So much talk; so much work; so little time to chat about talk.
.
Edit: My unofficial for the day: The rates of divorce filings in my neck of the woods are down only ~7% Y-o-Y. Thank the gods that I can eat another month.

CR,
Is there any reason to think that the current uptick in employment is related to the increase in housing starts? I'd assumed it was due to a shrinking work force instead-

BBC News - Foreign demand for US debt drops by record amount

Nanoo-Nanoo wrote:

Does anyone besides me see a talk up the economy strategy from the Administration? Good luck with dat if so.

Talking points for the week are all about jobs. Yadda yadda yadda, but the numbers tell the tale.

World Revolves Around U.S. Technology" Might As Well Profit From It

I suspect that we'll have a hard time collecting royalties from the likes of China, India, Russia, and Africa..

Yes but intellectual property rights as a catalyst for the next world war?

Vonbek777 wrote:

Yes but intellectual property rights as a catalyst for the next world war?

Doubt it-

funny...I'm watching the horror show of Greece, CA and economic news...my husband is watching Mad Max-seriously. ha. I suppose we are preparing in different ways.

aleister perdurabo wrote:

S&P estimates the inventory to equal a 33-month supply of homes. Analysts added the estimate is actually conservative, as they did not assume homes not showing signs of distress would default and push the overhang of supply even further.

100 million households in the US, and >20 million excess abodes? I'd say 33 months is conservative.

Hi Sconsie, where ya bin?

As always I would add the overhang from delinquent but not yet dealt with mortgages.

While the people living in these houses will have to find housing elsewhere, it is very likely that this group will lead to negative household formation. That is, once kicked out of their house, many will live with relatives, under bridges, etc.

This will of course put upward pressure on the vacancy rate, arguing against the need for more housing supply.

I stick with the belief that increases in residential investment for the next few years will come primarily from improvements and renovations, as delinquent borrowers are kicked out and the existing house falls into new hands, either a flipper or new owner, who invests in improvements.

I think the fundamentals of the US economy are fine .....we need a SarcMark on CR
SarcMark - Home

Comrade Kristina wrote:

Goldman Sachs and Greece - Greek Ex-Minister: Other Euro Countries Did Swaps Too - CNBC

My word, our global nations are headed by eight-year-olds.

Apocalypto replaced Mad Max for me. That movie is something to get the old brain thinking.

Would you jump off a roof if everybody else was doin' it?

(Why yes, actually)

LL,

That is a trick question Is there beer and a swimming pool involved?

Fed should begin to sell its MBS, Plosser says - MarketWatch

scone wrote:

I was spending too much time here.

I can't imagine what that feels like.

actually my fiancee had to bring grief counselors in for about 40 employees yesterday afternoon after watching a man jump from building on market street...right next to powell street cable car turnaround....employees saw the whole thing from lunch room....

greed is rewarded savers are extorted....

Some interesting data from Credit Karma:

Credit Scores Down More Than Five Points in Three States, According to CreditKarma:

SAN FRANCISCO, CA--(Marketwire - February 17, 2010) - Credit Karma (http://www.creditkarma.com) the consumer's credit advocate, today released its U.S. Credit Score Climate Report with trend data for January 2010. On average, nationally, credit scores dropped by two points in January to 669, marking the first time credit scores have dropped below 670 in 12 months. In addition, consumers in three states managed to lower their credit scores by more than five points. These include:

Louisiana - credit scores dropped from 645 to 639
Michigan - credit scores dropped from 662 to 657
Missouri - credit scores dropped from 663 to 656

On a positive note, consumers with credit cards paid down their debt by 2% nationally since December 2009. In January 2010, the average consumer with an account had:

$7,925 in credit card debt
$180,190 in home mortgage loans
$51,919 in home equity loans
$14,736 in auto loans
$26,337 in student loans

In addition, consumers in four states paid down their credit card by more than 5%. These include:

Kentucky - paid down credit card debt by 6%
Minnesota - paid down credit card debt by 7%
Oregon - paid down credit card debt by 7%
West Virginia - paid down credit card debt by 8%
Here are some other key findings:

Credit scores in Texas, North Carolina and South Carolina increased their credit scores by one or two points. The current average credit scores are 660, 664 and 648 respectively.
Consumers in the Miami MSA started 2010 with the lowest credit scores nationwide. The average credit score in Miami is 654, which is 15 points below the national average.
Consumers in the Denver and New York MSAs were the only consumers to charge more on their credit cards in January 2010. In these MSAs, credit card debt increased by two and four percent respectively.

creditcriminalslovetarp wrote:
greed is rewarded savers are extorted....
The real money has to come from somewhere... since claims on it, made in bad faith or willing ignorance, have to be honored.

You just knew that if it wasn't the it had to be O's "savvy" BFF.

Did anyone notice a large provider of health care services in Houston went belly up? I'm educating myself about 'pink sheet companies', SEC and delisting. Now I have a gigantic headache.

Bederra Corporation Hires New CFO and Accounting Firm - MarketWatch

Pink Sheets - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

CaptainMorgan, IIRC the number of homes with no liens or mortgages is ~31%.

"My word, our global nations are headed by eight-year-olds."

.....ourselves included. You KNOW there are serious problems with an economy when a box of toothpicks (800-round) from a company in Indiana is cheaper when made in China and imported for sale HERE. Globalism/NAFTA/free trade my ass - it's time to check the box marked "Made In The USA". Our peoples' living conditions are starting to resemble our fine neighbors' to the South - ("Seven to a bedroom/Twenty to a House")..........something ain't right here, Folks.

tg wrote:

Howard Lufkin ...

Is a complete idiot. China sees the scrawny aging cow only has just so much milk left in it.

creditcriminalslovetarp wrote:

Rush needs to be hung up with the bankers....pill popping racist idiot....

Agreed. I wonder why anyone from the left or right pays any attention to the f'ing PoS.

Ouch albrt...absolutely ey.

albrt wrote:

Good point. We need to add bridges, tents and large motor vehicles to the shadow inventory figures.

why I come here, snarkiness is pure 18K that inspires me...no snark.

Speaking of - we have officially hit all-time highs in every piece of fiat on the planet in 2010, right?

Did we get an official Slumdogtm bulletin at the recent low?

ghostfaceinvestah wrote:

I stick with the belief that increases in residential investment for the next few years will come primarily from improvements and renovations, as delinquent borrowers are kicked out and the existing house falls into new hands, either a flipper or new owner, who invests in improvements.

+1. Good analysis.

Q for the board and or CR??

Q: What is that blue knot-like snotty looking thing at the end of the series on unemployment/housing starts? In previous cycles or series, there doesn't seem to be this knotted up bunching of noise?

I'm pondering if this is a brickwall-event that has not been in a previous model, which suggest that the models we have are not useful in understanding the total impacts of total systemic failure; one can appreciate that one never builds a model to show the reality of but this chart is reminding me of the Treasury yield bullshit, and the Treasury curve that is mathematically designed to not go to zero ... but it did, and thus back to the Q here, is that blue glob of boogers which represents starts, really an indicator of how there are components of our economy that have collapsed?

I would be looking for more blue boogers in correlations that show unemployment stagnation, like retail sales and post XMAS fantasy!

It wont be coal in your socks this year, it will be

• This was not a prayer....

sm_landlord wrote:

No surprise, yesterday was only a small interruption in the trend. The news about the other governments gambling in Goldman's casino can't be helping.

I can safely say that I never would have predicted a populist uprising against the in Europe, of all places. But if this continues, and Europeans are told that they sold out their future upon receiving a pittance from the squid in the present, I can imagine how they might react. Monetary recovery through legislation, followed by eviction?

“All governments just want to discuss their current cash flow that they can manipulate, the way Goldman has helped Greece do,” Kotlikoff said.

Greece’s three-year deficit reduction plan pledges to trim the shortfall by 4 percentage points of gross domestic product this year and to bring the country within the European Union’s 3 percent limit in 2012.

Compared with Greece, the U.S. is in a worse fiscal shape, according to Kotlikoff. “Uncle Sam is just tremendously malfeasant when it comes to fiscal reporting,” he said. “With an enormous amount of unofficial liabilities to pay for, they swamped the official debt by a mile and that’s why the U.S. is basically bankrupt at this point.”

Greece Should ‘Devalue’ Without Abandoning Euro, Kotlikoff Says - Bloomberg.com

scone wrote:

And that's on an average household income of 40 - 50k.

Medians would be more telling than averages with such an uneven income and debt distribution.

Current trend in large companies to 'lay off" employees
Send employees to HR. HR rep. offers them two alternatives: a) resignation or b) termination notice . Sleazy HR offers employee handbook rather than explain consequences of signing documents Most employees sign the resignation not understanding they signed away their right to unemployment insurance. HR's advice is this is a formality, you'll be coming back soon.

Also, many employees have been forced into early retirement and can't survive on it. Where are those statistics?

2 Q= 2 thousand trillion= 2,000,000,000,000,000= a few centuries of US GDP

US GDP is mainly a measure of consumption, not value.

, but only for nominal values. A house of cards, not brick and mortar.

Even if the international law types could find a "smoking gun memo" to prove the squid colluded with Greece to do a cover up, there's probably not much that could be done other than fines. It's bound to raise the fear factor on other sovereign debt. There's no easy way to tell who's screwed the pooch, and no easy way to enforce a system to clean it up.

rps wrote:

Most employees sign the resignation not understanding they signed away their right to unemployment insurance.

Many companies do the resignation thing, but then don't contest the unemployment request. Some companies actually care about their reputation, and understand that it takes a long time and expense to earn that reputation back.

Sadly, what you described might be closer to normal than what I just described

shill wrote:

Nice coming up on the 1:30 push, usually starts around 2:00 so we are early today.

Take a look at TBT...that explains a lot.

When do we raise the debt cieling again ? I mean, we have a newly minted panel organized to rehash what countless panel have already discovered yet we continue to elect officials that seem to think the debt cieling is best left for the next congress to implement.

They all need to be thrown out.

sm_landlord wrote:

Take a look at TBT...that explains a lot.

The Dow is really hitting a wall at 10,300 today, on low volume (although higher than yesterday). Just about to crest 50% (100 million) and there's 2.5 hours left.

Mr Slippery wrote:

Medians would be more telling than averages with such an uneven income and debt distribution.

I think there should be somewhat of a disconnect between average income and average house price, since many on the lower end aren't and may never be homeowners.

Nobody should be carrying a balance on a credit card when you get right down to it.

scone wrote:

Even if the international law types could find a "smoking gun memo" to prove the squid colluded with Greece to do a cover up, there's probably not much that could be done other than fines.

if these swaps were used to hide debt then by definition the payments that Greece is required to make in the early years is less than and in the latter years greater than what would have been paid on a "regular swap". One recourse would be to declare the entire transaction as illegal. Argue that Greece didn't have the authority to enter into these transactions.

In the early 90's the Borough of Hammersmith got out from making about $700MM of payments on the grounds that the swaps it had entered into were unenforceable because they didn't have the authority to enter into the transaction. That was upheld by the House of Lords.

sm_landlord wrote:

Take a look at TBT

You know, I have held a core TBT position for over a year and it has done nothing at all, yet the TLT the single long is down 10%.
TLT: Basic Chart for iShares Trust iShares Barclays - Yahoo! Finance
I have had it with all the leveraged positions.

1 currency now -yogi wrote:

The swap SYSTEM is far from benign.

Oh I agree, I think the entire concept of a multi-year currency swap like that is bizarre, and my kids--who will be very knowledgeable on such matters just as soon as they're out of diapers--will endlessly laugh at my generation for thinking up such a silly idea.

1:24p

Treasurys drop after data, Greek debt woes ease

I get a kick out of this headline " Greek debt woes ease " Greece does not have a printing press, so I highly doubt the woes have eased.

Hehe wait till July when all hell break loose

http://www.economicpolicyjournal.com/uploaded_images/ScreenShot346-798543.jpg

Well, let us take a look at the 30 year bond right now: 4.64
^TYX: Basic Chart for Treasury Yield 30 Years - Yahoo! Finance

Now, it looks like we hit a panic low in late 2008, and are now back to the 2000s average. So, now do we repeat the 70s show with a long slow climb followed by a spike to 15%?

I think so. Now, get ready for a real misery index.

Someday this war's gonna end...

15%?

CA, Your thinking that high huh?....hmm that is misery, and then some.

Fed's Plosser Delivers Speech Defending Fed Against Ron Paul Audit Demands

Speech: The Federal Reserve System: Balancing Independence and Accountability (February 17, 2010) - Philadelphia Fed

He doesn't mention Ron Paul by name, but he does mention Ron Paul's Audit the Fed bill.

Clearly, the Fed continues to see Paul's legislation as a major threat.

The account of the jump-suicide on Market street, San Francisco is here:

Suicide draws crowd at Powell and Market | San Francisco Examiner

RIP

NEM's close yesterday was, according to yahoo, 47.419998. Perhaps when O is devoting a week to important tasks like reforming the BCS playoffs, he can also limit stock trades to thousandths. Call the two-pronged bill the "Bookie and TA relief act".

From SNAFU link

San Francisco resident Terence Prasad said he walked by the scene before the man jumped and heard some people shouting at the man, “don’t jump!”

But others, he said, were shouting “Jump!”

“It was kinda messed up,” he said. “But at least he’s in a better place now.”

It was "kinda messed up" Terence? You think?

To me, the big problem is, there is no true global disciplinarian that can really punish bad behavior effectively, without risking a massive financial shit storm. And if there were such a disciplinarian, that might be even worse.

Imagining the potential abuse of a global disciplinarian position is sending chills down my spine. We've certainly had a taste of "bad" people in high places in our own backyard.

Pretty scary that splattered all over the payment is a "better place" than living in our society...

nova wrote:

“But at least he’s in a better place now.”

The lie again spreads the insidious thought that suicide leads to "a better place".

I wish folks would edit themselves. Religion aside, the dead are dead to us. Nobody comes back from splat.

Someday this war's gonna end...

SF is a mean town, and has been for 162 years or so. Charming, unique, beautiful, and with the most steadily pleasant weather in the lower 48, but mean. There's a reason the first real house in town was named "Dolores".

I read the comments. Is that what SFO is like, really?

I did not even read the " Suicide " piece, not too fond of reading about people taking their lives.

Sad really.

Thanks to whoever submitted the link to George Carlin on YouTube! I've now been running various clips on my computer (volume VERY low) here at work....I've been laughing for much of the last 2 hours or so!

edited for meanness

The context of pr's remark was a discussion of the gross system. He has yet to retract.

I can feel my wallet bleeding and my blood pressure rising.

I get the same way every time I have to go to the Registry of Motor Vehicles, that place is nothing but a money grabbing shit hole.

ghostfaceinvestah wrote:

Given the flood of distressed sales everyone knows is coming

I have a slightly different view about the buildup of distressed properties. The administration won't let these deadbeats (pseudonym for LENDERS) down. There will be a principal forgiveness program where lenders are made whole, on the taxpayer, of course.

Nanoo-Nanoo wrote:

what I want to know is how international investment houses would be reprimanded legally or otherwise?

Me too. The little I know of international law suggests there's not much of a framework there yet. War crimes and law of the sea, yes, international financial criminal behavior, not so much. There's basic recognition and honoring of the payment system, generally, but not a whole lot more. And obviously banks can get around even a pretty well-regulated system. If you can buy the best lawyers and the worst politicians in the world, you're well ahead of the game.

Even if there were some international financial policing, there are strong incentives for individual countries to weasel out of the rules. And all you need are a few, to screw the system as a whole, because all the banksters will go through the weakest links. There are probably a whole series of game theory problems in there too, but I'm getting a headache just trying to wrap my head around the scale of the problem.

scone wrote:

there is no true global disciplinarian that can really punish bad behavior effectively

It's called credit markets. Even if Greece could print it's own currency, how many Zimbabwe dollars to a pet rock?

CaptainMorgan wrote:

There is a FICO score disincentive to cancel unused credit cards as well.

We have a citi visa. Zero balance and hardly ever use it. They hit us with a $60 annual fee. We said thanks but no, cancel the card. I have no idea how much it affects FICO but I don't care given the circumstances.

You know the economy is bad when....

Making Partner Less Likely as Big Law Firms Face Cash Crunch - Bloomberg.com

This is not too bad.

Feb. 17 (Bloomberg) -- Europe may need to stump up as much as 320 billion euros ($441 billion) if it decides to bail out Greece because it would open the door to rescuing other countries in financial distress, according to BNP Paribas.

mock turtle wrote:

arent swaps designed and trade OTC?

and therefore lack of standardization and oversight makes it difficult if not impossible

to know whats in all those black boxes...

thought that was what brooksley born said

id feel better knowing im wring about this so tell me

You're not wrong, and the label 'swaps' really is a catch-all for all sorts of exchanges. I guess my point was that, fundamentally (and this holds true for virtually all derivative transactions) there is a time and a place for this type of swap, and in some circumstances it can be beneficial.

However, too often such a transaction is assumed to be risk mitigation devices, when--in reality--it seems to simply bundle up 10 years worth of volatility losses into one, epic explosion.

Nanoo-Nanoo wrote:

You know the economy is bad when....

Unless you're lucky enough to be in the exclusive Cleveland Airport class.

CaptainMorgan wrote:

Nobody should be carrying a balance on a credit card

I am so old that I remember when credit cards were first introduced... the first ones all had annual fees, and there was a lot of press at the time about the dangers of carrying a balance... I already had friends who were basically underwater from buying on credit from Sears, Wards, etc... So I was scared off enough to pass altogether... First time I got a credit card was when they became available with no annual fee - a 'free' card - but of course who is paying the merchant fee? Not the merchant - the consumer pays for everything... So far I have never been very successful in getting discounts for paying in cash, except for diesel fuel at truck stops... But I have seen some stores that tack on a credit card fee if you dont pay in cash... The fee/discount should be 3-5% unless there is some special arrangement, like for fuel...

nova wrote:

bail out Greece

Greece needs to dump the Euro officially walk on the debt and print drachmas for internal use and become the cheapest vacation spot in europe

I don't know, if the economy is going to be bad for a few years...just like with the walk aways...that little devil on my shoulder is saying run up those cards and screw it. Enjoy the feast before the famine and wait it out seven years...my moral compass won't let me of course, but I won't deny the thought has crossed my mind. Until the US starts throwing people in debtors prison and seizing property...the moral hazard just isn't that compelling for most people.

If you're going to default, you could use the cards to buy up tools and building supplies etc - stuff that would keep some value but could not be repo'ed... Not that I am endorsing that kind of theft...

If you throw credit card debt into a bankruptcy, you can forget about ever getting a card again, unless you get a cosigner...

creditcriminalslovetarp wrote:

actually my fiancee had to bring grief counselors in for about 40 employees yesterday afternoon after watching a man jump from building

that's what happens when the parachute supply is gone.

and why safety nets are a social necessity.

FOMC Minutes: Expect "slow improvement in the labor market"

Nanoo-Nanoo wrote:

Does anyone besides me see a talk up the economy strategy from the Administration? Good luck with dat if so.

Obama Starts Push to Cast Stimulus Bill as a Success

I'm still waiting to see how far the rot will go through society...rules will be rewritten if so many go the bankruptcy route. I don't have a clear picture yet.

scone wrote:

To me, the big problem is, there is no true global disciplinarian that can really punish bad behavior effectively,

Well, no doubt there are acres of scholarly tracts on power (C. Wright Mills, Machiavelli, et al) as well as more board feet of paper on the "free market", but in some ways that's exactly the nub of it. There is no really global mommy, and if you think you've been hoodwinked, or maybe think you've been stuck with the bill, you weigh the odds. Strategic default.
Maybe part of the problem is the lack of a culture of barganing-or if you like, conflict resolution. Jaw-jaw beats war-war every time, and a bad settlement is probably better than sticking to "the deal". Like divorce, only the lawyers do well from it.

You schmuck shoot some extra and and trade them for a $250 netbook.

noob goldberg wrote:

Indulgences aren't cheap, my child. 10 pieces and be on your way.

They might just take the child instead.

Thanks! Red Hat!