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Hmmm...1999? When was the oil crisis? 1973?
Y2K party yeah!
DOW 6500!!!
s&p 666 was just a number too
no significance to it right?
Damn, Brian Williams looks young in that.
"Nothing magical" - do you hang out at malls before Christmas to tell the kids in line that Santa is just a story, CR?
"profit from it"
Ciao
MS
OK, anybody who hasn't hit the tip jar in a while, get to it. CR needs a new hat!
edit: Maybe Misean will make him a special one...
An Orderly Selloff? Maybe So, But Investors Fear the Worst - CNBC
Cinco-X wrote:
Bull.
If investors "feared the worst", the DOW would be at 3K.
The IMF now predicts that the government debt-to-GDP ratio in the G20 nations will explode to 118% by 2014 from pre-crisis levels of around 80%.
The Gov't debt to GDP ratio is already far higher than 118% in the U.S.
Debt held by the public = ~ $7.5 trillion
Debt held by trust funds = ~ $4.5 trillion
GSE unlimited guarantees = ~ $6 trillion
$18T/14T = OUCH! And that doesn't include unfunded future liabilities of medicare!
Wall St. has stolen the wealth and left behind a pile of unpayable debt for the rest of us to choke on.
Save the financial system - get real.
Or it could be @ 30K. With yen parity.
Gold Prices Headed to $820 an Ounce? | Market Features | Financial Articles & Investing News | TheStreet.com
Especially because a third of that 14T is pure FIRE-related vapor.
GREEN INC. COLUMN; Fraud Besets E.U. Carbon Trade System - NY Times
S&P 500 at 666 was definitely amusing.
Dow 10K is just a number, but I think Dow 10K hats are magical. They have staying power!
best wishes
NYSE reports in the morning........ Banner year I suppose. That print on the SPY at 4:00pm would worry me if I was short.....
Ciao
MS
i don't like this market. it just feels like it's rolled over and all that's left is the rot. i hope i'm wrong, but it doesn't feel like this one is going to come bouncing back tomorrow.
Difference between Greece and USA is that few wants to admit USA is in even worse position. I do not hear partial blackouts, selling of capitol buildings or 4-day school weeks for kids from Greece.
Why a China bubble burst would be quieter - Feb. 5, 2010
The three previous squiggles all tested the low.
I get it. It's different this time.
MS wrote:
do tell
Come on you numerology nuts, get analyzing... I'm sensing something out there on the horizon.
These are not the debts you're looking for.
Debti mind control.
From shill's link
Rash of retirements pushes Social Security to brink - USATODAY.com
"Money has to be found to repay those trust funds."
Tax the banks more ?
Iran's 2/11 surprise?
Bull.
If investors "feared the worst", the DOW would be at 3K.
Broward,
Where are the investors? All I see is the Fed supporting the mortgage market and Wall St. speculators gambling with house money.
It's going to be a real blast watching the boomers revert to their 1960's socialist leanings now that they're falling off the tax rolls and become takers from the system. Twenty years of watching geriatric rockers, marketing to make wearing Depends seem cool and ever higher taxes to keep the me generation in the retirement style to which they believe they're entitled. Might as well beat them to it and become a burden on society now.
The market will bounce back when the Fed reasserts liquidity.
Any of these will get money flowing into supporting stocks.
The market cannot be allowed to fall since, and assets in general cannot fall, since that would pull the rug out from under any number of pools of money that have already been skimmed to within a bent nickel of their lives.
Watch police and firemen revolt when their pensions stop being paid.
Such prescient and insightful analysis contained the first sentence:
"gold prices could sink to $820 an ounce by 2014, in the absence of inflation or strong demand from China, says a Citigroup analyst. "
Thanks all I needed to know right there.
RockyR-
7m+ right on the close......printed at 4pm closed at 105.96 on the 'stick. Just makes me wonder even though it was the EOD print and it can have big volume....just wondering outloud I guess.
Ciao
MS
RockyR wrote:
That's the same way I felt, RockyR. In the middle of January I looked at a chart, and from the second week of November until that point, in the middle of January, it seemed like the momentum had disappeared, that the market had reached max altitude and the engines were starting to gasp for air. Down we go.
But think of all those dividends that you've banked. Wait, the Wall Street types have been trying to persuade us that dividends are pasé, old fashiond thinking? That's because they don't get a cut of dividends, but when the price goes up, their cut goes up.
noob goldberg wrote:
all of my technical indicators went bearish in the middle of Jan. the liquidity pumps are off. i guess it's time to take losses and sit on the sideline.
Faber Says U.S. Would Be Rated Junk if It Were a Company: Video -- GuruFocus.com
I don't know where it is. Very elusive. I had really bad vibes about the Superbowl...but I am seeing numbers in dreams, even waking dreams. 22 and 11...34 42 and 77 of course...
Jim A wrote:
That's because they don't get a cut of dividends, but when the price goes up, their cut goes up.
I got a copy of "The Intelligent Investor" last year. I was surprised how boring investment is supposed to be. It put the nail in the coffin of the idea that what had been sold to me as 'investment' was really anything more than trading or gambling.
---CONJURE'S MAD MAX COUNTDOWN CLOCK---
The time is now:
11:47:04.0
The clock has advanced 2.0 seconds in two incidents today.
Conjure says, "Tensions are rising and the clock is ticking."
The year the party was over for me! Those where the days.
The market does feel like its rolled over to me. Couldn't even hold on to a minor manic Monday pump. Just goes to show how much of the runup was a liquidity illusion.
Financial overhaul hits partisan obstacle
At odds with Republican Sen. Richard Shelby over creation of a consumer protection agency, Sen. Christopher Dodd says talks to craft a consensus bill have stalled and he'll draft his own legislation.
I have to say this "powerful federal agency to protect consumers in the financial marketplace" sounds suspect. If you can't deal with risk, you shouldn't be in the market. That said, we shouldn't be bailing out these F.I.R.E. folks either.
mp wrote:
Which incidents, mp?
Tim Geithner wants you to take wooden nickels.
Numismaster.com
delete
noob goldberg wrote:
2/8/2010 11:47:03.0 China hawks demand cold war on the US
2/8/2010 11:47:04.0 Spain Portugal CDS spread hits new highs
Cinco-X wrote:
There's a balance, Cinco. We could say the same about fraud against the elderly...if you can't spot the con-man, you shouldn't open your front door. There has to be a mix of personal accountability and a regulatory/judicial framework.
Nuevodollars at ten-one should help.
Jim A wrote:
Jim, that's very cute. I can tell instantly you have spent your entire life in "the real world" and never interacted much with economists academic or professional. You see, Wall Street exists to direct all money towards the greatest creation of wealth. It's all very complicated, from millisecond to millisecond they are constantly making the fullest economic use of new information. Since the stock market is implicitly a free market, it's results are beyond reproach even if you don't trust Wall Street types. The leading negative correlation of financial industry earnings to the performance of the domestic economy only goes to show that problems arise when people get jealous of Wall Street types. Why do you hate the economy Jim?
mp wrote:
And those 2 incidents would be..........
Possible default in Greece? Showdown between US and China? Something else?
Jonathan wrote:
Jonathan is absolutely correct. This is a critical point. That pension money is gone and a lot of what is going on is related to delaying the day that cops, firefighters, teachers, etc. realize this fact. Who do you think bought the AAA tranches? Pension funds and insurance companies that have not marked-to-market.
Cinco-X wrote:
C'mon Cinco. FTA:
says a Citigroup analyst.
mp wrote:
6,000 pounds of marijuana seized in Roma : News : KGBT 4
Is that one of them?
at one second per incident.....we're going to be waiting very long.
IMO the problems have already happened.....all we are waiting for is the fallout of admitting them.
Ciao
MS
"problems arise when people get jealous of Wall Street types"
It is interesting that the market did start to sink at the exact moment discussion of
's 
entered the MSM a couple of weeks ago.
mp wrote:
Thank you, sir. I did enjoy that article last night, as well as its dissection by both you and EHP. Contrary views are the most educational of all.
Risk premiums for high-yield, or junk, bonds, meanwhile, have climbed to 681 basis points from 599 basis points on Jan. 11, according to the Merrill Lynch Master II High Yield Index. Key derivatives indices used to gauge corporate credit have also weakened.
Yields are also pressured by a wave of new bond sales. Issuance last month set a record for January, while the first week of February saw $27.4 billion in high-grade issuance and $4.4 billion in high-yield deals, according to Barclays. This came atop more than $1 trillion of high-grade and $148 billion of junk-bond sales last year.
"Our tactical view that spreads would widen has been playing out thanks to the strong rally in Treasurys as well as the significant bond supply last week," J.P. Morgan analysts wrote in a note Monday.
noob goldberg wrote:
Be aware that Major General Yang Yi is the chief of China's military policy institute.
noob goldberg wrote:
Is that what you meant to say? I'd suggest something more like the opposite. Otherwise, we agree, at least i think. We have laws and they should be enforced. And much like a referee in pro sports, sometimes you need to be a little strict early in the game to make the players realize you mean to enforce the rules; otherwise, the game can get out of hand. I'm afraid that' where we've been for quite awhile now...
So when does China start using "money as a weapons system" in this Brave New Cold War?
RATM wrote:
It's a link, and I think the time frame was like 2014. It's info; do with it as you wish...
EvilHenryPaulson wrote:
You see, Wall Street exists to direct all money towards the greatest creation of wealth.
Chasing yield...
Paying People Not to Walk Away
Paying People Not to Walk Away - Bucks Blog - NYTimes.com
HomeGnome wrote:
They already are.
MS wrote:
I'll betcha a major sovereign default like Nippon would be a lot more that a second..JMHO-
I don't know where it is. Very elusive. I had really bad vibes about the Superbowl...but I am seeing numbers in dreams, even waking dreams. 22 and 11...34 42 and 77 of course...
"all of my technical indicators went bearish in the middle of Jan. the liquidity pumps are off"
Those will be turned ON real soon because of states and cities are screaming for more money. This time the new money will be like an IV drip, not a pill to swallow. It will hit the circulation immediately.
That is because public sector salaries and projects will be then directly paid by printing money. Until recently the new money printed and borrowed was used just to cover losses of major banks. That already caused as secondary effect the stock and commodities markets upturns.
HomeGnome wrote:
Keeping the Yuan grossly under valued isn't using it as a weapon to ravage our industrial base?
Cinco-X wrote:
Very good.
edit: I would have used "savage," but I guess it depends on whether you have a sense of humor, which I don't.
At least none that I'm aware of.
Cinco-X wrote:
Keeping the Yuan grossly under valued isn't using it as a weapon to ravage our industrial base?
No, it's the real secret to their economic competitiveness as a producer...
Don't like to gamble...damn Southern Baptist brainwashing.
As an aside to my Proudest Monkey quip which was a reference to the ideas in the Dave Matthews song...
I found this part of a Tori Amos song very intriguing today:
Bliss
Father, I killed my monkey
I let it out to
Taste the sweet of spring
Wonder if I will wander out
Test my tether to
See if I'm still free
From you
Steady as it comes
Right down
To you
I've said it all
So maybe we're a Bliss
Of another kind
Lately, I"m in to circuitry
What it means to be
Made of you but not enough for you
And I wonder if
You can bilocate is that
What I taste
Your supernova juice
You know it's true I"m part of you
I have no doubt that QE will expand exponentially, and that even conservative estimates of the NYFRB balance sheet will surpass GDP soon enough - but how does one make the IV drip into Sacramento and Albany's veins? The vestigial remnants of the tenth ammendment make this tricky.
Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis: BLS Seasonal Adjustments Gone Haywire; 11% Unemployment Coming by May?
It's probably already that high, but the BLS measurement scheme hides it.
Cinco-X wrote:
You're correct, I typed a little too quickly
Agreed, we need referees to keep game-play fair; beyond that, they need to stay out of the way. If the game isn't fair, or the ref's keep ending up right in the middle of play, there's no point in even lacing up.
The quickest way to destroy a country is to give it aid and credit.
I think the Chinese have done a pretty good job of rotting us from within with cheap credit.
ERTS just pooped in the pool - shocking.
noob goldberg wrote:
Thanks for extending the analogy...that really makes it better and more sensible-
Shouln't it read "party like its 1789-1799"_ ala French Revolution. Wall Street and D.C. are playing with fire. If we don't see DOJ jumping in soon with some indictments and convictions, I wouldn't be surprised to see some serious "street justice" being administered on a regular basis.
greenchutes wrote:
Did they announce poor earnings or a delayed offering?
NGBROI wrote:
Careful about saying that out loud;
Cinco-X wrote:
The selloff will be orderly, until big investors start to panic.
Little investors have been panicking for quite awhile.
Kauai_Kahuna wrote:
It was a lot more fun when we were doing it to 3rd world economies.....ouch!
i'm have that "we're seriously fucked" feeling creeping back into my psyche. i think the drugs are wearing off.
Speaking of Citi, another emission from the Department of Bad Ideas:
Citi plans crisis derivatives - Risk.net
FTA: "However, there is concern from academic circles that the counterparty risks involved in such a product could create moral hazard. Chris Rogers, chair of statistical science at Cambridge University, said the only participants able to sell CLX-based products would probably be those who are too big to fail."
"how does one make the IV drip into Sacramento and Albany's veins? The vestigial remnants of the tenth ammendment make this tricky. "
They just declare it as state of emergency with a "disaster" zone covering 40 states, release federal aid and cheap....LOANS. And send in the Marines.
I'm sure we can hire a lot of foreign armies to keep the peace in US cities while our Army is out and about. Hey, maybe that is how we plan to bail out Europe?
rich wrote:
I thought it was interesting to hear it from CNBC. I figure they're just trying to calm the markets while their buddies cash out-
Reality can do that, RockyR
mp wrote:
phphph.. lightweight.
LoserBeachBum wrote:
Weimar here we come!
Why do I get the feeling that the last 11 months was just the eye of the storm and that the trailing wall clouds are just about upon us? And by the way, who says we only get hit by one storm before this all over?
EA is like the Microsoft of the gaming world. It's a shame they've swallowed so many good small developers.
LoserBeachBum wrote:
These stories never mention the other alternative, just default on the debt. It seems like in every economist's flowchart, the happy outcome is for them to borrow all the money they want at low rates forever.
If a governor had the onions, just close down the police forces, fire departments and public hospitals. Bluff Obama into paying up or sending in the National Guard.
sm_landlord wrote:
It almost sounds like they've decided to "go all in". I'm with ya'-
Thanks, though we already have Pendleton down here. It would be interesting to get the Oceanside PD perspective on that idea.
ResistanceIsFeudal wrote:
It's both. Both of you are correct.
So true.
LoserBeachBum wrote:
National Guard; we don't want to involve the regular military. It'd be bad precedent for the future...
They were like the MSFT of the gaming world until Probst left. Now they're more like the GM of it. They had billions in cash income over the past decade, and developed nothing with it but warmed-over atttempts at other peoples' IP.
Oxtail wrote:
So Blizzard it like the Apple of the gaming world? I like Blizzard better. They've never disappointed me, aside from delivering D3, what was it, 3 years late? That said, it was worth the wait..
Careful about saying that out loud;
FUCK "EM
well there is that standing order still out there from Oct. 2008 regarding the use of 100k troops in the event of an "emergency".
October 1st: U.S. Troops Training for Domestic Unrest - Infoshop News
Ciao
MS
I like round numbers, too. This is comment #100.
I think.
Bummer. #101. A comment late and a dollar short.
Do you really think the proletariat will have the opportunity to dole out "street justice"? We'll be living in a police state long before then.
NGBROI wrote:
I only worry that when this happens, they'll start searching and find that, and then we'll all be under their watchful eye. Perhaps we need Codespeak for such?
Was that the one that allowed Canadian and Mexican troops and convoys access to the US too?
vonbeck-
No se.... this is just for our 'security' I think.
Ciao
MS
Solar stocks fell after Deutsche Bank AG said the average selling price for solar panels may decline more than 20 percent this year because of a glut. First Solar Inc. (FSLR:US), which had it share-price estimate cut to $125 from $135, slipped 2.6 percent to $111.21. Canadian Solar Inc. (CSIQ:US) dropped 6.2 percent to $20.66. Evergreen Solar Inc. (ESLR:US) sank 4.3 percent to $1.35
"The tree of liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of patriots and tyrants."
---Thomas Jefferson.
I can't remember what it was now, but there was a cooperation framework put in place supposedly that in the event of a state of emergency (a la Swine Flu pandemic) Canadian and Mexican military could use US roads to move supplies and help with vaccine distribution...maybe it was all just
HomeGnome wrote:
"Stop mucking around"
---Mom
The Bears Are Putting On Weight - Getting Technical - M. Kahn - Barrons.com
EvilHenryPaulson wrote:
"It'll never heal if you keep picking at it."
--Mom.
Cinco-X wrote:
I guess it's a little difficult to get a HELOC to buy solar panels right now...
HomeGnome wrote:
Aw man....and I was gettin' short-
Cinco-X wrote:
Or uh, have a credit card. Or a mortgage. Or a car loan.
Cinco, the world is full of two things. People who can't deal with risk (or long contracts), and risk.
it's not the risk i have a problem with, it's the losses.
HomeGnome wrote
I loved this quote growing up, but now that I have read about how every founding father was a member of some secret sect or another...Makes me wonder which patriots gave the 'blood' for the Capital cornerstone. Even that phrase Tree of Liberty has so many levels of meaning...
A comment from PK's NYT column:
America Is Not Yet Lost - Readers' Comments - NYTimes.com
OP-ED COLUMNIST; America Is Not Yet Lost - NY Times
"
26.
HIGHLIGHT (what's this?)
Armando Vega
Chicago, IL
February 8th, 2010
10:20 am
I was a volunteer for Mr. Obama during the first Iowa caucus back in December 2007. I walked around risking frostbite for lack of adequate winter clothing, and had overdrafted on my checking account for want of gas money to take me the 6 hours northwest to Muscatine and Davenport Iowa, in a car with no working heater.
Yep, I really had a lot of faith in Mr. Obama. It's funny, I don't know if it's the difference of just a few years or something else, but I felt so young back then (I'm 23 now). I have no recourse but to share Mr. Krugman's sentiments, for a whole host of reasons. America is on a downslide. Obama was the pressure point to reduce that trend. Nobody thought he was a God, but MY God I never thought he'd be such an inutil.
"
inútil Adjective
...un argumento ocioso...a pointless argument...
For more, there are fast moving and slow moving monies in the circulation. So if US government starts paying salaries by printing, that money will almost all go directly into high speed M1:
"A category of the money supply that includes all physical money such as coins and currency; it also includes demand deposits, which are checking accounts, and Negotiable Order of Withdrawal (NOW) Accounts."
Currently M1 in the US is only about 1650 billion dollars. US public sector salaries total is probably at least 150 billion per month. You buy groceries and other daily stuff with that M1...
sm_landlord wrote:
If only homeowners were that smart with the loose money.
anyone know if Canada is seriously looking at opening up the MLS? Competition Bureau seeks to smash ‘anti-competitive' CREA rules on MLS - The Globe and Mail
It's odd, because our competition bureau / government generally accepts or encourages price fixing. However they did shepherd through some upcoming expansions to the cellphone market, where they normally would have blocked Globalive based on circumventing the domestic equity requirements with the creditor structure. Maybe they find that the easiest way to win power is by looking out for the public at large at least to a limited extent. Maybe just a temporary side-effect of a minority government. Maybe this is all talk and the MLS will be untouched
MLM wrote:
If you can't deal with a car loan, drive your old clunker and save up enough to buy one; don't buy stuff you can't afford. If you can't handle the risk of cliff diving in Mexico, stick to the high board at the local pool. Life isn't necessarily filled with all or nothing choices.
Cinco-X wrote:
now I'm gonna buy it on this rock - game over, man!
SNAFU wrote:
It could be worse; I recall some woman working on Hillary's campaign emptied her 401k. Ouch; of course, it would probably worth much less now if she hadn't, but......
ISTR it only includes those UP TO the FDIC limit.
SNAFU wrote:
A couple of large, visible, public projects, and this kid would be back on board. I don't know who's advising Obama, but they need to be slapped upside the face. Unless it's a tentacle of the
, in which case I advocate a harsher penalty.
He's lost his base, and is rapidly approaching the point at which he won't be able to get them back.
After Just One Month: Dubai's Famous Burj Khalifa Has Shut Down
The world's tallest skyscraper has unexpectedly closed to the public a month after its lavish opening...
Thank you for the definition...just had to look it up myself...new word hooray!
LoserBeachBum wrote:
For all we know, it'll go to pay off credit card debt, and disappear into the void.
Cinco-X wrote:
Credit cards and loans are tools, just as a lawnmower is a tool.
Allegedly somebody picked up a running lawnmower to trim their hedges, and lost a few digits in the process.
Do we need yellow warning labels on everything?
energyecon wrote:
game over
Love that movie....
noob goldberg wrote:
Sarah! Sarah!
I can hear it now.
mp wrote:
His base won't be voting for Sarah. I doubt she'll leave Fox anyway; it sounds like a plush deal.
mp wrote:
Good lord, don't even joke about that, mp.
Collapsible Cargoshell Shipping Container Cuts Emissions | Inhabitat
I don't like the design, moving parts increases costs, decreases reliability, and it probably can't hold the same load on top in the collapsed position
however the concept of variable size shipping container is probably has great potential
noob goldberg wrote:
Who's joking?
noob goldberg wrote:
He's lost his base, and is rapidly approaching the point at which he won't be able to get them back.
noob, please read
FT.com / Comment / Analysis - America: A fearsome foursome
and iyhtt
Steve Clemons: Core Chicago Team Sinking Obama Presidency
America's Broken Equity Culture - Hulbert on Markets - Mark Hulbert - Barrons.com
10 scariest words in English:
"Hi I'm President Palin. Now, where are the launch codes?"
Vonbek777 wrote:
Yeah, but those patriots weren't facing chain guns and cluster bombs either.
As shelters?
The '74 low is only a low in nominal terms - make it real terms and "sustained recovery" looks like a bobsled ride to hell for another 8 years.
1812 Napoleon marching on Moscow...
Kauai_Kahuna wrote:
I'm already seeing that here.
"For all we know, it'll go to pay off credit card debt, and disappear into the void. "
Some of the money will but that will only slow down a bit the inflation. Already now many Americans are choosing NOT to pay their mortgages and they have actually now more money for their daily expenses. That means they are already adding more fuel to the high speed M1.
mp wrote:
we don't have a barf icon, yet. this one will have to do.
DOW 10000? Adjusted for inflation from 1999, we're not even DOW 7500!
you know how you can tell if a finance article is BS? it references the dow like it means something. 30 stocks is too few to be representative of the economy, it is not a mathematical average but a fiction contrived by the editors of the WSJ, and about half of the components have been removed and replaced with better performing ones since 1993, rendering historical comparisons completely meaningless.
Palin/ Beck 2012!
Blameless in Abaddon?
I think the DJIA has significance. It is a bit like the membership at Augusta, but that's still a relevant sample.
We've got a runner on level 2.
H'wood may remake that soon.
http://www.vancouver2010.com/olympic-news/n/news/feature-stories/win-a-trip-to-the-vancouver-2010-olympic-winter-games-and-enter-bcs-great-mountain-giveaway_199780EZ.html
if anyone wants to enter a contest(s):
• 2 tickets to olympic closing ceremonies
• 4 day/5 night trip for 20 at your choice of 13 BC ski resorts
HomeGnome (homepage, profile) wrote on Mon, 2/8/2010 - 5:22 pm Palin/ Beck 2012!
I see paralells to the mood of this country today and Germany in the 30's. We all know what that led to.
I really think the bottom line truth of the situation is that this country **can't **be fixed. We've gone over that event horizon.
I'm am firmly in mp's camp re the future or lack thereof
make that papallels
SHIT!!! parallels
There's now a class action lawsuit against Hardinge to accept Romi's hostile bid.
The last great US machine tool manufacturer--builder of the Bridgeport--is finished.
Well, I'm getting close to seeing it all...
Just got this ad from MusicDirect:
The Best Sounding Beatles on a USB Stick...
The Complete Stereo Catalog at 24bit/44.1k
Higher Resolution than the CDs and You'll Hear the Difference Right Away...
NO MORE WILL EVER BE MADE!
SNAFU wrote:
Thank you, SNAFU, that was an excellent synopsis. It seems that the administration is completely unfocused, and that's a failure that rests squarely on the shoulders of his advisors. Either they fix it or he should smarten up and find someone who can.
They were worth 30 mil a year ago. Wonder how many execs and traders played that churn between 20 and 40 in the past decade?
greenchutes wrote:
Is that from Logan's Run?
David Axelrod is born perfectly in the middle of the Boomer demographic bubble. Poetic, ain't it?
yep. pretty funny.
Sarah will break the plutocracy or she may keep Rahm on, No.
mp wrote:
That's not good; when we stopped making products years ago, we still exported machine tools to the rest of the world. Now we may find ourselves in a position where even if we have the need to retool our manufacturing base, we won't have the technology to do it. This is a bad sign.
FT.com / Currencies - Traders make $8bn bet against euro
Interesting....
noob goldberg wrote:
True, it is pretty on the money. The O admin ought to shift the WH to a former glorious but hard hit state , say Ohio, and feel the pulse of the country that way, and not shift back to DC till UE is a manageable 7% or so and health care is bill passed . This sitting in plush WH, engulfed in softness corrupts everybody, just ask Bill Clinton!
Hey Otis, where ya been?
LoserBeachBum wrote:
A pop, then another crash.
The question is how big is the pop.
FRB: The Federal Reserve System Purposes and Functions
Provides a detailed look at the structure, responsibilities, and operations of the Federal Reserve System. Revised in 2005 to reflect changes in monetary, regulatory, and other policy areas. Incorporates major changes in the law and in the structure of the financial system in the past decade.
Thinking a revision is in the works.......
Ok Squidward, hats off
Gawd, I hope you're wrong but I can imagine Hispanics or Mid-Easterners (in the event of a major terrorist attack) playing the role of the Jews.
The less we feel in control, the more likely it is to seek a scapegoat.
I, and a lot of others, get to find out how good our roofs are soon. I have around 26 inches of snow and I could get another foot of it tommorow.
Sell the Parthenon!!!
I don't know, it won't fit on my balcony.
nova wrote:
You might want to get up there and shovel it if it's flat enough to stand on; if not, the snow may very well slide off-
I guess I will find out. At least the 100 ft pine next to me has half it's branches sheared off. It probably won't fall now
nova wrote:
I actually expect my gutters to tear off. Temperatures near but below freezing mean that the there has been some melting of snow on the roof, since even with insulation, heat from the house rises. But once that melt hits the downspout it freezes. So my downspouts are now solid ice. When the gutters overflow, I'll get huge icicles. I'm hoping I can knock that weight of ice off before the gutters go, but my gutters aren't in particularly good shape.
Yeah, either are my gutters. Same problem
friggin' Chinese gutters.
Put a tariff on 'em.
Interesting but basically a
since it triggers
only when the house is sold or re-fied.
Yeah, I'm getting that looking into the abyss thing, it went away for a while,
but now it's baaa--aaackkkk.
President Gasbag: a one termer for sure at this rate.
LL:
You say that like you've got your head stuck through an ax-riddled door.
Well, when our SecTres says "The US will never loose its AAA rating", I just figure it is already done, and we are just in denial.
rosethorn wrote:
A lot can change between now and 2012. We know "Al Qaeda " want to attack us here, and we have no idea how BHO or the country will respond. Clinton really turned it around between 1994 and 1996-
And for those who like to supersize their orders, tonistraka.com
Cinco-X wrote:
If you can't deal with a mortgage contract or a purchase contract, then rent. But if you can't deal with a rental contract, then live under a bridge. No contracts needed for that.
I misspoke before. The world is full of people who can't handle risk, and people who are using an informational advantage to rip the first group's face off. I love the idea of laissez-faire in principal, it's just the practice that doesn't seem to work out so well.
Amazon.com: Suncast SRR2100 24-Inch Snow Shovel Roof Rake with 20-Foot 3-3/8- Inch Reach: Patio, Lawn & Garden
Sounds like most of you out east can use a snow rake, the only problem is to find one at this point......Hopefully no rain will be in the forecast which can cause backup of water under shingles and additional roof load issues.
Well, lobbing a few cruise missiles at empty camps are cheaper than a full on war. He just hung out the sign that said attack us. Worked for a few years that is for certain.
Cinco-X wrote:
And remember how high Bush I was riding after GW1. Then that pesky recession left voters with a recency effect. These things can turn on a dime.
LAM wrote:
Not to mention the additional weight when soaked into the snow...
Trust me, rain here isn't an issue.
Having three kids home without having to kill them is.
Maury the Credit Responsibility Panda wrote:
For a more recent example, see Martha Coakley's campaign between Dec. and Jan.
"I learned it by watching you, dad"
Thanks LAM,
A good idea.
Now, where are the launch codes?"
The weapons are still there. The first question about a politician for that office should be: Do I trust that person with two thousand nuclear weapons?
HomeGnome wrote:
More like, "I learned by pushing your buttons at random"
Hey CR, do you have any data or know where any data can be found that breaks down mortgage delinquency rate by state? Most of the defaulting on mortgages is occurring in just 5 states, right?
And they get so good at it. Never say our children are slow, they just know how to get what they want, and they get it.
Who needs to work or study hard in that case.
why, cause the Dow is at 10k?
rosethorn wrote:
a one termer for sure at this rate.
That's one term more than the rest of us.
Always wondered, could two men actually launch the missiles because Jesus told them to do so...would US military actually follow? Just in a normal day like today?
LoserBeachBum wrote:
The rumor is that Al Haig instructed the guys carrying "the football" (at least I think that's what they called it) not to do anything if Nixon tried to implement a launch; there was a lot of worry that he was losing it near the end. I don't know if we'll ever know if that was true.
Jesus would never say any such thing.
MLM wrote:
When I decide to rip someone's face off, it's not going to be with paper, it's going to be with gunpowder.
If that's the world you want, then just say so we can get to it.
I didn't sign up to live in Mexico or China or India, and turning the US into Mexico, China or India is not acceptable.
LoserBeachBum
Not likely, but maybe a group of 15 in the right places.
You would most likely have to feed mis-information to a much larger number of people to bully / push them into following.
The sum of all fears - is a very disturbing book to read.
Just remember not to look at the flash, hide under the desks, and get behind something
white.
Really this is worse than the Godwin thing.
bloggieloggie wrote:
You know, I have thought a little about this and at least to me, the prospects seem pretty bleak. The thought probably was pay retirees from the cash flows. If they still hold this crap something's got to give.
know where any data can be found that breaks down mortgage delinquency rate by state?
US Credit Conditions - Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Auto, CC, Mortgages, Student Loans thru Q3/09
broward
No, you just won the lottery when you where born here.
But everything tends to return to the mean, and either the worlds standard of living increases, or ours will decrease. Get used to it.
lawyerliz - and get behind something white.
No, you want to get in front of something white, that way you can leave a lasting impression.
Wow, that's awesome LAM - thanks. Exactly what I was looking for.
What happens if DC keeps on getting snow for the next few weeks?
Sorry Nova-- and I'd try and knock the snow off your roof.
LAM - Nice link, thank you.
MLM wrote:
You say that like it's a bad thing.
A real estate mtg broker that I've done a few minor transactions with called and
asked me if I did bk. No sez I, but they can't latch onto your house; don't file until
they see the whites of their judgmental eyes. And don't pay either. If you wait
5 years they can't sue. Payments extend the 5 years.
The forebearances they offered were laughable and at least one of the bill
collectors was from India.
Yep, which doesn't bode well for a stock market with a historical P/E of about 13. That translates to Dow 3000 or so.
LAM wrote:
Man check out student loans - tons of 90+ day delinquency. I wonder what that means - you can't get rid of student debt through bankruptcy. I didn't expect there would be that many loans bad. Sarah Palin's state seems particularly bad at paying back student loans.
What is the PE now. Haven't looked for maybe a year.
You can't pay if you don't have any money.
You can't pay if you don't have any money.
Are there enough bill collectors in all of India to hound
all the non-paying students?
Always wondered, could two men actually launch the missiles because Jesus told them to do so..
Never mind the reason. There are very delicate questions concerning command and control. At one time I received answers to questions, for what they were worth, but they are probably well out of date even if in accord with reality.
In any case, if there is no provision for an independent launch, then there is a possibility that command and control to initiate a launch might be lost. An adversary must be left in doubt as to whether or not independent possibilities for a launch exist.
I was told, for instance, that in the SU, in certain circumstances, the officer in command of a single bunker could initiate a launch.
Source: General Geli Batenin, Moscow, 1991.
TCA wrote:
a survivor weighted stock market with a historical P/E of about 13. That translates to Dow 3000 or so.
There. I fixed that for ya. .
toombzie wrote:
It means all of those college graduates used their high income jobs to finance Lamborghinis instead of paying off their student debt.
When last I checked (early January), the P/E for the S&P was around 85 or so.
It's the America of change. Never paying back you debts is like never having to saying your sorry! Your safety net is ready!
"and get behind something white."
something or someone?
Hmm, gotta ask the wife tonight for the "real" reason she married me.
*Sarah Palin's state seems particularly bad at paying back student loans. *
Who's going up there to collect when you might never come back.....
pavel.chichikov wrote:
I forget exactly, but certain field grade officer in the Soviet Army had the authority to launch tactical nuclear weapons, or at least we believed they did. Not so sure about strategic weapons. As for the US, while the President had the final authority, there is an established chain of control to be used if the President is killed, captured, incapacitated, or otherwise in disposed-
lawyerliz wrote:
Yeah - i'm just wondering if that's a sign of the problems this unemployment rate is putting on households or if its a sign that the youth of this country do not fully realize that they cannot get out of paying that debt back.
If I lost my job I'd try to keep current on student loans and stop paying credit cards... I guess if you have no savings at all then you stop paying both immediately, except maybe the minimum on credit cards if it's $10 or something. I don't see unemployment having lingered long enough for that large of an explosion of delinquency in student loans - especially since the unemployment crisis has fallen disproportionately on people who do not have college educations. Of course that doesn't take into account the people who run up student debt and don't make it out with a degree...
It gets a little worst if you realize that after major credit crunches and extended adjustments in earnings, the markets usually get down to PE values in the single digits. But I think I would start buying good companies if the SPX went under 600. I'm not too greedy.
Hate to reply seriously to snark, but Sallie Mae is beyond messed up. It took my wife nearly a year to get them to process her unemployment deferment and every other change has been a nightmare too. I wouldn't be surprised if a good number of the 90 day delinquencies are due to Sallie Mae's (outsourced to India) customer service department being incompetent.
the authority to launch tactical nuclear weapons,
IMHO, once a single one of those weapons is launched, it is likely all over for at least most of us.
If you believe that the spx is really earning 50 bucks, that means a p/e of about 20 at 1000.
And I also believe that PIIGS can fly. I don't believe any earnings from the banks until I believe their balance sheets and this mark to fantasy is over.
ISTR reading in open sources that at one point during the cold war, there was so much worry that a SNAFU might prevent launch, the Permissive Action Links (basicaly a combination lock) for SACs ICBMs were all set to 00-00-00.
pavel.chichikov wrote:
Hardly; those are theater weapons. In the day, if the Allies had fought the USSR, it would have been hell for Douche Land, but it's quite likely that the war would have remain confined the theater nukes; the USSR and the USA had a mutual interest in avoiding MAD-
Hardly; those are theater weapons. In the day, if the Allies had fought the USSR, it would have been hell for Douche Land, but it's quite likely that the war would have remain confined the theater nukes; the USSR and the USA had a mutual interest in avoiding MAD-
That was then, and even at that your analysis is somewhat complacent.. But we're more likely to see an exchange between two south Asian countries, for example The environmental effects alone of lofting masses of smoke and particulates into the stratosphere would be enough to put paid to billions of people. And do you imagine that the MoDs of certain other countries would remain calm in certain other circumstances of "limited' attack?
streaming stock footage for media at olympics, Today's Video: BC Media Centre 2010 Winter Games Secretariat (kind of behind the scenes-ish)
Well the superpowers also had a vested interest in avoiding a Theater Nuclear War, and we're positing here that for some reason THAT didn't stop them. I would argue that the reason that we fought our proxy wars on other continents was the fact that both sides knew that crossing the iron curtain would probably turn into full scale armageddon. At the end of the day, distasteful and dangerous as it was, taking millions of civilions hostage through the threat of nuclear annhialtion worked. Sort of. Those stuck in local conflicts that were fanned higher by superpowers josteling for position might disagree.
When I look at some of the market's recent technical metrics (tea leaves), it suggests that we're "in for a bumpy ride".
Import surge is projected for L.A. and Long Beach ports | Money & Company | Los Angeles Times
Good news, we're going to enjoy a great import-led recovery. I'm not exactly sure how this is going to work with sky high unemployment, but let's not fret the details...
mp wrote:
Actually, I see it as a kind of gift, given the doom that spells for some elements of conservative interests.
I wonder if GS has as many contingency plans as the military? I am not a trader but it seems to me that the amount of varibles in play have increased to the point were decisions, or placing of bet, is going to have to be done very quickly.
You look kinda beaten up a bit,
I brought something to cheer you up.
http://www.chillimix.com/images/stories/easygallery/resized/0/1255726705_froggy%20cupcake.jpg
pavel.chichikov wrote:
Far more likely is an exchange between Israel and someone else...
pavel.chichikov wrote:
What I recited was the doctrine of the time; things were different then. We've already fired off numbers of devices above ground between 1945 and whenever the atmospheric test ban occurred, and while there certainly were some ill effects, such as incorporation of strontium 90 in the bones of children, they were probably no worse (excluding Hiroshima and Nagasaki) than the effects of Chernobyl. If you're suggesting that nuclear war, even a limited nuclear war, is a bad thing, then sure...it's a bad idea. That doesn't mean the world wouldn't survive another above ground nuclear blast; we'd better hope that's the case, because there are certain groups intent upon acquiring and using them on us....it'll probably happen sooner or later; I just hope it's later.
Blackhalo wrote:
I do too. At least we will be able to keep track of her talking points ala the junior high hand scribbling. It will also make drinking games easier because you can decide on a wildcard rule where you have to kill bottles depending on what the scribbled words are and when/how she says them.
.
Seriously, give the Teabaggers 4 years of Sarah after the "yoots" become disenchanted Obamites and combining them with the scarred Sareigns may bring about CB's MM sooner.
I'm thinking of getting a Masters in Accounting or an MBA. Can't decide which better complements a JD.
Plus Todd will have racing stripes put on the presidential limo!
it's pronounced Tadd
---I'd go with Cola cola or just over ice.
Hoops,
Ever thought of forensic accounting?
Tadd, Todd, he is still Palins pole
mp wrote:
Seriously.
.
I'm still waiting to see the 4th and 5th tier law schools start to falling like dominoes. Mix 'em in with the smaller private liberal art colleges/universities. I know of a smaller liberal art university or two that are on their 2nd or 3rd lifeline to prevent 'em from closing the doors (All real property is mortgaged to the hilt). I know of a seminary or two that are also trying to do whatever it takes to keep their doors open. Years of bad management and administrator hubris coming home to roost there. I know of an ABA-accredited law school still trying to open their doors by 2013 (or 2012, I forget).
.
That is a meat grinder for all parties involved.
Hoopajoops LTD wrote:
You given up on your Biology-related career track?
http://data.newyorkfed.org/creditconditions/#US_expLossThruMay_altA
Scroll to the bottom.
Very high losses on second liens.
Just as you'd expect.
These suckers need to be marked to zero.
"the 4th and 5th tier law schools start to falling"
They should really close all except the top 100 on humanitarian grounds. 100K of student debt just doesn't square with (maybe) 50K incomes.
UDC still has a law school, but frankly you'd do better to read for the law and practice in VA.
nova wrote:
I recently listened to the audiobook version of What Do You Care What Other People Think, a kind of autobiographical account through a series of letters by Richard Feynman. He spends around half the time discussing the NASA Challenger investigation. To summarize one of his thoughts on the NASA side: people in charge were either yes-men delivering expected results or they believed what they said because of hubris. These innocent problems were compounded the more people it would have to pass through. Finding problems to solve went from being rewarded to discouraged. I'm not doing his opinions or NASA justice, but to do so would require a wall of text
Sarah's sort of a Joan of Arc for her age.
Little things like remembering big things by scribbling them onto your hand only endears her more to her audience of mostly know-nothings, it's a perfect fit.
EHP,
I think, based on reading, that any org run by a charismatic leader, ends up with all those problems.
That is an incredible insult to Joan of Arc...
One thing that's gradually changed is the growth of a large class of middle-class and affluent middle-class of people in the U.S. (mostly older) that depends directly on short-term and intermediate-term interest rates for a good part of lifestyle support.
Secondarily, there are insurance companies, pension plans and foreign investors who depend on short-term and intermediate-term U.S. interest rates to meet their mandates.
It was never contemplated or envisioned that the Fed would serve as a direct self-interested conduit to funnel vast quantities of money from these savers directly to big banks. Maybe it was contemplated the Fed would do this in an emergency, or temporarily to restore economic balance and stimulus. But not like this.
People all over the U.S. are dumbfounded to learn the Fed has this much power, in such an arrogant and self-serving way and with zero accountability or transparency. The fuse may be long, but it will burn down until the Fed as-we-know-it explodes.
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
Seeing her crucified by the MSM and the blogosphere helps too-
nova wrote:
I've worked at places run by flaming @$$holes that had those problems too-
yagij, yeah, I decided I didn't like the length of schooling I would need to undertake and the personal fit of the career options available afterward. I think I would have the most fun in business, but as a lawyer I don't have the quantitative analysis skills to hack it either as an entry level or on my own. I certainly don't want to go into accounting, but I would like to be able to analyze the value of things in the course of scoping out opportunities and ventures, and I think the technical training of accounting plus my law degree might give me better chops than an MBA program. I'm a generalist at heart, I like building things and working with people; the sciences did not offer that for me at the end of the day. I also have an uncommon eye fueled by a deep anti-conformist streak, which enables me to spot trends and find value that the huge mass of people generally miss.
It doesn't hurt that the law degree synergizes excellently with a business focus, and not at all with a science focus. I have to make the best use of what I have on the table already.
So the question is, accounting or MBA, if MBA, good school or cheap school?
Nova, I don't think I'd like forensic accounting because of the retrospective focus of it.
greenchutes wrote:
Seriously.
.
Places like Florida Coastal out of J'ville, FL are charging 30+k/year, and legal profession is shedding jobs at a rate that would give me nightmares if I was a law school student. I know of local judges that are openly telling candidates that they aren't reading through every application for clerks because there are just too many applications. Law graduates are lucky to get a clerkship in the remote rural areas of the SE because the supply backup from the ivy leagues on down is causing all kinds of gluts in descending job markets.
.
From what I'm reading in ABA articles and legal blogs, it is getting uglier out there and yet LSAT takers and admission applications are still going up.
Cinco-X wrote:
Probably now, as it appears we have peaked in May of 2005, for that black stuff you pump out of the ground.
If you add all that ethonol, and synthetic oil, and LNG, we caught it in July of 2008.
We could exceed that amount, but 2005 is getting distant in the rear view mirror.
Oh geez.....Got drama? She isn't being crucified. The "poor me" schtick gets old after awhile. Put your big girl panties on and "plow on through it"....She can't remember three sad talking points without writing them on her hand? Dumb as a box of rocks...period.
All of JD's higher education involved going out and meeting the world on their terms, and seeing that there are many ways of going about doing something, not just the American way.
In lieu of more fancy schmancy degrees, why don't you go visit the world for a few years?
nova wrote:
Plus Todd will have racing stripes put on the presidential skidoo !
Fixed
Comrade Kristina wrote:
Gotta side with CK here.
.
Eventually even the Know-Nothings are gonna want something delivered and realize what Alaska already figured out. (I can only hope.)
Hoopajoops-- Science + law degree = patent work. Which frankly sounds pretty boring to me.
Hoops,
I still think you need to travel America. Blog it. Talk to people. Practice your speechmaking. Become a populist hero. Find mp's bunker. Get drunk with CK.
Jim A, patent work is suicidally boring. I know multiple patent lawyers who cashed their permanent checks due to frustration and boredom.
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
You need to get out and take a drive from LA to NYC via the Gulf Coast. I'm pretty sure you'll discover her audience is a lot bigger than you might think.
adornosghost wrote:
I'm referring specifically to the oil crisis shown in 4 bears rally off lows-
I second that. I learned more in being dragged around from army base to army base than I ever learned in a text book. Still remember standing in Roman ruins on the Rhine...travel as much as you can when you are young...not talking about taking tours either...get out on your own...
Damn, I can't wait for the footage of Sarah and Taddster hunting moose using an Apache.
IMHO if you're going to do IP there are many more interesting, unsetteled issues in copyright than patents. But then copyrights are my OTHER obsession.
Yeah, the same 20% that think Bush did a great job...The same 20% that think the POTUS was born in Kenya...we get it.
yagij wrote:
Aren't the know-nothings still waiting for Obama to pay their mortgage?
Jim A wrote:
At least you can feel good about yourself when you go home, and if I'm not mistaken, it generally pays better than criminal law-
UDC still has a law school, but frankly you'd do better to read for the law and practice in VA.
My bosses daughter just graduated very high at Notre Dame Law, great at moot court, passed the VA bar. Living at home here in AZ, finally got a part time gig document reading. Waiting for the call, I guess. At least he was able to pay it all as she went. The double major in three years here in AZ also paid off.
must see TV
Jesse's Café Américain: Steve Meyers: Global Debt Crisis, Dollar Carry Trade, and 2010 Forecast Update
Hoopajoops LTD wrote:
You really can be bored to death, scientists discover | Mail Online
Oxtail wrote:
Oh. many still are. They are called trial mods.
The saddest group of Americans are going to be those that thought the invisible man was going to come fetch them, but instead they'll have to suffer along with us as our economy unravels, stuck on Earth with a bunch of mere mortals.
bearly wrote:
The gods envy us...that is why they are jealous and torture us so...someone once said that a long, long time ago.
and as another aside... tent revivals did quite well during GD 1...
I am going here in April...
Creation Museum - Creation, Evolution, Science, Dinosaurs, Family, Christian Worldview | Creation Museum
Ah well..I got my
so apparently some of us qualify...
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
"If God's ways are unknowable, why am I listening to you?" he says to the pastor.
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
No they will just up the ante and persevere and probably be happier than the cynics
volker the viking wrote:
World class
Because you don't want to "die"...
Tom in AZ wrote:
Utah should be interesting as it craters. It has the potential to be The Waltons writ large.
bearly wrote:
To be fair, I dogged both sides. The Obamites are just further ahead in the line that the Sarahitites.
.
The fact that Dubya's tenure ended when it did was just yet another fortune that Fate granted him.
Utah consistently ranks as the state with the happiest people in the US. Those mormons are way too cheery.