Mortgage Delinquencies by Period
Submitted by
CalculatedRisk on Fri, 02/19/2010 - 9:14am (216 comments)
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What will we call the '07-'10 period? The Post-Modern Solvency Extinction Event?
Pretty colors...
Its a stunning chart and says it all. Thanks CR.
yagij wrote:
What will we call the '07-'13 period? The Post-Modern Solvency Extinction Event?
yagij wrote:
It's got a nice ring to it...I like it.
we need something with a good acronym though...I dunno if PMSEE is gonna cut it.
Interest Rates: Who's Afraid of the Fed? Market Actually Wants Rate Hikes - CNBC
OT: Bulldozed Home Photos - Photos - WLWT Cincinnati
I think it is news that the 30 day delinquencies declined, but so what? 30 day delinquencies are still at levels that pushed down house prices in 2007 and early 2008 (back when lenders actually foreclosed).
It is the foreclosures that pushed down house prices ... and many more distress sales are coming.
best to all
That is a very colorful tsunami chart!!!
"[Boeing to lay off 1,020. This is part of Chicago-based Boeing (NYSE: BA)'s plan to cut 10,000 jobs companywide]"
don't worry that will be balanced by 10,000 new hires in Mumbai and Chengdu.
No net job losses
It seems obvious that the pipe isn't wide enough to handle all of the foreclosures, which is a sort of extend and pretend in of itself.
Maybe this will lead to more loan mods and short sales as opposed to foreclosures.
OT: Got skillz? Citi's hiring!
Treasury Analyst Job in Sioux Falls 57101, South Dakota US
poic wrote:
See, just like all derivative positions netting out!
CalculatedRisk wrote:
It's all about the cure rate.
bearly wrote:
I have a sibling who is hoping like mad to get a "golden ticket" (layoff notice). His department got moved from Seattle to Everett, so he now has a 90 minute commute. But he can't get unemployment if he quits. He's asked his boss to give him "extra consideration" if they have to downsize : ).
poic wrote:
don't worry that will be balanced by 10,000 new hires in Mumbai and Chengdu.
And some more well-earned executive bonuses for innovative cost-cutting!
The guy quoted in that CNBC article doesn't know his history about double dips and gd 1.0. We're making exactly the same mistakes second go round.
I really hope house prices go down, especially for aging houses.
Comrade Janošik wrote:
The PMS people will have to get over it. It seems apt to me because when everyone is going broke will you still be able to SEE your PM?
.
Gavshire Hathaway wrote:
I can see the Dilbert comics of '11. Instead of hoping and praying that they can make it through the next round of layoffs, everyone will be hoping and praying that they do get laid off. The era just keeps getting more "interesting".
CalculatedRisk wrote:
Which puts another wave of homeowners into negative equity position and those that already were, deeper upside down. Causing more FCs.
If the foreclosure process is completely jammed, the "throughput" can't increase, unless you put more people on the job. Otherwise, you just extend the foreclosures out for years and years. How many years of foreclosures do we have at the present rate of sausage making, then?
Ya but Market Watch says
Home foreclosures start to tail off, MBA says - MarketWatch
Huh?
Perhaps he could trade paycheck for UE check and let a laid off worker go in for him.
I asked earlier today, "How many purchase/refinance loans made in 2005-2007 are still active?" As the number of these loans shrinks due to foreclosures and short sales the universe of loans that could fail gets smaller.
As a start in answering this question, CR's chart in this post shows that each quarter since the beginning of 2007 there has been between 1 and 4% of homes "in foreclosure." Assuming that it takes one quarter to actually foreclose, it looks like about 25% of loans made during that period have been foreclosed. More have been closed out through short sales.
Since there are fewer vulnerable loans, the number of delinquencies should also decrease.
The debt market requiring higher rates due to lack of demand versus too much supply of government debt is very different than rates rising due to improving economic fundamentals.
Apparently this too hard a concept to grasp for most economic forecasters.
Another part of this massive tsunami chart/wave is the amount of shadow inventory waiting in the wings, i.e., people that want to sell that are holding on another year to sell ... so,that back pressure is sort of going to be like a backdraft in an elevator shaft (see: :elevator backdraft: ).
Also see: YouTube - Backdraft Trailer
Check that door for heat?
But over here they say everything is OK. Amazing
AT&T
Dons
and 
in preparation for opex.
We need a new reverse
for anyone short on these sortsof days. I'm thinking brown colored glasses or glasses with chunks of crap on them.
Has anyone linked this yet?
$1.5 billion in housing help for unemployed, underwater - Feb. 19, 2010
The initiative calls for pumping money into state housing agencies in California, Arizona, Nevada, Florida and Michigan to fund programs to prevent foreclosure for people who are unemployed or who owe more than their homes are worth.
Once again, Obama ain't helpin me none.
:temper trantrum:
poic wrote:
Safety goggles.
Doc Holiday wrote:
Strangely I am seeing the opposite, people are unemployed and not moving due to spouses job or anchor of housing.
Lots of jobs that can't get filled because people don't want to relocate. Many recruiters are hitting up employed people trying to get them to move to CA.
"The senior administration official was vague about how these agencies would help the target audiences, saying mainly that these groups are intimately involved in their local housing markets."
Hell, just give em 1.5B, they will figure out what to do with it.
Besides, it is TARP money, won't count toward the deficit.
OT re Greece:
Problem solved: reparations for WW2 and it's all good. Should be fun to watch skinheads in the fatherland react to this one:
Greek MPs lash out at Germany over debt crisis
What will we call the '07-'10 period? The Post-Modern Solvency Extinction Event?
Ja, and post-modern too.
the calm before the storm...
In the immortal words of Sally Brown:
All I want is what I... I have coming to me. All I want is my fair share.
(You know. Charlie Brown Christmas)
poic wrote:
Well, this works pretty well for me...
...or glasses with chunks of crap on them.
Work in meat packing?
poic wrote:
Won't work. Humans are happy-go-lucky risk takers with greedy brains. Evolution is slow, and stupid people breed. Maybe Larry Niven was right about the Puppeteers-- risk taking is a form of insanity.
scone wrote:
scone, get yourself some full spectrum lighting - stat!
Home foreclosure troubles only hibernating MarketWatch First Take - MarketWatch
hibernating, isn't that something that bears do?
Bubblisimo Gerkinov wrote:
Safety goggles.
Gas mask would be quite appropriate, I think.
yagij wrote:
The flip side: a couple of guys I know who set a retirement date two-three years off and groused that they had to work that much longer. Now, they say they'll feel lucky if they get to work that much longer.
Gavshire Hathaway wrote:
Another 10,ooo. Part of the mounting future shadow inventory of FCs.
Good read.
Debt Auctions Bombing ... China Heading For the Hills ... Higher Rates Dead Ahead! | Money and Markets: Free Investment Email Newsletter
scone wrote:
Humans are happy-go-lucky risk takers with greedy brains. Evolution is slow, and stupid people breed.
LOL - we aren't conscious risk takers though, largely. We tell ourselves bullsh!t stories that misrepresent actual risk, "success stories" to focus us away from statistical probability, or learned scenarios that serve to artificially limit our choices when facing a stressful situation.
everyone will be hoping and praying that they do get laid off.
Why?
scone wrote:
Niven never knew many people from peasant cultures, apparently. The greed's still there. Risk-taking, not so much. Risk-taking is much more fun in a well-off or middle-class society with safety nets. Which is what Niven grew up in and around. Yeah, I've met him.
this is OT but interesting: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aOWMcHKwqyEc&pos=11"
article on muni debt that could go bad...
a taste: "“It is a worst-case scenario if the dynamics of the municipal bond market change,” said Rob Haines, an analyst who covers the bond insurance business at CreditSights Inc., an independent research firm in New York. “The companies have modeled in virtually no losses.” "
We tell ourselves bullsh!t stories that misrepresent actual risk, "success stories" to focus us away from statistical probability
The hamburger ordered at certain at certain ff chains.
energyecon wrote:
You're right. The trouble with this blogging stuff is, it's a dopamine feedback loop. The doom is addictive, lowering feel-good chemicals like endorphins, but tapping the dopamine addiction button. It's not good. Then again, I've had the flu for a week, so my vitamin D is low. Wetware management is such a chore.
Thanks energyecon, I'm signing off.
energyecon wrote:
Won't work. Humans are happy-go-lucky risk takers with greedy brains. Evolution is slow, and stupid people breed. Maybe Larry Niven was right about the Puppeteers-- risk taking is a form of insanity.
Another victim of seasonal adjusted disorder?
Anyway, I like Niven's idea of our being bred for luck. This intelligence bit seems to be an evolutionary dead end.
Retirees Trade Work for Rent at Cash-Poor Parks - NY Times
Hope there are enough parks to go around, gonna be a lot of boomers who need a job post-retirement (does that even make sense - job post-retirement?)
"An itinerant, footloose army of available and willing retirees in their 60s and 70s is marching through the American outback, looking to stretch retirement dollars by volunteering to work in parks, campgrounds and wildlife sanctuaries, usually in exchange for camping space.
Park and wildlife agencies say that retired volunteers have in turn become all the more crucial as budget cuts and new demands have made it harder to keep parks open. "
Most adult men around me have been risk takers at some time in their lives, women no.
Niven never knew many people from peasant cultures, apparently. The greed's still there. Risk-taking, not so much.
Being only six months or a year away from slow starvation is a great inducement to conservative behavior.
scone wrote:
You still maintain a presence in meatspace? That's so last century. [Turns up the voltage on his virtual drood.]
pavel.chichikov wrote:
However, come six months and one day later and starvation is immenent it becomes a very real incentive to take excessive risks when there is nothing to lose.
Bob Dobbs wrote:
So have I. He's pretty widely travelled and didn't hang around middle class people only. That's why he was able to create such a wide range of characters. He's shy, but very observant.
riot- the unbeatable high wrote:
Make sense. The Fed Treasury will either bailout or backstop. This is no different from Money Market funds. Money Good!
I don't know what I find more disturbing: The fact that I can't understand a word of what you just said, or the fact that she probably knows exactly what you're talking about.
This intelligence bit seems to be an evolutionary dead end.
Remains to be seen, but I wouldn't discount the possibility. The most long-lived multi-celled species seem not to be great readers - turtles for example.
ghostfaceinvestah wrote:
It should be easy to pack your camper with all the tools you need to stay connected to the internet. Then you can manage your retirement business as you enjoy your travel but still generate income. In pre-internet days my aunt and uncle did well hauling a trailer full of MN antiques south to Texas for the winter and then repeating it in the spring. He got a $1 a foot for polypropoline tugboat rope he picked up on the beach
Rob Dawg wrote:
Anyway, I like Niven's idea of our being bred for luck. This intelligence bit seems to be an evolutionary dead end.
Evolution agrees. Lucky people are almost never unhappy. It's not that stupid people breed which is in itself a problem, it's that happy people breed, and stupid people are generally much happier than smarties (ignorance is bliss and all). Most risk is not consciously taken on, we just are sufficiently doped by our own neurochemicals and physiological feedback loops so that we don't think about the odds
edit: lunch. am I hungry or simply craving the action of the food consumption reward mechanism? who knows.
How are the increasing short sales with debt forgiveness affecting the delinquencies?
However, come six months and one day later and starvation is immenent it becomes a very real incentive to take excessive risks when there is nothing to lose.
It's much better not to get to that point, especially when you have dependents.
If I moved to CA my state income tax would more than triple and the rental cost of an equivalent apartment in SF or LA would be close to double. CA and IL probably have the same chance of the state going under, so that's a draw. But look at the salary difference between a professional in CA vs. IL. No way is it worth it. As a renter, I have no house anchoring me down and I still don't want to move to CA.
With all the money I save, I can visit CA whenever I feel like it. That's enough for me.
Rob Dawg wrote:
I actually do understand Rob Dawg. And that's disturbing. I'm going "out there" to test whether I still exist in some sense. Bye.
shill wrote: Good read.
Better read: China's not Selling, China's Buying -- Seeking Alpha
Most adult men around me have been risk takers at some time in their lives
It's much more amusing to read about adventures than to have them. Personal experience.
Hope you feel better scone - stay out of the wind. New environment, new viruses to build resistance to...
Outsider wrote:
What exactly will be accomplished? Is it basically a bonus check for the unemployed?
pavel.chichikov wrote:
Very true, but unfortunately we have too many grasshoppers and too few ants.
scone wrote:
I'm going out there to take my dog to the vet and pick up my brother's boat prop.
t r orwell wrote:
and the cure rate may be going down as well, does anybody know?
Chicago Dude wrote:
CA has special attractions for the foreign born and therefore worth more to that population(including the governator). The population in CA is now > 50% foreign born.
ResistanceIsFeudal wrote:
I've long asserted that mankind's epitaph would read:
"Here. Hold my beer and watch this."
But lately I've considered to changing to:
"Eh. What could happen?"
What exactly will be accomplished? Is it basically a bonus check for the unemployed?
Only if you're lucky enough to call those 5 states home.
As if they weren't deserving enough... My state is financially responsible, comparatively. I'll never win.
"Here. Hold my beer and watch this."
*But lately I've considered to changing to:
"Eh. What could happen?" *
Ending with: How was I supposed to know that?
ghostfaceinvestah wrote:
Hope there are enough parks to go around, gonna be a lot of boomers who need a job post-retirement (does that even make sense - job post-retirement?)
GFI, I thought this was a fascinating article showing the evolution of an underground economy as it happens. I have it bookmarked. Who knew that birdwatching skills would have an income-enhancing benefit!
shill wrote: "Good read"
from: TaxVox: the Tax Policy Center blog :: Is China Turning Bearish on the U.S. Treasury?
You've heard the spousal epitaph, I'm sure:
I told you I was sick.
pavel.chichikov wrote:
Then the clever ones say "That's interesting. How can I take advantage of this to make a profit."
what's not here are those one step away from 30-day delinquency. take a family member for example. bought a house 3 years ago, $60k underwater, hospital cut overtime hours, using his credit cards to pay for living expenses and part of his mortgage. can't move as he's got no equity and no cash on hand. he's near tapped out. called the bank for a modification they said you aren't considered a hardship since you're up to date on your payments. he told them not for long and they don't care. he has many friends in this exact same boat. this thing is not nearly over.
I think it's great for the penny-pinching retirees to trade work for free "rent".
Every dollar you save is an additional dollar you can spend somewhere else.
Every additional dollar you earn is about 60 cents you can spend somewhere else.
OT: Gold
With Eric as this morning's tell, his assuredness that my statement earlier that gold was going up was "wrong", good ole' luck this day closes spot gold at 1123. And once again assures me that fading anything Eric thinks is the way is a good bet. Sadly, I don't bet that way.
When The Great Doubling occurs, not only will I and many here be oinking in the luxury of an unleveraged double, but we will look at the then poo bah words of the great Eric once again for Eric's guidance on the next trade so I and they may smile and find ratification in Eric's need to answer the call, "humor over content", and fade the nit of that wit.
Pellice wrote:
And if you feel like writing about it, and/or take good pictures of the birds, you should be able to generate some income online from your internet enabled camper.
Ken,
Thank you for the ignore option.
MaryAnn wrote:
Since dating is risky for all parties involved, I would imagine that "most" of the adult men in your life engaged in such tasks. When was the last time you saw a married, non-risk taker?
ghostfaceinvestah wrote:
Around here, schools and churches that have been suffering vandalism are availing themselves of a new low-cost security system: caretakers. One of the districts in my areas now have two schools with caretakers. The caretaker brings his/her own trailer, the school pays a grand up front for hookups and $100/month to subsidize utilities. Another school is considering it.
Frankly, I'm thinking about suggesting it at our church. We get broken into a lot, and there's room to spare and no neighbors to complain (kinda why we need a caretaker).
Outsider wrote:
Don't think of them as 5 States. Think of them as 97 Electoral votes.
SNAFU wrote:
Why don't you just come out and say it - Illegal Aliens.
yagij wrote:
(Raises hand.) Took a while, but I got there. If you get to know the woman up front first, they're not so much a risk. And why is that a bad idea?
ghostfaceinvestah wrote:
Nihongo wo hanashimasu ka?
.
Yes, look to Japan for that kind of thought process.
Rob Dawg wrote:
A purchased electorate is a happy electorate
~splat
Arnold probably should be illegal, but then, he'd have to sign the bill wouldn't he ?
splat wrote:
Ad-Libs time! A purchased (noun) is a happy (noun).
.
Suggestions?
"Risk-taking, not so much. Risk-taking is much more fun in a well-off or middle-class society with safety nets. "
Risk-taking also occurs when you are down to the not-much left to lose (other than your life).
When my in-laws were in China pre 1980s you normally only got pork with your ration cards. My father-in-law faked being Muslim a few times to get a break in their diet. I believe they got lamb instead. Crappy tasting, old lamb but lamb nonetheless.
People apparently took all sorts of risks to gain economically but at great risk of jail time or worse.
bearly wrote:
The population in CA is now > 50% foreign born
Why don't you just come out and say it - Illegal Aliens.
If only things were so. California shows increase in native population - SFGate
California shows increase in native population
DEMOGRAPHICS
April 21, 2009|By Tyche Hendricks, Chronicle Staff Writer
For the first time in history, a majority of California residents were born and raised in the Golden State - a demographic sea change for a place that has long been defined as a land of migrants from other states and countries, according to a study released Monday by researchers at the University of Southern California.
Today, more than 70 percent of teens and young adults were born in California, up from barely half in 1990. As they age, they will become the first generation in the state's history in which a majority of people are California-born to assume leadership roles in society, according to the report "The New Homegrown Majority in California: Recognizing the New Reality of Growing Commitment to the Golden State."
" SNAFU wrote:
The population in CA is now > 50% foreign born
Why don't you just come out and say it - Illegal Aliens. "
Probably because everywhere I look I see legal aliens? Up and down my current neighborhood and everywhere in my old neighborhood as well.
Delightful insight there. I will have to hang my head between my knees and contemplate that primitive monkey brain tendency to overtrade.
Someday this war's gonna end...
yagij wrote:
A purchased
is a happy 
.
just watching quotes from Obummer on Bloomberg, no context, but...
"govt has role to play in resolving housing crisis" or something like that...
"taxpayer should not bail out irresponsible borrowers and lenders"
huh????
he makes no sense, but sounds good saying it.
I;ve got a new game to play.
Every time I hear Obama say "taxpayer should not bail out irresponsible borrowers and lenders" I put on a pair of
I've got so many pairs on now I can barely sit down.
scone wrote:
Hope your feeling better soonest, scone
scone wrote:
Well, that doesn't leave a lot then, does it? I sit here contemplating what perfect safety means,...
Rob Dawg wrote:
Another Galapagos fan...
yagij, you need to open yourself to a power mad woman climbing the corporate ladder, you can be the homedad, and practice law on the side while she conquers the mountains of corporatocracy. It is one compromise to pass on your genes, and might be a nice ride to retirement to boot.
Quien no se atreve, no pasaran el Mar.
Someday this war's gonna end...
bearly wrote:
WORSE.. many are 'tanned' or of 'less-than-pale' complexion
Let's see.. dirt poor, drug lord run, corrupt and dangerous hell-hole to the south and a stable, mostly run-by-law, wealthy neighbor to the North, where your kids might actually have a future... hmmmm. I wonder which place people would want to live-in and naturally migrate to.
I think the only thing I've ever agreed with Pat Buchanan on was when he said "The Mexican people are a good people, but they've been robbed repeatedly by venal and corrupt government". I think that's an understatement.
~splat
sdtfs wrote:
A General Products #4 hull is my choice.
Rob Dawg wrote:
Since the posters here pride themselves on being out in front, that sort of conflicts with the Hindmost theme
"We couldn't anticipate the presence of that much antimatter in the universe."
NateTG wrote:
There are a lot of fans around here.
NateTG wrote:
I wanna see the you tube of the flag planting trip...
Bob Dobbs wrote:
Somebody email Larry and tell him to get his @ss over here for a visit...
That ING ad with the nest egg numbers being carried around is starting to really annoy me - how many Boomers will really have 1.5+ mil nest eggs waiting for them?
We could be pets. We could be food. But all we really are is livestock.
NateTG wrote:
"We couldn't anticipate the presence of that much antimatter in the universe."
I bet the insurance rider against loss isn't sufficiently collateralized. Hoocoodanode?
Seriously, we are all worried about the next bubble? I think it is an anti-bubble. I can see cracks in the whole of the worldwide insurance sector. We could be one 6.5 earthquake away from this sucker going down.
Rob Dawg wrote:
and rates going UP UP UP !
~splat
In the story - clearly fiction - the insurance does pay out.
poic, Tiger Wood is/was a risk taker because he felt entitled because of position in life with wealth and power. Bill Clinton??
Marriage is a crap shoot that we will never know why or whynot it works or not.
splat wrote:
It is said that in the Palo Alto, Cupertino like areas, RRE commands a hefty premium because of the good school districts. So I doubt very much that foreign born illegals are able to pay that premium. The foreign born is mostly legal and are able to pay the difference in COL between Chicago and say Cupertino or Palos Verdes. I am not sure how much illegals influence housing prices and cost of living. Places like Stockton and Riverside are definitely cheaper than comparable places in Illinois, am I right?
greenchutes wrote:
"Bordered in Black?"
Went to the Dr. today. My wife had an appointment and so did I. I am doing the payment at the end. I'm standing in line behind a woman who is telling the guy behind the window "Oh, you were not here last time." She looks around, lowers her voice "I made arrangements with Dr xxxxxx. There should be a note..." Then it was mumble mumble as I stepped back a bit to give her some space. She looked like she was on edge...the sadness edge.
Walking out a woman strides past us and blasts through the door in the lobby. She is yelling into her cell "Glod damnit! I thought you said we got the Cobra extension..."
Frank Armitage, great writer.
"I would only hope that by striking a nerve that stimulates the inevitable double standard, knee-jerk government reaction that results in more stupid draconian restrictions people wake up and begin to see the pompous political thugs and their mindless minions for what they are."..... Mr. Stacks
This is the money shot right here. No wonder the media is downplaying the whole event. This is the exact same M.O. of Al-Qaeda, but we have no big media circus about it. Besides the pre approved terror attack over the holidays already renewed the patriot provisions.
nova wrote:
prolly see him on a milk carton
energyecon wrote:
CR-con!
bought some euros today vs usd, figure it is soon the usd's turn in the barrel, lol.
Try:
Ray Nelson - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
They Live (1988) - Memorable quotes
VIX down to 19.8. Let's see how low they push it this time.
I am reading Christoper Lasch, "The revolt of the elites: and the betrayal of democracy." Interesting book. Written 10 years ago it describes today. Why should people like Blankfein and the Tim care? Their vision of America is a hollowed out country. The 2 coasts and nothing in between. They don't live in America in their heads or hearts. They live in Moneyland.
why not wait until after the auctions next week? just trying to see your mo, not dissing you...
Rob Dawg wrote:
That would be a hoot...
Armitage (who is of course JC) wrote the screenplay, I think. Don't know if that line is in the original story.
greenchutes wrote:
Ah, thx - dunno either, never read the original but it sure seems topical today - like this:
edit: and They Live is still part of the best 'noia double feature of all time, along with The Hidden
energyecon wrote:
CR-con!
That would be a hoot...
Pig ears!
Late January redo ?
read the quotes, some of them are dead on scary....wonder what he thinks about 2012
i think the discount rate move is smoke and mirrors, bernanke is not gonna let the usd climb, we have too much military equipment that needs to be sold overseas, he'll do something to kill the dollar again.
Competitive devaluation = the fiat currency equivalent of Smoot Hawley.
"I would only hope that by striking a nerve that stimulates ...government reaction that results in more... restrictions people wake up and begin to see the pompous political thugs and their mindless minions for what they are."..... Mr. Stacks
so this idiot wants us to think he was doing us a favor? Get real.
nova wrote:
Yesterday's NYT article stated that Lord Blankstein's GS stock grant is worth ~500m$ at this weeks price. Moneyland indeed!
" MaryAnn (profile) wrote on Fri, 2/19/2010 - 11:36 am
* reply
* Ignore user
poic, Tiger Wood is/was a risk taker because he felt entitled because of position in life with wealth and power. Bill Clinton??
Marriage is a crap shoot that we will never know why or whynot it works or not. "
I think some risk-taking comes from greed and some from necessity. I don't think that lack of middle-class removes risk-taking. It simply changes what type of risk-taking occurs and for what reasons.
Don't think of them as 5 States. Think of them as 97 Electoral votes.
Of course. Duh.
My mind never bends the right way.
elizabeth warren has said that it is make or break time for the middle class
"elizabeth warren has said that it is make or break time for the middle class "
i vote "break"
mock,
Rasch was saying that 10 years ago. His theory seems to be "No middle class. No democracy."
Certainly some "market price lowering" short sales occur when loans are in the 30,60,and 90 day categories. The 30 day could be gowing down because short sales are going down more quickly. But it's also possible that the 30 day number is going down because there are fewer "rolling 30 day lates." Lets face it, most people who are close to being behind on their mortgages traditionally would keep trying to make partial payments, even if they couldn't stay current. I'd guess that in a more normal market, some people are 30 days late for months on end. But if you're intending a walk away, there's little reason to keep sending good money after bad. And a decline in "rolling 30s" could make the 30 day late slice decrease. So we really don't know whether a decline in 30 day lates is kinda-good, or really bad.
nova wrote:
Some argue that we have passed the tipping point for democracy when the number of people who are net recipients of tax money exceeds the number of people who are net taxpayers. I don't have the statistics at hand, but it seems likely that we're there now.
nova wrote:
And no upward social mobility, which eventually leads to revolution... This is why it is so important to get everyone into the workforce and preserve the system that allows you to work your way up... my first jobs were in janitorial and food service....
"Rasch was saying that 10 years ago."
Good thing we had two gigantic bubbles in the past 10 years to shake what wealth was left out of the middle class.
If only we could sucker them into one more, that should be the coup de grace.
Greek Spy Agency Said to Identify More Speculators - DealBook Blog - NYTimes.com
Citizen AllenM wrote:
The first step is recognizing the problem.
ShadowInventory wrote:
Judging by the NYT post earlier, many people's last jobs are going to be in ... janitorial and food service.
Damnit!
Doesn't anybody out there have real numbers of original vs outstanding mortgages by vintage?
Percentages don't mean much when the base number is changing.
mock turtle wrote:
Will the last middle classman leaving the last half century please turn out the lights? If you don't make yourself rich you will be made poor. The middle class experiment was noble and empowering but alas ephemeral drowning in the sea of its own success.
SNAFU wrote:
"The cost of living in Rockford, IL is 19.9% lower than in Stockton, CA. Employers in Rockford, IL typically pay 3.6% less than employers in Stockton, CA."
Jim A. wrote:
Interesting, and I think this should be able to be seen in the data, eventually.
Report: Officers lose 243 Homeland Security guns - CNN.com
Now dont you feel safe and secure? Protect yourself and guard your rights under the constitution.
Jonathan wrote:
No, their last job will be revolutionary soldier....
"The middle class experiment was noble and empowering but alas ephemeral drowning in the sea of its own success. "
There are thousands of years of human history voting against a sustainable middle class.
Property ownership was supposed to beget a large middle class. We saw how that worked out.
He had an interesting point. People employed in Object Analysis look down on people who work in jobs that physically require their presence. Labor v. Virtual work or manipulation of objects in virtual reality. Their disdain helped offshoring happen. Now it is their turn.
In other news Greek Spy Agency Confirms Legal Activities Rife. The news shook the Greek political establishment Friday, drawing protests across the board. The Greek Federation of Tax Avoiders pronounced itself "horrified" at the findings, and SLAKA, the miscellaneous student, deadbeat, and loafer disorganization said it would riot, speak to a free newspaper, or maybe paint a banner about the issue shortly.
C
ghostfaceinvestah wrote:
Again, we have a choice? Like we had a choice for TARP, TALF, BB's Reelection, or anything else associated with D.C. response?
Yalt wrote:
Surprising , more or so 'cause Stockton is 3rd in the country by the misery index(after Cleveland and Memphis).
I think how this ties into the topic is that many of those people bought into a media and consumer driven vision of what middle class was. They bought in with debt. Now they are losing it. It being everything - including the prime symbol of middle classhood - the house.
"Again, we have a choice? "
that is why i voted "break", not like the middle class are going to willfully go away, they need a push.
yagij wrote:
Shhh. Illusion of choice is a great salve. It is much easier to get them into the chutes if they aren't spooked.
Edit: Ken, can we get a "gelding hook" icon?
Dam those poor shorts.
http://static.businessinsider.com/image/4b7ed86f0000000000c18efc-549-347/chart.png
The destruction of the middle class by debt equals continued foreclosures. Continued foreclosures and the shutdown of middle class access to credit will equal the end of the overleveraged financial system. The result is
pie for everyone!
nova wrote:
Those people in the 500k-1.0m category will suffer too? Tease.
"Shhh. Illusion of choice is a great salve. It is much easier to get them into the chutes if they aren't spooked. "
That is why inflation is such an awesome weapon against the middle class.
I loved the CPI today - the shit you need to buy everyday like food and energy is spiking. But the stuff 66% of your already own, like a house, is dropping in value.
Yay, no inflation, isn't that great, now we don't have to pay you anything on your meager savings, nor do we need to increase your CPI-adjusted benefits.
LMAO, what a scam.
nova wrote:
Did the doctor thing too today with my wife. SNAFU's abounded. The biggest asset to cultivate now may be a smile and forbearance.
Rob Dawg wrote:
They are going to have to do a lot more than that. They will need to sell the Jetskis, boats RVs and their 2nd cars. To whom I don't know. They have a few problems on the way down the class hierarchy, like what to do about all the installment payments, HOA dues etc etc. This isn't going to be a smooth ride.
From what I've seen, all the OR coastal state parks are hosted by volunteers, usually retired people. I go mostly during the week in the winter & early spring (avoid crowds), & it seems to work ok, in that the volunteers are pretty pleasant & seem to take their responsibilities pretty seriously. But I think they might be not as well trained as they could be in responding to emergencies, particularly those that require calling some times of law enforcement. Particularly when the various law enforcement agencies used to vie to see who was best at avoiding taking a call, nope, sorry, not our jurisdiction! Call, OSP, CG, state parks . . .
Not quite as bad as it used to be in where I live, but if the coastal towns cut back on their police forces, it'll happen again.
The stages thing is definitely interesting. Sure, you have people in the angry stage already...but as a people watcher, most are just out there in sort of a dazed-dreamlike state. People are really having cognitive dissonance dealing with what is happening. Can't tell you how many times I have heard people out and about say 'I can't believe this is happening'...this, and most can't even define what 'this' is, couldn't happen here...
ghostfaceinvestah wrote:
Is there a link to the breakout? TIA.
Any woman who decides to get pregnant & take a child to term is taking a physical, financial & emotional risk.
Rob Dawg wrote:
On sale today, Dawg's industrial strength slave salve. Limit, one bucket per bank holding company.
After reading about the pallet loads of money being flown into Iraq last night ( thanks HG ) it is all fake.....so I
and 
the Dawg said
Ken, can we get a "gelding hook" icon?
agree, and I'd like to see a lemming (preferably cliff diving)
thanks
Mr Slippery wrote:
My secret formula is Preparation H with extra Lydocaine.
shill wrote:
re-link?
edit: found some links on google. I thought maybe there was a new, more recent shipment.
Vonbek777 wrote:
Sure, you have people in the angry stage already...but as a people watcher, most are just out there in sort of a dazed-dreamlike state. People are really having cognitive dissonance dealing with what is happening.
It's only going to get worse. You can believe whatever you want, creating your own reality...
until the money's gone...
and the house...
and the car...
and the job...
and the spouse...
Consumer Price Index Summary
"The food index rose 0.2 percent in January."
"The energy index rose 2.8 percent in January, its ninth consecutive
increase."!!!!!
"The shelter index
declined 0.5 percent."
Thanks Uncle Ben!
and in other news:
Elton: Jesus was a gay lord
Let me guess, he was feeling ignored again?
ghostfaceinvestah wrote:
Inflation in the things you need. Deflation in the things you cannot afford. Where have I heard that before?
ghostfaceinvestah wrote:
And laws pertaining to real property were unique, because the ownership of property historically carried with it economic empowerment. I am sure most of our ancestors immigrated to the U.S. because they had a better shot of owning land here than anywhere else in the world. But the securitization of mortgages changed real property law. Property law and chain of title is no longer sacred. They sliced, diced, and tranched the middle class until there was nothing left.
"I know, that I've criticized this state and the city of Las Vegas, and, uhhhhh, my good friend Mr. Harry Reid is taking a bath in the polls here. But, let me be clear about one thing, uhhhhh, this $1.5 Billion is the right thing to do, and, uhhhh, will bring Nevada back from the brink, and, uhhhhh, buy lots of votes, so, uhhhh, here's a cookie and, uhhhhh, sorry for bashing you people in the past, I uhhhh, will just have to, uhhhhh, blame that on Bush somehow." -BO
How the US sent $12bn in cash to Iraq. And watched it vanish |
World news |
The Guardian
( Thanks goes to HG )
the Dawg said
Ken, can we get a "gelding hook" icon?
agree, and I'd like to see a lemming (preferably cliff diving)
thanks
"My secret formula is Preparation H with extra Lydocaine. "
A fellow SRS investor I see.
I'd be willing to bet 30 day foreclosures only declined because banks are spending more time trying to sell existing homes, or modify existing loans.
Aren't the moratorium about to end too?
And waitress 1 Miller Light please.
bearly wrote:
Check out my recent HOA/tax/rent analysis: Exurban Nation: A Little Off The Top
Homeowners Association Dues: $211
Tax (2008) $5,384
Got that? $660/mo for the privilege of ownership.
You might get $1300/mo renting this out. That leaves $640 for debt service. That sets the value at $143,000. Asking price? $285,900.
Thanks ghost.
The other thing that jumps out: 51% increase in gasoline. Somebody in the fed should be happy about that number offsetting housing.
I wish you all would quit talking about the middle class as if it were already dead.
We just need a good dr.
Vonbek777 wrote:
Saw him and Billy Joel the other night. It was a nice concert for us (the overweight advanced middle age boomer crowd)
if he could find happiness thru all his trivails then this depression is a piece of cake....time for some german chocolate cake..
Too early for flapjacks?
poic wrote:
I don't think those two things should really be mentioned in the same sentence.
another great "help for downtrodden homeowners" Obama announces $1.5 bln for struggling homeowners - MarketWatch
CR you may want to start tracking cities that file for Chapter 9
More Cities Weigh Chapter 9 Filings - WSJ.com
Harrisburg, Pa. ( check )
The seldom-used part of U.S. bankruptcy law gives municipalities protection from creditors while developing a plan to pay off debts. Created in the wake of the Great Depression, Chapter 9 is widely considered a last resort and filings under it are more taboo than other parts of bankruptcy code because of the resulting uncertainty for everyone from municipal employees to bondholders.
Q: "But the fact is billions of dollars have disappeared without trace."
Oliver: "Of their money. Billions of dollars of their money, yeah I understand. I'm saying what difference does it make?"
Big fan of both, musically. I learned a long time ago to separate the music and the musician. Too many crazy musicians just like philosophers
Outsider wrote:
We just need a good dr.
You're right. Or, as I've said before--a good lawyer.
from the article "Who in their right mind would send 363 tonnes of cash into a war zone?"
must have been Milo Minderbinder's kin
must have been Milo Minderbinder's kin
Then there had to be a Catch
SNAFU wrote:
Rockford unemployment is 14.0%; Stockton is 15.8%.
When the coffin maker is measuring you for your coffin, and the vultures are circling...just maybe its time to come to terms.
ummm, the same guy who had yellow "cake" smeared all over his face as he made his case for war....
"Got that? $660/mo for the privilege of ownership."
so much for property ownership growing the middle class. Throw in some +/- 40% volatility to shake out the strong hands.
Maybe we can sell the jetskis back to the Chinese peasants who built them?
Well said; and disturbing.
Thank you very much for your insights. Your commentary is helpful to parse through the noise and the many distracting and mixed messages provided by speakers and the press with regard to what really is going on.
Speaking of the impending wave, I know of people who walked away from their homes more than a year ago but against whom the bank has not foreclosed. BofA in particular appears to be overwhelmed and without a clue. Cheers.
What's really striking here is that if you combine the 90 day and in Foreclosure, they are about the same size as all past due in the 2005 and 2006 periods.