(AP) - Police in the Greek capital say a bomb has exploded at the offices of American financial services firm J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., causing no injuries.
The blast occurred early evening Tuesday in an upscale area of central Athens, following a warning telephone call to an Athens newspaper.
so, if this a L recession, and we never really recover, what do we do with all of the extra houses we built?
Sell 'em even cheaper?
You raise a good point; I've wondered about what we're going to do about the finance industry. I think I read that it had become about 20% of GDP or something like that. We all know it isn't needed (not to the tune of 20% of GDP anyway), and if we take most of that away, and then don't have a real housing recovery for ten years or more, what then? Between housing and unneeded financial services, our GDP could take a ~20% hit and not recover for decades.
Thoughts?
TJ and The Bear wrote: Imagine the possibilities in a world where housing takes only 10% of most people's incomes...
For FIRE and its passive interest rentier economy, that would be TEOTWAWKI... can't have that.
I can see it. Off in the distance. A field filled with granite counter tops. Different colors, mostly black or tan. Row after row of them. Sometimes the blue pearl catches the sun and it is beautiful. Left behind. No one knows why. Once they held sinks. Now, its into the ground the settle.
Grandpa told me about the "Houses of Sacramento." He said "Boy. It was great at first. We needed to build our chicken coops and they was there. In fact, sometimes we used them houses for chicken coops."
"Then what happened Grandpa?"
"Ah shit boy. The drywall poisoned the birds and the damn things fell apart after a couple of summers."
lol...not to my knowledge...but my grandfather stopped researching the family tree when one member apparently married his granddaughter after his first wife died. Pretty sure there is an error in the records...but the family is from Arkansas and Alabama...one never knows.
September 14th, 2007: What’s the real [foreclosure] ratio?
To get an idea, let’s focus exclusively on single family homes for a moment. According to the 2006 Sacramento County General Plan, in 2006 there were 149,368 single family homes in Sacramento County. In 2005, 21,103 single family homes sold through the MLS in the county. In 2006, the number was down to 13,597. Averaging those two years, we get 17,350, which is 11.62% of the 149,368 homes. (Or put another way, a home turns over on average every 8.6 years).
The number of foreclosures is rising every month, but let’s take stock of where we are now, as of September 14, 2007. How many unsold, foreclosed single family homes are inventory right now? The answer the MLS gives is 1,724 for bank-owned single family homes in Sacramento County. Dividing our 1,724 bank owned single family homes by our total number, 149,368, gives us 1.15%- Sacramento Realtor® John Lockwood
With rocket scientists like this in the industry is it any wonder Sacramento is a poster child?
The Fed official [Hoenig ] signaled that hyperinflation–which occurs when consumer prices rise so quickly that a currency becomes worthless–was a possibility in the U.S. To those who say it could never happen in America, Hoenig said people should be reminded that “the unthinkable becomes possible when the economy is under severe stress.”
Hoenig said his 85-year old neighbor gave him a 500,000 German mark note. The neighbor told him that, in 1921, the note would have bought a house. In 1923, it wouldn’t even buy a loaf of bread
I am babysitting a 3 yr old. A nick kids show is on, I asked the little turtle what it was called "backyard barnyard" and as I was reading I heard one of the characters say "and now we see what it looks like when you put lipstick on a pig.....(pig puts lipstick on) mmmm very red!"
hehehehehehehehehe. Ok fess up, which one of you writes dialog for this kids show?
Year on year,it was the weakest December for more than a decade with sales volumes up just 2.1%. That is the lowest annual growth in December since 1998
Actually it could very well be me...I am posting from a computer that is used by the 12 and 14 yr old so.......something they looked at could have brought such evil to CR.
Hoenig said his 85-year old neighbor gave him a 500,000 German mark note. The neighbor told him that, in 1921, the note would have bought a house. In 1923, it wouldn’t even buy a loaf of bread
Thanks for that little ray of sunshine, REBear. Eek.
More foreclosures coming
And don't forget the recent analysis that determined that 70% of all mods will eventually fail as well.
And, yet, people thinking that bulldozing is a bad idea. Those are the same people who go to an all-you-can-eat buffet and won't leave until all the food is gone. Wasting is necessary sometimes.
“With delinquent payments rising, foreclosures slowing, and foreclosure alternatives failing,” says Sean
O’Toole, Founder and CEO of ForeclosureRadar.com, “it appears the foreclosure crisis will be with us for
many years to come”.
Elvis wrote: Those are the same people who go to an all-you-can-eat buffet and won't leave until all the food is gone. Wasting is necessary sometimes.
Buffet doesn't seem the all-you-can-eat sort of guy, more the as-little-as-you-can-eat-publicly-and-still-be-gluttonous guy.
They're coming down the stretch. It's hyperinflation by a nose. Mad Max coming on strong, and Deflation looking weary. If you're not simultaneously buying physical PMs and deflation hedges (Puts), you haven't been paying attention.
Looks to me like the "typically motivated" seller IS desprate. Logically, shouldn't they start ignoring conventional when looking for comps because they represent an atypically undermotivated seller.
"S&P estimates the inventory to equal a 33-month supply of homes. Analysts added the estimate is actually conservative, as they did not assume homes not showing signs of distress would default and push the overhang of supply even further."
Time for homebuilders to find another line of work.
Rob Dawg wrote: ... 70% of all mods will eventually fail as well.
And, yet, people thinking that bulldozing is a bad idea. Those are the same people who go to an all-you-can-eat buffet and won't leave until all the food is gone. Wasting is necessary sometimes.
Elvis (profile) wrote on Wed, 12/3/2008 - 2:17 pm
To revitalize the US housing market the Treasury would need to bulldoze 3.5M homes.
Lesser of two evils. Stagnate the economy for 10+ years or use money to buy and bulldoze foreclosed homes? They chose to give the money to the banks and nothing was solved. I choose to tackle the problem from its root cause and accelerate the eventual recovery. (BTW, I really do enjoy when people disagree with me. It makes me much more comfortable that I am correct.)
Sacramento cries out in its need for jobs and a House Fluffer is there to help!
There are no official credentials for this line of work. There is no independent organization that monitors whether a Home Stager or House Fluffer deals with their clients professionally or the quality or effectiveness of their work.
While some home stagers or house fluffers claim to be "accredited" there is no independent organization that grants such accreditation.
Took the youngest to "Percy Jackson: Lightning Thief" yesterday afternoon.
The three young heroes must travel to see Hades but to get there, have to pay the boatman.
The satyr gives him $170 in USD but the money just catches fire in the boatman's hand and he stares at them. Then Jackson gives him five gold drachma that they took from Medusa and went on their way across.
Didn't stick around to see the credits, but suspect that Nova did some of the re-write. Or Mish.
lol...not to my knowledge...but my grandfather stopped researching the family tree when one member apparently married his granddaughter after his first wife died. Pretty sure there is an error in the records...but the family is from Arkansas and Alabama...one never knows.
Hey! That goes on lots of places, and not just in my home state Maine is famous for it, and we even have some of that crap going on a few towns away here in MA-
Are we really reduced to knocking down houses in order to build more houses? Buying up used cars so that people will buy more cars? Buying up debt so that bankers can issue more debt?
I understand the sentiment, I really do. But all of that requires the government to take on more debt, which requires creditors willing to lend it. If the creditors don't lend it, the government can print it, but only to a certain point before it begins interfering with economic exchanges and reducing demand for all products.
Yes. Price continues to collapse (houses, paper, etc...) and everything else does around it. Not the outcome that most people want. I'm sure some militias would be happy, though.
I've got my John Birch society membership application ready to drop in the mail just in case it gets really bad.
If you're going hang with the Armageddon wackos you might as well pick the KEEEERAZIEST ones...
~splat
The problem with just bulldozing homes is that there are going to be a ton of people with no place to live. Bulldoze them to find an equilibrium point for housing prices and there might not be enough shelter for the destitute. At least, people can go bando and if the homesteader laws were to be widely adopted, then people would be able to have a place to live and neighborhoods might not totally self-destruct. Of course, if my neighbors were going bando in neighboring houses, I'd honestly give serious thought to ruthless default and screw the bank.
I understand the sentiment, I really do. But all of that requires the government to take on more debt, which requires creditors willing to lend it. If the creditors don't lend it, the government can print it, but only to a certain point before it begins interfering with economic exchanges and reducing demand for all products.
That's easy. The Federal Reserve prints money - promising to pull back later - , hands it to the banks (which magically sanitizes it) and then the banks buy treasuries. Then the government takes the money and buys clunkers, or tears down houses, debt, or whatever.
With a fiat currency inflation is always a choice. There's two potential outcomes and a bald guy at the switch. To monetize or not monetize is a choice. Repudiation is a certainty.
That's easy. The Federal Reserve prints money - promising to pull back later - , hands it to the banks (which magically sanitizes it) and then the banks buy treasuries. Then the government takes the money and buys clunkers, or tears down houses, debt, or whatever.
Well, it's worked so far. Keep doing what's working, I guess.
But, like the mantra that housing prices can never fall, the idea that treasury demand is inexhaustible is just as prevalent.
RE: Sacramento. Some properties in the low end have reached fair value and are now in overshoot territory, but properties in the mid and upper range are still hanging high - some still need a 50% haircut.
Hey Noob, just had a thought. To take the 'bottom' thought a step further, dare I say Broward-esque, that the would-be real estate moguls in this wonderful delightful burgh called sacramento really do not have any leaning to 'bottom', they think they are the master of the real estate universe....no bottoms there. I guess the way forward for sacramento is to start finding volunteers to train them, hard.
Wouldn't it be cheaper to just have the government buy them, take them off the market, and maintain them for 5 or 10 years? As opposed to buying them and bulldozing them? Think of the all the new jobs we could create in "empty house maintenance".
Rob Dawg wrote:
Belated welcome to the dark side Elvis.
Are we really reduced to knocking down houses in order to build more houses? Buying up used cars so that people will buy more cars? Buying up debt so that bankers can issue more debt?
Pretty much appears that way doesn't it?
I understand the sentiment, I really do. But all of that requires the government to take on more debt, which requires creditors willing to lend it. If the creditors don't lend it, the government can print it, but only to a certain point before it begins interfering with economic exchanges and reducing demand for all products.
After the earthquake of 1906 how did San Francisco stop the ensuing fires? They blew some up to save the rest. We are in a national F.I.R.E. storm and blowing up some houses may be the only solution.
Would be cool to have a bar scene with lots of extras. Hint.
Oooh. Me too me toooooooo!
Ps Homedad43 a thread a way long time ago i posted about captain and tenille and other proud music of the 70's and you were horrified! hahahahah, mission accomplished. I was out to horrify. bad music, bad!
Perhaps, but doesn't go with the whole Greek meme.
Probably lacks the gods transforming into animals and having 'relations' with humans too. What's the point of a good Greek themed story without all the REALLY questionable bits of their culture ??
So I heard the story revolves around the kids having to pay for their parents, the gods, having mortgaged Mount Olympus for a wildly outrageous and unsustainable lifestyle ? The kids having to journey to hades, where the banksters live, to obtain the deed from the great beast of mortgate-servicers.
~splat
Are we really reduced to knocking down houses in order to build more houses? Buying up used cars so that people will buy more cars? Buying up debt so that bankers can issue more debt?
The only good news for this woman is that Congress has amended student debt handling. In twenty-five years, the unpaid balance can be discharged. Flip side is that the law now requires that the unpaid balance be taxed as a windfall.
If you are going to medical school, you need to be a surgeon or some other type of lucrative specialist or it is a financial gamble. That or work off your loans/get them forgiven in a small town for awhile.
Ps Homedad43 a thread a way long time ago i posted about captain and tenille and other proud music of the 70's and you were horrified! hahahahah, mission accomplished. I was out to horrify. bad music, bad!
Wouldn't it be cheaper to just have the government buy them, take them off the market, and maintain them for 5 or 10 years? As opposed to buying them and bulldozing them? Think of the all the new jobs we could create in "empty house maintenance".
If there is a huge supply and low demand, prices will still fall and the economy will still collapse. There would be little incentive to buy if you know that prices will collapse again once the gov't houses are back on the market.
Are we really reduced to knocking down houses in order to build more houses? Buying up used cars so that people will buy more cars? Buying up debt so that bankers can issue more debt?
It's that, or allow the expected return on capital to decline.
If that's the case then we might as well turn out the lights and give up. Feeding that kind of economic downward spiral does nothing but delay the inevitable.
And, yet, people thinking that bulldozing is a bad idea.
The only reason I can see for not bulldozing is that with all of these worries about hyperinflation, it might be good to keep supply high to keep housing prices from going haywire-
Sacramento is bloated with empty retail and office space. FT has been obsessing over CRE:
FT Alphaville » Now the Australians are worried about US CRE
Debelle is quite concerned with the exposure of what he described as the “second tier (and beyond)” of the US financial system to loan portfolios that are “very regionally concentrated with a sizable weighting to commercial property.”
Does the Fed have enough room left to take on the coming wave of CMBS?
There would be little incentive to buy if you know that prices will collapse again once the gov't houses are back on the market.
They could hold all of them off the market for 5 years, then sell 300K per year for 10 years. That's not going to crash the market, and it beats the hell out of burying them (unless you're a homebuilder, I guess).
I don't want any livable homes bulldozed until renters get the chance to pick them up dirt cheap. Why should non-homeowners artificially prop up the equity of homeowners? You want to get this over quick then let prices fall to market clearing levels NOW.
Otherwise, I see no reason to limit bulldozing to unoccupied homes.
Only if you are trying to prop up MBS and derivatives. In a sane market, prices fall and the renters who saved buy from the idiots that bought at unsustainable prices. The only need for buldozing is in economic dead zone like Detroit.
TJ +1000, I think bulldozing homes when people are priced out of markets and forced to shack up with extended family is stupid, especially since the main goal is to protect homeowners faux-wealth.
Cinco-X wrote: Weeeeelllllll...........arsonist DO have a good understanding of the fire. Why do you think so many arsonists are also firemen?
Sustainable, predictable business model. Now if you could just sell derivatives on your insider knowledge...
Wouldn't it be cheaper to just have the government buy them, take them off the market, and maintain them for 5 or 10 years? As opposed to buying them and bulldozing them?
No-
Think of the all the new jobs we could create in "empty house maintenance".
Apparently everyone wants no pain, and free bulldozing services.
Wait, do you own a bulldozer?
As a renter I would prefer stability, both in the neighborhood and the local government over huge price declines. Some things you can't put a price on.
So I heard the story revolves around the kids having to pay for their parents, the gods, having mortgaged Mount Olympus for a wildly outrageous and unsustainable lifestyle ?
No....on the contrary. The green light was given to speed up the printing press in many locations by that statement... We must be close to one of those 'events'-take your pick as to which one it is....there are literally hundreds of them.
Rob Dawg wrote:
Are we really reduced to knocking down houses in order to build more houses?
Pretty much appears that way doesn't it?
When I said that 8mos. ago, most everyone thought I was wacko. Who da whacko's now!
We still think you are a whacko, now you are a right whacko.
If you recall I said that the result of of government getting involved in the housing market would ultimately devolve to the transit model where we have decades of exactly this same behavior.
Written like renters talking their book. Everyone wants 'theirs' nobody wants pain.
And why is it that renters who chose not to participate in this fiasco be forced to endure pain? They (i.e. we) should have our hands on the controls of the rack used for the banksters and their enablers.
dawg-
yes but not really surprising...GGP gets taken off the books just before it can implode..they are just parking it ala ML, CFC, etc.
From SPGs perspective it is better to buy the house next door than let the market set the price and thus establish a comp. It just frosts me that this level of manipulation is possible.
You assume that there is a sane market. Bad assumption.
No, I do not make that assumption at all, and am a bit annoyed at the distortion that brings about the stupidity, of bulldozers, to make room for more ponzi.
And why is it that renters who chose not to participate in this fiasco be forced to endure pain?
Because you foolishly gave your 401K and pension money to people who "invested" it in home mortgages. And, you didn't do enough to change the political system that made all this possible.
Cinco-X wrote: And why is it that renters who chose not to participate in this fiasco be forced to endure pain?
Whoever has the real asset wealth will be forced to support those with the fake asset wealth. Ironically, this means the fake asset wealth will become real asset wealth, and the real asset wealth holders will become poor. The joys of political pressure and demographic buy-in...
No, I do not make that assumption at all, and am a bit annoyed at the distortion that brings about the stupidity, of bulldozers, to make room for more ponzi.
Bulldozers and some type of tight lending restrictions must go hand in hand. Bulldozers only knock down the stupidity of the last decade. Like getting EEEEEEEE breast enlargements removed.
"Sht! Sht follows me wherever I go! I made no mistakes, I’m endlessly disappointed."
Sarcastically she added: "Winning all my fourth places has always been a close call."
The tax credit cost us something like $43,000 per extra house sold, and HAMP cost how much per modification?
Bulldozing would be similar when you quit pretending it's free.
Cities already have the ability to bulldoze the ones they own, and the new ones are owned by banks mostly, and they won't let you bulldoze them for free.
TJ +1000, I think bulldozing homes when people are priced out of markets and forced to shack up with extended family is stupid, especially since the main goal is to protect homeowners faux-wealth.
If there weren't 20-30 Million unoccupied housing units out there it would be one thing. At this point, the maintenance on these unoccupied, non-producing units is a net negative to the economy. It's like the late '70s, and Detroit had a years worth of unsold cars parked in any available space they could find around Detroit. They couldn't restart production will all of that inventory on hand, but folks couldn't buy cars even at discounted prices since the unemployed autoworkers had such a ripple effect on the rest of the economy. Now, if you increase the "value" of those cars by a factor of 50, you 'd see how all of this excess demand is affecting our economy now.
"$415,000 to $779,000, plus homeowner association (HOA) dues ranging from $915 to $965 a month."
Jaw-dropping, even if it you were next to the 405 in someplace pricey like Brentwood. The bubble hasn't even begun to pop. The 405 in mid-OC is a ten-lane beast, unless I'm mistaken.
We still think you are a whacko, now you are a right whacko.
If you recall I said that the result of of government getting involved in the housing market would ultimately devolve to the transit model where we have decades of exactly this same behavior.
Why am I a whacko? Because I'm a die hard Conservative Republican who chooses to live in MA? Hah! Maybe I'm just a contrarian
As for your comments at the time, I recall that you were one of the few that I generally agreed with.
how can a renter do anything to change the system....
Guess they didn't get out in the streets and march enough. Didn't work within the political process enough. Etc. Etc.
My cake eating point being that we are all in this together, and there's no one who wasn't to some extent or another part of the problem (except maybe noob's kids...).
Because you foolishly gave your 401K and pension money to people who "invested" it in home mortgages. And, you didn't do enough to change the political system that made all this possible.
The fact that my 201k took a hit should be enough pain. Now it YOUR turn
Whoever has the real asset wealth will be forced to support those with the fake asset wealth. Ironically, this means the fake asset wealth will become real asset wealth, and the real asset wealth holders will become poor.
I was at South Coast Plaza this weekend on V-day. There was a huge line out the door and around the storefront at Tiffany's. It looked like they were having some sort of V-day promotion, but I've never seen that kind of line in front of Tiffany's before. I have to visit this blog every day to remind myself what the world outside the OC bubble looks like.
Cities already have the ability to bulldoze the ones they own, and the new ones are owned by banks mostly, and they won't let you bulldoze them for free.
What, you never heard of M&M domain? Seize them for taxes. It's SOP here.
That's actually the line for the cheaper room. Tiffany's gets those on v-day and xmas. I feel bad for those guys, much as I pitied the mid-management guys with laptops on airplanes when I would fly home for holidays from college.
But, yes, it does say something that people still line up to blow 3 bills on silver when they could get CZ. Give it a few years.
Cinco-X wrote: I don't like the way this is going....... I don't like how the story ends either. But that's inevitably the outcome with the ascendance of the political class (the "looters") given the power to create fiat. Arguably giving it to the capitalist-class instead worked pretty well despite some nasty side effects, but now the capitalist-class becomes the political class via regulatory capture and the lobbyist system, moving from productive capital activity to passive collection of rents.
I didn't really follow that. I do know there 6 nice houses in the neighborhood next to mine with price tags from $600,000 to $900,000 that are empty that somebody could live in. Bulldozing them would be a waste. Bulldozing only to rebuild is pointless make-work. If it doesn't need done, let people have more free time. Protecting faux-wealth by destruction only forces people to do unnecessary work, and life is short. Why not let people enjoy it without slaving away for Ben's printed greens to purchase your house from you at the price you like when you decide to move?
interesting take..I sure would like to know how the little lady on the street was part of the problem....she has to worry about food, not protesting...
but since your a bullish on grouping everyone together today, theme music...
That is why I kept it vague. Leverage is the issue.
I'm well aware of the leverage issue. I have commented we need to get to a more prudent lending standard, but can't go there overnight without severe consequences.
Your bulldozing plan is vague as well, too many details would need to be sorted out before it's a plan and not a whacko idea.
The real problem with it is the one I've already stated, the banks own many of the newer "excessive" housing inventory, and won't give it away for free.
So what is left is property seized for taxes, and shown to have little value at auction. Which is properties highly likely to already be bulldozed due to code issues. Many cities besides Detroit bulldoze houses, Dallas included.
I didn't really follow that. I do know there 6 nice houses in the neighborhood next to mine with price tags from $600,000 to $900,000 that are empty that somebody could live in. Bulldozing them would be a waste.
What is the land worth? How much of the materials are salvagable? It is not a complete waste. Spending that much on a house right now is a waste, though.
Bulldozing only to rebuild is pointless make-work.
Well duh......it's the 'excess' supply that's at issue. Think about it. California is probably the only state that could actually use 20 million homes. That's a greater supply than any other state in the country could actually use.
Why would a city that needs tax money pay to bulldoze when they can sell it and recoup at least some of the money owed?
Much of the housing in Detroit is an extreme case where the back taxes owed exceed what the market will bear at auction, even at a $500 starting bid. That is not the case in many places.
Is he the kid on the E-Trade commercials? I love those; let me show you my shocked face; HUH!!!!!!
It greatly disturbs me when he talks on his crackberry while I'm changing his diaper. The boy's going to give himself a brain tumor the size of a grapefruit.
The real problem with it is the one I've already stated, the banks own many of the newer "excessive" housing inventory, and won't give it away for free.
And nobody is asking them to give it away for free. Just because there is no detailed, step-by-step execution plan doesn't mean the concept isn't needed and won't work. Why would I waste my time doing that? You must plan every minute when you are on vacation. Am I right?
It greatly disturbs me when he talks on his crackberry while I'm changing his diaper. The boy's going to give himself a brain tumor the size of a grapefruit
The saying is "hard cases make bad law", and it means that extrapolating a rule from a unique set of facts ("stare decisis", e.g.) does not work all that well when the facts of a case are unusual, unclear, or indeterminable.
You claim it is excess supply. If houses are so plentiful why can't people have multiple homes instead of bulldozing? Because you wouldn't like the price of those homes sans bulldozing?
"an extreme case where the back taxes owed exceed what the market will bear "
Connect the dots between detroit, the miami condo stuck in the HOA trap and the Lennar project linked above by Fair Econ.
We're reaching a tipping point where any number of things (including personal income eventually) just can't support the pyramid of HOA fees, property taxes, etc, on top of it.
Even a BBAD like me can recognize PEAK DEBT when I see it. But that debt isn't just booked debt by a government entity, consumer debt, mortgage debt - it is entitlement debt, and badly-designed HOAs show what happens when entitlements face the sunlight of a real market.
If houses are so plentiful why can't people have multiple homes instead of bulldozing?
Many people do because they can afford it. Don't bulldoze those homes. The excess housing is roughly 4 million. Empty homes are a multiple of that. We don't need to raze all the empty homes.
"$415,000 to $779,000, plus homeowner association (HOA) dues ranging from $915 to $965 a month."
Jaw-dropping, even if it you were next to the 405 in someplace pricey like Brentwood. The bubble hasn't even begun to pop. The 405 in mid-OC is a ten-lane beast, unless I'm mistaken.
Well, the Koolaid is still flowing. The bubble is only still on if there are enough fools about to buy them (and fools/crooks to loan them money).
nope, used credit filters to weed them out..very easy to do...dti, pti, installment highs, revolving highs, no repos last 4 years and 100% or less ltv...
volume+yield-default % ....hence why I'm unemployed, my volume dropped while my default % was nil....stopped buying credit criminals.....walked out of new century financial in 99, triad car loans fired me for not taking bad loans from s. calif dealer in 2002...opened up a credit filtering software for dealers via the web in 03....
I did lose lots on shorting real estate so yes I contributed.....
Connect the dots between detroit, the miami condo stuck in the HOA trap and the Lennar project linked above by Fair Econ.
I see it clearly, and the dots often lead to many of those projects going bankrupt, bought out for dimes on the dollar by somebody else who will either cash flow, or go bankrupt themselves.
Cinco-X wrote: Already fixed:
20216 Kentucky, Detroit, MI, 48221 - MLS #30752605 - Single Family Home real estate - REALTOR.com®
19429 Albany St, Detroit, MI, 48234 - MLS #210017211 - Single Family Home real estate - REALTOR.com®
20216 Kentucky, Detroit, MI, 48221 - MLS #30752605 - Single Family Home real estate - REALTOR.com®
I CAN HAZ EQUITEE?
Home prices keep falling, but productivity is rising fast. GDP grew 5.6 percent in the fourth quarter, yet unemployment remains stubbornly high. Inflation is nonexistent, while the consumer confidence index just rose to 55.9 from 53.6—whatever that means. Can't make sense of these economic indicators? Don't worry, because nobody else can, either.
Here is what you really need to know: a Sonic Boom is coming. It will be caused by globalization. And while globalization may be driving you crazy, it's just getting started. Thirty years ago, Shenzhen, China, did not exist; today, it has nearly 9 million residents, roughly the same as New York City. In a single generation, it has grown from a village of tar-paper shacks into an important urban center. It has become the world's fourth-busiest port, busier than Los Angeles and Long Beach combined. Never before has a great city been built so fast, nor a productive economy established from so little.
The international recession that began in 2008 has made the Sonic Boom quieter, but history shows that when a crisis ends, the larger trends in place before the crisis usually resume. Shenzhen represents the larger trend of growth, change, and transformation at unprecedented velocity. Thanks to vast increases in productivity, worldwide economic growth soon will pick up, creating rising prosperity and higher living standards for most people in most nations. The world will be far more interconnected, leading to better and more affordable products, as well as ever better communication among nations.
But there's a big catch: just as favorable economic and social trends are likely to resume, many problems that have characterized recent decades are likely to get worse, too. Job instability, economic insecurity, a sense of turmoil, the fear that even when things seem good a hammer is about to fall—these are also part of the larger trend. (more)
I see it clearly, and the dots often lead to many of those projects going bankrupt, bought out for dimes on the dollar by somebody else who will either cash flow, or go bankrupt themselves.
I don't see how you fix a conapt complex with enormous HOA fees like that. Seem like the only way to stop the bleeding would be to shut it down and fully convert rental apts or some other use.
Spending that much on a house right now is a waste, though.
So make the banks drop the price. You never answered about bulldozing the glut of workers. I take it you want them to work for 25 cents an hour and live in barracks like in China.
The Greeks would rather strike. Jamie Dimon got a $17 million bonus. Why doesn't he buy more houses and hotels? Oh, that's right, Bear Stearns' hotels lost billions. JPM owns Bear Stearns. But JPM showed a huge profit. Maiden Lane (NY FED) showed a loss of billions. What the fuck happened? You want to get out the bulldozer, but in Greece they know bombs are faster.
Seem like the only way to stop the bleeding would be to shut it down and fully convert rental apts or some other use.
It's pretty easy to go from condos to rental apartments.
It was easy in the real estate boom to go from apartments to condos, and many have gone back to apartments already.
IMHO, a lot of the cost in the HOA fees in many of these types of buildings is fluff that people don't need, and often don't really want but sounded good in brochures. Getting rid of that might work in many cases, but not all.
A year from now, the media will be reporting that spg is defaulting on loans it obtained for the acquisition of ggp. I can see it now. Highly leveraged buyout, the spg execs will cherry pick the choicest properties to divest, pay themselves hefty bonuses for generating good returns for shareholders...and regulators will fail to notice pauses in the music as chairs are removed, one by one...until the music stops. Mark your calendars to short the lender in about a year.
You never answered about bulldozing the glut of workers.
Yogi, this makes the economy recover faster so those worker get jobs faster. Plus, bulldozing is job stimulus. People need to think big picture rather than lose the forest for the trees.
OK fine, let's find someone else to blame. I claim innocence too, since all I did was take a bunch of orphans' and widows' money during the tech boom when they foolishly allowed their mutual fund managers to buy my tech stocks at insanely overvalued prices. And, I did short the homebuilders and mortgage insurers in 2004, but I guess I could argue that I was on the side of the angels on that one, trying to keep prices down.
We're surrounded by candidates. How about these "nothing price won't fix" guys?
I bought GGP puts as per Reggie Middleton starting in the 40's. I had never bought options before. But Elvis says I lack vision and understanding. GGP went to zero.
There are just some people I like to berate more than others...
I find you amusing, if not somewhat infuriating. You instinctively resort to personal attacks the moment your thesis is questioned. It's like arguing with a 16 year old.
I find you amusing, if not somewhat infuriating. You instinctively resort to personal attacks the moment your thesis is questioned. It's like arguing with a 16 year old.
stop flaming me...whoops I mean stop blaming me...my mother is crouching tiger....she will kick your booty....I'm hidden dragon, so I've been a sleep and am not to blame.....
crouching tiger tells me not to mess with multi level marketing commentators....ump calls balk....runner advance to next thread
Give up, you can't win. The bulldozing to create jobs nonsense is the broken window fallacy: circular reasoning. Elvis gets infuriated every time it's brought up, because he wants to see clothes on the emperor so badly...
The bulldozing to create jobs nonsense is the broken window fallacy: circular reasoning.
But it's not bulldozing to create jobs, it's bulldozing to find a bottom. Which, while creating jobs, does not have the objective of creating jobs, just finding a bottom. Because everything would heal if we could just find a bottom.
The bulldozing to create jobs nonsense is the broken window fallacy: circular reasoning.
Chanting broken window fallacy over and over again reminds me of realtors. What type of cookies do you serve at your open houses? Or do you give people picnic baskets?
I read that it had become about 20% of GDP or something like that
I think that number is way over stated- I think it accounts for about 5% of GDP but 40% of corporate profits,. I also think that both those numbers were overstated because of the mark to market account in earlier years (now suspended) which had the impact of pulling forward a lot of income. My guess is that if there was honest accounting ( 90% of all activity is amongst and between financial institutions but the all make money !!!) much of the attraction of the industry would go away.
A big chunk of that industry also caters to the all the get rich quick day traders. Rather than creating casino jobs we have created finance jobs- same thing. As long as people want to get rich quick I don't see those jobs going away.
Because everything would heal if we could just find a bottom.
You might actually understand the argument if you had a firm understanding of cycles and bubbles. Their cause and effect. Their durations. Look at commodity charts to help you. They can be instructive. Remember that all asset classes move in broad cycles from greed to fear and back again. Occassionally, the cycles become bubbles. When they do, the rules change. You need to consider changing your "rules." If you don't, you will be just another Sebastian.
I think the real question for this decade is > are we better of with a frozen government or do we need a government committed to solving problems. If you believe in the former than this next decade is going to be great for you. Because I think we are going to get a frozen government. If yo think the later well then hang on because the sledding is going to get really rough.
Because everything would heal if we could just find a bottom.
I guess that pretty much sums up the two schools of thought- yours shared by most on this blog (including me) and policy makers who believe that you don't find a bottom as much as hit a bottom and it gets difficult to get up after that.
You might actually understand the argument if you had a firm understanding of cycles and bubbles. Their cause and effect. Their durations. Look at commodity charts to help you.
Given your extensive investigations into this matter, you should be quite familiar with the inherent truth that reducing supply does not influence demand, with the exception of a portion that may be waiting for prices to 'bottom'. If the trend is a long-term reduction in demand due to structural changes, artificially tinkering with supply will merely exacerbate the problem. Price may be elevate, but if demand remains fixed and production continues, price will fall again, and quicker than the previous decline.
you should be quite familiar with the inherent truth that reducing supply does not influence demand,
In a glutted market of NON-PERISHABLE goods, actively reducing supply is the necessary step to reach equilibrium in a reasonable, non-devastating time period. Especially when that non-perishable good has such a widely impacting and long-term deleterious effect on the worldwide economy. That is the point. Falsely inflating demand was the whole problem. Illusory demand bubbled and that has horrible consequences. Until we get close to equilibrium by reducing the supply side, things will not improve. That could be a long, long time.
Could make a good parody song.
Don't want no shooort sales around me
Are people buying rentals or what? Where's the cash flow?
If these numbers (in a distressed area) don't give the optimistic forecasters pause, I'm not sure what will.
Sales off 25% from a year ago. Distressed sales up to 69%. And many more foreclosures and short sales coming.
Yeah - I'm sure prices will rebound
best to all
Nothing like distress to bring in the vultures.
so, if this a L recession, and we never really recover, what do we do with all of the extra houses we built?
Sell 'em even cheaper?
Someday this war's gonna end...
(AP) - Police in the Greek capital say a bomb has exploded at the offices of American financial services firm J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., causing no injuries.
The blast occurred early evening Tuesday in an upscale area of central Athens, following a warning telephone call to an Athens newspaper.
Nemo wrote:
Sounds more like a country song; Bakersfield perhaps?
REOrange my short sale, I need some equity.
Citizen AllenM wrote:
Once the price gets low enough we won't have any homeless; Habitat for Humanity can find a new cause.
Imagine the possibilities in a world where housing takes only 10% of most people's incomes...
Citizen AllenM wrote:
Do you really need to ask?
Citizen AllenM wrote:
You raise a good point; I've wondered about what we're going to do about the finance industry. I think I read that it had become about 20% of GDP or something like that. We all know it isn't needed (not to the tune of 20% of GDP anyway), and if we take most of that away, and then don't have a real housing recovery for ten years or more, what then? Between housing and unneeded financial services, our GDP could take a ~20% hit and not recover for decades.
Thoughts?
"Distressed sales up to 69%."
Both the buyer and seller will need psychotherapy?
For seller: "You listened Suzanne, didn't you? Here are a couple of heavy-duty pills for you. Good luck."
For buyer: "When did your self-destructing behavior started, catching falling knives is not exactly healthy for you".
Never been a better time to buy (or sell)
CR,
You live in California so you should know that Sacramento is always for sale.
Site of the day:
Big Ideas come out of Big Pencils
Hmmm....Add at the bottom says "Are you obsessed with the Jonas Bros."? Which one wacko's of you is responsible for that?
TJ and The Bear wrote:
Imagine the possibilities in a world where housing takes only 10% of most people's incomes...
For FIRE and its passive interest rentier economy, that would be TEOTWAWKI... can't have that.
ResistanceIsFeudal wrote:
You understand that if you have a 401k or a pension, you're probably part of that class-
Bomb attack. Stocks go UP
Foiled bomb attack. Stocks go UP.
I think I see a pattern here!
I can see it. Off in the distance. A field filled with granite counter tops. Different colors, mostly black or tan. Row after row of them. Sometimes the blue pearl catches the sun and it is beautiful. Left behind. No one knows why. Once they held sinks. Now, its into the ground the settle.
Cinco-X wrote:
You understand that if you have a 401k or a pension, you're probably part of that class
Yep. WAITT applies here.
I have an ad for Remember Romance...for the Gaylord Texan...Gaylord, there's a name not being used much anymore...
Today is the first day in two weeks that didn't have a waterfall in the markets--up or down--at least once. It's quiet, almost too quiet.
nova wrote:
They must have held some religious significance for this culture.
Some distant tribe will build monuments out of granite counter tops. And you owe me a keyboard Nova.
The last flight of the great American Dodo?
Vonbek777 wrote:
That says alot about you. Are you Greek?
Brilliant, nova. Our Stonehenge
nova wrote:
Status as in peacock feathers, tatoos, facepaint, earrings,
mcmansions, pyramids, etc
Grandpa told me about the "Houses of Sacramento." He said "Boy. It was great at first. We needed to build our chicken coops and they was there. In fact, sometimes we used them houses for chicken coops."
"Then what happened Grandpa?"
"Ah shit boy. The drywall poisoned the birds and the damn things fell apart after a couple of summers."
nova wrote:
They could be used to make outhouse platforms. The hole is pre-cut. No need to let them go to waste...
lol...not to my knowledge...but my grandfather stopped researching the family tree when one member apparently married his granddaughter after his first wife died. Pretty sure there is an error in the records...but the family is from Arkansas and Alabama...one never knows.
September 14th, 2007:
What’s the real [foreclosure] ratio?
To get an idea, let’s focus exclusively on single family homes for a moment. According to the 2006 Sacramento County General Plan, in 2006 there were 149,368 single family homes in Sacramento County. In 2005, 21,103 single family homes sold through the MLS in the county. In 2006, the number was down to 13,597. Averaging those two years, we get 17,350, which is 11.62% of the 149,368 homes. (Or put another way, a home turns over on average every 8.6 years).
The number of foreclosures is rising every month, but let’s take stock of where we are now, as of September 14, 2007. How many unsold, foreclosed single family homes are inventory right now? The answer the MLS gives is 1,724 for bank-owned single family homes in Sacramento County. Dividing our 1,724 bank owned single family homes by our total number, 149,368, gives us 1.15%- Sacramento Realtor® John Lockwood
With rocket scientists like this in the industry is it any wonder Sacramento is a poster child?
Vonbek777 wrote:
Still used in real estate circles:
Long Beach Real Estate-Southern California Real Estate-Dick Gaylord
Vonbek777 wrote:
Is that the Utah branch?
More foreclosures coming
https://s3.amazonaws.com/CA_Foreclosure_Report/January+2010+CA+Foreclosure+Report.pdf
Kansas City Fed’s Hoenig: Rising Debt Could Spark Economic Crisis - Real Time Economics - WSJ
The Fed official [Hoenig ] signaled that hyperinflation–which occurs when consumer prices rise so quickly that a currency becomes worthless–was a possibility in the U.S. To those who say it could never happen in America, Hoenig said people should be reminded that “the unthinkable becomes possible when the economy is under severe stress.”
Hoenig said his 85-year old neighbor gave him a 500,000 German mark note. The neighbor told him that, in 1921, the note would have bought a house. In 1923, it wouldn’t even buy a loaf of bread
Thank you nurse
OT OT OT...but funny.
I am babysitting a 3 yr old. A nick kids show is on, I asked the little turtle what it was called "backyard barnyard" and as I was reading I heard one of the characters say "and now we see what it looks like when you put lipstick on a pig.....(pig puts lipstick on) mmmm very red!"
hehehehehehehehehe. Ok fess up, which one of you writes dialog for this kids show?
CalculatedRisk wrote:
And don't forget the recent analysis that determined that 70% of all mods will eventually fail as well.
Is there a correlation between short sales, fashion and taxes?
January retail worst in fifteen years - Fashion news, jobs, fashion career, directory, job board FashionUnited, network, design, London, UK
City collects less revenue from taxes | AVALANCHE-JOURNAL
Christmas sales figures worse than expected |
Business |
guardian.co.uk
Year on year,it was the weakest December for more than a decade with sales volumes up just 2.1%. That is the lowest annual growth in December since 1998
Cinco-X wrote:
Sigh. Drat. OUted. hehehe.
Actually it could very well be me...I am posting from a computer that is used by the 12 and 14 yr old so.......something they looked at could have brought such evil to CR.
REBear wrote:
Thanks for that little ray of sunshine, REBear. Eek.
Rob Dawg wrote:
And, yet, people thinking that bulldozing is a bad idea. Those are the same people who go to an all-you-can-eat buffet and won't leave until all the food is gone. Wasting is necessary sometimes.
nova wrote:
Must...invest....in...extra keyboards, damn you you funny man.
Yes, many years of
“With delinquent payments rising, foreclosures slowing, and foreclosure alternatives failing,” says Sean
O’Toole, Founder and CEO of ForeclosureRadar.com, “it appears the foreclosure crisis will be with us for
many years to come”.
More music for patient renters and savers. Now if only they'd stop goosing prices with my tax dollars.
Rob Dawg wrote:
Ray of sunshine on the horizon!
Elvis wrote:
Those are the same people who go to an all-you-can-eat buffet and won't leave until all the food is gone. Wasting is necessary sometimes.
Buffet doesn't seem the all-you-can-eat sort of guy, more the as-little-as-you-can-eat-publicly-and-still-be-gluttonous guy.
They're coming down the stretch. It's hyperinflation by a nose. Mad Max coming on strong, and Deflation looking weary. If you're not simultaneously buying physical PMs and deflation hedges (Puts), you haven't been paying attention.
GWB was right. This sucker is going down.
Looks to me like the "typically motivated" seller IS desprate. Logically, shouldn't they start ignoring conventional when looking for comps because they represent an atypically undermotivated seller.
Gaylord, there's a name not being used much anymore...
Unless you're an Episcopalian.
If you're depressed or very distressed make sure and take
pills so they can keep on
Ford lays off 900 workers at Mustang plant | Deseret News
Shadow Inventory of Homes to Take Nearly 3 Years to Clear: S&P « HousingWire
"S&P estimates the inventory to equal a 33-month supply of homes. Analysts added the estimate is actually conservative, as they did not assume homes not showing signs of distress would default and push the overhang of supply even further."
Time for homebuilders to find another line of work.
Elvis wrote:
Elvis (profile) wrote on Wed, 12/3/2008 - 2:17 pm
To revitalize the US housing market the Treasury would need to bulldoze 3.5M homes.
Belated welcome to the dark side Elvis.
Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis: Geithner and JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon's Parade of Lies Exposed
Inflation? Where, exactly, are you seeing that?
It has proven to be hard for unemployed people to pay their mortgages. The 'Great Jobless Recovery' doesn't seem to help employment very much.
~splat
Gavshire Hathaway wrote:
Today's economy is a bulimic and a morbidly obese person standing on a scale together, dividing by two and declaring themselves an ideal weight.
Rob Dawg wrote:
Lesser of two evils. Stagnate the economy for 10+ years or use money to buy and bulldoze foreclosed homes? They chose to give the money to the banks and nothing was solved. I choose to tackle the problem from its root cause and accelerate the eventual recovery. (BTW, I really do enjoy when people disagree with me. It makes me much more comfortable that I am correct.)
Sacramento cries out in its need for jobs and a House Fluffer is there to help!
There are no official credentials for this line of work. There is no independent organization that monitors whether a Home Stager or House Fluffer deals with their clients professionally or the quality or effectiveness of their work.
While some home stagers or house fluffers claim to be "accredited" there is no independent organization that grants such accreditation.
Elvis wrote:
Nothing price won't fix...
Re movie references.
Took the youngest to "Percy Jackson: Lightning Thief" yesterday afternoon.
The three young heroes must travel to see Hades but to get there, have to pay the boatman.
The satyr gives him $170 in USD but the money just catches fire in the boatman's hand and he stares at them. Then Jackson gives him five gold drachma that they took from Medusa and went on their way across.
Didn't stick around to see the credits, but suspect that Nova did some of the re-write. Or Mish.
Vonbek777 wrote:
Hey! That goes on lots of places, and not just in my home state
Maine is famous for it, and we even have some of that crap going on a few towns away here in MA-
Gavshire Hathaway wrote:
I'm practicing me Aussie accent, wearin' lots of leather and asking people to call me 'Bruce'.
~splat
ps. No member of the faculty is to maltreat the Abbos in any way whatsoever..... if there's anyone watching.
Homedad,
If I was writing it they would have dropped a handful of shiny .45 rounds into his hand.
I'm in a Christmas spirit today:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704041504575044481952867228.html?mod=googlenews_wsj
Rob Dawg wrote:
Are we really reduced to knocking down houses in order to build more houses? Buying up used cars so that people will buy more cars? Buying up debt so that bankers can issue more debt?
I understand the sentiment, I really do. But all of that requires the government to take on more debt, which requires creditors willing to lend it. If the creditors don't lend it, the government can print it, but only to a certain point before it begins interfering with economic exchanges and reducing demand for all products.
CaptainMorgan wrote:
Yes. Price continues to collapse (houses, paper, etc...) and everything else does around it. Not the outcome that most people want. I'm sure some militias would be happy, though.
the-555000-student-loan-burden: Personal Finance News from Yahoo! Finance
noob goldberg wrote:
If you think that is the point, you don't get it.
when do we rename it "Suckramento"?
Elvis wrote:
Why not just force'em out and let the market clear'em -- one day auction, no minimum bids, bulldozing those that no one wants?
that sounds like the perfect job for young Mr. Serin
Elvis wrote:
Right, the point is to 'bottom'.
Elvis wrote:
I've got my John Birch society membership application ready to drop in the mail just in case it gets really bad.
If you're going hang with the Armageddon wackos you might as well pick the KEEEERAZIEST ones...
~splat
OT?
YouTube - Top Gear - General Motors hy wire
The problem with just bulldozing homes is that there are going to be a ton of people with no place to live. Bulldoze them to find an equilibrium point for housing prices and there might not be enough shelter for the destitute. At least, people can go bando and if the homesteader laws were to be widely adopted, then people would be able to have a place to live and neighborhoods might not totally self-destruct. Of course, if my neighbors were going bando in neighboring houses, I'd honestly give serious thought to ruthless default and screw the bank.
But at least there's plenty of shelter.
noob goldberg wrote:
Ok. well, what's the safe word then mr smarty? ;D
TJ and The Bear wrote:
I like the chicken coop approach myself.
~splat
That's easy. The Federal Reserve prints money - promising to pull back later - , hands it to the banks (which magically sanitizes it) and then the banks buy treasuries. Then the government takes the money and buys clunkers, or tears down houses, debt, or whatever.
Speed wrote:
With a fiat currency inflation is always a choice. There's two potential outcomes and a bald guy at the switch. To monetize or not monetize is a choice. Repudiation is a certainty.
Casey the color coordinator? Brilliant. RD, can you reach out to him?
homedad43 wrote:
What's wrong with Hoovervilles 2010 ? They were very popular back in the day.
~splat
Time for homebuilders to find another line of work.
Home Builders Ramping Up Construction to Beat Tax Credit Deadline...
homedad43 wrote:
That is a problem that doesn't go away.
If I was writing it they would have dropped a handful of shiny .45 rounds into his hand.
Perhaps, but doesn't go with the whole Greek meme.
Any word on your movie BTW?
Would be cool to have a bar scene with lots of extras. Hint.
GOod news! Greece has hire Stihlitz to help with their finances.
Like calling an arsonist to help put out the fire.
NateTG wrote:
Well, it's worked so far. Keep doing what's working, I guess.
But, like the mantra that housing prices can never fall, the idea that treasury demand is inexhaustible is just as prevalent.
tncubsfan wrote:
It's becomming like some nightmare Soviet style planned economy. When's the new 5 year plan announced.
~splat
Homedad,
Alas, no. The NY Agent said it wasn't a good fit for him. Movie dude said he would get back to me.
RE: Sacramento. Some properties in the low end have reached fair value and are now in overshoot territory, but properties in the mid and upper range are still hanging high - some still need a 50% haircut.
noob goldberg wrote:
Do you understand cycles? Ever look at commodity charts? I highly recommend it.
Hey Noob, just had a thought. To take the 'bottom' thought a step further, dare I say Broward-esque, that the would-be real estate moguls in this wonderful delightful burgh called sacramento really do not have any leaning to 'bottom', they think they are the master of the real estate universe....no bottoms there. I guess the way forward for sacramento is to start finding volunteers to train them, hard.
@ Elvis
Wouldn't it be cheaper to just have the government buy them, take them off the market, and maintain them for 5 or 10 years? As opposed to buying them and bulldozing them? Think of the all the new jobs we could create in "empty house maintenance".
noob goldberg wrote:
Pretty much appears that way doesn't it?
After the earthquake of 1906 how did San Francisco stop the ensuing fires? They blew some up to save the rest. We are in a national F.I.R.E. storm and blowing up some houses may be the only solution.
homedad43 wrote:
Oooh. Me too me toooooooo!
Ps Homedad43 a thread a way long time ago i posted about captain and tenille and other proud music of the 70's and you were horrified! hahahahah, mission accomplished. I was out to horrify. bad music, bad!
homedad43 wrote:
Probably lacks the gods transforming into animals and having 'relations' with humans too. What's the point of a good Greek themed story without all the REALLY questionable bits of their culture ??
So I heard the story revolves around the kids having to pay for their parents, the gods, having mortgaged Mount Olympus for a wildly outrageous and unsustainable lifestyle ? The kids having to journey to hades, where the banksters live, to obtain the deed from the great beast of mortgate-servicers.
~splat
Yes.
(Blunt, I know. But man, taste the
!!!!!)
energyecon re the student loan story.
The only good news for this woman is that Congress has amended student debt handling. In twenty-five years, the unpaid balance can be discharged. Flip side is that the law now requires that the unpaid balance be taxed as a windfall.
Precisely what the hell was she thinking?
If you are going to medical school, you need to be a surgeon or some other type of lucrative specialist or it is a financial gamble. That or work off your loans/get them forgiven in a small town for awhile.
Ps Homedad43 a thread a way long time ago i posted about captain and tenille and other proud music of the 70's and you were horrified! hahahahah, mission accomplished. I was out to horrify. bad music, bad!
I am greatly relieved...
And now back to the laundry.
Sigh.
MLM wrote:
If there is a huge supply and low demand, prices will still fall and the economy will still collapse. There would be little incentive to buy if you know that prices will collapse again once the gov't houses are back on the market.
noob goldberg wrote:
It's that, or allow the expected return on capital to decline.
splat wrote:
Wouldn't it be great if the FED announced their re-entry into the MBS market on May 1, 2010.
threetorches wrote:
If that's the case then we might as well turn out the lights and give up. Feeding that kind of economic downward spiral does nothing but delay the inevitable.
Elvis wrote:
The only reason I can see for not bulldozing is that with all of these worries about hyperinflation, it might be good to keep supply high to keep housing prices from going haywire-
Yalt wrote:
No one ever pays attention to real returns, only nominal ones.
I'm sure you've all read this:
Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis: 9,500 Shuttered Stores In Sacramento Area: "Everyone Perfectly Content With Less"
Sacramento is bloated with empty retail and office space. FT has been obsessing over CRE:
FT Alphaville » Now the Australians are worried about US CRE
Debelle is quite concerned with the exposure of what he described as the “second tier (and beyond)” of the US financial system to loan portfolios that are “very regionally concentrated with a sizable weighting to commercial property.”
Does the Fed have enough room left to take on the coming wave of CMBS?
Elvis wrote:
They could hold all of them off the market for 5 years, then sell 300K per year for 10 years. That's not going to crash the market, and it beats the hell out of burying them (unless you're a homebuilder, I guess).
today just feels like another one of those space creating days......
On another topic:
Is The Federal Reserve Secretly Bailing Out Greece?
Ciao
MS
creditcriminalslovetarp wrote:
So far only a 150 million volume on the Dow. With it being up +180 or so, I would have expected a little stronger participation.
I don't want any livable homes bulldozed until renters get the chance to pick them up dirt cheap. Why should non-homeowners artificially prop up the equity of homeowners? You want to get this over quick then let prices fall to market clearing levels NOW.
Otherwise, I see no reason to limit bulldozing to unoccupied homes.
noob goldberg wrote:
You're probably right, but I was thinking in terms of real returns.
noob-
alot less competition around to participate-from even a year ago-...but I know what you mean...
Ciao
MS
CR: The mathematical steel-toed jackboot to your MSM-fueled-hopium-dream groin.
creditcriminalslovetarp wrote:
Dollar down = market up.
Yen tanking again, probably over the BOJ's comments that it's powerless to stop deflation.
Carry trade Game On!
I've been in a coma for a bit and guess I missed GM...
https://www.motorsliquidation.com/ ????
FT.com / UK / Economy & Trade - Sharp rise in UK ‘underemployed’
Ford to cut shift, 900 jobs at Michigan plant
| Reuters
Elvis wrote:
Only if you are trying to prop up MBS and derivatives. In a sane market, prices fall and the renters who saved buy from the idiots that bought at unsustainable prices. The only need for buldozing is in economic dead zone like Detroit.
Written like renters talking their book. Everyone wants 'theirs' nobody wants pain.
MS wrote:
10 minutes left and we'll beat 200 million on the Dow, but nothing special.
But yeah, tough to know how much is simply due to fewer robots beating each other up.
bearly wrote:
Weeeeelllllll...........arsonist DO have a good understanding of the fire. Why do you think so many arsonists are also firemen?
Super moonshot
TJ +1000, I think bulldozing homes when people are priced out of markets and forced to shack up with extended family is stupid, especially since the main goal is to protect homeowners faux-wealth.
"Yen tanking again, probably over the BOJ's comments that it's powerless to stop deflation."
Color me confused. If the BOJ expects deflation, shouldn't the expected value, and thus the market value, of the Yen go up?
Cinco-X wrote:
Weeeeelllllll...........arsonist DO have a good understanding of the fire. Why do you think so many arsonists are also firemen?
Sustainable, predictable business model. Now if you could just sell derivatives on your insider knowledge...
MLM wrote:
No-
And all the GDP, and all the "value"-
Eric wrote:
+1.
Rob Dawg wrote:
When I said that 8mos. ago, most everyone thought I was wacko. Who da whacko's now!
NateTG wrote:
Apparently everyone wants no pain, and free bulldozing services.
Wait, do you own a bulldozer?
As a renter I would prefer stability, both in the neighborhood and the local government over huge price declines. Some things you can't put a price on.
A charming quote from a Lansner blog post on restarting some hi-rise condo sales in Orange County CA:
Mmmm, traffic noise! I'm sold!
splat wrote:
I thought that was Wotan and Valhalla? Maybe not-
nate-
No....on the contrary. The green light was given to speed up the printing press in many locations by that statement... We must be close to one of those 'events'-take your pick as to which one it is....there are literally hundreds of them.
Cia
MS
Just jaw dropping, the SPG + GGP deal. GGP already 10% premium to the buyout bid.
Blackhalo wrote:
You assume that there is a sane market. Bad assumption.
RATM wrote:
That is not the main goal. Repeat a thousand times. That is not the main goal. Quit thinking like that.
dawg-
yes but not really surprising...GGP gets taken off the books just before it can implode..they are just parking it ala ML, CFC, etc.
Ciao
MS
Cinco-X wrote:
We still think you are a whacko, now you are a right whacko.
If you recall I said that the result of of government getting involved in the housing market would ultimately devolve to the transit model where we have decades of exactly this same behavior.
NateTG wrote:
And why is it that renters who chose not to participate in this fiasco be forced to endure pain? They (i.e. we) should have our hands on the controls of the rack used for the banksters and their enablers.
Rob Dawg wrote:
You're just an old fogy. You don't understand the new (Fed powered) math.
MS wrote:
This may be, MS.
MS wrote:
From SPGs perspective it is better to buy the house next door than let the market set the price and thus establish a comp. It just frosts me that this level of manipulation is possible.
Elvis wrote:
No, I do not make that assumption at all, and am a bit annoyed at the distortion that brings about the stupidity, of bulldozers, to make room for more ponzi.
Cinco-X wrote:
Because you foolishly gave your 401K and pension money to people who "invested" it in home mortgages. And, you didn't do enough to change the political system that made all this possible.
noob goldberg
if you want to watch: 2010 Winter Olympics - Watch Online - News, Results, Photos and Video - CTV Olympics
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Cinco-X wrote:
And why is it that renters who chose not to participate in this fiasco be forced to endure pain?
Whoever has the real asset wealth will be forced to support those with the fake asset wealth. Ironically, this means the fake asset wealth will become real asset wealth, and the real asset wealth holders will become poor. The joys of political pressure and demographic buy-in...
Blackhalo wrote:
Bulldozers and some type of tight lending restrictions must go hand in hand. Bulldozers only knock down the stupidity of the last decade. Like getting EEEEEEEE breast enlargements removed.
see my post end of previous thread.....this was the way for spg to prop themselves from asset price discovery.....
me too.....I realize I can't even come up with some of the ways these people put off ANY return to normal valuations.......... on anything.
Ciao
MS
Daniela Anschutz-Thoms medal jinx - German speed skater finishes fourth for 15th time - News - Bild.de
mlm, thats bs...
how can a renter do anything to change the system....
what if they didn't give to 401k...
go back to your cake sale....
Elvis wrote:
"Nice breasts!"
"Thanks. I just had them reduced."
back to 1 SPY = 1 GLD
Funny that..
Ciao
MS
The tax credit cost us something like $43,000 per extra house sold, and HAMP cost how much per modification?
Bulldozing would be similar when you quit pretending it's free.
Cities already have the ability to bulldoze the ones they own, and the new ones are owned by banks mostly, and they won't let you bulldoze them for free.
Elvis wrote:
Whatever. If it looks like a duck and quacks like a duck...
RATM wrote:
If there weren't 20-30 Million unoccupied housing units out there it would be one thing. At this point, the maintenance on these unoccupied, non-producing units is a net negative to the economy. It's like the late '70s, and Detroit had a years worth of unsold cars parked in any available space they could find around Detroit. They couldn't restart production will all of that inventory on hand, but folks couldn't buy cars even at discounted prices since the unemployed autoworkers had such a ripple effect on the rest of the economy. Now, if you increase the "value" of those cars by a factor of 50, you 'd see how all of this excess demand is affecting our economy now.
ResistanceIsFeudal wrote:
I don't know any firemen, but....well I read a book about it
elvis
you are unique...did you just reply to your own comment?
Elvis wrote:
Think about the unintended consequences of that for a minute.
CaptainMorgan wrote:
I'm not pretending it is free. Although, I do believe it would be a temporary job stimulus. Not following you, but you must be drunk given your name.
RATM wrote:
You must be a duck. Or something like that.
OT, an alternative to standard housing, according to article it's getting to be more popular Local boaters find crafty way to live cheaply - The Boston Globe
I hate Man U..... Shrek just put them up on AC.
Ciao
MS
"$415,000 to $779,000, plus homeowner association (HOA) dues ranging from $915 to $965 a month."
Jaw-dropping, even if it you were next to the 405 in someplace pricey like Brentwood. The bubble hasn't even begun to pop. The 405 in mid-OC is a ten-lane beast, unless I'm mistaken.
CaptainMorgan wrote:
That is why I kept it vague. Leverage is the issue.
Rob Dawg wrote:
Why am I a whacko? Because I'm a die hard Conservative Republican who chooses to live in MA? Hah! Maybe I'm just a contrarian
As for your comments at the time, I recall that you were one of the few that I generally agreed with.
creditcriminalslovetarp wrote:
Guess they didn't get out in the streets and march enough. Didn't work within the political process enough. Etc. Etc.
My cake eating point being that we are all in this together, and there's no one who wasn't to some extent or another part of the problem (except maybe noob's kids...).
MLM wrote:
The fact that my 201k took a hit should be enough pain. Now it YOUR turn
mock turtle wrote:
But, of course.
ResistanceIsFeudal wrote:
I don't like the way this is going.......
I was at South Coast Plaza this weekend on V-day. There was a huge line out the door and around the storefront at Tiffany's. It looked like they were having some sort of V-day promotion, but I've never seen that kind of line in front of Tiffany's before. I have to visit this blog every day to remind myself what the world outside the OC bubble looks like.
Oh, the best part of those luxury high rise condos off the 405 is that you're in the Santa Ana school district. Lol.
Cities already have the ability to bulldoze the ones they own, and the new ones are owned by banks mostly, and they won't let you bulldoze them for free.
What, you never heard of M&M domain? Seize them for taxes. It's SOP here.
Cinco-X wrote:
Uhh, I'm good. I say it's creditcriminals turn -- wasn't he enabling people to get car loans who probably shouldn't have?
That's actually the line for the cheaper room. Tiffany's gets those on v-day and xmas. I feel bad for those guys, much as I pitied the mid-management guys with laptops on airplanes when I would fly home for holidays from college.
But, yes, it does say something that people still line up to blow 3 bills on silver when they could get CZ. Give it a few years.
mock turtle wrote:
Damn! He forgot to change aliases to Slumdog.....
ResistanceIsFeudal wrote:
That's why you should own some fake assets to go with your real assets.
Cinco-X wrote:
I don't like how the story ends either. But that's inevitably the outcome with the ascendance of the political class (the "looters") given the power to create fiat. Arguably giving it to the capitalist-class instead worked pretty well despite some nasty side effects, but now the capitalist-class becomes the political class via regulatory capture and the lobbyist system, moving from productive capital activity to passive collection of rents.
I don't like the way this is going.......
I didn't really follow that. I do know there 6 nice houses in the neighborhood next to mine with price tags from $600,000 to $900,000 that are empty that somebody could live in. Bulldozing them would be a waste. Bulldozing only to rebuild is pointless make-work. If it doesn't need done, let people have more free time. Protecting faux-wealth by destruction only forces people to do unnecessary work, and life is short. Why not let people enjoy it without slaving away for Ben's printed greens to purchase your house from you at the price you like when you decide to move?
MLM wrote:
My boy's been flipping houses since he was two. I'm gushing with pride.
MLM wrote:
interesting take..I sure would like to know how the little lady on the street was part of the problem....she has to worry about food, not protesting...
but since your a bullish on grouping everyone together today, theme music...
YouTube - Bulls On Parade - Rage Against The Machine
maybe we all need to study greek....they seem to follow a righteous path....
Elvis wrote:
I'm well aware of the leverage issue. I have commented we need to get to a more prudent lending standard, but can't go there overnight without severe consequences.
Your bulldozing plan is vague as well, too many details would need to be sorted out before it's a plan and not a whacko idea.
The real problem with it is the one I've already stated, the banks own many of the newer "excessive" housing inventory, and won't give it away for free.
So what is left is property seized for taxes, and shown to have little value at auction. Which is properties highly likely to already be bulldozed due to code issues. Many cities besides Detroit bulldoze houses, Dallas included.
Sounds like Florida.
Anonymous Bosch wrote:
I thought M&M domain was the act of seizing delicious candy-covered chocolates.
RATM wrote:
What is the land worth? How much of the materials are salvagable? It is not a complete waste. Spending that much on a house right now is a waste, though.
RATM wrote:
Well duh......it's the 'excess' supply that's at issue. Think about it. California is probably the only state that could actually use 20 million homes. That's a greater supply than any other state in the country could actually use.
Anonymous Bosch wrote:
It's standard pretty much everywhere.
Why would a city that needs tax money pay to bulldoze when they can sell it and recoup at least some of the money owed?
Much of the housing in Detroit is an extreme case where the back taxes owed exceed what the market will bear at auction, even at a $500 starting bid. That is not the case in many places.
noob goldberg wrote:
Is he the kid on the E-Trade commercials? I love those; let me show you my shocked face; HUH!!!!!!
Cinco-X wrote:
It greatly disturbs me when he talks on his crackberry while I'm changing his diaper. The boy's going to give himself a brain tumor the size of a grapefruit.
CaptainMorgan wrote:
And nobody is asking them to give it away for free. Just because there is no detailed, step-by-step execution plan doesn't mean the concept isn't needed and won't work. Why would I waste my time doing that? You must plan every minute when you are on vacation. Am I right?
noob goldberg wrote:
Is that some clever variant of eminent domain? Masturbation and masochism domain? Are you still the "Master of your domain"?
No, that, as Dawg pointed out for us, makes you a right whacko.
Who says we don't have an industrial policy?
YouTube - Obama Backs Loans for New Nuclear Plant
Glad I held on to those uranium stocks.
Uranium Stocks Index (*URANM) at tickerspy.com
noob goldberg wrote:
Kids today are too connected-
The saying is "hard cases make bad law", and it means that extrapolating a rule from a unique set of facts ("stare decisis", e.g.) does not work all that well when the facts of a case are unusual, unclear, or indeterminable.
Cinco-X wrote:
You claim it is excess supply. If houses are so plentiful why can't people have multiple homes instead of bulldozing? Because you wouldn't like the price of those homes sans bulldozing?
RATM wrote:
dinner!!
Because you wouldn't like the price of those homes sans bulldozing?
Winner, winner,
"an extreme case where the back taxes owed exceed what the market will bear "
Connect the dots between detroit, the miami condo stuck in the HOA trap and the Lennar project linked above by Fair Econ.
We're reaching a tipping point where any number of things (including personal income eventually) just can't support the pyramid of HOA fees, property taxes, etc, on top of it.
Even a BBAD like me can recognize PEAK DEBT when I see it. But that debt isn't just booked debt by a government entity, consumer debt, mortgage debt - it is entitlement debt, and badly-designed HOAs show what happens when entitlements face the sunlight of a real market.
RATM wrote:
They apparently can't make the payments.
Housing Reports: Another Wave of Distressed Sales
Cinco-X wrote:
Nothing price won't fix.
RATM wrote:
Many people do because they can afford it. Don't bulldoze those homes. The excess housing is roughly 4 million. Empty homes are a multiple of that. We don't need to raze all the empty homes.
greenchutes wrote:
Well, the Koolaid is still flowing. The bubble is only still on if there are enough fools about to buy them (and fools/crooks to loan them money).
Mlm,
nope, used credit filters to weed them out..very easy to do...dti, pti, installment highs, revolving highs, no repos last 4 years and 100% or less ltv...
volume+yield-default % ....hence why I'm unemployed, my volume dropped while my default % was nil....stopped buying credit criminals.....walked out of new century financial in 99, triad car loans fired me for not taking bad loans from s. calif dealer in 2002...opened up a credit filtering software for dealers via the web in 03....
I did lose lots on shorting real estate so yes I contributed.....
foul ball...3-2 count....
RATM wrote:
If we make more dollars, things are cheaper, right?
RATM wrote:
Already fixed:
20216 Kentucky, Detroit, MI, 48221 - MLS #30752605 - Single Family Home real estate - REALTOR.com®
19429 Albany St, Detroit, MI, 48234 - MLS #210017211 - Single Family Home real estate - REALTOR.com®
20216 Kentucky, Detroit, MI, 48221 - MLS #30752605 - Single Family Home real estate - REALTOR.com®
Here's the main page; just follow the links and choose "priced lot to high":
Detroit real estate & Detroit homes for sale | Single family homes,Condos,Townhomes,Co-ops - REALTOR.com®
greenchutes wrote:
I see it clearly, and the dots often lead to many of those projects going bankrupt, bought out for dimes on the dollar by somebody else who will either cash flow, or go bankrupt themselves.
Cinco-X wrote:
Already fixed:
20216 Kentucky, Detroit, MI, 48221 - MLS #30752605 - Single Family Home real estate - REALTOR.com®
19429 Albany St, Detroit, MI, 48234 - MLS #210017211 - Single Family Home real estate - REALTOR.com®
20216 Kentucky, Detroit, MI, 48221 - MLS #30752605 - Single Family Home real estate - REALTOR.com®
I CAN HAZ EQUITEE?
Why the Economic Recovery Will Hurt Like Hell - Newsweek.com
CaptainMorgan wrote:
I don't see how you fix a conapt complex with enormous HOA fees like that. Seem like the only way to stop the bleeding would be to shut it down and fully convert rental apts or some other use.
So make the banks drop the price. You never answered about bulldozing the glut of workers. I take it you want them to work for 25 cents an hour and live in barracks like in China.
The Greeks would rather strike. Jamie Dimon got a $17 million bonus. Why doesn't he buy more houses and hotels? Oh, that's right, Bear Stearns' hotels lost billions. JPM owns Bear Stearns. But JPM showed a huge profit. Maiden Lane (NY FED) showed a loss of billions. What the fuck happened? You want to get out the bulldozer, but in Greece they know bombs are faster.
ResistanceIsFeudal wrote:
Sure; you'll have 100% equity on those home walking out the door......Watch out for the one that's burned out in the back-
CaptainMorgan wrote:
Dimes on a bubble are worth pennies.
sm_landlord wrote:
It's pretty easy to go from condos to rental apartments.
It was easy in the real estate boom to go from apartments to condos, and many have gone back to apartments already.
IMHO, a lot of the cost in the HOA fees in many of these types of buildings is fluff that people don't need, and often don't really want but sounded good in brochures. Getting rid of that might work in many cases, but not all.
A year from now, the media will be reporting that spg is defaulting on loans it obtained for the acquisition of ggp. I can see it now. Highly leveraged buyout, the spg execs will cherry pick the choicest properties to divest, pay themselves hefty bonuses for generating good returns for shareholders...and regulators will fail to notice pauses in the music as chairs are removed, one by one...until the music stops. Mark your calendars to short the lender in about a year.
You keep it up Elvis and the open source currency is going to make an exception to free licensing and use just for you.
1 currency now -yogi wrote:
Yogi, this makes the economy recover faster so those worker get jobs faster. Plus, bulldozing is job stimulus. People need to think big picture rather than lose the forest for the trees.
Cinco-X wrote:
lawyerliz wrote:
Ummmmm...no I didn't; oops! yes I did, but you took it out of context
creditcriminalslovetarp wrote:
OK fine, let's find someone else to blame. I claim innocence too, since all I did was take a bunch of orphans' and widows' money during the tech boom when they foolishly allowed their mutual fund managers to buy my tech stocks at insanely overvalued prices. And, I did short the homebuilders and mortgage insurers in 2004, but I guess I could argue that I was on the side of the angels on that one, trying to keep prices down.
We're surrounded by candidates. How about these "nothing price won't fix" guys?
If we build glass houses, we could just pay people to break the windows...
MLM wrote:
Sorry. You must be broke.
Elvis wrote:
No, but I did learn a lot about margin calls and patience. It all worked out in the end.
I bought GGP puts as per Reggie Middleton starting in the 40's. I had never bought options before. But Elvis says I lack vision and understanding. GGP went to zero.
MLM wrote:
Get 'em boys!
1 currency now -yogi wrote:
Even a blind hog finds an acorn once in awhile.
Elvis wrote:
Every single time I've raised this point you've berated me. I'm beginning to think you're a little crazy.
noob goldberg wrote:
There are just some people I like to berate more than others...
Elvis wrote:
I find you amusing, if not somewhat infuriating. You instinctively resort to personal attacks the moment your thesis is questioned. It's like arguing with a 16 year old.
noob goldberg wrote:
Hmmm....you may be onto something there-
noob goldberg wrote:
I prefer attacking personally since impersonal attacks are so, well, impersonal.
stop flaming me...whoops I mean stop blaming me...my mother is crouching tiger....she will kick your booty....I'm hidden dragon, so I've been a sleep and am not to blame.....
crouching tiger tells me not to mess with multi level marketing commentators....ump calls balk....runner advance to next thread
noob goldberg wrote:
A vague idea and a thesis are two different things.
You must be drunk.
Give up, you can't win. The bulldozing to create jobs nonsense is the broken window fallacy: circular reasoning. Elvis gets infuriated every time it's brought up, because he wants to see clothes on the emperor so badly...
1 currency now -yogi wrote:
But it's not bulldozing to create jobs, it's bulldozing to find a bottom. Which, while creating jobs, does not have the objective of creating jobs, just finding a bottom. Because everything would heal if we could just find a bottom.
For speedy comebacks, Elvis is king.
When touting his plan for speedy recovery, just the old emperor.
1 currency now -yogi wrote:
Chanting broken window fallacy over and over again reminds me of realtors. What type of cookies do you serve at your open houses? Or do you give people picnic baskets?
CaptainMorgan wrote:
No. But that would have really helped at the office today.
Why stop there, just nuke all the continents, Dr. Strangelove. Fastest and surest bottom.
Cinco-X wrote:
I think that number is way over stated- I think it accounts for about 5% of GDP but 40% of corporate profits,. I also think that both those numbers were overstated because of the mark to market account in earlier years (now suspended) which had the impact of pulling forward a lot of income. My guess is that if there was honest accounting ( 90% of all activity is amongst and between financial institutions but the all make money !!!) much of the attraction of the industry would go away.
A big chunk of that industry also caters to the all the get rich quick day traders. Rather than creating casino jobs we have created finance jobs- same thing. As long as people want to get rich quick I don't see those jobs going away.
If you said blow up all the banks, Greek style, to find a financial bottom, I'd still disagree.
There are way too many bank branches. I have 10 JPM's within a half-mile radius. Not counting Wachovia.
TEN. Where's your bankdozer?
1 currency now -yogi wrote:
Now that's some broken windows, doggone it.
As far as fastest and surest bottoms, I'm almost certain that would be my ex-girlfriend Vicki.
noob goldberg wrote:
You might actually understand the argument if you had a firm understanding of cycles and bubbles. Their cause and effect. Their durations. Look at commodity charts to help you. They can be instructive. Remember that all asset classes move in broad cycles from greed to fear and back again. Occassionally, the cycles become bubbles. When they do, the rules change. You need to consider changing your "rules." If you don't, you will be just another Sebastian.
I think the real question for this decade is > are we better of with a frozen government or do we need a government committed to solving problems. If you believe in the former than this next decade is going to be great for you. Because I think we are going to get a frozen government. If yo think the later well then hang on because the sledding is going to get really rough.
noob goldberg wrote:
I guess that pretty much sums up the two schools of thought- yours shared by most on this blog (including me) and policy makers who believe that you don't find a bottom as much as hit a bottom and it gets difficult to get up after that.
crazyv wrote:
crazyv, I think noob was trying to mock me on that one. I'm the one saying we need to find a bottom first before we can recover.
Elvis wrote:
Given your extensive investigations into this matter, you should be quite familiar with the inherent truth that reducing supply does not influence demand, with the exception of a portion that may be waiting for prices to 'bottom'. If the trend is a long-term reduction in demand due to structural changes, artificially tinkering with supply will merely exacerbate the problem. Price may be elevate, but if demand remains fixed and production continues, price will fall again, and quicker than the previous decline.
noob goldberg wrote:
In a glutted market of NON-PERISHABLE goods, actively reducing supply is the necessary step to reach equilibrium in a reasonable, non-devastating time period. Especially when that non-perishable good has such a widely impacting and long-term deleterious effect on the worldwide economy. That is the point. Falsely inflating demand was the whole problem. Illusory demand bubbled and that has horrible consequences. Until we get close to equilibrium by reducing the supply side, things will not improve. That could be a long, long time.