflation as in the result of printing the trillions since the bailout.
I will vote for deflation as is the result of wage pressure from high unemployment and bubble popping in the real estate sector.
All this whipsawed by the Reserve Currency impact on other countries and our financialization of their economies. Maybe we should ask other countries if there is inflation or deflation.
When does this slow motion train wreck move to another stage?
There was a feeling of great calm and serenity as I gazed ahead at a bright light at the end of what looked to be a tunnel, but my bad it was just a KIA with a busted headlight and the other on high-beam, as we made our way to the Nevada side of Heavenly, for a 3rd day of frozen waterboarding, economic torture to the tune of $87 per lift ticket...
We made a few runs and then headed for the tall timber so we could drink from our bota bags full of 200 proof everclear laced with as better to be able to ski down through the forest for the trees doing pro bono work without a helmet.
Couldn't believe how many empty stores there were in South Lake Tahoe, and the casinos aren't just hurting, they are getting killed...
CR had a thread earlier in the day about how much money Nevada casinos lost last year, but check out these numbers for just 5 casinos in SLT, they lost $259 million on $427 million in revenue, as opposed to 32 casinos in Washoe Co. (Reno-Sparks) which lost $47 million on revenues of $1.6 billion. That's night and day~
Methinks that there was a disagreement in management and the
the coverers-up were too stupid to hide or destroy the evidence.
Prolly thought the appraisals would show an increase - after all real estate only goes up - when it didn't they failed to bury the body deep enough or talked about it and were ratted on [w/ all the lay offs & disgruntleds running about no surprise that might happen].
North lake Tahoe aint much better. Casinos are dumps (except for the Crystal Bay Casino), and even presidents Day weekend was lame (except for Tea Leaf Green rockin a few shows).
Heavenly had no shortage of customers, but they are only getting the weekend crowds and it's dead mid-week. We skied at June Mountain with about 150 other people on the slopes on a picture-perfect weekday. The bus driver @ Mammoth told me weekdays were down there quite a bit also.
Was about 65 bucks at Homewood. Absolutely packed on Presidents day weekend. Tho 50 degrees and good snow will do that.
I'd love to see the 'economics' on one of these hills - costs & necessary revenue fully penciled out - bet a lot of the cost is amortized in the purchase prices hedgies paid all levered up for many of them - more bubble fallout.
I believe I have seen a walk away in PDX in higher end SW hills. No for sale signs in last 6-months.... The moving van showed up a few days ago during one of my walks, the next time there was only an engine hanging on a nice lift with plastic hanging over all and a pile of junk and now there is nothing.
That's not a surprise--their markets closed Friday after the rate-raise crash but before the great and miraculous we-didn't-mean-to-imply-that-we-might-drain-liquidity-we-just-wanted-you-to-know-the-economy-was-healthy reversal and they've got some catching up to do.
We usually ski at Sierra Summit above Fresno, and it's got a state of the art 1959 lodge-motel-not very updated, has modern lifts but nothing fancy, no gondolas or anything. My wife and I can ski mid-week for $159 per day including a motel room. It's about as bare bones of a place as far as amenities go, but has good skiing and snowboarding. It's for sale, which means it's probably not making money.
How are the ones with fancy schmancy amenities doing?
anyone thinking of purchasing California GO bonds? almost 7% taxable seems pretty decent as a deflation hedge. I'm thinking of putting a bit in to hedge.
anyone thinking of purchasing California GO bonds? almost 7% taxable seems pretty decent as a deflation hedge. I'm thinking of putting a bit in to hedge.
How are the ones with fancy schmancy amenities doing?
I couldn't tell you - last time I mountain skied it was at Red Lodge about a decade ago - now I mostly go XC in national forests in N Wisconsin & Minnesota. Places I ski are free - amenities are the local tavern afterward for beer & beer-cheese soup.
Just a WAG, but given all the churn over the last 10 years, it's likely that they're levered up and Falling Knife
That's what put Whistler into receivership wasn't it? They levered up to build a bunch of condos [some hedgie's smart idea] and they didn't sell. I'd guess all the biggies did it.
That's what put Whistler into receivership wasn't it? They levered up to build a bunch of condos [some hedgie's smart idea] and they didn't sell. I'd guess all the biggies did it.
Not just condos but the purchases of the properties themselves. Epic fail on projected revenue streams. Same thing that sunk tishman. It's true, you make your money on the buy not the sell.
Coming up from the Nevada side ski lift of Heavenly, there was this brand new monstrosity of a 'cabin' right next to the slopes. It was about 3,000 sq ft, 2 stories, with lots of fancy see me-dig me touches...
Even your general obligations bonds? If you don't mind can I ask why? This would be more of a long term hold for me than a short-term trade. tia.
Well, first, I don't buy munis or state bonds directly, only through funds, so I look at this through that lens.
In answer to your question:
1. Too many cities about to blow up. When I see cities like Los Angeles announcing layoffs of police officers, I know that they always react too little, too late. They didn't have enough cops in the first place. So I figure they're :screwed: (oops, no icon).
2. The Cali state constitutional convention movement just collapsed. So no fixes to the underlying problems.
3. Rates in general seem to be going up lately, so even at 7%, GO bonds will probably lose value as rates go even higher.
4. Did you see the link above about the city of Tracy charging for 9-1-1 calls?
5. Sovereign defaults follow financial collapses by about two years according to Reinhart and Rogoff.
I don't California G.O bonds as a good deal right now. 7% may not look like much in a few years. If that happens big hit to NPV and the value of par at return of principal. If the do prove to be excellent yields you'll get calls at the worst times. There might be a few special district bonds trading below par or with short maturities or no call date that might be worth a look.
What does it mean if prices gp up 5%, but median wages decline by 5%? Seems you have the worst of both inflation and deflation. Everything costs more, but your debt gets bigger every year. You're being squeezed at both ends.
First. But will there be more perp walks?
So is he going to get a stern reprimand from the FDIC? "Don't do that again!"
BWAHAHAHAHA, I can hardly wait for them to start sifting through my failed banks deals. The owner also owned a construction company. Millions of dollars of loans were made to the construction side from the bank. The construction company is in deep trouble as well. My bosses husband works for the construction side and they've had huge layoffs and shortened weeks...
The medium-small fish get the perp walk, the big fish get tens of billions and a "heckuva job".
Probably a note in his file!
Now just imagine what Concealing Material Facts BB and the Fed are concealing
greenchutes wrote:
Well, hell, those guys are "savvy businessmen".
greenchutes wrote:
plus an interest rate structure to die for and interest payments for life on their "reserves"
greenchutes wrote:
No big-fish perp walks? Then civil disobedience by 2012. Interesting election, and the GOP fixer/consultants may wish they never organized the tea-party movement.
Bob Dobbs wrote:
Are the checks going to bounce?
Bob...It's alive! Tea Party and Frankenstein's monster have a lot in common. Question is whether it can dance to Puttin' on the Ritz.
Rajesh wrote:
I'm thinking they'll get out of control; some might be coopted by new leaders.
Make him a teller, for the next 30 years and he can't miss a single day or work.
revocation of holder in due course is at the discretion of the creditor.
Bob Dobbs wrote:
Sort of like training & arming the Taliban to fight the USSR, right?
I'm sure FHA could use someone of his background to aid in their effort to expand.
TJ and The Bear wrote:
TJ and The Bear wrote:
The Taliban were armed to fight the Mujaheddin.
The Mujaheddin were armed to fight the USSR.
edit: The USSR were armed to fight the Nazis.
OT: Gold/Inflation. As long as humans experience irrationality, fear, and panic, we will witness major shifts in what is at any time window described as the store of value.
I define inflation as the price of all other commodities in comparison with what I recognize and conclude is the store of value within a specific nation-state. My decision is based on what I believe is the asset then trending higher, that asset being substituted at the time of the zenith of the then current bubble.
As Soros said, gold is the ultimate bubble. We have not seen that puppy go parabolic in a 90 degree angle, during this cycle. We will; of that I am certain.
So, when one measures inflation, at this time, it imo must be against the price of gold as measured in USD's.
What I expect is a black swan event which will catapult gold due to panic and mass hysteria of the crowd. It always happens. We're no different now than we were 100 years ago, or 3000 years ago. Panics happen. Preparing for them is conservative and wise.
Im gonna reply again because I really enjoy your work here.
When a check writer stops payment on a check to the lowest common denominator, you can rest assured the check writer will recieve a valuable set of discovery questions from a questionable lawyer that owns a check cashing business.
"What we have here is a failure to regulate".
Slumdog wrote:
Oh yeah. Problem is -- unlike the last spike -- the USD will not survive this event in its present form.
The SEC will never get a confession out of anybody.
from your lips to God's ears.
Every time I hear a Republican bitching about welfare, I ask them what we should do with Jamey Dimon.
TJ and The Bear wrote:
I like the new Dollar coins. I got four of them and not a bad President in the bunch. It will get tougher as we go down the list.
Sweet!!!
scheme to conceal material facts...
This needs to start with small banks and build into an all out attack on wall street, because obviously those bastards have all been guilty of a scheme to conceal material facts!!
Ouch... that last goal will leave a mark.
Obviously BB has a cloaking device on the
YouTube - Klingon Cloak Test
or try to see and hear: YouTube - Klingon Bird of Prey Decloaking 2
I still haven't heard why a publicly held bank receiving Fed assistance isn't a material fact requiring immediate disclosure.
The whole system reeks.
Rajesh wrote:
The only dollar coins I like have a walking liberty on the front and an eagle on the back. They are a little heavy, though.
TJ and The Bear wrote:
What if the value of the dollar dropped by 7X over the next 50 years? Would you call that a collapse that would destroy the currency and the USA?
If so, then your wrong. It collapsed 7X from 1960 - 2008.. Guess what, it's now in wider use than ever before!
The Inflation Calculator
James Rose
Nice food for thought but America is by far the toughest nut to crack since corporations lead by the nefarious
own Wash DC
Is the sun about to set on the corporate machine?
James Rose
longwaver wrote:
Hardly. I'm not saying the USA will be destroyed, although it will certainly undergo some wrenching changes.
The SEC will never get a confession out of anybody.
don't be too sure about that
Litigation
Flowers on the Wall
Night everyone.
The Tea Parties are a mass of different groups all caring about multiple issues, they are in no way a cohesive group, but maybe they can be loud enough to get the attention of some of the current carpet baggers.
Hey, I was just looking at the CPI report, and it looks like the numbers were calculated incorrectly. Has anyone noticed this?
TJ and The Bear wrote:
We will; of that I am certain.
Oh yeah. Problem is -- unlike the last spike -- the USD will not survive this event in its present form.
TJ, I agree...
Alex Grey at comments to Duncan article at FT Alphaville just wrote this:
"....the crisis is global this time and it could eventually engender major foreign exchange crises. One can think of Japanese banks entering another crisis and being forced to liquidate their dollar reserves causing an exchange crisis for the US, which in turn would amplify the US recession/depression"
So, it's not so black swan after all. We have Toyota's income stream effectively dramatically curtailed. This will cause the Japanese banks to disgorge USD's. Here is the the exchange crisis mentioned above. Buh bye USD. Hello Gold.
Amen ...
"Every time I hear a Republican bitching about welfare, I ask them what we should do with Jamey Dimon. "
Calif. city charges fee for 9-1-1
Residents forced to pick yearly subscription or per-use fee for 9-1-1.
For some reason this triggered the thought 'bring out your dead' from Monty Python and the Holy Grail
noob goldberg wrote:
Grrr. Go back to your curling.
whoops forgot link Tracy Residents Now Have To Pay For 911 Calls - cbs13.com
The other question is what have the Dems done with Jamey Dimon? Not a dam thing different.
noob goldberg wrote:
Yup, Statistics Canada skrood up, again.
NW
sm_landlord wrote:
Wow. What else does noob do? A real renaissance man. Noob do you primarily curl your own hair? Or do you have repeat clients? Is that something you picked up during down time while driving a truck?
longwaver wrote:
Funny thing is, four 1960 quarters are worth over $11.00 today.
Just depends how you count dollars.
Yah gotta love
Squid - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
The skin is covered in chromatophores, which enable the squid to change color to suit its surroundings, making it effectively invisible. The underside is also almost always lighter than the topside, to provide camouflage from both prey and predator.
At the front of the mantle cavity lies the siphon, which the squid uses for locomotion via precise jet propulsion. In this form of locomotion, water is sucked into the mantle cavity and expelled out of the siphon in a fast, strong jet. The direction of the siphon can be changed, to suit the direction of travel.
YouTube - The Incredible Mr. Limpet
sm_landlord wrote:
Actually, I've spent the entire night drinking and politicking. I'm going to bed now because I have 12 straight hours of meetings tomorrow.
But I couldn't resist tweaking the commentariat. I should really be watching the Canada-USA hockey game (which I just did for the past hour), but I'm exhausted and if I'm not completely focused tomorrow I'll end up with way more work over the next year than if I can control the situation. One night away from hockey and CR is worth a years worth of slacking
Mike in Long Island wrote:
I have a buzz cut; the only hair worth curling on my body resides on my chest.
And I'm seriously debating about waxing my entire body, because my youngest continually uses both my chest and leg hair as leverage for climbing. It brings tears to my eyes every single time.
noob goldberg wrote:
Is it youngster's climbing or you lack of clothes that brings the tears?
"And I'm seriously debating about waxing my entire body, because my youngest continually uses both my chest and leg hair as leverage for climbing."
I gotta go , I can't top that ...
OT but interesting.
Jesse's Café Américain: Modern Economic Myths and The Failure of Financial Engineering
sportsfan wrote:
I wonder if our kids will be saying the same thing about the tin and pot metal coins of today in 2060?
Jd,
share with the group the findings of the Heavenly adventure.
mmckinl wrote:
My thoughts exactly.
I posted this in the morning, but another heads-up for those interested.
I'm looking forward to watching Children of Men on Syfy at 9 p.m. tonight.
YouTube - Children of Men - Making Of
I just can't get enough
by only reading the comments on CR's blog.
YouTube - Zager And Evans - In The Year 2525
Until I see perp walks at major regional banks, I'm gonna consider this a show trial only.
Write it up, trot it out and let the world know that the feds are on the job.
Hell, it's like jailing Mortie Schellhammer for running a still in a Chicago garage and letting Capone go.
NorkaWest wrote:
HA! I don't sit on that advisory committee, so I take no responsibility for CPI calculations. But I will say that just got a lot of mileage out of those CPI numbers over the past week, professionally. It was something that only took a couple of hours, that I did on a lark, that resulted in a great deal of positive feedback. I can work on esoteric crap for years and not have anyone appreciate it, but throw together a bunch of
statistics in a couple of hours and have people falling over each other congratulating me.
There's no justice in this world. By the way, I've consumed a great deal of alcohol this evening and if there's ever a time to use the 'ignore' feature of hoocoodanode on noob, tonight's your night.
I personally find alcohol a great help in handling kids who are climbing up the hair on my chest.
They have a far shorter way to climb when I'm slumped in the corner.
NorkaWest wrote:
It's the pain. Both from the physical hair removal, and the recognition that I'm so short-sighted as to forget to throw on a t-shirt in the middle of the night when I pull the baby out of her crib.
homedad43 wrote:
It blinds them for a moment, but they seem to recover quickly.
noob, you didn't vote in liz's poll yet as to whether we'll see deflation, flation or inflation.
Liz, I see you had three guests vote, they are evenly divide one vote in each category.
sm_landlord wrote:
Somehow I think you know the answer to that one. Of course, scrap metal could be valuable by then.
Comrade Kristina wrote:
I was torn between the deflation of my ego followed by inflation of my mid-section. I went with deflation, as that seems to be the most immediate concern.
When it comes to the issue of mid-section inflation--as the only person on hoocoodanode that's met me in person can attest to--what's done is done.
EDIT: Okay, before I embarrass myself any further,
. Time to sleep this one off, it's an early morning.
Actually had a fascinating conversation with church youth tonight. First Sunday in Lent typically referred to as "Satan Sunday" since the gospel refers in one book or another to Christ's temptation, so the conversation turned to whether evil exists and if so, in what guises it resides. Showed clips from Schindlers' List and Pacino's Devil's Advocate.
Discussed whether a corporation can be evil, per se, and used Goldman Sachs as an example. Referenced the shorting of products that it simultaneously sold to customers as well as the more recent example of helping Greece hide it's debt. Had to really work to make the concepts doable but they followed. Consensus was that it was certainly behavior that would make you think it was evil. By evil, engaging in behavior and submitting to temptation that separates one from God.
Only goof was that the Schindler clip was of the Nazi Concentration Camp Commandant sniping at isolated Jews to spur the others along and it was interspersed with his topless girlfriend in his bed.
Oops.
noob goldberg wrote:
When it comes to the issue of mid-section inflation--as the only person on hoocoodanode that's met me in person can attest to--what's done is done.
Inflation only creates the illusion of economic growth...
homedad43 wrote:
I accidentally showed 'The Graduate' once to a youth group. Oops indeed.
ResistanceIsFeudal wrote:
I support the economy by purchasing increasingly larger sizes of clothing.
km4 wrote:
From the article: "Residents can pay a $48 voluntary fee for the year which allows them to call 9-1-1 as many times as necessary.Or, there's the option of not signing up for the annual fee. Instead, they will be charged $300 if they make a call for help. "
Local government as blackmailer, as predator. Since probably about half the residents in Tracy are busy abandoning the place -- it's in an RE bubble zone that crashed hard -- nobody local is paying attention.
I'm still in the "flation" camp akin to Dryfly's great comment of deflation in what you want and inflation in what you need.
I just think that the deflation will occur but doesn't take the larger world stage in account. As the Fed continues to monetize, the other countries will move away from the dollar and shift to another form of currency. Since our economy is driven by a physical commodity that is majority imported, anything with a significant transport component will ratchet upwards.
noob goldberg wrote:
I support the economy by purchasing increasingly larger sizes of clothing.
I still occasionally wear clothes I wore in high school. Fortunately there is not that much of the wardrobe left
It's too bad you can't just trade up by selling off your old, non-fitting clothes and rolling the profits into ever-larger garments!
noob, can't tell if kidding or not. Suspect so...
but, the kids - including own daughter, and ain't that uncomfortable - blew over it as got into the discussion and the sight of a grown man randomly potting prisoners behind wire.
The clip from Devil's Advocate is scene #37 in which Keanu Reeves confronts Pacino's Satan and engages in interesting dialogue about free will and identity. Bunch of f-bombs but no worse that what they hear in school and it's an instructive and engaging scene.
pavel would've enjoyed the session immensely since we also touched on moral relativism.
Bob Dobbs wrote:
I see the company that landed the billing contract is getting 15% of each fee. $45 per item billed and collected seems a bit steep to me but what do I know.
Anyway, there's always a workaround...
Tracy Press - Council chooses paramedic fee collector
[Ambac, MBIA Inc. and Assured Guaranty, the three largest bond insurers, have set aside 0.04 percent of the total public finance debt they insure, or $520 million, to pay claims on municipal securities, according to regulatory filings by the companies]
More Bullish glass 1/2 full preparation. Wonderful oversight too! Why bother reserving at all ? What's this insurance worth ?
Nikkei on SUPER-
FIRE
You have a kitten?
I didn't know guests could vote.
Welcome guests.
I don't understand - how is this any different than Banks holding securities without marking them to market? Is this guy in trouble because he did it before the rules were changed & everyone could do it?
Inflation has gotten only 3 votes.
I voted for both, as in whipsaw action.
bearly wrote:
Crap. I was planning to buy some Japanese stocks tomorrow. Couldn't
have given me a window before he skied them?
When I first come down here to go to law school in '72, I worked
by today's standards
for the First National Bank of Blah, Blah. One branch. When they
got examined, a batch of paperwork I have no idea what it was,
got moved from desk to desk because they didn't want the examiners
to see it. I'm sure it was a
When I represented First Federal of Blah Blah. they really sweated
it; I don't know whether they did anything to hide anything. But they
were in a mess, and I suppose everybody knew that. They are about
20 years gone.
I thought you could only vote once? 2 names?
Eric K. wrote:
I bet if they hadn't ordered the second appraisals and said - hey no problem, same as it ever was - and used the old original valuations to show the examiners they'd be 'okay'... then it would just be sloppiness and not criminal. But once they had the second appraisals and decided to cover it up - that's where they screwed up.
Lesson learned: don't look, don't ask and you won't have lie about any of it later.
Oh, well, nobody's on.
Nitey-nite.
Yah-hoooooo.
New Icon everybody!!
lawyerliz wrote:
Appropriate too.
lawyerliz said:
"Inflation has gotten only 3 votes."
I will vote for inflation as in the result of printing the trillions since the bailout.
I will vote for deflation as is the result of wage pressure from high unemployment and bubble popping in the real estate sector.
All this whipsawed by the Reserve Currency impact on other countries and our financialization of their economies. Maybe we should ask other countries if there is inflation or deflation.
When does this slow motion train wreck move to another stage?
What fun.
psychohistorian wrote:
When you least expect it and can least afford it.
reading but not commenting cause im stupider than usual (which is pretty damn stupid)
except one thing
regarding CRs observation that
"Hiding material information from examiners is pretty stunning ..."
yeeeeaaa id plead the defense....
hey this is "proprietary information" and uh as such, ah.... im not at liberty to divulge the details
yeah..thats the ticket...
besides ben bernake told me bankers are allowed to keep secrets..
If they were gonna hide it, why spend money on 2nd appraisals.
Methinks that there was a disagreement in management and the
the coverers-up were too stupid to hide or destroy the evidence.
Frankly, I'm not stunned at all. I would expect it to be
extremely common.
Now

Norka's for deflation.
West's for subsequent inflation when velocity ramps.
Deflation, unless and until all the freshly printed money gets into the hands of the peasants.....
deflationista... a tired deflationista.
There was a feeling of great calm and serenity as I gazed ahead at a bright light at the end of what looked to be a tunnel, but my bad it was just a KIA with a busted headlight and the other on high-beam, as we made our way to the Nevada side of Heavenly, for a 3rd day of frozen waterboarding, economic torture to the tune of $87 per lift ticket...
We made a few runs and then headed for the tall timber so we could drink from our bota bags full of 200 proof everclear laced with
as better to be able to ski down through the forest for the trees doing pro bono work without a helmet.
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
Is that for real? That's what a lift ticket costs now?
Down goes Canada !
USA!
The housing market here in the greater PDX metro is like molasses. No reason to build any new SFR for 24 months, at least.
Couldn't believe how many empty stores there were in South Lake Tahoe, and the casinos aren't just hurting, they are getting killed...
CR had a thread earlier in the day about how much money Nevada casinos lost last year, but check out these numbers for just 5 casinos in SLT, they lost $259 million on $427 million in revenue, as opposed to 32 casinos in Washoe Co. (Reno-Sparks) which lost $47 million on revenues of $1.6 billion. That's night and day~
lawyerliz wrote:
Prolly thought the appraisals would show an increase - after all real estate only goes up - when it didn't they failed to bury the body deep enough or talked about it and were ratted on [w/ all the lay offs & disgruntleds running about no surprise that might happen].
North lake Tahoe aint much better. Casinos are dumps (except for the Crystal Bay Casino), and even presidents Day weekend was lame (except for Tea Leaf Green rockin a few shows).
It was $87 @ Mammoth and $68 a June Mountain...
There's going to be one heck of a shakeup in the ski resort industry, there's about 10 resorts in the Tahoe area alone.
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
You mean $87 a day per person is too much for J6P & family? Hoocoodanode.
Was about 65 bucks at Homewood. Absolutely packed on Presidents day weekend. Tho 50 degrees and good snow will do that.
Heavenly had no shortage of customers, but they are only getting the weekend crowds and it's dead mid-week. We skied at June Mountain with about 150 other people on the slopes on a picture-perfect weekday. The bus driver @ Mammoth told me weekdays were down there quite a bit also.
dr munch wrote:
I'd love to see the 'economics' on one of these hills - costs & necessary revenue fully penciled out - bet a lot of the cost is amortized in the purchase prices hedgies paid all levered up for many of them - more bubble fallout.
I lived down the road from Homewood 25 years ago and had a season pass there, great views of the lake and a fun little place to ski...
I believe I have seen a walk away in PDX in higher end SW hills. No for sale signs in last 6-months.... The moving van showed up a few days ago during one of my walks, the next time there was only an engine hanging on a nice lift with plastic hanging over all and a pile of junk and now there is nothing.
bearly wrote:
That's not a surprise--their markets closed Friday after the rate-raise crash but before the great and miraculous we-didn't-mean-to-imply-that-we-might-drain-liquidity-we-just-wanted-you-to-know-the-economy-was-healthy reversal and they've got some catching up to do.
We usually ski at Sierra Summit above Fresno, and it's got a state of the art 1959 lodge-motel-not very updated, has modern lifts but nothing fancy, no gondolas or anything. My wife and I can ski mid-week for $159 per day including a motel room. It's about as bare bones of a place as far as amenities go, but has good skiing and snowboarding. It's for sale, which means it's probably not making money.
How are the ones with fancy schmancy amenities doing?
A-basin 2010 season pass includes 5 days Breck + late last season: $349
anyone thinking of purchasing California GO bonds? almost 7% taxable seems pretty decent as a deflation hedge. I'm thinking of putting a bit in to hedge.
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
Just a WAG, but given all the churn over the last 10 years, it's likely that they're levered up and
poic wrote:
I'm selling the last of my munis tomorrow.
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
I couldn't tell you - last time I mountain skied it was at Red Lodge about a decade ago - now I mostly go XC in national forests in N Wisconsin & Minnesota. Places I ski are free - amenities are the local tavern afterward for beer & beer-cheese soup.
"I'm selling the last of my munis tomorrow. "
Even your general obligations bonds? If you don't mind can I ask why? This would be more of a long term hold for me than a short-term trade. tia.
sm_landlord wrote:
That's what put Whistler into receivership wasn't it? They levered up to build a bunch of condos [some hedgie's smart idea] and they didn't sell. I'd guess all the biggies did it.
dryfly wrote:
Not just condos but the purchases of the properties themselves. Epic fail on projected revenue streams. Same thing that sunk tishman. It's true, you make your money on the buy not the sell.
Coming up from the Nevada side ski lift of Heavenly, there was this brand new monstrosity of a 'cabin' right next to the slopes. It was about 3,000 sq ft, 2 stories, with lots of fancy see me-dig me touches...
I suppose it was $2 or $3 million or more
With a for sale sign on it, unoccupied.
poic wrote:
Well, first, I don't buy munis or state bonds directly, only through funds, so I look at this through that lens.
In answer to your question:
1. Too many cities about to blow up. When I see cities like Los Angeles announcing layoffs of police officers, I know that they always react too little, too late. They didn't have enough cops in the first place. So I figure they're :screwed: (oops, no icon).
2. The Cali state constitutional convention movement just collapsed. So no fixes to the underlying problems.
3. Rates in general seem to be going up lately, so even at 7%, GO bonds will probably lose value as rates go even higher.
4. Did you see the link above about the city of Tracy charging for 9-1-1 calls?
5. Sovereign defaults follow financial collapses by about two years according to Reinhart and Rogoff.
I don't California G.O bonds as a good deal right now. 7% may not look like much in a few years. If that happens big hit to NPV and the value of par at return of principal. If the do prove to be excellent yields you'll get calls at the worst times. There might be a few special district bonds trading below par or with short maturities or no call date that might be worth a look.
lawyerliz wrote:
What does it mean if prices gp up 5%, but median wages decline by 5%? Seems you have the worst of both inflation and deflation. Everything costs more, but your debt gets bigger every year. You're being squeezed at both ends.
km4 wrote:
Fire, police and EMS insurance? Is that a tax revolt I smell? If you turn the heat up on your frog too fast, he'll jump out...