Fed's Lockhart: The Economic Outlook: A Tale of Two Narratives
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CalculatedRisk on Thu, 02/18/2010 - 4:21pm (340 comments)
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HOOPAJOOPS FOR THE STEAL
Typical lawyer. Stealing.
At first blush I thought A Tale of Two Cities - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
It depicts the plight of the French peasantry under the demoralization of the French aristocracy in the years leading up to the revolution, the corresponding brutality demonstrated by the revolutionaries toward the former aristocrats in the early years of the revolution, and a number of unflattering social parallels with life in London during the same time period.
However too many Americans are too fat, lazy, and ignorant for
I have to wonder about whether there is one narrative missing: In this narrative, the ongoing declines in house prices due to HAMP, HAMA, HAPA, HEMP, short sales and old-fashioned foreclosures induce more walk-aways to the point that a phase change occurs in the system.
I'll go with Narrative #3.
the economy sliding back into recession
Lockhart has bought into the "new normal." How many other Fed heads are in that camp?
"The consumer did it in the yellow room with a checkbook"
Yup gotta go with
( 3rd narrative )
Monetary policy—as evidenced by the fed funds rate target—remains accommodative.
Accommodative to
The rest of you poor savers and producers don't count.
Consumers increasing their savings rate might be enough to cause narrative #3 to manifest.
Everybody is cutting back. A lot.
I would not interpret this action as a tightening of monetary policy or even a sign that a tightening is imminent. Rather, this action should be viewed as a normalization step.
Thank you Mrs. Lincoln. How was the play?
kidbuck wrote:
Yes, I stopped counting around 13,000,000,000,000.
I'll go with #3 as well.
None of these bimbos acknowledges the unprecedented level of mortgage delinquencies and underwater borrowers. That problem is not going away, and in fact is getting worse.
Add in the record federal debt, skying commodities prices due to fiat currency debasement, and we are in for a world of hurt.
2010 is going to make 2008 and 2009 look mild, we will consider those "the good old days" soon.
I'm somewhere between 3 and 1. I dont believe the consumer has truly learned their lesson, and once jobs arent as scarce, they'll be back to their high DTI days.
Lending to them may be a bit problematic as there might not be the collateral from RE, but I still think the consumer is tightening their budget long enough for confidence to return.
The jobless recovery continues....so once again I see
I think this talk of a "new normal" is funny. How about we just call it the "normal normal" when you actually have to be credit worthy to get a loan. 2002-2008 easy credit era should never be viewed as "normal."
JP wrote:
Are you saying homes melt and become liquid? Gaseous?
sm_landlord wrote:
Everybody is cutting back. A lot.
A stupid level of overextension is eventually followed by an equally-stupid level of contraction... TPTB can only smooth the descent somewhat - people will do what they will do.
Also, monetary policy may be accommodative, but it's not having the effect that it normally would, with the banks not lending and very few (businesses at least) even wanting to borrow.
"I have to wonder about whether there is one narrative missing: In this narrative, the ongoing declines in house prices due to HAMP, HAMA, HAPA, HEMP, short sales and old-fashioned foreclosures induce more walk-aways to the point that a phase change occurs in the system."
I'd include that in #3. In fact that is the primary reason I am sticking with #3.
The government is going to have to keep increasing military spending in order to keep this charade of a "manufacturing rebound" alive.
If only we could afford it.
I dont think people are cutting back as much as they could, especially those people who are not making mortgage payments, living rent free until kicked out - I think a lot of those people are still eating out and going on vacation etc... Here in the Phoenix area the economy should be totally dead, but places are crowded in the evening....
But seriously, the concept of 'in the fullness of confident faith'... do you believe it is even humanly possible?
I have no idea. People aren't salamanders.
I spoke personally with a priest who was told by a cardiologist in Baltimore that he was going to die soon from heart disease. After the priest, Fr. Ron Pytel, prayed for the intercession of the Blessed Faustina Kowalska, the physician examined him and said [paraphrasing]: I don['t know how to explain this, Ron, but you've got a friend somewhere. I can't find any evidence that your heart is still diseased.
So in that case someone's diseased cardiovascular tissue was healed - or something happened that changed it.
Fr. Pytel was examined by other physicians, and the case was forwarded to Rome and included in the process leading to the Blessed Faustina Kowalska's sainthood. The medical panel usually includes non-Catholics, and I think may include non-believers.
"A stupid level of overextension is eventually followed by an equally-stupid level of contraction... "
It is not a stupid level of contraction. It is a great reckoning, as boomers realize they don't have 1/10th of what they are going to need in retirement. They need to start saving, and fast, in order to even pay living expenses in retirement, let alone live in the comfort to which they have grown accustomed.
The next shoe:
"In a brief question-and-answer session with the audience afterward, Duke said that in the future the rate of interest that the Fed pays on reserves that banks keep with it likely will become a key policy tool."
ShadowInventory wrote:
I noticed a certain "eat, drink, and be merry, for tomorrow we may die" attitude. People do tend to drink under stress.
ShadowInventory wrote:
They cut back as much as they have to in order to sustain the illusion that they can still live like the class above them 
I dont think people are cutting back as much as they could
Funny. My narrative goes something like this:
7.An American who no one expected to do so discovers a new way to create huge amounts of cheap energy. The US balance of trade improves immensely. The inventor dies mysteriously.
ShadowInventory wrote:
I also saw more people out on my last trip to LA. Still, there were plenty of parking spots in the business districts.
In a generic sense, yes. If you examine how a liquid freezes, there is a point at which the microscopic interaction of singleton molecules causes a large overall change in the system.
Similarly, I'd expect that there is a point at which the microeconomic interaction of singleton debtors causes a large overall change in the macroeconomy.
Recession 2010-Q3
ghostfaceinvestah wrote:
Yes, they need to start investing heavily in gov't treasuries.
Moving paper around doesn't mean much when the paper has no backing in real goods & services.
Can't we just skip the "recession" talk and call it what it is? GD2
Comrade Kristina wrote:
Sure.
Comrade Kristina wrote:
Can't we just skip the "recession" talk and call it what it is? GD2
Isn't it funny how Goldman-Sachs and Glass-Steagall have the same initials?
mp wrote:
If you see how bad the cities and schools are going to be hit this year and next, I have to vote for recession as well.
pavel, from your account, these priests sound like they must have truly powerful magical spells at their disposal. Their god must indeed be powerful, and their prayers potent. Should the need arise, I am confident that these and other acts of sorcery will show the benefits granted to the faithful by their god, and will convince us all of the validity and correctness of their theology and philosophy. Can they use such powers to smite and cow their enemies, as well?
Can't we just skip the "recession" talk and call it what it is? GD2
It is what it is. Probably calling it a "depression" is not far off.
Printing "money" mostly just screws the Chinese.
It's letting
as primary dealers make a fat bonus from their position in the cartel that's starting to raise hackles.
.75%, what a punishment. NY Fed lost billions on Bear Stearns. JPM made billions on Bear Stearns. Bonuses were paid.
Next week, Bernanke must testify.
Security theater: F-16’s Patrolling Skies Over Crash Site « Liveshots
ghostfaceinvestah wrote:
One word
, ghostface. Homeland-Security. There are stealth trillions being shoved up this orifice. 
pavel, from your account, these priests sound like they must have truly powerful magical spells at their disposal.
No magic is necessary or required. In fact, it's prohibited.
rosethorn wrote:
Your tax dollars at work. You know they're not doing that for Joe Stack's benefit.
Really sad.
Electricity cut off. Using logs in a BBQ grill to keep kiddies warm.
Family of five in the Magnolia area was hospitalized with carbon monoxide poisoning - 2/18/10 - Houston News - abc13.com
pavel.chichikov wrote:
I assume you're familiar with Occam's razor. I also assume you're familiar with the imprecise state of modern medical technology. So I have difficulty putting those two assumptions together with your story.
mp wrote:
I tend to agree. But are poor as the market is, it usually does tank ahead of economic recessions by ~6 months. So it had better do something soon to confirm.
rosethorn wrote:
"The jets were launched at 1142 ET, about 1 hour after the crash occurred."
That is downright embarrassing.
Anyone know the MBTF of an F-16 off the top of their head?
Sure it's theater. We'll see if today marks the beginning of the end of general aviation and getting "little planes" without "flight plans" out of the air. Hope not. By the way, there's a recording of the pilot talking to ATC as he took off. Very calm and professional.
bearly wrote:
Bearly, I divorced the stock market from economic realities forty years ago.
It's really not a very good indicator one way or the other.
Didn't realize we were
been hanging around in the last thread wondering where everyone went.. anyway repost:
Did anyone catch this from Pat Buchanan:
'And here is where Barack Obama hits the wall.
Republicans are not going to give him a single vote for a tax increase. Not only would this violate a commitment most made to the people who elected them, it would be politically suicidal. For behind the GOP today, and its best hope of recapturing Congress in 2010, are the tea-party irregulars.
And tea partiers now play the role of Red Army commissars who sat at machine guns behind their own troops to shoot down any soldier who retreated or ran. Republicans who sign on to tax hikes cannot go home again.'
November's consequence: A paralyzed government
JP wrote:
My experience is that aircraft tend to fall apart the longer they sit on the ground. Something seems to break every 10 hours or so, without accumulating any flight hours.
I assume you're familiar with Occam's razor. I also assume you're familiar with the imprecise state of modern medical technology. So I have difficulty putting those two assumptions together with your story.
Take it up with cardiologists. I only know about their conclusions. It's not up to them in these cases to declare a miracle. That's not their concern. What they might decide is that the outcome of the case is not in any way explicable by any process known to science. Period.
You can invoke the Razor, but what's it worth if you begin by begging the question?
mp wrote:
Okay, mp. You put out the blankets, I'll lay out the settings and when Bill gets here we'll have a party.
What is your personal network doing regarding housing this spring:
My network:
Unlike 2009, where people were nervous, it appears that my friends want to buy and sell this spring.
We'll see if today marks the beginning of the end of general aviation
That's one of the first things that occurred to me.
Dead Shtick wrote:
Aw, hell. General aviation is already screwed. You know the TSA is going to turn the screws even more.
Frankly, I suggest they start securing parking lots, you know, ala McVey.
Yeah, let's turn it into a real police state.
There was another bomb threat on a jetliner today around the same time as the attack in Austin. That may be why the fighters were called out.
The Associated Press: Flight diverted to Salt Lake after bomb threat
They also had a note from the Austin guy found in his car stating he had planted a bomb at that airport.
Mr Slippery wrote:
I would bet on recession. If we didn't have to wait X number of months for the NBER to verify who won.
A paralyzed government
That's all we need - not.
My network:
pavel.chichikov wrote:
Most drugs fail to outperform a placebo, and have worse side effects...
JP wrote:
You may be onto something. There is an extensive literature on how traffic can change from independent free-flowing gaseous state to liquid or laminar flow. For example, http://arxiv.org/PS_cache/cond-mat/pdf/9509/9509075v1.pdf Another physical example is diffusion vs effusion. In one case, the debtors aren't interacting. In the other case, actions of many debtors tend to sweep others with them.
It is entirely possible that independent actions by many debtors could at some critical point transform into synchronized action, like going from gas to liquid.
mp wrote:
It's the only way we can compete with china!
I knew the job market was increasingly political but this is the first time I've seen it in the job header.
Libertarian SW/Internet Engineer/Infosec Consultants
It's an attempt to underscore the seriousness of the end of this chapter of the MBS travesty.
The market responded appropriately to the fake orgasm in AH.
pavel.chichikov wrote:
You would be surprised to talk with medical professionals who have been in practice for decades... I don't know what the statistic would be exactly, but it seems that an uncanny number of the health professionals I've encountered inevitably have run across at least one case they simply can't explain and regard as more-or-less miraculous. This doesn't mean it's inexplicable of course, just that it struck them as unexplainable and unique in their experience.
Take it up with cardiologists. I only know about their conclusions. It's not up to them in these cases to declare a miracle. That's not their concern. What they might decide is that the outcome of the case is not in any way explicable by any process known to science. Period.
Dead Shtick wrote:
From my understanding, people who've "made the decision" often are pretty calm. Fair number of pre-meditated suicides in these parts involving SF peninsula commuter trains. One who survived said she'd never felt so calm and focused.
mp wrote:
You know there are those among us who think that surrendering our freedoms, is a good thing.
President Obama has proposed the largest defense budget since World War II. - By Fred Kaplan - Slate Magazine
This will keep the "manufacturing recovery" alive.
I love how it is called "defense" spending, guess we are still "defending" Japan and Germany.
Bob Dobbs wrote:
NBER hasn't declared the current one over yet. What if they do that right in the middle of the next one?
People will really be confused.
Most drugs fail to outperform a placebo, and have worse side effects...
Most? Anyway, there's a saying: Show me a drug with no side effects and I'll show you a drug that doesn't work.
Most of those are stressed-out PA younger people. Sad.
MrBeach wrote:
I fired my realtor in New Hampshire because she's a crazy nutcase, and read my realtor in Oregon the riot act, because she's doing stupid shit I expressly told her not to do. It should have felt good. But no.
new updates on fed st louis
St. Louis Fed: Updates
M1
St. Louis Fed: Series: MULT, M1 Money Multiplier
I love capacity utilization..
St. Louis Fed: Series: CUMFN, Capacity Utilization: Manufacturing (NAICS)
I say we should all be ready to...not just seniors
YouTube - Reo Speedwagon " Riding The Storm Out" From XM Radio
Blackhalo wrote:
You know there are those among us who think that surrendering our freedoms, is a good thing.
The great thing about rule by experts is that they may know more than we do about what is best for us. The crappy thing is that what may be best for us is probably not best for them.
MrBeach wrote:
Well, they had better sell fast. My connection, a VP with a title company, said his business took a HUGE spike in orders since beginning Feb. Their orders you ask - TSG Reports (Trustee Sale Guaranty ). These are done ahead or Trustee sale. That means FCs are going to pick up steam big time, starting very soon.
MrBeach wrote:
The buyers want the low rates and payments, maybe tax breaks. The sellers want to get out at what they perceive will be the highest price for a while.
Blackhalo wrote:
Yeah, hell, they don't even ask any more. Why bother.
Reminds me of the school district in Pennsylvania mentioned in the news today.
Sent the kids home with computers to do their school work, but the school failed to mention they were watching them at home via the built in webcams.
my network;
1. Ivy league educated VP at "investment firm"- lost job last week
2. IT guy at local private college for 10 years- lost job last month
3. Friend who thought buying 2 houses in texas in 2006 was a good idea- sweating it out, not spending
4. Friend with job at local realtor association- sweating it out, not spending
mp wrote:
You gotta think like a pandering politician. Who uses parking lots? Everyone, and they wouldn't stand for them being locked down. Who uses airports? A small minority of rich guys (that's the perception, and I've already seen it on the board today). Get 'em out of the air, and boast to the public about how you've secured the skies.
mp wrote:
Too late.
MrBeach wrote:
Are they paupers? 1 Million apparently only buys an ugly storage shed in Venice.
America the Terrified.
mp<
I posted about that earlier....
"There has been one constant in the defense budget ever since the mid-1960s: the money has been divided almost exactly evenly—never varying by more than a couple of percentage points—among the Army, Navy, and Air Force. For all of Gates' apparent rationality, the same is true in this budget: 32 percent goes to the Army, 35 percent goes to the Navy, 33 percent goes to the Air Force."
That is truly sad.
Thanks for your reply. As a skeptic, I can acknowledge that people who have faith can make things happen. Even healing themselves. Big fan of determination in the face of odds. Why the paraplegic joke is so compelling though...and your answer vexing, in a good way of course. I still struggle with the problem of evil. Dostoyevsky's Brothers Karamazov train ticket analogy stayed with me.
MrBeach wrote:
-- Hyman Minsky 1975
edit: off to the soul crushing commute...
I sense a bit of fear in my little world. For most I think it is because they expected Mr. Happy to be back in town by now. Instead he is not returning their calls.
A small minority of rich guys. Get 'em out of the air, and boast to the public about how you've secured the skies.
A friend's son in law is a retired Air Force colonel with combat experience. He flies recreationally, and he's not rich. Not a pauper, but not rich.
rosethorn wrote:
Yeah that warmonger President John F Kennedy had a better idea with his only spending 3 times the federal budget proportion on defense.
HomeGnome wrote:
I'll tell you what. It's a good thing my child was never sent home with a device like that.
I'd hire Hoopajoops and two or three of his friends and fuck with those people the rest of their natural born lives.
Of course, Hoopajoops would end up owning me, but the satisfaction I'd receive would be worth it.
Vonbek777 wrote:
I don't see that as strange at all . . . and I'm far more a non-believer than just a skeptic.
I found the Catholic Church's apparent appreciation of Marx, as shown in tg's link on the last thread, as a more startling event than what is basically the old saying that a patient's attitude can affect the outcome.
M1 multiplier at 0.809. That's
, right?
TSA just needs some catchy phrases like "Freedom Friskings" or "Patriot Scans"
pavel.chichikov wrote:
Pavel, I'm reasonably sure he was snarking. Airplanes are money pits.
kidbuck wrote:
You can find stuff in Venice under $1m. The new Whole Foods at Rose&Lincoln is going to help gentrify the blocks all the way down to Main St.
Then again, I better not say that.
I heard a rumor that Hoopa can kill vampire goats while being pursued by Mafia hitmen from a failed business deal....
Boats will be next. Just wait until someone drives a yacht into a building.
Outsider.
Good. Their world should have sunshine and first times that are good in every way. That is what old guys like me need to protect.
Outsider<
The Matrix has you.
Outsider wrote:
What? I thought you were a guy! Er, or are you?
Vonbek777 wrote:
Hey! bin Laden said it would come to this. As far as I'm concerned, the son of a bitch has won.
He scared the shit out of the government, which is now scaring the shit out of us.
rosethorn wrote:
Navy getting too much?
I found the Catholic Church's apparent appreciation of Marx
It's not the Church's appreciation. It's some guy who writes for a Church newspaper. The Catholic Church is not the great monolith a lot of people think it is.
There's a monsignor who thinks there are or might be aliens off-planet. People think that's the Church's official position. It's not, it's just one person's opinion.
Bin Laden didn't win. The people that are coming along now as part of what he started will.
mp wrote:
Goldman Sachs is a bigger threat than bin Laden.
oxtail..there are so many
that I can't contain my glee...
I'm going to have a bottle of
» Anderson Valley Brewing Company – Boont Amber Ale
best ale I have ever had...
JP wrote:
Agreed. My guess is they are sitting on at least $1M in "equity" - and don't want to sell their home for less than what its "worth". So instead they'll rent it out. I can't imagine they'll cover even their property tax+insurance+upkeep with the rent.
HomeGnome wrote:
Interesting discussion worth watching.
Power of Small Nanotechnology
The 9/11 survivor on this panel who is willing to sell out on any privacy concern for any security potential, largely unchallenged, raises my blood pressure.
Yeah, I was snarking about the public's perception about flying. I don't know many pilots who are
s. I used to fly with my grandpa in his Champ on the farm-- he sacrificed to be able to afford it.
"Finally, in this narrative the banking system successfully navigates a weak commercial real estate sector and starts expanding credit to both business and consumers."
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
Think in terms of a Marine with fore fingers in ears tap, tap, tapping a path through the minefield of the 'weak' CRE sector.
Yeah right...I posted this on previous thread Infographic of the Day: The U.S. Trade Imbalance Eclipsed by Competing Charts | Design and Innovation | Fast Company
have to go to full size on US Merchandise Trade to better see what's happening and it's not pretty
A disc representing 2009 is superimposed over a disc representing 2008 to show how much expenditures on imports such as cars and consumer electronics has decreased from one year to the next. The same technique is applied to exports, indicating the slowing of economic activity at home. And in the end, despite our new austerity, the aggregate total of imports for both years far exceeds the aggregate total of exports, leading to America's trade imbalance.
now go to America's service trade which is carrying more and more of America's economic load. To no surprise look how well financial services is doing led of course by the
broward wrote:
Dey don' wan' no f'in F-35s. Let them pay fer Navay force presentation and dey be happi wid half.
what happened to the coast guard?
Just saw an ad on CNN describing the derivatives debacle and pushing to pass the financial reform. It said "they made bets on mortgages and then made bets on the outcome of the bets and then bet on the bets on the bets....Priceless...
I don't know if their budget is handled the same way anymore, but it used to come under the Department of Transportation if I remember correctly.
I think the Coast Guard is funded in the HomeLand Security budget.
This is dedicated to Joe Stack. Way to go, dumbass! (It appears impotent, angry men are not the exclusive domain of Arabs...)
YouTube - Jeff Dunham - Walter on Suicide Bombers
pavel, thanks for your opinion on the subject. I was looking forward to it. It doesn't have to be 'official' for my take.
CK if the MSM has it and is also monetizing it, they will soon be shouting it from the rooftops
MrBeach wrote:
I hear Whole Foods is quite a scene already.
Rose Ave below Lincoln was always a pit, it could use the help.
pavel.chichikov wrote:
Hey, I think I know that guy.
monsignor: Tomorrow Night!
brianinboise wrote:
Funny thing is, they always were. Some folks just never recognised that.
It reminds me of the communism scare tactics of many years ago. Communism was never a threat to the U.S.
Bin Laden was little more than the "shiny object" for us to gawk at while they robbed us blind...
Goldman Sachs
Osama is contained within....maybe they are one in the same....
Bin Laden was the leading edge of a change. We blew the chance to influence the course of that change. Now we will live with it for decades.
Conjure is studying the proposed Obama military budget and has announced that he may tick the clock.
Blackhalo wrote:
"You have zero privacy anyway - Get over it."
--Scott McNealy, CEO, Sun Microsystems.
Two or three years ago it was just another snake cult, now... they're everywhere.
I honestly haven't looked at it yet, but my Dad asked me this morning if I had looked at it...you got me curious now.
mp wrote:
Has he considered the latest report from the IAEA on Iran?
Conan!
sm_landlord wrote:
Still a pit. Though bracketed by Rose Cafe at Main st and Whole Foods at Lincoln, I think the area will clean up.
The street already has one of my favorite LA clothing shops: DNA Clothing Company
Just traced
prehistoric ancestor that belonged to an extinct group of immense fishes that ate by drifting slowly, mouth agape, sucking down plankton and other tiny aquatic life.
New Giant Prehistoric Fish Species Found Gathering Dust in Museums | Wired Science | Wired.com
Rajesh wrote:
The Iran situation is figured in through Friday of last week.
The prices of Brentwood and all the charm of Sawtelle (minus the great asian food).
mp wrote:
That's a no, then.
Rajesh wrote:
What's the latest?
MrBeach wrote:
It's not the retail which is the problem. I've been a member at a gym near there for a long time. Plenty of marginal people nearby.
When does the last UI extension run out ?
bearly wrote:
What state?
IAEA thinks they are working on a nuclear missile now.
IAEA fears Iran working now on nuclear warhead
| Reuters
bearly wrote:
The day before the riot.
Comrade Kristina wrote:
Not a biggie. I'm sure they plan on using the warhead for peaceful purposes. Maybe crowd control?
Comrade Kristina wrote:
No surprise there.
Is anyone surprised?
creditcriminalslovetarp wrote:
Highly inflationary... We are completely debasing the currency at this point.
Here is the reconstructed M3:
Some key statistics
On Obama's budget commission. Bush had one that went nowhere. One of the chief budget enhabcers was gradually reducing the Home interest deduction. I will wager $50 to the tip jar it's on the new list. It won't fly because the
will kill it, but it'll be there.
Fair Economist wrote:
National firm.
mp, what does Conjure think of the cozy relationship developing between Russia/Greece and Russia/Iran? Why is this making me uneasy?
Ask the savvy businessmen what they know.
Bernanke Is Asked for Fed’s AIG Documents by Issa (Update2) - Bloomberg.com
That Dimon fellow, he's a director of the NY Fed, but makes his money in the free market, of course.
mp wrote:
I am surprised to catch the U.N. speaking the truth. I thought that was below them.
Shhh.... don't spoil the greenback rally.
We can make it to .70 CHF with one big push, boys!!
word association time...for some reason the word bogs just popped into my mind...peat bogs...I don't know bogged down... bogs...
Comrade Kristina wrote:
The global community, which includes our real and potential adversaries, detect weakness in the United States. They will attempt to exploit that perceived weakness, which is probably why you are "uneasy."
In relation to Russia and Iran, that is a long and on-going relationship. After all, they share a border.
In relation to Greece, Conjure and I would call it a type of sovereign shit stirring.
Please keep in mind that opinions are like a******s, everybody has one.
And some people have two.
greenchutes wrote:
"What is steel compared to the hand that wields it? Look at the strength in your body, the desire in your heart, I gave you this! Such a waste. Contemplate this on the tree of woe."
I thought the Russian mafia was done with London and the French Riviera, and decided to try Greece.
mp wrote:
That, and the threat usually gets the IMF's attention. "Give us the loot, or we'll let the Russkies build a base here".
greenchutes wrote:
Switzerland is becoming affordable again... for several reasons
Frankly, I say let them have the bomb, with the understanding that, if they ever use it, we will vaporize Iran.
All of it. Every square foot of it. Period.
Have a nice day.
mp wrote:
Let me guess who gets the oil.
Who would believe us?
The Japanese.
some investor guy wrote:
It makes no difference to me. They don't have that much left, anyway.
2nd narrative quote:
"2010 is going to be uglier than hell," Church & Dwight Co. CEO Jim Craigie said on Wednesday. "I don't see the economy coming back at all."
mp wrote:
They shared a border when it was the Soviet Union.
mp wrote:
Not worth the effort to think about, in the greater scheme of things related to surviellance
Good point...
whoa nellie...that is scary......is that your site?
theme music.....
Homer Blues Rockstar on MySpace Music - Free Streaming MP3s, Pictures & Music Downloads
scroll down to song titled I wonder.... should be a popup player...what your gonna do when your money is gone....
friend is playing the lead guitar....little stevie ray sound...
smlandlord- ever go down to harvelles...had some good times there..
some investor guy wrote:
They still do. The name has changed, but the players are the same.
JP wrote:
There's a lot of routine maintenance done to planes in general to avoid in-flight failures. Even more for helicopters. I'm not sure MTBF is a significant matter for these planes. However, the lifetime of these airframes can be 50 years or more. IIRC, the F-16 airframe is already 40 years old.
Honestly, this admin has no credibility in terms of delivering on threats. Nuke 'em?
Ri-i-i-i-i-ght.
Iran would probably more scared if we threatened to turn the squid loose on 'em.
BO's all blow.
heavy sour...hence why they really do need nuclear power...I heard they go dark in less than 10 years....
They want a nuke because they feel threatened. They just need to look across the border at Iraq.
Cinco-X wrote:
Yup. Ed Heineman delivered the project for General Dynamics.
He went all the way back to Douglas's lean-to in Santa Monica.
iceman wrote:
In theory, current economy should be a plateau and then we take another step down.
creditcriminalslovetarp wrote:
They are already forced to import gasoline, but mainly due to a lack of refining capacity, I hear.
If they wanted to run power reactors, they could buy the fuel ready-made from the Russians.
B-52 airframes are over 50 years at this point I think.
mp wrote:
"border countries: Afghanistan 936 km, Armenia 35 km, Azerbaijan-proper 432 km, Azerbaijan-Naxcivan exclave 179 km, Iraq 1,458 km, Pakistan 909 km, Turkey 499 km, Turkmenistan 992 km", CIA - The World Factbook -- Iran
You're counting the Caspian Sea?
creditcriminalslovetarp wrote:
No it is not. It is Bart's (screen name not real name).
The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory Message Board - Msg: 26229069
Heck, the USS Midway went almost 60 years. It floated instead of flew. At the end I think they had to put inflatable supports around it.
nova wrote:
Didn't they start flying in the 1950s? Well over 50 unless they have retired the older ones.
"Normal" "challenge". . .what if we were not allowed to use those words?
They actually have the nerve to use the word "earners".
homedad43 wrote:
If you are getting vaporized by a hellfire....not so much. There's blow, and then there's BLOW
The PA student thing sounds like something coming out of Philly and the mind of some complete wack-job.
That said, I mentioned it aloud several minutes ago and my teenage son blew a gasket. I concur.
Not saying that what they did was right - it wasn't by any means - but having a teenage son, I have a sneaking suspicion about what was happening with the laptop and why something was said, right or wrong (for the record, it was wrong!)
Ahem
nova wrote:
Once we finish paying off the counterparties, and rebating the taxes paid by the homebuilders, we will work on updating those airframes. After all, first things first...
pavel.chichikov wrote:
Actually, placebos do work a fair amount of the time, and used o be prescribed more often, before Dr.'s began to risk their license to practice by doing so-
Yeah, sic the
on our enemies. Very destructive.
Also cheap and easy. What's that you say? They are
going after our enemies too, without our asking?
According to GlobalSecurity.org, the limiting part for the economic service life of the B-52 is the upper wing surface, which will supposedly last to between 32,500 and 37,500 hours. Using that as the limit, they anticipate that high-time airframes should start being retired in 2030, medium-time frames in 2040, and the required number of frames can no longer be sustained by 2044, though some of the lower-time frames could theoretically operate to 2050 or beyond. The last would theoretically be retired only 8 years short of the type flying for a century.
But hospital nurses should take a 10% wage cut and be thrilled to still have a job, as the hospital owes hundreds of millions.
Those must be different dollars.
some investor guy wrote:
Absolutely.
Here's the Conjure Perspective:
Look at a map of Europe. Do you see Prussia? No, you don't, it doesn't exist any more.
But, make no mistake, there is a Prussia. You just can't see it.
Fair Economist wrote:
I should have mentioned, NYSE listed. He is pretty sure it was related to the HAMP terminations. So it may be a blip and then remain at a high level.
hmm..maybe that austin guy read this in the morning....the breaking point...I think it worked out to 15% efffective tax rate.....
lawyerliz wrote:
Already did. EU going down!
Blackhalo wrote:
and there are those among us that think those people are idiots.
REPUBLICANS want to keep the tax cut (welfare) for the super rich (mostly bankers, a few baseball players as shills)
I like the way you think...can you quote Clausewitz too? I'll start:
"Although our intellect always longs for clarity and certainty, our nature often finds uncertainty fascinating."
"Only 21% Say U.S. Government Has Consent of the Governed ... Those with the Lowest Incomes are the Most Skeptical" | zero hedge
However, as long as we have food stamps and television, this is just sound and fury, signifying nothing.
Justaskin:
There's a world of difference between some bureaucrat spook following free-standing orders about taking out an isolated terrorist and something of that magnitude being ordered by a community organizer.
ohh I'm sure both parties want to keep it.....
republicans and democrats, same shit, two different piles.....
homedad43 wrote:
Not totally...as I said last thread, you could watch it IN THE SCHOOL BUILDING on national TV recently. Had to be a remote desktop program. These can certainly run over the net.....but it's very doubtful that the administrators would be doing it with the laptop out of the building, and I doubt the remote desktop program is "stealthy".
That REPUBLICAN tax policy sure did wonders for the economy.
I think it's fair to say a leg has never ever grown back.
But there are unexplainable cures.
Doesn't mean prayer did it, except to the extend the mind interacts
with the body, which it does. A lot.
Oxtail wrote:
Well damn! It really is different this time.
Nuke wrote:
As Will and Ariel Durant point out, revolutions are not initiated by the most downtrodden.
They are initiated by the scribes, the bureaucrats, the unemployed technical and commercial class.
Just saying.
That's a convenient thought terminating cliche, but the Democrats are likely to support getting rid of the capital gains tax welfare for the rich.
HomeGnome wrote:
Patriot Probes?
No, just magical thinking.
I wish prayer worked.
It doesn't.
homedad43 wrote:
And, if the CINC had said stand down the Predators?. Truman canned McArthur not so long ago. Bush 2 took us into Iraq, even when most of the military knew better.
mp wrote:
Broward is going to overthrow the government?
Good one, Cinco.
Have you offed your ducks, Stinky and Shitty; yet?
lawyerliz wrote:
Prayer works, just not the way you want it to work.
They are initiated by the scribes, the bureaucrats, the unemployed technical and commercial class.
Orwell said something similar. Obama better implement some stimulus program for used bookstores and coffee houses. Those trustafarians at Skidmore are starting to get restless. I don't think their current diet of marijuana and Xanax is going to be enough to keep them docile anymore.
Later. I give Mike Bloomberg credit for being more savvy than Rupert Murdoch. (As mayor, he's not supposed to tell Bloomberg.com what to report, though).
I believe he's stopped riding the subway like a commoner. One savvy asshole.
Vonbek777 wrote:
Conjure and I are fascinated by the processes involved in the resolution of tensions.
Vonbek777 wrote:
In the old days that was true except in time of war. I think they may be linked to homeland security now-
Freedom friskings, ahhhhhhhhh.
Rajesh wrote:
Yes! It starts with people like Broward!
Why? Because people like Broward are trained organizers.
They organize shit for a living. Why not people?
Coast Guard is funded from DHS. Also, most of the DoE funding does to military programs. The VA is not funded by the DoD (separate budget entity), nor are the CIA and NSA. All told, MIC spending should top 1 trillion this year.
I'm glad that guy is living today, otherwise he might have gotten
himself killed by Giordano Bruno, who I consider a science fiction writer
before his time.
http://www.asianews.it/news-en/Dalai-Lama-meets-Obama,-Beijing-warns-serious-consequences-on-bilateral-relations-17672.html
1 currency now -yogi wrote:
It either was a failed attempt to shrink government, or a successful attempt to have the government financed by the people who actually wanted to finance it, lenders.
Comrade Kristina wrote:
The situation with Iran has been there a long time. Who do you think was helping them while we were helping Iraq during he Iran/Iraq War? Greece is just an an opportunity or the moment.
cclt<
Just what are they going to do?
Sit out an auction or two?
Um, wait....
HomeGnome wrote:
Pissing in the wind. What else are they going to do with their dollars, and still maintain the peg?
FWIW - I have revised my forecast - Recession Q2 10. Housing is going to take another serious leg down and the economy will follow.
sm_landlord wrote:
Greece is a member of NATO, which the Russians detest, not only for winning the Cold War, but also for accepting former members of the old Soviet Bloc into NATO-
How many UST's and USD's does China hold?
The US spends what? a TRILLION a year on "defense".
Would it be worth it to THE PARTY to bomb the Americans for a TRILLION or TWO?
I think those odds are increasing daily...
mp wrote:
Because tech people have poor social skills and are more than a little bit weird by "normal person" standards. That's why we're all posting here, because we don't fit in. Apart from Liz, obviously.
Clausewitz is interesting because he took Kant's logic and applied it to war...both the tactical and strategic aspects... He is another one that I have to reread every so often because I realize I didn't correctly understand what he was trying to get at half the time. One day I must master reading German.
mp wrote:
Using it (them) once would mean an end to Israel; I don't think our promise to flatten Iran post facto would be acceptable to the Israelis-
So how can you tell it is working?
MASSIVE CRE Bomb followed by multiple muni bond bombers targeting the first responders.
lawyerliz wrote:
That is a secret I must not reveal.
HomeGnome wrote:
Currently, the Chinese don't appear to have that capability.
The published estimate (2009) is that they have fielded approximately 10 DF-31A missiles, which have the ability to strike anywhere within the US.
So, they don't yet have anywhere near what they'd need for a first strike capability. But, they're working on it.
oh,
Vonbek777 wrote:
As you know, Kantian dialectic is the key to understanding Clausewitz.
bearly wrote:
Don't the last of the FTHB deals close in June? Housing shouldn't collapse again until then. Or are you thinking that the cessation of the MBS purchases will happen and push it over?
Maybe the plan is to let their navy and subs visit San Francisco. Sit off the coast...little weapons mishap...
Russia is a far more sensible project for the Chinese.
Just tell people to start walking west.
mp<
I was speaking more about you know Hu dumping UST's.
You know, "money as a weapons system"
nova wrote:
Believe it or not,I think it's closer to 60. Wasn't the movie "The Strategic Air Command" made in '55
Strategic Air Command (1955)
and by this point the plane was declassified, a\in the air, etc. This movie featured Jimmy Stewart and the B-52
HomeGnome wrote:
Yes, well, "money as a weapon" is already an acknowledged part of Chinese military doctrine.
They've said so.
And what a chore it is, but worth it... I am still amazed at the chain of thought and discipline that came out of that age. We truly are attention deficient today.
brianinboise wrote:
We already have the B1 and the B2, just can't afford them-
lawyerliz wrote:
Just tell people to start walking west.
don't think they won't
and in very large numbers
HG a friend just stopped by,
those corn pops sound pretty dam good right about now 
As well as the US military doctrine.
That's why the US is giving cash money to the Taliban.
Then there are the pallets of cash (nice neat shrink wrapped bundles of Benjamins) that were flown into Iraq with no accounting....
sm_landlord wrote:
That in conjuction with the flood of HAMP cancellations that the lenders are moving hastily to the market will take the weak legs it has now out from under it.
I know the Air Force is still grimacing about that B2 mishap/crash in Guam.
shill<
I would have thought you'd have gone for the "Golden Grahms"...
Has anyone brought up the narrative that there will be a revolution and
will be in short supply?
Re: There is probably a third narrative too with the economy sliding back into recession.
36 million Americans now on food stamps, up 40% from 2 years ago, and a record 3 Million foreclosures predicted this year
But Wall St got $12 Trillion taxpayer money
Let The Good Times Roll!
Congress and regulatory agencies MIA.
Funny I don't remember seeing this on CNBS
Not sure what you are referring to specifically...but we paid the families in cash, when any civilian causalities took place to appease Islamic law.
HomeGnome wrote:
Not yet; still arguing with the wife abut it. Raised a Buddist, killing animals bothers her.
(scone - On this blog, I consider myself gender neutral. But in real life, I'm a sistah, sistah
)
mp wrote:
Try masturbation if your relationship is turning off the chicks-
km4 wrote:
Cinco-X wrote:
Raised a Buddist, killing animals bothers her.
Everything dies. Existence is suffering.
from Yves at Naked Capitalism:
Merkel hits out at banks over Greek deals Financial Times. Putting two and two together, if the Quatremer J’accuse is confirmed, the wrath of the EU may come down on Goldman. They may not be able to take any immediate action, but look how many believe that Bear was at least in part a victim of its failure to participate in the rescue of LTCM a decade before. If this report is confirmed, I will have to rethink my view that Goldman remained TBTF (more accurately, too interconnected to fail) no matter what the official pretenses were. Goldman may have just made itself Too Controversial To Save.
Vonbek777 wrote:
That line of thinking, combined with the general staff that Moltke created in Germany, created an incredible machine.
In fact, the US is fortunate that one US staff officer was invited to Germany to study their methods. He ended up writing Rainbow, the plan to defeat Germany and Japan on multiple fronts. His name escapes me at the moment, but Reagan awarded him the Freedom Medal in 1984(?).
Up to that time (1941), the US general staff had never seen such a methodology put to use before. Fascinating stuff.
Vonbek777 wrote:
I vote Sarah Palin as Madame Defarge - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Oh what a tangled web she weaves, when she practices on us to deceive...
Someday this war's gonna end...
shill wrote:
That was on Fox
Vonbek<
Is Taxpayer Money Funding the Taliban? - CBS Evening News - CBS News
Outsider wrote:
Well, I stand corrected. OTOH, it explains why you're so nice.
How the US sent $12bn in cash to Iraq. And watched it vanish |
World news |
The Guardian
U.S. sent pallets of cash to Baghdad
| Reuters
Billions over Baghdad | Politics | Vanity Fair
It gives me great comfort when FAZ is in the middle of the NYSE top 10 most active list. TRIPLE LEVERAGED BET.
Such a conservative crowd on Wall St. Next up 4X leveraged!
Well I mean the Canadians and the Dutch were paying the Taliban... makes sense we would start to... Lord what a way to fight a war...here let us pay you so you don't raid our camps while be put our heads in the sand.
Cinco, what is it with you and masturbation...write a book already.
I always thought the German General Staff greatest moment was the scheduling of trains for mobilization at the startof WWI. They were very good at logistics.
Vonbek777 wrote:
Until they find a new place to sell their goods, they won't be bombing the worlds largest consumer market.
If the number of short sales increase exponentially as I expect, many of the homeowners will be relieved of debt and get to live rent free for 6 months with a little bonus money thrown in for moving expenses. This will definitely increase their confidence to spend and consume again since many of these homeowners had minimal equity in their homes to begin with. So, we have all of the bad bank debt bought up and forgiven by Ben with no loss of equity for the banksters in fairytale land, and Ben transfers all their bad debt to government debt, ie, future generations of taxpayers. If Ben in his infinite wisdom forgives the credit makers and then the debtors, then what is the difference between this and printing money which also has no recourse? Not much since this forgiveness is so massive and widespread. Those that are hurt are the savers and the prudent, conservative young people that were able to see the Ponzi scheme and consequently abstained from obtaining the fraudulent and highly leveraged mortgages. The country as a whole will suffer for a long time except for the elites who created this mess, then bailed themselves out, then finally,as a last resort, bailed out those underwater to gain future profits at taxpayer expense. The dollar will have to ultimately decline because of all this and the standard of living for most will decline, but those at the top already know this and don't care. These manuevers are certainly not sustainable since Pauson and Ben bailed out China and the rest of the world. Do you think China told Paulson they would nuke him if he didn't transfer their 800 billion in subprime mortgages into short term US treasuries? BTW, I believe that the video about OneWest bank is the truth and nothing but the truth despite the denials of the Fed and also, I think Barry Ritholz also lampooned the video.
I thought Cheney had the cash ...what's the big deal?
"Men in great place are thrice servants; servants to the sovereign, servants to fame, and servants to business, so as they have no freedom, neither in their persons or in their action, nor in there time.... The rising unto place is laborious, and by pains men come to greater pains; and it is sometimes base, and by indignation men come to dignities.
Francis Bacon
Yes but how could the German General Staff study Clausewitz...his history with Napoleon, and serving in the Prussian Corp in Russia...and then repeat it. This is simplistic I know, the German offensive and the Napoleonic one were vastly different...but it always gets me.
Vonbek777 wrote:
The flying wing was always a marginally stable configuration-
BAGHDAD, Aug. 28 -- Iraq and China signed a $3 billion deal this week to develop a large Iraqi oil field, the first major commercial oil contract here with a foreign company since the 2003 U.S.-led invasion.
The 20-year agreement calls for the state-owned China National Petroleum Corp. to begin producing 25,000 barrels of oil a day and gradually increase the output to 125,000 a day, said Asim Jihad, a spokesman for the Iraqi Oil Ministry.
Iraq and China Sign $3 Billion Oil Contract - washingtonpost.com
Nice quote. fAILURE
Vonbek777 wrote:
It's hard to type with just one hand......
Good evening ladies and gents ... interesting development with the Fed today. They don't make a non-telegraphed move like that, even a small one, without some agenda. So let's meet tonights contestants for "Guess what Bennie and the Ink Jets are really up to!"
You need to replace the ducks with sheep.
The US war plan was designated "Rainbow 5."
It was written by Col. Albert Wedemeyer.
The US sent him to attend the German General Staff College on invitation of the Germans.
His principal qualification? He spoke German.
Iraq, Iran and the politics of oil: Crude diplomacy | The Economist
mp wrote:
There goes my hopes to be called to learn from the Swedish bikini team staff.
my cousin who is a GS sales "vp", just bought a 1300 sq foot condo in NY for 1.7 million dollars.
he also justgot his bonus. he then went to hawaii to go hiking for 4 days.
my dad said i should be happy for him that he's getting in on it even though goldman sachs was evil. I told my dad it would probably be better if he was a drug dealer since if "its going to happen anyway at least people get drugs out of it"
I have heard of Wedemeyer, but for the life of me, I can't remember the context right now. The Germans were very proud of what they had accomplished...remember reading that when Eddie Rickenbacker got invited over there, they showed him the entire works...how they were getting around the conditions in the armistice by training cooks and serving boys in tank gunnery.
hans wrote:
GS folks get drugs out of their arrangement too.
Vonbek777 wrote:
Hitler.
nothing grows where goldman goes
Even though this is completely off-topic, let me say that this couldn't have happened to a more deserving guy:
Wife of televangelist Benny Hinn files for divorce - Yahoo! News
Vonbek777 wrote:
I have some goats, and I swear the doe try to put the moves on me when she's in heat. I guess the wether (castrated male companion) doesn't do it for her. I've got to take her back and have her bred....
Vonbek777 wrote:
Ferris Bueller's day Off?
Naomi Klein explains it in Shock Doctrine that perverse incentives have been refined over a few decades now.
@Vonbek77
Understand that, after Goering was permitted to lose the initiative at Dunkirk, many red stripers on the German General Staff were convinced that the war was lost. It was merely a matter of time.
Udet knew it [edit] when Germany lost the Battle of Britain. He shot himself.
Funny I do not recall getting my share?, Oh wait Home Equity...ok now I get it.
Going to Russia was unavoidable if you were a Nazi. Their mission was to destroy the Bolsheviks. In NSDAP speak Bolshevik = Jew. It was a crusade.
my economic narrative:
BOOM
sell me some doom.
Euro labors mightily to retake $1.35 . . .
FAIL