With a weird thing to show on the ticker (from ZH):
Paulson says Bush urged him to exercise, get sleep more
Paulson says Bush was like a mother to me
Buffet says he shares Paulson's mom's feelings about Bush
It's not a matter of ideology for me. I'm not anti-business, and I'm very conservative socially. I think that science and observation show that we've got a serious problem.
How does this affect state tax revenues as a percentage (generally speaking)? I don't know much about this sector and if it is like RRE in tax assessments or if it is different.
Thanks, CR for keeping things grounded with understated, data-backed posts. The global financial system seems to me to have morphed into a giant version of Las Vegas.
Further imbalances from lowering debt payments or more 'loan guarantees' may create more imbalances in order to 'stabilize' the debt crisis...the new 'bailout' economics...
Thanks greenchuts. I didn't know lower rents (therefore value of commercial buildings?) means lower tax revenues. Like I've said before, I am stupendously stupid on this subject.
Money moving into stocks...the triple digit upside is holding...money is going to put into work to help Greece with loan packages and 'fiscal discipline'...and tommorrow, bailout for _______ and tommorrow________.
Well, from Sacto/Albany/Olympia/Carson City etcs perspective, these rates aren't a good thing, they mean investors are screwed (no cap gains to tax). In world where the ten year barely pays 4%, anything with a yield much higher is only considered pure junk. It is a horrible climate for small business, and abusive tax policies towards small business from many of these state capitals is largely to blame in some cases.
has anyone on here actually made any appreciable money TRADING stocks?
I averaged 15% return during my two years of trading 1999-2001 (and I sold out at almost the peak of the DotCom boom). Never bothered to re-open an account again. The "recovery" was longer and more substantial than I anticipated, though, I have to admit.
For much of the past decade, "declinism"--the notion that America is heading toward a deadly denouement--has largely been a philosophy of the left. But more recently, particularly in the wake of Barack Obama's election, conservatives have begun joining the chorus, albeit singing a somewhat different variation on the same tune.
I have a question for the forum: has anyone on here actually made any appreciable money TRADING stocks?
Are you asking if we made a commission from trading like a broker, or if we reported capital gains during a particular year, or if in our lifetime have our net capital gains exceeded our net capital losses from sales of stock? Just curious what you're thinking.
Developers try to recruit 'anchors' (makes getting financing much easier). The 'anchors' know they're 'special' and bargain to get great (low) rent per sq/ft. The small fry are the ones paying top dollar - and they are the ones taking it on the chin if you look at reported retail sales and sales tax collection. So if the 10.6% vacancy rate is weighted towards small tenants the net for the owners is even worse.
It's not a matter of ideology for me. I'm not anti-business, and I'm very conservative socially. I think that science and observation show that we've got a serious problem.
As D.C. continued to dig out from Snowmageddon and is keeping an eye on another storm system, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration was busy making a climate change announcement.
NOAA, part of the Department of Commerce, is going to be providing information to individuals and decision-makers through a new NOAA Climate Service office. “More and more, Americans are witnessing the impacts of climate change in their own backyards, including sea-level rise, longer growing seasons, changes in river flows, increases in heavy downpours, earlier snowmelt and extended ice-free seasons in our waters. People are searching for relevant and timely information about these changes to inform decision-making about virtually all aspects of their lives,” the release says.
Earlier snowmelt? That would be nice.
Turns out the release was planned prepared ahead of the snowstorm, which shut federal agencies today and forced its senders to hold a press conference by telephone instead of at the National Press Club.
double inverse recession wrote: If they did, wouldn't that disprove EMH?
Only in an efficient market, which we clearly don't have... well, it depends which end of the you're on...
or if in our lifetime have our net capital gains exceeded our net capital losses from sales of stock?
I'm curious to know if anyone here has actually accumulated any significant amount of wealth trading equities or equity derivatives in the secondary markets (as an individual).
That's a moving goal post. We'll know in a few years whether or not it's an efficient market in the long run. My bet is that it is more efficient than we think in the long run and less efficient in the short run. A lot of that probably has to do with sticky expectations.
CNBC business 'reporter' saying we're in early recovery which he says almost everyone agrees with...the assumptive close....just assume everybody has a 'general belief' in the recovery...and that makes it 'real'...
Weird question for the commentariat: What should the cap rate be for CRE? (I assume that it would be relative to treasuries.)
Anyway, TIA from a CRE idiot.
As I said the other day, I made some really good money trading SKF, SRS and a few other double inverses prior to last march. I got out right around march, even went long, but I got back into the shorts early enough to unmake all my prior gains. That market sure can remain irrational!
Back in 93 when i was a commercial real estate appraiser, all our analysis used 10% cap rates. But this was right after a huge CRE crash and people got a bit more conservative.
I'm curious to know if anyone here has actually accumulated any significant amount of wealth trading equities or equity derivatives in the secondary markets (as an individual).
I don't know that I'd want to call it "significant"--that would have required a lot more capital than I put into it. But I'm well ahead, for what it's worth.
(And writing that guarantees me heavy losses for the foreseeable future, I know.)
I'm curious to know if anyone here has actually accumulated any significant amount of wealth trading equities or equity derivatives in the secondary markets (as an individual).
My goal isn't necessarily wealth accumulation here; it's to have an answer for my son and possible grandchildren when they ask me "what was it like during that time?" I feel the answer would be a bit more realistic if I actually attempted to participate in the market.
That said, I'm going to lie through my teeth when I tell them about all the money I made.
Turns out the release was planned prepared ahead of the snowstorm, which shut federal agencies today and forced its senders to hold a press conference by telephone instead of at the National Press Club.
WASHINGTON, Feb 9 (Reuters) - A jobs-creation bill that could pass the Senate this week would delay a scheduled 20 percent reduction in doctor payments under the Medicare health-insurance program, according to a copy of the text obtained by Reuters.
The bill also extends soon-to-expire jobless payments, healthcare subsidies for the unemployed and highway-funding programs, according to the text of the bill, which has not yet been introduced.
I also am only playing with retirement money i can't get to for almost 30 years.
Actual cash that i have from selling real estate has been sitting around making 1%. I worked hard for that and need it. No need to give it all to the squid. After watching the past several years there is no way I would trade money I needed.
I don't think anyone can generalize about caps and yields when the 12-month libor is well under 1%.
But I am happy that CR is posting this kind of stuff. I'd love to see more posts on multifamily along these lines. I'm quite curious about what caps and GRMs are doing there.
Nothing in life is for free and you must work hard to have what want. Anyone can have anything in life that they need or want....but you have to have the ability to pay for it, if not then you really could not afford it in the first place, therefore you don't deserve it.
I had a gut feeling once upon a time, and I went all in when SBC was down in the low 20s range. Had another feeling later when it was going up, up, up.... sold it all. Wasn't at the top of course, but I made a nice couple of bucks. My all in was a pitiful amount, and made my taxes interesting for the first time in my life. But the thrill just didn't do anything for me. I went back to my model pyramids.
AccuWeather.com is now projecting with our latest Blizzard Forecast that Philadelphia, Washington, D.C., Wilmington (DE), Baltimore, Atlantic City and others will break their records for snowiest season in recorded history, after tomorrow's storm. Here are the stats (in inches, current/record/expected after tomorrow)
Nearly a year and a half after the outbreak of the global economic crisis, many of the problems that contributed to it haven't yet been tamed. The U.S. has no system in place to tackle a failure of its largest financial institutions. Derivatives contracts of the kind that crippled American International Group Inc. still trade in the shadows. And investors remain heavily reliant on the same credit-ratings firms that gave AAA ratings to lousy mortgage securities.
BERLIN -- Germany is considering a plan with its European Union partners to offer Greece and other troubled euro zone members loan guarantees in an effort to calm market fears of a default, according to people familiar with the matter.
The proposed plan would be done within the EU framework but led by Germany, one of the people said. German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble has discussed the idea in recent days with European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet, according to the person.
Greece is the hardest hit of several countries, including Spain, Portugal and Ireland, that have recently seen their bonds come under pressure amid concerns that they will have difficulty repaying their debts. Those worries have also hit the euro in recent days.
A final decision on the plan may not come this week but Germany has concluded that guarantees are likely the most efficient way of prevent the spread of the debt crisis, one of the people said.
I think CNBC, as traders know, is just a long 'sales pitch' to buy with some discussion about buying A or B...but these 'analysts' mostly are sellers...when you go to a car lot, you'll meet sales staff...providing you with choices...A or B...the govt' is pitching too...so buyers will buy and get stuck with some lemons...and then it's the buyer's fault...like the big home ownership sales promotion...it's better to study consumer psychology or sales strategies, merchandising, and public relations...to understand our 'economic system'...especially techniques on how to 'close' a buyer...
Vonbek777 wrote: Did Elmo take the day off? Playing in the snow with all the DC federal employees?
What are they supposed to do? We've barely even formed the committee to study and assess the difficulty of snow removal, much less the committee that decides how to go about it. Perhaps we need a "temporary" Snow Czar to supervise these committees? It may be weeks before it is decided that the best course of action is to do something about the snow problem.
Just sold off the last 15 minutes of this gift horse....I think we will be down on the rumors of the General Greece strike.....sidelined for the time being.
The Fatherland not so sure whether those bad boys down south will keep their promise to clean up their act and go back to school?
If Germany were to go along with this, it would be the ultimate triumph of ... well, "hope over experience" doesn't quite capture it ... bullsh** over experience.
No, I am glad they aren't at work. Trust me, most of those employees are driving a long way for a commute. But here's the deal, there has been this federal push for telecommuting... but the older folks just can't get over the idea of someone sitting at home and goofing off in their underwear calling it work...you have to dress up, come in, and goof off to get credit.
IMHO some of the big reasons people fail to make money trading is that their time lines are too short, and they rarely have a plan. We went from a secular bull market to a secular bear market, and yet many people try to execute the same plan as they did before.
If you have a plan, why isn't it working? It never hurts to step back and evaluate what went wrong, if anything.
Everyone has different strengths and weaknesses, so trying to mimic or copy something that is successful for somebody else may not work for you.
I have a coworker who is a phenomenal stock picker. I suck at that, but it doesn't matter. Let your strengths make up for your weaknesses.
Out of curiousity, RockyR, what were you hoping to learn from that question?
if there is any point in trying to make money in the market. i've started to suspect that no one really gets rich doing it except for the people who run the book / own the house. i'm not sure i'm getting the point of it.
The market still hasn't opened and the volume is pathetic.
You think? It's lower than Thursday or Friday of last week, but better than any other day the last two weeks. It's the biggest volume we've seen on an up day since I don't know when--probably a couple of months or so.
(OK, I know Friday ended up, but the high volume was because of the earlier part of the day, not the last hour's spike.)
For me, it's for fun. I've made enough to buy a nice ipod over the course of the past few weeks. I just decided to set my goals low and have some fun with it. I also have some less volatile positions that I've used to hedge my wife's employee stocks that are locked in. Other than that, most is in cash, so I can sleep at night.
But I have no advice to offer anyone. I confused EEV and DXD, for pete's sake.
To maintain the power of the rich. They let the truly ambitious or gifted succeed in every generation, knowing full well they can reabsorb the wealth in a couple more generations. Power first, then wealth...wealth itself doesn't mean squat.
Baltimore, Atlantic City and others will break their records for snowiest season in recorded history, after tomorrow's storm. Here are the stats (in inches, current/record/expected after tomorrow)
Philly: 56.4 / 65.5 / 71.0
Atlantic City: 42.8 / 46.9 / 53.7
Wilmington: 53.9 / 55.9 / 67.3
Washington D.C.: 63.1 / 61.9 / 72.3
Baltimore: 60.4 / 62.5 / 74.6
Means nada, zip, zilch in the AGW concept....easy to spin positive, in fact. But you knew that....
If Germany were to go along with this, it would be the ultimate triumph of ... well, "hope over experience" doesn't quite capture it ... bullsh** over experience. ...Amazing.
Someone forgot to tell the market pumpers (along with those who started buying Euros and Pounds against the dollar) that Greece is a bit player in this mess.
What 'ya gonna do about Ireland - a nation that has enough out there in bank debt to make Iceland look like a Girl Scout picnic? Or Spain? Portugal, which has had an actual failed bond auction already?
Oh, Germany is going to bail them all out eh?
With what? The German people's good looks?
This is truly laughable. It is like arguing that "we can bail out California" but forgetting that as soon as you do Florida, Michigan, Illinois, Indiana and Arizona will instantly appear with their hands outstretched.
Never mind that state revenue as a percentage of domestic product, along with their budget deficiencies, are both trivial compared to the problems over in Europe.
You think? It's lower than Thursday or Friday of last week, but better than any other day the last two weeks. It's the biggest volume we've seen on an up day since I don't know when--probably a couple of months or so.
True enough, but most of that volume was associated with the Greece rumour this morning. All afternoon it's been really weak. Even now, while it's starting to pick up, it's just passed the normal 200mill average and there's 4 minutes left. Probably another 30 million change hands on the Dow, but not a barn burner.
But you're right, it's a stronger positive than we've seen in a while.
i like that approach, noob. i sort of started that way lately. if i could pull $250 out, i could buy an ipod. $2500 buys a tv. etc. the majority of what i have is dry. $250k buys a mortgage...
I do TA on the meme graphs and it has validity but it's also often flaky. I tried to apply some inflection point strategy to stock trading. I bought crashed stocks and sliced out 30% of the rebound and quickly re-sold. It worked extremely well except for twice when the stock flat-lined and kept falling, never a true rebound. One was well-known in inner circles as pure fraud and I'd read the rumors but discounted them. 90% loss on that thing.
The rebound has a clean, often predictable pattern in a bull market.
I think it would be deathly in a bear market, though.
I have actually written computer models, and I've made the comment that no models are accurate, but some are useful
Not all of it works, and I suspect some only works because so many people think it does, i.e., self fulfilling prophecy.
In this day and age, it's easy but sometimes tedious to figure out what works and what doesn't. You can download historical date and back test in Excel if somebody hasn't already beaten the dead horse for you.
I stick by the thinking that one should be net long or out in a secular bull market, and net short or out of a secular bear market.
You'll see the quote, "the market can stay irrational longer that you can stay solvent" here from time to time. You'd need to be really lucky to out think the market in the short run. Maybe in the long run, if you entered and exited at the right times you'd be okay. If you entered on 1/3/2000, you'd be down ~10% excluding your opportunity costs, and all the taxes you paid on the up years minus all the losses you'd now be unable to counter with gains.
TA only works part of the time, and ONLY because there are enough traders that use it that come to the same conclusions as far as support levels and wave patterns.
I stick by the thinking that one should be net long or out in a secular bull market, and net short or out of a secular bear market.
Why would you trade counter to the primary trend?
i'm working some models myself right now. earning to stop using my brain and follow the trend has been a valuable lesson. now, the challenge is identifying the trend.
the various charting indicators i've implemented so far are, in themselves, not that foolproof. in fact, since i went live in early January, they have been flat useless for the majority of the time.
TA only works part of the time, and ONLY because there are enough traders that use it that come to the same conclusions as far as support levels and wave patterns.
in this case (coming from engineer): who cares why? i mean, it's like the observer problem in quantum mechanics: if the observer changes the outcome, does it really matter what the outcome would be without the observer?
Sample sales pitch to 'buy' stocks (maybe cloaked as impartial analysis)...'It's *safe to buy now because the bottom is in, the recovery started, and there's lots of 'good deals' right now.
The reality behind the pitch...'We need your money badly now because we over-produced during an under-consumption credit/debt cycle and can't get any more loans in this environment...so we need your interest-free money to get us through this downturn & deflation and maybe you will lose your money...but you're our only hope right now...'
"Increase" is a good word in this context, right?
Good lord, nemo, you're impossible to beat.
Wasn't it Dawg suggesting that this summer would be the summer of the CRE bust?
Depends on if you are a buyer or a seller. This is good for buyers ...
best wishes
CalculatedRisk wrote:
I thought we didn't let people sell for a loss nowadays?
CalculatedRisk wrote:
Do you have the numbers farther back from another series maybe? ISTR they have been higher than this.
With a weird thing to show on the ticker (from ZH):
WTF?
Re: climate change and power production:
Not the ideological holy grail.
It's not a matter of ideology for me. I'm not anti-business, and I'm very conservative socially. I think that science and observation show that we've got a serious problem.
But this is very much OT for this forum.
Probably not far from the recent yields on JNK. At my local mall-equivalent urban space, I see lots of emptiness and pain.
Nice graph CR.....almost looks like a U shaped recovery....
How does this affect state tax revenues as a percentage (generally speaking)? I don't know much about this sector and if it is like RRE in tax assessments or if it is different.
I don't - unfortunately. It was in double digit in some of the earlier periods ... but interest rates were much higher.
best wishes
noob goldberg wrote:
I also sold my last CRE in April 2006 at a cap rate of sub 3% saying that it was crazy.
"this is good for buyers"
Famous last words......for the buyer. Last place on earth I would put any money into.
Ciao
MS
The two aren't directly related, this is just the expected income from an investment as a landlord to a retailer (unless I'm mistaken).
CBRE and Marcus/Mill are two of the bigger players in CRE leasing.
Thanks, CR for keeping things grounded with understated, data-backed posts. The global financial system seems to me to have morphed into a giant version of Las Vegas.
Further imbalances from lowering debt payments or more 'loan guarantees' may create more imbalances in order to 'stabilize' the debt crisis...the new 'bailout' economics...
Rob Dawg wrote:
So what your saying is that it's time to get back into the market?
greenchutes wrote:
Marcus Millichap was trying hard to sell me CRE in 2007. "How about a nice safe drugstore?"
Yeah, right.
9% assumed there in a tenant right ?
Even Vegas isn't what it used to be!
Interesting Times wrote:
Um, yeah, that's the tricky bit.
Thanks greenchuts. I didn't know lower rents (therefore value of commercial buildings?) means lower tax revenues. Like I've said before, I am stupendously stupid on this subject.
I have a question for the forum: has anyone on here actually made any appreciable money TRADING stocks?
Money moving into stocks...the triple digit upside is holding...money is going to put into work to help Greece with loan packages and 'fiscal discipline'...and tommorrow, bailout for _______ and tommorrow________.
rocky-
One step forward....one step back....net is basically flat -comms.
Ciao
MS
Well, from Sacto/Albany/Olympia/Carson City etcs perspective, these rates aren't a good thing, they mean investors are screwed (no cap gains to tax). In world where the ten year barely pays 4%, anything with a yield much higher is only considered pure junk. It is a horrible climate for small business, and abusive tax policies towards small business from many of these state capitals is largely to blame in some cases.
Jim Jubak: US can't grow its way out of deficit - MSN Money
RockyR wrote:
I averaged 15% return during my two years of trading 1999-2001 (and I sold out at almost the peak of the DotCom boom). Never bothered to re-open an account again. The "recovery" was longer and more substantial than I anticipated, though, I have to admit.
Nope. Next question.
rosethorn wrote:
Yes, thanks CR!
America On The Rise - Forbes.com
China's Economy - Topics - Forbes.com
RockyR wrote:
I'm up 6% in 2010.
(checks account)
No, wait, make that 5%. No, wait, 4.5%.
Dammit.
RockyR wrote:
Are you asking if we made a commission from trading like a broker, or if we reported capital gains during a particular year, or if in our lifetime have our net capital gains exceeded our net capital losses from sales of stock? Just curious what you're thinking.
Here's a statistical nugget from one of my favorite zip codes:
Median monthly owner costs for units with a mortgage: $2,522
Median monthly owner costs for units without a mortgage: $428
90026 Zip Code (Los Angeles, California) Profile - homes, apartments, schools, population, income, averages, housing, demographics, location, statistics, sex offenders, residents and real estate info
RockyR wrote:
If they did, wouldn't that disprove EMH?
All tenants are not equal.
Developers try to recruit 'anchors' (makes getting financing much easier). The 'anchors' know they're 'special' and bargain to get great (low) rent per sq/ft. The small fry are the ones paying top dollar - and they are the ones taking it on the chin if you look at reported retail sales and sales tax collection. So if the 10.6% vacancy rate is weighted towards small tenants the net for the owners is even worse.
pavel.chichikov wrote:
NOAA: Blizzard Rearranges Climate Change Announcement - Washington Wire - WSJ
double inverse recession wrote:
you're on...
If they did, wouldn't that disprove EMH?
Only in an efficient market, which we clearly don't have... well, it depends which end of the
Cinco-X wrote:
I'm curious to know if anyone here has actually accumulated any significant amount of wealth trading equities or equity derivatives in the secondary markets (as an individual).
Thank you to those who have replied so far.
ResistanceIsFeudal wrote:
That's a moving goal post. We'll know in a few years whether or not it's an efficient market in the long run. My bet is that it is more efficient than we think in the long run and less efficient in the short run. A lot of that probably has to do with sticky expectations.
double inverse recession wrote:
no. and what is up with the airplane?
RockyR wrote:
I made a lot of money for my ...... brokers.
Same with houses. My realtors always made more than I did.
kidbuck wrote:
Same with houses. My realtors always made more than I did.
Hey now, they're Realtors(TM). Show some respect!
CNBC business 'reporter' saying we're in early recovery which he says almost everyone agrees with...the assumptive close....just assume everybody has a 'general belief' in the recovery...and that makes it 'real'...
Weird question for the commentariat: What should the cap rate be for CRE? (I assume that it would be relative to treasuries.)
Anyway, TIA from a CRE idiot.
re made money trading stocks?
Nope. Never did stocks, just did risk spread via mutual funds and did make some money there once upon a time.
Any rise that we have now is due to increased savings and staying the hell out of the market.
As I said the other day, I made some really good money trading SKF, SRS and a few other double inverses prior to last march. I got out right around march, even went long, but I got back into the shorts early enough to unmake all my prior gains. That market sure can remain irrational!
Back in 93 when i was a commercial real estate appraiser, all our analysis used 10% cap rates. But this was right after a huge CRE crash and people got a bit more conservative.
What should the cap rate be?
What should be my son's GPA?
RockyR wrote:
It's a cruise missile-
RockyR wrote:
SM-62 Snark - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
I was being snarky ~ web sarcasm. Language derivatives are apparently as useful as financial derivatives.
RockyR wrote:
I don't know that I'd want to call it "significant"--that would have required a lot more capital than I put into it. But I'm well ahead, for what it's worth.
(And writing that guarantees me heavy losses for the foreseeable future, I know.)
Cinco-X wrote:
i'm still confused. am i taking fire?
edit: ohhh, never mind. I see the reply.
homedad43 wrote:
350 bp over the Fed Funds rate.
RockyR wrote:
My goal isn't necessarily wealth accumulation here; it's to have an answer for my son and possible grandchildren when they ask me "what was it like during that time?" I feel the answer would be a bit more realistic if I actually attempted to participate in the market.
That said, I'm going to lie through my teeth when I tell them about all the money I made.
yagij, when you are making money togeither, not only are you on the same page and team, by glod, it turns into a lovefest.
noob goldberg wrote:
You may not have to lie about nominal tons of paper, Bernanke willing.
JP wrote:
Are you seriously advocating an entire generation of idiocy?
EDIT: Oh nevermind, I was thinking SAT's.
Earlier snowmelt? That would be nice.
Turns out the release was planned prepared ahead of the snowstorm, which shut federal agencies today and forced its senders to hold a press conference by telephone instead of at the National Press Club.
It's global, not even regional:
BBC News - Hottest night in Melbourne for 100 years
But you knew that.
Senate jobs bill extends Medicare payment rates
Tue Feb 9, 2010 2:44pm EST
WASHINGTON, Feb 9 (Reuters) - A jobs-creation bill that could pass the Senate this week would delay a scheduled 20 percent reduction in doctor payments under the Medicare health-insurance program, according to a copy of the text obtained by Reuters.
The bill also extends soon-to-expire jobless payments, healthcare subsidies for the unemployed and highway-funding programs, according to the text of the bill, which has not yet been introduced.
rocky
I also am only playing with retirement money i can't get to for almost 30 years.
Actual cash that i have from selling real estate has been sitting around making 1%. I worked hard for that and need it. No need to give it all to the squid. After watching the past several years there is no way I would trade money I needed.
these poll results are not encouraging, Yalt aside.
i don't want to waste people's time here talking about trading. thank you for your answers.
12th Percentile wrote:
+1.
noob goldberg wrote:
If you tell them about the money you made but leave out the stories of the money you lost then it's only equivocating, which is not lying.
I don't think anyone can generalize about caps and yields when the 12-month libor is well under 1%.
But I am happy that CR is posting this kind of stuff. I'd love to see more posts on multifamily along these lines. I'm quite curious about what caps and GRMs are doing there.
the secret is to trade other people's money.
RockyR wrote:
Well, to be truthful, we're not really being all that productive here. I don't think anyone really minds, Rocky.
how bout dollar or lower stocks?
You can tell your kids what I tell my kids.
Nothing in life is for free and you must work hard to have what want. Anyone can have anything in life that they need or want....but you have to have the ability to pay for it, if not then you really could not afford it in the first place, therefore you don't deserve it.
Hope this helps.
noob goldberg wrote:
350 bp over the Fed Funds rate.
EDIT: Oh nevermind, I was thinking SAT's.
Just put a 1 in front of it
'Sposed to be 'delisted' at lower than a dollar?
homedad43 wrote:
What should be my son's GPA?
350 bp over the Fed Funds rate.
That would explain the C average.
I had a gut feeling once upon a time, and I went all in when SBC was down in the low 20s range. Had another feeling later when it was going up, up, up.... sold it all. Wasn't at the top of course, but I made a nice couple of bucks. My all in was a pitiful amount, and made my taxes interesting for the first time in my life. But the thrill just didn't do anything for me. I went back to my model pyramids.
RockyR wrote:
I've made money NOT TRADING stocks, if that counts.
No complaints today ( day is not over )
GSS up
GDX up
SRS....even .
Good day all round............so far.
pavel.chichikov wrote:
AccuWeather.com News & Blogs: Jesse Ferrell Blog
But you knew that.......
RockyR wrote:
Got any squirrel recipes?
When Fannie and Freddie went up from the lows...there were some profits without much money in...
t r orwell wrote:
No wonder the Party of No doesn't want to get rid of Don't Ask, Don't Tell.
.
Except they are "telling" everyone.
merchants of fear wrote:
Fannie and Freddie Stagger On as Troubled Wards of the State - WSJ.com
shill wrote:
Market opens in 3 minutes.
Good luck. We're all counting on you.
Germany Considers Loan Guarantees for Greece, Other Troubled EU Members - WSJ.com
I think CNBC, as traders know, is just a long 'sales pitch' to buy with some discussion about buying A or B...but these 'analysts' mostly are sellers...when you go to a car lot, you'll meet sales staff...providing you with choices...A or B...the govt' is pitching too...so buyers will buy and get stuck with some lemons...and then it's the buyer's fault...like the big home ownership sales promotion...it's better to study consumer psychology or sales strategies, merchandising, and public relations...to understand our 'economic system'...especially techniques on how to 'close' a buyer...
Did Elmo take the day off? Playing in the snow with all the DC federal employees?
RockyR wrote:
Out of curiousity, RockyR, what were you hoping to learn from that question?
Cinco-X wrote:
Bluff!
Bluff I say!
A guarantee with no backing is no guarantee!
yagij wrote:
Except they are "telling" everyone
They know we know, but they don't care because they can. Yes, they can
Germany - The Reluctant Co-signer
Hoocoodanode....?
The Fatherland not so sure whether those bad boys down south will keep their promise to clean up their act and go back to school?
Vonbek777 wrote:
Did Elmo take the day off? Playing in the snow with all the DC federal employees?
What are they supposed to do? We've barely even formed the committee to study and assess the difficulty of snow removal, much less the committee that decides how to go about it. Perhaps we need a "temporary" Snow Czar to supervise these committees? It may be weeks before it is decided that the best course of action is to do something about the snow problem.
Eek, this is going to hurt. The market still hasn't opened and the volume is pathetic. Probably means a +250 close, given my luck.
I didn't even know DPK existed. That could be a nice pickup into the close.
Just sold off the last 15 minutes of this gift horse....I think we will be down on the rumors of the General Greece strike.....sidelined for the time being.
merchants of fear wrote:
Always Be Closing.
Vonbek777 wrote:
If Germany were to go along with this, it would be the ultimate triumph of ... well, "hope over experience" doesn't quite capture it ... bullsh** over experience.
Amazing.
No, I am glad they aren't at work. Trust me, most of those employees are driving a long way for a commute. But here's the deal, there has been this federal push for telecommuting... but the older folks just can't get over the idea of someone sitting at home and goofing off in their underwear calling it work...you have to dress up, come in, and goof off to get credit.
Mr Slippery wrote:
Always Be Closing.
The closer you get, the further I fall...
Mr Slippery wrote:
Official Motto of American Manufacturing.
IMHO some of the big reasons people fail to make money trading is that their time lines are too short, and they rarely have a plan. We went from a secular bull market to a secular bear market, and yet many people try to execute the same plan as they did before.
If you have a plan, why isn't it working? It never hurts to step back and evaluate what went wrong, if anything.
Everyone has different strengths and weaknesses, so trying to mimic or copy something that is successful for somebody else may not work for you.
I have a coworker who is a phenomenal stock picker. I suck at that, but it doesn't matter. Let your strengths make up for your weaknesses.
noob goldberg wrote:
if there is any point in trying to make money in the market. i've started to suspect that no one really gets rich doing it except for the people who run the book / own the house. i'm not sure i'm getting the point of it.
Heeeeeeeeeeeeeer's
!!
is that a turd in a well that just passed me by, or the SPX?
noob goldberg wrote:
You think? It's lower than Thursday or Friday of last week, but better than any other day the last two weeks. It's the biggest volume we've seen on an up day since I don't know when--probably a couple of months or so.
(OK, I know Friday ended up, but the high volume was because of the earlier part of the day, not the last hour's spike.)
RockyR wrote:
For me, it's for fun. I've made enough to buy a nice ipod over the course of the past few weeks. I just decided to set my goals low and have some fun with it. I also have some less volatile positions that I've used to hedge my wife's employee stocks that are locked in. Other than that, most is in cash, so I can sleep at night.
But I have no advice to offer anyone. I confused EEV and DXD, for pete's sake.
RockyR wrote:
i'm not sure i'm getting the point of it.
A casino has a calculable rate of return...
To maintain the power of the rich. They let the truly ambitious or gifted succeed in every generation, knowing full well they can reabsorb the wealth in a couple more generations. Power first, then wealth...wealth itself doesn't mean squat.
Hmm no comment on the 10 year tick.....interesting.
Cinco-X wrote:
Means nada, zip, zilch in the AGW concept....easy to spin positive, in fact. But you knew that....
i've learned the timeline lesson, now. i've also learned not to watch my positions lest i get emotional and sell unnecessary losses.
what do you think of TA?
Mook wrote:
Here's KD's spittle flecked take:
Hahahah... Greecefire Prompts Intervention Rumors - The Market Ticker
Yalt wrote:
True enough, but most of that volume was associated with the Greece rumour this morning. All afternoon it's been really weak. Even now, while it's starting to pick up, it's just passed the normal 200mill average and there's 4 minutes left. Probably another 30 million change hands on the Dow, but not a barn burner.
But you're right, it's a stronger positive than we've seen in a while.
sm_landlord wrote:
Which market!? All I see is
i like that approach, noob. i sort of started that way lately. if i could pull $250 out, i could buy an ipod. $2500 buys a tv. etc. the majority of what i have is dry. $250k buys a mortgage...
Cinco-X wrote:
The S&P started to dive about 15 minutes ago. But it's ticking up into the close
RockyR wrote:
If you're out of work and looking for a score, forget it. Save your money for food-
Cinco-X wrote:
i think you underestimate me.
RockyR wrote:
I'm in favor of T&A.
noob goldberg wrote:
True enough, except for the brief volume spike when the Greece rumor was called off.
RockyR wrote:
I do TA on the meme graphs and it has validity but it's also often flaky. I tried to apply some inflection point strategy to stock trading. I bought crashed stocks and sliced out 30% of the rebound and quickly re-sold. It worked extremely well except for twice when the stock flat-lined and kept falling, never a true rebound. One was well-known in inner circles as pure fraud and I'd read the rumors but discounted them. 90% loss on that thing.
The rebound has a clean, often predictable pattern in a bull market.
I think it would be deathly in a bear market, though.
Eric wrote:
What, not a
man? 
I have actually written computer models, and I've made the comment that no models are accurate, but some are useful
Not all of it works, and I suspect some only works because so many people think it does, i.e., self fulfilling prophecy.
In this day and age, it's easy but sometimes tedious to figure out what works and what doesn't. You can download historical date and back test in Excel if somebody hasn't already beaten the dead horse for you.
I stick by the thinking that one should be net long or out in a secular bull market, and net short or out of a secular bear market.
Why would you trade counter to the primary trend?
RockyR wrote:
You'll see the quote, "the market can stay irrational longer that you can stay solvent" here from time to time. You'd need to be really lucky to out think the market in the short run. Maybe in the long run, if you entered and exited at the right times you'd be okay. If you entered on 1/3/2000, you'd be down ~10% excluding your opportunity costs, and all the taxes you paid on the up years minus all the losses you'd now be unable to counter with gains.
broward wrote:
Unfortunately this is where many of it fails to work.
RockyR wrote:
TA only works part of the time, and ONLY because there are enough traders that use it that come to the same conclusions as far as support levels and wave patterns.
CaptainMorgan wrote:
i'm working some models myself right now. earning to stop using my brain and follow the trend has been a valuable lesson. now, the challenge is identifying the trend.
the various charting indicators i've implemented so far are, in themselves, not that foolproof. in fact, since i went live in early January, they have been flat useless for the majority of the time.
i agree with eric. t&a is always right.
Cinco,
i meant the part about being unemployed and looking for a fix. i'm dumb. not that dumb.
Cinco-X wrote:
This is partly why many advocate averaging in on positions over time. I think it's a good idea, but I don't do it that often.
Asset allocation matters IMHO. Even Buffet's value strategy has an element of timing in it, even if it's hidden by the math behind it.
I think one should never average down, average on the up. That is probably better said by the old investing books, but that is how I remember it.
Mr Slippery wrote:
in this case (coming from engineer): who cares why? i mean, it's like the observer problem in quantum mechanics: if the observer changes the outcome, does it really matter what the outcome would be without the observer?
RockyR wrote:
Apparently so am I
No offense meant; just tryin' look out for a bro-
Cinco-X wrote:
all good.
Sample sales pitch to 'buy' stocks (maybe cloaked as impartial analysis)...'It's *safe to buy now because the bottom is in, the recovery started, and there's lots of 'good deals' right now.
The reality behind the pitch...'We need your money badly now because we over-produced during an under-consumption credit/debt cycle and can't get any more loans in this environment...so we need your interest-free money to get us through this downturn & deflation and maybe you will lose your money...but you're our only hope right now...'
homedad43 wrote:
Depends on how fast he can run the 40. Under 4.4 and GPA doesn't matter. Or for that matter if he's 280+ and can 'pull'.