Stock futures recently made a sharp, downward move in the wake of the latest dose of economic data. Specifically, weekly jobless claims for the week ended Feb. 13 totaled 473,000, up 31,000 from the previous week and worse than the 438,000 claims that had been widely forecast. Continuing claims came in at 4.56 million, which is unchanged from the previous week and a bit worse than the 4.50 million continuing claims that many had come to expect. Separately, the Producer Price Index for January made a 1.4% month-over-month spike, which is sharper than the 0.8% increase that had been expected. It also marks an acceleration from the 0.4% monthly increase that was registered in December. Excluding food and energy, producer prices increased 0.3% month-over-month, which is a more rapid clip than the 0.1% monthly increase that had been expected. The core measure of producer prices for December was flat.
As a young, educated job seeker, it's as if the bottom three rungs of the career ladder have been sawed off. There is simply nowhere in this economy to get a good hold of anything.
Ah, time to break out the misery index. Everything old is new again!! How long will Ben be able to keep rates at 0%; Bond vigilantes first? What is the inflation rate for other currencies?
As a young, educated job seeker, it's as if the bottom three rungs of the career ladder have been sawed off. There is simply nowhere in this economy to get a good hold of anything.
You're an atty in CA. You must be able to sue somebody over this.
Ben,
We both know this isn't going to happen.
* DHS/ TSA is too busy swabbing hands for explosives residue down at the airport.
* Bovine Americans aren't going to pick crops or do heavy physical labor.
If we deported the Illegals that would free up how many jobs for Americans?
Be careful what you wish for. Those illegals would vacate a lot of housing units, probably leave a lot of cars behind. Rents and home prices in CA would drop.
On a more positive note, there would be less traffic.
The last JOLTS report that CR posted had an interesting tit bit. The layoffs which had been decreasing picked up in December. Also the number of people quitting dropped dramatically. Next months report will be interesting to see if the trend continues.
To me the interesting thing was that initial claims were higher than historic levels while the number of layoffs had returned to more or less their historic level. Suggesting to me that the problem had transitioned from layoffs to the absence of new job growth- i.e people in previous periods who were laid off were not finding substitute employment.
Got to start some where and the term Illegal works the best. Hard to deport legal workers in comparison. More like not renew or accept new ones. Time to get selfish for a while.
LBD, illegals represent labor efficiency gains for industry, lowering costs. While it would open some jobs, I wonder how many businesses we have which are currently viable and competitive with our slave-wage international trading partners would have to shutter without the pressure valve of illegal labor to prop them up. Illegal immigrants are essentially a free subsidy for many kinds of business, especially construction and AG.
Besides, sabotaging labor efficiency to create jobs can be accomplished by deporting all illegals or by, I dunno, outlawing the use of automated robotics in some manufacturing plants, forcing groundskeepers to use manual labor rather than motorized vehicles to cart landscaping equipment around public lands and parks... I wonder whether that would be good or bad for our economy, in the long run.
Now that this has been going on awhile I think I understand it a little better. Part of the problem is we are now members of the video age. No patience and we expect answers in minutes. Our financial crisis, however, is more like War and Peace to get through, rather than Green Eggs and Ham. And why wouldn't it drag on like this? Our central bank has been helicoptering money at our deleveraging implosion like no other time in history. And now we want a second round of massive stimulus, to be paid for by the now and future taxpayer....
Well, with the very inconsistent results achieved so far by the treasury and our leaders, I am trying to see what happens when the stimulus is withdrawn and interest rates rise. Many will eschew risk, and as liquidity dries up (yeah, I know about bank lending already), then it seems to me there will be NO driver for commerce. Yet, the drama must play out, and the government must stop what they've been doing.
Already this year the deficit is 8.8% higher than last year. You cannot pretend there is not a monster under the bed. There is...
CR, these states haven't gotten your memo about construction being dead for the foreseeable future:
CA -13,535 Fewer layoffs in the construction industry.
PA -9,491 Fewer layoffs in the construction, trade, and service industries.
FL -3,587 Fewer layoffs in the construction, trade, service, and manufacturing industries, and agriculture.
IL -1,815 Fewer layoffs in the construction, trade, and manufacturing industries.
WI -1,412 Fewer layoffs in the construction, trade, public administration, and manufacturing industries.
NC -1,408 Fewer layoffs in the construction, service, and apparel industries.
(maybe there's no one left to layoff. I know a few small builders here in NC who are down to the owners and 1 or 2 staff. Everyone else has gotten the axe)
And it's nice to see that our auto and manufacturing recovery is bearing fruit for the workers. Oh, wait a minute.
STATES WITH AN INCREASE OF MORE THAN 1,000
State Change State Supplied Comment
MI +1,724 Layoffs in the automobile industry.
IA +2,014 Layoffs in the manufacturing industry.
The jobs situation is worse than ever too. Every dollar we send abroad to fund our CONsumption based trade deficit makes us poorer and less able to create jobs.
Of course, the swindlers on Wall St. get wealthy the debt based impoverishment of our nation.
The democratic party, if it were principled, should be the party rallying for the end of our illegal immigrant slave labor racket. Instead, they have betrayed a long-time cornerstone of their base, wage earners and labor unions.
GOD DAMNIT HOOCOODANODE WHY ARE YOU PAUSING AND PAUSING AND PAUSING AND LAGGING WHEN I AM TRYING TO TYPE IT IS REALLY FUCKING UP MY COMPOSITION
We have to go backwards to catch up with the contraction and provide jobs to baseline. To continue free services to illegals and UE benefits does nothing but extend and pretend. Reality sucks, Flat out. Many Americans need to find out what real work is like. Party is over.
The jobs situation is worse than ever too. Every dollar we send abroad to fund our CONsumption based trade deficit makes us poorer and less able to create jobs
I'm guessing you're an advocate of energy independence? Now seems like a good time. It you're going to blow lots of govt money on stimulus, go for conservation, wind, solar, etc.
Since last August, I've been tracking claims, CONtinuing claims, extended benefits and emergency benefits. For a brief period late last year, it looked like the aggregates were peaking. No more though. We've been busting through to new highs lately.
The situation is likely worse than the numbers bear out as it is being reported that millions have now used up their extended and emergency unemployment benefits.
Bad credit ruined our eCONomy. And the Fed is responsible.
For a 'serviced-based' economy; why not employ people to actually perform a 'service'? Who likes going through those automated telephone menus and never reach a real live person (and maybe if you do, they aren't in the USA)? How is it that we can't have enough RNs in hospitals, enough LPNs or even primary care physicians?
When I rarely go to a shopping mall (I live rurally), is there anyone around that knows the merchandise and can assist me? Does everyone need to a freaking BA to be a secretary? Is it more efficient for a research engineer and its entire lab to answer their own phones, type up their own letters and documents, schedule their own travel, etc.- is that a productive use of their time?
They will just export the jobs to other shores! So without stopping offshoring of jobs, just getting rid of H1-Bs does not work. For example WFC do not hire H1-Bs, at least openly. But they have a IT center in Hyderabad that employs hundreds.
Also some of them, not very many, are very qualified. Over the weekend ran into an Indian man in his early 30's, Phd in EE from UC Boulder, works for Cisco; his work currently is about optimizing placement of components on boards to maximize radiation shielding. Also his wife is an Indian woman, MD, works as a pediatric specialist in a rural hospital, where our own homegrown doctors will not go. I am not sure we gain by deporting the likes of them. Do you? If it were up to me , I would given them green card straight out of schools/residency.
Wisdom Speaker checking in after a few weeks of frantic real-world activity...
Just wanted to comment that the weekly UE claims data, when plotted properly -- without the seasonal adjustment and with the horizontal axis representing "week in the year" so one can do a visual seasonal adjustment while seeing how each year compares to the next -- doesn't show nearly the same sort of unexpected variation (one is tempted to say "noise") as the seasonally adjusted data.
The actual 2010 claims are clearly not in recovery territory and clearly not as bad as last year - see Investing for Sustainable Gains for a plot (coming shortly).
Every season Yuma-area harvesting and produce-packing companies worry whether they will have enough hands to harvest their valuable crops of fruits and vegetables.
...
One way these employers have been getting those "hands" is through the H-2A temporary agricultural worker program, which allows them to bring foreign workers in from Mexico to harvest their fields
LBD, the "illegal immigrants use up our free services!" line is bunk. They contribute far more in the form of labor than they take.
The real destruction they cause is their insidious union-busting ability among the skilled laborers. Electricians, plumbers, construction workers, agricultural workers, all used to be union strongholds. Their bargaining position has been weakened so thoroughly by an infinite supply of mexican peasant labor that they are now lucky to receive the wages of a mexican peasant.
The democratic party used to be a party of honest labor, the working stiff, of unions, and of solidarity among the blue collar crowd. They betrayed the backbone of america they used to represent by supporting the non-enforcement of illegal immigration laws against employers and by supporting NAFTA and trade policies with China.
All these tea party folks should be democrats, but they're not; the only party that purports to represent their interests are the Republicans. But the repubs are and always have been a party of the elite, the wealthy, the privileged. This fit is bad, the working stiffs are realizing that they've been betrayed by both sides of the aisle, and are lashing out.
Man my brain is fuzzy this morning, I'm not feeling like I'm writing very well.
some investor guy writes:
I'm guessing you're an advocate of energy independence? Now seems like a good time. It you're going to blow lots of govt money on stimulus, go for conservation, wind, solar, etc.
Do you? If it were up to me , I would given them green card straight out of schools/residency.
Flooding the market with foreign labor, even skilled, educated labor, increases supply, lowering compensation and opportunity for native born, equally qualified labor, and reduces the incentives for domestic talent to seek that training or qualification. Anecdotal evidence is less than compelling to me.
Bruce in Tennessee wrote:
Our financial crisis, however, is more like War and Peace to get through, rather than Green Eggs and Ham.
"There’s nothing all that remarkable about the future ahead of us; it’s simply that the unparalleled abundance that our civilization bought by burning through half a billion years of stored sunlight in three short centuries has left most people in the industrial world clueless about the basic realities of human life in more ordinary times.
It’s this cluelessness that underlies so many enthusiastic discussions of a green future full of high technology and relative material abundance. Those discussions also rely on one of the dogmas of the modern religion of progress, the article of faith that the accumulation of technical knowledge was what gave the industrial world its three centuries of unparalleled wealth; since technical knowledge is still accumulating, the belief goes, we may expect more of the same in the future."
--Greer
Oregon here. from what i hear, highschool kids used to pick crops, do the haying, etc in summer. seems that stopped with child labor laws. not sure of the mechanism. i hear older folk lamenting the days that teenagers could earn some $ and blow off steam doing that hard work.
All this talk about deportation of H1B's, etc. is never going to happen. When has any of the parties advocated that? It hasn't been for like 20 years, if ever.
Lots of unions need busted. They are part of the problem, look deep into the UAW and GM. Also look at run away government expenses as Unions have grown in Government labor. Things are out of balance every where. Illegals are part of the problem. Americans think they are to good for the jobs their fore fathers did are part of the problem. On and on. Contraction is going back to what worked mixed with the good things we have learned. Same process as running a race car.
.......US citizens down on their knees doing ANY kind of work? Give me a break. You're in dreamland. When I ran work crews (in the late 90s) you couldn't even kidnap US borns to work - they'd rather get drunk, high, or be stupid and stay at home 5-days a week. Now it's probably worse with prolonged UE.
Does an extra $10.00 a day sound like a big raise?
How would you like to have to pick an extra 1000 pounds of tomatoes to get it?
That's what the tomato pickers in Florida were striking for last year. A penny-a-pound raise.
As long as there is high unemployment, it's a buyers' market. Recessions both shake out the small fry competition and make the laborers powerless.
"Many plan sponsors hoped that by investing in the stock market they would make higher-than-expected returns, thereby reducing the need to contribute so much," she says. And that happened in the 1980s and 1990s. But it didn't last.
"There is a downside to volatility and we're now experiencing it with a vengeance," she says.
So what will happen?
Kirkegaard says the pressure on companies to increase contributions will most likely lead companies to lay off more people than they otherwise would have.
The good news for workers with corporate defined-benefit plans is that their plans are partially insured by the federal government through the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corp. In 2008, there were 44 million Americans who were either actively working or retired with a private sector defined-benefit pension plan from a company, according to the PBGC. These plans pay out a fixed amount of money each month until you die.
But no such protections exist for the roughly 20 million state and government workers or for average investors with 401(k) or IRA plans.
The study also found that some state and local government pension funds are drastically underfunded — a crisis that looms large because they support some of the oldest work forces in the nation. A case in point is the Indian State Teachers Retirement Fund, which had a funding ratio of 43.4 percent in 2006, or the Illinois State Employees Retirement System, which had a funding radio of 52.2 percent for the same year. Ideally, this figure should be closer to 100 percent, Kirkegaard says.
I live in the land of oranges, each tree has about 1,000 golden balls hanging from it's branches and sometimes i'll watch the pickers at work, armed with a ladder and a sack to stick their bounty in. Each sack holds around 40 pounds and once it's full they go dump it into large plastic square boxes, and start over again. Figure you'll do this 50 times in a day for pay of around $50.
Man, I must have been poorer than I thought growing up. I picked beans, pecans, berries, tomatoes, corn, peppers...I mentioned this before..but grandfather had a (what he liked to call) little garden, but 20 acres is a lot of work. Whole family came home for harvest. Men picked, women canned. Gave surpluses to food banks...fought over who got the extra can of green beans. Lots of baking and fishing in there too. Didn't get paid a dime, but it was some of the happiest work I have ever done. I didn't appreciate it near enough growing up.
Had some interesting discussion of scale yesterday...getting to energy "pay/go" will be about as much fun as with the federal budget as we are seeing similar levels of preparation for that outcome...
Lots of unions need busted. They are part of the problem
LBD, because their situation is hopeless, they've transformed their mission away from representing the working stiff and counter-balancing the much, much more powerful employer and towards doing whatever they can to hang on. You should watch the second season of the wire if you want to understand what many unions have been forced to become.
Now, don't forget that your republican friends would really love to have a zillion illegal immigrants in the country (why do you think bush didn't take care of this problem when he was in power?), regulatory laws removed, civil rights legislation repealed, minimum wage laws eliminated, and unions busted and/or laws protecting collective bargaining agreements repealed or unenforced. They'll feed you all kinds of lines about unions being inherently evil and free market forces needing to be unrestricted to work to get this done.
Ask yourself this. If the Republicans think that government regulation is evil and that individuals should be allowed to make their own way, but also that individuals who happen to be workers banding together to represent their interests as a solid block to their employers are evil and should be eliminated, what kind of institution does that leave? Companies and wealthy individuals who are big enough that they don't need to band together to get enough power to be heard. Who gets to band together and protect their interests, in the republican's eyes? Companies banding together, creating monopolistic trusts. You never hear about how badly you're fucked by archer daniels midland, fixing your commodity prices. Who are you more afraid of, a bunch of dumb-fuck union workers with no money in a dying industry or the real holders of power and wealth, the people who control your food and your congress?
Don't buy into anti-union propaganda. I seem to be mentally retarded right now for some reason and unable to compose properly, but some time when I'm not incapacitated I will go into the union thing further.
"The United Kingdom’s Office for National Statistics announced on Feb. 18 a 1.2 billion-pound ($1.87 billion) surplus in January, adding that London had to borrow 4.3 billion pounds ($6.7 billion) because of a steep decline in income tax and capital gains tax payments, with a sharp increase in interest payments to cover governmental debt."
Amen. A commenter at ZH recently noted that economics is a branch of thermodynamics.
"Yet there’s also a broader context here, which Schumacher addressed only indirectly, and which has only been hinted at in this post – the need to redefine our notions of economics to make sense in the real world, and above all, to respond to the most economically important of the laws of physics. Yes, those would be the laws of thermodynamics. "
adornosghost writes: That is real time energy--
We have been using stored energy, in ancient sunlight.
Living real time will be interesting again, that is his point.
Tap some of the energy that radiates from our sun in a more active manner, rather than passively absorbing the minuscule fraction of whatever happens to make it through our atmosphere, and we could have enough energy on this planet, in "real time," to vaporize the entire mass of the planet. People who think we have an energy crisis, that without oil we have to return to toiling like some kind of stupid apes, are simply not thinking big enough. Nuclear power as a stopgap, solar sats and extra-terrestrial power accumulation for the long run. There is no shortage of energy in the universe, just look in the goddamn sky.
The notion that unions are THE problem is bogus. Unionism has been declining for decades while at the same time our eCONomic and financial problems were ballooning.
I was snarking, and yes you are right...GD 1, great grandma's first husband disappeared. Managed to find work with AT&T and later Southwestern Bell. But it was hard times. She gardened, quilted, cooked...from sunup to sundown...quilted while working as an operator...multitasking even back then. Both my grandmother and grandfather worked for SW Bell too...and the three of them pinched every penny and grew as much of their food as they could. Grandfather fished on Saturdays...main meat source was fish. I don't know when they ever slept.
When on the odd occasion that i'll have a campfire in the back of beyond, I reckon that it takes one minute to burn through 1 year of stored energy from the sun in the wood i'm using...
I've added a new metric to my unemployment claims chart, the "Job Engine Oscillator". This is experimental, and needs some tweaking, but basically it ranges from 0 to 100% based on whether the U.E. claims are at the high end of their range (for a given week in the year, for years 2006-present) or the low end. A healthy job engine will score near 100% - claims at the low end of the range - and conversely, a weak engine will score 0% - claims setting new highs.
The current Job Engine Oscillator is at 43%, down from 54% last week but in the same general range that we've been for the past few weeks.
Feb. 18 (Bloomberg) -- The 400 highest-earning U.S. households reported an average of $345 million in income in 2007, up 31 percent from a year earlier, IRS statistics show.
The average tax rate for the households fell to the lowest in almost 20 years.
The figures for 2007, the last year of an economic expansion, show that the average income reported by the top 400 earners more than doubled from $131.1 million in 2001. That year, Congress adopted tax cuts urged by then-President George W. Bush that Democrats say disproportionately benefits the wealthy.
Each household in the top 400 of earners paid an average tax rate of 16.6 percent,the lowest since the agency began tracking the data in 1992, the Internal Revenue Service statistics show. Their average effective tax rate was about half the 29.4 percent in 1993, the first year of President Bill Clinton’s administration, when taxes were increased.
The statistics underscore “two long-term trends: that income at the very top has exploded and their taxes have been cut dramatically,” said Chuck Marr, director of federal tax policy at the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, a Washington research group that supports increasing taxes on high-income individuals.
The "theoretical" is the problem here. The U.S. has been overproducing theoretical Ph.D.s and sending them to Wall Street. The experimentalists are the ones with a grasp of reality; the others are generally overly credulous in dealing with their own theories...
The "theoretical" is the problem here. The U.S. has been overproducing theoretical Ph.D.s and sending them to Wall Street. The experimentalists are the ones with a grasp of reality; the others are generally overly credulous in dealing with their own theories...
Yup. My Dad is a physicist (experiment type) and has noted this trend among physicists and mathematicians for years.
Except that the government can change the rules of economics. There are uncertainties that simply do not exist in thermodynamics.
No, they cannot change the rules of economics. They can just change the state of the thermodynamic system, at a high cost. Uncertainty about the government's directly suppresses entrepreneurial job creation and breeds recession.
When on the odd occasion that i'll have a campfire in the back of beyond, I reckon that it takes one minute to burn through 1 year of stored energy from the sun in the wood i'm using...
With oil, we are burning through 10,000 years of stored energy a day.
Anyone see a problem here?
People who think we have an energy crisis, that without oil we have to return to toiling like some kind of stupid apes, are simply not thinking big enough.
Economics is not science. The fundamental laws of physics, chemistry, etc, don't radically change every few years. New theories are built to augment the previous ideas, but you don't see the wholesale churn that occurs in the social "sciences". After all these years, F still equal ma.
in "real time," to vaporize the entire mass of the planet. People who think we have an energy crisis, that without oil we have to return to toiling like some kind of stupid apes
Hoops, but this is why we aren't going there. I fully believe we have reached a point where technology advancement is being purposely controlled. The implications of misuse are staggering and I don't think the people who make the decisions are ready to deal with the consequences. Just my two cents...by the way...how is the anger working for you? Does it empower you? I have found anger makes me feel better but it does not provide a conduit for critical thinking...it does however provide an instinctual level of thinking that usually cuts through all the bullshit and provides a clarity of its own.
solar sats and extra-terrestrial power accumulation for the long run
The question isn't whether the energy is there or not - or even the concept of SPS which have been bruited about since the '60s - it is the necessary investment in infrastructure to make it happen, not only in bringing down the juice but then the electrification of the economy which is currently tied to liquid transportation fuels.
Read this part carefully - even if SPS technology were proven today - from our current state this is the work of a couple of decades to accomplish.
Before you flail out at me Hoops, we are aligned on the end state and the need for movement, particularly with respect to opening the bottle (read: extra-planetary resources). However, IMNSHO making it happen starts from recognizing the scale of the undertaking.
I did not think that worked at the quantum level? Perhaps we are in the era of quantum economics? The lack of transparency in CDS seems very Heisenberg to me.
Haven't heard anything convincing out of you to the contrary. Do you deny that there is a big goddamn ball of energy in our sky? Does it not exist in your world? Do you think that after the oil runs out we're all going to throw up our hands and say, "oh well, game over!" and pick up the nearest stick and start hitting people with it for breeding rights? What kind of scenario do you envision here, where we run out of oil energy and then simply refuse to use nuclear or to launch satellites to capture more energy from the sun and beam it down here as microwaves? I am curious about how you see it playing out. After oil, the future of humanity will play out kind of like two thirsty, retarded toddlers beating each other to death for a teacup of water beside an above-ground swimming pool, from the sound of it.
The statistics underscore “two long-term trends: that income at the very top has exploded and their taxes have been cut dramatically,” said Chuck Marr, director of federal tax policy at the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, a Washington research group that supports increasing taxes on high-income individuals.
greenchutes wrote: Our primate ancestors picked up the stick tens of millions of years ago and no one has dropped it yet.
Yes - whatever they called it, they invented money.
Jd,
I am about to board a 3 hour flight and I have in hand a copy of "The Great Depression - A Diary" based on the excerpts you have posted here recently.
I will post my impressions later today. Happy dooming all.
I'm sorry I thought we were discussing orbiting solar collectors which would involve technology...did I not read carefully enough...sorry I haven't had my coffee yet...
To show how the level of debate in this country has deteriorated- a move by the administration to offer annuities to investors in 401k plans - is treated as a gigantic conspiracy to force investors into Treasury securities or some kind of confiscation.
Seems to me people should have the choice of buying an annuity from the Federal Government or from a private insurer.
Amen greechutes. Today, right now, women still have not reached pay parity with their male counterparts. Oh well. So much for human progress, we're still nothing but a bunch of naked apes.
That was my point. For 99.99% of applications, F=ma works. Those who came later noticed that on some scales, it didn't and sought to build a new branch of physics that explained the phenomena they observed. This process is very different than the social sciences, where new, contradictory theories are generated every few years bearing little resemblance to physical reality. Remember, the folks at NakedCapitalism and Phil Krugman believe deficits don't matter, despite thousands of years of evidence to the contrary.
Nanoo-Nanoo, women won't reach pay parity with males until we either relieve them of the burden of bearing children through some technological means, or institute a law that states that the male partner of every conception must spend an equal amount of time off work as the female partner spends for the purpose of conceiving and rearing each child. There is no way around a 1 year hole in a woman's career progress and its effects on her income, even if women were treated absolutely the same in all regards.
I'm sorry I thought we were discussing orbiting solar collectors which would involve technology...did I not read carefully enough...sorry I haven't had my coffee yet...
We were, I was just pointing out the thermodynamics behind the problem.
Magical thinking is fun, and sometimes productive, but one must eventually come to terms with Energy Returned On Energy Invested.
Yes, my wife was back to work in 7 weeks, and she worked from home during those seven weeks. Now 2nd child, she stayed home for six weeks, and then went back on a half day schedule for six more...and worked from home.
Except that Astrology is the hobby of kings, going back thousands of years, giving birth to Astronomy and serving as an inspiring template for all thinigs mystic. FWIW, the only real player I know in finance pays for a Vedic chart every year.
Before you flail out at me Hoops, we are aligned on the end state and the need for movement, particularly with respect to opening the bottle (read: extra-planetary resources). However, IMNSHO making it happen starts from recognizing the scale of the undertaking.
Hard not to appreciate the bottlenecks and logjams, ee.
From the pie-getting-ever-larger crowd @ Bubblevision, "WalMart sales declines, the first ever in their storied history, could be due to their shoppers TRADING UP!"
How about fewer WMT customers got another UI extension ? That sounds at least a little more plausible.
The problem is we aren't allowed anymore to procreate without it being a gigantic negative if you look into your future and see that black hole which is the cost of raising a child. The poor procreate much faster as their expectations for themselves and for their children are very low, mortality is high, education among the poor traditionally subpar as is access to health care.
I've learned one thing in my life, you really cannot do it all and have it all...at least all at once. I had lower expectations for my life than was actualized. Part of that was luck, part of that was planning, part of that was working my tail off and discipline. More and more couples and women are opting not to have children.
Hoops, that says more about your experience than anything else.
Trust me, plenty of professional women drop out in their late 30s (or even early 40s, which is horrible on a health basis) to have babies, then ease back into the workforce a decade later. These are the ladies that unemployed young bucks like you should be seeking out.
So we find amongst the data that the core PPI only up marginally but the food/energy PPI component up significantly.
That really gave me a pause since I'm only seeing the gas price bump around here within a narrow band, so it has to be food. Expect more of that as the herds continue to be thinned and sugar continues to rise.
This is deflationary, right?
I should call my congressman's finance staffer back and remind him of our pre-TARP phone conversation in which I told him to take the depression - it's coming anyway - and save the currency.
As to teen labor, we still have it here as those 15 + can get their work certs from the school district and pick tomatoes. Also have a good friend who picked berries and veggies with migrants at some local farms. He learned a lot about porn from the single migrant workers.
women won't reach pay parity with males until we either relieve them of the burden of bearing children through some technological means
Hoops, that's not up to you to decide. And BTW, the "we relieve them" language is literally patronizing. In any case, you're not going to make headway with this crowd. it's another flame war in the making.
From the pie-getting-ever-larger crowd @ Bubblevision, "WalMart sales,declines the first ever in their storied history, could be due to their shoppers TRADING UP!"
How about fewer WMT customers got another UI extension ? That sounds at least a little more plausible.
Who do you want to believe? The HappiHeads™ in CNBC or the state by state sales tax reporting?
Looks like the old correlation between sinking dollar and rising stocks is still in effect. Luckily for the public, oil is rising as well.
Yep, dollar carry trade, all that jazz, yadda yadda yadda!
I think oil is rising on a lack of fundamentals and is a pure carry trade today. I think the 11am EIA inventory report will show a big build for the week, which should cause a plunge in oil prices. Just IMO. Of course, likely the opposite will happen
From the pie-getting-ever-larger crowd @ Bubblevision, "WalMart sales,declines the first ever in their storied history, could be due to their shoppers TRADING UP!"
Really? They said that? The upper scale retailers (from Target to Macy's) all all doing worse. Traditional supermarkets are getting crushed.
If that happens, my guess is that seemingly overnight we will convert to a CNG economy, with some dislocations, but overall with good results, not to mention starve the jihadi bankers We have plenty of NG, I am told.
scone, put the word "economic" in between the and burden in the sentence "we relieve them of the burden" to get my meaning. I mean that bearing (and often uncompensated, disproportionate responsibility for raising) children has economic costs that are partially responsible for wage differentials between women and men. I don't understand how you can find that insulting, it's a fact. Taking time out of your career to do that stuff will have an impact on your wages.
Hoops, it is the sentence structure that is offensive. Womenfolk can be a bit touchy about that first person plural, the same first person plural that might deign to tell them all sorts of things about what "they" think is best for a woman's body. The more melanin-endowed people on our planet can have a similar reaction to these syntactical structures.
Target is "upper scale retailer"? Target is killing the grocery chains around my area. Yogurt is $0.89 with your shoppers club card. At Target do you know how much it is? $0.52; and I don't need to get a shoppers card to get that price!
Honestly, there's going to be an adjustment here akin to the years of the "women's lib" movement. Women will reach pay parity with men, and might have already done so amongst some income classes. Men are perfectly capable of caring for kids and running the household but everything is skewed through the lens of past experiences. The social view of men/husbands/fathers has diminished dramatically with the advent of Homer Simpson and Al Bundy and it's gonna take years to overcome that, coupled with the reality that most men grew up in a time that they didn't have to pay attention and learn about the household like women did. And men are gonna have to wake up to the new realities of the world around us.
They get some of my money each year. They are sane and compassionate, yet recognize our immigration policies don't benefit citizens. And they have a real impact on Congress.
I think $200 oil is very unlikely to happen in the next 1 to 5 years. Even knows that society as we know it would collapse at that price and it's effects on our society, people would be getting out the pitchforks
The PTB and will drive their blood funnel into oil and drive the price up to around $110 to $130 a barrel, maybe this summer, and extract as much wealth as they can out of the system. They have oil as a big target and know they can make money on it in both long positions and then short positions, depending on how they read the tea leaves
Why all the fuss about who's going to stay home with the baby. With our current employment scenario, there will always be someone home. Gender will not be the primary issue. It's going to be more and more a non-issue, at least as far as the trend is looking now.
Has the IMF run out of veiled threats as far as the barbarous is concerned?
JD, I tend to watch that out of self-interest. Market has seldom shown more than a passing interest in IMF pronouncements on the subject. They've been waving that particular jawbone about for so many years, I think it's now mistaken for a coke spoon.
People who think we have an energy crisis, that without oil we have to return to toiling like some kind of stupid apes, are simply not thinking big enough
Yes. As both a physicist and an financial modeler, I can comment on this.
One of the most dangerous propositions ever to make its way to high school and college physics, and indeed to the Patent Office, is that there are no perpetual motion machines. From a physics standpoint, this is defensible. It is true that if you can manage to insulate a system against all potential forms of incoming energy, you can not have a perpetually running machine.
But, there is a danger. As one of my physics professors explained, you can have machines which run an arbitrarily long time without paying for energy, or going to any effort to supply it. You just need machines where the fuel or energy source keeps showing up. This kind of energy is all over the $%^&ing place. You simply need effective ways of harvesting it or channeling it. There are a huge number of naturally occuring forms of energy on our little planet which are far larger than what we get out of fossil fuels: wind, solar, lightning, internal heat of the earth, tides, etc.
Of course, if you're not looking to harness nearly perpetual sources of energy, because you didn't get the subtleties of perpetual motion, you're much less likely to find it.
Scone,
I have noticed a generational gap emerging from my wife's work experience. When she first arrived, we had no hope of advancement. There was blatant sexism from the older folks, both men and women actually. But a strange thing happened, my wife started accomplishing things, which for a government office is a miraculous occurance. The older folks started retiring...and a new boss came in who was results oriented. Actually told my wife she does more work in a day than 20 normal federal employees. So implementing project management...he has made her project manager for most projects, even ones with a higher grade phds working on it. This has ruffled some feathers, but she gets things done...so it is a compromise. The question is whether she will get a promotion. A desk audit has been put in...but HR is concerned about the effect it will have on other employees...if it works though...I might have a little more faith in people regarding women in the workplace.
Well, homedad, maybe you're the exception that proves the rule.
Most of the men I know, when they have a tough career spot (which is most of the men in this country as of this lovely February day) that finds them at home, sink pretty quickly into a sense of depression fueled by entitlement and frustration. Most men never really overcome the alpha-male paradigm, which just doesn't square with the literal handling of shit, which is a substantial part of the early childrearing experience. They think they are Drew Brees, not June Cleaver, and that self-image dies hard.
Rob Dawg wrote:
Who do you want to believe? The HappiHeads™ in CNBC or the state by state sales tax reporting? |
I'm sure they would like to convince their advertisers that they need to buy to grab a share of that "trading-up" market.
I've noticed a lot of the cable channels running more "filler" commercials. Not just hair club for squirrels but self promotion spots.
The idea that children can rear themselves is such BS. Having someone at home after school is essential, having someone at home for those developing years, too essential to put in the hands of strangers. I know economically, it was the only way in recent decades, particularly for middle class wage earners. But for all the 'family friendly' conservative talk-the policies were anything but. The little exchanges in the form of tax breaks amount to a insulting slap in the face compared with the ones given to corporations and top 5%.
I don't understand how you can find that insulting, it's a fact. Taking time out of your career to do that stuff will have an impact on your wages.
It's not for you to decide. That's the whole point. Economic parity is not your fight, and it's not something you can take or give. The mere fact that you assume men have all the power here and can "give" equal rights by fiat is very telling. Injustice exists. Your "right" to repair injustice according to your own values does not exist. Women will eventually come to pay parity on their own terms, thank you very much. And if they choose to do something like take time out from the workforce, that's up to them, not you. You don't own this revolution, you have no business dictating where it goes.
We dreamers like to continually slam ourselves against brick walls... It helps get the creative juices flowing.
Don't get me wrong, putting what easy energy we have left into solar development is the best thing we can do with it.
Dreaming and thinking outside the box is needed.
Nanoo-Nanoo wrote: The idea that children can rear themselves is such BS. Having someone at home after school is essential, having someone at home for those developing years, too essential to put in the hands of strangers.
Again, a key strategy here was to remove the bonding between parent and child that allows the child to inherit the parental worldview and values independent of the conditioning of mass media or socialization. Do you think it accidental that government became the big daddy warmonger and gambler, and nurturing, social-conditioning mommy state shortly after the nuclear family was split up due to economic necessity?
sink pretty quickly into a sense of depression fueled by entitlement and frustration.
I will admit, I went through issues when I first decided to stop looking for a job. This was before our first child...but then a strange thing happened...I was able to put my energy into making sure my wife's needs were being met. That isn't just making sure the laundry gets done. With two people working, you are both dealing with emotional stress... with one, well it is easier to ratchet the stress level down. Being a say at home husband/father has turned out to be the best thing for our marriage/family.
But that self-image will eventually die. Like I said, it's going to take a long time and adjustment just like women have had to go through in the workplace. This is generational.
But that doesn't mean that men ultimately aren't capable of caring for the kids and running the household.
Vonbek777 wrote: I will admit, I went through issues when I first decided to stop looking for a job
I've got three friends, all of high intelligence and a solid education, one of whom is basically stay-at-home dad and all of whom are outearned by their partner. One is a high school teacher in a small school with a wife that's an RN/therapist and the other two have attorney wives. Two of the guys were top debaters that made national semis or finals back in high school and all scored 90% or better on the college boards and have solid educations. They aren't stupid and don't lack ambition. Times are changing.
There is no way around a 1 year hole in a woman's career progress and its effects on her income, even if women were treated absolutely the same in all regards.
....since when is raising and nurturing a small child a "1-year hole"concept? Have you discussed this with Polaroid or something?
Sorry again but I have a question I have yet to hear an answer about, hopefully someone can enlighten me. Who is buying all the debt?
We have debt, EU has debt, UK has debt, China is tightening and not buying, foreign sales are way down in the UST market...so who is??
European governments are selling record amounts of debt to haul their economies out of recession. Rising budget deficits, unemployment levels and bad loans in countries from the U.K. to Spain are weighing on sovereign debt markets.
Britain posted its first budget deficit for January since records began in 1993 and jobless claims rose last month to the highest since 1997. Credit-default swaps on the U.K. rose 1.5 basis points to 92.5, CMA prices show.
Bad Loans
Portugal’s unemployment rate rose to 10.1 percent, the highest in 23 years in the fourth quarter after the country’s economy contracted by an estimated 2.7 percent last year. Bad loans at Spanish banks climbed to 5.08 percent of total credit in December.
Black Star Ranch wrote: Have you discussed this with Polaroid or something?
It's been so cold out here in Timbuktu that I almost got a polaroid just the other day.
> Sorry again but I have a question I have yet to hear an answer
lets say the government spends money- unemployment check. It credits somebodies bank account. The bank now has that money they turn around and buy government bonds which gives the government the money to spend. As long as the money stays in the "system" there is no problem. If J6P decides to take the money and stick in their mattress that is when the problems begin.
It follows from this that when people say "money left the market" they don't have the foggiest idea of what they speak. If I sell shares ("take money out") somebody has to buy them who puts in exactly the same amount of money as I took out. In the 70's when the oil producers had all the huge reserves everybody was worrying about what would happen if they took their money out of US banks. The question that never occurred was what would they do with it? Put it in a European bank who would then lend it to a U.S. Bank.
It also illustrates why it is so important to have a lender of last resort. In my above example the European bank could elect to just leave the money at the Federal Reserve. If that happened the Fed would need to lend the money to a US bank
Good Morning
Briefing.com: Stock Market Update
As a young, educated job seeker, it's as if the bottom three rungs of the career ladder have been sawed off. There is simply nowhere in this economy to get a good hold of anything.
The worst is behind us!
jobless inflation
dum luk wrote:
Ah, time to break out the misery index. Everything old is new again!! How long will Ben be able to keep rates at 0%; Bond vigilantes first? What is the inflation rate for other currencies?
If we deported the Illegals that would free up how many jobs for Americans?
Rumor says 10 to 15% cut at my workplace by Mar 31
'Its an ongoing process '
Hoopajoops LTD wrote:
you're a smart guy, sincerely
write a business plan based on fulfilling a need in a local market
then build the relationships
if you need help, I'm there for you
Lobbyist Ben Dover wrote:
I'd rather they deport the H1-B's.
Lobbyist Ben Dover wrote:
That would mean a lot of 'investment banker' positions open and political positions to run for.
Hoopajoops LTD wrote:
You're an atty in CA. You must be able to sue somebody over this.
Ben,
We both know this isn't going to happen.
* DHS/ TSA is too busy swabbing hands for explosives residue down at the airport.
* Bovine Americans aren't going to pick crops or do heavy physical labor.
Lobbyist Ben Dover wrote:
Be careful what you wish for. Those illegals would vacate a lot of housing units, probably leave a lot of cars behind. Rents and home prices in CA would drop.
On a more positive note, there would be less traffic.
The last JOLTS report that CR posted had an interesting tit bit. The layoffs which had been decreasing picked up in December. Also the number of people quitting dropped dramatically. Next months report will be interesting to see if the trend continues.
To me the interesting thing was that initial claims were higher than historic levels while the number of layoffs had returned to more or less their historic level. Suggesting to me that the problem had transitioned from layoffs to the absence of new job growth- i.e people in previous periods who were laid off were not finding substitute employment.
Blackhalo wrote:
Got to start some where and the term Illegal works the best. Hard to deport legal workers in comparison. More like not renew or accept new ones. Time to get selfish for a while.
Reading the MSM headlines, all I can think is
"We need to hire better expectors".
There is No fundamental recovery taking place. It's another debt induced spurt of speculation. Nothing more.
We have years of misery in front of us thanks to junk eCONomics at the Fed and epic Wall St. looting.
Trillions and trillions in bogus credit will not disappear any time soon.
LBD, illegals represent labor efficiency gains for industry, lowering costs. While it would open some jobs, I wonder how many businesses we have which are currently viable and competitive with our slave-wage international trading partners would have to shutter without the pressure valve of illegal labor to prop them up. Illegal immigrants are essentially a free subsidy for many kinds of business, especially construction and AG.
Besides, sabotaging labor efficiency to create jobs can be accomplished by deporting all illegals or by, I dunno, outlawing the use of automated robotics in some manufacturing plants, forcing groundskeepers to use manual labor rather than motorized vehicles to cart landscaping equipment around public lands and parks... I wonder whether that would be good or bad for our economy, in the long run.
HomeGnome wrote:
Some will. Somebody also will get the bright idea of using prison labor.
Oh, and some things in agriculture will finally be mechanized.
The BLS is going to need a plague or something to kill off enough Americans to keep the unemployment rate dropping in light of this.
Maybe a mega-volcano!
Lobbyist Ben Dover wrote:
not as many as most people think because Americans wouldn't work the jobs . Here in Vermont we are short farm labor but we have people on welfare.
Now that this has been going on awhile I think I understand it a little better. Part of the problem is we are now members of the video age. No patience and we expect answers in minutes. Our financial crisis, however, is more like War and Peace to get through, rather than Green Eggs and Ham. And why wouldn't it drag on like this? Our central bank has been helicoptering money at our deleveraging implosion like no other time in history. And now we want a second round of massive stimulus, to be paid for by the now and future taxpayer....
Well, with the very inconsistent results achieved so far by the treasury and our leaders, I am trying to see what happens when the stimulus is withdrawn and interest rates rise. Many will eschew risk, and as liquidity dries up (yeah, I know about bank lending already), then it seems to me there will be NO driver for commerce. Yet, the drama must play out, and the government must stop what they've been doing.
Already this year the deficit is 8.8% higher than last year. You cannot pretend there is not a monster under the bed. There is...
From the report...
CR, these states haven't gotten your memo about construction being dead for the foreseeable future:
CA -13,535 Fewer layoffs in the construction industry.
PA -9,491 Fewer layoffs in the construction, trade, and service industries.
FL -3,587 Fewer layoffs in the construction, trade, service, and manufacturing industries, and agriculture.
IL -1,815 Fewer layoffs in the construction, trade, and manufacturing industries.
WI -1,412 Fewer layoffs in the construction, trade, public administration, and manufacturing industries.
NC -1,408 Fewer layoffs in the construction, service, and apparel industries.
(maybe there's no one left to layoff. I know a few small builders here in NC who are down to the owners and 1 or 2 staff. Everyone else has gotten the axe)
And it's nice to see that our auto and manufacturing recovery is bearing fruit for the workers. Oh, wait a minute.
STATES WITH AN INCREASE OF MORE THAN 1,000
State Change State Supplied Comment
MI +1,724 Layoffs in the automobile industry.
IA +2,014 Layoffs in the manufacturing industry.
I learned yesterday that I will get some furlough action. Will probably start in April, along with a [temporary] wage freeze.
The jobs situation is worse than ever too. Every dollar we send abroad to fund our CONsumption based trade deficit makes us poorer and less able to create jobs.
Of course, the swindlers on Wall St. get wealthy the debt based impoverishment of our nation.
I've yet to see a non-Hispanic picking crops in the Central Valley...
The democratic party, if it were principled, should be the party rallying for the end of our illegal immigrant slave labor racket. Instead, they have betrayed a long-time cornerstone of their base, wage earners and labor unions.
GOD DAMNIT HOOCOODANODE WHY ARE YOU PAUSING AND PAUSING AND PAUSING AND LAGGING WHEN I AM TRYING TO TYPE IT IS REALLY FUCKING UP MY COMPOSITION
Testing testing testing testing do I really need to disable javascript again in order to use your site ken
Hoopajoops LTD,
We have to go backwards to catch up with the contraction and provide jobs to baseline. To continue free services to illegals and UE benefits does nothing but extend and pretend. Reality sucks, Flat out. Many Americans need to find out what real work is like. Party is over.
Angry Saver wrote:
I'm guessing you're an advocate of energy independence? Now seems like a good time. It you're going to blow lots of govt money on stimulus, go for conservation, wind, solar, etc.
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
Guest-Worker Debate: Human or Mechanical Labor? : NPR
More on the employment situation.
Since last August, I've been tracking claims, CONtinuing claims, extended benefits and emergency benefits. For a brief period late last year, it looked like the aggregates were peaking. No more though. We've been busting through to new highs lately.
The situation is likely worse than the numbers bear out as it is being reported that millions have now used up their extended and emergency unemployment benefits.
Bad credit ruined our eCONomy. And the Fed is responsible.
Wu Hu! Meet your new masters.
For a 'serviced-based' economy; why not employ people to actually perform a 'service'? Who likes going through those automated telephone menus and never reach a real live person (and maybe if you do, they aren't in the USA)? How is it that we can't have enough RNs in hospitals, enough LPNs or even primary care physicians?
When I rarely go to a shopping mall (I live rurally), is there anyone around that knows the merchandise and can assist me? Does everyone need to a freaking BA to be a secretary? Is it more efficient for a research engineer and its entire lab to answer their own phones, type up their own letters and documents, schedule their own travel, etc.- is that a productive use of their time?
V,
Subsidies farm work with welfare benefits for Americans. I bet many would find something else to do real fast. I did.
extended and emergency unemployment benefits.
Now it's time to start using their "double secret" unemployment benefits!
Ark firm agrees to $2.75M settlement of wage lawsuit brought by migrant farmworkers in Tenn - KFSM
Angry Saver wrote:
The UK also:
UK government posts first January borrowing on record |
Business |
guardian.co.uk
Blackhalo wrote:
They will just export the jobs to other shores! So without stopping offshoring of jobs, just getting rid of H1-Bs does not work. For example WFC do not hire H1-Bs, at least openly. But they have a IT center in Hyderabad that employs hundreds.
Also some of them, not very many, are very qualified. Over the weekend ran into an Indian man in his early 30's, Phd in EE from UC Boulder, works for Cisco; his work currently is about optimizing placement of components on boards to maximize radiation shielding. Also his wife is an Indian woman, MD, works as a pediatric specialist in a rural hospital, where our own homegrown doctors will not go. I am not sure we gain by deporting the likes of them. Do you? If it were up to me , I would given them green card straight out of schools/residency.
REBear wrote:
That's scary. I hope you avoid the cuts.
Wisdom Speaker checking in after a few weeks of frantic real-world activity...
Just wanted to comment that the weekly UE claims data, when plotted properly -- without the seasonal adjustment and with the horizontal axis representing "week in the year" so one can do a visual seasonal adjustment while seeing how each year compares to the next -- doesn't show nearly the same sort of unexpected variation (one is tempted to say "noise") as the seasonally adjusted data.
The actual 2010 claims are clearly not in recovery territory and clearly not as bad as last year - see Investing for Sustainable Gains for a plot (coming shortly).
from: In the Fields: Visas help build labor pool | workers, duron, temporary - News - YumaSun
Wisdom Speaker wrote:
Thanks for the chart. It sure looks like the 2009 pattern, just at a lower level.
LBD, the "illegal immigrants use up our free services!" line is bunk. They contribute far more in the form of labor than they take.
The real destruction they cause is their insidious union-busting ability among the skilled laborers. Electricians, plumbers, construction workers, agricultural workers, all used to be union strongholds. Their bargaining position has been weakened so thoroughly by an infinite supply of mexican peasant labor that they are now lucky to receive the wages of a mexican peasant.
The democratic party used to be a party of honest labor, the working stiff, of unions, and of solidarity among the blue collar crowd. They betrayed the backbone of america they used to represent by supporting the non-enforcement of illegal immigration laws against employers and by supporting NAFTA and trade policies with China.
All these tea party folks should be democrats, but they're not; the only party that purports to represent their interests are the Republicans. But the repubs are and always have been a party of the elite, the wealthy, the privileged. This fit is bad, the working stiffs are realizing that they've been betrayed by both sides of the aisle, and are lashing out.
Man my brain is fuzzy this morning, I'm not feeling like I'm writing very well.
IMF announces gold sale (gold they ain't got BTW) and gold drops precipitously
it's just above 1,100!! sell, sell, sell
some investor guy writes:
I'm guessing you're an advocate of energy independence? Now seems like a good time. It you're going to blow lots of govt money on stimulus, go for conservation, wind, solar, etc.
NUCLEAR NUCLEAR NUCLEAR NUCLEAR NUCLEAR NUCLEAR NUCLEAR NUCLEAR NUCLEAR NUCLEAR NUCLEAR NUCLEAR NUCLEAR NUCLEAR NUCLEAR
Wind and solar are complete bunk. We need nuclear plants. Thousands of them.
You're writing just fine Hoopajoops. I enjoy reading your thoughts.
tncubsfan wrote:
Once again ... proof that western civilisation is but a footnote to the Greeks.
OT -
's looking hungry today.
Bruce in Tennessee wrote:
+1
SNAFU wrote:
Flooding the market with foreign labor, even skilled, educated labor, increases supply, lowering compensation and opportunity for native born, equally qualified labor, and reduces the incentives for domestic talent to seek that training or qualification. Anecdotal evidence is less than compelling to me.
I'd rather they deport the H1-B's.
Adding to SNAFU's comments, what most people forget that when the "best and the brightest" come here to study from other countries, most stay here.
4shzl wrote:
"There’s nothing all that remarkable about the future ahead of us; it’s simply that the unparalleled abundance that our civilization bought by burning through half a billion years of stored sunlight in three short centuries has left most people in the industrial world clueless about the basic realities of human life in more ordinary times.
It’s this cluelessness that underlies so many enthusiastic discussions of a green future full of high technology and relative material abundance. Those discussions also rely on one of the dogmas of the modern religion of progress, the article of faith that the accumulation of technical knowledge was what gave the industrial world its three centuries of unparalleled wealth; since technical knowledge is still accumulating, the belief goes, we may expect more of the same in the future."
--Greer
4shzl: remember Keynes' warning
The Hindu : Front Page : Keynesian warning is one of seven ‘big messages’: Manmohan
Oregon here. from what i hear, highschool kids used to pick crops, do the haying, etc in summer. seems that stopped with child labor laws. not sure of the mechanism. i hear older folk lamenting the days that teenagers could earn some $ and blow off steam doing that hard work.
All this talk about deportation of H1B's, etc. is never going to happen. When has any of the parties advocated that? It hasn't been for like 20 years, if ever.
Hoopajoops LTD,
Lots of unions need busted. They are part of the problem, look deep into the UAW and GM. Also look at run away government expenses as Unions have grown in Government labor. Things are out of balance every where. Illegals are part of the problem. Americans think they are to good for the jobs their fore fathers did are part of the problem. On and on. Contraction is going back to what worked mixed with the good things we have learned. Same process as running a race car.
.......US citizens down on their knees doing ANY kind of work? Give me a break. You're in dreamland. When I ran work crews (in the late 90s) you couldn't even kidnap US borns to work - they'd rather get drunk, high, or be stupid and stay at home 5-days a week. Now it's probably worse with prolonged UE.
Hoopajoops LTD wrote:
The Dems haven't had these people's backs for decades.
A very good book on the subject ...
What's the matter with Kansas.
Greer seems to be ignorant of the fact that there is a gigantic nuclear reactor hovering in the sky representing a nearly infinite supply of energy.
We need nuclear plants. Thousands of them.
Hoops,
There is no shortage of electricity in this country. I won't even mention how much energy we waste either.
Don't buy the debt creation hype.
Time to hit the road and spend a couple days with the accountant. Tax time. Have a good one!
Hoopajoops LTD wrote:
That is real time energy--
We have been using stored energy, in ancient sunlight.
Living real time will be interesting again, that is his point.
One should gain some thermodynamic literacy.
Does an extra $10.00 a day sound like a big raise?
How would you like to have to pick an extra 1000 pounds of tomatoes to get it?
That's what the tomato pickers in Florida were striking for last year.
A penny-a-pound raise.
As long as there is high unemployment, it's a buyers' market. Recessions both shake out the small fry competition and make the laborers powerless.
OT sort of:
Stocks Weigh Down U.S. Pension Funds : NPR
.....
"Many plan sponsors hoped that by investing in the stock market they would make higher-than-expected returns, thereby reducing the need to contribute so much," she says. And that happened in the 1980s and 1990s. But it didn't last.
"There is a downside to volatility and we're now experiencing it with a vengeance," she says.
So what will happen?
Kirkegaard says the pressure on companies to increase contributions will most likely lead companies to lay off more people than they otherwise would have.
The good news for workers with corporate defined-benefit plans is that their plans are partially insured by the federal government through the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corp. In 2008, there were 44 million Americans who were either actively working or retired with a private sector defined-benefit pension plan from a company, according to the PBGC. These plans pay out a fixed amount of money each month until you die.
But no such protections exist for the roughly 20 million state and government workers or for average investors with 401(k) or IRA plans.
The study also found that some state and local government pension funds are drastically underfunded — a crisis that looms large because they support some of the oldest work forces in the nation. A case in point is the Indian State Teachers Retirement Fund, which had a funding ratio of 43.4 percent in 2006, or the Illinois State Employees Retirement System, which had a funding radio of 52.2 percent for the same year. Ideally, this figure should be closer to 100 percent, Kirkegaard says.
....
I live in the land of oranges, each tree has about 1,000 golden balls hanging from it's branches and sometimes i'll watch the pickers at work, armed with a ladder and a sack to stick their bounty in. Each sack holds around 40 pounds and once it's full they go dump it into large plastic square boxes, and start over again. Figure you'll do this 50 times in a day for pay of around $50.
That's one ton of fruit...
Lobbyist Ben Dover wrote:
YouTube - The Beatles - Taxman
adornosghost wrote:
Source please.
Man, I must have been poorer than I thought growing up. I picked beans, pecans, berries, tomatoes, corn, peppers...I mentioned this before..but grandfather had a (what he liked to call) little garden, but 20 acres is a lot of work. Whole family came home for harvest. Men picked, women canned. Gave surpluses to food banks...fought over who got the extra can of green beans. Lots of baking and fishing in there too. Didn't get paid a dime, but it was some of the happiest work I have ever done. I didn't appreciate it near enough growing up.
adornosghost wrote:
Had some interesting discussion of scale yesterday...getting to energy "pay/go" will be about as much fun as with the federal budget as we are seeing similar levels of preparation for that outcome...
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
......no wonder you never see fat field workers........
adornosghost wrote:
Amen. A commenter at ZH recently noted that economics is a branch of thermodynamics.
Vonbek777 wrote:
Not necessarily - just someone who lived through GD1...
4shzl wrote:
Sure:
Why factories aren't efficient | Energy Bulletin
Lots of unions need busted. They are part of the problem
LBD, because their situation is hopeless, they've transformed their mission away from representing the working stiff and counter-balancing the much, much more powerful employer and towards doing whatever they can to hang on. You should watch the second season of the wire if you want to understand what many unions have been forced to become.
Now, don't forget that your republican friends would really love to have a zillion illegal immigrants in the country (why do you think bush didn't take care of this problem when he was in power?), regulatory laws removed, civil rights legislation repealed, minimum wage laws eliminated, and unions busted and/or laws protecting collective bargaining agreements repealed or unenforced. They'll feed you all kinds of lines about unions being inherently evil and free market forces needing to be unrestricted to work to get this done.
Ask yourself this. If the Republicans think that government regulation is evil and that individuals should be allowed to make their own way, but also that individuals who happen to be workers banding together to represent their interests as a solid block to their employers are evil and should be eliminated, what kind of institution does that leave? Companies and wealthy individuals who are big enough that they don't need to band together to get enough power to be heard. Who gets to band together and protect their interests, in the republican's eyes? Companies banding together, creating monopolistic trusts. You never hear about how badly you're fucked by archer daniels midland, fixing your commodity prices. Who are you more afraid of, a bunch of dumb-fuck union workers with no money in a dying industry or the real holders of power and wealth, the people who control your food and your congress?
Don't buy into anti-union propaganda. I seem to be mentally retarded right now for some reason and unable to compose properly, but some time when I'm not incapacitated I will go into the union thing further.
February 18, 2010
"The United Kingdom’s Office for National Statistics announced on Feb. 18 a 1.2 billion-pound ($1.87 billion) surplus in January, adding that London had to borrow 4.3 billion pounds ($6.7 billion) because of a steep decline in income tax and capital gains tax payments, with a sharp increase in interest payments to cover governmental debt."
Vonbek777 wrote:
one day, and that day seems to be approaching, you/we will learn to appreciate it again
4shzl wrote:
Except that the government can change the rules of economics. There are uncertainties that simply do not exist in thermodynamics.
4shzl wrote:
I wondered about that looking at this: (phd in Theoretical Physics from Caltech!)
Sean Hamidi - LinkedIn
4shzl wrote:
"Yet there’s also a broader context here, which Schumacher addressed only indirectly, and which has only been hinted at in this post – the need to redefine our notions of economics to make sense in the real world, and above all, to respond to the most economically important of the laws of physics. Yes, those would be the laws of thermodynamics. "
Black Star Ranch wrote:
c'mon BSR, just like fat guys drove slicks and skinny guys drove guns
the fat guys work in the warehouse
adornosghost wrote:
Thanks. I'm taking the printer-friendly version to work with me this morning.
adornosghost writes:
That is real time energy--
We have been using stored energy, in ancient sunlight.
Living real time will be interesting again, that is his point.
Tap some of the energy that radiates from our sun in a more active manner, rather than passively absorbing the minuscule fraction of whatever happens to make it through our atmosphere, and we could have enough energy on this planet, in "real time," to vaporize the entire mass of the planet. People who think we have an energy crisis, that without oil we have to return to toiling like some kind of stupid apes, are simply not thinking big enough. Nuclear power as a stopgap, solar sats and extra-terrestrial power accumulation for the long run. There is no shortage of energy in the universe, just look in the goddamn sky.
The notion that unions are THE problem is bogus. Unionism has been declining for decades while at the same time our eCONomic and financial problems were ballooning.
Bad debt IS the problem.
Gold futures are up $7 and change....not down as per Market Watch.
The dollar is heading down....
Mr Slippery wrote:
Not in any way that can affect the outcome -- entropy.
I was snarking, and yes you are right...GD 1, great grandma's first husband disappeared. Managed to find work with AT&T and later Southwestern Bell. But it was hard times. She gardened, quilted, cooked...from sunup to sundown...quilted while working as an operator...multitasking even back then. Both my grandmother and grandfather worked for SW Bell too...and the three of them pinched every penny and grew as much of their food as they could. Grandfather fished on Saturdays...main meat source was fish. I don't know when they ever slept.
Is there a T-bill auction today? N/M Google knows all.
Powered by Google Docs
talking to myself, this graph on pension fund allocations in US vs other countries
NPR: U.S. Pension Funds Big On Stocks
When on the odd occasion that i'll have a campfire in the back of beyond, I reckon that it takes one minute to burn through 1 year of stored energy from the sun in the wood i'm using...
Nanoo-Nanoo wrote:
NPR: U.S. Pension Funds Big On Stocks
We're a nation of riverboaters . . .
I've added a new metric to my unemployment claims chart, the "Job Engine Oscillator". This is experimental, and needs some tweaking, but basically it ranges from 0 to 100% based on whether the U.E. claims are at the high end of their range (for a given week in the year, for years 2006-present) or the low end. A healthy job engine will score near 100% - claims at the low end of the range - and conversely, a weak engine will score 0% - claims setting new highs.
The current Job Engine Oscillator is at 43%, down from 54% last week but in the same general range that we've been for the past few weeks.
New chart is online at Investing for Sustainable Gains
You've said it pretty damn well so far, Hoops. Much better than I could have.
Keep up the good work.
4shzl wrote:
And it's nonlinear, nonequilibrium, chaotic thermodynamics, my friend.
Top 400 Earners in U.S Averaged $345 Million in 2007, IRS Says - Bloomberg.com
Feb. 18 (Bloomberg) -- The 400 highest-earning U.S. households reported an average of $345 million in income in 2007, up 31 percent from a year earlier, IRS statistics show.
The average tax rate for the households fell to the lowest in almost 20 years.
The figures for 2007, the last year of an economic expansion, show that the average income reported by the top 400 earners more than doubled from $131.1 million in 2001. That year, Congress adopted tax cuts urged by then-President George W. Bush that Democrats say disproportionately benefits the wealthy.
Each household in the top 400 of earners paid an average tax rate of 16.6 percent,the lowest since the agency began tracking the data in 1992, the Internal Revenue Service statistics show. Their average effective tax rate was about half the 29.4 percent in 1993, the first year of President Bill Clinton’s administration, when taxes were increased.
The statistics underscore “two long-term trends: that income at the very top has exploded and their taxes have been cut dramatically,” said Chuck Marr, director of federal tax policy at the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, a Washington research group that supports increasing taxes on high-income individuals.
.....
SNAFU wrote:
The "theoretical" is the problem here. The U.S. has been overproducing theoretical Ph.D.s and sending them to Wall Street. The experimentalists are the ones with a grasp of reality; the others are generally overly credulous in dealing with their own theories...
The "theoretical" is the problem here. The U.S. has been overproducing theoretical Ph.D.s and sending them to Wall Street. The experimentalists are the ones with a grasp of reality; the others are generally overly credulous in dealing with their own theories...
Yup. My Dad is a physicist (experiment type) and has noted this trend among physicists and mathematicians for years.
Mr Slippery wrote:
No, they cannot change the rules of economics. They can just change the state of the thermodynamic system, at a high cost. Uncertainty about the government's directly suppresses entrepreneurial job creation and breeds recession.
Wisdom Speaker wrote:
commenter at ZH recently noted that economics is a branch of thermodynamics.
And it's nonlinear, nonequilibrium, chaotic thermodynamics, my friend.
And it is still a discipline waiting for its' Feynman. Heck, they haven't even had their Watts yet.
Hoopajoops LTD wrote:
You're doing fine, dear.
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
With oil, we are burning through 10,000 years of stored energy a day.
Anyone see a problem here?
Gotta get back to the real world again.
With oil, we are burning through 10,000 years of stored energy a day.
Anyone see a problem here?
Nope.
Hoopajoops LTD wrote:
We shall see, my technocopian friend.
Wisdom Speaker wrote:
I'm sure the
has a formula that dispenses with that risk...
Economics is not science. The fundamental laws of physics, chemistry, etc, don't radically change every few years. New theories are built to augment the previous ideas, but you don't see the wholesale churn that occurs in the social "sciences". After all these years, F still equal ma.
The U.S. has been overproducing theoretical Ph.D.s and sending them to Wall Street.
Another fine example of FIRE sucking the marrow out of our bones.
Wisdom Speaker wrote:
Me too. Thanks to all for an instructive morning.
Hoopajoops LTD wrote:
Hoops, but this is why we aren't going there. I fully believe we have reached a point where technology advancement is being purposely controlled. The implications of misuse are staggering and I don't think the people who make the decisions are ready to deal with the consequences. Just my two cents...by the way...how is the anger working for you? Does it empower you? I have found anger makes me feel better but it does not provide a conduit for critical thinking...it does however provide an instinctual level of thinking that usually cuts through all the bullshit and provides a clarity of its own.
Morning metaobservation. Is the Euro a superior currency because it is a promise made by eleven more socialist governments than is the US dollar?
Me three.
Moody's downgrades Sacramento County ratings
| Reuters
Lobbying Spending Database | OpenSecrets
Rough math, business lobbying about $25billion, labor lobbying about $400million.
Who effed this country?
Hoopajoops LTD wrote:
The question isn't whether the energy is there or not - or even the concept of SPS which have been bruited about since the '60s - it is the necessary investment in infrastructure to make it happen, not only in bringing down the juice but then the electrification of the economy which is currently tied to liquid transportation fuels.
Read this part carefully - even if SPS technology were proven today - from our current state this is the work of a couple of decades to accomplish.
Before you flail out at me Hoops, we are aligned on the end state and the need for movement, particularly with respect to opening the bottle (read: extra-planetary resources). However, IMNSHO making it happen starts from recognizing the scale of the undertaking.
Vonbek777 wrote:
Technology is not energy. More technology does not effect the First Law.
Nuke wrote:
I did not think that worked at the quantum level? Perhaps we are in the era of quantum economics? The lack of transparency in CDS seems very Heisenberg to me.
The tiny part of it that resembles a science, yes. The rest is closer to priests reading chicken entrails in ancient Rome.
We shall see, my technocopian friend.
Haven't heard anything convincing out of you to the contrary. Do you deny that there is a big goddamn ball of energy in our sky? Does it not exist in your world? Do you think that after the oil runs out we're all going to throw up our hands and say, "oh well, game over!" and pick up the nearest stick and start hitting people with it for breeding rights? What kind of scenario do you envision here, where we run out of oil energy and then simply refuse to use nuclear or to launch satellites to capture more energy from the sun and beam it down here as microwaves? I am curious about how you see it playing out. After oil, the future of humanity will play out kind of like two thirsty, retarded toddlers beating each other to death for a teacup of water beside an above-ground swimming pool, from the sound of it.
sorry OT but highly amusing Lexus possessed...call the Ghost hunters. I couldn't not share it.
YouTube - Lexus Possessed Steering Wheel
Nanoo-Nanoo wrote:
Cue Dr. Phil "How's that working out for you?"
shill wrote:
Probably a reaction to the burgeoning city and county financing/corruption scandals. Go Sacbee!
Hoopajoops LTD wrote:
Our primate ancestors picked up the stick tens of millions of years ago and no one has dropped it yet.
Can't wait for 2011 - the year of MFF!
greenchutes wrote:
Our primate ancestors picked up the stick tens of millions of years ago and no one has dropped it yet.
Yes - whatever they called it, they invented money.
Jd,
I am about to board a 3 hour flight and I have in hand a copy of "The Great Depression - A Diary" based on the excerpts you have posted here recently.
I will post my impressions later today. Happy dooming all.
I'm sorry I thought we were discussing orbiting solar collectors which would involve technology...did I not read carefully enough...sorry I haven't had my coffee yet...
Nanoo-
To show how the level of debate in this country has deteriorated- a move by the administration to offer annuities to investors in 401k plans - is treated as a gigantic conspiracy to force investors into Treasury securities or some kind of confiscation.
Seems to me people should have the choice of buying an annuity from the Federal Government or from a private insurer.
Amen greechutes. Today, right now, women still have not reached pay parity with their male counterparts. Oh well. So much for human progress, we're still nothing but a bunch of naked apes.
Of course people are touchy - we've had Peronist leadership for a decade now, so pension confiscation in the near future isn't an abstract thought.
Blackhalo:
That was my point. For 99.99% of applications, F=ma works. Those who came later noticed that on some scales, it didn't and sought to build a new branch of physics that explained the phenomena they observed. This process is very different than the social sciences, where new, contradictory theories are generated every few years bearing little resemblance to physical reality. Remember, the folks at NakedCapitalism and Phil Krugman believe deficits don't matter, despite thousands of years of evidence to the contrary.
The battle of the sexes is in an interesting new phase what with the thread topic.
Most men are now useless as homemakers and breadwinners. Fishes and bicycles indeed.
Nanoo-Nanoo, women won't reach pay parity with males until we either relieve them of the burden of bearing children through some technological means, or institute a law that states that the male partner of every conception must spend an equal amount of time off work as the female partner spends for the purpose of conceiving and rearing each child. There is no way around a 1 year hole in a woman's career progress and its effects on her income, even if women were treated absolutely the same in all regards.
Nuke wrote:
frankly it should be the department of Economics and Astrology. They are both about equally valid.
Vonbek777 wrote:
We were, I was just pointing out the thermodynamics behind the problem.
Magical thinking is fun, and sometimes productive, but one must eventually come to terms with Energy Returned On Energy Invested.
1 year? You're showing your age, hoops.
Yes, my wife was back to work in 7 weeks, and she worked from home during those seven weeks. Now 2nd child, she stayed home for six weeks, and then went back on a half day schedule for six more...and worked from home.
greenchutes, I'm pulling an average out of my ass, accounting for mexican nannies, c-sections, and workaholics.
Except that Astrology is the hobby of kings, going back thousands of years, giving birth to Astronomy and serving as an inspiring template for all thinigs mystic. FWIW, the only real player I know in finance pays for a Vedic chart every year.
Economics is more like Phrenology.
GDX is your friend today.
I wish the IMF would post a sale everyday!
Nothing wrong with pulling #s out of one's ass if they're reasonably close - you just forgot the zero at the end.
Looks like the old correlation between sinking dollar and rising stocks is still in effect. Luckily for the public, oil is rising as well.
energyecon wrote:
Hard not to appreciate the bottlenecks and logjams, ee.
greenchutes, I know of no women who have taken anywhere near 10 years off work to raise children. None.
Nuke wrote:
If crude hits $200, we're going to see some real
. If it happens, it may well coincide with U6>25%.
eh, never mind.
From the pie-getting-ever-larger crowd @ Bubblevision, "WalMart sales declines, the first ever in their storied history, could be due to their shoppers TRADING UP!"
How about fewer WMT customers got another UI extension ? That sounds at least a little more plausible.
We dreamers like to continually slam ourselves against brick walls...
It helps get the creative juices flowing.
The problem is we aren't allowed anymore to procreate without it being a gigantic negative if you look into your future and see that black hole which is the cost of raising a child. The poor procreate much faster as their expectations for themselves and for their children are very low, mortality is high, education among the poor traditionally subpar as is access to health care.
I've learned one thing in my life, you really cannot do it all and have it all...at least all at once. I had lower expectations for my life than was actualized. Part of that was luck, part of that was planning, part of that was working my tail off and discipline. More and more couples and women are opting not to have children.
Hoops, that says more about your experience than anything else.
Trust me, plenty of professional women drop out in their late 30s (or even early 40s, which is horrible on a health basis) to have babies, then ease back into the workforce a decade later. These are the ladies that unemployed young bucks like you should be seeking out.
So we find amongst the data that the core PPI only up marginally but the food/energy PPI component up significantly.
That really gave me a pause since I'm only seeing the gas price bump around here within a narrow band, so it has to be food. Expect more of that as the herds continue to be thinned and sugar continues to rise.
This is deflationary, right?
I should call my congressman's finance staffer back and remind him of our pre-TARP phone conversation in which I told him to take the depression - it's coming anyway - and save the currency.
As to teen labor, we still have it here as those 15 + can get their work certs from the school district and pick tomatoes. Also have a good friend who picked berries and veggies with migrants at some local farms. He learned a lot about porn from the single migrant workers.
Hoopajoops LTD wrote:
Hoops, that's not up to you to decide. And BTW, the "we relieve them" language is literally patronizing. In any case, you're not going to make headway with this crowd. it's another flame war in the making.
bearly wrote:
How about fewer WMT customers got another UI extension ? That sounds at least a little more plausible.
Who do you want to believe? The HappiHeads™ in CNBC or the state by state sales tax reporting?
Looks like the old correlation between sinking dollar and rising stocks is still in effect. Luckily for the public, oil is rising as well.
From the pie-getting-ever-larger crowd @ Bubblevision, "WalMart sales,declines the first ever in their storied history, could be due to their shoppers TRADING UP!"
Really? They said that? The upper scale retailers (from Target to Macy's) all all doing worse. Traditional supermarkets are getting crushed.
greenchutes wrote:
If that happens, my guess is that seemingly overnight we will convert to a CNG economy, with some dislocations, but overall with good results, not to mention starve the jihadi bankers We have plenty of NG, I am told.
Quite some time back in this thread, Nanoo wrote:
State retirement benefit promises exceeded pension funds, study finds - washingtonpost.com
and
The Trillion Dollar Gap - The Pew Center on the States
tncubsfan wrote:
I wonder - when oil and
trade, what is really trading? Methinks it may well be the dollar as an explicit store of value, and that forex is just a
.
wrt UE claims going back up...
Hope you had a nice rest during the break there. Here we go trudging up the mountain once again.
meh, whats a trillion here and there? snark/
scone, put the word "economic" in between the and burden in the sentence "we relieve them of the burden" to get my meaning. I mean that bearing (and often uncompensated, disproportionate responsibility for raising) children has economic costs that are partially responsible for wage differentials between women and men. I don't understand how you can find that insulting, it's a fact. Taking time out of your career to do that stuff will have an impact on your wages.
Has the IMF run out of veiled threats as far as the barbarous is concerned?
...the market seems to think so
I learned yesterday that I will get some furlough action. Will probably start in April, along with a [temporary] wage freeze.
2009: Oh no, it's a furlough.
2010: Thank goodness, it's a furlough.
TBT 50 DMA about to break over it's 200...this is bullish, right? Right? Bueller?
Hoops, it is the sentence structure that is offensive. Womenfolk can be a bit touchy about that first person plural, the same first person plural that might deign to tell them all sorts of things about what "they" think is best for a woman's body. The more melanin-endowed people on our planet can have a similar reaction to these syntactical structures.
OT but not:
Daimler Has Unexpected Loss, Plans to Cancel Dividend (Update3) - Bloomberg.com
Target is "upper scale retailer"? Target is killing the grocery chains around my area. Yogurt is $0.89 with your shoppers club card. At Target do you know how much it is? $0.52; and I don't need to get a shoppers card to get that price!
Die store cards die!
some investor guy wrote:
You're looking for work in the wrong country. Come to Asia....
As to men and housework.
Honestly, there's going to be an adjustment here akin to the years of the "women's lib" movement. Women will reach pay parity with men, and might have already done so amongst some income classes. Men are perfectly capable of caring for kids and running the household but everything is skewed through the lens of past experiences. The social view of men/husbands/fathers has diminished dramatically with the advent of Homer Simpson and Al Bundy and it's gonna take years to overcome that, coupled with the reality that most men grew up in a time that they didn't have to pay attention and learn about the household like women did. And men are gonna have to wake up to the new realities of the world around us.
Fish and bicycles? Bullshit.
YLSP wrote:
The best immigration group around. (in case you didn't know)
www.numbersusa.com
They get some of my money each year. They are sane and compassionate, yet recognize our immigration policies don't benefit citizens. And they have a real impact on Congress.
I think $200 oil is very unlikely to happen in the next 1 to 5 years. Even
knows that society as we know it would collapse at that price and it's effects on our society, people would be getting out the pitchforks 
The PTB and
will drive their blood funnel into oil and drive the price up to around $110 to $130 a barrel, maybe this summer, and extract as much wealth as they can out of the system. They have oil as a big target and know they can make money on it in both long positions and then short positions, depending on how they read the tea leaves
Rob Dawg wrote:
I'm sure they would like to convince their advertisers that they need to buy to grab a share of that "trading-up" market.
Why all the fuss about who's going to stay home with the baby. With our current employment scenario, there will always be someone home. Gender will not be the primary issue. It's going to be more and more a non-issue, at least as far as the trend is looking now.
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
JD, I tend to watch that out of self-interest. Market has seldom shown more than a passing interest in IMF pronouncements on the subject. They've been waving that particular jawbone about for so many years, I think it's now mistaken for a coke spoon.
Hoopajoops LTD wrote:
Yes. As both a physicist and an financial modeler, I can comment on this.
One of the most dangerous propositions ever to make its way to high school and college physics, and indeed to the Patent Office, is that there are no perpetual motion machines. From a physics standpoint, this is defensible. It is true that if you can manage to insulate a system against all potential forms of incoming energy, you can not have a perpetually running machine.
But, there is a danger. As one of my physics professors explained, you can have machines which run an arbitrarily long time without paying for energy, or going to any effort to supply it. You just need machines where the fuel or energy source keeps showing up. This kind of energy is all over the $%^&ing place. You simply need effective ways of harvesting it or channeling it. There are a huge number of naturally occuring forms of energy on our little planet which are far larger than what we get out of fossil fuels: wind, solar, lightning, internal heat of the earth, tides, etc.
Of course, if you're not looking to harness nearly perpetual sources of energy, because you didn't get the subtleties of perpetual motion, you're much less likely to find it.
Scone,
I have noticed a generational gap emerging from my wife's work experience. When she first arrived, we had no hope of advancement. There was blatant sexism from the older folks, both men and women actually. But a strange thing happened, my wife started accomplishing things, which for a government office is a miraculous occurance. The older folks started retiring...and a new boss came in who was results oriented. Actually told my wife she does more work in a day than 20 normal federal employees. So implementing project management...he has made her project manager for most projects, even ones with a higher grade phds working on it. This has ruffled some feathers, but she gets things done...so it is a compromise. The question is whether she will get a promotion. A desk audit has been put in...but HR is concerned about the effect it will have on other employees...if it works though...I might have a little more faith in people regarding women in the workplace.
Well, homedad, maybe you're the exception that proves the rule.
Most of the men I know, when they have a tough career spot (which is most of the men in this country as of this lovely February day) that finds them at home, sink pretty quickly into a sense of depression fueled by entitlement and frustration. Most men never really overcome the alpha-male paradigm, which just doesn't square with the literal handling of shit, which is a substantial part of the early childrearing experience. They think they are Drew Brees, not June Cleaver, and that self-image dies hard.
Blackhalo wrote:
I've noticed a lot of the cable channels running more "filler" commercials. Not just hair club for squirrels but self promotion spots.
Outsider wrote:
Good news, you get to keep your health care insurance benefits! Bad news, as a function of income, the costs just went up...
The idea that children can rear themselves is such BS. Having someone at home after school is essential, having someone at home for those developing years, too essential to put in the hands of strangers. I know economically, it was the only way in recent decades, particularly for middle class wage earners. But for all the 'family friendly' conservative talk-the policies were anything but. The little exchanges in the form of tax breaks amount to a insulting slap in the face compared with the ones given to corporations and top 5%.
Rob Dawg wrote:
The USSC ruling should be good from them though in election season...
Hoopajoops LTD wrote:
Yeah, really. This little financial crisis problem we have is going to look like small beans when we get to the real-time energy one.
Hoopajoops LTD wrote:
It's not for you to decide. That's the whole point. Economic parity is not your fight, and it's not something you can take or give. The mere fact that you assume men have all the power here and can "give" equal rights by fiat is very telling. Injustice exists. Your "right" to repair injustice according to your own values does not exist. Women will eventually come to pay parity on their own terms, thank you very much. And if they choose to do something like take time out from the workforce, that's up to them, not you. You don't own this revolution, you have no business dictating where it goes.
Vonbek777 wrote:
Don't get me wrong, putting what easy energy we have left into solar development is the best thing we can do with it.
Dreaming and thinking outside the box is needed.
Nanoo-Nanoo wrote:
The idea that children can rear themselves is such BS. Having someone at home after school is essential, having someone at home for those developing years, too essential to put in the hands of strangers.
Again, a key strategy here was to remove the bonding between parent and child that allows the child to inherit the parental worldview and values independent of the conditioning of mass media or socialization. Do you think it accidental that government became the big daddy warmonger and gambler, and nurturing, social-conditioning mommy state shortly after the nuclear family was split up due to economic necessity?
greenchutes wrote:
I will admit, I went through issues when I first decided to stop looking for a job. This was before our first child...but then a strange thing happened...I was able to put my energy into making sure my wife's needs were being met. That isn't just making sure the laundry gets done. With two people working, you are both dealing with emotional stress... with one, well it is easier to ratchet the stress level down. Being a say at home husband/father has turned out to be the best thing for our marriage/family.
Greenchutes:
But that self-image will eventually die. Like I said, it's going to take a long time and adjustment just like women have had to go through in the workplace. This is generational.
But that doesn't mean that men ultimately aren't capable of caring for the kids and running the household.
Vonbek777 wrote:
I will admit, I went through issues when I first decided to stop looking for a job
I've got three friends, all of high intelligence and a solid education, one of whom is basically stay-at-home dad and all of whom are outearned by their partner. One is a high school teacher in a small school with a wife that's an RN/therapist and the other two have attorney wives. Two of the guys were top debaters that made national semis or finals back in high school and all scored 90% or better on the college boards and have solid educations. They aren't stupid and don't lack ambition. Times are changing.
some investor guy wrote:
Aye, there's the rub...please fill in that blank - seriously, please do!
Hoopajoops LTD wrote:
....since when is raising and nurturing a small child a "1-year hole"concept? Have you discussed this with Polaroid or something?
Sorry again but I have a question I have yet to hear an answer about, hopefully someone can enlighten me. Who is buying all the debt?
We have debt, EU has debt, UK has debt, China is tightening and not buying, foreign sales are way down in the UST market...so who is??
Greek Debt ‘Twilight Zone’ Spurs Rise in Sovereign Credit Risk - Bloomberg.com
Black Star Ranch wrote:
Have you discussed this with Polaroid or something?
It's been so cold out here in Timbuktu that I almost got a polaroid just the other day.
Nanoo-Nanoo wrote:
> Sorry again but I have a question I have yet to hear an answer
lets say the government spends money- unemployment check. It credits somebodies bank account. The bank now has that money they turn around and buy government bonds which gives the government the money to spend. As long as the money stays in the "system" there is no problem. If J6P decides to take the money and stick in their mattress that is when the problems begin.
It follows from this that when people say "money left the market" they don't have the foggiest idea of what they speak. If I sell shares ("take money out") somebody has to buy them who puts in exactly the same amount of money as I took out. In the 70's when the oil producers had all the huge reserves everybody was worrying about what would happen if they took their money out of US banks. The question that never occurred was what would they do with it? Put it in a European bank who would then lend it to a U.S. Bank.
It also illustrates why it is so important to have a lender of last resort. In my above example the European bank could elect to just leave the money at the Federal Reserve. If that happened the Fed would need to lend the money to a US bank