Crap, yah go back to 1982 maybe 84 and the yield on the 10 year was almost 16% and then yah go back to Oct 2008 or so and the yield was maybe 2.25% and the difference between the two is related to a loss of faith in our markets today and the belief that the Fed will continue to not be trustworthy, but yet, they remain in place as the only game in town .... but, isn't there news of failed auctions lately where China and the other kids may not be as willing to go along with this corruption in our Treasury? That said, how will Treasury buy itself out of the debt it created with all its programs? That can't push rates high, as in 1983 -- more likely, we stay right where we are with weaker demand and a lot more cash burn. Mortgages will remain under pressure for a long time and I doubt if rates would go much above 5.5.

Seriously though, is 50 to 100 basis points really going to make that big a difference? Everyone who could fog a mirror (that isn't waiting for sanity to return to the market) has already taken advantage of the 'historically low rates' right? Is 5.5% vs 5% really going to make that big a difference?

Doc Holliday wrote: redact.

from: German Bonds Little Changed as Investors Await Greek Details - BusinessWeek

The yield on the 10-year bund, Europe’s benchmark security, was at 3.19 percent as of 8:55 a.m. in London, after earlier increasing to 3.21 percent. The yield climbed to 3.25 percent on Feb. 10, the most since Feb. 3. The 3.25 percent security due January 2020 rose 0.01 today, or 10 euro cents per 1,000-euro ($1,360) face amount, to 100.50.
Gains for the Greek two-year note pushed the yield 4 basis points lower to 5.08 percent. The 10-year yield was little changed at 6.15 percent.

Yea - I linked to this article earlier.
I am most curious about the tactical steps banks will taking. They simply have to know that the Fed will have to restart its program. Sell a mortgage today knowing you will not carry it to maturity, but rather about 6 months until the Fed opens its wallet and then you can cash in on the refis as the rates chasee back down? So price basis is not to charge too much as to lose the loan, but enough that the refi will happen? Hmm, that has just got to mean 100 bp as an immediate hard correction. If the fed is reluctant it will go up another 100 over time.
Man, I hate when the primary business/pricing consideration is what the government will do to make the market.

greenchutes wrote:

Exactly. How about predictions on the Libor the week after purple flying monkeys come out of my rectum?

I'll take the over. I've never seen a monkey-rectal-Libor spread that I could refuse.

noob goldberg wrote:

I've never seen a monkey-rectal-Libor spread that I could refuse.

Isn't there an ETF for that? MRL or something?

12th Percentile wrote:

I like people with a proven track record.

Of course, there could be another explanation:
http://cartoonist.name/wp-content/uploads/2008/11/bizzaro-1.jpg

sm_landlord wrote:

Isn't there an ETF for that? MRL or something?

There are so many I'm in an MRL fund of funds, if you can believe it.

bearly wrote:

I agree w/ Pimpco's boss about the program restarting

Do you think China has a model for that?

bearly wrote:

I agree w/ Pimpco's boss about the program restarting. 100bps in 2mos & they're back with the paddle.

I say flat to +10 bps for the first few weeks, as everyone assumes that the fed will have to step in. Once it becomes apparent that the Fed isn't propping, mass panic and +200 for a week or two before the Fed re-institutes the program.

bklyn_rntr wrote:

maybe it'll be when Obama says no to restarting the mortgage repo's when everyone's bleating for it in late 2010

As if he had any say in the matter.

OK, CR, so what do you see inflation doing over the next 2+ years? Picking up, soaring, going down? Negative (deflation)?

bklyn_rntr wrote:

Hmm....the day of the big No is coming.....maybe it'll be when Obama says no to restarting the mortgage repo's when everyone's bleating for it in late 2010, or maybe it'll be germany that says No to greek/Spanish/Portuguese bailout...a No is coming though and that's when the mud hits the fan!!

I have a 30-month-old, and this market is very similar to my interactions with my child these days. Peace, fun, tranquillity while he's getting his way, and then absolute bedlam the moment I say 'no'.

The demand for money is currently very low, and the purchases the Fed is currently making are very little.

I cannot see any reason to predict an immediate significant impact on rates.

However, it follows that either underwriting standards will tighten further or that the Fed will have to get back into the market. Higher rates are a compensation for risk, and the real current effect of Fed purchases may have been to increase risk tolerance rather than decrease rates. The wild card this year are the underwriting terms of government-backed mortgages rather than rates. FHA has already said it will tighten. If Fannie does, or if Congressional talk about terminating Fannie does, then the only real demand for Fannie mortgages on the open market will be for insured mortgages. In other words, the final payment to the borrower may not raise much in terms of rates, but the insurance cost to the borrower may increase.

As the Fed has contracted purchases recently, real rates have declined due to the decline in mortgage originations.

With PIMCO, the biggest bond fund and a buyer in MBS, expecting the Fed to jump back in they probably have a target at which they pick 'em up and then sell back to the Fed when they enter.

PROFIT!... from the hapless taxpayer.

Without knowing what the Fed bought, it's hard to say what rates will do. If the Fed only bought the crappiest crap (my guess), then I think CR's closest to being correct. If the Fed bought crap plus some good stuff to make the purchases not look so bad, then it could be around 75 bps.

Calitics:: The Return of ArnoldBux?

1. Geithner on Christmas Eve promissed unlimited support to Fannie and Freddie. So, instead of the Fed buying the MBS's, the UST will buy them. Then they will turn around and issue Treasuires which will be bought by the Fed, which will complete the monetization process. The end result is no change in interest rates as the shell game continues.
2. Given JPM's huge exposure on interest rate swaps one can be sure they and the PPT will be striving to prevent/limit any increase on the long bond. Any spike in rates will cause JPM to implode.

Doc Holiday wrote:

. We have been living with a corrupted system that caused a systemic crash

Cause-n-effect.

Credit cycle creates corruption, not vice versa.

Fixing corruption won't fix the cycle.

"Jesus was a communist, and early christians were communist radicals.*

Not exactly. We're told in Acts that all property was shared in the early community, but Christianity is not directly about economics, nor is it an economic theory. The sharing of goods is a sign of an effective faith in Christ. So is all social justice. Faith in Christ comes first. If your faith is sufficient you will share, because that's the way faithful people behave. The contradiction concerning faith and works between St. Paul and St. James is not a real contradiction.

Wait I thought we already had a party of NO, and nothing has changed?

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/us-budget-projected-interest-rate-sensitivity-analysis 

"the light-green shaded area, or the Interest paid on Treasury Securities, has been a minor portion of total UST outlays. The reason for this is the record low interest rate on Treasury Bills"

As I wrote on the Usenet hierarchy over ten years ago, the US Treasury has been converted into a gigantic S&L, borrowed short at almost 0% rates but loaned long in entitlements. Thing goes ka-boom at some point. Feds might be able to make it twirl around for a few more years.

noob goldberg wrote:

Didn't they also do some fancy accounting that shifted a bunch of liabilities from last year to this year, which also has to be taken account for? I'm trying to remember exactly what it was.

They do it every year. It's close to $5b now and that's not counting the Federal loan for UE disbursements.

broward - Thing goes ka-boom at some point. Feds might be able to make it twirl around for a few more years.

And is that when they nationalize the 401K's etc as a stop gap?

Rob, Can you say why no-one would dare short WFC or BofA again? I didn't get it. Is it because the market will fear that the bank support will continue indefinitely? and therefore no signal for a collapse?

RossInvestor wrote:

Then they will turn around and issue Treasuires which will be bought by the Fed

That's actually a pretty good prediction, given the almost certain downstream effects. The Treasury purchase program is over, but that doesn't guarantee they don't start up again. Who knows, With the Euro problems maybe there will be enough appetitie without even having to step in at all.

sm_landlord wrote:

Currency controls first.

That's certain some day, but how about a currency exchange, too?

One day all the banks are closed to business except bring in your greenbacks and receive the new bluebacks.

bklyn_rntr wrote:

Rob, Can you say why no-one would dare short WFC or BofA again? I didn't get it. Is it because the market will fear that the bank support will continue indefinitely? and therefore no signal for a collapse?

Yes. And because there won't be shorting there won't be advance signals that ending MBS purchases will cause disruptions. It will be a "surprise."

Mortgage rates won't jump as much because the drop in volume of product will create a supply imbalance but people risking their own money are still going to demand a premium that FedGov does not.

sportsfan wrote:

That's certain some day, but how about a currency exchange, too?

My guess is that happens after the seized 401K bux turn out to be inadequate to solve the problem. So this would be the order:
1. Currency controls
2. 401K "conversions"
3. Dollar "conversions"

Maury the Credit Responsibility Panda wrote:

A sort of modern assignat, except backed by the MBSs on the Fed's balance sheet.

Backing you can believe in.

sm_landlord wrote:

So this would be the order:
1. Currency controls
2. 401K "conversions"
3. Dollar "conversions"

In Argentina, it went 1, 3, 2. 2 came much later.

My general recollection is:

The guys who panicked early and got their money into $USD offshore were the only ones who managed to preserve anything.

This cascaded into sort of a national bank run. Then the government limited withdrawals to some tiny amount per day. The Argentinians rioted and burned shit down.

Then the government did the Bernanke Bucks idea – a nonconvertible domestic assignat, backed by land so it could control the devaluation that had to happen.

I didn’t follow the story after the Argentinian government seized the public pension funds a couple of years back. I don't think there was really any escape for anyone except those who panicked very early.

Kauai_Kahuna wrote:

And is that when they nationalize the 401K's etc as a stop gap?

Yes.

It's also likely that they'll freeze redemptions of T-Bills and set a fixed rate of something absurd, like 0.1%.

The poor will not be alone in their suffering.

Holy crap, that Calitics website is a riot. No wonder Kalifornia is in the krapper, thanks to lunatics like that.

Speaking of mortgages - Saturday morning I received an odd, unsolicited call from a WFC mortgage rep, inquiring if I was interested in exploring refinancing my mortgage via the HARP program - no fee/no charges.
"Isn't that for people in trouble?" I asked. "Well, yes and no" he replied.

I have no idea why my mortgage popped up on his screen. HARP is supposed to enable qualified underwater borrowers to refi a Freddie Mac or Fannie Mae held loan at up to 125% LTV. My mortgage balance is approximately 3% LTV and will be paid off before the end of the year at the rate I'm paying it down now.

So I now know that either Freddie or Fannie holds my loan, which was a 15 year refi at 5.875% in late 2002 (it wasn't worth the fee to get a lower rate last year.) And he did answer my question about what paperwork to expect when the loan is paid off in a few months.

Still puzzled why I was called. I know Wells et al get paid for HAMP modifications - I couldn't find out what the reward is for a HARP refi. He did close by asking if I was interested in speaking with a Wells personal financial adviser - I guess if you can't sell one product you try another.

mp wrote:

The clock has advanced 1.0 minutes since 2/10/2010

Conjure doesn't like the bubble in China, I take it.

pavel.chichikov wrote:

Jesus was a communist

Oh no! Is that a mixed-metaphor?

RainyDay wrote:

I guess if you can't sell one product you try another.

Wells Fargo is all about cross-selling. I don't think a mortgage refi or HARP had anything to do with the call.

mp wrote:

The time is now:
11:48:06.0

I don't see how China blowing up internally is a big deal. Sure as heck would solve our CAD and their excess of US denominated reserves in just a few humanitarian relief shipments.

Rob Dawg wrote:

I don't see how China blowing up internally is a big deal. Sure as heck would solve our CAD and their excess of US denominated reserves in just a few humanitarian relief shipments.

What was the suggestion last week? China today is like the USA in the 20's or Japan in the 80's (account surpluses, etc)? I'd imagine it'd roil the markets something fierce if that bubble pricked.

EDIT: As I re-read this and tapped my snark-o-meter, I realized there is a 81% chance that your snark went over my head.

Kauai_Kahuna wrote:

I just don't think big enough I guess.

OT: Some people don't think at all, Clinton Hyatt for example:

February 15, 2010 9:59 AM
FORT IRWIN • A Barstow man was arrested for trying to bring an assault rifle onto Fort Irwin, officials reported.

Clinton Hyatt, a 27-yearold contractor, was arrested at the main gate Thursday by officers from the Fort Irwin Police Department after security guards saw an AK-47 in the back seat of Hyatt’s vehicle, according to Sgt. Gregory Wilkie.

The discovered weapon had been modified to make it more dangerous, according to Wilkie.

“It actually puts it into military standards,” he said, noting that the assault rifle had been altered to be fully automatic and included a pistol grip.

According to fort spokesman John Wagstaffe, about five police cars surrounded the black pick-up truck at the main gate.

Among the charges was carrying a loaded firearm. If there is one thing dumber that trying to drive onto a military installation with a rifle on the back seat, it would be doing that with a loaded fully automatic assault rifle on the back seat.

noob goldberg wrote:

What was the suggestion last week? China today is like the USA in the 20's or Japan in the 80's (account surpluses, etc)? I'd imagine it'd roil the markets something fierce if that bubble pricked.

Yup. And? The markets are not the economy. In fact a lot of our current problems have their roots in forgetting that.

Edit: the snark comes in once people figure out that our only choices left are "how" not "if."

As CR has pointed out, new home sales won't rise until there is household formation happening.

As such, there's plenty of empty and used homes, so rates are likely only a small lever on exiting or continuing the recession.

Rob Dawg wrote:

The markets are not the economy.

Sadly, much of the economy (e.g. "Services") isn't the economy so you can't blame people for trying to move to more "fertile land" such as FIRE, Law...

I still think there's time for us to be saved from a total economic collapse--and I think lawyers and judges are going to be the heroes this time.

Listen up lawyers--we need you!

I became truly interested in the subject of our current economic crisis the night my husband (a lawyer by training) and I were seated next to a young, former Merrill Lynch trader soon after the market crashed in 2008. My husband began asking him about derivitives, securitization, MBSs, CDOs, CDSs, (and, God forbid synthetic CDSs!) As the night unfolded my husband kept shaking his head in disbelief and saying "but you can't do that." And the Merrill trader kept saying, "But we did."

If there are any CR lawyers out there--please grab yourself a trader and ask him to sit down and explain to you the entire process of what happened to a securitized mortgage note from the minute it was signed at closing until the home is auctioned off at the court house steps. (And don't forget to ask about the "off-shore bankruptcy remote special purpose vehicles" and pass through accounts! )

Lawyers--not politicians or economists--are going to endow us with the swiftest way of sucking back all of that wealth that supposedly vaporized over the past 10 years. Come on lawyers, just think of the headlines, "Lawyers Save World."

Pearl wrote:

Lawyers--not politicians or economists--are going to endow us with the swiftest way of sucking back all of that wealth that supposedly vaporized over the past 10 years. Come on lawyers, just think of the headlines, "Lawyers Save World."

Heh. Where is patientrenter?

Pearl wrote:

Lawyers--not politicians or economists--are going to endow us with the swiftest way of sucking back all of that wealth that supposedly vaporized over the past 10 years.

There's nothing to suck back - it's gone. I'm afraid that your plan would simply result in widespread depression among the legal community. Good thing they can afford to buy their own Prozac prescriptions.

Where is Barney when you need him.

sm_landlord wrote:

There's nothing to suck back - it's gone

The money may be gone--but the real estate isn't!

Come on lawyers, just think of the headlines, "Lawyers Save World."

Can you shake the Empire State Building by kicking a stone at street level? Just asking.

Buckaroo Banzai wrote:

It is funny when mainstream journalists write about guns, because they usually betray their complete lack of knowledge of the subject matter.

I'll agree that journalists rarely know much about guns or many other subjects. I just thought the story was hilarious.

Add-on: Even if it was legally purchased, it isn't legal to drive around with it loaded (in California).

BTW, California called for surrender of all assault rifles a long time ago so they are generally illegal to possess.

LMAO, I have had 5 security car's blocking in my car because my backseat passenger did not have his seat belt on.
That qualifies as a

every AK-47 ever made comes with a pistol grip

All fifty million of them? Somehow I doubt it. But that the media doesn't know jack about firearms, that I'll agree on.

noob goldberg wrote:

This is the precise reason I advocated that Paulson and Bernanke should have only given out 50% (or less!) of the AIG CDS and forced the banks to fight a legal battle for the rest.

How about we--the people--force the banks to fight a legal battle for the rest?

Pearl wrote:

How about we--the people--force the banks to fight a legal battle for the rest?

Just look to the 3rd world for your solution(s): Kidnapping, Hostage taking works (if at all). Lawsuits don't.

but I gotta say that it's a little disturbing one can legally purchase a fully automatic assault rifle.

Those woodchucks can be terribly aggressive during woodchuck rutting season. Only an assault rifle on automatic can stop them when they charge.

sm_landlord wrote:

something that you happen to know a lot about,

yeah 50% is the best they can do but I pontificate on things here I only know 10% about

noob goldberg wrote:

I know nothing about guns, but I gotta say that it's a little disturbing one can legally purchase a fully automatic assault rifle.

He modified it to make it fully automatic in this case, but IIRC collectors can buy some fully automatic weapons (cue Roland the Headless Thompson Gunner)

---CONJURE'S WORD OF THE DAY---

Sturmgewehr, translation "assault rifle"

Etymology: Traced to Adolf Hitler, at a 1943 meeting with his generals in Russia.

Sturmgewehr

yagij wrote:

One class action to rule them all? Having had family participate in 'em on the lawyer side--as opposed to the client side--all we commoners would get is a 5-20 USD off coupon off if that much.

How about owning your home free and clear because all underlying securitized mortgages are deemed invalid?

Pearl wrote:

Come on lawyers, just think of the headlines, "Lawyers Save World."

Do you think Banksters hire cheap lawyers when they pa-laid their schemes

energyecon wrote:

IIRC collectors can buy some fully automatic weapons

I'm not sure about that, mostly because the federal government really hasn't done much gun legislation in the last 40 years. They seem to be letting the states work it out and, naturally, results will differ.

I believe a dealer with a federal firearms license can buy a fully automatic weapon, but I think it may have to be disabled to be sold to a collector, at least in my state:

Bureau of Firearms - California Dept. of Justice - Office of the Attorney General

I guess I mean other than the wild reservoir, raccoons, foxes, bats.

Pearl wrote:

Think bigger--not lots of lawsuits--just one. That's all it would take

Careful, it is not lost on many that it is also criminal to file a bogus mortgage application. Lot's of folks did so on the theory that prices always go up. Prosecuting millions though, that's difficult.

Pavel, even though it was written as a sarcastic parody, you are right.
But by that same standard, we should be wiping out all the cattle herds because they come into contact with anthrax and has a possibility of infecting humans. Personally I am not a cat person.
I do enjoy reading these threads to get a better understanding of the mimes, and tracking who is being trashed this week.

"Sturmgewehr." Actually, Hitler had to be sold on the Sturmgewehr. Hitler hated giving infantry automatic weapons. They wasted ammunition. His combat experience was WWI bolt action rifles. But he had an obsession with offensive, as opposed to defensive, weapons. (The ME 262 was held up for half a year because Hitler wanted to know if it could carry bombs!) So the army positioned it as an offensive weapon: the "asault rifle." He bought into it and the grandfather of all subsequent assault rifles went into production. Spin works.

TJ and The Bear - I think the great hope is that money will still seek out what is considered safe havens, I just don't think the market will continue to see it as such as Fanny/Freddie/et al continue to blow up.

Kauai_Kahuna wrote:

TJ and The Bear - I think the great hope is that money will still seek out what is considered safe havens, I just don't think the market will continue to see it as such as Fanny/Freddie/et al continue to blow up.

What's the NPV of a 20yr 5% fixed in an 8% world? Your principal is safe.

Bwahahaha!
Senior Goldman Adviser Criticizes Greece – Without Disclosing His Goldman Affiliation
Senior Goldman Adviser Criticizes Greece – Without Disclosing His Goldman Affiliation « The Baseline Scenario

Simon Johnson is a one man Squidslayer

Rob Dawg wrote:

What's the NPV of a 20yr 5% fixed in an 8% world? Your principal is safe.

Must have missed the context but the face on a 5% would have to adjust to meet 8%, i.e. it becomes a discount bond, no? Kind sir, what did I miss?

piqued wrote:

Rob Dawg wrote:
What's the NPV of a 20yr 5% fixed in an 8% world? Your principal is safe.
Must have missed the context but the face on a 5% would have to adjust to meet 8%, i.e. it becomes a discount bond, no? Kind sir, what did I miss?

Exactly and if you are the bank that holds those notes? Or just a poor retiree that paid 104 and they now go for 83? A rise in interest rates is going to make more wealth evaporate both by impoverishing savers and sending home prices down again.

piqued wrote:

Do you think Banksters hire cheap lawyers when they pa-laid their schemes

The lawyers who helped the banks concoct these schemes assumed housing prices would always go up; there are big holes in their legal arguments. Their lawyers on board now know that they are just one good, precedent-setting lawsuit away from total collapse. And don't believe for one minute that the banks aren't terrified at the thought of this. (Notice, lately, how much nicer lenders and their foreclosure mills have become in dealing with customers who threaten to sue them.)

Come on, guys--are we just gonna roll over and wet ourselves? At the very least, the need to know that our side has leverage. And we DO have leverage, we are living in our leverage. Hey--worst case--we get to see them squirm before they kill us all--that's gotta be worth something in itself!

Comrade Kristina wrote:

When do the new credit card rules go in to effect?

February 22nd, IIRC. Perhaps it applies to offers that predate and not to acceptance dates.

Rob Dawg - You did see the "great hope" part right? I was attempting to outline what some people think/hope. I believe that hope is not a plan, and it sure as heck does not constitute a safe investment. Of course I could be wrong.

Of course the ongoing out cry about big banks, and the attack on contract laws also opens up a pandora's box of unintended consensuses. Speaking of hope, wasn't that the last 'evil' released from the box?

Pearl wrote:

They severed the chain of title upon securitizing the loans.

As long as the mortgages were properly assigned, I just don't see the problem. Perhaps it's a matter of state law.

Guess I would have to move to AL, AR, AK, AZ, CO, CT, FL, GA, ID, IN, KY, LA, ME, MD, NE, NV, NH, NM, NC, ND, OH, OK, OR, PA, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, VA, WA, WV, WI, or WY if I want to own a machine gun without becoming a dealer.

Or I could just rely on my ancient armaments and hope for the best.

sportsfan wrote:

I would have to move to AL, AR, AK, AZ, CO, CT, FL, GA, ID, IN, KY, LA, ME, MD, NE, NV, NH, NM, NC, ND, OH, OK, OR, PA, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, VA, WA, WV, WI, or WY

Blue State == No Machine Gun (where there is probably a large number of such weapons...)
Red State == Machine Gun (where there is probably fewer weapons than in the Blue State...)

Yagji,

There are some federal courts in south texas that are pretty independent of the squid, and they definitely don't like New York lawyers down here. I think if you can forum shop, you might have a decent chance. I know the law. I also know that it's better to know the judge, particularly when that judge has been appointed for life.

Hackman wrote:

I also know that it's better to know the judge, particularly when that judge has been appointed for life.

Again: Court of Appeals. Stalling tactics. Motions. Discovery. Judiciary changes.
.
All of these things play to , not J6P. Exxon Valdez showed what happens when a powerhouse is on the receiving end of a "slamdunk" case for the plaintiffs. Maybe I just have less faith in my area of work than others. Again, who is gonna pay for all the fees upfront or would the plaintiffs expect the lawyer to carry the debt for years on end in a horrible economy?

sportsfan wrote:

As long as the mortgages were properly assigned, I just don't see the problem.

And they weren't properly assigned. Multiply this one little "sloppy" assignment by a few million:

Foreclosure Fraud- Video Examples of False Affidavits Filed in Courts Across The Country | Matt Weidner Blog

The banks didn't play by the rules. This might not have mattered if they hadn't gone and made the whole world mad at them. But we're mad now--and it's probably gonna matter.

Sure, they'll stop the overt buying but the surrepticious printing has not and will not stop ever. Anyone who thinks "they" are going to let the market set rates is delusional.

crazyv wrote:

I don't know the answer to this question- but is the Fed currently buying every MBS being created i.e. besides the Fed there are absolutely no other buyers of MBS?

Hamilton wrote: The Fed's Flow of Funds Table L.125 lists $5.3 trillion in agency- and GSE-backed mortgage pools outstanding for 2009:Q3, of which the $977 B currently held by the Fed would represent 18% of the total.
Econbrowser: Bernanke on the Fed's balance sheet

FRB: H.4.1 Release--Factors Affecting Reserve Balances--December 3, 2009 

Of course, securities class action suits aren't gonna help J6P much, and they are costly. But it is pretty clear that lots of investors were sold on material misrepresentations. The J6P cases that invalidate mortgages or delay foreclosures, well, those risks were likely never disclosed to the MBS purchasers.

Hmmmm, I'm beginning to wonder about my original mortgage. It was supposedly "lost" en route to the lender. I had to go back in and sign a new set of documents a couple days later. I wonder how many times this happened to others? Are there two sets of "originals" out there somewhere? Are there any originals out there? How many times did they sell my mortgage and did they use both originals to sell to different investors? I really think Pearl is on the right track here.

For underemployed, hungry and less-than-brilliant lawyers (of which there are roughly a million in this country), MERS is the jobs program that will give and give until real reform is enacted. So, effectively, for the rest of their natural lives in most cases.

. ,

nikola tesla wrote:

If the original has disappeared amid all the slicing and dicing og the mortgages, it cannot be enforced in most states, technically speaking. No original note, no enforceable debt.

And they like to pretend that the notes "got lost" in the frantic rush to make money hand over fist. But I don't buy that. These notes are held in blank--they are negotiable instruments. They are not shoved in some clerk's filing cabinet--they are bearer bonds, and they must, by law, be held in fire-rated vaults. (A very nice lady at the New York Fed told me that.

Conjure says, "The United States is the most powerful nation on this planet and it can't afford diapers for its elderly Medicaid patients?"

"BWAHAHAHAHA!"

NEVADA'S BUDGET WOES: Dentures, diapers for elderly out under proposed reductions, officials say - Breaking News - ReviewJournal.com

"Fools."

I for one am looking forward to the day when mortgages once again become difficult to get. The cries will once again get loud from the left side of the room claiming racial/ethnic/economic... discrimination. I say shutdown FRE/FNM & let the lefties form a cooperative lender of last resort funded by George Soros and Warren Buffet.

I'll keep with my old prediction, that I've shared countless times.

the Fed doesn't stop its purchases.
or if it does we see rapid increase in rates and they restart the purchasing rather quickly.

in the end, we've been told countless times that as goes the housing market so goes the economy.
thus, the govt/Fed are trying to defend housing, keeping artificially high asset valuations
we have a new paradigm where 5.5% mortgages are considered "expensive" and 6% are outrageous.

never gonna be allowed to happen, at least not yet.
especially not when we have a Treasury bubble allowing us to fund all our debts so cheaply (in the short term).

they won't stop purchasing things until the credit card is ripped from their cold hard fingers.

mp wrote:

Conjure says, "The United States is the most powerful nation on this planet and it can't afford diapers for its elderly Medicaid patients?"

Can we just skip to the last page and admit that capitalism is crap? The U.S. is on a long, slow, inevitable decline that leads to a series of financial bubbles and crashes, but not to the point that the old and infirm have to lie in their own filth.

Comrade Kristina wrote:

GRRRRR my brain is telling me to just take the deal and let the sleeping dog lie...

You have only been making one mortgage payment each month?

If the bank sold your mortgage twice, wouldn't one of the buyers notice that they aren't getting any payment?

Take the mod and run. Let God sort out the paperwork because the banks won't be able to.

Comrade Kristina wrote:

Did you see the new emoticon mp?

I did and Conjure thinks it's "fabulous."

His word, not mine.

Did you see the new emoticon mp

at the risk of being the odd man out, I'm starting to have trouble understanding what half the emoticons mean anymore.

sigh. I guess this is what happens when you don't read the comments enough.

what does "got concrete" mean? (or cement mixer)

I think we need an emoticon to English dictionary for those of us who are falling behind.

Yearning to Learn wrote:

they won't stop purchasing things until the credit card is ripped from their cold hard fingers.

What other choice do they have?
The ponzi game is over of they stop.

Yearning to Learn wrote:

I'll keep with my old prediction, that I've shared countless times.

the Fed doesn't stop its purchases.
or if it does we see rapid increase in rates and they restart the purchasing rather quickly.

I'll second that. No one can accept how much spreads have to increase to absorb the unprecedented and near-subprime delinquency rates in prime mortgages. The GSE's were not intended for this level of default.

Comrade Kristina wrote:

So you believe they should be able to discriminate on racial and ethnic grounds

No, I don't. I believe in the ability of a lender to deny on economic grounds. Just that those denied will resort to all sorts of other claims, and Frank/Dodd have too short of a memory and too long of a list of prospective voters to ignore.

7 1/2 %. A perfectly reasonable interest rate which rewards
savers.

"admit that capitalism is crap?"

Say what you want about Rand, but she certainly got it right on the "Unkown" part, even if it isn't much of an "Ideal".

Personally, the parts of the economy that actually bear a passing resemblance to capitalism - technology, and, er... well, really just technology... seem to be the only parts of it capable of creating innovation and jobs. Or maybe it's just me, and Detroit's experiment with unions and things like Medicare in the bigger states are doing great.

what does "got concrete" mean?

more fear mongering

Final thought on FEAR MONGERING.

When it reaches the point where a nation can not change an elderly nursing home patient's dirty diaper...

IT SHOULD SCARE THE SHIT OUT OF YOU.

Thank you.

thanks for the definition mp.

12%: thanks for making me feel like I'm not the only ignoramus around here!

@bearly:
I also eagerly anticipate the return to sane lending standards. However, I disagree with you that it will be only the lefties that will scream and cry.
I would argue that a larger percentage of middle class/upper middle class white suburbia benefitted from the crazy lending in the 2000's compared to the minorities, etc.

it's nice to turn things around and pretend that the entire problem was due to some misguided govt intervention to give blacks homes... the reality is that it was a misguided effort of the US govt/Fed/private industry to blow another bubble to get us out of the dot com crash.

I assure you that more than lefties/minorities will squawk when we get to "sane" lending again. because then soccer moms will have a harder time pulling out HELOC money to buy their SUVs and trips to Cancun.

Comrade Kristina wrote:

I can guarantee you there are old/sick people lying in their own filth in "reputable" hospitals right now, all over this country. Throw nursing homes into the equation and I can safely say millions of them are out there.

Touche. Don't forget bed sores and beatings.

speaking of fearmongering - if a hacker takes down the power grid, what will you do?

What if there is no power for a few days. No internet, radio, TV. Imagine the rumors and fear that would take hold.

Apparently it isn't that hard for hackers to do.

When those lights go off, it doesn't take long for people to jump to conclusions.

How could I? I spent a year healing four stage four decubitus wounds on my Mom that almost killer her. Our health care system is in shambles...

he crazy lending really really didn't benefit anybody.

other than all of those people who made all of that money off of it.

mp wrote:

IT SHOULD SCARE THE SHIT OUT OF YOU.

Same with Wal Mart's dead peasant insurance, or in fact any of the things in Michael Moore's latest film, which could have been titled We Are All Flint Now.

lawyerliz wrote:

The crazy lending really really didn't benefit anybody.

Tangelo disagrees.

12th Percentile - if a hacker takes down the power grid, what will you do?

You mean you don't have a portable generator? Man I have to keep the beer cold in the keggerator.
Now granted if there is no gas after 2 weeks, I may have to unplug the Fridge, to get a few more weeks out of the keggerator, but thats when the hard choices have to be made.
BTW, with no power, water is limited and of questionable quality, beer just makes good sense. It does take some getting used to using it to brush your teeth though.

Pearl wrote:

Lawyers--not politicians or economists--are going to endow us with the swiftest way of sucking back all of that wealth that supposedly vaporized over the past 10 years.

You know they have lawyers, too, right?

What if there is no power for a few days. No internet, radio, TV. Imagine the rumors and fear that would take hold.

Apparently it isn't that hard for hackers to do.

then why hasn't it happened?

She wasn't at a military hospital though. She was in one of the top 50 in the country or so they claim. Which is even scarier yet. I can't really get into detail, I have a gag order on me though....

12th Percentile wrote:

speaking of fearmongering - if a hacker takes down the power grid, what will you do?

Sell fridge space and ice to my neighbors.

Thanks for reminding me. Almost time to rotate out the empty propane spare tanks and swap the generator fuel. Truthfully, these are routine precautions for those of us in earthquake territory.

My mom has had good care, so
far. For whatever it's worth. You can't assume you will
get good care anywhere. You need someone who
isn't sick in there batting for you.

Aaaaaargh. I don't wanna be in the same paragraph with Limbaugh.

Exactly liz. I had no idea what I was dealing with. Thankfully I hit the ground running pretty well and took over her care when I got moved down here. I fired several doctors and raised holy hell with the nursing staff. They'd hide when I got off the elevator. I was living in St. Louis when Mom stroked. I came down for two weeks to assess the situation and realized my life as I knew it was over and that we had to go back to St. Louis, quit our jobs and move down here immediately. That's when this roller coaster ride started. I can only hope I'm finally back on the platform now....

Yes. Very minimal as the law here is no suit can be for more than 100K and in the event the person has died and has no spouse or minor children it gets even crazier. You have to be able to prove they caused you monetary loss. Tort reform is really helpful here in Florida..

Yearning to Learn (4:30):

You are absolutely correct. I've been making a good living for 25 years representing bankrupt homeowners and have never had a minority client. Over half are middle class families moving down the income ladder as a result of the four "D's" ---- death, disability, divorce and debt --- and the other half are small business owners using personal credit cards in lieu of commercial loans. And you'll love that the highest bankruptcy rate in the country (by state) is --- drum roll --- Utah!

"The market is a forward looking disounting mechanism. Mortgage rates ..."

Do you honestly think mortgage rates at this point bear any relation to 'the market'?

Comrade Kristina wrote:

Tort reform is really helpful here in Florida.

Tort reform just means that now they can do a CBA to determine precisely which ways they can destroy your life for profit.

but I'd rather be informed of what's coming down the road.

I don't mind being informed, but to suggest that Mad Max is our future is totally unnecessary.

Mr Slippery wrote:

You know they have lawyers, too, right?

The may have sucked up all of the money--but they didn't suck up all of the good lawyers. I promise.

Not 410s, I hunted small game as a kid. They were 12 guage.

Comrade Kristina wrote:

That's when this roller coaster ride started. I can only hope I'm finally back on the platform now....

So that explains a bunch... ouch. sorry to hear, err.. read

mp wrote:

When it reaches the point where a nation can not change an elderly nursing home patient's dirty diaper...
IT SHOULD SCARE THE SHIT OUT OF YOU.

It may be worse now, but this nation has always been multi-tiered. For some there won't be diapers, and others will "earn" $100 million bonuses. Nothing scary there. Just a cruel fact of life in the US of A.

barfly - but to suggest that Mad Max is our future is totally unnecessary.

Your trust in humanity is so endearing. But trust is a two edged sword. Don't fall on yours.

It's not so much the rates that will have an effect. It's the tightening of underwriting standards over the next year or two that will matter.

barfly, Mad Max is a very real possibility whether some wish to believe it or not. World Wars have been started for less than some of the chicanery that has happened in the past few years.

barfly wrote:

I don't mind being informed, but to suggest that Mad Max is our future is totally unnecessary.

My father used to say that life is like flying an airplane. 99.9% boredom interrupted by .1% terror.

The terror, you see, is in the details. Airplanes don't like to fly because of something called GRAVITY. It's always there.

And there are all sorts of little demons (details) crawling around inside and outside your airplane that are just waiting for you to screw up.

When you screw up, they rip your ass off but, by themselves, they're just pesky little details.

Not worth bothering with.

The clock is a recognition of the details that kill.

lawyerliz wrote:

I reread part of that Tanta post, and agree that what I see is
incredible sloppiness

But to Pearls point, can lawyers class action this mess? Or do they fight back by taking all the greedy debtholders who lied on mortgage apps to court? works both ways, no?

Lobbyist Ben Dover wrote:

One of this summers projects is to turn my pick up into a 110V generator.

Just pick up an inverter for the cigarette lighter...just watch what you plug into it!

barfly wrote:

I don't mind being informed, but to suggest that Mad Max is our future is totally unnecessary.

MAX is CONTAINED, CONTAINED I say!

nova wrote:

Are you familiar with the Haas mini mill? They seem to be revolutionary and the price is amazing.

Yes, but why should I buy something like that when there are hundreds of excellent Series I and II Bridgeports out there--heavy duty American iron--for less than $2,000?

I just don't see it.

Rob Dawg wrote:

This will crush the refi business.

The group of people eligible for refis has been shrinking for months. Most of those not in distress have already done it.

What I thought was interesting was the HAAS can create a part without the need of a skilled operator. It can download the specs from an Internet connection. Eliminate the operator and the cost makes sense

Well, you could most likely hook up two more generators off of the belt and increase the power generation if you can mount them. Store the extra tank and batteries on the bed and make certain they are water tight.
Personally I would be looking for some second hand generators from old construction sites. More efficient, the real problem will be to stay in supply of fuel.
Our Island had a major power outage for a couple of days due to a small earthquake, lot's of people realized how fragile our current social order is.

Lobbyist Ben Dover wrote:

Looking at doing a 2K set up for more power Hopefully get to go racing with my kid some day

hope you get there - the inverter is a nice jump bag addition - can run a kids nebulizer off of one...looking at adding a natural gas standby to whatever house we end up buying here in the next couple of months...

Had the construction generators. Fast way to lose friends in the pits with those. If we get to play the game the advantage is to tow back to the pits with air fans and battery charges working. Besides if it is easy it isn't worth doing.

Of course a machine like the Haas wipes out yet another skilled job. It also can be located anywhere.

Kauai_Kahuna wrote:

A prepared mind is required, plans come and go.

Well, hell, yes! That where prepared minds come from.

Plans. Map exercises, "War" games.

What if, how much would it take, how many?

some investor guy wrote:

Rob Dawg wrote:
This will crush the refi business.
The group of people eligible for refis has been shrinking for months. Most of those not in distress have already done it.

Yes but I was thinking about all the marginal adjustable mortgages and those approaching recasts who in a higher rate environment will never meet LTV with the implied lower values that come with higher rates. Whatever rate they are converting now will be less even 75bps higher.

Rob Dawg wrote:

will never meet LTV with the implied lower values that come with higher rates.

The other elephant in the room. How fast do valuations drop as rates rise?

My father used to say that life is like flying an airplane. 99.9% boredom interrupted by .1% terror.

You mean it's not the other way around? I must be doing something wrong then.

More Greece! I love Greece talk.