I want that Mortgage Pig on a t-shirt.

But who will bail out the Earth?

Martian squidhunters?

Correction - IZ IN UR CNTRY, EATN UR SHOOTZ

Eric wrote:

I want that Mortgage Pig on a t-shirt.

Zazzle | Custom T-Shirts, Personalized Gifts, Posters, Art, and more 

What about cross-guarantees between mutually insolvent parties? Diversification is the foundation of modern portfolio theory, so the more exposure you have to insolvent parties the better, right?

CaptainMorgan wrote:

Maybe Dubai can sell all of the expats cars at auction and minimize the losses.

Just so long as they aren't Priuses.

MrBeach wrote:

We start an IMF check-kiting ring. Where every 24 hours, we shuffle checks with a face-value of $100 Trillion dollars to our neighboring country on the left.

That is the funniest thing I've read all day.

Granted, it's been a slow day, but still. Kudos.

Is Estonia in trouble? It could have been "It's Pig'ed"....

@RockyR,

Response to your question on TA on previous thread.

MrBeach wrote:

we shuffle checks... to our neighboring country on the left.

If you did it fast enough, it could work.

Multi-tasking.

The Eternal Bailout of a Sunshine Mine

Really, what needs to be done?

Nothing, just accept the Euro may no longer function, or Germany needs to warm up a Procounsel to dictate the new economic order.

Serioiusly, folks, all that matters is everyone is going to be bailed out with mucho more printed dinero.

Obviously, we should consider the Keynesian/Cheney doctrine that in a depression, deficits don't matter.

After all, there is simply not enough AAA good debt in the world, only trash.

So, now that we are all subprime, is everybody happy?

After all, you might as well borrowed to the max, took some flyers, and gone broke right after the Champaigne was drunk.

What is the point of saving and investing, when saving has no return, business is sad and decrepit, and the only boom remaining is being run by Communist China?

Am I the only one who has the feeling the world is still going mad- just in a slightly different way than last year?

Time for a nap, sanity must be found somewhere!

Someday this war's gonna end....

EvilHenryPaulson wrote:

USD down | Oil Up | Gold Up | SP500 Up |

Noob's Account: Down.

But by much less than I anticipated, given both the current +150 and the +230 that printed earlier in the day. EEV took the brunt of it, but that ETF always makes my account look really good or really bad. There's not much middle ground there.

" So, either Greece gets a real bail-out and no other Euro nation has any reason to balance its budget...

...or Greece does not get a real bail-out and they default."

It's a dilemma, but it's not likely that Greece will be allowed to default. There would be spreading consequences. However, from what I read, there will be costs in financial and social independence for Greece.

broward wrote:

Multi-tasking.

While your computers crashing, mine's multi-tasking
It does all my work without me even asking

YouTube - "Weird Al" Yankovic - It's All About The Pentiums

I get it! Make the container bigger and call it contained.

Spread the risk from unproductive countries that took on a lot more debt than they can ever hope to pay back even under the most sunny projections, to marginally productive ones so the whole thing goes POOF at once.

Am I the only one who has the feeling the world is still going mad- just in a slightly different way than last year?

No.

Germany needs to warm up a Procounsel to dictate the new economic order.

Schauble says...

bearly wrote:

Spread the risk from unproductive countries that took on a lot more debt than they can ever hope to pay back even under the most sunny projections, to marginally productive ones so the whole thing goes POOF at once.

Why not? It did wonders for the banking sector.

Grecian Formula G8 now with California avocado and CR bacon wrap.

The Technical Take: Rydex Market Timers: Becoming More Bearish

Some Elton John:

When are you gonna come down
When are you going to land
I should have stayed on the farm
I should have listened to my old man
You know you can't hold me forever
I didn't sign up with you
I'm not a present for your friends to open
This boy's too young to be singing the blues
chorus
So goodbye yellow brick road
Where the dogs of society howl
You can't plant me in your penthouse
I'm going back to my plough

Back to the howling old owl in the woods
Hunting the horny back toad
Oh I've finally decided my future lies
Beyond the yellow brick road
What do you think you'll do then
I bet that'll shoot down your plane
It'll take you a couple of vodka and tonics
To set you on your feet again
Maybe you'll get a replacement
There's plenty like me to be found
Mongrels who ain't got a penny
Sniffing for tidbits like you on the ground

Later everyone. Off to music class with the kids.

broward wrote:

If you did it fast enough, it could work.

A quantum check.

Citizen AllenM wrote:

Am I the only one who has the feeling the world is still going mad- just in a slightly different way than last year?

Barry started by thinking he was FDR + RWR and now thinks he's WJC + GWB. As soon as he gets to JC + HH the process will be complete.

Noob,
EEV: Citi: Investor Love For Emerging Markets Disintegrates As Redemptions Soar

Steering Out of a Smash-Up No One Wants_English_Caixin

JC + HH

Jesus Christ and Herber Hoover?

Gubbmint Cheese wrote:

That's brilliant..

I spent a few months on a Millennial chat board.

Feel free to use it for the t-shirt.

MrBeach wrote:
After check kiting fails, we'll move on to international sovereign identity theft. Today, we're all Germans.
We'll "just" build synthetic derivatives that mirror the behavior of the currency of the day... luckily (I assume) that is a hard thing to do, but that is not much of a barrier when you have more money to burn than Kroesus and pay ridiculous sums to brilliant gearheads...

pig'd
Sample sales pitch to 'buy' stocks (and maybe cloaked as impartial analysis)...'It's safe to buy now because the bottom is in, the recovery underway, and there's lots of 'good deals' right now.'
The reality behind the sales pitch...'We desperately need your money right now because we over-produced and are stuck with excess inventory during an under-consupmtion credit/debt cycle phase, have excess debt that needs to be payed, and can't get any more loans (unless TBTF) in this environment...so we need your interest-free money to get us through this downturn & Deflation...and maybe you will lose some or all of your money...but you're our only Hope right now...unless we can get a govt. 'bailout' too!

I believe we are seeing the very reason the basket case economies of Europe flocked to join the Euro !
Germany and France will pay their bills ! Now if Germany could dictate their economic policy too

~splat

The hard close...'If you (taxpayers) don't cough up some more money...you'll lose everything (again).' This comes if the stock sales pitch and the artificial recovery fizzles and isn't working any more...

Citizen AllenM wrote:

Well, not really, during GD#1 the government ran a swingingly high deficit, and plunged right back into depression when they tried the austerity of a balanced budget.

On the other hand, in 1921 we didn't do that, and that Depression resolved itself in a matter of a year or so. Buggering the economy further in 1930-36 with Keynesian doctrine and the wondering why it worse when you stop is not proof that Keynesianism is correct; more like the opposite if anything-

merchants of fear wrote:

The hard close...'If you (taxpayers) don't cough up some more money...you'll lose everything (again).' This comes if the stock sales pitch and the artificial recovery fizzles and isn't working any more...

Perhaps it's something more sinister ? is actually a nuclear power and really is threatening mass destruction if their subjects aren't bailed further ?

I'm checking to see if GS or "Wall Street" has been added to the list of nuclear capable world powers.

~splat

splat wrote:

Now if Germany could dictate their economic policy too

Zie Vierte Reich?

Cinco-X wrote:

Buggering the economy further in 1930-36 with Keynesian doctrine

1873-1878 and 1893-1896 say you have cause and effect reversed.

Zie Vierte Reich

No quite that bad (!) More like a German economic 'protectorate', which to be honest I thought the Eurozone would actually have been by now with the German govt. with the Bundesbank effectively running economic policy in the zone.
~splat

LoserBeachBum wrote:

FYI, there are only three kinds of jobs in Greece: rioting, striking or siesta, depending on your age.

Unfortunately, some of this is just too true, but not really fair to so many Greeks. I have lived here on and off for 2/3 of the last 30 yrs. The governments have trashed two generations of their best and brightest who are excellent and bright and see no prospects here except waiting for a state job and relying on their connections or bribes to get one or setting up their own business or going into the family business.

There is virtually no sense of civic responsibility as far as I can see, but then that is pretty much self-fulfilling. Almost thirty years ago when the socialists came into power on the slogan "Αλλαγή" meaning change, everyone wanted change so long as it did not impact them negatively. Unfortunately, everyone wears many hats or has them in their family: independent business and civil servant, liberal professional and civil servant both of the former declaring virtually no income that corresponds to the reality, and the latter paying taxes on all income; renter and landlord, rent-control vs liberalisation of rents; educator vs parent, more funding for education and smaller class sizes vs free education for all and guaranteed access to university for all.

The economy still functions or dysfunctions based on cash to the extent that the govt can only guesstimate many of the numbers. The newly-proposed measures are still not law, and it is unclear to many what they entail.

I blame the EU and its predecessor, the EEC, for letting them slack off for so long. Many Greeks I know continue to blame the Ottomans for teaching them "bad habits." I fear this is going to be a very ugly and steep learning curve here.

dryfly wrote:

Good luck with that - making the Greeks [or Spanish or Italians] work to pay off their debts is like expecting cats to clean their cat litter.

I'm still waiting to hear the details, and not holding my breath. I still don't really see how it's in Germany's best interest to bail out Greece. While there's all sorts of underlying dynamics, pressure on the Euro would benefit them in the aggregate, I would think.

I know the outcomes of non-intervention are quite unpredictable--and possibly very dangerous--but the outcome of bailing out Greece is very predictable, and highly negative.

EvilHenryPaulson wrote:

Steering Out of a Smash-Up No One Wants_English_Caixin

Thanks for the link. Always good to get a different viewpoint.

noob goldberg wrote:

I still don't really see how it's in Germany's best interest to bail out Greece.

My reading was that their banks had about $40b in exposure to Greek bonds. Perhaps it's just a cold probabilistic assessment that a debt guarantee will cost less.

I mean, FDIC guaranteed hundreds of billions in debt but never had to pay out.

1921 was a shift from war production bust. We had the same thing happen right after the civil war. The opening of credit to Europe and civilian exports lifted the recession very fast, because demand was great to rebuild production (gee machine tools galore, and food too!).

When production recovered in Europe, the world was still left with the immense debts of the First World War- which culminated in Weimar for Germany, and a lot of other disasters across Europe. As demand fell in Europe for imports, things got much worse in the rest of the world. The grainbelt in the US started into decline in 1926, as did Argentina due to European self sufficiency in food- an event that the farming community was not in financial shape to recover from.

While the stock market crash in 1929 gathers all the attention, there were a lot of warning signs well before it hit that demand was falling in the country. What made the depression worse were the bank failures taking the savings of the small merchant and farmer classes, just as that capital was needed to preserve operations.

1921, in short, was a pimple, a panic, a small bump. The recovery, with subsequent debt, pushed many into overexpansion that was fatal after the mid 1920s.

Someday this war's gonna end...

In magnitude, what we have now is far greater.

I bought eds today and will buy more on rallys...

todays game was about distribution.....

oil numbers are out and no one is driving

Oil futures slip after API says stockpiles jumped - MarketWatch

splat wrote:

More like a German economic 'protectorate'

So it probably wouldn't be well received for the Greeks to throw a big national bailout party with lots of booze, hookers and fire trucks?

Citizen AllenM wrote:

The recovery, with subsequent debt, pushed many into overexpansion that was fatal after the mid 1920s.

Would the cure then be further expansion?

noob goldberg wrote:

I still don't really see how it's in Germany's best interest to bail out Greece.

It is in German politicians best interest to bail out the German banks that lent money to Greece. How they now structure the conduit is all that is left to be done.

dum luk wrote:

"“Where a Member State is in difficulties or is seriously threatened with severe difficulties caused by exceptional occurrences beyond its control..."

That seems pretty cut and dried to me.

Fact 10: Contagious debt defaults, along with bank failures, could lead to a double-dip recession in Europe, possibly affecting the US as well. If that were to happen, with the interest rate at the zero lower bound and fiscal policy not available any more, we could face a terribly bad situation. This is the most generous interpretation of why Eurozone governments will bail out Greece.

yagij,

What vital forces of young people do we have in mass quantity/ What surging markets of large demand do we have?

Ummm, old folks waiting for Social Security checks to spend at Wally world? We have 76 million folks thinking about and doing retirement in the next two decades!!! The Boomer deathgrip upon America is complete, with a boring economy of shuffling people to and from their health care providers.

Seriously, does anyone think we are on the cusp of a demographic boom? Boomers are becoming grandparents, and will be spending down their investments, their houses are now worth crap, and they are stuck in jobs that the young folks need. Welcome to demographic Japan style sniveling economies.

As a GenX economist, this was predictable, but people whose paychecks depending on growth to the moon really dislike anybody who punctures their bubbles. As for War, well we will now be leaving that to richer nations, and good luck to them.

The American Century is over, and America has exhausted itself by trying to save the world. To the rest of the World, Good Luck, and start fixing your own messes.

Someday this war's gonna end...

dryfly wrote:

it is in German politicians best interest to bail out the German banks that lent money to Greece. How they now structure the conduit is all that is left to be done.

So they should bail out the banks then, no? Might as well do it directly, unless Maury is right and the cost of the Greek guarantee is less than the cost of mopping up the resulting blood.

Rob Dawg wrote:

All this durm und strang when all along the only thing that matters is the banks. Is what is happening best for the banks? There's your answer.

WWBD? What Would Bankers Do?

'what we have now is far greater'
Population is greater...leverage is greater...sales effort is greater (and better)...

noob goldberg wrote:

So they should bail out the banks then, no?

Isn't that what they're doing? Guaranteeing the debt, and not bailing out Greece?

analyst were expecting a 2 million drop....those analysts are funny

broward wrote:
Society cycles between the individual and group, between conformity and diversity.
And unfortunately we have reached the point of overspecialization where you have to be a freak/superstar AND do so in a highly recognizable, public, way... another wonder of globalization, I guess. Good for owners of capital and for a very small pool of superstar talents... not so good for serfs.

Defective equity and investment products in some cases are being sold by the 'sales team' and supporting staff base on an artificial pump...need some more fine print in CAPS...

Cinco-X wrote:

Would the cure then be further expansion?

Only in the realitters wildest dreams.

Cruel, boring stagflation, with bouts of recession for a decade.

I guess it is better than mass soup lines. One of the funniest things I see is that people are still building houses, when houses are in surplus and will be for the rest of my life. We will have very slow population growth now the pigs is getting near to the end of the python.

In other words, count on boredom being a big factor. How much real trading is going on right now? How much real production and consumption?

Look at the folks who are liquidating right now- the early Boomers are already starting to downsize and finding no one is there to buy their houses, and they can't afford to move to Florida, or so they think. They should be buying en masse now that it is on sale.

Someday this war's gonna end...

noob goldberg wrote:

So they should bail out the banks then, no?

Its what they will do. Should or not isn't going to even be debated except as a political exercise.

Might as well do it directly, unless Maury is right and the cost of the Greek guarantee is less than the cost of mopping up the resulting blood.

The guarantee will just delay the actual cleansing - like what happened here w/ AIG. It will be much less costly for Germany to just fill the hole in their own banks. But politically - inside the EU - it won't be a palatable. So a less efficient wider pay off will occur - either that or the EU really will blow apart.

So noob - what are all your fellow Canucks saying about joining the EU now? A year ago it was all the rage up there I understand - dump NAFTA and join the EU. Hear any such conversation now? My guess is you'd get a pretty attractive entry proposal if you applied today.

ResistanceIsFeudal wrote:

Good for owners of capital and for a very small pool of superstar talents... not so good for serfs.

Yes, it's a net negative for society, which is why it will probably be rolled back.

One way or another.

cinco,
what if they dont capture the attention of enough buyers? could lead to bigger problems...

Citizen AllenM wrote:

people are still building houses, when houses are in surplus and will be for the rest of my life.

FIRE is full of sharks: Swim or die...

dryfly wrote:

So noob - what are all your fellow Canucks saying about joining the EU now? A year ago it was all the rage up there I understand - dump NAFTA and join the EU. Hear any such conversation now? My guess is you'd get a pretty attractive entry proposal if you applied today.

The Canada-EU partnership discussions? Still going strong, in that other-worldly bubble known as 'Trade Negotiation'. However, such an agreement is years off; the government hasn't even really started consulting with industry or allowing us to see draft texts yet. I'm not holding my breath.

But as far as I know it was simply a bilateral trade discussion; no currency discussions or anything.

broward wrote:
Yes, it's a net negative for society, which is why it will probably be rolled back.
Another maladaptive winner-take-all system on the verge of becoming pathological. Maybe it's trying to destroy itself?

Rob Dawg wrote:

It's still cute the way you other 49 pretend you have a choice.

They do have a choice because of the Senate rules... the choice will be do we all get a faux bail [via printing press] with Cali & NY the biggest or is it all crash now? Cali won't get any better sugar per capita than the state whose senator agrees to make it 60 ayes at cloture. The other 40 senators & their states can F themselves.

Watch them get on board early and often.

broward wrote:

Because it's all inter-twined and interdependent?

I know, I know. I agree with both you and dryfly, from a pragmatic standpoint.

I guess my other curiousity is what they'll demand in return. Sometimes a politically feasible route is to offer something at terms that are completely unacceptable to the recipient. They turn it down, at least you offered.

yagij wrote:

Are old people a net drag on the economy?

Consumption wise - no - they consume like crazy [health care & senior care]. Production wise - absolutely - they can't work as hard or as long as their youngers.

Blackhalo wrote:

I doubt retired seniors or the elderly produce much in the way of good or services.

Healthcare and pharma spending?

I seriously don't think most of the public know what's going on...since they depend on traditional media sources if they are paying close attention at all...the 10% who pay attention don't agree on everything...the anger is easily lead into partisan squabbles...this is like watching a slow moving train wreck with passengers distracted and amused by other activities and passtimes...with a few yelling 'fire' and being sequestered or ostracized...most people are too busy surviving to worry about who exactly caused what...so a media caracature will have to suffice for most observers...

{Breaking News}

The invisible hand had to be amputated today from the economy, on account of it being run over by indecision.

dum luk wrote:

Countries cannot be bankrupt

That line is garbage. Find someone who earns $20k per year with $40k in CC debt. Sure, maybe they can service provided the debt nothing goes wrong, but there is no way for them to ever escape the debt. That's bankrupt. Same principle applies to countries

check this cool visualization out... take notice of the $515.00 and $54.00 figures, solar changeover and feeding every hungry kid....we could have done this instead of that fat figure on total cost to recapitalize banks......

The Billion Dollar Gram | Information Is Beautiful

dryfly wrote:

Consumption wise - no - they consume like crazy [health care & senior care]. Production wise - absolutely - they can't work as hard or as long as their youngers.

Stagflation it is then? (Assuming someone can pay or has those things paid for them?)

Blackhalo wrote:

Imagine that someone, can print their own money...

Is default by any other name not still default?

noob goldberg wrote:

I read that earlier, but it didn't say anything beyond the fact that Germany was considering a Guarantee. Thanks for the reminder, though.

More:

It is unclear how the guarantees might be structured, but any initiative that allows countries in violation of the currency bloc's deficit rules, such as Greece and Spain, avoid the consequences of loose fiscal policies, would likely fuel concerns over the long-term viability of the common currency.

That the EU nonetheless is considering such a step suggests that policymakers view the alternative—a potential default of a euro-zone country—to be an even worse outcome and one that could have grave consequences for both the Europe and the global economy.

So not only do we not know, they don't know either. I suspect that they realize that something has to be done before the wheels come off, but no one's sure just what, or exactly what's allowable. This announcement was a confidence building exercise and not a statement of policy. Much like Bernanke speaking to attempt to quell market instability, but with a much better result for now-

mp wrote:

It's too bad we can't all be born at 35, then bust our asses for 30 or 40 years, then just disappear.

That was the way it used to be didn't it? Not many skeletons of octogenarians found when excavating ancient sites. Lots of young [that died young] some middle aged and damned few real old. Not saying that is right - just saying it is the way it always was. There is a not too subtle message in that.

Blackhalo wrote:

Find someone who earns $20k per year with $40k in CC debt. Sure, maybe they can service provided the debt nothing goes wrong, but there is no way for them to ever escape the debt.

Imagine that someone, can print their own money...

That's fine until the merchants no longer accept it-

EvilHenryPaulson wrote:

That line is garbage. Find someone who earns $20k per year with $40k in CC debt. Sure, maybe they can service provided the debt nothing goes wrong, but there is no way for them to ever escape the debt. That's bankrupt. Same principle applies to countries

Agreed, and this line is pretty suspect as well:

"Yet, markets can force the government to default if they refuse to refinance the parts of the debt that reach maturity. This is a pure case of self-fulfilling crisis."

If the government was healthy the market couldn't force it to default; as soon as yields became juicy enough a buyer would emerge. The fact that a country has run so close to the margin that they've run out of buyers for their debt is not indicative of a healthy monetary policy. It's a sign of too much debt and poor economic conditions.

Gah, that line of thinking always bugs me. "If only I could find a creditor, I'd be solvent". Well no, you're insolvent because you can't find someone willing to lend you money, which is a result of poor economic decisions on your part and an inability to signal that you're an acceptable risk. It's your problem, not theirs.

EDIT: gotta run,

dryfly wrote:

There is a not too subtle message in that.

Ha! I know where the elephants go.

I'll save a spot on the river bank for you.

noob goldberg wrote:

Well no, you're insolvent because you can't find someone willing to lend you money. It's your problem, not theirs.

And yet Timmy, Hank and Ben say that the market would have crashed, because Main St. business would not have been able to find lenders...

Citizen AllenM wrote:

The biggest worry right now is a black swan event like a BIG war in the middle east, our fragile economies would literally melt under $200 a barrel oil. So, at this point, the worries about expanding federal debt are pretty pointless, as long as private debt keeps imploding at a greater rate.

They aren't mutually exclusive. Getting deeper in debt makes the black swan event more likely. Ignore history at your peril.

So now we have front row seats to witness how far a country can push sovereign moral hazard. There's no better country in the EU to test how irresponsible a nation can be when someone else is going to pick up the check than Greece.

The Greek populace isn't willing to accept austerity measures from their own leaders. What makes anyone think they'll swallow massive pay cuts and tax increases because some German bankers order them to? How long before we see anti-Nazi banners at strikes and protests across the country?

dryfly wrote:

I prefer shade...

You'll never know the difference-

dryfly wrote:

I prefer shade...

Well, hell, that's just assumed, isn't it?

Charles Kiting wrote:

They aren't mutually exclusive. Getting deeper in debt makes the black swan event more likely. Ignore history at your peril.

Enough economic instability and little bitty sparrows cast shadows big as black swans.

Blackhalo wrote:

And yet Timmy, Hank and Ben say that the market would have crashed, because Main St. business would not have been able to find lenders...

I assume you're snarking, but I'll respond to vent my own frustration

Perhaps the market would have crashed, I don't know. But the problem wasn't a lack of money, it was a business model relying on historically high amounts of leverage. The solution to insolvency is rarely found in providing additional liquidity.

Argh.

repeat after me.

Productivity is NOT the problem.
Productivity is NOT the problem.
Productivity is NOT the problem.
Productivity is NOT the problem.
Productivity is NOT the problem.
Productivity is NOT the problem.
Productivity is NOT the problem.
Productivity is NOT the problem.

God, the mindset is just intractable.

Likewise with the constant focus on money instead of what it represents.

Damn. This is why capitalism succeeded, Not because it was better but because it was better at fostering anti-memes to prevent competitors from gaining mindshare.

So apparently Basel II failed and now there are calls for a closer coordination of financial supervision in Europe and elsewhere...if your restaurant manager poisoned some patrons...let him supervise more closely...Basel III?

Of course, we all know who's going to have to take on Germany's risk when it blows up. And Britain's too, because no one in the EU will be rushing to their aid.

The RCMP ?

Blackhalo wrote:

I do not think that is true. Ancient life expectancy, beyond infant mortality, is not too much different than pre-antibiotic man.

'Pre-antibiotic' man is like saying 'pre-fire' man. Prior to antibiotics most all of us would be dead now - myself included [at least twice].

I can see it now. Ten thousand years from now they'll unearth some poor bastard who died with a bag of Cheetos in his hand.

Cheetos Man.

Charles Kiting,
Worry about...'BIG war in the middle east.'
But you see that doesn't fit in the parameters of econ blogs...these things are partitioned for content...thus reality is separated by various disciplines...

Charles Kiting wrote:

Getting deeper in debt makes the black swan event more likely.

I like to think that too... the sandpile grows ever more unstable until a single grain falling in the wrong place - say, Archduke Ferdinand's driver getting lost and making a wrong turn - causes a leveraged catastrophe.

Maury,
Be ironic if Germany falls again from debt cycles...the lessons of history...history is allowed to repeat...

I'm applying to the feds, specifically the USDA's version of the FBI. Criminal investigator! I have a sterling resume, and there are multiple positions open, so I bet I'll get an interview. Any recommendations on how to act?

Under consumption is NOT the problem (either).
Debt and credit destruction from dangerous and extremely risky finance cycles is the problem.

Hoopajoops LTD wrote:

Any recommendations on how to act?

Subservient.

Also, ask if you get a gun and can you take it home.

Cinco:

The Hapsbugs and Ottomans weren't the guarantors of global stability. The British were. same with us, at least for the next 10 years or so.

dryfly wrote:

Watch them get on board early and often.

CA will be jealous because after they get the first bailout they will watch in horror as the next states in line get bigger ones.

Any recommendations on how to act?

like an industry capturee

I think it will still be together and more centralized. With this little crisis, I'm certain terms will be dictated (yes, they may not have to payback) about how countries in the EU can behave and do certain things moving forward. Rope them all in together even tighter.

Sovereignty for bailout.

On a thirty or fifty year timeline, the EU might eventually start to look something more like the US.

Nuke wrote:

The Hapsbugs and Ottomans weren't the guarantors of global stability. The British were. same with us, at least for the next 10 years or so.

Good point; one the other hand, Germany under Bismark had been the "guarantor" or European stability due to his strategy of entangling alliances. We call it WWI, but in reality, it was a European war for the all intents. In fact, it was called the Great War or the War to End All Wars until WWII came about.

Hoopajoops LTD wrote:

I'm applying to the feds, specifically the USDA's version of the FBI

I worked for an agency of the Fed Govt for a number of years -- no particular advice on how to act but expect that the process will take a LONG time. Don't be surprised if you apply, hear nothing for 3 months, then get an interview with 24 hours notice. Then wait another 2 months, and then another interview with 24 hours notice. Then another month (or two) before an offer. Let's see.........applying mid-February...........figure September to be thru the process (maybe even longer if they do a background investigation)............I'm sure NOVA will have better/more current thoughts

merchants of fear wrote:

Worry about...'BIG war in the middle east.'

Who knows where it'll heat up first. A German banker with greasy hair and a tiny mustache might decide to foreclose on neighboring borrowers.

Napolean wrote:

On a thirty or fifty year timeline, the EU might eventually start to look something more like the US.

Which one gets to be the New Mississippi?

Nuke wrote:

I don't agree. In 1914, they were the dominant world power. In 1948 their empire consisted for a few african states and some islands. And that was with the US backing them. Who will prop us up over the next 10-20 years? No one. Our fall will be like the Spanish or the Soviets. We will simply be pushed aside.

Who will replace us? The Chinese? Their economy is so dependent on our consumption it's ridiculous; with out it, their grip on power will be lost, or they'll spend so much effort maintaining internal stability that they won't have time for the rest of the world. Besides, their military is far less technologically advanced.

If we're going to stop being #1, can we withdraw from being world cop ?

Cool for the . Haven't looked yet, mkt soar?

slid wrote:

Yes, blackhalo has it right, tremendous death rate in the under five set

So we should just boost up the mortality rate of the > 5 crowd? Hrm... Hard to even joke about that one.

Cinco-X wrote:

Besides, their military is far less technologically advanced.

How's our technologically advanced military doin' these days?

Napolean wrote:

I think it will still be together and more centralized. With this little crisis, I'm certain terms will be dictated (yes, they may not have to payback) about how countries in the EU can behave and do certain things moving forward. Rope them all in together even tighter.

Sovereignty for bailout.

On a thirty or fifty year timeline, the EU might eventually start to look something more like the US.

The question is then if the EU ties them in tighter that - in effect - means EU owns the resultant austerity mandates not the countries. You think the Greeks will riot less if the order comes from Brussels instead of Athens? I don't.

The thing that made the United States was the fed gov NOT backing down at Ft. Sumter. EU might no go to civil war but are they willing to do a hard nosed crack down in Athens, Rome, Barcelona, etc. to make those ties actually bind? They will have to.

dum luk wrote:

can we withdraw from being world cop ?

I dunno, can we get by without cheap oil or safe(er) shipping?

Cinco-X wrote:

Who will replace us? The Chinese?

Don't make the mistake of thinking national boundaries will remain the same.

Cinco-X,
There will be shared Core regions of finance control with the semi-periphery and periphery within the masses spreading into formerly designated 'Core' industrial nations...the 'Core' is an international (wealth) financial control system now...not a nation or Empire...

mp wrote:

Well, hell, that's just assumed, isn't it?

just, make it a river in a warm locale

Cinco-X wrote:

It'd do fine in a conventional war. It wasn't designed for these police gigs in the boonies.

police gigs in the boonies = modern 'conventional war'

dryfly wrote:

You think the Greeks will riot less if the order comes from Brussels instead of Athens? I don't.

Me neither. I expect they'll riot even more or simply descend into something Afghanistan-like.

dum luk,
sixty seconds - spooky
Huh?

merchants of fear wrote:

There will be shared Core regions of finance control with the semi-periphery and periphery within the masses spreading into formerly designated 'Core' industrial nations...the 'Core' is an international (wealth) financial control system now...not a nation or Empire...

You're serious, aren't you?

sixty seconds - spooky
Huh?

Initially, I thought we were expressing very similar ideas. That's all.

Denny's is a favorite with the functionally illiterate crowd, as they have photos of everything on the menu, so it would have been an excellent location for the Central Bankers to get together, for none of the clientele would spill the beans about what they were talking about, heck, ordering a grand slam breakfast is beyond most of their capabilities...

Juvenal Delinquent wrote:

We are not very well liked as a country, by our peers...

Which country is well liked by their peers? Canada might view us with chagrin, but that's almost affectionate compared to how Japan, Germany, France, the UK, China, India, and Russia are viewed by some of their neighbors.

Hoops,
You want to go down the Fed LE road? Well, you would be a good fit on paper for a handful.

You need to plan on waiting for about a year and a half. Then it will be basic training. Probably in VA or GA

low ambition wrote:

There was an analysis a while back that decided most conflicts are won by the side with the greatest production.

I doubt that analysis is worth much, post-atom. MAD means pretty much insures police actions, proxy wars, "nation building," or Armageddon.

Blackhalo wrote:

I doubt that analysis is worth much, post-atom. MAD means pretty much insures police actions, proxy wars, "nation building," or Armageddon.

That pretty much sums it up. It's a different world today-

merchants of fear wrote:

Just speculating...ever read any 'world-system' theory? About Core areas losing influence and being replaced by other Core powers. UK...then Germany challenged...but U.S. ends up as Core area with Japan and Europe 'ruling' over semi-periphery and periphery areas that are indebted to Core areas...there's no identifiable solid Core economic area now...it's shared by China, Japan, Germany, etc. But an international 'control' system is forming...don't cha think?

Is this an alternative to geo-politics? I guess the answer is no-

yagij wrote:

Are old people a net drag on the economy? Besides Japan, do we have any sources from History where a society was as collectively old as Japan was?

Net drag? Often, especially if they are in poor health.

I bet that some other society was that old on average. There have been some wars which essentially cleared out a large portion of people between 15 and 50.

Cinco-X,
So what's your take on internatonal and national developments in this deflation?

The concert to Save California! was just announced. The tenative lineup is:

Los Lobos
The Who
and Cher

merchants of fear wrote:

But an international 'control' system is forming...don't cha think?

I can't tell if it's forming or collapsing.

I mean Cinco...is the middle class in trouble in U.S., Europe, and even japan?

Charles Kiting wrote:

Me neither. I expect they'll riot even more or simply descend into something Afghanistan-like.

Yes, but a vacation to the greek Islands, the beaches and sailing is much nicer than one to Afghanistan in almost any situation.
I suppose you could tour the poppy fields, score some opium and visit the Russian minefields.
~splat

Cinco-X wrote:

perhaps the fall of the USSR was the worst thing that could happen to us.

In another sense though, you are correct. USSR simply went bankrupt before we did, but our narcissism made us believe we were God's chosen nation instead of assessing the truth of the matter.

All I'm sure of is that some central banker asshole (like Hank Paulson) will write a book in a year detailing how he or she jetted from secret meeting to secret meeting like a spy hero to try to save the world this week.

Pure self-serving nonsense, but CNBC will shill it if they're still on the air.

splat wrote:

but a vacation to the greek Islands, the beaches and sailing is much nicer than one to Afghanistan in almost any situation.

I don't remember many people taking cruises to Cyprus in the 70's, but I was younger then and wasn't paying as much attention. I was probably smarter then, too.

Hank Paulson says country may profit from bailouts!

Paulson says nation may profit from bank bailout - Yahoo! Finance

We should have more bailouts then. Just think, we can perpetually finance our deficits with bailouts. Wow! These Goldman guys really are the best and the brightest!

I saw a bumper sticker today that said?

Socialism is a fine idea until you run out of other people's money.

It occurred to me that that is absolutely true and so is---

Captialism is a fine idea until you run out of other peoples money.

It's just the same.

Angry Saver wrote:

Hank Paulson says country may profit from bailouts!

Hedge fund with very low borrowing cost.

And the cheetos will be exactly the same.

I doubt that analysis is worth much, post-atom.

It's not post-atom. The weapons are still there.

lawyerliz wrote:

And the cheetos will be exactly the same.

That's the only thing that's really important, anyway.

Our adversaries in the sandbox use a $20 i.e.d. to cause mayhem, as our multi-million dollar sophisticated weaponry gets eaten up by the elements there...

It wasn't designed for these police gigs in the boonies.

The Marines were, and they're very good at it. Compare Marine actions in Iraq and Afghanistan to army actions and you'll see. Their secret? They are constantly starved of funding, so their focus is on developing human assets (riflemen) rather than relying on expensive gadgets. The entire military would benefit from some deep funding cuts. We would be forced to rethink they way we do business rather than simply throwing money at our problems.

Unfortunately, the Marine method of waging war doesn't generate sales for Lockheed Martin, or jobs in swing districts.

Cinco-X wrote:

I don't see how we can continue as the worlds policeman, but I don't see anyone else that can.

Isn't that a good thing? The world is better off without A policeman and is better off forming short-lived alliances when the need arises and dismantling them when they aren't needed anymore. NATO outlived its usefulness years ago.

merchants of fear wrote:

is the middle class in trouble in U.S., Europe, and even japan?

You can have either a big, strong, powerful central government, or you can have a big, strong, powerful middle class. You can't have both. The middle class time and time again votes to end itself.

But who will bail out the Earth?

Martian squidhunters?

They're on the way.

Is there any other American city that is as financially dependent upon the military as San Diego?

Juvenal Delinquent wrote:

Is there any other American city that is as dependent upon the military as San Diego?

San Antonio.

Charles Kiting wrote:

You can have either a big, strong, powerful central government, or you can have a big, strong, powerful middle class. You can't have both. The middle class time and time again votes to end itself.

Here we can agree-

This is precisely why we need more robots on the "battlefield" !!

Snark?

Yep, more expensive toys driven by bureaucrats in offices half a world away at Nellis AF base. That'll fix it. Because, you know, air power wins wars. It won in Vietnam, Korea and Iraq, and it'll win in Afghanistan. Especially robots that can be easily jammed.

Or, we could use small units of embedded infantrymen, which is the time proven way of winning insurgencies. The Marines used it in Vietnam, with far better results that the Army's search and destroy fiasco. But, it doesn't generate sales for robot or helicopter makers.

pavel.chichikov wrote:

Martian squidhunters?
They're on the way.

The grays at will not have any of that-

Cinco-X wrote:

would your neighborhood be fine without policemen?

You miss my pint entirely. My neighborhood was just fine with policemen, it's when we started throwing DEA and BATF guys into more jurisdictions that the trouble started.

Cinco,
Could be that many analysts and observers miss the significance of Basel II regs and requirements to the latest credit/bubble/bust cycle...the international management of banking...and consequences of jiggling capital reserve requirements maybe the wrong way depending on the cycle timing...