The situation in Europe is getting a lot of analysis...when it's all said and done like the AIG deal or the rest of the bailouts in the U.S....who's going to come out way ahead? Some big banks and hedge funds or hedge funds inside big banks?
Can be I suppose! I recall sliding down a steep slope, with a foot of snow, in my VW micro bus, leaning on the horn, so cars coming uphill could get out my way! Slip sliding all the way to Campus!
I miss snow. It's been 10 years since I've seen falling snow.
I'll send you a video.
LOL - I was looking at the WaPo pix and quite frankly I have that much snow in my backyard now myself. But some how they didn't consider it newsworthy.
...when it's all said and done like the AIG deal or the rest of the bailouts in the U.S....who's going to come out way ahead?
No one was going to come out ahead from the AIG fiasco until they were made whole by the government. So what you're implying is that Greece and the rest of the PIGS will receive a bailout from somewhere.
I'm not yet convinced that such a bailout is politically possible. But I wonder how many traders are making that assumption, and what their reaction might be if it didn't occur?
LOL - I was looking at the WaPo pix and quite frankly I have that much snow in my backyard now myself. But some how they didn't consider it newsworthy.
We've had a slow snow year thus-far: only 3 feet. By the end of April 2008 we had received 440 centimetres that winter, or just under 14.5 feet. It was everywhere, and piled in gargantuan heaps because it never got a chance to melt until well into March.
Don't worry, they'll get bailed out ... Europeans won't mind paying even more astronomically higher taxes.
My rational brain agrees completely, but my intuition says that this is going to be political dynamite within member countries that will delay approval of any bailout until too late.
Europeans won't mind paying even more astronomically higher taxes
You know, they might not mind it if it kept their debt levels down, but despite 70%aggregate tax burdens in much of Europe they still manage to accumulate debt. Governments are truly wealth consuming monsters.
Krugman is saying that the case of Spain is not fiscal irresponsibility but there was a huge boom in Spain largely driven by a houising bubble that drove up wages and financed by capital outflows from Germany. Then the bubble burst leaving labor overpriced with unemployment rising and budget deficits from collapsing revenues. But Spain's government did not overspend but what happened to Spain reflects 'the inherent problems with the euro'.
So other regional currencies or an international currency may not work based on how the euro is working? Also, is Germany responsible for Spain's RE bubble by funding their bubble? Didn't other banks fund Spain's RE bubble? The Spanish Tragedy - Paul Krugman Blog - NYTimes.com
Krugman is saying that the case of Spain is not fiscal irresponsibility but there was a huge boom in Spain largely driven by a houising bubble that drove up wages and financed by capital outflows from Germany. Then the bubble burst leaving labor overpriced with unemployment rising and budget deficits from collapsing revenues.
Too bad we don't have any regular posters from Germany. I'd really like to know what the mood in Berlin is right now. How much of a political price is Merkel going to have to pay for bailing out the PIIGS? I just can not fathom Germany lettings the PIIGS default and take down the Euro.
It's a very strong El-Niño, aka Pineapple Express, this year. Hot air from Hawaii is keeping the northwest coast warm + wet, which is forcing the cold arctic air to come down harder on a smaller area on the eastern half of the continent CRWS Jet Stream Map Menu
If this becomes more of the norm, then sure, get some equipment that can be quickly converted to snow duty (or offer to hire anyone with a pickup that has a plow on the front), have a snow driving education campaign, maybe bring in a mandatory snow tire bylaw, standard post-snowfall street parking procedures so streets can be plowed, etc...
If it's once every 10 years, the best solution is probably just to take it easy for a couple of days where they just worry about emergency stuff
yagij,
I was reading that 2nd homes and vacation homes were very popular in Spain for middle-class and upper-class Europeans...so German banks financed & funded those purchases...
Ohhh, nice. Next time he's on, can someone ask him what the view of the situation is from Germany?
Haven't heard from him in a long time. I suspect he's still around as an observer, I would like to think my stunning forecast of a downturn in Germany left an impression on him. He was a fun poster
Last one out turn off the lights......400 jobs also
LAS VEGAS -- The Ritz-Carlton Lake Las Vegas will close May 2,
An employee said notifications were sent out Monday morning and a hotel official confirmed the closing a few hours later.
The resort, which opened in 2003, is among the top luxury destinations in southern Nevada and recently won the AAA Five Diamond award. Despite the accolades, the Lake Las Vegas area fell on hard times during the recession. Last year, the three golf courses within the resort were closed or went bankrupt.
USA Today said the move will put nearly 400 employees out of work.
The 348-room resort -- 17 miles away from the Las Vegas Strip -- is owned by Village Hospitality, an arm of Deutsche Bank, according to USA Today.
"They have decided to cease funding the hotel," Ritz-Carlton spokeswoman Vivian Deuschl said. "We reluctantly agreed to close the hotel." Deuschl could not say how much money the resort is losing, USA Today reported.
The Federal Reserve created TALF under Section 13(3) of the Federal Reserve Act, which permits the Federal Reserve to authorize a Federal Reserve Bank to lend to nondepository institutions in “unusual and exigent circumstances.” The Federal Reserve viewed creation of TALF as part of its monetary policy activities because, having already reduced the federal funds target rate to close to zero, it needed additional mechanisms, like TALF, to provide liquidity directly to borrowers and investors in key credit markets. GAO is prohibited by statute from auditing deliberations, decisions, or actions by the Federal Reserve or any Federal Reserve bank
"Haven't heard from him in a long time. I suspect he's still around as an observer, I would like to think my stunning forecast of a downturn in Germany left an impression on him. He was a fun poster"
Werner so shocked how prescient we all were that he was left speechless.
GAO was tracing the TARP money into TALF, sorry here's more:
TALF may present risks beyond the potential risks to TARP, such as the risk that FRBNY might fail to identify material noncompliance with program requirements by TALF participants. Because the Federal Reserve views TALF as a monetary policy tool, however, statutory limitations on GAO's authority prohibited GAO from auditing FRBNY's role in administering TALF. Treasury has not fully documented its rationale, as part of its decision-making processes, for reaching final decisions related to the risks of TALF--including decisions involving other agencies. For example, the outcomes of Treasury's internal analysis of the amount of equity that TALF borrowers should hold in TALF ABS collateral, along with other TALF program terms, sometimes differed from FRBNY's. However, there was no clear documentation or explanation of how the discrepancies were resolved or how final decisions were made with FRBNY.
If this becomes more of the norm, then sure, get some equipment that can be quickly converted to snow duty (or offer to hire anyone with a pickup that has a plow on the front), have a snow driving education campaign, maybe bring in a mandatory snow tire bylaw, standard post-snowfall street parking procedures so streets can be plowed, etc...
If it's once every 10 years, the best solution is probably just to take it easy for a couple of days where they just worry about emergency stuff
having lived in Vermont during my formative years, this lack of can do around snow removal is just such a joke. I had to dig my car out every day so I could drive it to High School 45 minutes in a white out..what a bunch of BS
Werner so shocked how prescient we all were that he was left speechless.
I'm hoping his American employer, presumably in auto parts, around Bavaria didn't lay him off or put him on short time. I actually think a big part of it was the change in commenting systems acting as a small barrier and he just passively didn't want to hear "I told you so" from everyone re: decoupling, I like to think he still reads the comments though.
Or is "det cord" the cord used to wire explosives to detonation switches?
Det cord is C4 explosive, but comes in "cable" form, about 1/4 inch in diameter. Comes on spools.
You can use it by itself for boobytraps, etc., or you can use it to link bricks of C4, like if you're blowing a bridge and have several different charges.
I think I just left something in the toilet that Deutschebank/Commerzbank/Hypo/Landesbanks/etc wanted to invest in (edit: don't call me to share in the spoils, they apologetically full with bad shipping loans)
So if a supposedly fically responsibe govt. can get in trouble from an internationally financed boom/bust...then any nation can be taken out with risky capital inflows in our global economy...and financially networked 'system'...
A potential 'independent' third party movement of disaffected, disgruntled, and disgusted voters has already been subverted and hijacked by a trojan horse.
DeeperDepression,
I think Krugman was saying that Spain was running a budget surplus with low debts relative to GDP even on the eve of their 'crisis' and thus were fiscally responsible...
Note: they weren't independent.
Consider that Palin praised, "Common sense conservative, Scott Brown" during her tea party speech. Give him about 10 votes before they start cursing that RINO...
All I saw out of the tea party convention is that they were just about as anti-Obama as the GOP... well even moreso... what a coup for the GOP that they can use the teaparty as some type of attack arm...
Tuesday
Cloudy...snow...mainly in the afternoon. Snow accumulation around an inch. Highs in the lower 30s. North winds around 5 mph...becoming east in the afternoon. Chance of snow 80 percent.
.
Tuesday Night
Snow. Snow may be heavy at times after midnight. Additional snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches. Lows in the upper 20s. Northeast winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of snow near 100 percent.
.
Wednesday
Snow...mainly in the morning. Snow may be heavy at times in the morning. Total snow accumulation of 12 to 16 inches. Highs in the lower 30s. Northwest winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. Chance of snow near 100 percent.
I think Krugman was saying that Spain was running a budget surplus with low debts relative to GDP even on the eve of their 'crisis' and thus were fiscally responsible...
"A potential 'independent' third party movement of disaffected, disgruntled, and disgusted voters has already been subverted and hijacked by a trojan horse."
"YLSP (profile) wrote on Mon, 2/8/2010 - 10:38 pm
reply ignore user
Palin already has the secret plans to take down Somalia, Sudan, and other places that are harboring Al Qaeda..."
YLSP,
Yeah...the so-called 'tea party' is already painting itself into a rigid 'conservative' corner...this is good for the two-party tango...anti-bailout sentiment is on both sides of the public political divide I think...so a good starting point for a wider political movement...
crisis was 'created'
Probably a lot of evidence for major boom/bust credit cycles being created repeatedly by political/economic policies...but a lot of social resistance for this 'theory'...
The company fell by its 80 yen daily limit to 159 yen at 10:23 a.m. in Tokyo. It was the biggest intraday decline since the stock began trading in March 1988. Parent Koito Manufacturing Co., a Toyota Motor Corp. affiliate, fell as much as 13 percent, the most in more than 15 months.
...
The seats to be fixed are in planes operated by 32 airlines in countries including the U.S., China, Japan and Singapore. Koito plans to make all of the repairs, which predominantly affects Boeing and Airbus aircraft this year.
I don't know; I only watched 10-15 minutes of her speech.
I did find it funny that Teaparty Convention got top billing over whatever the DNC was doing. To be honest I can relate more to teaparty folk, than RNC or DNC politicos; as they appear to be earnest people... they just need to dump Palin as their speaker and move more "independent". But I don't think they really or.
Palin strikes me more of a "I have a headache" type...
Never worked with it myself, though did get through an underground mine safety course where we shot a round at the mine face - all electrical setup, drilled the shot using a compressed air jackleg and all that - "fire in the hole!" Shock wave through the ground tickles your toes first then the compression wave comes out of the adit... thing is about working underground is that everything has to work right or you die.
I don't think the teaparty folk came off as racists, just "right of the mainstream GOP". I suppose that Obama is black and all I heard them do is bash Obama for most of the night, it might be construed as "racist" but I think it was more just rabidly anti-Democrat.
I saw the WND guy speak and he also came off as a bit of a loon... it sounded like some of the teaparty folk were saying Obama isn't a citizen and is an illegitimate President.
You know what I love about Canada, it's always got a small town feel to it in some way
a local hot dog stand has been been one of the big news stories (Japadog, good value btw)
I'm listening to some of the Volker Rule hearing...
I don't know who is talking to him, but some Senator said something like,
Southern Senator: "In this last crises... we didn't have any proprietary trader lose money."
Volker: "In this last crises? I recall at the beginning... a very large loss of a French bank from a single loan trader that cost hundreds of millions of dollars."
Senator: "In the United States of America, there was not a single loss..."
Volker: "I'd have to go and look back at the trading I do know that some companies suffered plenty of losses in their trading desk" .
Senator: "I'm just going to say that is a fact unless someone tells me any different."
And then the Treasury witness gets in about how banks took losses in their proprietary trading and other losses...
IIRC, det cord is basically a really long straw full of PETN with a propogation rate >20,000 ft/sec...
Yeah, it's very fast. I remember det cord was a really dark green and, at night, it was almost impossible to tell the difference between it and powder fuse, which was black, as I recall. I hope they fixed that problem.
"Greek two-year bond yields have surged to the highest in almost a decade and credit-default swaps on Spain and Portugal rose to a record yesterday as concern about Europe’s public finances spreads. So far, finance officials have stuck to their line that Greece won’t need outside help to reduce its deficit to the EU limit of 3 percent of gross domestic product, from 12.7 percent. "
What about the rest of the PIIGS? I can smell that systemic risk from here.
Well, at least as far as a couple of IMF Monetary and Cap Markets guys reckon. Which smacks somewhat of the highly paid studying the blindingly obvious, but there ya go.
Get the feeling they might be caught without a good answer to an immediate and time-bound policy or investment question, like "what is the interbank counterparty risk of the past 3 months of sovereign credit movements, by instrument, scale, and institutional domicile?"
I don't quite understand Krugman's insistence that Spain is fine and it's all the Euro's fault. That's like bragging about Arizona's budget surplus in 2006 and complaining that they're only in trouble now because they can't print their own currency.
And his latest post is about how tiny Greece's economy is and how a default would not be a big deal. It's like he has no idea that the big concern is that it's going to destroy the Euro and wreck a whole mess of European banks.
The guy has a Nobel and his own column at the NYT. Many people were even calling for him to be Treasury Sec or some other high position. And yet it feels like there are tons of random people on this blog who have a much better grasp of what's going on in Europe than he does...
I really object to the earlier statements about China using money as a "cold war tactic".
The US owes $2 trillion to the Chinese. The Fed prints money; the Chinese stay pegged to the dollar. Fat Americans consume the surplus of Chinese labor, then fat Americans blame the victim for our debt.
I've posted about China's neglect of civil liberties but to argue that they should let us defraud them with currency manipulation is absurd.
"The scariest thing about liquidity crises, said Krugman, is that it is very hard for policy makers to do anything about them. Central banks can respond by cutting interest rates or lending money to banks that are short of cash
“But when liquidity dries up, the normal tools of policy lose much of their effectiveness,” said Krugman. “Reducing the cost of money doesn’t do much for borrowers if nobody is willing to make loans. Ensuring that banks have plenty of cash doesn’t do much if the cash stays in the banks’ vaults.”"
“What were they smoking?” asks the cover of the current issue of Fortune magazine.
part of the answer lies in what hasn’t happened to the men on that Fortune cover — namely, they haven’t been forced to give back any of the huge paychecks they received before the folly of their decisions became apparent.
they should let us defraud them with currency manipulation is absurd.
The accumulation of that $2 trillion, WAS currency manipulation. I'd tend to think that after the first trillion they have pretty much abdicated any room for complaint. He who lives by the peg...
iTraxx Europe 95 Spread 3.90%
iTraxx Europe Crossover 497 Spread 1.03%
iTraxx Europe HiVol 137 Spread 2.07%
iTraxx Europe Senior Financials 106 Spread 3.04%
Sooo, lemme see here, iTraxx Main credit risk is blowing wider, 'bout 8 bps since ?Friday, and snr financials are too, slightly faster. I don't have the chart on hand but a danger zone (pre-LEH, or BSC at the brink) was when Main less Snr Fins is around -10bps. Okaaay.
But it's slow. Compared with some Latin or Eastern Yerp maneuvers, this is just getting going - regionwide.
(Are we there yet? Are we there yet? say the doomer kids in the back...
Dammit, quieten down back there. We're getting there, promise!)
to argue that they should let us defraud them with currency manipulation is absurd.
Ah, that's not the argument. We're not complaining about them not letting us defraud them; we're complaining that we gave them a weapon, taught them how to use it, and then they realize they can use it on us. Damn ingrates.
The dollar was also artificially inflated relative to the Yuan, resulting in an awful lot of US industry moving to China, and costing the US a somewhat disproportionate level of job and industry loss. Had China diversified their holdings to Yen and Euro, it might not have been quite so painful for US labor, and they might not be quite so over the barrel, with regard to dollar devaluation.
Just a little comment to those who always make snide comments about how DC people can't handle snow. Yes, that IS true. But keep in mind that WITHOUT snow, The DC region has the second worst traffic congestion in the nation. So Imagine LA, put a slippery oil slick on every road, and then remove a ~1/2 lane from the interstates and get rid of the merge lanes. It would be a nightmare EVEN IF everybody knew how to drive in it.
Sanitas said AFIPER will sue to seize the Nice church if an appeals court upholds that ruling.
“Russia says czarist-era problems are no longer its problem, but seeing as they want the Nice cathedral back, it seems czarist property is theirs,” Sanitas said. “Well, their non-refunded debt will be their property, too.”
It is always thus. Lending to the profligate does not make them happy. The result is usually a bitter debtor, blaming his lender for the injustice of his interest payments.
I don't quite understand Krugman's insistence that Spain is fine and it's all the Euro's fault.
I'm with you oxtail. Remember those economists back around 2004-5 who were saying that Increasing levels of consumer debt despite stagnating wages were OK because the balance sheets were fine? How'd THAT work out?
"It's like he has no idea that the big concern is that it's going to destroy the Euro and wreck a whole mess of European banks."
There are consequences and then there are CONSEQUENCES. How many times Greece has been in trouble aka former military dictatorship (in the seventies)? Many friggin times, nothing new. Euro is not going to be destroyed because the alternative offers no benefits, especially when all the DEBTS are now in euros.
Reissue your own currency and possibly triple your debts in real terms, not to mention what it will do to the trading with European partners. Would California be better off if they issued their own currency because they are now bankrupt? Not likely because their debts are in dollars. You leave monetary union ONLY if you think you can do better.
The same with Spain, their banks are especially battle hardened veterans in these kinds of times, they know how to survive in very tough high inflation/interest rates/unemployment combo environment. It was actually a SPANISH bank that bailed out one bank in Holland recently.
Italy is doing quite OK in the industrialized northern part, southern part has always been poor and in trouble every since the Fall of Rome. They also "know the drill" but Americans and Brits do not. UK especially is a sitting duck for speculators with very bad budget deficit and with heavy debt burden.
Not to worry, they have a reserve fund of a couple of billion to cover any problems. That's right, billion with a "b". The big banks own this too big to fail bank, opened in March under the auspices of the NYFed.
interest rates are usually at their lowest at the end of the credit cycle. As capitalist garner ever greater amounts of promises, they have to reinvest them back into the same paper. Exactly what happened just before the John Law bubble blew out.
I am the ONLY customer at the 13 Coins restaurant.
Because the Fed and its insider prime dealers are buying.
Then why does that appear to "fool" some of the people most of the time?
I don't understand much about this stuff. It seems the fed having to backstop an auction is kind of coprophagous, and would repulse existing holders of these instruments.
The paper has to go somewhere. Think of it as supply and demand. Tons of paper building up against a shrinking supply of willing borrowers. Price of paper (interet rate) collapses, at least until faith in the paper fails.
would repulse existing holders of these instruments.
Yes, China is angry, and grumbling about selling weapons to N. Korea, Venezuela, Cuba, et al. The US response: well, just let us cheat you with currency games. You need us to "buy" your factory goods.
As other posters mentioned above, the currency games take two to tango. The incomplete sterilization of all that RMB sloshing around the economy has got to be a headache in itself. I think they're about to discover there is no graceful way to deflate such asset bubbles.
Meanwhile, they're taking it out on the folks at home as well. The following story about dissident crackdowns is getting a lot of coverage in HK since a bunch of reporters from HK were roughed up today at the sentencing.
Meanwhile the SCMP reports that an elite school to train super journalists for the state owned media will attempt "world class communications and image building".
Of course the dealer shares some blame with the junkie. The fatass US consumer consumes, the Chinese elite and international financiers get rich, and the sweatshop slaves suffer. China will have to eat some of our inflation, and if there's justice their leaders will get the same fair trials as the dissenters.
But I don't buy the argument that a sucker deserves to be taken advantage of. What's that end game?
"The accumulation of that $2 trillion, WAS currency manipulation. I'd tend to think that after the first trillion they have pretty much abdicated any room for complaint. He who lives by the peg."
China is already about 4500-4800 billion dollar economy, will be second biggest economy soon, bypassing Japan. Loans and exports to USA are both pretty much irrelevant to them already, few hundred billion dollars per year. More like a hobby now.
Even if USA would disappear from the map, it would only be temporarily nuisance for Chinese, lasting about few years with their current growth rate. They do have a quite nice dollar reserve that they can use to buy strategic resources (from all around the globe).
GDP Index in real terms (baseline 1952):
1990: 1855
1995: 5849
2000: 8947
2003: 13582
2005: 18387
2007: 24662
2008: 31404
2009/1-9: 21782. (corrected, 7.7 percent growth expected last year).
China is growing 10 percent almost every year. Internal demand there just is so huge with four+ times the population of USA. Of course there will be problems sooner or later because of lack of democracy with one party rule (two-parties-turned-into-one rule is so much better in the USA, right?) but that will be another story.
It would surprise me if welching on the IOU's was part and parcel of any master plan. I think our deficit spending and debt driven consumption mentality had its own dynamic. While it was certainly enabled by the Chinese, but there were plenty of wise heads who said, and continue to say, that the debt can be serviced, higher value added is found in tech, and profits are to be enjoyed by design and marketing-- the whole platform company chimera.
Meanwhile, barring a trade war, the global wage arbitrage box will remain open. China's short circuiting of exchange rate movement is hobbling the development of lesser (than she) developed countries (and states of the union, one might add).
I watched a documentary about Chinese parents of quake victims buried in their school. The contrived care to avoid criticizing the Party was sickeningly obvious. Without cheap uncensored public access to the internet China (and Russia) will never be attractive to live in.
The knee-jerks who blindly oppose the welfare state, public education, minimum wage, maximum work-week...can't see past their fat stomachs.
Factories for mass production are only as valuable as what the masses can afford to pay for the products. "We" could use the armies of the unemployed to service a feudal elite. Will they bother to fight off the invaders or just slaughter the elite? CR posted a quote that Greece is playing a game of chicken. Capital and labor, students and riot police, draft-dodgers, mutineers, courts-martial, are forever engaged in games of chicken. Economics is game theory.
To preempt regulation, the TooBigs set up this bad bank last year to clear toxic CDS.
The 3-card monte game is "self-regulated", in a big casino. The NYFed said 'no problem, we're on top of the risk.' I called them in April to inquire about reserve requirements. "Oh, that's not public information".
> LONDON -- Europe was all abuzz with expectations for a European Union-led rescue attempt of Greece, following news on Tuesday that European Central Bank President Jean Claude Trichet was set to leave a meeting with the Reserve Bank of Australia in Sydney a day early to attend an informal gathering of E.U. leaders on Thursday.
Though the subject of the meeting is not yet known, market watchers speculated that officials would be exploring solutions to Greece's debt problems.
Feb. 9 (Bloomberg) -- China Investment Corp.,the nation’s sovereign wealth fund, invested for the first time in the U.S. Oil Fund, an exchange-traded crude-futures fund, joining Morgan Stanley & Co. and Goldman Sachs Group among the top holders.
China Investment became the fourth-largest holder in the Oil Fund by buying 2 million shares, equal to 3.48 percent of the outstanding units, with a value of $78.6 million, according to a Securities and Exchange Commission 13-F filing posted on Feb. 5. It also took a 1.45 million share stake, or 0.4 percent of the total, in the SPDR Gold Trust worth $155.6 million.
Chinese miners and oil companies have bought up zinc mines in Australia, oil reserves in Nigeria, and gold deposits in the Philippines to feed the country’s demand for raw materials to fuel its economic growth. The $300 billion sovereign wealth fund pumped about $10 billion into commodity-related concerns in the second half of 2009.
“It looks like they are aware of their market power in commodity markets and want to hedge against the impact their buying has on commodity prices,” said Timothy Condon, chief Asian economist with ING Groep NV in Singapore. “I think the reserves, via the CIC, will be used to hedge the risk of a cutoff of key raw material supplies by buying stakes in commodity producers.”
CIC’s investments through the SPDR Gold Trust are equivalent to 145,000 ounces of bullion, or about 0.4 percent of the 33.9 million ounces China’s government maintains, based on data from the International Monetary Fund.
Who ends up holding that astronomically big bag of flaming trillions in poo then? Shall we just call it 'waste' that qualifies for a superfund cleanup? (TARP on steroids then?)
"As we approach the one-year mark for CDS clearing, five trillion dollars in CDS cleared is an important milestone in the reduction of systemic risk, and a significant technical achievement," said ICE Chairman and CEO Jeffrey C. Sprecher. "We are clearing a range of CDS indexes and single-names in the U.S. and Europe, which is an accomplishment we share with clearing members, buy-side participants and regulators. Our stress-tested risk management platform, including a complete segregation and portability framework, is backed by a $3 billion guarantee fund dedicated to CDS."
Through January 22, ICE Trust cleared over $3.5 trillion in CDX and $10.3 billion in single names, resulting in $234 billion and $7 billion in open interest, respectively.
Leveraged only 80-1. Reduced risk... BWAAAHHHAHHH.
yogi...I saw that and highlighted that part to my poor email friends I rant to. Without the changes made in the CFMA this market couldn't have even existed. I want to throw Uncle Phil a party.
and yogi...all those who don't think commodities are not manipulated needs to read the article linked above. If people believe their investments in the ETF sector is wise then check out the majority holders, you're a little ant in a universe of smart amoral scumbags who will squeeze every last cent from the serfs in these opaque markets through manipulation of commodities. Bend over.
I take a GIANT issue with a sovereign taking physical ownership of international producers AND playing in the ETF/futures commodities sector. No rules, just chaos and we are sooooo screwed.
broward wrote:
We'll be lucky if we don't get a full-blown hot war.
How much hotter can it get?
How much worse?
• A strike at a South American mine owned by China and the owners bring in their own security forces to establish order. That's how much worse.
• As part of a humanitarian effort China agrees to build and operate a deep water port on the west coast of Mexico.
that's how much worse. I'm only scratching the surface.
There's no 'good' solution for Greece just as there wasn't back in 2008 in New York. Neither the BearS bailout nor the Lehman burnout was the 'right' choice - the one that 'could have' avoided financial Armageddon. For just as it wasn't all and only 'about' BearS or Lehman, it also isn't so with Greece. Like the earlier two, it's just the entry point to a bigger, deeper and wider mess.
...
This goes to the second, more fundamental and more disturbing issue which links what happened in 2008 with what we might face in 2010. Or later, if we manage to postpone it by 'succeeding' with Greece. For simply, we 'solved' the 2008 problem of too much debt in the (developed world) private sector by shifting it to the public sector. By the trillion. We took all that dodgy bank and other debt and turned it directly and indirectly into Triple-A sovereign (country) debt. We now see the consequences, starting most graphically with Greece - and Spain, and Portugal. With Italy and Belgium and Austria coming up behind. And the UK and the US?
Yeah, I called ICE Trust last year too. Friendly enough. They said they could withstand the default of any large counterparty (seller). What if 2 go down?...[Presumably, their platforms say that could never happen]
We'll be lucky if we don't get a full-blown hot war.
As a resident of the Middle East, we all just can't wait for the big "surprise" Iran is supposed to announce on 2.11. We've also noticed the commitment to build up an arms race in Saudi as well.
Annual fees for guarantees in 401(k)s can be 95 basis points or more above the retirement plan’s investment-management fees, she said. A basis point is 0.01 percentage point.
“Those fees may reduce account values by 7 percent to 9 percent over 10 years,” said Drew Denning, vice president of retirement and investor services
...
“The portability of these contracts at this juncture is minimal between insurers,” Carl said. “You’re essentially locked into the program you choose -- or are defaulted into.”
That’s because an insurer calculates its annuity payments based in part on the life expectancy of a pool of individuals holding such contracts, which makes it harder to switch from one insurer to another, Carl said.
Solvency of the offering company is another impediment, said Robert Toth, an attorney who specializes in retirement plan products and services.
“How do you make a decision that the insurance company will still be here 30 years from now?” said Toth, who is based in Fort Wayne, Indiana. “Employers fear making that choice and being responsible.”
It's interesting that the Chinese have taken positions in Motorola, Coke, etc. The Japanese preferred golf courses. But there was and is no talk of manipulation. But if the Chinese buy oil or zinc, then they are manipulating the market? To me, those investments are promoting research into alternative energy development and substitutes for zinc (like plastic). It will be interesting to see what China does with crude oil delivered at Cushing, Oklahoma.
The key to speculative trades like oil or CDSs is adequate margins, not who owns them.
The Chinese own dollars and want to spend them, what should we tell them? I don't think we need an approved investments list or require 100% margins.
With American equipment, fighter aircraft, tanks, etc.????
No, Saudi wants to manufacture its own arms (comforting thought). This was in the Saudi Gazette this weekend; I'm surprised it didn't show up in the west. Can't find the link, will work on that.
Also, saw something a week ago that the US also will be supporting/advising on an expansion of the Saudi military by about 30,000 Saudi men. That was about a week ago, will also work on that link.
It's interesting that the Chinese have taken positions in Motorola, Coke, etc. The Japanese preferred golf courses. But there was and is no talk of manipulation.
The fat lady hasn't sung in China yet. Wait until the bubble blows up there. Webster's dictionary will start spelling DEFLATION in all caps.
I suspect China will blow off a hand while trying to assemble a financial terror bomb. Their $2t won't help when social pressures at home disrupt the export machine.
traderwalt, you don't see a conflict of interest in a sovereign (or super mega international brokerage) holding physical, owning the producers AND trading in an opaque/closed futures market as a conflict of interest?
We're taking about trading and yes margins; that will directly benefit physical holdings...is that not anti-trust? Regarding CDSs the few little b's to cover the Ts as yogi rightly points out is laughable.
And like I said, who ultimately will be saddled with those big flaming piles WHEN that implodes? Do the broker/bankers have THAT much in capital reserves. If they do then they should buy land and proclaim themselves an independent nation.
edit: Oh wait...the Bahama's already serve that purpose...I forgot.
How much worse?
• A strike at a South American mine owned by China and the owners bring in their own security forces to establish order. That's how much worse.
• As part of a humanitarian effort China agrees to build and operate a deep water port on the west coast of Mexico.
that's how much worse. I'm only scratching the surface.
You miss my point.....what's the unknown unknown in a post MAD world? I don't know the answer.
Nanoo, let me venture to say that it is precisely those exposed to risk on physical holdings (short futures) or future deliveries (long futures) who need to hedge.
The fact that a futures contract is a certain grade delivered at a certain time to a certain place is just to standardize the contract so that all that remains is price. There will be premiums or discounts applied to figure what physical delivery will be priced at, for those longs who stand for delivery.
Generally the hedge funds get their head handed to them when they attempt to do that, so to the best of my knowledge they seldom do.
Christ was right. It is better to give than to receive.
James Monroe had other ideas. And just as China had her tribute from surrounding states, I think they'd avoid our backyard unless they intend direct provocation.
NN,in the years I have been trading on exchanges, many trading firms have been liquidated. Exchanges have policies for trading entities that don't keep positions adequately margined. Positions are liquidated before the money runs out, with only a few exceptions. 25 years ago on firm blew up on the Comex and didn't have adequate capital to pay its customers. IIRC, the exchange assessed its members according to the percentage of the business each firm did on the exchange. No customers lost any money. Remember that futures trading is a zero sum game. The money is still there someplace.
That's called capitalism. I loved People Express no frills NY to Miami for $59. If there is competition, consumers should pay for what they consume. There are no free blankets.
Safety shouldn't be compromised, and monopolies must be busted. You could hire non-union airport checkers at below minimum wage. More planes will explode, however.
“If this upcoming storm indeed verifies, it will lift annual snowfall to historic levels and set many all-time snowfall records across this portion of the country,” he said."
No customers lost any money. Remember that futures trading is a zero sum game. The money is still there someplace.
Wrong. Take ICE Trust, above. $240 billion open interest secured by $3 billion. Cascading defaults will crash the system like in '32, once the last backdoor bailout card is played. Meanwhile the bankers eat their bonus cake.
No, the $8 blanket you complained about is capitalism. I like the choice. Transportation safety is socialism. Fly Air Somalia if you don't want taxes. I'm sure the blanket is gratis.
Bald headed guy one just said Volker was antediluvian in his views. The smarmy outlook on how very important they all are and how little everyone else is is disappointing. cnbc
Of companies that suspended or reduced 401(k) match programs, 80% planned to restore them this year, according to a survey conducted by Hewitt Associates, a global human resources consulting firm
So price discovery is set by those who take delivery but futures (and shorts) can and do affect market price. I laughed my ass off in '08 when someone didn't get a memo...got squeezed big in oil and had to sell fast...in a span on one hour there was a perfect inverted V. Sell or take delivery...I would have loved to see those leaky oil barrels sitting in front of some pretty offices in NYC.
I firmly believe after '08 and the volatility over such a brief period of time was a perfect demonstration of how institutional traders can not only affect end product pricing but squeeze the producer/supplier contracts.
Its obvious and now we have a sovereign nation getting into the game with exceptionally large dollar holdings. Lets see how that works out for J6P truck driver buying diesel and just who profits by how much. We already know that answer to that question.
The CFMA has proven itself to be destructive and highly flawed after a mere 10 years. Its time to repeal it NOW. The futures markets worked just fine for 60+ years and was created after GD1 when those markets were identified as a factor which led to GD1 and deepened the misery. The CFMA and Enron loophole it created is clearly doing the same now except in vastly larger ways than prior to GD1.
Yes, you see there's this thing called the profit motive. If you pay people shit they won't care much about their job. We've had prevailing wage statutes longer than unions. But the knee-jerks don't bother with history. Boy I hope the NFL goes on strike again.
So you have no problem with your tax dollars supporting private business then?
TSA took a large operating expense from the airlines and put it squarely on the shoulders of the US taxpayer.
Then the airlines have the nerve to charge a "9/11 security fee".
Do you maintain that spending tax dollars on "transportation safety" is the only way to make travel "safe"?
1 currency, not necessarily. Most exchanges, I believe, can require more money immediately and then liquidate you. Since the clearing firm guarantees your margin, they pretty much can liquidate you for any reason. That "any reason" could be that they just don't want any risk in the market you're trading in. Their compensation is minuscule relative to the risk they assume, so they will do almost anything to keep from suffering losses. Also they have been in business for long enough to realize that there are only two kinds of risk managers: the quick and the dead.
If you pay people shit they won't care much about their job.
You and I agree with THAT statement. Unionization though is not necessarily the "magic fix". BTW, People's Express you talked up was a non-union company (now called Jet-Blue).
There's nothing an average Joe or Jane can do to stop the bank robbery in progress at the highest levels, but there's plenty you can do to distance yourself from their actions...
I firmly believe after '08 and the volatility over such a brief period of time was a perfect demonstration of how institutional traders can not only affect end product pricing but squeeze the producer/supplier contracts.
I'm not disputing that there's a big influence, just questioning why standing for delivery (or not) is evidence of a short squeeze.
In fact I am quite sure that Spring Summer '08 was such an instance and hurt a lot of traders, some fatally. But how much was passed through to retail markets? How about in rice, where there was a spike in prices . . . but no futures market involved. Just old fashioned panic buying and hoarding, if I'm not mistaken.
New regs, scrutiny over what's going on w/ sovereigns? Absolutely needed, sure.
Been through this several times. The game is for everyone to tie themselves at the hip and threaten to default within minutes. Paulson was on his knees. Of course all contracts "net out". If all the insurance companies go bust, no buildings collapse. But then no one has any insurance. Do you want no insurance? Good luck.
....this is what happens in the REAL world when news isn't accommodating to its major sponsors......
"Toyota dealers in five southeast states have pulled their commercials off ABC TV local affiliates, complaining about the coverage of Toyota safety problems by ABC News and its chief investigative correspondent Brian Ross."
everything is ok they are going to run a sneak preview of sports illustrated swimsuit edition. slicing and dicing tends not to bother me when I am fantasizing on how these beautiful nubile young things are going to hook up with me
The big banks face a choice. They can agree to sensible reforms that protect consumers and rein in the excesses of the past decades. Or they can simply decide to screw customers, but do it openly this time, since they have so much market share it almost doesn’t matter what customers think.
Unionization though is not necessarily the "magic fix".
There is no magic fix. Trusting Dimon and Blankfein ain't so smart either. Everybody complains that other Americans don't want to do cheap menial labor. So get a job as a security checker at an airport without union wages and benefits. Show us how it's done.
Greeks may strike any day. Nothing personal, just leverage.
1 currency. There is a difference. Nobody is going to bail out any risk manager. Firms have risk and the exchange members have risk and the exchange has risk. Governments may bail out bad actors, but not risk managers, and the risk managers know this. "Pulling the plug" and "blowing you out" is a survival skill to them just like breathing .
good morning
Fire Department Bills for Basic Services Horrify Residents, Insurance Companies
I would insist that the city council reduce next years budget by any amount billed. Not collected, billed. And not the inflated wishing budget either. It amazes me when public servants miss the point of their existence.
The wheat spot was worse than oil...but you do not remember $4/gal gasoline here and of course worse in other nations? It does get passed through big time. People who actually do their own grocery shopping can tell you that. Any product made with flour or corn inflated big time in '08 just as quickly as gasoline did. Once gasoline is affected anything that requires transportation for delivery of supplies spikes. This leads to higher prices everywhere. It was like the mini-oil embargo years for consumers.
The point is the futures markets were fine and the purpose was to spread the risk out, stabilize pricing so farmers, producers and suppliers could weather swings due to output problems beyond their control. Not so any longer, its a brokers market now and as yogi points out created the mechanism for globalized trading in SIVs. Its worked out so nice for less than 1% of the global population whose losses are socialized and are playing the same games again with the same end result. So, TBTF will have their cake and eat it too, it will be a redux with more zeros behind it.
Fire Department Bills for Basic Services Horrify Residents, Insurance Companies
....our town is trying this - it was just proposed at the last Town Board meeting.........Chief Lewis says ONLY the insurance companies will be billed for a "few" services.......and then tried to minimize the effect.
BRUSSELS (AP) -- Markets somehow expect the European Union to backstop Greece's sagging finances. But with officials denying a bailout is needed, the precise path out of the crisis for the EU's incoming new leadership remains fogged with uncertainty.
The European Union's own government-backed lender said Tuesday that it cannot bail out Greece or any other European country that can't pay its debts.
The European Investment Bank said in a statement that it could "only finance economically viable projects" and that its rules would not allow it help an EU nation cover a budget deficit.
That narrowed the options as Europe's currency union faces an unprecedented crisis as financial markets and the euro currency have tumbled in recent weeks -- with the euro now trading near an eight-month low against the U.S. dollar -- on worries that Greece might need financial rescue to cope with its soaring debt and deficit.
Fire Department Bills for Basic Services Horrify Residents, Insurance Companies
Proves you can go private and have price competition. Rural areas some insurance companies charge houses at burn down rates. Volunteer fire department and distance from fire station over 5 miles was my qualification. RG is right if the cost are not reduced from taxes then they are double dipping.
Then what happens when everyone, including nations, are broke and can't pay up? eh? Hot stock tip, buy This stuff is supposed to be dry and boring, instead its the best soap opera in the history of man.
So you have no problem with your tax dollars supporting private business then?
Huh? No, I don't trust the free market to make airlines safe. Airlines should pay for the safety system and pass the cost to passengers. Who said you had to fly American? If there is competition, with safety equalized, you can find a flight for $4 more with a free blanket. If there is no competition, then there is either a natural or effective monopoly/oligopoly, and profits should be regulated.
If "capitalism" creates a system where only bankers and quarterbacks can afford to fly in luxury private jets, the linemen aren't going to protect the blindside (down in Chino-Latino).
can someone ask him what the view of the situation is from Germany?
The comments on this UK article are interesting. I think it's safe to say that none of the British commentators are in favor of sovereign bailouts. How ironic, since they're likely to be fourth in line.
Thanks BSR, Actually its "let them eat cake" although I recently learned that is false too. But hopefully the point is taken anyway. I need to improve my vocabulary.
chalk it up to just one more place you can't go back to
Considering we were conditioned early in life to develop survival skills (think Green Machine and separation from all we knew and loved), it's almost a miracle we made it this far in one piece.
he Big One is coming soon, bigger than the 2000 dot-com crash and the 2008 subprime credit meltdown combined. A huge market blowout. And as Bloomberg-BusinessWeek predicts: "The results won't be pretty for investors or elected officials."
After the global-debt bomb explodes don't expect a typical bear correction followed by a new bull. Wall Street's toxic pseudo-capitalism is imploding. Be prepared for a massive meltdown. Yes, already the third major bubble-bust of the 21st century, triggered once again by Wall Street's out-of-control Fat Cat Bankers. And it's dead ahead.
Can your family survive in the anarchy after the debt bomb explodes?
America's already descending into economic anarchy. We're all trapped in a historic economic supercycle, a turning point that must bleed through a no-man's land of lawless self-destructive anarchy before a neo-capitalistic world can re-emerge. Investors tell me they "feel" it at a deep level, "know" it's happening. They keep asking: "What's the best investment strategy to prepare now?"
This is no joke, folks. Are you prepared? Or preparing? Will your family survive in a post-apocalyptic world, when anarchy is rampant in America? Look at Washington, Wall Street and Corporate America today. You know it's already begun.
It amazes me when public servants miss the point of their existence.
Which is to put out fires for bankers at $20 million mansions in neighborhoods they can't afford on civil service wages? Volunteer fire departments: Montgomery Burns out there with a bucket. Yeah, right.
In his 2008 best-seller, "Wealth, War and Wisdom," hedge fund manager Barton Biggs, a highly respected Insider in the "Happy Conspiracy," advised rich insiders to expect the "possibility of a breakdown of the civilized infrastructure." His advice: Make tons of money. Buy an isolated farm in the mountains. Protect family against the barbarians: "Your safe haven must be self-sufficient and capable of growing some kind of food ... It should be well-stocked with seed, fertilizer, canned food, wine, medicine, clothes, etc. Think Swiss Family Robinson."
Hey! What sage advice! Everyone should be doing that
“All divisions are profitable, and now UBS needs to work on its image and reputation so that clients’ withdrawals reverse,” said Teresa Nielsen, an analyst at Vontobel Holding AG in Zurich who has a “buy” rating on UBS.
Does anyone here believe that? Where would UBS be without the AIG back-door bailout?
Love this kind of fiction. The reality is that Americans have no stomach for anarchy and an everlasting hope for "the American dream".
Have you been reading Nova's novel? What struck me about this piece is not so much what it said as the fact that this meme is beginning to go mainstream-
furst
That's what Greece said!
It's about perception and panic - not numbers. If little Greece fails, it sets a precedent.
It's "The little grecian that could"
Yay! Another snow day!
poic wrote:
> "The little grecian that could"
More like "The little grecian that will ..."
(Get hosed, that is.)
'No man's life, liberty, or property is safe, while Congress is in session.' - Clemens
I lived in VA for about 7 years. Snow covered Virginia is with no cars running, is a pretty damsel!
I miss snow. It's been 10 years since I've seen falling snow.
a pretty damsel ...
or, 'pretty damn dismal'?
Greece should change their currency to the "gyro". Sounds the same.
Oxtail wrote:
I'll send you a video.
Oh, no, not after the build up you gave us in a look ahead:
Weekly Summary and a Look Ahead
I've been so primed to get the actual data.
Okay, I can cope with this.
dr munch wrote:
Interesting Times wrote:
I always thought that was Delaware.
muddle forward! YouTube - Mr Muddle
EvilHenryPaulson wrote:
On an optimistic note, if all of the Grecian civil servants go on strike it should solve the budgetary problem.
EDIT: Okay, wow EHP. That was actually the Mr. Muddle from my childhood. That is all sorts of awesomeness.
The 80-20 rule in play across the Eurozone.
Look at what happened to the UK when that mouse roared in Reykjavik?
sizE doesn't matter...
The situation in Europe is getting a lot of analysis...when it's all said and done like the AIG deal or the rest of the bailouts in the U.S....who's going to come out way ahead? Some big banks and hedge funds or hedge funds inside big banks?
RE: It Could Be Worse - Iceland
Stephen Colbert:
It Could Be Worse - Iceland
Iceland is a frigid rock in the middle of nowhere that has gone bankrupt and gone gay.
Samdog wrote:
Can be I suppose! I recall sliding down a steep slope, with a foot of snow, in my VW micro bus, leaning on the horn, so cars coming uphill could get out my way! Slip sliding all the way to Campus!
Toyota to recall 200k Priuses in Japan. The bad news just keeps piling up for them.
Just face facts and call Greece; California v0.3.
noob goldberg wrote:
LOL - I was looking at the WaPo pix and quite frankly I have that much snow in my backyard now myself. But some how they didn't consider it newsworthy.
noob goldberg wrote:
the internet is awesome
merchants of fear wrote:
No one was going to come out ahead from the AIG fiasco until they were made whole by the government. So what you're implying is that Greece and the rest of the PIGS will receive a bailout from somewhere.
I'm not yet convinced that such a bailout is politically possible. But I wonder how many traders are making that assumption, and what their reaction might be if it didn't occur?
Thanks to the wonderful Potomac Electric Power Co site, I can see that my old neighborhood in Montgomery County is still without power.
So glad that they know how to do snow here.
Maybe Obama should just shut the government down until Christmas, without pay. Would that help the stock market ?
noob:
Don't worry, they'll get bailed out ... Europeans won't mind paying even more astronomically higher taxes.
Muddle Through might work if the mud wasn't 10 feet deep and over a layer of quicksand
dryfly wrote:
We've had a slow snow year thus-far: only 3 feet. By the end of April 2008 we had received 440 centimetres that winter, or just under 14.5 feet. It was everywhere, and piled in gargantuan heaps because it never got a chance to melt until well into March.
I love this DC snow slide show: Aerial Photos of DC During the 2010 Snow
Samdog wrote:
My rational brain agrees completely, but my intuition says that this is going to be political dynamite within member countries that will delay approval of any bailout until too late.
How important was Vietnam in the scheme of things in the 60's, really?
...and look how it changed our country
The Chinese use them as one of the lower tiers of AROP, presently.
The debt cord is only in need of a small spark~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Samdog wrote:
You know, they might not mind it if it kept their debt levels down, but despite 70%aggregate tax burdens in much of Europe they still manage to accumulate debt. Governments are truly wealth consuming monsters.
short term: the dollar rallies, gold tanks, euro tanks, equities tank, bonds tank, ammo soars.
medium term: the yen crashes, stock markets crash, treasuries default, mobs attack banksters, european union breaks up
long term: dog food looks better and better if you put some away
How embarrassing is it that the "Greatest Nation on Earth (tm)" has to close it's capitol city for 2 days because it snowed a little more than usual.
Maybe Canada should send in some relief politicians since they have nothing better to do.
CBC News - Toronto - Thousands protest Parliament's suspension
Krugman is saying that the case of Spain is not fiscal irresponsibility but there was a huge boom in Spain largely driven by a houising bubble that drove up wages and financed by capital outflows from Germany. Then the bubble burst leaving labor overpriced with unemployment rising and budget deficits from collapsing revenues. But Spain's government did not overspend but what happened to Spain reflects 'the inherent problems with the euro'.
So other regional currencies or an international currency may not work based on how the euro is working? Also, is Germany responsible for Spain's RE bubble by funding their bubble? Didn't other banks fund Spain's RE bubble?
The Spanish Tragedy - Paul Krugman Blog - NYTimes.com
merchants of fear wrote:
Oh. California and Nevada.
Too bad we don't have any regular posters from Germany. I'd really like to know what the mood in Berlin is right now. How much of a political price is Merkel going to have to pay for bailing out the PIIGS? I just can not fathom Germany lettings the PIIGS default and take down the Euro.
merchants of fear wrote:
It is never your fault. It is always beyond your (the victim's) control.
.
Modern Politics 101
DeeperDepression,
So what are the dogs gonna eat?
merchants of fear wrote:
It's a very strong El-Niño, aka Pineapple Express, this year. Hot air from Hawaii is keeping the northwest coast warm + wet, which is forcing the cold arctic air to come down harder on a smaller area on the eastern half of the continent
CRWS Jet Stream Map Menu
If this becomes more of the norm, then sure, get some equipment that can be quickly converted to snow duty (or offer to hire anyone with a pickup that has a plow on the front), have a snow driving education campaign, maybe bring in a mandatory snow tire bylaw, standard post-snowfall street parking procedures so streets can be plowed, etc...
If it's once every 10 years, the best solution is probably just to take it easy for a couple of days where they just worry about emergency stuff
Oxtail wrote:
Werner
EvilHenryPaulson wrote:
This strong El Niño? : YouTube - El Nino
Ohhh, nice. Next time he's on, can someone ask him what the view of the situation is from Germany?
yagij,
I was reading that 2nd homes and vacation homes were very popular in Spain for middle-class and upper-class Europeans...so German banks financed & funded those purchases...
EvilHenryPaulson wrote:
Billions spent on terrorism, and clearly not enough on emergency snow removal. The terrorists have won (in partnership with snow).
Oxtail wrote:
Hahahahahahahahaha... Oxtail must have come after the Werner Show.
Oxtail wrote:
Haven't heard from him in a long time. I suspect he's still around as an observer, I would like to think my stunning forecast of a downturn in Germany left an impression on him. He was a fun poster
merchants of fear wrote:
Right. Follow the Euros. Germany doesn't want to bail out its debt holes, but if it doesn't, its banks could get creamed.
.
Uh oh...
Last one out turn off the lights......400 jobs also
LAS VEGAS -- The Ritz-Carlton Lake Las Vegas will close May 2,
An employee said notifications were sent out Monday morning and a hotel official confirmed the closing a few hours later.
The resort, which opened in 2003, is among the top luxury destinations in southern Nevada and recently won the AAA Five Diamond award. Despite the accolades, the Lake Las Vegas area fell on hard times during the recession. Last year, the three golf courses within the resort were closed or went bankrupt.
USA Today said the move will put nearly 400 employees out of work.
The 348-room resort -- 17 miles away from the Las Vegas Strip -- is owned by Village Hospitality, an arm of Deutsche Bank, according to USA Today.
"They have decided to cease funding the hotel," Ritz-Carlton spokeswoman Vivian Deuschl said. "We reluctantly agreed to close the hotel." Deuschl could not say how much money the resort is losing, USA Today reported.
I happened to be looking at GAO site today.
This Report on TARP released a couple days ago
The Federal Reserve created TALF under Section 13(3) of the Federal Reserve Act, which permits the Federal Reserve to authorize a Federal Reserve Bank to lend to nondepository institutions in “unusual and exigent circumstances.” The Federal Reserve viewed creation of TALF as part of its monetary policy activities because, having already reduced the federal funds target rate to close to zero, it needed additional mechanisms, like TALF, to provide liquidity directly to borrowers and investors in key credit markets. GAO is prohibited by statute from auditing deliberations, decisions, or actions by the Federal Reserve or any Federal Reserve bank
TALF is monetary policy? Bullshit!
"Haven't heard from him in a long time. I suspect he's still around as an observer, I would like to think my stunning forecast of a downturn in Germany left an impression on him. He was a fun poster"
Werner so shocked how prescient we all were that he was left speechless.
YLSP wrote:
You didn't get the memo?
"Housing is just 6% of the economy"
GAO was tracing the TARP money into TALF, sorry here's more:
TALF may present risks beyond the potential risks to TARP, such as the risk that FRBNY might fail to identify material noncompliance with program requirements by TALF participants. Because the Federal Reserve views TALF as a monetary policy tool, however, statutory limitations on GAO's authority prohibited GAO from auditing FRBNY's role in administering TALF. Treasury has not fully documented its rationale, as part of its decision-making processes, for reaching final decisions related to the risks of TALF--including decisions involving other agencies. For example, the outcomes of Treasury's internal analysis of the amount of equity that TALF borrowers should hold in TALF ABS collateral, along with other TALF program terms, sometimes differed from FRBNY's. However, there was no clear documentation or explanation of how the discrepancies were resolved or how final decisions were made with FRBNY.
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
That made me think of det[onation] cord. I haven't thought about det cord in a long time.
I had read that one of Spain's largest banks has a lot of bad RE loan exposure also...
DeeperDepression,
So what are the dogs gonna eat?
Why all of us i guess
mp wrote:
Avoided the Mission Impossible movies, didn't you?
.
Or is "det cord" the cord used to wire explosives to detonation switches?
nah...we'll hafta eat the dogs...
If this becomes more of the norm, then sure, get some equipment that can be quickly converted to snow duty (or offer to hire anyone with a pickup that has a plow on the front), have a snow driving education campaign, maybe bring in a mandatory snow tire bylaw, standard post-snowfall street parking procedures so streets can be plowed, etc...
If it's once every 10 years, the best solution is probably just to take it easy for a couple of days where they just worry about emergency stuff
having lived in Vermont during my formative years, this lack of can do around snow removal is just such a joke. I had to dig my car out every day so I could drive it to High School 45 minutes in a white out..what a bunch of BS
yagij wrote:
They'd rather bail out THEIR banks rather than bail out the PIGS.
poic wrote:
I'm hoping his American employer, presumably in auto parts, around Bavaria didn't lay him off or put him on short time. I actually think a big part of it was the change in commenting systems acting as a small barrier and he just passively didn't want to hear "I told you so" from everyone re: decoupling, I like to think he still reads the comments though.
They'd rather bail out THEIR banks rather than bail out the PIGS.
and then what will THEIR BANKS invest in ?
Greece's largest union is about to strike? Timing may be bad.
yagij wrote:
Det cord is C4 explosive, but comes in "cable" form, about 1/4 inch in diameter. Comes on spools.
You can use it by itself for boobytraps, etc., or you can use it to link bricks of C4, like if you're blowing a bridge and have several different charges.
You don't want to know any more, I'm sure.
dryfly wrote:
Germany does not bailout, Germany does not bribe, Germany is open to workers across Europe, Germany loves France
DeeperDepression wrote:
If they are anything like our banks - nuthin'... at least not for awhile.
DeeperDepression wrote:
I think I just left something in the toilet that Deutschebank/Commerzbank/Hypo/Landesbanks/etc wanted to invest in (edit: don't call me to share in the spoils, they apologetically full with bad shipping loans)
EvilHenryPaulson wrote:
All hail the Fatherland!
.
EvilHenryPaulson wrote:
Oh wow. +1 :rimshot:
So if a supposedly fically responsibe govt. can get in trouble from an internationally financed boom/bust...then any nation can be taken out with risky capital inflows in our global economy...and financially networked 'system'...
I'm still laughing my ass off over "Germany loves France"... too funny.
With that 'adieu'.
This take on Google's commercial last night is epic...
Is D.C. really going get another 10-20" of federal government suppression tomorrow?
So if a supposedly fically responsibe govt. can get in trouble from an internationally financed boom/bust
Can you name a fiscally responsible government?......
A potential 'independent' third party movement of disaffected, disgruntled, and disgusted voters has already been subverted and hijacked by a trojan horse.
It really is hopeless...
Which is why we need to vote Palin in '012!
DeeperDepression,
I think Krugman was saying that Spain was running a budget surplus with low debts relative to GDP even on the eve of their 'crisis' and thus were fiscally responsible...
YLSP wrote:
This made me really LOL.
But Palin might be 'more of the same' especially on war over-spending...thus a trojan horse...unfortunately...
Note: they weren't independent.
Consider that Palin praised, "Common sense conservative, Scott Brown" during her tea party speech. Give him about 10 votes before they start cursing that RINO...
All I saw out of the tea party convention is that they were just about as anti-Obama as the GOP... well even moreso... what a coup for the GOP that they can use the teaparty as some type of attack arm...
For Dawg...
Washington, District of Columbia (20001) Conditions & Forecast : Weather Underground
.
I think Krugman was saying that Spain was running a budget surplus with low debts relative to GDP even on the eve of their 'crisis' and thus were fiscally responsible...
then the crisis was "created"?
"A potential 'independent' third party movement of disaffected, disgruntled, and disgusted voters has already been subverted and hijacked by a trojan horse."
you betcha!!
Palin already has the secret plans to take down Somalia, Sudan, and other places that are harboring Al Qaeda...
hijacked by a trojan horse.
we need a good horse thief
"YLSP (profile) wrote on Mon, 2/8/2010 - 10:38 pm
reply ignore user
Palin already has the secret plans to take down Somalia, Sudan, and other places that are harboring Al Qaeda..."
I saw them on her palm
Oh, I firmly believe it will be a whole lot more of the same.
No one's going to try and stop the runaway train so might as well shovel more coal into the furnace.
YLSP,
Yeah...the so-called 'tea party' is already painting itself into a rigid 'conservative' corner...this is good for the two-party tango...anti-bailout sentiment is on both sides of the public political divide I think...so a good starting point for a wider political movement...
crisis was 'created'
Probably a lot of evidence for major boom/bust credit cycles being created repeatedly by political/economic policies...but a lot of social resistance for this 'theory'...
dryfly wrote:
FedGov would never dare close for an entire week for fear of no one noticing.
poic,
What's Palin's stance on attacking Iran?
FedGov would never dare close for an entire week for fear of no one noticing.
the real reason FEDGOV is closed is they are partying in N'AWlins
For YLSP also...what's Palin's position for attacking Iran?
yagij wrote:
IIRC, det cord is basically a really long straw full of PETN with a propogation rate >20,000 ft/sec...
Not sure...because I didn't catch the tea party send off.
what's Palin's position for attacking Iran?
Talking point #1: push the red button
merchants of fear wrote:
Missionary.
energyecon wrote:
PETN trace + the airport chemical scanner = not fun
Timeline: now or never?
DeeperDepression wrote:
Yeah right. Next you'll be telling me they've got a white mayor down there and Massachusetts has a republican senator.
broward wrote:
)
Missionary
Palin strikes me as more a reverse cowgirl type (apologies to BSR
Are these people being charged as 'racists' or acting like racists in the tea party for real?
Dawg,the demographics im N'awlins changed drastically after Katrina.
Koito Plunges on 150,000 Airbus, Boeing Seat Repairs (Update2) - Bloomberg.com
Feb. 9 (Bloomberg) -- Koito Industries Ltd., the Japanese supplier of seats used in Airbus SAS and Boeing Co. planes, plunged a record 33 percent after saying it will repair about 150,000 seats because of falsified safety data.
The company fell by its 80 yen daily limit to 159 yen at 10:23 a.m. in Tokyo. It was the biggest intraday decline since the stock began trading in March 1988. Parent Koito Manufacturing Co., a Toyota Motor Corp. affiliate, fell as much as 13 percent, the most in more than 15 months.
...
The seats to be fixed are in planes operated by 32 airlines in countries including the U.S., China, Japan and Singapore. Koito plans to make all of the repairs, which predominantly affects Boeing and Airbus aircraft this year.
I don't know; I only watched 10-15 minutes of her speech.
I did find it funny that Teaparty Convention got top billing over whatever the DNC was doing. To be honest I can relate more to teaparty folk, than RNC or DNC politicos; as they appear to be earnest people... they just need to dump Palin as their speaker and move more "independent". But I don't think they really or.
Palin strikes me more of a "I have a headache" type...
ResistanceIsFeudal wrote:
Possibly but it doesn't carry religious connotations.
EHP,
Never worked with it myself, though did get through an underground mine safety course where we shot a round at the mine face - all electrical setup, drilled the shot using a compressed air jackleg and all that - "fire in the hole!" Shock wave through the ground tickles your toes first then the compression wave comes out of the adit... thing is about working underground is that everything has to work right or you die.
Palin strikes me more of a "I have a headache" type...
She is just the warmup act for the next Hitler wannabee
energyecon
What government department or agency do you specifically think should be given bunker cave priority then?
I don't think the teaparty folk came off as racists, just "right of the mainstream GOP". I suppose that Obama is black and all I heard them do is bash Obama for most of the night, it might be construed as "racist" but I think it was more just rabidly anti-Democrat.
I saw the WND guy speak and he also came off as a bit of a loon... it sounded like some of the teaparty folk were saying Obama isn't a citizen and is an illegitimate President.
poic wrote:
Palm reading will soon replace economic forecasting and models.
JimPortlandOR wrote:
I replaced my Palm with an iPhone.
Does that count?
I nominate Steve Forbes
EvilHenryPaulson wrote:
YouTube - Dr. Strangelove talks to the War Room
Expect a move in the stock market 2/10... Bernanke is going to speak to Congress about how to remove some of the liquidity the Fed introduced...
Unwinding Emergency Federal Reserve Liquidity Programs and Implications for Economic Recovery
You know what I love about Canada, it's always got a small town feel to it in some way
a local hot dog stand has been been one of the big news stories (Japadog, good value btw)
I'm listening to some of the Volker Rule hearing...
I don't know who is talking to him, but some Senator said something like,
Southern Senator: "In this last crises... we didn't have any proprietary trader lose money."
Volker: "In this last crises? I recall at the beginning... a very large loss of a French bank from a single loan trader that cost hundreds of millions of dollars."
Senator: "In the United States of America, there was not a single loss..."
Volker: "I'd have to go and look back at the trading I do know that some companies suffered plenty of losses in their trading desk" .
Senator: "I'm just going to say that is a fact unless someone tells me any different."
And then the Treasury witness gets in about how banks took losses in their proprietary trading and other losses...
Oh, I recognize the voice... LINDSAY GRAHAM!
EvilHenryPaulson wrote:
Yeah, it's very fast. I remember det cord was a really dark green and, at night, it was almost impossible to tell the difference between it and powder fuse, which was black, as I recall. I hope they fixed that problem.
mp wrote:
thanks for the wry grin... yes, likewise I hope that has been resolved...
I stand corrected, it is Senator Corker (looking at the video...)
Is this a paid holiday?
Rob Dawg wrote:
No really. CA had a problem in good times too.
YLSP wrote:
It's a big problem now that Edward Kennedy is dead.
What about the rest of the PIIGS? I can smell that systemic risk from here.
Euro Rallies, Metals Gain on Optimism Europe Will Help Greece - Bloomberg.com
Blackhalo wrote:
Pa-per.
Must.. print...
more...
{huff} {puff} {huff} {puff}
pa... per.
Germany's Choice | STRATFOR
Contagion risk has been proven! Yay!
Well, at least as far as a couple of IMF Monetary and Cap Markets guys reckon. Which smacks somewhat of the highly paid studying the blindingly obvious, but there ya go.
Anatomy of distress: New insight on the probability of bank turmoil | vox - Research-based policy analysis and commentary from leading economists
Get the feeling they might be caught without a good answer to an immediate and time-bound policy or investment question, like "what is the interbank counterparty risk of the past 3 months of sovereign credit movements, by instrument, scale, and institutional domicile?"
C
Who watched Vinsanity tonight? One of the greatest hoops performances I've ever seen.
Probability of bank turmoil, you say? Maybe we should alert somebody.
I don't quite understand Krugman's insistence that Spain is fine and it's all the Euro's fault. That's like bragging about Arizona's budget surplus in 2006 and complaining that they're only in trouble now because they can't print their own currency.
And his latest post is about how tiny Greece's economy is and how a default would not be a big deal. It's like he has no idea that the big concern is that it's going to destroy the Euro and wreck a whole mess of European banks.
The guy has a Nobel and his own column at the NYT. Many people were even calling for him to be Treasury Sec or some other high position. And yet it feels like there are tons of random people on this blog who have a much better grasp of what's going on in Europe than he does...
Nahh, data's not conclusive. Best wait until Q1 is in before acting. Wouldn't want to appear rash.
C
I really object to the earlier statements about China using money as a "cold war tactic".
The US owes $2 trillion to the Chinese. The Fed prints money; the Chinese stay pegged to the dollar. Fat Americans consume the surplus of Chinese labor, then fat Americans blame the victim for our debt.
I've posted about China's neglect of civil liberties but to argue that they should let us defraud them with currency manipulation is absurd.
... And yet another FREE Public Service, brought to you, by the bloggers of CR:
Re1: Krugman Speaks Monday August 13, 2007: Financial chaos spreads worldwide
"The scariest thing about liquidity crises, said Krugman, is that it is very hard for policy makers to do anything about them. Central banks can respond by cutting interest rates or lending money to banks that are short of cash
“But when liquidity dries up, the normal tools of policy lose much of their effectiveness,” said Krugman. “Reducing the cost of money doesn’t do much for borrowers if nobody is willing to make loans. Ensuring that banks have plenty of cash doesn’t do much if the cash stays in the banks’ vaults.”"
Re2: Krugman Speaks Again, November 23, 2007 : OP-ED COLUMNIST; Banks Gone Wild - NY Times
“What were they smoking?” asks the cover of the current issue of Fortune magazine.
part of the answer lies in what hasn’t happened to the men on that Fortune cover — namely, they haven’t been forced to give back any of the huge paychecks they received before the folly of their decisions became apparent.
Oxtail wrote:
Well, I'm pretty sure if they could unilaterally devalue the dollar...
1 currency now -yogi wrote:
The accumulation of that $2 trillion, WAS currency manipulation. I'd tend to think that after the first trillion they have pretty much abdicated any room for complaint. He who lives by the peg...
We got inexpensive factory-made products, they got worthless IOU's. Who got taken?
More good news - up is good, right?
iTraxx Europe 95 Spread 3.90%
iTraxx Europe Crossover 497 Spread 1.03%
iTraxx Europe HiVol 137 Spread 2.07%
iTraxx Europe Senior Financials 106 Spread 3.04%
Sooo, lemme see here, iTraxx Main credit risk is blowing wider, 'bout 8 bps since ?Friday, and snr financials are too, slightly faster. I don't have the chart on hand but a danger zone (pre-LEH, or BSC at the brink) was when Main less Snr Fins is around -10bps. Okaaay.
But it's slow. Compared with some Latin or Eastern Yerp maneuvers, this is just getting going - regionwide.
(Are we there yet? Are we there yet? say the doomer kids in the back...
Dammit, quieten down back there. We're getting there, promise!)
C
1 currency now -yogi wrote:
Ah, that's not the argument. We're not complaining about them not letting us defraud them; we're complaining that we gave them a weapon, taught them how to use it, and then they realize they can use it on us. Damn ingrates.
1 currency now -yogi wrote:
The dollar was also artificially inflated relative to the Yuan, resulting in an awful lot of US industry moving to China, and costing the US a somewhat disproportionate level of job and industry loss. Had China diversified their holdings to Yen and Euro, it might not have been quite so painful for US labor, and they might not be quite so over the barrel, with regard to dollar devaluation.
One for CR, when the left coast wakes up:
Superbowl team: online finance's best | New Rules of Investing
C
Just a little comment to those who always make snide comments about how DC people can't handle snow. Yes, that IS true. But keep in mind that WITHOUT snow, The DC region has the second worst traffic congestion in the nation. So Imagine LA, put a slippery oil slick on every road, and then remove a ~1/2 lane from the interstates and get rid of the merge lanes. It would be a nightmare EVEN IF everybody knew how to drive in it.
This case is like a law school exam:
Holders of Billions in Czar Bonds Seek Kremlin’s Paris Property - Bloomberg.com
It is always thus. Lending to the profligate does not make them happy. The result is usually a bitter debtor, blaming his lender for the injustice of his interest payments.
I'm with you oxtail. Remember those economists back around 2004-5 who were saying that Increasing levels of consumer debt despite stagnating wages were OK because the balance sheets were fine? How'd THAT work out?
"It's like he has no idea that the big concern is that it's going to destroy the Euro and wreck a whole mess of European banks."
There are consequences and then there are CONSEQUENCES. How many times Greece has been in trouble aka former military dictatorship (in the seventies)? Many friggin times, nothing new. Euro is not going to be destroyed because the alternative offers no benefits, especially when all the DEBTS are now in euros.
Reissue your own currency and possibly triple your debts in real terms, not to mention what it will do to the trading with European partners. Would California be better off if they issued their own currency because they are now bankrupt? Not likely because their debts are in dollars. You leave monetary union ONLY if you think you can do better.
The same with Spain, their banks are especially battle hardened veterans in these kinds of times, they know how to survive in very tough high inflation/interest rates/unemployment combo environment. It was actually a SPANISH bank that bailed out one bank in Holland recently.
Italy is doing quite OK in the industrialized northern part, southern part has always been poor and in trouble every since the Fall of Rome. They also "know the drill" but Americans and Brits do not. UK especially is a sitting duck for speculators with very bad budget deficit and with heavy debt burden.
Absolutely, LBD. Currency printing doesn't fool anyone anymore. Is Zimbabwe better off than Greece?
End the Fed.
1 currency now -yogi wrote:
Then why are T-Bills interest rates so low, compared to historic levels?
Because the Fed and its insider prime dealers are buying.
(Anyone who still believes in the Fed is a fool. I meant no intelligent person paying attention is fooled, anymore.)
END THE FED
IntercontinentalExchange, Inc. - ICE CDS Clearing Reaches $5 Trillion on a Global Basis; ICE Clear Europe Crosses euro 1 Trillion
Not to worry, they have a reserve fund of a couple of billion to cover any problems. That's right, billion with a "b". The big banks own this too big to fail bank, opened in March under the auspices of the NYFed.
I told you so...
Who sold and cleared CDS on Spain, Greece and Portugal?
Why are the central bankers of the world meeting in secret?
End the friggin Fed, already.
Oooh, ooh, I know this one ... it's, ummm, damn G-dm, something, Godworksinmen, no... Maingold, no.. Can I buy a vowel?
C
interest rates are usually at their lowest at the end of the credit cycle. As capitalist garner ever greater amounts of promises, they have to reinvest them back into the same paper. Exactly what happened just before the John Law bubble blew out.
I am the ONLY customer at the 13 Coins restaurant.
Holy cow.
Coins! Gold Coins Capital LLP!
No?
C
Nickels were recently worth more melted.
The idea that the Fed can stimulate employment by handing cheap credit to bankers is a sick joke. We got fooled again. Who could have imagined.
Good question.
the premier post-bar-closing restaurant in downtown Seattle.
Nobody else.
Wow. Congratulate me. Counter. I drank everybody in the entire city under the table! Or maybe I just outlasted them financially. Ho ho!
Because the Fed and its insider prime dealers are buying.
Then why does that appear to "fool" some of the people most of the time?
I don't understand much about this stuff. It seems the fed having to backstop an auction is kind of coprophagous, and would repulse existing holders of these instruments.
The paper has to go somewhere. Think of it as supply and demand. Tons of paper building up against a shrinking supply of willing borrowers. Price of paper (interet rate) collapses, at least until faith in the paper fails.
Yes, China is angry, and grumbling about selling weapons to N. Korea, Venezuela, Cuba, et al. The US response: well, just let us cheat you with currency games. You need us to "buy" your factory goods.
As other posters mentioned above, the currency games take two to tango. The incomplete sterilization of all that RMB sloshing around the economy has got to be a headache in itself. I think they're about to discover there is no graceful way to deflate such asset bubbles.
Meanwhile, they're taking it out on the folks at home as well. The following story about dissident crackdowns is getting a lot of coverage in HK since a bunch of reporters from HK were roughed up today at the sentencing.
China jails Sichuan quake activist Tan Zuoren for subversion - Times Online
Meanwhile the SCMP reports that an elite school to train super journalists for the state owned media will attempt "world class communications and image building".
Of course the dealer shares some blame with the junkie. The fatass US consumer consumes, the Chinese elite and international financiers get rich, and the sweatshop slaves suffer. China will have to eat some of our inflation, and if there's justice their leaders will get the same fair trials as the dissenters.
But I don't buy the argument that a sucker deserves to be taken advantage of. What's that end game?
"The accumulation of that $2 trillion, WAS currency manipulation. I'd tend to think that after the first trillion they have pretty much abdicated any room for complaint. He who lives by the peg."
China is already about 4500-4800 billion dollar economy, will be second biggest economy soon, bypassing Japan. Loans and exports to USA are both pretty much irrelevant to them already, few hundred billion dollars per year. More like a hobby now.
Even if USA would disappear from the map, it would only be temporarily nuisance for Chinese, lasting about few years with their current growth rate. They do have a quite nice dollar reserve that they can use to buy strategic resources (from all around the globe).
GDP Index in real terms (baseline 1952):
1990: 1855
1995: 5849
2000: 8947
2003: 13582
2005: 18387
2007: 24662
2008: 31404
2009/1-9: 21782. (corrected, 7.7 percent growth expected last year).
China is growing 10 percent almost every year. Internal demand there just is so huge with four+ times the population of USA. Of course there will be problems sooner or later because of lack of democracy with one party rule (two-parties-turned-into-one rule is so much better in the USA, right?) but that will be another story.
We'll be lucky if we don't get a full-blown hot war. Few people understand that yet, though.
Rhythms that keep their secrets
will unfold behind the clouds
and there upon the Rainbow
is the Answer to our Soon-To-Be-Ending Story.
It would surprise me if welching on the IOU's was part and parcel of any master plan. I think our deficit spending and debt driven consumption mentality had its own dynamic. While it was certainly enabled by the Chinese, but there were plenty of wise heads who said, and continue to say, that the debt can be serviced, higher value added is found in tech, and profits are to be enjoyed by design and marketing-- the whole platform company chimera.
Meanwhile, barring a trade war, the global wage arbitrage box will remain open. China's short circuiting of exchange rate movement is hobbling the development of lesser (than she) developed countries (and states of the union, one might add).
I watched a documentary about Chinese parents of quake victims buried in their school. The contrived care to avoid criticizing the Party was sickeningly obvious. Without cheap uncensored public access to the internet China (and Russia) will never be attractive to live in.
Without cheap uncensored public access to the internet China (and Russia) will never be attractive to live in
The idiom here could be:
井底之蛙
Jing Di Zhi Wa
A frog at the bottom of a well, whose only vision of the world is the tiny circle of light above.
The common Chinese view of the outside world is fraught with "contradictions", and stoked with very potent jingoism.
"I drank everybody in the entire city under the table! Or maybe I just outlasted them financially. Ho ho! "
Careful there, bartender might soon come and say, "maybe it is time to go home, sir".
1 currency now -yogi wrote:
My jaw is on the floor, my breath is taken away. Thank you yogi for posting this.
We are sooooo screwed.
The knee-jerks who blindly oppose the welfare state, public education, minimum wage, maximum work-week...can't see past their fat stomachs.
Factories for mass production are only as valuable as what the masses can afford to pay for the products. "We" could use the armies of the unemployed to service a feudal elite. Will they bother to fight off the invaders or just slaughter the elite? CR posted a quote that Greece is playing a game of chicken. Capital and labor, students and riot police, draft-dodgers, mutineers, courts-martial, are forever engaged in games of chicken. Economics is game theory.
The Canadian Press: European stocks up cautiously on hopes for Greece
To preempt regulation, the TooBigs set up this bad bank last year to clear toxic CDS.
The 3-card monte game is "self-regulated", in a big casino. The NYFed said 'no problem, we're on top of the risk.' I called them in April to inquire about reserve requirements. "Oh, that's not public information".
"ICE Trust." Meltdown coming, trust me.
From Trichet To Greece's Rescue? - Forbes.com
> LONDON -- Europe was all abuzz with expectations for a European Union-led rescue attempt of Greece, following news on Tuesday that European Central Bank President Jean Claude Trichet was set to leave a meeting with the Reserve Bank of Australia in Sydney a day early to attend an informal gathering of E.U. leaders on Thursday.
Though the subject of the meeting is not yet known, market watchers speculated that officials would be exploring solutions to Greece's debt problems.
where is noob? OPEC must love this. snark/ Say, can the FED Reserve also play in commodities and buy up international producers..oh wait...
REPEAL THE FREAKSHOW CFMA ALREADY! The ICE CDSs are also related to the CFMA that yogi posted.
China Becomes Oil ETF’s No. 4 Holder, Buys SPDR Gold (Update1) - Bloomberg.com
Feb. 9 (Bloomberg) -- China Investment Corp.,the nation’s sovereign wealth fund, invested for the first time in the U.S. Oil Fund, an exchange-traded crude-futures fund, joining Morgan Stanley & Co. and Goldman Sachs Group among the top holders.
China Investment became the fourth-largest holder in the Oil Fund by buying 2 million shares, equal to 3.48 percent of the outstanding units, with a value of $78.6 million, according to a Securities and Exchange Commission 13-F filing posted on Feb. 5. It also took a 1.45 million share stake, or 0.4 percent of the total, in the SPDR Gold Trust worth $155.6 million.
Chinese miners and oil companies have bought up zinc mines in Australia, oil reserves in Nigeria, and gold deposits in the Philippines to feed the country’s demand for raw materials to fuel its economic growth. The $300 billion sovereign wealth fund pumped about $10 billion into commodity-related concerns in the second half of 2009.
“It looks like they are aware of their market power in commodity markets and want to hedge against the impact their buying has on commodity prices,” said Timothy Condon, chief Asian economist with ING Groep NV in Singapore. “I think the reserves, via the CIC, will be used to hedge the risk of a cutoff of key raw material supplies by buying stakes in commodity producers.”
CIC’s investments through the SPDR Gold Trust are equivalent to 145,000 ounces of bullion, or about 0.4 percent of the 33.9 million ounces China’s government maintains, based on data from the International Monetary Fund.
"So muddle through might work."
right. we aren't talking about UK or Japan, here. not yet.
1 currency now -yogi wrote:
Who ends up holding that astronomically big bag of flaming trillions in poo then? Shall we just call it 'waste' that qualifies for a superfund cleanup? (TARP on steroids then?)
Leveraged only 80-1. Reduced risk... BWAAAHHHAHHH.
FWIW: U.K. Bond Sale Highlights Differences With Greece - WSJ.com
yogi...I saw that and highlighted that part to my poor email friends I rant to. Without the changes made in the CFMA this market couldn't have even existed. I want to throw Uncle Phil a party.
and yogi...all those who don't think commodities are not manipulated needs to read the article linked above. If people believe their investments in the ETF sector is wise then check out the majority holders, you're a little ant in a universe of smart amoral scumbags who will squeeze every last cent from the serfs in these opaque markets through manipulation of commodities. Bend over.
I take a GIANT issue with a sovereign taking physical ownership of international producers AND playing in the ETF/futures commodities sector. No rules, just chaos and we are sooooo screwed.
broward wrote:
"Our stress-tested risk management platform, including a complete segregation and portability framework......"
What could possibly go wrong?
justaskin wrote:
How much worse?
• A strike at a South American mine owned by China and the owners bring in their own security forces to establish order. That's how much worse.
• As part of a humanitarian effort China agrees to build and operate a deep water port on the west coast of Mexico.
that's how much worse. I'm only scratching the surface.
From: Greece: Bear or Lehman? | Herald Sun
Yeah, I called ICE Trust last year too. Friendly enough. They said they could withstand the default of any large counterparty (seller). What if 2 go down?...[Presumably, their platforms say that could never happen]
Rob Dawg wrote:
As a resident of the Middle East, we all just can't wait for the big "surprise" Iran is supposed to announce on 2.11. We've also noticed the commitment to build up an arms race in Saudi as well.
Which is worse - bankers or terrorists wrote:
With American equipment, fighter aircraft, tanks, etc.????
Best article I've read on PIIGS sovereign default: {watch out for the red hat - I just posted this above}
Greece: Bear or Lehman? | Herald Sun
Drooling insurers are ugly.
Insurers Test Market as Obama Opens Annuity Door for 401(k)s - Bloomberg.com
...
Annual fees for guarantees in 401(k)s can be 95 basis points or more above the retirement plan’s investment-management fees, she said. A basis point is 0.01 percentage point.
“Those fees may reduce account values by 7 percent to 9 percent over 10 years,” said Drew Denning, vice president of retirement and investor services
...
“The portability of these contracts at this juncture is minimal between insurers,” Carl said. “You’re essentially locked into the program you choose -- or are defaulted into.”
That’s because an insurer calculates its annuity payments based in part on the life expectancy of a pool of individuals holding such contracts, which makes it harder to switch from one insurer to another, Carl said.
Solvency of the offering company is another impediment, said Robert Toth, an attorney who specializes in retirement plan products and services.
“How do you make a decision that the insurance company will still be here 30 years from now?” said Toth, who is based in Fort Wayne, Indiana. “Employers fear making that choice and being responsible.”
.....
Nanoo-Nanoo wrote:
It's interesting that the Chinese have taken positions in Motorola, Coke, etc. The Japanese preferred golf courses. But there was and is no talk of manipulation. But if the Chinese buy oil or zinc, then they are manipulating the market? To me, those investments are promoting research into alternative energy development and substitutes for zinc (like plastic). It will be interesting to see what China does with crude oil delivered at Cushing, Oklahoma.
The key to speculative trades like oil or CDSs is adequate margins, not who owns them.
The Chinese own dollars and want to spend them, what should we tell them? I don't think we need an approved investments list or require 100% margins.
Nanoo-Nanoo wrote:
No, Saudi wants to manufacture its own arms (comforting thought). This was in the Saudi Gazette this weekend; I'm surprised it didn't show up in the west. Can't find the link, will work on that.
Also, saw something a week ago that the US also will be supporting/advising on an expansion of the Saudi military by about 30,000 Saudi men. That was about a week ago, will also work on that link.
traderwalt wrote:
The fat lady hasn't sung in China yet. Wait until the bubble blows up there. Webster's dictionary will start spelling DEFLATION in all caps.
RE: China and the U.S.
"Money as a weapons system"
---What could go wrong?
I suspect China will blow off a hand while trying to assemble a financial terror bomb. Their $2t won't help when social pressures at home disrupt the export machine.
Right before the NY open the barbarous takes a spike up.
American Airlines quietly announced last week that it would eliminate free blankets in coach and sell an $8 packet that includes a pillow and blanket starting May 1.
Passengers Must Pay for Blankets on American - In Transit Blog - NYTimes.com
---Let the screwing continue!
traderwalt, you don't see a conflict of interest in a sovereign (or super mega international brokerage) holding physical, owning the producers AND trading in an opaque/closed futures market as a conflict of interest?
We're taking about trading and yes margins; that will directly benefit physical holdings...is that not anti-trust? Regarding CDSs the few little b's to cover the Ts as yogi rightly points out is laughable.
And like I said, who ultimately will be saddled with those big flaming piles WHEN that implodes? Do the broker/bankers have THAT much in capital reserves. If they do then they should buy land and proclaim themselves an independent nation.
edit: Oh wait...the Bahama's already serve that purpose...I forgot.
The Chinese took the Plaza Accord as an object lesson in how not to engage in multilateral agreements to revalue.
Looks like they'll make their own mistakes, their way.
Rob Dawg wrote:
You miss my point.....what's the unknown unknown in a post MAD world? I don't know the answer.
Christ was right. It is better to give than to receive.
Nanoo, let me venture to say that it is precisely those exposed to risk on physical holdings (short futures) or future deliveries (long futures) who need to hedge.
The fact that a futures contract is a certain grade delivered at a certain time to a certain place is just to standardize the contract so that all that remains is price. There will be premiums or discounts applied to figure what physical delivery will be priced at, for those longs who stand for delivery.
Generally the hedge funds get their head handed to them when they attempt to do that, so to the best of my knowledge they seldom do.
dum luk wrote:
James Monroe had other ideas. And just as China had her tribute from surrounding states, I think they'd avoid our backyard unless they intend direct provocation.
NN,in the years I have been trading on exchanges, many trading firms have been liquidated. Exchanges have policies for trading entities that don't keep positions adequately margined. Positions are liquidated before the money runs out, with only a few exceptions. 25 years ago on firm blew up on the Comex and didn't have adequate capital to pay its customers. IIRC, the exchange assessed its members according to the percentage of the business each firm did on the exchange. No customers lost any money. Remember that futures trading is a zero sum game. The money is still there someplace.
That's called capitalism. I loved People Express no frills NY to Miami for $59. If there is competition, consumers should pay for what they consume. There are no free blankets.
Safety shouldn't be compromised, and monopolies must be busted. You could hire non-union airport checkers at below minimum wage. More planes will explode, however.
I still need to see spx 1030, but in the mean time: http://www.morpheustrading.com/charts/2010/100209TLT.gif
We are lucky we get to pay for TSA twice.
Once with taxes and once with a "9/11 security fee".
That isn't capitalism, is it?
Is the TSA unionized?
......this damned AGW is a bit**!
.....Good Morning........
Traderwalt wrote:
Wrong. Take ICE Trust, above. $240 billion open interest secured by $3 billion. Cascading defaults will crash the system like in '32, once the last backdoor bailout card is played. Meanwhile the bankers eat their bonus cake.
......the two go hand in hand? Give me a break, yogi.......when are you going to see the rose-pattern painted on the walls?
No, the $8 blanket you complained about is capitalism. I like the choice. Transportation safety is socialism. Fly Air Somalia if you don't want taxes. I'm sure the blanket is gratis.
Bald headed guy one just said Volker was antediluvian in his views. The smarmy outlook on how very important they all are and how little everyone else is is disappointing. cnbc
From Employers that cut 401(k) match will reinstate them in 2010 - Feb. 8, 2010
tg wrote:
and will we muddle through or will we be sliced and diced like a bundle of worthless mortgages prior to being locked up and put out of sight?
YouTube - Papillon -Welcome to Devil's Island
So price discovery is set by those who take delivery but futures (and shorts) can and do affect market price. I laughed my ass off in '08 when someone didn't get a memo...got squeezed big in oil and had to sell fast...in a span on one hour there was a perfect inverted V. Sell or take delivery...I would have loved to see those leaky oil barrels sitting in front of some pretty offices in NYC.
I firmly believe after '08 and the volatility over such a brief period of time was a perfect demonstration of how institutional traders can not only affect end product pricing but squeeze the producer/supplier contracts.
Its obvious and now we have a sovereign nation getting into the game with exceptionally large dollar holdings. Lets see how that works out for J6P truck driver buying diesel and just who profits by how much. We already know that answer to that question.
The CFMA has proven itself to be destructive and highly flawed after a mere 10 years. Its time to repeal it NOW. The futures markets worked just fine for 60+ years and was created after GD1 when those markets were identified as a factor which led to GD1 and deepened the misery. The CFMA and Enron loophole it created is clearly doing the same now except in vastly larger ways than prior to GD1.
Yogi is spot on.
Nanoo-Nanoo wrote:
yogi often is
Yes, you see there's this thing called the profit motive. If you pay people shit they won't care much about their job. We've had prevailing wage statutes longer than unions. But the knee-jerks don't bother with history. Boy I hope the NFL goes on strike again.
Yogi<
So you have no problem with your tax dollars supporting private business then?
TSA took a large operating expense from the airlines and put it squarely on the shoulders of the US taxpayer.
Then the airlines have the nerve to charge a "9/11 security fee".
Do you maintain that spending tax dollars on "transportation safety" is the only way to make travel "safe"?
1 currency, not necessarily. Most exchanges, I believe, can require more money immediately and then liquidate you. Since the clearing firm guarantees your margin, they pretty much can liquidate you for any reason. That "any reason" could be that they just don't want any risk in the market you're trading in. Their compensation is minuscule relative to the risk they assume, so they will do almost anything to keep from suffering losses. Also they have been in business for long enough to realize that there are only two kinds of risk managers: the quick and the dead.
Good morning from the outskirts, and please don't get your panties in a bunch over much ado about something, there's nothing you can do...
YouTube - BOB MARLEY - DON'T WORRY BE HAPPY
HomeGnome wrote:
You misspelled "security theater".
Interesting breakdown of UE by wages.
OP-ED COLUMNIST; The Worst of the Pain - NY Times
If you count U6 for the under 12.5K per year crowd it is over 50%.
1 currency now -yogi wrote:
You and I agree with THAT statement. Unionization though is not necessarily the "magic fix". BTW, People's Express you talked up was a non-union company (now called Jet-Blue).
1 currency now -yogi wrote:
that's the rumor
then goodbye salary cap
Eric<
It was intentional.
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
they're counting on this belief
good morning
Fire Department Bills for Basic Services Horrify Residents, Insurance Companies - ABC News
er, isn't the NFL essentially on strike until September?
It's about time they cut out that socialist crap...BWAHAHAHAHA
There's nothing an average Joe or Jane can do to stop the bank robbery in progress at the highest levels, but there's plenty you can do to distance yourself from their actions...
Nanoo-Nanoo wrote:
I'm not disputing that there's a big influence, just questioning why standing for delivery (or not) is evidence of a short squeeze.
In fact I am quite sure that Spring Summer '08 was such an instance and hurt a lot of traders, some fatally. But how much was passed through to retail markets? How about in rice, where there was a spike in prices . . . but no futures market involved. Just old fashioned panic buying and hoarding, if I'm not mistaken.
New regs, scrutiny over what's going on w/ sovereigns? Absolutely needed, sure.
Walt:
Been through this several times. The game is for everyone to tie themselves at the hip and threaten to default within minutes. Paulson was on his knees. Of course all contracts "net out". If all the insurance companies go bust, no buildings collapse. But then no one has any insurance. Do you want no insurance? Good luck.
What - the Amish are accepting converts ?
welcome to Devil's Island
....this is what happens in the REAL world when news isn't accommodating to its major sponsors......
Toyota Dealers Pull ABC TV Ads; Anger Over Excessive Stories on Toyota Safety Problems - ABC News
volker the viking wrote:
everything is ok they are going to run a sneak preview of sports illustrated swimsuit edition. slicing and dicing tends not to bother me when I am fantasizing on how these beautiful nubile young things are going to hook up with me
Elizabeth Warren Calls Out Wall Street « The Baseline Scenario
There is no magic fix. Trusting Dimon and Blankfein ain't so smart either. Everybody complains that other Americans don't want to do cheap menial labor. So get a job as a security checker at an airport without union wages and benefits. Show us how it's done.
Greeks may strike any day. Nothing personal, just leverage.
Break free of their instruments of financial torture and reap the whirlwind, or go down with the ship. The choice is yours.
1 currency. There is a difference. Nobody is going to bail out any risk manager. Firms have risk and the exchange members have risk and the exchange has risk. Governments may bail out bad actors, but not risk managers, and the risk managers know this. "Pulling the plug" and "blowing you out" is a survival skill to them just like breathing .
China buys oil and gold:
China Becomes Oil ETF’s No. 4 Holder, Buys SPDR Gold (Update2) - Bloomberg.com
gabyjan wrote:
I would insist that the city council reduce next years budget by any amount billed. Not collected, billed. And not the inflated wishing budget either. It amazes me when public servants miss the point of their existence.
Thank you for your reply.
The wheat spot was worse than oil...but you do not remember $4/gal gasoline here and of course worse in other nations? It does get passed through big time. People who actually do their own grocery shopping can tell you that. Any product made with flour or corn inflated big time in '08 just as quickly as gasoline did. Once gasoline is affected anything that requires transportation for delivery of supplies spikes. This leads to higher prices everywhere. It was like the mini-oil embargo years for consumers.
The point is the futures markets were fine and the purpose was to spread the risk out, stabilize pricing so farmers, producers and suppliers could weather swings due to output problems beyond their control. Not so any longer, its a brokers market now and as yogi points out created the mechanism for globalized trading in SIVs. Its worked out so nice for less than 1% of the global population whose losses are socialized and are playing the same games again with the same end result. So, TBTF will have their cake and eat it too, it will be a redux with more zeros behind it.
gabyjan wrote:
....our town is trying this - it was just proposed at the last Town Board meeting.........Chief Lewis says ONLY the insurance companies will be billed for a "few" services.......and then tried to minimize the effect.
Miniscule. When 20% of my house is either on fire or full of arsonists, I sure as hell don't panic.
EU searches for way out of debt crisis - Yahoo! Finance
Nanoo-Nanoo wrote:
But of course.
What's the point of rising to a position of power, if you can't profit from it?
I will be selling today.....
When you live in an unincorporated area that never had much in the way of services, you don't miss them much...
There's still time to get away from the Big Smoke~
Proves you can go private and have price competition. Rural areas some insurance companies charge houses at burn down rates. Volunteer fire department and distance from fire station over 5 miles was my qualification. RG is right if the cost are not reduced from taxes then they are double dipping.
Then what happens when everyone, including nations, are broke and can't pay up? eh? Hot stock tip, buy
This stuff is supposed to be dry and boring, instead its the best soap opera in the history of man.
"TBTF will have their cake and eat it too"
......my deer departed maternal grand mother would always chide me on this statement. It apparently was originally, "Eat you cake and have it too"
Huh? No, I don't trust the free market to make airlines safe. Airlines should pay for the safety system and pass the cost to passengers. Who said you had to fly American? If there is competition, with safety equalized, you can find a flight for $4 more with a free blanket. If there is no competition, then there is either a natural or effective monopoly/oligopoly, and profits should be regulated.
If "capitalism" creates a system where only bankers and quarterbacks can afford to fly in luxury private jets, the linemen aren't going to protect the blindside (down in Chino-Latino).
Black Star Ranch wrote:
how long before they let you attend the meetings again?
JD, you know Don't Worry Be Happy is actually Bobby McFerrin, right? Somehow your youtube had it linked as Bob Marley.
Congressional Democrats point finger of blame at Rahm Emanuel - TheHill.com
See; it's not the repubs-
yagij wrote:
The comments on this UK article are interesting. I think it's safe to say that none of the British commentators are in favor of sovereign bailouts. How ironic, since they're likely to be fourth in line.
Greek crisis intensifies as Joe Stiglitz calls for Europe to 'teach the speculators a lesson' - Telegraph
"Sir Printsalot"... going to have to hang onto that one.
Black Star Ranch wrote:
another burden for future home semi property right buyers
Thanks BSR, Actually its "let them eat cake" although I recently learned that is false too. But hopefully the point is taken anyway. I need to improve my vocabulary.
Did someone already post Rosie's take on EMU and sovereign default?
Rosenberg Recaps The European, And Sovereign, Risk Soap Opera In Ten Paragraphs Or Less | zero hedge
[guess not]
Marley did it first, McFerrin just did a remake of it.
Cinco-X wrote:
it's the effing retards
merchants of fear wrote:
Some call it "The Circle of Life"
volker the viking wrote:
another 6-months........like some of the casinos here.......I don't work and play well with others....imagine that!
Nope. McFerrin wrote it. (Unless wiki is wrong)
Don't Worry, Be Happy - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Buck up little campers ...
's coming back out to play!
YouTube - Good mornig, good morning
Nanoo-Nanoo wrote:
Nanoo.......we would all have improved our worth had we had you as a momma....
Another Pavlovegas-adjacent hotel bit the dust yesterday, 400+ jobs gone.
YouTube - House Burning Down by. Jimi Hendrix
Look at the sky turn a hell fire red
Somebody's house is burnin' down down, down down
Well I asked my friend where is that black smoke comin' from ?
He just coughed and changed the subject and said oh well I think it might
Snow some
Has anyone read this book:
Amazon.com: Freefall: America, Free Markets, and the Sinking of the World Economy (9780393075960): Joseph E. Stiglitz: Books
I saw it at the bookstore on Sunday an it looked interesting-
Which one, JD?
YouTube - bob marley-everything's gonna be alright
volker the viking wrote:
That doesn't narrow it down very much....
Not sure how Bob Marley could have sung a song that was written in 1988, seeing as he died in 1981.
Something is amiss.
Black Star Ranch wrote:
neither do I
chalk it up to just one more place you can't go back to
Considering we were conditioned early in life to develop survival skills (think Green Machine and separation from all we knew and loved), it's almost a miracle we made it this far in one piece.
How to invest for a global-debt-bomb explosion
Prepare for an apocalyptic anarchy ending Wall Street's toxic capitalism
Yeah. The youtuber got it wrong.
But that's okay. It's still a great song. I've linked it here myself, a year or so back.
Which is to put out fires for bankers at $20 million mansions in neighborhoods they can't afford on civil service wages? Volunteer fire departments: Montgomery Burns out there with a bucket. Yeah, right.
Why not a volunteer privatized Air Force?
awww shucks BSR, what a nice thing to say! You just made my day!
Hey! What sage advice! Everyone should be doing that
Our debt time bomb is ready to go ka-boom Paul B. Farrell - MarketWatch
1 currency now -yogi wrote:
a well armed militia
I don't play well with politicians either!
I'm surprised no one has mentioned this --
If the federal govt. is closed for 2 days and no one notices, did it really exist?
nanoo
marie antonette(sp) let them eat cake is completly different from "eat your cake and have it too"
Cinco-X -- that didn't work out so hot for Ruby Ridge.
Outsider wrote:
Note the bold text: "His advice: Make tons of money"
Not yet, but I bought a copy at his lecture a few weeks ago. He said almost uniformly what I believe. Didn't get to ask him if he reads CR.
Maybe you shouldn't ignore what you don't like to hear, Cinco.
Does anyone here believe that? Where would UBS be without the AIG back-door bailout?
UBS Reports Higher Client Outflows, Return to Profit (Update1) - Bloomberg.com
Note the bold text: "His advice: Make tons of money"
Ah. To support the bribes. Okay.
........Ruby Ridge was a learning experience for some..........
Cinco-X wrote:
Love this kind of fiction. The reality is that Americans have no stomach for anarchy and an everlasting hope for "the American dream".
The Lorax wrote:
Have you been reading Nova's novel? What struck me about this piece is not so much what it said as the fact that this
meme is beginning to go mainstream-