HAMP: 116,000 Permanent Mods, Over 1,000 Permanent Mods Cancelled
Submitted by
CalculatedRisk on Wed, 02/17/2010 - 1:20pm (230 comments)
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Permanent until payments stop
Apparently no one checks the article for blatant lies before publishing - the numbers dont add up... I would be totally embarrassed to have this cross my desk....
For over 1,000 borrowers, "permanent" meant a couple of months or less ...
best wishes
"considering those borrowers made all the trial modification payments "
Gramdma, can I borrow $1136 ?
Sure, but that's the last time.
ShadowInventory, remember the Treasury told servicers to keep just about everyone in the trial program until the end of January - whether they were delinquent or not. That is why the numbers don't add up.
I expect many trial modifications to fail in the February report
best wishes
The bottom line - for anyone who has a housing unit that they would like to sell, but dont absolutely have to sell, we are going to be stuck with them for several years yet.... meanwhile, do we put money into maintenance? I'm not doing any more improvements, but I'll have to do some maintenance... This is going to mess up my privileged position as a geez....
And dont get me started on what all these short sales are doing to the market...
Also - it is pretty amazing that 1,005 permanent modifications have already failed considering those borrowers made all the trial modification payments ... - CR
What's surprising? Repeat after me: "4.1 million existing home ownership arrangements cannot be saved."
If I ever performed like this, I'd be fired pronto, how many iterations is this now? One of my favorite hearings was that of a Neil Kashkari explaining how well the program was doing. Having never performed anywhere out of GS new math realm, he was lost. Now he is lost at PIMCO.
RD do you have any open bond positions? I am thinking of reducing bond exposure in anticipation of interest rate increases...
Permanent means something different than I thought.
My mod guy hasn't been offered anything so far; has made all his payments.
Rob, I expect a majority of these permanent mods to fail, but these are people that made at least three trial mod payments (probably more), and signed the agreements ... and then defaulted almost immediately. I'd expect people to last a little while longer ...
best wishes
My guy has made 6 payments.
RD,
You had one of the better ideas I read here. Solar panels. Put people to work refitting houses and biz. A lot of work for the trades and an actual ladder to those who need to start anew.
Where are you shadow?
Prices could be going down more, you know.
If it's possible for a blog to win a Pulitzer, I think CR should get one for his work on exposing what a shoddy piece of work HAMP was.
At least, I mean, he should be nominated.
Nobody in the MSM is tracking this story by the numbers, unless they read CR.
Oh wait...maybe Krugman will get the award instead.
"My guy has made 6 payments. "
Doesn't HAMP only require 3 payments. Perhaps he's being counted twice?
My guy has made 6 payments.
Where am I physically? Living in my rv in the Phoenix area at the moment... The house I would sell is in an area where prices are still going lower, and the current market is at about 40% of what I would accept for the house - and I would be giving away a whole lot of labor even at that... So I will remain Shadow Inventory for years apparently....
I think you are right liz. Some of the states thus far more insulated from RRE deflation may catch that miserable flu this year. This is the silent pandemic and there is no vaccine. Other 'resort' areas I think will see it first. But what the hell do I know.
I made eight before mine was final. I didn't finalize until Feb so mine is not in there yes.
ShadowInventory wrote:
I advise my mom and as usual I was early with the advice but as usual she is late following. I agree, there's a bond failure coming. FD, I am not shorting either. Not bonds, not Citi. I recognize the limitations of my running rational analysis on irrational events.
I don't see much danger in short term instruments and neither do a lot of other people but being stuck with 30y paper purchased at 104 that may be worth 84 this fall is not how "safe as bonds" is supposed to work.
You get an extra 3 months to show increase in income.
CalculatedRisk wrote:
Job loss and illness are two very likely reasons why a person stops paying.
just because you got a mod doesn't mean your life is going to be hunky-dory from then on. Bad stuff still happens to people that is beyond their control.
nova wrote:
Lot's of rebates and credits in that field already. I suspect there is far more supply than there is demand.
The time to strike on this was when the HELOC and cash out refi money was flowing IMHO. I have priced it out before, both for small starter systems and a big one, and it is all sticker shock to all but the most committed.
I present to you the proud seal of the Republic of Extendia:
I am in GNMA bond fund so I could sell anytime at the daily quote... I already have a huge cash position that is earning very close to zero - I think it's .02%... but the bond fund share price could drop fast if there is a perception that rates are going to rise.... and if that happened I would expect stocks to drop like a rock too, and the only place to be then would be in the money market funds... It's the timing that is the problem - if we go for another year without any rate increases that would cost a lot in lost bond interest....
Wasn't the Guvernator gonna do something about solar panel?
No Money now, I suppose.
ShadowInventory wrote:
I would argue, getting the FC into investors' hands is better for prices than have the weak bank hands trying to market themselves.
lawyerliz wrote:
Put them on top of the H2, and run the radio.
CaptainMorgan
I was thinking more of a gov program. Free for low income and old people. That kind of thing.
Ouch Ouch Ouch
Whiskey, yes ... and if this keeps up, we will probably see over 20% re-default within one year. I guess that seems about right ...
best wishes
CaptainMorgan wrote:
Working on the wife for this one, tied into a 12 volt system...in addition to wanting a natural gas powered standby generator - now that is portfolio diversification!
greenchutes wrote:
I present to you the proud seal of the Republic of Extendia:
nice, but you forgot the blue pills...
much better
ShadowInventory wrote:
Check the average duration on your GNMA fund. It may be as little as 7 years, which is not as bad as it could be.
You could also try to hedge it.
I fear we'd spend a bunch of money and then have
the damn system blow away.
I hope those blue pills are the extended release ones...
ducks and runs
Thanks, RIF, where would we be without SSRIs and Viagra, truly the foundations of our bold republic. And let's not forget the role played by Oxycodone in inspiring our few real beacons of true freedom left in the media.
Does this HAMP program have a budget? Is it all of the $800B stimulus ?
Nanoo-Nanoo wrote:
I hope those blue pills are the extended release ones...
Yes. Also, they double as pony skittles, suggestively located nearby.
nova wrote:
Probably make more sense to put them on government buildings as big arrays and not a bunch of small ones, and then subsidize the electric bills of the old and poor with the savings in electricity.
A large system is more economical than a bunch of small ones, and easier to maintain.
I would note the 30 year today hit 4.71%, so you are currently facing an incredibly steep yield curve, and should consider moving to short term treasuries. Of course, if you are brave, you buy a long bond fund, with a put on TLT sufficient to cover you for two years and collect the difference, about 2% per year, plus sell some calls along the way.
Someday this war's gonna end....
greenchutes wrote:
Thanks, RIF, where would we be without SSRIs and Viagra, truly the foundations of our bold republic.
Yes, and who knew dispensing powerful psychoactives to the populace would end so well?!
CaptainMorgan
Makes sense. Scale and all that...
ShadowInventory wrote:
Agree. I'm in the same slowly boiling pot. Low fixed returns are making it uncomfortable to not redeploy. The MMF is also not earning and now isn't even ensured against braking the buck (Fidelity so I actually doubt it though). CR called last march dead on. I think however this is another time of return of capital rather than return on capital. I do have some private loans out at usurious rates. The collapse of commercial lending in the small regionals has been a glodmine. Can't complain about low risk double digit returns on short notes back by proven business receipts.
Arguments about the general desirability of modifications aside, if 75% of the modified default later, is the program a "failure"?
How do you value the benefit to the 25%? How do you value the extra time given to the 75%? Would not having the program be an improvement?
I see we have "associate telephone sanitizer" on board.
Post something sanitizer, please.
ResistanceIsFeudal wrote:
Huxley?
Oh wait, that was a dystopia. I keep getting that mixed up...
We work hard for their money
So hard makin' honey
We work hard for their money
But they never treat us right
energyecon wrote:
There are lots of advantages and disadvantages to voltage, but I would personally go with a 48V system. Lots of 12v appliances and lights on the market though, thanks to the RV crowd though.
There are advantages and disadvantages to 48V systems as well, but they make a lot of sense.
Take your time and do your homework, and do what makes sense for your needs and wants.
There is no explanation in the report for what "canceled" permanent modifications means.
CR is assuming it means "failed" -- i.e., the homeowner failed to keep up payments.
But couldn't it also mean something else -- i.e., the mortgage servicer made an error or reneged on a deal that had been previously been reported as permanent?
Obviously, Timmy is not promoting a lot of transparency here.
"Oh wait, that was a dystopia."
Are you joking? I try to take a little soma holiday every day!
energyecon wrote:
Natural gas powered heat pump and generator combo. Also the best thing in the world is to have an electrician verify or install a full breaker that can isolate your home from the grid. Beats hell outta dozens of lossy extension cords.
1 currency now -yogi wrote:
I think HAMP has a been a failure, but think spreading out losses across the board over several years is a desired outcome at this point. Pick your poison, fast large nasty crash, or long drawn out grind.
Good point.
Manual or automatic transfer switch is what you want, separate breaker box is not necessary.
CaptainMorgan wrote:
And as we are now learning, if you don't choose, you get both!
I'd say hahaha, but it isn't funny.
"What happened to the other 240,000 modifications?"
Still living rent free.
I am not kidding.
sm_landlord wrote:
No one is joking. 118 million anti-depressants prescribed in 2005 in US.
CDC: Antidepressants most prescribed drugs in U.S. - CNN.com
People need to be allowed to be happy, not medicated into some happy trance.
"Also - it is pretty amazing that 1,005 permanent modifications have already failed considering those borrowers made all the trial modification payments ..."
Not amazing at all to me, easily half the people in HAMP are using it to game the system, they make their payments as long as they need to become "permanent", then redefault knowing it will take at least another 9 months to get to them, probably much longer.
At this point you could live in a place for 3 years, making only 3 months of HAMP mod payments.
It is all a scam and a complete waste of money.
Jonathan wrote:
Ever read Listening to Prozac ? The author argued that more people should be taking it.
"No one is joking. 118 million anti-depressants prescribed in 2005 in US."
Given the corruption in our society, is this surprising?
I have actually benefited from the corrupt system to some degree, and I am thinking of joining that 118m.
We took the dive for upgrading what was a pull start gasoline small generator to whole house auto start/stop propane. So far this winter, its been worked out far more than I anticipated (50 hours!) and what a dream. Our justification is without power we do not have water since we have a drilled well (we live rural). Interestingly enough, the price up until recently was more than our budget would allow. We got it installed for a price much lower and we also increased our propane supplies 4x. This ended up also being a fortuitous move as our supplier cut their drivers by 50% this year. So although the supplies might be available the trucks and personnel might not be. It is virtually seamless in operation and even exercises itself once a week. In the cold north, this is really nice to have.
"There is no explanation in the report for what "canceled" permanent modifications means.
CR is assuming it means "failed" -- i.e., the homeowner failed to keep up payments.
But couldn't it also mean something else -- i.e., the mortgage servicer made an error or reneged on a deal that had been previously been reported as permanent?"
Good point, it is hard to know what that means. Could be re-default, though it would clearer if it just said that.
Rob Dawg wrote:
you sweet talker, you...
Jonathan wrote:
No one is joking. 118 million anti-depressants prescribed in 2005 in US.
Exactly correct. I've argued the point before, one of my first forays into CR commentary in earnest, actually. Our immaturity, narcissism and enforced psychological adolescence isn't just due to a cultural abyss or an exploitative financial capitalist regime...
The majority of permanent modifications –57.4% –are helping people who are coping with unemployment or who have seen a reduction in hours or wages.
This suggests a large percentage (42.6%) of permanent mods went to households with significant income to lose.
Nanoo how much did that system cost and what is the generator capacity?
ghostfaceinvestah wrote:
But a waste of who's money? The banks get paid by the government, the occupant lives free. Another win-win-lose, like those PPIP
's.
But who cares about Joe the Mortgage Mod Gamer:
Jamie Dimon: $17 million bonus
JPM other: Big Bonuses
NY FED: $4 billion loss from BS Portfolio
Jamie Dimon: Director, NY Fed
If you want to talk gaming, talk about the top of the pyramid.
"and then defaulted almost immediately. I'd expect people to last a little while longer ..."
Not me, I expect a lot more to default almost immediately after getting a "permanent" mod. those people go right back into the delinquent inventory pile after re-defaulting; at least with most servicers, there is not separate treatment for "re-defaulted" loans, so it will take another 9 months min to get to them again.
i.e, in most servicing systems, once you are made "permanent", your delinquency status goes back to "current", then once you redefault it starts again at 30 days late, then 60, etc. the servicers are too busy dealing with the 180+ delinquencies to bother with the 30 days.
This is how you game the system to maximize free rent.
They don't count.
ghostfaceinvestah wrote:
What percentage do you think are gaming it?
ghostfaceinvestah wrote:
Will you write a instructional pamphet so I can hand it out to all the homeowners in the neighborhood? I might also send a few to President Obama, Ben Bernacke, and Alex Trebec.
Just on the side-effects, one of our friends who was fairly depressed, got on prozac and about 2 weeks in, has now pulled out of her dive and gone house-buying.
I'd be wary of making big financial decisions hopped up on pharmaceuticals, but there ya go.
Honestly, I can't remember but under 5K (just barely and yes paid cash) to get the generator installed and the propane supplies (including cost of the increased capacity in gas). We wanted a 14KW/hr system but got installed a 17KW system for the price of just the 14 generator alone (uninstalled). We are also getting the remote but its been back ordered for months and we're still waiting for it. That way, if we expect an extended period of time without electrical service, we can shut it down at night without having to trudge through the snow and cold to save gas. 17KW means only a few items in the house cannot be run. It keeps the hot water heater going which is really wonderful. Cannot operate the range/oven or the clothes drier. The other big plus is we don't have to worry about running our electronics with this vs the old gas undersized generator.
ghostface, I'm not sure that is correct. When you sign the mod you are signing that they can take the house on a default without notice of any kind.
sm_landlord wrote:
Ever read Listening to Reality?
No, because that one doesn't exist.
Jonathan wrote:
I'd be wary of making big financial decisions hopped up on pharmaceuticals, but there ya go.
If we have a society that requires millions to take potent psychoactives just to function 'normally', there is either a problem with 'normal' or there is a problem with society. Or both.
"I'll take Gaming the System for $2000, Alex."
"According to this CR commentator, HAMP allows people to stay in homes an extra 9 months rent free."
"Who is Jas Jain."
BBBBZZZZZZZ.
"Who is ghostfaceinvestah?"
Correct.
ResistanceIsFeudal wrote:
I dare say both, and have had held that view for a very long time.
mp wrote:
No money in it for Big Pharma and the Shrinks.
edit: Hey, that would be a great name for a trance band!
thank you, Kristina, for setting the record straight. All this talk of "gaming" is bunk.
It may say that, but they still have to file foreclosure in Florida.
"When you sign the mod you are signing that they can take the house on a default without notice of any kind."
Not much difference from a regular mortgage, they "can" take the house without notice. Except to the extent state laws kick in, which they would in a mod or a new loan. i.e if you go from current to delinquent status, they can start proceedings to boot you out immediately, and depending on the state, you will be out in 6 to 18 months, probably longer with court backups in judicial states.
So, no difference between signing a mortgage today, and signing a mod today.
Now, what they "will" do depends on the servicer, but trust me, your modified delinquent loan that is 60 days late is not being treated any differently than a non-modified loan that is 60 days late.
Reality is for people who don't have good prescription coverage.
Crazy HAMP.
"It may say that, but they still have to file foreclosure in Florida. "
Exactly, see my post above. State foreclosure laws will apply to any first lien mortgage, modified or not. HAMP did not/cannot preempt state foreclosure laws.
I took a profit today. It was a big one for me. I was waaaaay over extended. Now, I'm back in balance. Usually, I feel somewhat elated, but not this time. I'm just exhausted. Maybe I need some of that prozac stuff.
ResistanceIsFeudal wrote:
Yeah. I'm pretty sure I'd have a gun (strokes gun) to my head if I had the debt mentioned in that survey earlier. How the hell can anyone function with $40k of car loans, $50k of heloc, with the sword of job loss held over them.
Not to mention the massive bubble in do-nothing, know-nothing middle managers in many large companies, imposing impossible dead-lines on badly-planned, ill-conceived projects.
Thanks ghostface, you are probably correct I just recall reading some warnings on this when I was considering whether the mod was worth it or not. I remember one home owner told that he came home from work and they had changed the locks...
Some people are vastly concerned about a little cheating by poor people because they can't stop the big cheating by rich people. Kind of like socking your wife after a bad day at work.
Jonathan wrote:
Dammit, I resemble that remark.
Cutting out the pork, man:
http://digitalcoin.info/Digital_Coin_Mortgages.pdf
Re: GNMA bond funds,
Another way to play the bond game is buying individual bonds directly, as long as you are willing to hold to maturity. Expectations are that rates are going to rise dramatically, but with massive unemployment and debt deflation pressures, there might be a spike when Fed steps aside, followed by a slow rate decay as things move sideways down. I committed a small amount to some TVA 3.75% bonds and I'm will to hold them if necessary. It beats my 0.01% treasury MMF.
Thanks liz, although I hope that isn't going to be a worry for me from here on out. I just have a hard time trusting them...for some strange reason...
Yeah, I have a fair amount of money out their making virtually nothing.
Comrade Kristina wrote:
That is a very healthy attitude to have.
Mr Slippery wrote:
That's mean. Never ever beat a treasury.
'Considerable sacrifices' ahead, Stockwell Day warns - The Globe and Mail
ResistanceIsFeudal wrote:
BINGO.
I've ranted about stress being a much under-researched element to problems and not only psychiatric ones. Societies that are not as stressful do not have the prevalence of chronic disease like heart disease, diabetes, obesity, auto-immune diseases, cancer and of course compulsive disorders. I firmly think too much stress is a trigger, too much stress over time and it will have unhealthy affects on populations. Some stress is useful, but like most things, moderation is key. We have little choice these days in working stress, family stress. We are told high productivity levels with fewer people is a good thing.
We 'throw away' people too easily in this nation and live in fear of getting injured or sick, losing our jobs and are held hostage by a bunch of bullies who think we should all be supermen and women and experts in everything from medicine to how to play the stock market to being good parents to stewards of our property, to experts in foreign trade to determine which products are safe to consume or for our children toys in a buyer beware of everything including where you put your money.
Dang, you hit my chatter button, sorry.
MLM wrote:
My career always blows up whenever I get promoted to managerial level.
This trend of balancing budgets on the back of education is a large social engineering experiment with little debate.
"Dozens of public high schools in eight states will introduce a program next year allowing 10th graders who pass a battery of tests to get a diploma two years early and immediately enroll in community college."
Plan Would Let Students Start College Early - NY Times
What is Canada again?
From the start, HAMP has appeared poorly conceived and confusing. But that's because we've been looking at it as a program designed to help homeowners -- as it was advertised. What if its real purpose was to hold off $50T in derivatives from exploding?
A state of mind?
Nanoo-Nanoo wrote:
Dang, you hit my chatter button, sorry.
Sometimes it needs to be hit. Appreciate what you said and I sympathize. Not to mention the human 'capital' cost in the long-term, of this path we're endorsing. When I say we need to wake up from the consensus trance, I'm not using a colorful metaphor.
Elvis wrote:
Crueler still. Ignore them until they get so desperate they beg for attention.
You mean the "public servants" may have to sacrifice up some bankers?
"The test of a first-rate intelligence is the ability to hold two opposing ideas in mind at the same time and still retain the ability to function." F. Scott Fitzgerald
He would have made a great CEO.
Nanoo-Nanoo wrote:
It's just tough love. I'm not trying to be a bully. I just want you to reach your potential and be the best you can be.
In tribute to the Olympic hosts:
Extendia, bold pretender land
homedebtors love
programs that you've planned
With zombie banks
you make markets rise
with debt twice GDP
From LA to Maine, Extendia
nevermind equity
Your divine hand
Lloyd and Jamie
Extendia
ZIRP means 'almost free'.
No question, the foreclosure timeline can be pretty random, some people get kicked out fast, others linger for years. To this day I can't tell why some cases take forever and others take no time at all, but if you are in, say, Vegas, and $150k underwater, the bank is probably in no hurry to take your house back.
Elvis wrote:
Northern US populated by lumberjacks who used to drink a potent beer daily. after awhile they shortened can a day to canada
CR deserves a Pulitzer, period. Unflinching coverage of the facts.
With the quality and quantity of jobs continuing to deteriorate except for the upper 1%, with oil prices rising, with government debt off the charts and rising at a higher rate each year, and with long term interest rates going up and at a critical juncture, I don't see why the permanent mods should be nothing more than temporary as we move toward a much lower standard of living. The credit creation process is broken since there is no longer a middle class, so what is Ben trying to do? Walk on water? I read today that the free traders and their lobbyist friends want to dust off the failed Dubya trade agreements with South Korea, Panama, and Columbia of 2006 and 2007 and ram them thru Congress. And who is trying to stop them? None other than our union leaders who have had their power usurped by the corporatists.
MLM wrote:
I don't think I'd cite Fitzgerald as an authority on the ability to function.
My father went to Harvard at 16. He regretted it a bit later, but why give them a chance to change their mind?
tg wrote:
Really, I thought it was a disease.
speaking of Canada, I saw some of the "curling" on TV earlier, pretty odd, but yet intriguing, sport.
Current zeitgeist: if you're not on antidepressants, you're suspect.
speaking of solar. I have a friend that was at a solar start-up in SF until recently; last time I spoke to her it was going gang-busters and they were looking to hire more. I believe they were going to build and run solar sites. They just dropped that plan and they won't be building/owning the solar sites anymore so the software she was designing got moth-balled.
Looks like whatever has been going on with alternative energy/china solar energy moves just threw a spanner in some green start-up companies.
I did, now I'm too tired and sick to stand on my feet 10 hours a day. I saved my money, didn't get in debt, lived below my means to prepare for this day we will all face and it still won't be enough, will it?
it sounds like the current minority government in Canada (the opposition parties can combine to make a simple majority vote either to form a new government with existing politicians or force an election) will be enacting their budget balancing through cuts to the Federal department of Public Works (your average federal middle manager, Welcome - Public Works and Government Services Canada (PWGSC) )
this will be post-Olympics because Parliament is on break for them
many governments have tried this, but they've always backed down in the end
they have a serious structural deficit right now, have spent the past few years running up the spending in anticipation of an election and not wanting to let their opponents have any money to spend if elected, and they would lose their base in a second given their basic platform of no tax increases
mp wrote:
My point exactly. Maybe I should have launched a
after that earlier comment.
poic wrote:
They must have run the numbers.
Jack Staub wrote:
50T?
....I raise.
He did outlive his last great subject - a much younger Thalberg. Clean living, s'pose.
Someone asked me how much they needed to be saving... My reply was at least 20%, or more, and of course the more you save now the better you will live later, unless inflation eats it all... Not having debt is the key thing - and if you are working your wages will probably go up with inflation too... The typical response is "no way can I save that much" as they sip their starbux and plan to go out for the evening...
I guess redemption by the Blood of the HAMP is a Gift not freely given to all people after all. Seems you have to do a little bit more than ask for forgiveness.
"With the quality and quantity of jobs continuing to deteriorate except for the upper 1%, with oil prices rising,"
Not just oil prices, either, all commodities are up as priced in USD. Copper was up over 100% in 2009. Sugar hit an alltime high recently.
Nanoo-Nanoo wrote:
[crickets]
MLM wrote:
You need to get out more...
http://www.geology.und.edu/gerla/gge487_488_494/chamberlin1890science.pdf
rosethorn wrote:
Indeed and agree. Is there a process for nomination or is it like the Oscars? I am stupendously stupid on matters like this.
ghostfaceinvestah wrote:
Planning, strategy, teamwork, open board, and after all that execution and a little luck going to the prepared are required. Think of it as the Anti-Fed sport.
The US men's loss to Norway yesterday was tragic.
Comrade Kristina wrote:
But they don't WANT the house. What part of extend-and-pretend don't you understand?
sm_landlord wrote:
I read a fairly convincing article by a reformed greenie about five years ago comparing energy densities of oil versus alternatives. There's just not much that can replace it. Biofuels are a sad joke. The four viable alternatives were nuclear and coal, with solar and wind as minor players.
IMF Survey: IMF ‘On-Market’ Gold Sales Move Ahead
The IMF announced it is seriously maybe considering possibly selling some of the gold it already announced it seriously maybe is considering selling at some point sometime.
And I like this part:
Key to new income model:... The new income model aims to diversify the IMF’s income sources and better align them with the variety of functions performed by the Fund. A key element is the creation of an endowment with the profits from gold sales...
I think of it as a beer sport. I'm pretty sure that the masterminds behing fed policy are more into lots and lots of yola.
"Think of it as the Anti-Fed sport."
LMAO!!!!
ShadowInventory wrote:
At this point, your "savings" are inevitably being loaned to someone who can't pay it back.
Nanoo-Nanoo wrote:
At least you can know you tried to do your best. Think of the poor souls dragging themselves in to work behind counters in 7/11s and gas-stations, all for the chance to at least have a choice between food or their diabetes medicine. (from a CR poster story)
broward wrote:
Biofuels have a place at the micro level.
broward wrote:
Word.
And we are talking ballpark 100 quadrillion BTUs of energy consumed in the USA...conservation will provide a lot, but energy is going to get more expensive, period. The issue at hand is will it crash the system or will we limp along...
ghostfaceinvestah wrote:
Only $150k underwater? There must be about 9 of those in Las Vegas. That's considered an equity owner in Vegas.
broward wrote:
Geothermal also has a lot of potential, but it requires very large upfront investments.
ghostfaceinvestah wrote:
LMAO!!!!
Oh, and i forgot the ability to read subtle signs, adjust to changing conditions, admit error and leave the field when you lose.
Fischer-Tropsch from PRV coal is inevitable on a massive scale, assuming we're even capable of putting that together. It will be that or nothing once the rest of the world gets sick enough of wall street to cut us off.
Biz Break: Silicon Valley plane crash kills 3 Tesla employees - San Jose Mercury News
If your going up against government motors, it's probably a good idea to avoid small aircraft...
I used to think that a good approach was nuclear power plants and then make hydrogen for portable power... Then I met a rocket surgeon who educated me about the difficulties and hazards of storing hydrogen.. So now I think the best portable power is compressed natural gas - same as LNG only not as high pressure and not liquid... we still should have enough nuclear power plants to cover our base load...
How much is GE going to make off the guaranteed loans and guaranteed contracts re: Georgia announcement?
Rob Dawg wrote:
As I recall the aficionados in Fairbanks, AK there was some requirement involving the consumption of large quantities of
energyecon wrote:
Tell it to my four year old.
greenchutes wrote:
EROEI - plus feedstock gas - GTL will be expensive...if the capital investment can be marshaled on a large enough scale.
Blackhalo wrote:
If your going up against government motors, it's probably a good idea to avoid small aircraft...
Forcibly retired? No just all Tuckered out.
"As I recall the aficionados in Fairbanks, AK there was some requirement involving the consumption of large quantities of
"
That sport sounds better and better the more I learn about it.
MLM wrote:
Yours can compare notes with my kinder princess...
ShadowInventory wrote:
It's daunting to do it through savings alone. $20K annually for a 50 year career is a million bucks. A lot in, say, 1960. A questionable amount to retire on now.
Hmmmmm.
I worked for a brief period of time as a medical case worker. Part of that involved visiting homes of the elderly to assess for services. I cannot tell you how utterly sad and ridiculous our system is, it was heartbreaking. These people did ZERO to deserve what they got which mostly included losing their homes of decades due to medical bills, inflation eating away at their savings and not a whole hell of a lot I could do for them because of lack of funding and no housing alternatives. I did not stay in that position long, I simply didn't have the ability to separate myself from it very well, some of that still haunts me.
poic wrote:
Many of the silicon valley biz plans were premised on much higher oil prices, which made sense last year. Now, not so much.
You could make an argument about thinking longer than a few years into the future, but that's not what VC money is about.
ghostfaceinvestah wrote:
That sport sounds better and better the more I learn about it.
I bet they' even go dutch on the pizza afterwards: Allison Pottinger, Nicole Joraanstad, Natalie Nicholson - Curling Olympic Trials Finals - LIFE
Nanoo-Nanoo wrote:
Webby Entries: Closed
We shouldn't laugh at these efforts:
Algae to solve the Pentagon's jet fuel problem |
Environment |
The Observer
JP wrote:
This is a comment on "silicon valley biz plans," not your basic comment.
Conjure says, "Most of Silicon Valley wouldn't know what a real business plan was if it ran up and bit them in the ass."
Don't forget to track your cheese down when they move it.
Thank you Blackhalo.
mp--
Could you elaborate on your response? crickets??
Comrade Kristina wrote:
How long did this "homeowner" forget to make his/her payments ? Was there no warning or did they come in a blackhawk and alarm the neighbors ?
Look, I am hoping by this point taxpayers start to listen to accounts like ghostface's and wake up. I for one am getting pretty tired of the system gaming and the woe-is-me , not my fault society.
poic wrote:
Looks like whatever has been going on with alternative energy/china solar energy moves just threw a spanner in some green start-up companies.
Perhaps, although the price for residential (because of dropped demand from Spain, Germany, China) is continuing to drop, although perhaps not sufficiently fast. It's investment capital drying up that has hit commercial solar here in the U.S., along with fear of oil/gas price collapse (shadowing the demand collapse).
mp wrote:
Reminding me of the advice I gave a VC friend on not investing in corn ethanol, or anything else that depends on fickle government market distortions for a return. That money's long gone.
in case it hasn't been mentioned
Lindsey Vonn smoked the downhill course and took Gold
mp wrote:
Synchronicity.
I just got an job email from a site registered in SV which basically doesn't exist.
I made that mistake once before, back around 1998. They claimed 100+ employees and somehow tricked Dun & Bradstreet into listing them as a such, but it was really about five guys hiring a few come-n-go contractors who were running around really, really fast to each project.
ca wrote:
I believe that's the sound of deafening silence-
Fischer-Tropsch is what countries do when they have a lot of coal and not many friends.
That's us very soon.
Good stuff - let's do a bit of math with this as well:
50 million gallons = 1.2 million barrels
Current Pentagon consumption = 60 - 75 million barrels/year
Current US consumption = ~18.5 million barrels/day = ~6.8 billion barrels/year
1,000 gallons/acre = 23.8 barrels/acre [NB: no information on time unit for this yield provided]
The algal production is important, but it will not come close to replacing liquid transportation fuels at systemic levels.
EvilHenryPaulson wrote:
How's her foot?
ca wrote:
Silence, interrupted only by crickets.
It's going to be bad for an awful lot of people.
News Flash: 80% of Americans disagree with the Supreme Court's decision in Citizens' United:
Left and right united in opposition to controversial SCOTUS decision - Yahoo! News
mp wrote:
An awful lot of people who played by the rules per the comments by N-N...
broward wrote:
Broward, D&B is a f*****g joke. I used to be a member. No more. Waste of money and time.
Buyers remorse? Did any of the 50 million who voted for W not want a jurist like Roberts?
mp wrote:
AND get worse for the ones who already have it bad.
I was hoping back in '07 that meaning of the term "homeowner" would change to more accurately reflect itself. Like homeowner applies to someone that actually OWNS a home, outright. For all others the term should be mortgageholder. Because the lender actually owns the home and can sell it under certain conditions.
I know. I have bought several from lenders. They were real homeowners.
1 currency now -yogi: "50T? Laughing out loud ....I raise."
OK, directly $50T in mortgage derivatives and indirectly $684T as of last week!
We've got a whole lot of those buggers to feed,
they're multiplying,
and they're HUNGRY!
energyecon wrote:
How about some feel good math from you once in a while, huh?
greenchutes wrote:
Do the same math as that for the algal oil production...and remember, you need feedstock synthesis gas whether from natural gas or coal...the scale of the challenge is...non-trivial.
Cinco-X
It was her shin, and it didn't slow any of her times down at least. I'm left wondering if the cheese wrap was her just having a bit of fun with the press and her opponents
Well, this piece seems to be talking about a single refining site. Once the first large scale refining site gets the bugs worked out
, they could replicate the site 60 times and meet their consumption needs.(The DoD, that is0.
MLM wrote:
OK I am LMAO here listening to a teleconference on China as a house of cards...let me see if I can gin up a math
Local News | WA. gov asks for about $600M in taxes for deficit
| Seattle Times Newspaper
Now we're gonna need even more stimulus on the national level to counteract the taxes on the local level.
greenchutes wrote:
Justice Roberts-my man...Ummm....what were you saying?.
EvilHenryPaulson wrote:
LOL me too-
energyecon wrote:
The math works better when you just make up the facts as you need them; lemme know if you need some help-
How come all this talk about algal ponds and DARPA has me thinking about that movie "The Blob"?
I'm no engineer. I just know that God, in his infinite irony, gave us a whole planet full of cheap crappy coal in the mid-north-northwest of our great land. It is out in the middle of nowhere, which is perfect. It could power us for centuries, with our future anemic growth. This, of course, is why WB bought BN.
Like Julia Roberts? None of the hetero males.
greenchutes wrote:
Capital investment + minor technology improvements.
The same is true of the Canadian tar sands.
Alternative fuels are too cheap and alternative investments too lucrative.
The free market is not an omnipotent god.
rosethorn wrote:
That is what kind of footprint? It depends on the timeframe for the yield of 23.8 barrels/acre - if that is an annual yield then we would need what, like 2.5 million acres of algae ponds for the DOD fuel requirements (works out to 3,939 square miles of algae pond, or a square ~63 miles on a side).
broward wrote:
"Alternative fuels are too cheap"
I just have a hard time imagining cheaper fuel than PRV coal, though I haven't studied that sector in a while, maybe it is pricier these days than I remember.
If you think about it, everything that has been done was in order to keep derivatives from exploding. Lehman taught them that lesson early on. At first we were told that CDS wasn't a big problem and they would result in a wash. Then we were told that most derivatives are currency or interest swaps and perfectly benign. How's that working out for Italy and Greece now? It's always been about saving the shadow banking industry...
Off to work now, have a good night all.
CK, wait till everyone finds out these benign instruments were applied to everything stateside..school districts, states, cities, towns, pension plans, everything. Get yer popcorn out. And I'm really out...
We could be pets, we could be food. But all we really are is livestock.
energyecon wrote:
I think they've got a square just like that out to the west of Lliz. Woohoo, problem solved! Next!
Just to finish the calculations:
1000 gal/acre= 23.8 bbl/acre
Pentagon Consumption ~ 2,500,000-3,200,000 acres = 3900 mi^2-500 mi^2 = 62 mi x 62 mi square to 71 mi x 71 mi square
Doable... Expensive, but doable.
U.S. consumption: 413429 mi^2 or about twice the size of texas. While converting the Texas, Arkansas, Mississippi, Lousiana, Alabama, and Florida into giant algae ponds appeals to me somewhat, I don't think its practical.
Ack,
I hadn't seen your comment when I posted mine.
Winston wrote:
Thanks Winston - you picked up the implied line from those old math texts "We leave the solution to the problem as an exercise for the reader."
edit: No, thank you for extending the calculation to the entire USA.
Winston wrote:
Wow, somebody found a use for Texas!
We can still convert trains and road freight to NG.
Assuming there is a 50% reduction in miles covered by US drivers, and a doubling in (diesel) mileage, you just reduced the fuel demand by ... a whole lot.
Columbo style: just one more thing, what are giant ponds of 'easily extracted gasoline' going to do to groundwater...
broward wrote:
... but it would definitely qualify as messin' with Texas.
JP wrote:
Perhaps but it would be "adding value".
If you did both of those things you would only require a half-texas. That almost gets you to a Central Valley... Hmm.....
No question there will be a significant footprint. But I'm sure that there is 2.5 million acres of farm property through out the US that the government is paying the owners not to farm. And for perspective, my state of Oregon has total area of 96,000 square miles. So the figure you give would be only 4% of that total. Divide the 3900 square miles into the area of the lower 48 and the footprint would be minimal.
Jonathan wrote:
It will require a matrix of energy sources, and major conservation efforts - the point I keep hammering on is that there is no silver bullet - due to the scale of the energy demand and the scale of the existing physical infrastructure it is a huge undertaking that will cover a couple of decades.
Nanoo-Nanoo wrote:
The wife was watching some Euro politicians -- French, German -- talk about social issues on the tube. I was doing something else nearby. She came over and said, "The French pol said that the function of government is to make sure that the people can live without fear..."
What a great gap there is between us and other developed countries.
energyecon wrote:
Yep, only a (further, series of) war(s) could really force the issue.
If we have another couple of decades like the one we just had, then we'll get there, just slower.
rosethorn wrote:
Impractical as desert areas and colder climates will not provide the yield - it will be regionally concetrated to the most amenable areas to the extent that it is implemented. 156 square ponds each five miles on a side is quite a footprint wherever it is set up...but you could run a sideline in gators, skeeters and fishing!
South Carolina Lawmaker Seeks to Ban Federal Currency - Political Hotsheet - CBS News
This is hilarious:
"In addition, since gold and silver regularly fluctuate in value, they could not easily function as stable currency. "
Jonathan wrote:
Sadly, that is the percentage bet.
ghostfaceinvestah wrote:
Fortunately, the federal reserve dollar maintains a steady value over time.
energyecon wrote:
I agree. Of course there's no silver bullet, and it will take a long term effort. But put together nuclear, domestic natural gas, and alternative sources of hydrocarbons like the algae process added together could make a significant dent in imported energy over time. I
rosethorn wrote:
And must - we should have started years ago but we should really be going pedal to the metal on this, including the Dawg's "a panel on every roof" plan - have a helluva lot better return than the resources we've poured into the money singularity making the world safe for bankers' bonuses...
Fit right in Edwards AFB without a problem. The west is full of empty space- unless you want to use the side of a skyscraper in manhattan for green reasons?
energyecon wrote:
It's HUGE
This is just a guess, but is it possible that the statistics distinguish between people who do not qualify for HAMP and people who fail to meet the requirements? For example, a person might make payments and submit the necessary paperwork but is determined not to qualify based on the terms of the program. There will also be people who might qualify but fail to meet the program's requirements (e.g., they miss a payment or do not submit necessary paperwork).