Headlines are all over the place. My favorite is this one from Bloomberg (http://www.bloomberg.com): "U.S. Personal Spending, Incomes Rise, Suggesting Consumers to Buoy Economy". This seems fairly ridiculous on Roubini Thursday...
What they miss in the headline number on consumer spending is the revision to September's number: originally reported as +.01, revised to -.02. For October, the market expected .01 and got .02. But with the revision, basically spending was flat for the last 60 days...
I can't say I ever paid attention to revisions, but it seems they tell the story in a changing market. I guess the time to go long is when most of the revisions are positive.
Check out Tim Iacono's writing on his personal experience with HELOC debt, "Let's light this candle". It's great & his punch line is even better: "Financial innovation at its best." The Mess That Greenspan Made: Let's Light this Candle
Don't forget your Festivus Pole while your at it. BTW what distinguishe a roubini wreath? Would it be lumps of coal glued to a ring shapes clump of rapidly devaluing dollars?
Looks like the bond market may have made up its mind on the economy.
Hey ac - I ski... XC, some downhill even tele... but in my wildest youth I stayed away from slopes like that 6m-2yr... yikes, a guy could break his neck on that!
Metro, I was thinking more of a wreath shaped like an upside down house with a cute little rabid grizzly tucked into the bow, but your idea is good, too . . .
We must not forget the yin with the yang now people... after thinking about ac's pointer to Bloomberg's Bond Yield page (very ugly BTW)... I started thinking (I know, bad sign)... has anyone informed the PBoC or the BoJ about all this negativity?
I mean if they really are buying MBS & treasuries like crazy... and will continue to do so even as consumers here cut back on their HELOCs and such (see Bailey's link to Iocono's post)... what's next? How low can the long bond go?
I ask this for two reasons (1) curiosity and (2) I own bonds. The interest in seeking answers isn't necessarily evenly weighted between the two.
Realize as we contemplate all this, the trains haven't stop running from rural China to say Guangdong or Shanghai. Every year some thing like 20-30 million migrate from rural China to those coastal cities looking for work... it is the largest migration the world has ever seen... and they haven't got the memos from the Fed yet.
The stations are full every day, even on Roubini Thursday. Those folks EXPECT jobs when they arrive. I mean THAT is what all this has been about (it wasn't about us at all).
I know it is a lot easier to just focus on our own navels but there are a lot of others looking at our navels also.
That is why this damned thing is so hard to predict.
Its great that even after this negative news day the dow drops and then pops right back up into positive territory. What other news are investors waiting for? Who are driving up these prices?
Add to the mound the one about the revision of employee compensation being adjusted down from 7.4 to 1.4% Lotsa income that was factored into the soft landing just vanished.
Anon - Its great that even after this negative news day the dow drops and then pops right back up into positive territory. What other news are investors waiting for? Who are driving up these prices?
Maybe the PBOC has decided to move on to the stock market. Its a hell of an easier way to produce a wealth effect.
Regarding the strange behavior of the stock market (or housing market for that matter)in light of all the "good" news: it is my understanding that most macroeconomic theories regarding market behavior are crucially dependent on the assumption of large groups of rational-acting HUMANS making decisions based on all available information.
Hhhhhhmmmmmm......
On a completely unrelated note, I had to help a cashier the other day with a 10%-off-stated-price calculation.
Well, off to read my horoscope!
"We have entered a period when initial claims are unreliable due to distortions tied to seasonal issues, and it is unlikely that they will reflect labor-market fundamentals until January or February," said Omair Sharif of RBS Greenwich Capital."
Oh come on! Then why bother collecting and publishing the data at all? Sheesh.
The stockmarket crashed, housing investment boomed.
The housing market crashes, stockmarket investment booms.
What's there to understand? It's just capital flowing into the next asset class de jour.
Just an aside from a someone born and raised in Chicago: on a recent trip home I found myself driving over the skyway that links Indiana to the South Side of Chicago. As I approached from the Indiana side at night, all I could see was the massive glow of refinery towers and checmical factories along the water. The smell of pollution in the air was overwhelming. In fact it is so bad in this area, the toll booths are all automated. Rolling down your window to pay the toll presents a health risk.
Home Depot abruptly shelved a much-touted plan to improve customer service by hiring more store-level employees - just a month after rolling it out, The Post has learned.
[...]
Rather than hiring additional employees, all stores - even those $40-million-plus high-volume locations - were told to cut staff hours by 200 per week because of falling sales.
The reason? Sales were falling short of internal projections, the result of a housing market that had stopped booming.
I guess we could call today "Roubini Thursday".
LOL! And in honor of that the 'Special' today is cold leftover take-out pizza and the 'Last of Thanksgiving' Turkey Soup.
Good one CR.
Nattering naybobs of Nouriel Roubini.... I mean negativity. Oh well same thing
Headlines are all over the place. My favorite is this one from Bloomberg (http://www.bloomberg.com): "U.S. Personal Spending, Incomes Rise, Suggesting Consumers to Buoy Economy". This seems fairly ridiculous on Roubini Thursday...
Roubini gets the whole day and our own charts only gets 15 minutes?
Now if you'll excuse me I need to go hang my Roubini Wreath on the front door. That ought to cheer up the ol' HOA Nazis.
Dan,
What they miss in the headline number on consumer spending is the revision to September's number: originally reported as +.01, revised to -.02. For October, the market expected .01 and got .02. But with the revision, basically spending was flat for the last 60 days...
I can't say I ever paid attention to revisions, but it seems they tell the story in a changing market. I guess the time to go long is when most of the revisions are positive.
Check out Tim Iacono's writing on his personal experience with HELOC debt, "Let's light this candle". It's great & his punch line is even better: "Financial innovation at its best."
The Mess That Greenspan Made: Let's Light this Candle
The yield curve is getting interesting today:
Bloomberg.com:
Government Bonds
Looks like the bond market may have made up its mind on the economy.
Hey Tanta,
Don't forget your Festivus Pole while your at it. BTW what distinguishe a roubini wreath? Would it be lumps of coal glued to a ring shapes clump of rapidly devaluing dollars?
Looks like the bond market may have made up its mind on the economy.
Hey ac - I ski... XC, some downhill even tele... but in my wildest youth I stayed away from slopes like that 6m-2yr... yikes, a guy could break his neck on that!
Metro, I was thinking more of a wreath shaped like an upside down house with a cute little rabid grizzly tucked into the bow, but your idea is good, too . . .
We must not forget the yin with the yang now people... after thinking about ac's pointer to Bloomberg's Bond Yield page (very ugly BTW)... I started thinking (I know, bad sign)... has anyone informed the PBoC or the BoJ about all this negativity?
I mean if they really are buying MBS & treasuries like crazy... and will continue to do so even as consumers here cut back on their HELOCs and such (see Bailey's link to Iocono's post)... what's next? How low can the long bond go?
I ask this for two reasons (1) curiosity and (2) I own bonds. The interest in seeking answers isn't necessarily evenly weighted between the two.
Realize as we contemplate all this, the trains haven't stop running from rural China to say Guangdong or Shanghai. Every year some thing like 20-30 million migrate from rural China to those coastal cities looking for work... it is the largest migration the world has ever seen... and they haven't got the memos from the Fed yet.
The stations are full every day, even on Roubini Thursday. Those folks EXPECT jobs when they arrive. I mean THAT is what all this has been about (it wasn't about us at all).
I know it is a lot easier to just focus on our own navels but there are a lot of others looking at our navels also.
That is why this damned thing is so hard to predict.
Any ideas?
Sure Dryfly, Put your money in Ford Interest Advantage notes & go skiing.
Thanks bailey - I'll do just that! LOL.
Does anyone still take Roubini seriously?
Its great that even after this negative news day the dow drops and then pops right back up into positive territory. What other news are investors waiting for? Who are driving up these prices?
Seems like "Roubini Thursday" should be a big down day...
Vader's favorite headline:
MBIA Debt Backed by Crack Houses
Add to the mound the one about the revision of employee compensation being adjusted down from 7.4 to 1.4% Lotsa income that was factored into the soft landing just vanished.
Anon - Its great that even after this negative news day the dow drops and then pops right back up into positive territory. What other news are investors waiting for? Who are driving up these prices?
Maybe the PBOC has decided to move on to the stock market. Its a hell of an easier way to produce a wealth effect.
Regarding the strange behavior of the stock market (or housing market for that matter)in light of all the "good" news: it is my understanding that most macroeconomic theories regarding market behavior are crucially dependent on the assumption of large groups of rational-acting HUMANS making decisions based on all available information.
Hhhhhhmmmmmm......
On a completely unrelated note, I had to help a cashier the other day with a 10%-off-stated-price calculation.
Well, off to read my horoscope!
"We have entered a period when initial claims are unreliable due to distortions tied to seasonal issues, and it is unlikely that they will reflect labor-market fundamentals until January or February," said Omair Sharif of RBS Greenwich Capital."
Oh come on! Then why bother collecting and publishing the data at all? Sheesh.
"We have entered a period when initial claims are unreliable ... said Omair Sharif of RBS Greenwich Capital."
He should stick to making movies and leave the economic stuff to somebody else.
A Sink?
Winter (Economic and Market) Watch » A Sink? Where’s the Love?
The stockmarket crashed, housing investment boomed.
The housing market crashes, stockmarket investment booms.
What's there to understand? It's just capital flowing into the next asset class de jour.
Just an aside from a someone born and raised in Chicago: on a recent trip home I found myself driving over the skyway that links Indiana to the South Side of Chicago. As I approached from the Indiana side at night, all I could see was the massive glow of refinery towers and checmical factories along the water. The smell of pollution in the air was overwhelming. In fact it is so bad in this area, the toll booths are all automated. Rolling down your window to pay the toll presents a health risk.
A genuine dystopia.
umber2son - that's one of my favorite drives, especially late at night (say 3 AM)... the glow makes me think that is what Mordor must be like...
The condos they are talking about are way north of that - Near North, Grant Park & just West of the Loop. Not bad at all.
Russ Winter - that link you listed was very good. Did you read the link to the NYP piece on HD?
SALES FALLOFF KILLS STAFF-INCREASE PLAN
Home Depot abruptly shelved a much-touted plan to improve customer service by hiring more store-level employees - just a month after rolling it out, The Post has learned.
[...]
Rather than hiring additional employees, all stores - even those $40-million-plus high-volume locations - were told to cut staff hours by 200 per week because of falling sales.
The reason? Sales were falling short of internal projections, the result of a housing market that had stopped booming.