fudge_hend wrote:

American + Logic + House prices = Does not compute

Divide by zero much?

Pigged from last thread

Re: Tibet, Taiwan etc.

The longer I'm married to a Chinese the more I realize how little I understand the concept of face. Logically I understand it of course but emotionally I don't as it isn't anywhere near as important in western society.

Face/loss of face plays a big part on the above issues. I think a blowup will come from a miscalculation due to bi cultural misunderstandings.

TAKE THE MARKET ON THAT!!!!

This will help. I don't think it will work as planned but that is what makes for posts here.

Feb. 18 (Bloomberg) -- Federal Reserve officials set a long-term goal to keep only U.S. government securities in their portfolio as they debated how and when to pull back on the most aggressive monetary policy in U.S. history.

Central bankers are planning to eventually remove $1.43 trillion of housing debt from the balance sheet after critics such as Stanford University economist John Taylor accused them of straying beyond monetary policy. Philadelphia Fed President Charles Plosser said yesterday that the Fed’s purchases of housing debt expose it to demands from politicians to support other industries.

mock turtle wrote:

and a state by state color coded map showing whos in deep voodoo, and who is not

I'd be dubious in regards to TX's funding. The commentariat has taken the position many times that TX is a numbers game that no one can verify independently.

yagij...yes

good point you make about numbers fudging

the npr story goes in to that a little,,,smoothing and other accounting games

we will see as the dominoes fall

btw here a direct link to the map (i want my ht damn-it

U.S. State Pension Funding Levels : NPR

Danny wrote:

derivatives

they are bets and the house changes the rules when they look like they are losing

mock,
posted earlier

State retirement benefit promises exceeded pension funds, study finds - washingtonpost.com

The Trillion Dollar Gap - The Pew Center on the States

Long bond showing some cracks in its armor. It it the second leg of the trifecta (equities, bonds, currency) ?

I think the big unknown is exactly how large are Lloyd Blankfein's balls. I mean, I seriously doubt that he can comfortably walk right now, but will (or are they) to a point where he can no longer enter a room?

from: IMF Gold Sale Announcement Causes Temporary Dip in Prices -- Seeking Alpha

For years, the threat of IMF gold sales has been hanging over the market and what happens with the 191 tonnes now offered up for sales could have a big impact on the gold price. While the sales are to be "phased in" over time, the IMF is still open to off-market sales and many believe that an Asian central bank such as China would be a willing buyer at lower prices.

Most worthy read here.

How Global Fiat Money Dies

Rob Dawg wrote:

Haven't we heard in public many times that the credit is expiring?

I'm currently gambling that the credit will expire, with a flurry of activity in April followed by a hollow thud. (The house in Oregon goes on the market next week.) I'm thinking the credits will expire, but interest rates will "officially" stay down. But when the government stops buying so much mortgage paper, interest rates will go up a bit, which usually translates to a short-term flurry of activity. And so it goes on, in fits and starts. It's like galvanizing a dead frog.

from: Gold Hype Should Return -- Seeking Alpha

I believe, however, that two probable events will change gold’s role as an asset and provide valuable buying opportunities.
...
The first is when the Federal Reserve raises interest rates. On a very mechanical level, this will appreciate the dollar and decrease the price of gold, which should provide a good buying opportunity.
... - - -
The second event is a sovereign default/bailout in Greece. In April and May, Greece will need to refinance roughly 18 billion Euros of bonds. Its government will struggle through this process and it is likely that Greece will either default or be bailed-out by the European Union.
...
This will have a two-pronged effect on gold. First, it will make investors more risk adverse to sovereign debt and they should turn to gold for its use as a hedge against sovereign risk. Second, it will usher in a major global market correction as investors realize that the perils of the financial crisis have not disappeared. In this scenario, gold’s price should act like it did last winter; as markets worldwide tumbled, gold appreciated roughly 15%.

Unconfirmed but being reported on some of the local stations

The pilot of the plane set his house on fire prior to taking off and flying into the office building...Got stress?

Also, a bomb threat on a commercial flight is being investigated right now as well. People are at the breaking point now...Where is Conjure and his clock?

Google map 30.384946,-97.743758

Eye witnesses says engine was full throttle and pilot showed some level of control...

CK, something must in the air lately. Even I am feeling it. Sitting around with nothing to do doesn't help.

mad max keiser on the russia propaganda channel

YouTube -

Now multiply your sitting at home by ten million...Idle hands and all that jazz...

is that brimstone I smell ? oh, nevermind, just coming closer.

Bob Dobbs wrote
"At my establishment, many 60-percent-time jobs are eligible for health insurance. They're snapped up despite the low pay,"

i hear ya... i worked a very dangerous job (attacked by inmate with home made knife for example) for low pay (people here might laugh at me)

because i ha d family...(esp children)... and got excellent medical coverage

over the years i paid about 5% of my pay to medical premium (not counting retirement deductions)

and co pays at the doctors door (which slowly climbed over the years)

essentially we had single payer...could choose from several plans hat gave us access to pretty damn near any doc or hosp we wanted

the plan is still viable cause the state had huge negotiating power

scone wrote:

Is that a mp's dog, or human partner, or house elf, or what?

Yes.

some investor guy wrote:

Can we insert a picture of a dead cat on the chart at that smaller second peak to the right?

And a bigger blue bar. Technically I'm fully expecting NBER to insert a "recovery" but let's be honest. This is the second leg down. All that's left to argue about is whether it will be bigger or smaller than the first. IMO if it is bigger it will at least be the last. If it is smaller then we'll have to see.

CK, something must in the air lately. Even I am feeling it. Sitting around with nothing to do doesn't help.

My brother in law called me earlier, ( we are best friends also ) he is one of the 10 million strong. He was telling me the walls are closing in on him and he is very depressed. Not much I can do other than to just talk to him, I have loaned him money
( that he has not paid back but is aware of it, but I do not press the issue like I said he is a good friend) I look everyday for a job for him on the net, but it is slim pickings out there.

This is one individual, many more like him at home in the same state of mind just waiting to blow a fuse.

scone wrote:

I never got the Conjure backstory. Is that a mp's dog, or human partner, or house elf, or what?

It's some ancient and medieval bag of spells and magicks that has somehow achieved sentience on its own over the centuries and has predictive powers, or at least Strong Views. Or at least that's how I remember it.

scone wrote:

I never got the Conjure backstory. Is that a mp's dog, or human partner, or house elf, or what?

Think of Cousin Itt with bear fangs and a penchant for Macanudos, single malt scotch and Scrooge McDuck cartoons...

And we are just bits of crud floating in the fluid of the cat brain's jar. That explains everything.

• Smokes cigars
• Prefers scotch
• Eats dog testicles
• Prefers using electricity when interrogating bankers
• Distinctive yet pleasant natural musk, with earthy hints

It's a cycle logical recession.

Oh yeah, and weapon of choice is a rusty razor...

No magik circles and full moons? Hmm...economics is a dark and dirty work, so maybe magik circles and no moon. For some reason I imagine a bloke with a half crazed look in his eyes waiting for the bull's horns to appear over the hill. Chanting and a blackberry sacrifice followed by the 'bones' being drawn from the bag.

Haven't we heard in public many times that the credit is expiring?

Very funny.

EXpiring and EXtension - The govt. keeps getting these 2 words confused.

It could be that the nature of the word ex-tension is mistaken as a relief from tension. And that's what they're aiming for. Relief from tension. Hence, ex-tension.

ResistanceIsFeudal wrote:

Idle hands being the devil's tools and all...

Idle shotguns are also the devil's tools.

ResistanceIsFeudal wrote:

Idle hands being the devil's tools and all...

Yeah, speaking of devil's tools, what about all the unemployed lawyers?

Jonathan wrote:

scone, there's a small chance we're just a holographic projection inside a giant sphere.

I like that image in Men In Black, where the galaxy is just a marble-sized plaything in someone else's reality.

I got incredibly lucky.

1. price: PITI less then 25% DTI, $/sqft and rental parity
2. location (good neighborhood, short commute, close to services)
3. lot size
4. condition of structure

Condition 1. was the hardest, particularly in the neighborhoods I was looking in. The house had to be affordable without tapping cash reserves even if I go on UE. The FTHB credit was nice but I didn't need it. The biggest decision was whether to pay cash or go 20% down. I decided I'd rather have that 80% remaining available and enjoy the mort ins tax break for a bit. I can always pay it off later if I change my mind.

The local landlords sort of forced my hand. What pushed me over the edge was wanting secure, enclosed off street parking and a place for my golden retreiver. A rental here that has those options is priced at 140% my piti. In fact, at 20% down my monthly mortgage payment will be less then a decent 1 brd apt in this neighborhood.

Don't forget many of these new unemployed folk aren't exactly slackers... many angry people with advanced degrees, engineering or programming backgrounds, etc are just now having their pretty view of the world being a meritocracy crapped on by the FIRE establishment (as if house-flippers didn't already make them question reality). Idle hands being the devil's tools and all...

Yup, unfortunately my brother inlaw was in the Pool business, ran his own business, very lucrative for years upon years. But with this downfall, the phone is just not ring. Sure you can spend a ton of money making fliers and advertising ( the loan I gave him ) but still the phone just does not ring. Years past at this time he would have 50 to 60 jobs plus lined up...this year 2.

People are not spending the money like they used to, sure we can post charts and make it look really good in the land of make believe, but in the real world the phone is just not ringing.

sm_landlord wrote:

Like this?
Broad New Hacking Attack Detected - WSJ.com

All government and commercial computers need to be running OpenBSD or something similarly secure. Locked down, so software can be installed through browsers.

The giant clusterf*ck of shitty programming vulnerabilities commonly known as Windows should be banned. That goes for a heck of a lot of client software also, Adobe Acrobat Reader being one of the worst for programming holes.

sm_landlord wrote:
Like this?
Broad New Hacking Attack Detected - WSJ.com
Yes. To put it in more politically incorrect terms, there were a ton of smart, highly educated and motivated people who were temporarily directed to put their brains to use in projects that supported establishment goals, often under protest, that now are no longer so constrained. A lot of bright, motivated people who've just realized most of their reality has been a con game are going to strike back at the system that, intentionally or not, did this to them.

shill:

In poor taste, I would call that a "sink or swim" business...

But seriously, how is he managing? I imagine he is not eligible for UE comp.

Not hard to find a sympathetic jury, I would guess.

They don't get to a jury. What happens is a lawyer finds some crippled guy and then hops onto google earth and google street view. Randomly chooses a business. If the map looks like they have turn handle doors or a ramp or stairs or anything even remotely off, the lawyer writes a letter and signs it as the disabled guy saying "Your doorhandle is off, thanks." Then immediately files suit. The law allows for attorney's fees to be recovered. Then the attorney offers to settle for 4k. The business owner looks at the facts and realizes he is in fact in the right, but proving that in court will cost him 40k+, so he buckles and pays the 4k. Attorney and disabled dude move on to the next business. It doesn't matter whether the business is compliant or not; proving that they're compliant in court costs so much that it's easier to just settle and hope nobody else hits you up on google earth.

there were a ton of smart, highly educated and motivated people who were temporarily directed to put their brains to use in projects that supported establishment goals, often under protest, that now are no longer so constrained

You make sitting on my ass, eating almonds, lifting weights, and playing D&D with my unemployed buddies in their darkened, unpowered hovel sound downright romantic.

Can't decide if the long bond move is adjustment ahead of the fed MBS program ending or a tantrum to encourage the spineless agency into continuing. I guess it hardly matters - Extend it will be.

Eric wrote:

Don't confuse "less targeted" with "secure".

OpenBSD is great for building firewalls. It's actually pretty darn good, compared to the competition.

Deflationary Jane wrote:

I was looking in. The house had to be affordable without tapping cash reserves even if I go on UE. The FTHB credit was nice but I didn't need it.

Quite a rare buyer. I can't help but wonder what percent of potential buyers have 20% down at this time.

Outsider, that's why I'm looking for a job where my law degree augments rather than defines the career.

lawyer in San Luis Obisbo made a mint off that very same thing....and videos proved that the handicapped person never came to business establishment..

greed likes to sleep with the devil...

Hoopajoops LTD wrote:

Outsider, that's why I'm looking for a job where my law degree augments rather than defines the career.

How about suing spammers? You could think of it as a public service.

Hoops it doesn't sound like you are searching for a job as much as 'experiences'...join the navy, do a two year stint. See the world. You never know...

sm_landlord wrote:

OpenBSD is great for building firewalls.

There is a trade off between security and convenience.

CaptainMorgan wrote:

I can't help but wonder what percent of potential buyers have 20% down at this time

Where I do my purchasing buyers all have 100% down, cash. Where the rubber meets the housing market road. Truly bare knuckles capitalism.

scone wrote:

Is that a mp's dog, or human partner, or house elf, or what?

Do not taunt Conjure Bag.

Hoops it doesn't sound like you are searching for a job as much as 'experiences'...join the navy, do a two year stint. See the world. You never know... Wink

Yup if I was 20 years younger and had nothing going on, I would join the Air force and get the hell out of dodge.

Jane, where do you live?

Quite a rare buyer. I can't help but wonder what percent of potential buyers have 20% down at this time.

You know what's funny? If we simply required 20% down, a lot more buyers would soon have it.

Danny wrote:

If we simply required 20% down, a lot more buyers would soon have it

That's exactly right. Price discovery shock, again.

scone wrote:

Eating leads to composting

Carnivore poop is not good compost.

Interesting...I am vaguely familiar with the Bahamut legend, haven't done a ton of research on it...will have to dig deeper. Bahamut and Leviathan always seemed a yin/yang relationship in the making...

Blinking-contest-ahead-of-OpEx-day

Unconfirmed but officials saying now he may have been "disgruntled" with the IRS...

Lawyerliz, your erratic linebreaks give your posts the illusion of poetry.

Very ferocious house elf

he has a lot of hair

I think

But mp has never said.

Danny wrote:

If we simply required 20% down, a lot more buyers would soon have it.

My 20% down from 2006 became 50% by 2009. May be a cash buyer in 2011.

Now, hoops. Haven't you ever watched Erin Brockovich? The Firm?

Danny wrote:

If we simply required 20% down, a lot more buyers would soon have it.

One more thing where rate of change matters.

If that was enacted overnight it would be disastrous, but if slowly increased over several years might turn out fine and would encourage home buying in the shorter term.

Sure you can spend a ton of money making fliers and advertising ( the loan I gave him ) but still the phone just does not ring.

Locally there is a small furniture store that I've followed since the downturn began. I followed them since for their size they have advertised more than anyone I've ever seen and was curious how they were riding out the 'V-recovery'. They spent a bundle on over the air tv, cable, large print ads in just about any publication, and radio (including onsite), flyers etc. This week they ran another large ad in the newspaper - liquidation.

Bob Dobbs wrote:

the legal system is a sausage factory making product you hope you never have to eat

The most constructive way to look at it is that litigation is punishment for people who can't resolve their problems themselves. All the participants get punished all the way along. The problems get resolved eventually. Correct answers are at best a third tier concern.

I like it pavel. Right up my ally. Thank you for sharing.

OT: It had crossed my mind, that adding a camera to Apple iPad, might have a slightly 'panopticon' whiff to it.

But sadly, life imitates my paranoid imagination...

School used student laptop webcams to spy on them at school and home Boing Boing

laptops issued to high-school students in the well-heeled Philly suburb have webcams that can be covertly activated by the schools' administrators, who have used this facility to spy on students and even their families. The issue came to light when the Robbins's child was disciplined for "improper behavior in his home" and the Vice Principal used a photo taken by the webcam as evidence.

Holy crap!

shill wrote:

And some pretty custom work for sure, high end, but the demand is not there.

Ok, big difference.

I know many people did pools with stock options and bonuses during the tech boom, and can only imagine how much went on in the bubble states during the housing boom with refis and HELOCs.

FIL did a $80k pool around 2006, but he is loose with money in general and pretty well off.

I see that Barry Ritholz is complaining that he has bought new equipment for his blog w/o an increase in traffic and that his book didn't really make a profit. I thought Ritholz and Shedlock were doing volunteer work for us or maybe volunteering to work for minimum wage. Maybe Barry should have gone to Washington when Congress came a calling and testified for free, instead of bailing out. Ha,ha,ha,ha

This week they ran another large ad in the newspaper - liquidation.

Furniture place for sure, I often wonder how business like Mattress Giant and the like are still functioning.

shill wrote:

Furniture place for sure

They eternally seem to be going out of business, if 'giant furniture store closing down' sales are an economic indicator we've been in recession since 1994
~splat

Even though Washington had a poor grasp of the necessity for house prices to decline further, the efforts to brake the decline were not all useless.

Slowing the decline helped to avert a panic over-reaction. People have had more time to adjust mentally, and panic is reduced. Now we can continue to adjust (downward) with less fear and collapse than otherwise.

Part of the need in a recession is for people to be able to sell and move to new job locations. The various stimulus/fed/etc. helped lubricate the market, and actually have helped this necessary mobility to work a little better.

I think the overall picture, fed/housing/etc, is about as well as can be, and it is remarkable that this middle-way is near the best possible.

Instead of simply having useless efforts that cause more harm than good, like the popular rhetoric of certain interests, we have more like something akin to an air-bag in a wreck. Still a wreck, but the air-bag was good to have.

From the manifesto:

The intent of this exercise and our efforts was to bring about a much-needed re-evaluation of the laws that allow the monsters of organized religion to make such a mockery of people who earn an honest living. However, this is where I learned that there are two “interpretations” for every law; one for the very rich, and one for the rest of us… Oh, and the monsters are the very ones making and enforcing the laws; the inquisition is still alive and well today in this country.

That little lesson in patriotism cost me $40,000+, 10 years of my life, and set my retirement plans back to 0. It made me realize for the first time that I live in a country with an ideology that is based on a total and complete lie. It also made me realize, not only how naive I had been, but also the incredible stupidity of the American public; that they buy, hook, line, and sinker, the crap about their “freedom”… and that they continue to do so with eyes closed in the face of overwhelming evidence and all that keeps happening in front of them.

Thanks, Vonbek777.

sdtfs wrote:

home composting

Yes. My recollection was that Hoops was doing gardening and soil amendments when he first started having a lot of time on his hands.

It seems like there are lots of struggling business that is resorting to a big increase in advertising. Somebody mentioned the capitol one ads.

I see a huge push by Radio Shack and can't help but think they are doomed.

CaptainMorgan wrote:

I see a huge push by Radio Shack and can't help but think they are doomed.

I'd never write off Radio Shack Their bizzare business model seems to work....

Even CEO Can't Figure Out How RadioShack Still In Business | The Onion - America's Finest News Source 

~splat

Wow, CK, just read the whole thing...wonder how this will play out in the press.

Note to self, stop posting on forum...keep opinions to self, don't buy household chemicals. Keep low profile.

Vonbek777 wrote:

wonder how this will play out in the press.

Hopefully, exactly as it should: some wingnut tax-evader went over the edge.

albrt wrote:

Yes.

A little Walden+ a little Candide= a little piece of mind.

Eric-

Seems to me it's a bit more complicated than that....there is more to that then just not paying taxes.

Ciao
MS

Vonbek777 wrote:

wonder how this will play out in the press.

The trick to not getting called a crack pot is to not say things that sound like a crack pot said them.

I won't pick the whole thing apart, but Austin has always had a steady flow people wanting to move there, and many of the UT graduates not wanting to leave after graduation. Keeps wages low. I know several engineers who would have loved to move down there from the DFW area, and were not impressed with salary there, and had a hard time making it in to companies due to the large number of graduates in the area. Can't imagine it's any better now.

eric,

I believe the guy has many valid points that are argued here consistently....he just chose action instead of words....

I hope it stirs sheeple to get out and start the disassembly of corporate governments....I see no wingnut....I see hopelessness....rage against the machine

cant blame this on the muslims....or terrorists...

Comrade Kristina wrote:

The capitalist creed: From each according to his gullibility, to each according to his greed

I like how Tony Montana put it: "You know what capitalism is: gettin' fucked!"

A link from the Big Picture. A long read, but worth the effort. Details seven scams perpetrated by the investment banks.

“A year and a half after they were minutes away from bankruptcy, how were these a**holes not only back on their feet again, but hauling in bonuses at the same rate they were during the bubble?”

Wall Street's Bailout Hustle : Rolling Stone

Comrade Kristina wrote:

And so it begins...People are snapping at an alarming rate

Don't worry, it's going to be okay.

We're in a recovery now.

That "capitalist creed" thing could catch on.

scone wrote:

IIRC they used to carry tubes and transistors, where else are you going to get that outside mail order?

I take it you don't have a Frys in your area. They are usually bigger and better stocked than Radio Shack ever was in that area, and have lots of other stuff as well.

I think Frys ate Radio Shacks lunch in many areas, and can hold there own in certain areas against Best Buy.

all of the cables and add cell phone add ons are huge markup, so maybe that is how they survive

.wonder how this will play out in the press.

BBC News - Texas office building hit by small plane --reassurance that it's not "terrorism." There was another small plane crash in Menlo Park, CA, --heavy fog. Plane crashed into an area w/houses, but doesn't seem to have injured anyone on the ground, doesn't seem to have been intentional. There actually seem to be a fairly high number of small plane crashes in the US.

We call them "Talibankers"...

What is pathetic is the MSM is still babbling about possible theories. I guess they haven't found his manifesto yet, which took about 5 minutes on google to come up with.

Eric-

In a society that allows the word "loss" in the public vernacular I'm sure I would also see it as simplistic as you......we live in a different time and place. That (if it achieves widespread viewing) is gong to strike a chord with alot of people...rightly or wrongly.

Sure he's a terrorist in a black and white world....you should think about who gets to brand anyone with that label. As I said a few days ago.....I don't condone violence but I certainly understand it (as the case with the JPM office getting bombed).

Ciao
MS

Oh, they finally found it and are now reading it on air...

MS wrote:

(as the case with the JPM office getting bombed).

It's all fun and games until innocent women and children get hurt or killed.

Set off enough bombs and somebody will die eventually, often times its the bomb makers themselves.

These guys should really hire me to help spruce up their suicide manifestos before flying into buildings or whatever. I could make this so much more punchy.

Rob Dawg wrote:

Seriously, for good and ill our kids are not as fragile nor as unaware of history as we assume. The point is to open doors not choose the doors.

I am struggling with this point. I grew up in a heavily censored home, except once I had my library card, they let me choose anything I wanted to read...no bars. This was good and bad...I exposed myself to some ideas at a young age that I did not have the context or maturity to fully understand. I want my kids to be exposed to many ideas, even contradictory ideas...but I am trying to come to terms with unlimited information access. I guess I want open doors but some doors I want to make hard to get into. This of course just means they will try the harder I suppose.

I can see that becoming a growth industry Hoops.

CK,

The local press found it first, I just read the whole thing, he sounds like folks I read on blogs all day, scary.

This paragraph haunts me because I see stuff like it all the time on city data Austin:

By this time, I’m thinking that it might be good for a change. Bye to California, I’ll try Austin for a while. So I moved, only to find out that this is a place with a highly inflated sense of self-importance and where damn little real engineering work is done. I’ve never experienced such a hard time finding work. The rates are 1/3 of what I was earning before the crash, because pay rates here are fixed by the three or four large companies in the area who are in collusion to drive down prices and wages… and this happens because the justice department is all on the take and doesn’t give a fuck about serving anyone or anything but themselves and their rich buddies.

Later, he mentions a wife. He set his house on fire before getting in the plane, I hope they find the wife alive.

Hotel RevPAR Off 6.9%

Which is worse - bankers or terrorists wrote:

The capitalist creed: From each according to his gullibility, to each according to his greed

I suppose. But why is this a sudden shock to anyone ? It's not as though we haven't had a dozen or so generations to get the memo. Buyer beware isn't a new paradigm that required some massive government program to identify its existence.

woe-is-me, the time honored battle cry of the senseless.

YouTube - Ron Paul before the Iraq war. Wise man see. Fools Rush in. I 

maybe he's so straightforward and honest, people are scared of him....I have a video of him in 1990 on fannie bailout was going to happen....

Denninger on the plane crash in Austin, Texas

This Is How It Begins (Wanton Violence) - The Market Ticker

Thee "note" supposedly left by the pilot of the plane -

Well Mr. Big Brother IRS man... take my pound of flesh and sleep well. 

(Link still works .... for now)

As they say .... developing ......

amazing how terrorists running up oil are considered bonus material..more supply = go high